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Acme Mini Mafia, Inc - Page 54

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Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain17911 Posts
November 06 2012 21:45 GMT
#1061
Oh, and my other question: how is lynching someone who shows up 15 minutes before the deadline with a (probably bullshit) excuse WORSE than lynching someone who is completely inactive.

You say his excuse is what triggered your unvote. Please explain that better.
kushm4sta
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
United States8878 Posts
November 06 2012 21:51 GMT
#1062
are there questions people want me to address? if so restate them and I will answer anything.

Why are people not thinking dp is scummy. Prome you said he wasn't scummy anymore.why the fuck is that? because he came back right as I was trying to form a bandwagon on him?
now he is just saying lynch draz gg and not even trying to scumhunt elsewhere or consider draz might be town.

Summary: why don't you think draz is scum because he totally is.
OMGUS.net, kush sex blogs every friday night
drazak
Profile Joined November 2011
United States479 Posts
November 06 2012 21:52 GMT
#1063
I don't like lynching people who might not deserve the lynch.
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain17911 Posts
November 06 2012 21:57 GMT
#1064
On November 07 2012 06:52 drazak wrote:
I don't like lynching people who might not deserve the lynch.

Okay. Why is someone who goes completely offline for 14 hours deserving of the lynch, while someone who shows up 15 minutes before the deadline is not.

Honestly, the latter guy is far more likely to be scum. Town is, on the whole, more likely to lose interest in the game.
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain17911 Posts
November 06 2012 21:58 GMT
#1065
On November 07 2012 06:51 kushm4sta wrote:
are there questions people want me to address? if so restate them and I will answer anything.

Why are people not thinking dp is scummy. Prome you said he wasn't scummy anymore.why the fuck is that? because he came back right as I was trying to form a bandwagon on him?
now he is just saying lynch draz gg and not even trying to scumhunt elsewhere or consider draz might be town.

Summary: why don't you think draz is scum because he totally is.

Interesting, you have an opinion that doesn't seem to be based on flavour. Why do you think DP is scummy?
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain17911 Posts
November 06 2012 21:59 GMT
#1066
Please confirm that I don't have timezones mixed up and the action deadline passed?
wherebugsgo
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
Japan10647 Posts
November 06 2012 22:00 GMT
#1067
Action deadline has just passed now.

One hour to nightpost.
mkfuba07
Profile Joined November 2010
United States1151 Posts
November 06 2012 22:02 GMT
#1068
Part 1: The Claim

I am Tasmanian Devil - One shot Jailkeeper


Apparently I decided to consolidate all of my posting for the game into a single post. Sorry about that. I think it's worth it though.

A few issues with this:
1) The way the Jailkeeper spoiler in the OP is phrased, I misunderstood what Jailkeeper was capable of in this setup. I thought I was only capable of saving, not roleblocking. Yes, I know what a jailer is normally capable of, but coming out of LC mafia and after looking at the C9++ setup and not seeing a jailer but seeing a medic, I assumed I was basically the medic. Therefore, my mind jumped right to my role breadcrumb from LC mafia. It was my mistake, but I hope it doesn't ruin everything I'm about to say.
2) Since I only have one action for the game, I couldn't exactly mimic my crumb from LC ("I'm going to save austinmcc the trouble..."). All I had this game was this post where I say that "A vig would save us the worry." It was all I was able to come up with at the time (both due to time restrictions as well as creativity issues), and I figured that I would simply breadcrumb my action later and all would be well. Thinking about it now, there's little reason to believe this claim, but I am putting it out there because I can only use my ability once, and this will narrow down the scum field if I am able to convince you.
3) Apparently I say "save" more than I thought I did. That's the "breadcrumb" I used in LC to hint at my role, while the better crumbs were regarding who I actually checked. Essentially, my action crumbs have been more convincing than my role crumbs. As my only crumb at the moment is that I said "save" earlier (then later said it about three more times after a search of my own filter XD), my crumb is considerably weak.

Some comments of mine that I believe lend credence to my claim:

Any time I say kush's flavor theory is somewhat swaying me. D1 it was because I didn't have one of those non-character names. D2 it was because obviously my name is in line with Daffy Duck and Sylvester. The flaw that popped up later: Bugs Bunny, I will comment on later.

My reason for not using my power during the first day:

I am a one-shot jailkeeper, and I didn't want to waste two town abilities if I accidentally hit another blue role. I was also far more unsure of things than I am today. I think that today there will be more to gain from my action than if I had randomly selected someone yesterday.

Why am I claiming now?

