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We could do like this:
1. Doc, please counterclaim!
a) Counterclaim happens: we lynch scum Oats and lose our doc.
b) If counterclaim doesn't happen, proceed to 2.
2. JK, please counterclaim!
a) Counterclaim happens: we lynch Oats (who might still be doc)
b) Counterclaim doesn't happen: we have confirmed Oats
Scenario 1: Oats is doc
a) We have a JK: we've outed our JK and we've mislynched our doc (lol)
b) We don't have a JK: we have confirmed Oats
Scenario 2: Oats is scum
c) We have doc: we've outed our doc and lynched scum Oats
d) We have a JK: we've outed our JK and lynched scum Oats
a) is stricly dominated by just lynching Oats
b) is good
c) is stricly dominated by just lynching Oats
d) is stricly dominated by just lynching Oats
Conclusion: JK claiming seems bad
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We can't fucking get away from lynching Oats.
Please speak to me!
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Unless we wanna settle with doc and not JK counterclaiming. But in that case if we have no counterclaim, we have to accept the risk of there either being 1) a JK blocking the NK or 2) a JK blocking scums night action.
Can we really live with that risk?
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On November 30 2012 02:03 HeloKnight wrote:
Oh, you mean that just lynching Oats would be better.
Yes.
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Am I missing somehing? Where did everyone go?
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Seriously, in lack of a breadcrumb AND with how scummy Oats has been, how is this not a no-brainer lycnh?
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On November 30 2012 02:14 Kickstart wrote:
I already admitted I am bad at following this kind of argument about role possibilities and such, but I agree that Oats has been scummy and that him claiming blue does nothing in terms of making any of his actions any less scummy but I am having a really hard time justifying lynching a claimed blue when there is no evidence that he is lying about it. Can you maybe more succinctly say why just lynching him is the best option - because I am not following you and am hesitant about doing something like that.
I don't think I can make it easier than this:
Exhibit A: Why we don't want just doc to counterclaim.
On November 30 2012 01:54 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
We could do like this:
1. Doc, please counterclaim!
a) Counterclaim happens: we lynch scum Oats and lose our doc.
b) If counterclaim doesn't happen, proceed to 2.
2. JK, please counterclaim!
a) Counterclaim happens: we lynch Oats (who might still be doc)
b) Counterclaim doesn't happen: we have confirmed Oats
Scenario 1: Oats is doc
a) We have a JK: we've outed our JK and we've mislynched our doc (lol)
b) We don't have a JK: we have confirmed Oats
Scenario 2: Oats is scum
c) We have doc: we've outed our doc and lynched scum Oats
d) We have a JK: we've outed our JK and lynched scum Oats
a) is stricly dominated by just lynching Oats
b) is good
c) is stricly dominated by just lynching Oats
d) is stricly dominated by just lynching Oats
Conclusion: JK claiming seems bad
Exhibit B: Why we don't want to counterclaim with doc but not JK
On November 30 2012 02:04 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
Unless we wanna settle with doc but not JK counterclaiming. But in that case if we have no doc counterclaim we have to assume Oat is doc AND we have to accept the risk of there either being a JK that 1) blocked the NK or 2) blocked scum's night action. If that's the case, Oats' claim can still be fake
1. We don't want both doc and JK to counterclaim.
2. We don't want just doc to counterclaim
Conclusion: We don't want to counterclaim, we want to lynch Oats
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Does it really though? Did everyone lose interest? Where's "OMG we have scum hunt" Yamato?
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On November 30 2012 02:11 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
Seriously, in lack of a breadcrumb AND with how scummy Oats has been, how is this not a no-brainer lycnh?
No I have to stick to this.
On November 29 2012 23:42 Oatsmaster wrote:
Since the votes dont look like moving,
Ima gonna claim.
I am a Doctor
I healed SDM n1 because he was my best townread.
I didnt breadcrumb because I couldnt really make it subtle.
I mean, how is he even making this argument? He couldn't make it subtle? It's super fucking easy to make at least some kind of breadcrumb. The claim is super convenient. He's been scummy. Besides I'm soon off to bed and don't know who last-minute-switch to anyway.
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On November 30 2012 05:54 Aquanim wrote:Show nested quote +On November 30 2012 01:14 JacobStrangelove wrote:
Also if we lynch oats and he is doctor we lose sdm (or aqua if sdm is an amazing scum) Aqua sdm scum team guys (lol) <-- if that happens I would officially quit life. I've been thinking the same thing about you and sonic. :/ Also, I'm pretty sure we can have two doctors... though it would be pretty silly. Could there be two doctors in this setup?
