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Mario Mini Mafia - Page 151

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Blazinghand *
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States25552 Posts
November 19 2012 04:06 GMT
#3001
actually you know what I really can't criticize at this point, the setup analysis makes me confirmed town but really I could have figured that out when I said "hey guys there are 3 blues" like a million days ago.

But yeah S&B lynch today imo
When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back.
TL+ Member
Hopeless1der
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States5836 Posts
November 19 2012 04:21 GMT
#3002
On November 19 2012 12:59 Djodref wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 19 2012 12:45 iamperfection wrote:
On November 19 2012 12:44 Djodref wrote:
On November 19 2012 12:36 iamperfection wrote:
On November 19 2012 12:28 Djodref wrote:
Shit guys, are you actually voting me for this ?
I admit I didn't explain it well but I don't think its a good reason to vote for someone...

On a side note, I think that our setup is MVCCDTT. This is what makes the most sense right now and S&B should know it as well. I'm totally dropping BH now.

But if there is another blue, he has to claim noaw imo.

so no sk then right


Yeah no SK in this case. We just have to find the last scum and we know for sure that he is not Hope and not BH.
We still have 3 lynch to find him. It's too bad that debears couldn't confirm anyone else at the exception of the confirmed vig because it would almost have been GG right now then.

If there is still one blue, I want him to claim now or I'm going to auto-vote him after.


look at me setup speculate like a boss


Was that sarcasm ?
My plan was quite good but I didn't take into account the Cop (I thought the cop was you when Z-Bo referred to the Cop for the first time, I thought that you had checked thrawn or BH N1) would not bring us confirmed townies with him.
I'm quite impressed by this snipe from the mafia player and I didn't see it coming.
But things should be easier now.
Iamp, DP, Clarity, Kickstart, S&B
The last scum is hiding among these players if I'm right about the setup. We have 3 shots to find him. Easy enough imo

My current choices, as highlighted. SnB first it would seem.
To bed for realzies this time
iamperfection
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States9644 Posts
November 19 2012 05:00 GMT
#3003
On November 19 2012 12:59 Djodref wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 19 2012 12:45 iamperfection wrote:
On November 19 2012 12:44 Djodref wrote:
On November 19 2012 12:36 iamperfection wrote:
On November 19 2012 12:28 Djodref wrote:
Shit guys, are you actually voting me for this ?
I admit I didn't explain it well but I don't think its a good reason to vote for someone...

On a side note, I think that our setup is MVCCDTT. This is what makes the most sense right now and S&B should know it as well. I'm totally dropping BH now.

But if there is another blue, he has to claim noaw imo.

so no sk then right


Yeah no SK in this case. We just have to find the last scum and we know for sure that he is not Hope and not BH.
We still have 3 lynch to find him. It's too bad that debears couldn't confirm anyone else at the exception of the confirmed vig because it would almost have been GG right now then.

If there is still one blue, I want him to claim now or I'm going to auto-vote him after.


look at me setup speculate like a boss


Was that sarcasm ?
My plan was quite good but I didn't take into account the Cop (I thought the cop was you when Z-Bo referred to the Cop for the first time, I thought that you had checked thrawn or BH N1) would not bring us confirmed townies with him.
I'm quite impressed by this snipe from the mafia player and I didn't see it coming.
But things should be easier now.
Iamp, DP, Clarity, Kickstart, S&B
The last scum is hiding among these players if I'm right about the setup. We have 3 shots to find him. Easy enough imo

wait a sec could you clear this up once and for all. when did you figure out who the cop was?
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=406168&currentpage=78#1551
iamperfection
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States9644 Posts
November 19 2012 05:01 GMT
#3004
also that was a joke.........
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=406168&currentpage=78#1551
Djodref
Profile Joined September 2012
France3332 Posts
November 19 2012 05:20 GMT
#3005
@ iamp

Yeah, jokes and internet ^^ I was not offended anyway

So, let me be clear this time

On November 18 2012 13:09 Djodref wrote:
Yeah but it could help us to be sure about BH claim and to know if there is a SK or not and get possible checks from N1 and N2. Don't you think it would be great to help us solve the game ?
Z-Bo thought he found the cop, I think I also found him now and the probabilities indicate that a Cop is more likely than any other roles.

I love math and I would love to solve a game by pure logic !! I think it is really worth it !

I'm getting excited now

At this point, I thought that you (iamp) were the Cop Z-Bo was talking about. I thought that you investigated thrawn or BH N1 because you didn't want to lynch thrawn (after the replacement) and you were categorically opposed to lynch BH.