Because my play has been pretty much abysmal, and I really don't want to get myself lynched tomorrow or shot by someone without having the opportunity to help town if I can with my host-given abilities. I also think that scum or sk may have gotten wind of some of the subtext in my posts and might be gunning for me tonight. And as I said before, if I am able to convince you of this then one more person is eliminated from the scumpool.

After all of the writing I did below, everything I said above is pretty much irrelevant. I think I probably drew a vigi shot or possibly two in the last few hours, and am likely to die, but I think it was worth it. At the very least I possibly saved one of my townreads (Prome) and I believe I've given two great options for a lynch.
Never trust a skinny innkeeper
mkfuba07
Profile Joined November 2010
United States1151 Posts
November 06 2012 22:02 GMT
#1069
Part 2: The Scumreads

My current feelings on various players:

Drazak
Honestly, 'nuff said. I did doubt the scumminess of his actions around the lynch, but after reading through what others have said I am convinced at the very least that it is not a town tell. If you add that to how I previously felt about him, he still turns up scum.

Crazy theory time, because it's falling together in my head just about perfectly. I feel like each of these players could be scum/sk on their own merits, but the way they're interacting is quite interesting. Much of this will be a scenario that I've constructed around a few particularly... odd facts about their interactions, but I maintain that both of these players should be lynched. I say it again, if you don't exactly buy into the case as a whole, analyze it for it's individual components and realize that they're both playing incredibly strangely. I have done my best to explain it, but not being scum or SK, I cannot possibly know everything.

Kush + Thrawn Timeline
kush has his flavor theory (I think this is the first mention of it)
N2 Starts
thrawn's breadcrumb
kush's theory grows stronger
kush's reads so far are based exclusively on his flavor theory
thrawn claims Bugs Bunny
thrawn asks if kush believes his claim A.K.A. "Kush, do you understand what's going on?"
kush believes thrawn's claim A.K.A "Yes, I understand"
Kush unvoting hopeless1der because of the flavor theory
only now is the flavor theory wrong

kush
sk
I don't feel like he's been playing to either of his metas (though I admittedly haven't heavily analyzed his meta because I find it to be a daunting task). People who have said that he is playing to his town meta (specifically drazak): Can you point out a game where he spent the majority of his posts analyzing the flavor text or some other aspect of the game that has nothing to do with someone's behaviour? His posts seem almost exclusively centered around bluefishing, which would be a good goal for a serial killer, as scum will target blues and not him.

I'd also like to point out that Hopeless1der's flip doesn't in any way abolish his flavor theory. Scum flipped "hero", blues have flipped "villain", and townies are all so far (including his own personal input) still "non-characters". The only contradiction that I can see is thrawn's roleclaim, which conveniently aleviates kush of guilt for his play. After pursuing flavor-text based reads the entire game, why did he suddenly drop it only now that a scum has flipped to show that his protector has similar flavor? In fact, he used that exact name in his list of examples.
He states that he trusts Thrawn's claim, even though it's in direct conflict with his great flavor theory (which he states at one point is the basis of all of his reads). Thrawn claims with one of the exact names he's mentioned as likely scummy, and kush believes it. Why? Thrawn is either scum or this breaks his theory. In addition, he doesn't admit that his theory's been broken until after a scum flips. He didn't know that hope would flip with "Road Runner", but he knows he can't keep pursuing the flavor theory when someone has flipped who would implicate his provider of innocence. This definitely makes me think SK over scum.

thrawn is not playing how I expected him to play - I usually see him as a hapa-esque player, with a lot of posts and interaction with other players. He seems different this game. I can't remember having seen any of his scum games (or even if I've participated in any of them), but according to this post from the irc mafia thread, his scum meta is that of a lurker (I feel that despite having 3-4x the filter I do, he hasn't been as active as I expected coming in, and the quality of contributions feels lacking). That quote is straight from his own mouth, without any influence from being in a game at the time. There is also a list of games from the page before that post that you can read to see it for yourself. Yes, this is regarding IRC mafia and not forum mafia, but I think that distinction matters far more for someone like me than it would for someone like thrawn. I believe his difficulty stems from his ability to participate when he knows he's lying. I'm used to him appearing to have no trouble posting frequently and insightfully as town, and I don't feel like that would change much between IRC and forum. I kind of expected him to play like Acro or Prome have been.

In addition, and personally more convincing, I find it highly possible that he fake-roleclaimed. There are a series of steps that need to be broken down. (in post 3)
Never trust a skinny innkeeper
mkfuba07
Profile Joined November 2010
United States1151 Posts
November 06 2012 22:02 GMT
#1070
Post 3: The Fakeclaim

1) The role. I believe 1-shot cop is the easiest and most useful fakeclaim according to the c9++ setup (which I know isn't definitely the setup used, but is the closest thing that anyone in the thread could base their setup speculation on). It allows you to make one check at some point without being held accountable for any future checks. It, along with vigi, doesn't require a full version of itself to be claimed (according to C9++), and a vigi fakeclaim doesn't allow you to manipulate the game. You can't missclaim with it either. If you are scum, you know everyone else is town (or have a way to test for an SK in certain cases - A.K.A. Kush) It also has the potential for finding the SK. More on that in a moment.

