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Acrofales
Spain18044 Posts
On December 12 2012 10:12 iamperfection wrote: If hope uses his ability on lavos willi there be a next cycle? Well, hope cannot use his ability on lavos next cycle, he has to hit himself first. So unless someone else can do 200 damage more than they did today, there will be 3 cycles. | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
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syllogism
Finland5948 Posts
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TheChronicler
Macedonia260 Posts
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syllogism
Finland5948 Posts
Who were the ones who claim to have damaged lavos last cycle? Hapa, Kita, Me, maybe Oats? | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18044 Posts
Assuming I don't get roleblocked and Toad has no healing shenanigans, and assuming Toad was revived with full health, I need 125 damage from town to kill Toad next cycle. However, let me argue for Syllo's proposal of damaging Toad tonight. Town will be doing 475 or 500 damage to Lavos, depending on whether Adam (or someone else) is scum or not, without even using any abilities. That means town has to deal 150 damage to Lavos in addition to the damage that will be heading his way regardless. 1. I will be doing 75 damage to Lavos tonight, because Dark Matter is my only nuke other than Black Hole (and it takes 3 targets: Toad, Lavos and myself). 2. H1 will be able to do 400 damage to Lavos tomorrow 3. Kita can Luminaire, whatever that does 4. Hapa can shoot for 100. 5. Syllo can do 150 damage. That means Syllo and H1 alone can take out Lavos, I am going to assume Kita can too. Hapa and I together can take out Lavos. Furthermore, if Toad dies, I can aim all my damage at Lavos, 100 of which is guaranteed to hit regardless of roleblocks. Given all of this, I don't think it's possible to miss out on killing Lavos tomorrow regardless of what we do today, however it is very possible to miss out on killing Toad tomorrow if we don't aim at him today. All it takes is one unfortunate roleblock. So please help me  125 damage means I can take out Toad if I don't get roleblocked ever. 325 damage means I can take out Toad if I get roleblocked tomorrow, but not today. Therefore if town can help me with 325 damage I will know tomorrow whether I can guarantee a Toad kill. Once again, assuming Toad was revived at full health and there are no healing shenanigans.If Toad did not respawn at full health, there's a chance he will die tonight, allowing me to aim all my damage at Lavos together with you guys. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18044 Posts
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Adam4167
Australia1426 Posts
Don't know why you'd think me scum at this point. If I were scum, i'd have lined my god damned predictions up with the night kills and shot a half dozen times by now =/ | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
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Adam4167
Australia1426 Posts
On December 12 2012 09:37 Acrofales wrote: Fairy certain Adam just claimed scum here. Here's the post in which austin claimed his actions for the first time ever: + Show Spoiler [austin's roleclaim] + On December 06 2012 02:10 austinmcc wrote: I can't account for the roleblocks or any missing actions. My role is different depending on the time period, but none of them match up.
If multiple people hit me in the same cycle, it's split amongst them.
Cycle 6 I shielded Syllo. Didn't know everyone's health values, dienosaur was dead before the end of cycle, and out of the people that were being treated as confirmed town, syllo seemed the strongest player to me. Cycle 7 I didn't do anything. Considered counterattacking Adam, making sure he was responsible for the damage on me like he claimed, but nobody counterclaimed the damage. Adam said he wasn't going to keep shooting me, so I figured best not to hit him. One reason I prefer cycles where a lot of people have items/abilities/something waiting for them is that those are the cycles that are useful. I guess I can use End of Time to check a player's HP or two, make sure they're not lying, but otherwise healing/shielding sounds way more useful than an HP check. Especially given that now it's kind of telegraphed. This is after it could have happened, thus there is no way you could have expected it to happen. You might have found it weird after the fact, but you couldn't have known beforehand that austin was capable of counterattacking unless you are scum. Therefore this is you making a mistake when fabricating what you should have thought at the time, ergo scum. Additionally, the night actions make no sense. N1 - N6 are okay. N7: why guess Iamp when Clarity just took a shitload of damage and you guessed him the night before, while Iamp took 0 damage? N8: austinmcc was nowhere in the picture yet. Why pick austin? N9: if you picked austin on N9 and he died in D10, then you got it right, didn't you? N10: phagga died at the end of D9, why on EARTH would you guess phagga on N10? It is completely senseless. Oh, and I didn't find this. Syllo gets full credit for wondering how weirdly illogical your night guesses were. I just assumed you could shoot and guess on the same night, and you hadn't claimed your N10 action. Thanks for explaining and claiming scum not thinking his claim through. You get to join the illustrious company of risk, austin and SnB. Right, I've figured out where the problem is. My guess order was: 1) Syllogism 2) Dieno 3) Toadesstern (this one was valid until the end of N4, when we lynched him) so this was the correct guess. 4) I submitted to Greymist - If toad survives this lynch, then predict toad. If toad dies, shoot Zboson. I shot Zboson on N4, not night 5, go back and reread it, I claim it at the time, right after the day post. 5) Clarity 6) Iamperfection 7) austin 8) austin 9) phagga Does that make a little more sense now? | ||