On November 18 2012 13:49 Djodref wrote:
Well, a mass claim would answer these questions
On top of that, we are likely to have a cop so more confirmed town players in the process.
The downfall is that we are going to out some blue payers but I don't think it really matters at this point. We are likely to be in a 7vs1 situation tomorrow so that mean that a scum would need 3 mislynches to win the game. It is not going to happen at all if we have the blues.

It could be a problem if we have a SK but this is 3 times less likely than a no SK situation and we could start to hunt him if we know for sure that he exists.

This game is all about information. As town, we know already for sure that
  • The mafia team is composed of a GF, a goon and a scum RB
  • We had a miller in this game
  • We have a Vig in this game (for me it's 95% sure that Hope is Vig, I'd like to discuss it if anyone still have doubts)
  • The setup follows the C9++ rules, with Doctors being Jailkeepers and Vigilantes being the only one-shot roles


I'm pretty sure that a mass claim is going to give us enough data to help us win this battle of information
And I think it's easier and faster than to look in details at more than 100 pages long game, and also a more beautiful way to solve this game (but this is personal preference ^^)
I need the VTs to claim as well by the way.

This post also shows that I suspect that there is a Cop. That's why I was quite insistent to convince you (iamp) to participate to the mass claim plan. So I followed your recommendation to scum hunt in a more traditional way. At this time, I had some suspicions regarding debears because of the Z-Bo lynch.

On November 18 2012 18:40 Djodref wrote:
@ debears

Shit, I have just missed you. Anyway, it was a long time ago but I still want have some details about what happened in your head during the exchange between S&B and BH at D2. Especially I want to know why you posted this.

Show nested quote +
On November 17 2012 14:08 Djodref wrote:
On November 17 2012 09:36 debears wrote:
Can we double lynch BH and SnB????


@ debears

Can you explain me this post and your latest vote and unvote against BH in details ?


At this point, I didn't see the crumb and I was preparing a case against debears. I found quite interesting that he gave up his pursuit of Hopeless without considering the possibility for him to be SK too much. That's at this point that I found the crumb. I was not sure of it at all because I was still suspicious of him at this point and I was still thinking that iamp could be the Cop. Also I thought that Z-Bo could have been totally wrong in his Cop read (I know at least that he was wrong about me, and now most likely wrong about BH as well). So I have questions to debears regarding Hopeless...
On November 18 2012 18:50 Djodref wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 18 2012 18:18 debears wrote:
On November 18 2012 17:59 Djodref wrote:
@ debears

I disagree, it could be a good strategy for a possible SK to retain his night kills until we manage to find the last scum.
What does make you think that a possible SK would kill tonight ?


1) Assuming that the SK isn't hopeless, he could put doubt on hopeless' claim.
2) it's what, 8/7 town to 1 scum/sk or 1 scum and sk
3) The longer the game goes on, the harder it is to conceal a guilty conscience/push your agenda as sk/mafia


@ debears

1)That's actually a good point. I don't think that hopeless could be SK even with another kill because he killed Crossfire and that would have been against a SK interest. But I've just realized that there was no way for a SK Hopeless to know for sure that Cross was scum when he decided to kill. By the way, would you yourself doubt Hopeless claim if we have 2 kills again tonight ? I remember that Hopeless was on your radar during D1.
2)That's also a good point. But it depends on the strategy you would choose as a SK. I don't know about it...
3)I disagree with this one because a possible SK would not know who the last scum is better than us. He would have no other thing to do than to scumhunt hard while not killing anyone and hope to survive until lylo. You don't have any guilty conscience if you didn't kill anyone, right ?


I was still unsure of who the Cop was or if we really had one but debears was the closest to be one imo (especially the MARIO PARTY posts) so I decided to post this before the night action resolution to "protect" him.

On November 19 2012 09:39 Djodref wrote:
Guys !

I'm just waking up and I'm already late for work. I'm not going to be able to post anything during the last hour tonight.
So disappointed...

Regarding debears, I found some things damning in his filter. He is definitively on my scum list right now.
  • Kenpachi rule
  • Exchanges with Hapa seems forced
  • Soft-bus of Hapa which went wrong
  • Spread suspicion on both S&B and BH
  • Stupid lynch of Z-Bo


I'll explain everything later but I have no time right now


Djodref
Profile Joined September 2012
France3332 Posts
November 19 2012 05:24 GMT
#3006
By the way, do you think that debears could have been killed for another reason that blue sniping ?
iamperfection
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States9644 Posts
November 19 2012 05:31 GMT
#3007
I was poking fun at myself with the joke........
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=406168&currentpage=78#1551
iamperfection
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States9644 Posts
November 19 2012 05:32 GMT
#3008
Also that explains why your mini case was so bad imo so I believe you.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=406168&currentpage=78#1551
iamperfection
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States9644 Posts
November 19 2012 05:33 GMT
#3009
Refrencing debars case with that last post.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=406168&currentpage=78#1551
Djodref
Profile Joined September 2012
France3332 Posts
November 19 2012 05:36 GMT
#3010
Yeah, I got it this time
Djodref
Profile Joined September 2012
France3332 Posts
November 19 2012 05:41 GMT
#3011
On November 19 2012 13:06 Blazinghand wrote:
actually you know what I really can't criticize at this point, the setup analysis makes me confirmed town but really I could have figured that out when I said "hey guys there are 3 blues" like a million days ago.