2) His breadcrumb. It's well written, that's for sure. The thing is, it's made during the night post, after scum could have selected their NK, and while the post is about kush, it doesn't breadcrumb kush. thrawn could use the same breadcrumb following nights to the same effect. On top of that, why didn't he just outright state that he was the 1-shot cop during the night (we get a free hour to do so)? He was going to claim the next day anyway. The way it's set up, he could refer to that crumb throughout the game, and say that he used his ability on any person in the game on any night.

3) The potential. Once scum know who the SK is, they can either waste another KP on them the next night (assuming they didn't outright kill him), or turn them over to town (either with legitimate arguments, or as one of them is about to be lynched). Both options are bad for the SK. If you're able to communicate to him that you know who he is, then you tell him that you know who he is, and you're basically in it together against town. It puts him in a position of knowing who one scum is, but being unable to do anything about it without losing the game for himself. This gains scum and SK a tentative alliance. The result is that scum don't have to worry about a SK NK on at least one person, the one communicating with him secretly in the thread. The SK gets to keep living, and possibly work his way into a position to win the game. A side effect is that if the SK is going to go under, he can take at least that one mafia with him in the event of a lynch. Conveniently, the green check both alerts the SK that scum know who he is, and also protects both him AND the scum from scrutiny for at least one day, if not more than that. You'll notice that thrawn asks if kush believes him. Kush responds that he believes him. The actions of both players seems strange at this point, do they not?

4) The timing. I've already mentioned how thrawn's breadcrumb came a bit late. What I haven't mentioned yet is how thrawn's claim itself came 18 hours into D2. I believe this is after everyone else commented in the thread, indicating that it's unlikely anyone else was going to roleclaim cop. If either of these things weren't the case, it would be far less suspicious. The fact that he crumbed during the night and claimed halfway through the next day (instead of earlier in the day or sometime during the night post) give me strong feelings that he was being more careful than he should have had to be with his claim. I can tell you that I thought hard over when I should best post this, and my conclusion was apparently the absolute opposite of thrawn's.

All of these things make me feel as though his town read on Kush isn't legitimate. If thrawn flips scum, and I truly believe he will flip scum, then definitely doubt the hell out of kush. Or lynch him first. Whatever.
Never trust a skinny innkeeper
mkfuba07
Profile Joined November 2010
United States1151 Posts
November 06 2012 22:03 GMT
#1071
Part 4: The Wrap-Up

If there is a vigi here, claim asap. If there was a kill blocked, scum probably aimed for kush and didn't kill him, thus revealing him as SK. If there isn't a vigi, then bits of my connection conspiracy fall apart a bit, but each player's individual play is still weird as hell.

The ways in which kush and thrawn have acted since I started asking questions further confirms my beliefs. Thrawn is going all wishy-washy over kush, saying he doesn't want a kush lynch, but oh wait, he might after all. Unfortunately, he can't vote for kush or kush will reveal that he's scum. And now kush is picking his flavor theory back up again, even though by this point it's basically useless (moreso than it was before). It's all he can hang on to. They're flopping around, gasping for air, and I think it's time to put them out of their misery.

Everyone else
Town to various degrees. I would be heavily against a prome, acro, or DP lynch. risk and release I am less confident of. I would still need a lot of convincing to vote for either of them over thrawn or kush.

After writing all of this out, I feel pretty confident with what I've said. I think of kush, thrawn, and drazak, we will catch at least two scum/sk. Drazak is the one I'm now feeling the least sure about, if you can believe it.
Never trust a skinny innkeeper
mkfuba07
Profile Joined November 2010
United States1151 Posts
November 06 2012 22:04 GMT
#1072
Sorry for the length. I couldn't stop once I got started. I really want to go to bed now, but I think I'll try to stick around until the day post.
Never trust a skinny innkeeper
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain17911 Posts
November 06 2012 22:04 GMT
#1073
First things first. A brief analysis of Hopeless1der's filter.
+ Show Spoiler [play by play] +

D1: he votes Musho and never changes off him. No use at all.
Not much of an analysis on Release, but some. Clears him as acting townie.
Soft defends Promethelax. Given D2 behaviour, this looks like buddying.
Soft defends Draz with NO REASON. I first had an analysis written up here that this confirmed Draz as scum, but Hopeless' later behaviour does not actually support that hypothesis.
Soft defends Kush

