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On December 20 2012 18:00 sciberbia wrote:My lynch candidates, from most suspicious to least suspicious: 1) Mr. Wiggles 2) debears 3) zelblade
Mr. WigglesMy earlier point about him coming back into the thread without any scumreads still stands. The 5-hour gap in his posts reinforces my suspicion that he was not scumhunting: 04:28 --- Wiggles makes post about Eywa that I found suspicious 04:54-5:37 --- Wiggles makes a series of relatively insignificant posts 05:51 --- I explain that I'm suspicious of Wiggles for not pushing scumreads 10:37 --- Wiggles responds with his scumreads I thought his points about Zelblade and Vivax were reasonable. However, I didn't like what he said about Palmer (or more precisely how he said it): + Show Spoiler +
I'm not really liking Palmar's play either right now. I tend to agree with a decent amount of what Eywa said, and his recent posting isn't comforting. It seems mostly like he just wants WBG to take the lead. For example, instead of just voting for me, he asks WBG why we aren't lynching me, which I don't like. I'm not sure if I want to lynch him yet though, because I think Palmar's scum a lot of the time on Day 1, but I've found that if I give it an extra day or so, he's either able to show he's town, or you can just kill him because he's scum. That's held true in the past.
Also, he must be Santa Claus. He lives in the North, and spends all his time making lists and checking off who's been naughty or nice.
I think this is wishy-washy, non-committal, and fluffy. See the parts I bolded. Wiggles seems so unsure of what he thinks about Palmar that I don't see the town motivation for him posting anything about Palmar at all.
That reads as non-committal, because it's non-committal, hahahaha.
If you read, I say I don't know if I want to lynch him right now. The reasons for this being that he can be a good scumhunter, and that I have a tendency to think he's scum on Day 1, but that suspicion is either absolved or concreted the further we get into the game. I know what I think about Palmar, it's at the bottom of the post. IGMEOY, I've Got My Eye On You. Means that I'm watching the guy because I think he's suspicious, more so than other people.
Why wouldn't I share my two scum-reads, and then my strongest suspicion? You don't make any sense.
On December 20 2012 18:33 Palmar wrote:
Not to mention, since I'm sharing all my town reads and you think I'm probably scum, how do you think I would intend to back away from all these town reads when I would need to lynch the people I've given solid explanation of why I think are town?
That's pretty easy. Oh no, this guy we mislynched on Day 1 flipped town, guess I must be wrong about X. Y, you made a case against him, I agree with it. Let's lynch X now!
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Also, I sound political because I don't feel like needlessly pissing people off. The only one I felt like doing that towards was iamperfection, because he looks like he acts like a dick. I'm careful with my wording, because I'm looking for certain reactions. It's better to say something like, "Hey, Eywa, I noticed something strange about your post. Could you explain your thought process?", than, "Hey, Eywa! INCONSISTENCIES. TIME TO DIE, ASSHOLE!".
Which one of those is more likely to make someone you're probing clam up and not talk to you?
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Also, where is zelblade? Is he just lying low, because then people will forget about him and not lynch him? If he lives through the lynch, I bet he shows up within a couple hours of the night post with some stupid excuses and promises to act better in the future (hint, he won't).
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I'd really like to know what kind of post WBG did so far that made Palmar think we shouldn't lynch him btw.
He's useless.
He's insulting for the sake of being insulting (well yeah I agree that's not indicating a mafia alignment nor a town alignment at all when talking about bugs).
I still think he faked reaction-fishing as he is utterly uninterested in any results he could have gotten out of it by sabotaging it himself, which obviously makes me think he just wants to look like someone doing "stuff".
The posts that look like he's doing something are generally really poorly done, usually targeting some random new guy telling them they are bad and what they did isn't good if the guy in question should be town. Guess what, that's what both newbie townies and newbie mafias do.
Posts like + Show Spoiler [click me] +On December 20 2012 03:11 wherebugsgo wrote:actually fuck morbidius, that last post by zelblade was much worse. ##unvote
##vote ZelbladeShow nested quote +On December 20 2012 02:36 zelblade wrote:Regarding eywa, I do find him pretty suspicious. First is obviously the roleplaying, and there are also a couple of posts I find questionable.+ Show Spoiler +I would like to examine the current situation and weigh in on mathematics. Generally speaking, there is a 75% or higher chance that if we kill someone on the first day that we will end up in a worse predicament than we currently are. I understand that our streets have been taken over by scum at night, but fear is not a reason to lose all our civil rights and obligations. As a productive member of society and an established citizen of this town, I plead that we take it easy today and allow our local police force to run their investigations before we strike. I presume that this is an attempt to get us to no-lynch. (Correct me if I am wrong) I generally do not agree with a no-lynch as it is a waste of a day, but merely suggesting so obviously isnt scummy. What I do not like though is that he simply mentions it in passing, gets shot down by iamperfection and never mentions it again. If he believes that a no lynch would be beneficial for town, why doesnt he attempt to push for one but merely just bring it up once? Seems possible that he is trying to derail the thread into lynch vs no lynch but decides to just back out. + Show Spoiler +Well, I was pretty drunk last night as I was out late at the Tavern... As I wander home, I stumbled and fell... A strange figure walked out from the shadows, though I could not make out his face, I dare not show myself as he seemed rather keen on making sure no one was about. I think he might be planning something... I could only guess at this point, but the figure kind of seemed similar to that of debears, I can't say for sure.