But yeah S&B lynch today imo


@ BH

Well, it was easier for you to figure it out than for us. Also you can totally have more than 3 blues with Keir setup generator.
But I must admit that I was too stubborn when tunneling only you. I have to reconsider all my reads now.
DarthPunk
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia10857 Posts
November 19 2012 06:10 GMT
#3012
lynch Djo clarity and S&B and I doubt we could lose this. THis game is a pain in the arse to keep up with. Far too many posts most of them are useless and are just repeating what has already been said. I am going to look through the filters of those three players and see if I can come up with anything.
"If I wanted your opinion, I'd have told you what it was."
Kickstart
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States1941 Posts
November 19 2012 08:11 GMT
#3013
##vote: strongandbig

Sorry been a bit inactive, will look through filters and thread in this day cycle and post some updated reads. Only thing I can immediately think of is that not much has changed :D, I will look through debears d2 and n2 filter becuase surely there is something to be learned.
Clarity_nl
Profile Joined November 2011
Netherlands6826 Posts
November 19 2012 11:01 GMT
#3014
Please do not overlook kickstart, seeing as he just admitted to not doing anything day 2.

FIGHT THE GOOD FIGHT AGAINST STUPIDITY CLARITY, I BELIEVE IN YOU! - Palmar
Kickstart
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States1941 Posts
November 19 2012 11:10 GMT
#3015
I've expressed why I didn't say much. Is saying that not much has changed somewhat of an excuse? I suppose it is - but notice nothing has changed: everyone voting SnB still (which is who should have gone day2 anyways) and everyones top reads still being the same (namely snb, djo, clarity, and bh).
But by all means if you think I am scummy and am your top scum read of everyone here than lynch me.
Clarity_nl
Profile Joined November 2011
Netherlands6826 Posts
November 19 2012 11:10 GMT
#3016
Seriously, not that much has changed? I can't see how that's true unless you're scum. I still find snb much more likely, but this nagging feeling about kickstart has been around for 3 days now...

I look forward to seeing your "updated" reads.
FIGHT THE GOOD FIGHT AGAINST STUPIDITY CLARITY, I BELIEVE IN YOU! - Palmar
Clarity_nl
Profile Joined November 2011
Netherlands6826 Posts
November 19 2012 11:12 GMT
#3017
We confirmed Blazinghand. Our cop died. We lost two townies.

There are 50 pages of people analyizing and interacting. This doesn't strengthen or weaken your reads?
FIGHT THE GOOD FIGHT AGAINST STUPIDITY CLARITY, I BELIEVE IN YOU! - Palmar
Kickstart
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States1941 Posts
November 19 2012 11:16 GMT
#3018
Yes it did, BH and hopeless are in the clear (although hopeless was cleared n1) who were people I was originally extremely suspicious of. Id say djos activity and sincerity about bh and wanting the mass claim, but his willingness to drop it and admit bh is as good as confirmed now puts him in a bit of better light. But I still feel the same about SnB, nothing has changed, the extra time has just given more of the same (he is completely inactive when there is no pressure on him, sure he posted a bit when he was gonna be lynched but that hardly tells us anything). Now once snb is gone things get a bit iffier for me, so I will have to read up on some people.
Clarity_nl
Profile Joined November 2011
Netherlands6826 Posts
November 19 2012 11:23 GMT
#3019
But we never heard your suspicions of djo and you put 0 pressure on him. I mean.... I guess so far that's been your style, but you have to understand it makes it super hard to read you, which is anti-town. You're not my top scumread at all, snb is.
If he somehow flips green it's a toss up between djo and you, and I agree with what you just said about djo....

Your disappearance day 2 is quite unsettling, and if you have a better explanation than "I had nothing to say" I would like to hear it.
FIGHT THE GOOD FIGHT AGAINST STUPIDITY CLARITY, I BELIEVE IN YOU! - Palmar
Clarity_nl
Profile Joined November 2011
Netherlands6826 Posts
November 19 2012 11:30 GMT
#3020
I also don't like the phrasing "once snb is gone" but that could just be me.
FIGHT THE GOOD FIGHT AGAINST STUPIDITY CLARITY, I BELIEVE IN YOU! - Palmar
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