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thrawn2112
United States6918 Posts
I can't rule prom out. but a lot of that is based on me basically assuming you're town (stuff from prplhz during the early mason claims.) but other than that, I haven't had any huge concerns about prom's play, except that it felt too clean, too intentionally pro-town. I'm curious if anyone thinks that release shouldn't be lynched. | ||
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drazak
United States479 Posts
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Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
On November 07 2012 08:17 thrawn2112 wrote: this better not be some LC bs, for now I'm assuming that mafia didn't skip the nk. So prom is either scum, or was the nk target. Out of those two options, prom being scum seems more likely. I don't exactly remember prom being super high on most people's townie lists. claim not reading the thread more. At least half the thread thinks that I am as town as they get. You have played with me and know my meta, why don't you? On November 08 2012 01:17 thrawn2112 wrote: With drazak, I agree with a lot of the stuff already talked about.. specifically the voting from D2. So I could still lynch him depending on how the rest of D3 goes. However the drazak bandwagon seemed like maybe almost too much of a natural progression in the thread, and afterwards everyone agreed about drazak and activity was low ever since. So I'm just looking at different stuff in the meantime while waiting for drazak to post I can't rule prom out. but a lot of that is based on me basically assuming you're town (stuff from prplhz during the early mason claims.) but other than that, I haven't had any huge concerns about prom's play, except that it felt too clean, too intentionally pro-town. I'm curious if anyone thinks that release shouldn't be lynched. I see you do know it. So which is it? Am I scum or town? Possibilities I am considering: •Fuba is mafia roleblocker, he RBs me, holds shot and claims JK, SK either does not shoot or shoots into another protect or is RB'd. •We have a one vig who did not claim but no SK shot was against me and saved or from Kush/Release and RB'd. •We have another doc role who also protected a kill, if so I'd say bc your save and claim it next day. •Shot on me was from SK and saved, shot on bullet prof SK from scum. (I'm considering this one, it works with a crazy theory I have brewing). •Scum Rb's the SK and the shot against me was saved (I think this is what Risk suggests here):+ Show Spoiler + On November 07 2012 08:17 risk.nuke wrote: Scum roleblocked SK and Promethelax (assuming mkkfuba is telling the truth) either used or targeted by mafia kp? I'm most interested in the total lack of night kills, I think I have listed all the possibilities which are possible if I am town (which I know I am, I know you guys don't know that but you'll have to figure it out for yourselves, Acro with your big ole town read on me could you tell me what you think this total lack of NK means?). Kush, Thrawn, Risk, Release and, to a certain extent Fuba himself think this means that I am scum. I think it is particularly telling that these players had, as a general rule, warmed up to me over the last day. Fuba in fact states that he RB's me because I was a top town read of his and Risk had said he didn't feel I was scummy, that is out the window now. I'm curious to hear their theories totally explained. They begin by calling me scum but almost the only way it makes sense for me to be not town is if I am SK (the target of a NK and the one using a NK). Fuba's theory of Kush=sk is possible if we assume that thrawn is town and he did get a green check on Kush but mafia framed him that night they would know 1)kush=sk and 2)he took bullet proof, this means that Scum could rb me tonight and, instead of holding their shot shoot off the SK's bullet proof. We could have a >1 but <infinite shot Vig OP specifies X bullets. That vig might have saved his shot tonight hoping to live and use it in lylo. @Risk couldn't Acro be SK and counter claimed not knowing that Muso was town but reading the claim as poorly done and thinking he had caught scum which would make him unlynchable. Based on his play I would say that if Acro is SK he took bullet proof. I don't want Release to be lynched yet, he is finding issue with the same things in Acro's filter which I have issue with. Paranoid townie mindset not scummy unless Acro and Release are scum together. It would be foolish for a newbie scum to attack a strong town player who is very active and is already pushing release. If Acro is not scum so too is Release (though either could be SK). Release is not the best lynch today. The vote swappers are much better targets because their actions are clearly not town motivated. Can anyone who has played with Release before comment on him being the kind of guy who thinks he knows better and has his own unique (read: bad) play style. There are nine players left, four of them have already claimed their full name/role two have claimed just their name. I would be happy, I think, with a full role/name claim after everyone has discussed it. With Kush and Release both claiming RB as well I'd like to finally get all our power roles out in the air and make scum fake claim now so that they have stories they have to stick to. I think we're at 6-2-1 now though we may be at 7-2 either way we are in a great position, why not force scum to play with the disadvantage of having a role (or lack of one) to which they have to conform. I also think that there are enough obvious targets for the NK and scum shooting blues would be better for us than scum shooting good players. Why bother to rely on our blues when we can rely on our play. Even if you are opposed to a full Role claim I would like all Role blockers to claim. Who they RB'd and why. Set-up speculation: Ignore it if you want. So we lost two Role Blockers night one and three claimed Role Blocks today, does anyone think that five roleblockers in this game is likely? (hint, I don't) At least one of them was not one-shot so I would guess that takes two rolls while the one shots (Fuba, Matt) are one since there were two roll block n1 and three d2 it seems like another one-shot rb and the scum roleblocker. So we have three one shot RBs, one infinite (now we should have none left) and the scum have one infinite RB. | ||
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mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
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Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