D2 has some more info:
- Pressure on Promethelax. If Prom's behaviour at the vote was not enough to exonerate him, this is. It was enough of a case to keep flying under the radar. This is not the kind of case you want to make when bussing your teammate. Those you make with a high profile and keep pushing them (otherwise what the hell is the point of bussing?), so Prom is pretty much confirmed town based on this.
- Says Acro is town. Soft buddying (yes, I say so myself)
- Very interesting post:
On November 05 2012 03:12 Hopeless1der wrote:
I didn't find any breadcrumbs. However, I have a question:

Show nested quote +
On November 03 2012 23:54 Mattchew wrote:
If WBg balanced this game then one of me/acro/risk/prplhz are scum... I don't think acro is cause he woulda known Muso was town and that would be a crazy fucking move for a scum to make

Any merit to this statement from Mattchew? Would wbg handpick roles?

Why repeat this at this time? My theory: because actually none of us are scum (although I have a theory about risk.nuke below). Emphasizing this post by confirmed town veteran could lead to more pressure on Prom and leads automatically into suspicion of me and risk: all three of which HE knows are not on his team.

- Soft pressure on Release. Null tell imho: could equally well be distancing.
- States a will to lynch Drazak. This one is harder to read. However, he keeps his vote on Promethelax. Can be distancing. He once again does not give a reason for wanting Drazak dead.
- I love the guilty undertone of his response to me. But it doesn't contain any associations.

When the bandwagon starts building he suddenly unvotes Promethelax in favour of a no-lynch. Not sure what to make of this, but chalking it up to "must save my own ass and the Prom wagon already failed".

- Once again, he mentions Draz as a lynch candidate. He could be lashing about at whatever he can get his hands on as he throws me up too. Maybe the scum plan was to bus Draz if things went south based on Draz being under continuous suspicion in any case. However, it is a LOT of wifom to draw any conclusions at all from this.

- For anybody actually reading the filter, I never made a case on Fuba. Don't bother looking for it. Anyway, last minute bollocks case on me to try a desperate attempt at a swing vote (picked me to get on Prom's good side). Desperate attempt to get out from under a lynch... and guess what, that kind of thing is not a bus. Connect the dots.


Suspiciously little interaction:
- Kushm4sta (very suspicious: how do you play this game without addressing Kush... unless you are deliberately trying to avoid it?). Have to say that analyzing interactions is not my strong point, so someone please look into this.

Hopeless1der shied away from interacting in general. It's hard to get much else from his interactions for me.

TLDR:
Strong read: Prom is not scum
Weak read: Risk is not scum, Drazak is scum (high wifom quotient)


The Town


Promethelax, Thrawn, Acro - no explanation required.



The Not-scum

Release.

He is currently one of my primary candidates for SK, but I don't think he's scum:
+ Show Spoiler [quote] +

On November 05 2012 14:40 Release wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 05 2012 03:47 Acrofales wrote:
Hmmmm, rereading Release's filter and it is truly terrible. I can't believe I missed this on my first readthrough.

Release vs. Kushm4sta: at the time I thought it was Kush being dumb and Release being dumber. However, it WAS a very easy mistake for scum to jump on and a newbie scum (and this would be Release's first scum game) could definitely be expected to try to jump on that.

While in my nightpost I said that his "distraction" post read as too ballsy a move for scum, we must not forget that it actually worked. The topic shifted away from Release's aggression towards Kush and onto more easily handled subjects. Partially helped by Muso's claim.

Release's behaviour in that claim was very very weird. The first thing he reacted with was
On November 01 2012 13:07 Release wrote:
Sounds like bait from Muso. Wants me to push the agenda with which i have already parted.

Muso...

This is strange play, regardless of alignment, and I am unsure what to make of it. One way this makes sense is if he was WAITING for a trap to be laid, and he caught it out. Town doesn't wait for traps. Scum does.

However, in the whole ordeal, this is what really caught my eye:
On November 02 2012 09:56 Release wrote:
I've caught up with the reading and afai can tell, Muso's reason for why he did such things is based on WIFOM( yes many things in mafia are wifom, but this has little to help up). From what i see the intent of this post was to spread confusion and maybe set up a 1 for 1 trade, which could have been accomplished with accrofale's claim.

more to come later.

This slipped by me the first time. A 1 for 1 trade is a TERRIBLE deal for scum. Both scum and town players know that. However, if you KNOW Muso and Acro are both town, then you suddenly have to come up with a reason to lynch Muso. This reason is extremely forced. Most everybody else was just really confused about why Muso would claim mason as scum... which is the correct reaction.