This possibility seems to be specifically indicated in the preliminaries to the role list, but since noone else is considering it I'll check.
Possible like iamp says, but highly unlikely.
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On November 30 2012 06:00 yamato77 wrote:
Alright last post before I head to work.
I suggest to the rest of my townie buddies that you look for someone else today. My time is going to be limited Friday and Saturday due to previous commitments. Tonight I will come back and do some real hard reads on people's filters to try to make more sense of this game.
I think my criteria of town being unsure of itself this game is one to REALLY consider. Mafia has done a good job sowing extra layers of doubt in people's heads about allegiances. This is a vague criteria to look for but something to consider when reading people for tone.
So scum is pretending to be confident in their reads in order to sow confusion? I feel like I've been one of the most confused AND confusing players in this game. The only thing I seem to have been able to establish is my own townieness.
Don't get me wrong, players who seems to deliberately sow confusion is scummy. Sometimes being confused yourself will sow confusion.
Jesus Christ, this post is confusing.
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On November 30 2012 06:13 Aquanim wrote:
I can't see us having more than two power roles, and (probably) not less than two either. If they all claim, and we ended up with three including Oats that would be an effective counterclaim. Having all the PRs claim seems pretty ridiculous though, and I don't think it's worth it.
I can't distinguish anything Oats has done since my vote between "oh crap, I'm doctor about to be lynched" and "oh crap, I'm scum about to be lynched". I reckon his posting quality has improved maybe a little, but that doesn't tell me anything. And claiming doctor and a protect on SDM is about as obvious and easy a fake-claim as claiming VT, esp. without a crumb.
Dammit! If you're a doctor, I'm really sorry, but I just. can't. tell. And I still have no better reads, and I still think this read won't improve.
Vote sticks. I have 5 minutes before I have to leave, and I won't be back before lynch. In the event of a massclaim, which I do not endorse, it may be possible for me to leave a message with someone and have them post it.
Now this is a weird post. Not only is it a silly idea, which you seem to understand, but it ends with the implication that you may be blue. Why even bring this up since you know it's a silly idea?
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On November 30 2012 06:25 yamato77 wrote:Show nested quote +On November 30 2012 06:12 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:On November 30 2012 06:00 yamato77 wrote:
Alright last post before I head to work.
I suggest to the rest of my townie buddies that you look for someone else today. My time is going to be limited Friday and Saturday due to previous commitments. Tonight I will come back and do some real hard reads on people's filters to try to make more sense of this game.
I think my criteria of town being unsure of itself this game is one to REALLY consider. Mafia has done a good job sowing extra layers of doubt in people's heads about allegiances. This is a vague criteria to look for but something to consider when reading people for tone. So scum is pretending to be confident in their reads in order to sow confusion? I feel like I've been one of the most confused AND confusing players in this game. The only thing I seem to have been able to establish is my own townieness. Don't get me wrong, players who seems to deliberately sow confusion is scummy. Sometimes being confused yourself will sow confusion. Jesus Christ, this post is confusing. Dude I am going to say the same thing I said to Jacob because you have posted like him since halfway through D1. I know this game is difficult and all but using the thread as your personal idea checker isn't helping anyone. Figure out what you think scum's plan was this game. Look for people who have acted like you think scum would act. All these self-esteem issues you're having with your reads is beginning to make me think you might not be so townie after all. You haven't pushed a single case all game. You dropped your (bad) case on CC the INSTANT he responded to it. Since then you have done little else but basically sheep yourself on other people's cases and post every little minute thought about the game you've had in the thread. Shape up.
Not entirely true but a fair message. I need to keep my posts shorter and put in more work again. I've been lazy D2 because I totally convinced myself that Oats is scum. D2 for me became a wait for his flip.
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On November 30 2012 06:28 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:Show nested quote +On November 30 2012 06:13 Aquanim wrote:
I can't see us having more than two power roles, and (probably) not less than two either. If they all claim, and we ended up with three including Oats that would be an effective counterclaim. Having all the PRs claim seems pretty ridiculous though, and I don't think it's worth it.
I can't distinguish anything Oats has done since my vote between "oh crap, I'm doctor about to be lynched" and "oh crap, I'm scum about to be lynched". I reckon his posting quality has improved maybe a little, but that doesn't tell me anything. And claiming doctor and a protect on SDM is about as obvious and easy a fake-claim as claiming VT, esp. without a crumb.
Dammit! If you're a doctor, I'm really sorry, but I just. can't. tell. And I still have no better reads, and I still think this read won't improve.