On November 07 2012 08:04 mkfuba07 wrote: Yeah... Or both... that I was the target and the perpetrator of a NK. | ||
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mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
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thrawn2112
United States6918 Posts
On November 08 2012 02:15 Promethelax wrote: when was that?Okay, some thoughts, not sure how concise this is but I hope it sums up what I am been thinking decently. claim not reading the thread more. At least half the thread thinks that I am as town as they get. You have played with me and know my meta, why don't you? | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18289 Posts
I am assuming WBG replaced medics with JKs this game (I am too lazy to read WBG's previous games to figure out if this is likely). That means with an MM (one M is guaranteed by Zealos' flip) mkfuba could easily be telling the truth. I have some other stuff on mkfuba that gives me a not-scum read on him and this play would be basically impossible as the SK (high chance of scum gunning for Prom). So that makes MMRR, leaving at most 3Ts. Go to the wiki and look up all setups with 3 or less Ts and you see scum gets a roleblocker. That makes 5 roleblockers, of which 2 1-shot. Pretty much as the numbers work out. Now, on to why you didn't get shot: I think scum withholding KP is a completely ridiculous theory and should never be proposed EVER in a serious game. Scum don't do that. The wifom is simply not worth it, and even less so when the JK has already been killed and it looks like they have unopposed KP. In every single situation I have ever seen of a scum kill not happening it has been because of protection or scum being afk. Given all players' activity level this game, I think we can rule out afk, which leaves protection. I listed three options, however, there is a 4th, which I was withholding on the minor chance that an SK claimed (you never know, players be dumb yo). Possibilities: 1. Scum shot Prom. One of Kush, Release, or Prom is SK. 2. SK shot Prom. One of Kush, Release or Prom is scum hitman. 3. Scum shot SK. One of Kush, Release or Prom is scum hitman. 4. Scum shot SK. SK shot Prom. Shots say nothing about Release, Kush or Prom. I see no reason to suspect Prom as SK: the suspicions against him were due to too-much-knowledge, not a lack interest in the game. Prom's behaviour at lynch time and Hopeless' early case pretty much remove the possibility of scum. I am currently not willing to read any more into this. I want Kush to give me that list and I want to analyze Release's posting better. However, I am currently in full-on information-gathering mode. Oh, two objections to roleclaiming. One, scum almost certainly has a roleblocker and two, it seems too fucking easy to fakeclaim this game and it'll only fuel more retarded kush-like discussions. So I am against it. It is a fucking stupid way to play the game. | ||
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HiroPro
United States2624 Posts
Day 3 Vote Count drazak(2): Acrofales, Release(2): thrawn2112, kushm4sta kushm4sta(1): Release | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18289 Posts
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Acrofales
Spain18289 Posts
But fine, here it is again: ##vote Drazak | ||
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mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
Fuba's theory of Kush=sk is possible if we assume that thrawn is town and he did get a green check on Kush but mafia framed him that night they would know 1)kush=sk and 2)he took bullet proof, this means that Scum could rb me tonight and, instead of holding their shot shoot off the SK's bullet proof. So they rb you (which wasn't them, because it was me), shoot off the SK's bullet proof, and what did kush do? | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18289 Posts
3 possibilities: 1. Someone got RB'd but didn't claim. If this was Zealos' target we'll never know. 2. One of the RBers got RB'd. 3. Prom or I got doublestack RB'd. I'm guessing number 3. I can see a scum RBing Prom and a town RBing prom. Scum bluehunting while enough of town had doubts about Prom being scum. However, rather a lot of wifom here. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18289 Posts
On November 08 2012 02:15 Promethelax wrote: Fuba's theory of Kush=sk is possible if we assume that thrawn is town and he did get a green check on Kush but mafia framed him that night they would know 1)kush=sk and 2)he took bullet proof, this means that Scum could rb me tonight and, instead of holding their shot shoot off the SK's bullet proof. Errr, why would scum have to RB you tonight? Don't you mean they could RB HIM and shoot his bulletproof off? However, all of this is Wildly WIFOM. Lets work with what we know instead of dreaming up hypotheticals. FIRST we need to find a framer. | ||
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Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
On November 08 2012 03:03 Acrofales wrote: Errr, why would scum have to RB you tonight? Don't you mean they could RB HIM and shoot his bulletproof off? However, all of this is Wildly WIFOM. Lets work with what we know instead of dreaming up hypotheticals. FIRST we need to find a framer. If Fuba is scum: he RBs me, scum shoot off SKs bullet proof and get town cred for being a confirmed JK. Wild WIFOM. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18289 Posts
On November 08 2012 03:11 Promethelax wrote: If Fuba is scum: he RBs me, scum shoot off SKs bullet proof and get town cred for being a confirmed JK. Wild WIFOM. And where did Kush's kill go? | ||
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Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
On November 08 2012 02:47 thrawn2112 wrote: when was that? When was what? You saying that? Check your own filter? Or when half of town thought I was town? Before Night Post came up Acro, Fuba and DP all had strong town reads on me, Draz stated a strong town read. Risk didn't look at me as scum asy more. | ||
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Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
Either hits a protect or he was RB'd (which Kush was). | ||
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thrawn2112
United States6918 Posts
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Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
Weird, I was writing your name and Open Office auto filled 2112 on the end of it. So I've written it there before. Sorry mang, I'm totally wrong. | ||
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