Kush actually called him out on this post at the time and his response was a classic OMGUS with some more idiotic logic where he tries to make a 1-1 trade make sense with complete lunacy:
On November 02 2012 11:26 Release wrote:
On November 02 2012 10:23 kushm4sta wrote:
On November 02 2012 09:56 Release wrote:
I've caught up with the reading and afai can tell, Muso's reason for why he did such things is based on WIFOM( yes many things in mafia are wifom, but this has little to help up). From what i see the intent of this post was to spread confusion and maybe set up a 1 for 1 trade, which could have been accomplished with accrofale's claim.

more to come later.


You've caught up on reading?? What does that have to do with anything. All of muso's reasoning is in his last post.
From this post I'm not sure if you think he's town or mafia.

Also this makes no sense:
Why would mafia do a 1 for 1 trade with a mason, especially with the possibility of a doctor?

Are you trying to start a fight with me?

I said I caught up so i don't get "did you even read?"s in response to my post.
You wanted me to only read Muso's last post and skip everything else?

Spread confusion = mafia trait

Mafia might want to do a 1 for 1 trade because as of now, we see that Muso is terrible, and maybe he had been terrible in the mafia QT. Of course this is Hypothetical and you'd have to ask the mafia themselves to get the right answer.


Then the vote switching: he wants to vote for Promethelax, but if we can get a majority on Drazak, he will go along with the deal. Ends up voting Muso because:
On November 03 2012 06:12 Release wrote:
Vote count?

If at 14:59 we have 6 votes on Muso, I will switch. I am a firm believer that nolynch day1 sucks balls for town.


In other words: doesn't give a shit about where his vote ends up as long as it secures a lynch (on a townie like Muso, who despite what Promethelax says was always going to be lynched, because it was way too late for a voteswitch anywhere else with half the town afk at the deadline).

But the REAL nail in the coffin is:
On November 03 2012 10:50 Release wrote:
On November 03 2012 10:32 Mattchew wrote:
On November 01 2012 11:20 Release wrote:
Do not use this post later to claim that i am shifting attention off myself. I acknowledge that I am under suspicion.

So in the flurry of comment regarding the claiming, we seem to have dismissed the possibility of enacting a Lynch-all-liars policy. The main con i see if we do enact it is that we can't pull use fishing for reactions as freely. The main pro, however, is that people can't claim to be fishing for reactions. Another consequence is that more information is in the thread. Both town and mafia know more about true intentions and can react accordingly.

Personally, i am against such a policy because people can very easily say "i changed my mind" and blame/vindication will tend to be imposed base on a town/scum flip.

On November 02 2012 11:27 Release wrote:
##Vote: Muso

con-tra-dick-shun

You expected me to deliberately not vote what appeared to be very scummy behavior?
Hell, i could have chosen accro too if i wanted to lynch-all-liars. I chose Muso for the scummy manner in which he lied.


Wait... WHAT? You voted for Muso to ensure the lynch would happen. You ACTUALLY preferred both Promethelax and Drazak (or at least said you did)... however NOW his behaviour was suddenly very scummy.

Add to that, that he has put 0 effort into this game except when under fire and we have ourselves a scum. I am not sure what this says about Promethelax. Still thinking things over. However, Release has surpassed Promethelax as my prime scum read.

##unvote
##vote Release


PS. Yes, I said I was reading DarthPunk: that was completely inconclusive and I don't know what to make of him.

My post realllly didn't cause the move. It was Muso's claim. If anything, the post attracted some attention for being a distraction itself (which, ofc, i claimed that it was).

About the trap: I'm the one who said, "oh, Kush is trying to trick a mason into claiming."
Then i said "w/e. I concede that it was an honest mistake." Then this. At the time, i thought that this was a (lousy) attempt to get me to go back to my petty complaint against Kush.

I was working under the assumption that he was not a smurf, that he was a complete newb, and that the scum also saw him as a complete newb. With those, i believed that the scum believed he would be more useful as a sacrificial lamb than as someone who might be a liability.
As you can see, I don't tend to have the typical reaction, so pardon me if i don't want to add fluff to my filter by saying "what the.." I actually wanted to have some thoughts.
+ Show Spoiler +
Why should there be a correct reaction? People react to things differently. I don't see a townie motivation for
saying that there should be (one) correct reaction.


<snip>


This is a very non-scum reaction. It shows clearly that he is not correctly putting himself in the scum mindset. Faking that when actually IN a scum mindset is incredibly hard.

He was also so uninterested in the vote that he didn't even show up for it. He was fairly certain HE was not getting lynched. This is also not scum: they care not only about themselves, but also their teammates (read below about Drazak).