My head is spinning a little bit now that I think of it, it was a little too much action for me last night. However, I did see sciberbia and iamperfection at the Tavern as well, so I doubt they have anything to do with it. This post is also pretty problematic imo. I assume that he is saying that he feels that sciberbia & iamprefection are town and that dbears is scum. I dont understand why he would decide to post his reads randomly as town. As mentioned by toad, these reads serve no purpose without any reasoning behind them. Furthermore, it does not seem that he intends to push dbears at all - so why mention that he thinks dbears is scummy? That said though, I kind of doubt that scum would have the balls to pull something like this as it draws alot of attention and it is somewhat likely that he would get lynched for it. Leaning scum slightly for now, will wait for his case on whoever.Stutters is another person I find suspicious. I generally agree with Vivax's case on him. Also find his accusation onto Mordbidus kind of wierd, as it seemed pretty clear to me that it obviously wasnt a scumslip and thus not a legit accusation. Could be trying to pull attention of himself? bolded all the kinds of things bad scum (like zelblade) like saying. I specifically recall that zelblade is like this as scum. In addition, note the complete lack of a vote, and, in general, spine.
Does anyone here think that's a decent post WBG did? Sure he has a point but it's not enough for what I'm expecting from someone like WBG at all.
All he's doing is pointing out bad play and WBG is able to do that as both mafia and town because guess what, there's bad play in pretty much every townie. It is however an incredibly easy way to look like you're doing something while you're not.
TL;DR:
So yeah. I'd really like to know what makes Palmar think WBG is town right now.
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Posting on phone. I can't be here tonight. Please don't push the lynch off wiggles. There will be hell to pay if I come back to a townie lynch.
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so much for that I guess. Let's hope WBG is SK and Wiggles is mafia or the other way around.
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On December 21 2012 04:25 Palmar wrote:
Posting on phone. I can't be here tonight. Please don't push the lynch off wiggles. There will be hell to pay if I come back to a townie lynch.
Those are two contradictory statements.
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Fuck this game, you can all lynch whoever. Wiggles will probably flip town.
I'll be back around night.
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On December 21 2012 04:30 wherebugsgo wrote:
Fuck this game, you can all lynch whoever. Wiggles will probably flip town.
I'll be back around night.
That's reassuring.
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On December 21 2012 04:27 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Show nested quote +On December 21 2012 04:25 Palmar wrote:
Posting on phone. I can't be here tonight. Please don't push the lynch off wiggles. There will be hell to pay if I come back to a townie lynch. Those are two contradictory statements.
let's assume you flip town. Do we wrath-lynch Palmar or WBG?
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On December 21 2012 04:31 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On December 21 2012 04:27 Mr. Wiggles wrote:On December 21 2012 04:25 Palmar wrote:
Posting on phone. I can't be here tonight. Please don't push the lynch off wiggles. There will be hell to pay if I come back to a townie lynch. Those are two contradictory statements. let's assume you flip town. Do we wrath-lynch Palmar or WBG?
You kill Palmar if he keeps playing how he's playing and doesn't start to provide original scum reads that contain actual reasoning. I don't see a reason to kill WBG right now. If his play take a nose-dive, sure, but barring that, between the two, you kill Palmar unless he shapes up.
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Also, are people actually planning on being around before the lynch, or can I look forward to talking to myself for 5 hours?
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Cool. What are your thoughts on Vivax? Do you agree with what I wrote about him? Do you think he's scum?
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On December 21 2012 04:35 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Also, are people actually planning on being around before the lynch, or can I look forward to talking to myself for 5 hours?
im always around lynch time.
which if someone could covert to est i would appreciate.
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It's 4 hours from now. That makes it 7PM EST
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On December 21 2012 04:48 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Cool. What are your thoughts on Vivax? Do you agree with what I wrote about him? Do you think he's scum?
he's someone I never played with before so I'm ignoring him d1 for lynches and will take a closer look at him around d2 or d3 to have a proper sample-size.