Vote sticks. I have 5 minutes before I have to leave, and I won't be back before lynch. In the event of a massclaim, which I do not endorse, it may be possible for me to leave a message with someone and have them post it. Now this is a weird post. Not only is it a silly idea, which you seem to understand, but it ends with the implication that you may be blue. Why even bring this up since you know it's a silly idea?
Me? Because it seemed like a deliberate message that no one could miss.
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On November 30 2012 06:51 yamato77 wrote:
ok seriously last post from my phone before I clock in at work. Someone should look at SDM. A lot of us have read him as town and why? He has posted a LOT this game but I can't really recall much in the way of pushing reads or making real cases.
FoS: Sonic Death Monkey
On the topic of sowing confusion.
Seriously, "someone should" look at SDM"? How about you do it?
You just made a post where you said people should look into people sowing confusion?
The only case you've made is against CC. When I asked why you dropped it, that case too was just not because he was a top scum read, but you "posted the case more to point out that his actions were suspicious and needed reading into".
You just throw out random suspicion but don't follow up on them AT ALL. I think someone should look into that and that someone will be me.
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Hmm I'm reading Yamato's filter while watching IPL. He was one of the players I would look into tomorrow anyway (who I'll look into depends a bit on the Oats flip though). I will summarize my thoughts, hopefully later tonight. One thing that struck me as a bit weird wrt my last post on him:
I definitely wouldn't outsource making reads on my top suspicions to other players in this game. If you're legitimately confused as to who's town and scum, which he supposedly is, why would you say something like that? Especially this was true for me when I was in paranoia mode, which I've kind of gotten back into after Oats claim.
Seriously, that's the last thought on my mind and it comes off as scummy to me. I and many others have pressured other players to make cases on their top scum reads, Yamato on the other hand is pressuring (or at least suggesting) that others should make cases on his supposed top suspicions. I can't recall anyone else acting like this in the thread. Yamato himself basically hasn't made one single case.
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On November 30 2012 08:12 Oatsmaster wrote:
I guess this is why this is a newbie game, where you lynch an uncontested blue claim FOR NO REASON OTHER THAN THERE IS NO ONE ELSE.
The reason why I claimed so early was to give you guys time to scumhunt instead of speculating.
I'm sorry man, if you're really doc there's is no way for us to find out. The fact that there isn't a counterclaim doesn't matter much. Since JK RBs doesn't get notified, even if we have no counterclaim (so far we haven't even asked[ for one) there could just as well have been a JK who blocked the NK. This has been explained.
Also, you need to look at your own play. Are we supposed to believe you didn't leave a breadcrumb because it was too difficult? That ridiculous. And playing with your reckless style in general isn't something I would expect from a blue, that's silly.
The fact that you're lashing out on us now makes me feel your claim is fake. How could you possibly not see that if you're doc you have put us in a shitty situation?
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On November 30 2012 08:21 yamato77 wrote:
posting from work because this game is distracting me. I'm not saying you are evil necessarily, but again I feel like my actions thus far have gone nowhere so I'm beginning to change my entire perspective on this game. I am definitely not calling you scum, I'm just announcing my intent to dig into your play because I feel like I'be given you a pass th home game for no good reason.
I say I can't remember you making your own cases but that doesn't mean that you haven't at all. I ask others to look because I don't have the time on my phone at work to do so.
Well, I was the one putting forward the arguments for your wagon D1, you if anyone ought to know that. Doesn't really matter though, you've motivated me to start putting in more work which is a good thing.
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On November 30 2012 08:26 Oatsmaster wrote:
So I shouldve just let you guys mislynch me?
I breadcrumb like, I healing SDM?
I really couldnt think of 1.
Isnt that why its good play as blue? so that scum are totally not suspicious of me.
No, if you're doc your claim is fine (or at least what I likely would've done, it's hard for you to know the feeling of the remaining players and how difficult it will be to stop the lynch). If you're scum it's definitely a good play though, because it can force a claim.
I might as well let the cat out of the bag on that one now. That's the reason I got pissed of at Kicks and asked him if he was scum. His reaction to your claim felt unnatural to me. He got pissed off AND seemed to say the claim, even if real, was bad play. I didn't get pissed at all and thought it would've been the obvious play if Oats was doc. I got shocked and pretty excited to find out what was going. Even though bad for town claims like that adds to the excitement of the game. It felt to me like Kicks was scum trying to emulate townie emotions.
Now admittedly I'm sure even among townies reactions can be different. If you're townie and you were around for the claim, think about what emotion it induced in you.
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EPT