This, however, is the main point in favour of him being an SK. He is the most apathetic player this game. He makes cases, but is entirely uninterested in pushing them. Hell, he makes cases against people who he knows CANNOT be pushed (due to green checks... or well... me being town). He is fine coasting by this game, making weird plays that make no sense, but don't get him lynched.



mkfuba

Votes Hopeless1der.
Unvotes to vote Drazak.
Is then an early adopter of the Hopeless1der wagon.

Assuming Drazak is indeed scum, this is just too incredible to go with. Master bus, or not-scum. If Drazak for some incredible reason flips town, then reconsider this, but as it is, this voting behaviour tells me he is not scum.

However, he is incredibly flippant about just plain sheeping. He was also really happy to follow Thrawn, another strong town read, when the Prom wagon seemed a bit stuck and the Hopeless wagon never came off the ground. In his favour, he had Drazak as a scum read pretty consistently throughout the day.

I don't really like mkfuba as an SK. I feel he is trying too hard. Feels more like town than Release, despite the question. This might be bias, because I also always want to know things that have nothing to do with me, simply because I get bugged by things I don't know when I am concocting some theory or other.



The great unknowns

DarthPunk

I was going to put DarthPunk in town, as I seemed to have a town vibe. However, upon rereading his filter I am no longer sure. A lot of the things that I read as town are actually highly ambiguous. Please read his filter well and make very sure before trusting him.
One thing, though: if Drazak is scum, then DP either pulled off a pro-bus before it even was a bus, or he is not scum (analysis will have to indicate whether he's SK or town).



risk.nuke

If Release is the most apathetic player, risk.nuke is a pretty close second:
On November 07 2012 03:47 risk.nuke wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 07 2012 03:36 Promethelax wrote:
I see you got the same feeling from that question as I did Risk. God, that is what makes seeing you as scum so hard but you aren't really contributing. Can I expect a dawn post from you with reads in it?

Why? Scum should get the same conclusion about fuba.

I haven't really read the thread or scum hunted since last night. So probably no dawn post. I just wanted to make sure people didn't miss fuba claim SK.


However, I also don't yet read him as scum. For one, I agree with Prom that he keeps saying townie things at the right time. This could be a sign of him flying under the radar. His posting style is ambiguous enough that I feel he could still be anything. I feel scum is the least likely option, partially because of Hopeless1der's repetition of Matt's post. I don't think he would've done that if there was actually scum on that list.



kushm4sta

He was || this close to be put under the scum header. I cannot see a town explanation for almost anything he has done this game. The only saving grace is the green check on him.

Pretty much the first mention of Hopeless1der in the game:
On November 05 2012 04:21 kushm4sta wrote:
other scumreads are hopeless and mkfuba

Incriminating without a reason or voting. Easy way to distance from a scumbuddy. No reason to do this as town at all. Note that this was somewhere at the start of D2.

Hopeless is up for lynch and basically the only reason that kush has to jump ship is the claim. I have detailed my thoughts around that earlier, but what happened to the Hopeless1der being his second-strongest scum read?

Granted, I can make very little sense of Kush's play in general. This harping on claims is so foreign to me that I cannot see how it works from a scum mindset either (or SK). It is just extremely weird, and that makes kush incredibly hard to analyze. I think a comparison to BillMurray is adequate here, with the exception that I am actually getting to know BM and think I can take a decent stab at making sense of him.

Kush could, literally, be anything. The only read I am really getting is that he feels like he is being a teamplayer. He does not feel like an SK.

There are some ways of verifying that, to some extent. If the scum KP is missing it can be due to an ace roleblock, or due to them shooting the SK. If the roleblock isn't claimed and the roleblocker doesn't die that same cycle, then it is almost certainly due to a bulletproof SK. A bulletproof SK means Kush is not the SK, in a similar way to the second scum not flipping framer means Kush is not scum.

I feel the chances of Kush being scum skyrocket if there IS a framer. I feel Kush made an excellent frame target N1: he was under enough suspicion that he might be targeted, yet not too obvious (like Prom would have been).

However, the Drazak-Kush interactions have been very un-scum-partner-like. This needs further analysis.



The Scum

Drazak

In case this lynch still needs nailing down, here is a full case on Drazak's play this game. I know most of the points have been made by other people at one time or another, however for D1 I had Drazak down as noob town. I am now rereading him and find myself agreeing quite a lot with those other people, instead of forgiving Drazak's foibles.

On November 02 2012 04:41 drazak wrote:
It's just like breadcrumbing, Zealos. I don't see anything wrong with it and I'm not sure how it's not in the spirit of the game, how else would mason partners confirm eachother? Nah, I'm fine with it, I'm not fine with muso, lying about how many games he has and then screwing over himself, useless to town and probably scummy. Only thing is that I'm not sure why his scumbuddies aren't reigning him in if he is scum, probably doesn't communicate with them.