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Remember when I asked about wether we should Wrath-Lynch into WBG or Palmar if you really flip town?
Your answer was this one:
On December 21 2012 04:34 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Show nested quote +On December 21 2012 04:31 Toadesstern wrote:On December 21 2012 04:27 Mr. Wiggles wrote:On December 21 2012 04:25 Palmar wrote:
Posting on phone. I can't be here tonight. Please don't push the lynch off wiggles. There will be hell to pay if I come back to a townie lynch. Those are two contradictory statements. let's assume you flip town. Do we wrath-lynch Palmar or WBG? You kill Palmar if he keeps playing how he's playing and doesn't start to provide original scum reads that contain actual reasoning. I don't see a reason to kill WBG right now. If his play take a nose-dive, sure, but barring that, between the two, you kill Palmar unless he shapes up.
You don't see a reason to lynch WBG.
You want to lynch Palmar if he keeps on playing the way he does, which means you think he's scummy but you're at least unsure about it.
I don't think you ever mentioned me so far.
Do you think the four of us are all town? I know this is C9++ and while hosts usually balance out the vets / new guys somewhat this most likely is not the case for this game because it's so heavily based on randomization, but do you really think all 4 of us being town is a likely scenario according to your reads?
Not asking about set-up speculation or the "well there's got to be a mafia within the VETS, right?" argument I love to use myself at all. It just strikes me as odd that you're not really that much into pushing any of us.
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11589 Posts
There is a hell of a lot of lynch derailing going on right now. You guys sure are saying a lot of stuff that isn't about the person you're voting for.
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On December 21 2012 05:22 Toadesstern wrote:Remember when I asked about wether we should Wrath-Lynch into WBG or Palmar if you really flip town? Your answer was this one: Show nested quote +On December 21 2012 04:34 Mr. Wiggles wrote:On December 21 2012 04:31 Toadesstern wrote:On December 21 2012 04:27 Mr. Wiggles wrote:On December 21 2012 04:25 Palmar wrote:
Posting on phone. I can't be here tonight. Please don't push the lynch off wiggles. There will be hell to pay if I come back to a townie lynch. Those are two contradictory statements. let's assume you flip town. Do we wrath-lynch Palmar or WBG? You kill Palmar if he keeps playing how he's playing and doesn't start to provide original scum reads that contain actual reasoning. I don't see a reason to kill WBG right now. If his play take a nose-dive, sure, but barring that, between the two, you kill Palmar unless he shapes up. You don't see a reason to lynch WBG. You want to lynch Palmar if he keeps on playing the way he does, which means you think he's scummy but you're at least unsure about it. I don't think you ever mentioned me so far. Do you think the four of us are all town? I know this is C9++ and while hosts usually balance out the vets / new guys somewhat this most likely is not the case for this game because it's so heavily based on randomization, but do you really think all 4 of us being town is a likely scenario according to your reads? Not asking about set-up speculation or the "well there's got to be a mafia within the VETS, right?" argument I love to use myself at all. It just strikes me as odd that you're not really that much into pushing any of us.
I have no idea how the hosts would balance. I don't know the relative skill levels of half the people in the game, and whether they've been playing for four months, or if this is their first game. I don't know how the hosts would balance the game with regards to myself considering I haven't played actively for about 5 months, and have barely looked at the forum for the last 4 months.
So, balance considerations based on veterancy don't come to my mind, since I don't know who's considered a vet or not anymore.
As for all four of us being town, no I don't think so. I don't think WBG is scum, I'm leaning scum on Palmar, and you I'm neutral on. So, it's not like I think that you and WBG are the towniest townies to ever town and that I'm neutral on Palmar.
Palmar's someone I've been watching, and he's getting worse and worse. The fun part is that I call him out on not pushing any lynches strongly, and it's only after that point that he starts pushing a lynch strongly, and it comes on so strongly it's almost like an OMGUS.
Also, him pushing my lynch isn't based around discussion of a case, it's based around him trying to bully people into voting me. Look at how he's getting people to vote for me. He's not appealing to any sort of reasoning or case, he's just spamming, "Vote for Wiggles!", and then he leaves with a threat that you'd better not unvote me.
That's not townie behaviour, it's scum play. He's not relying on a case against me, he's making an attack and bullying everyone into going along with him. Also notice how I'm one of the few people not sheeping along with him and one of the only people who actually thinks that Palmar needs to be analyzed, and that after stating that, I become his #1 target and a priority to kill. He's trying to kill his dissenters right now. Dictator Palmar for life.
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EPT