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Adam4167
Australia1426 Posts
On December 12 2012 22:17 kitaman27 wrote: I dealt 250 last night. We can add up the total kp output to determine the number of town players remaining if everyone claims their damage. Good idea - no surprise, zero here. | ||
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syllogism
Finland5948 Posts
On December 12 2012 22:17 kitaman27 wrote: I dealt 250 last night. We can add up the total kp output to determine the number of town players remaining if everyone claims their damage. Something is wrong then. Us two + 10 townies adds up to 850 damage, which would mean Hapa is the liar here if Oats punched lavos for 50 damage. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18044 Posts
On December 12 2012 22:31 syllogism wrote: Something is wrong then. Us two + 10 townies adds up to 850 damage, which would mean Hapa is the liar here if Oats punched lavos for 50 damage. 10 townied doesn't make sense. There's 14 people alive. 14 - Toad - me = 12. If there is some secret scummer, that's 11. Seems likely that Hapa nor Oats did damage (and if you read Oats' latest posts it seems quite likely he has just afk'd out of the game) | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18044 Posts
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Acrofales
Spain18044 Posts
On December 12 2012 22:20 Adam4167 wrote: Right, I've figured out where the problem is. My guess order was: 1) Syllogism 2) Dieno 3) Toadesstern (this one was valid until the end of N4, when we lynched him) so this was the correct guess. 4) I submitted to Greymist - If toad survives this lynch, then predict toad. If toad dies, shoot Zboson. I shot Zboson on N4, not night 5, go back and reread it, I claim it at the time, right after the day post. 5) Clarity 6) Iamperfection 7) austin 8) austin 9) phagga Does that make a little more sense now? Okay, I guess this makes sense. Your guesses still seem rather strange. Why never guess CaveJohnson, when it was clear the world was gunning for him? How come you predicted austin and phagga, as if you knew there were 4 lynches in a row? If you were gambling on lynches, why not risk.nuke in that first one? But I guess suboptimal play doesn't make you scum and even if we assume you were scum, and you didn't shoot Zbo, I still cannot explain why Zbo didn't counterattack Oats. So whichever way we spin that, the lack of counterattack is weirder on Zbo's side than on yours. Also, there seems to be damage missing on Lavos, so that makes Hapa more likely scum. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18044 Posts
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Acrofales
Spain18044 Posts
On D4 there WAS no lynch, it was a party selection and Toad survived the whole cycle, to be lynched in cycle 5. Therefore, you CANNOT have gotten a shot in cycle 4. Nor do you claim the shot in cycle 4, but rather in cycle 5. Cycle 5 started December 1, 08:59 forumtime You claimed the shot on December 1, 12:27 forumtime Also, there is no way Greymist accepts conditional actions or makes roles that require you to send in conditional actions. | ||
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Adam4167
Australia1426 Posts
Read my filter, I wasn't entirely sold on the risk.nuke lynch, heck I stayed up til the middle of the night waiting to hear him out, hoping that he might prove me wrong and be useful. To be honest, I coloured CaveJohnson in blue in my spreadsheet (the colour of 'this person should be ignored) on about day 2 and just completely ignored his existence. Remember, i'm having to predict stuff a cycle in advance, its hard to gauge what town sentiment will be 48 hours after that point, especially since I don't get to see the current days lynch before my guess for the next cycle. | ||
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Adam4167
Australia1426 Posts
cycle 5 also cycle 5 I give up trying to explain this. This role has literally done my head in all game and probably needs to be re-tuned somewhat if its going to be used in future games. I'm town, but I understand how crazy this role is sounding, so imma just stop trying, Kita, roleblock me again for everyone's peace of mind. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18044 Posts
 Anyway, I agree that your explanation of the role is giving me a headache. You're either scum making a brainteaser out of your fakeclaim or town with an impossibly convoluted role. I give up trying to figure out which and am focusing on Hapa. He seems to be the crux of the missing damage on Lavos. | ||
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