Either way, he's pretty useless and possibly detrimental to us.

##vote muso

Someone harped on Drazak for for the last sentence. I feel that is an unfortunate choice of words which could have been made by town. However, the complete lack of a problem with the glaring obnoxious lie that is being lared bare is telling. Muso's greater lie was being a mason (and at this point the lie wasn't even confirmed, I had just counterclaimed). However, a scum Drazak knows Muso is town and thus expects him to truly be a mason. He passes over that lie in favour of the lesser lie. The mason claim is only mentioned when he gets called out later.

On November 02 2012 23:17 drazak wrote:
I don't see any reason to change my vote, I honestly have no freaking clue why muso did what he did, but there's nothing town about it, if he is town, he's doing a very bad job establishing himself as town.

I hope he isn't town though, a D1 mafia kill would definitely ensure our town victory.

The last sentence feels insincere. I am terribad at emotional analysis from text, though. Just the logical non-sequitur combined with the false dichotomy really rubs me the wrong way and makes me feel the word "hope" here is insincere. However, this is a very minor tell in comparison to most of the tells in this list.

On November 03 2012 06:07 drazak wrote:
Release actually tried to scumhunt, I'm seeing town on him, even though he still wants to vote for me. I don't think he's done anything to cause confusion, and I think he really wants to find a mafia right now, which is what I'm trying to do.

Mattchew is also looking town, although I'd like him to be a bit more active, I don't think he'd say that he likes his gut instincts D1 if he didn't believe in them and have somewhat decent evidence, less town than release but definitely a town read.

Hope has about the right amount of defensiveness for a townie, he's gone to lurk mode around lynch time which makes me a little nervous, everyone else seems to be here and willing to talk except him. Not sure what he's up to but when he starts posting again I hope he has a good explaination, I'm neutral on him right now.

Thrawn has been trying his damnedest to scumhunt for a D1 hunt, not sure what he thinks he might actually accomplish, but he's asking questions like I should be (but I don't because I suck ) and trying to make things happen. I find him distinctly town at the moment.

risk.nuke has not a lot to go on in his filter, and every single one of his comments is 1 line and most of them are fluffy. I think this is even worse than my posts have been. I find him 2nd scummiest after muso.

Kush is just doing his fucking trolly ass shit. Town meta for him 100%

Zealos doesn't vote anyone and isn't happy with Acro or Muso, not sure what to think here, he wants to vote two of my town reads, not sure I like this, but might just not be following that closely.

It is hard to get more non-committal than the bit on Hopeless1der in this list. He's green, but might be red due to lurk.

On November 03 2012 06:26 drazak wrote:
"Our" contributions to the thread? no immediate correction? sounds like a scum slip to me >.< I'll do it anyway, assuming you mean you and your predecessor.

Sounds like a scumslip? However, Drazak KNOWS it's not, because he knows Prom is not scum. Therefore it only SOUNDS like a scumslip and can comfortably be ignored. Now, if Drazak had a strong townread on Prom at this point I could understand letting this slide. However:
On November 03 2012 05:38 drazak wrote:
I can't make a read on you, prom, you have like 6 posts.

<snip>

Immediately afterwards he buddies Prom pretty hard:
On November 03 2012 06:33 drazak wrote:
Well prom, you do have a lot more posts than I thought, i think I missed a few el flamewheelen style. Anyway, I'm not voting you because I think you're doing a genuine job scumhunting, I know you're on my case but you're just trying to do a good thing, and while you have the wrong target, your scum hunting is good since you don't know my meta very well and I'm pretty much always lynch bait. I don't find anything scummy with you bro.

This just feels WAAYYY too chummy given the context of the game at that point and Drazak's earlier assertions.


On November 03 2012 06:43 drazak wrote:
you mean "you're" not "your", "your" shows possesion, "you're" is "you are".

This kinda post just really bugs me. It is not contributing. I don't think it's scummy, it just really pissed me off at the time, and every time I read the filter.

On November 05 2012 22:15 drazak wrote:
Hey nuke, I kind of like your opinion on Prom, but I'm not sold on him being scum yet, do you have anything else to add to his case? I think he might be town still, do you have more to add to his case? Please convince me.

I think Hope right now is my #1 read because he still hasn't posted jack shit, he comes back and is like "lol, I haven't posted and I should feel bad" and then doesn't post more, I'm gonna park a vote on him until I hear more from him, I want to know what his top reads are and wtf he thinks he's doing.

|##vote hopeless1der

Pretty important post in Drazak's filter. I read it as him testing the water on a Prom lynch... he knows he is flipping 180 from his total town read of the day before, so he cannot do it without "being convinced". However, if the Prom lynch is gonna happen, he wants to be able to seal it. This is ALSO the post in which he votes Hope as his "number 1 scum read" for lurking. We all know what happened to that #1 scum read.

On November 06 2012 06:39 drazak wrote:
I don't want to vote for prom but I will if it means a lynch, I think he's town and anyone who thinks otherwise is probably scum (

Herp derp.

On November 06 2012 07:56 drazak wrote:
Fuck it, I don't think hope is mafia.

##unvote
##vote prom

we need a lynch though

KABOOM MUTHAFUCKA. I CLAIM SCUM. WOOOOOOOOOO!!!

On November 06 2012 07:58 drazak wrote:
I'm scum because I'm not sure about a lurker lynch? k, whatever.


##unvote
##vote hopeless1der


you better hope he comes up red or else I'm cominga t you dp

Wait what the fuck?! Did I really just do that? Oh fuck oh fuck oh fuck oh fuck DAMAGE CONTROL. PLEASE NOBODY NOTICE! Oh shit, too late.

On November 06 2012 09:39 drazak wrote:
I'd have to be a monumentally stupid scum to jump that vote as scum, lol.

There is, of course, this. However, you'd have to be a monumentally stupid town to jump that vote too. At least we agree on something

However, all jokes aside, Drazak has still not explained how Hopeless1der showing up and saying "I was in a meeting, please don't lynch me" convinced him that Hopeless1der was not a lurker.

On November 06 2012 08:39 drazak wrote:
I didn't see his post about being in a meeting, and then I did and didn't want to vote for him because that sucks. Apparently no seeing a post and then reacting to it is scummy now

The logic befuddles me: someone who is completely inactive all through the lynch is somehow a BETTER lynch candidate than someone who shows up 15 minutes before the lynch with a (probably bullshit) excuse?

Lets just use Ockham's razor here: Drazak is new to playing scum. It is his very first time on TL as scum. The lynch on his scumbuddy suddenly gathered momentum just before the deadline while the whole day it was sitting cushy on a townie. He panicked and that was it. GG Drazak
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain17911 Posts
November 06 2012 22:07 GMT
#1074
Oh, a claim. If it's further down in the wall of text, sorry for missing it, haven't read it all yet. Who are you jailing?
mkfuba07
Profile Joined November 2010
United States1151 Posts
November 06 2012 22:10 GMT
#1075
Sorry, it was vague/hidden in the wall. Jailing Prome because I want him kept alive. Probably would have chosen you, but I feel like scum/sk might have gotten a whiff of blue from me, and didn't want to go with the person I had nothing but town reads on all game. A bit wifom-y, but I feel that both of you contribute similarly well, and I wanted to save one if they're being hit.
Never trust a skinny innkeeper
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain17911 Posts
November 06 2012 22:17 GMT
#1076
Good choice, imho. I feel that Prom has also drawn quite a bit of the fire off me, as has Release. They may have given scum some hope of pushing a case on me. Whether they intended to or not, I have a slight glimmer of hope of living through the night.

I also rather like your theory (haven't finished reading yet). I will reread thrawn. I had a townread on him based on a number of things, but I had not thought of the scum/SK cooperation.

Kush, what do you think of that theory?
kushm4sta
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
United States8878 Posts
November 06 2012 22:19 GMT
#1077
Sick post fuba.

Basically I trusted thrawn because I know I'm town and he said I was town.

But is there room for all these power roles?

I want acro to really come clean. Are you seriously Jessica rabbit vt? Because that would be very fucked up.

The thing is, the flavor is not as straight forward as heros and villians. People have claimed names from the movie who shot roger rabbit...Jessica rabbit, whatever acme . these are characters from that movie and they aren't villians.
fuba either the flavor is not as straightforward as you think or acro prome and thrawn are all scum or sk.
OMGUS.net, kush sex blogs every friday night
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain17911 Posts
November 06 2012 22:20 GMT
#1078
Wait, there's one pretty serious issue. If thrawn is scum, and not a 1-shot cop, there is extra KP on N1...
mkfuba07
Profile Joined November 2010
United States1151 Posts
November 06 2012 22:23 GMT
#1079
I'm not the one who thought the flavor was straightforward.
Never trust a skinny innkeeper
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain17911 Posts
November 06 2012 22:23 GMT
#1080
In case that was too cryptic: if the SK is bulletproof and scum shot him, then they did NOT shoot Mat or Zealos.

That means we have a vig. It is theoretically possible, but we'll have to see whether the KP works out tonight.

Anybody feel like claiming vig?
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