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Another quick note on iamp
Hapas case i think is one of the best i have ever seen and marvs refusal to give reads is just the confirmation in my eyes. Despite what he says he is just stalling for as much time as possible in hopes that something happens. I know bullshit when i see and and his request to wait for tomorrow is bullshit.
What? How is being @2am in the morning and being pissed not a good excuse to go sleep? This seems to me like a pathetic reason he needed to add to go with his vote.
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On October 25 2012 00:30 Z-BosoN wrote:Another quick note on iampShow nested quote +Hapas case i think is one of the best i have ever seen and marvs refusal to give reads is just the confirmation in my eyes. Despite what he says he is just stalling for as much time as possible in hopes that something happens. I know bullshit when i see and and his request to wait for tomorrow is bullshit. What? How is being @2am in the morning and being pissed not a good excuse to go sleep? This seems to me like a pathetic reason he needed to add to go with his vote. marv loves to win he has told me on multiple occasions and you shouldnt believe everything some one says. Marv had plenty of time and instead he decided to shout at hapa and pretend to be mad. Go read hapas case the real reason that marv didnt give reads is he knows everything in that case is basically true.
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United Kingdom36156 Posts
Kei, I'm around and still reading the thread, but right now I don't want to half-arse anything. I'm going to have to take 2-3 hours at home this evening to collate everything that I need to in both defence and scumread terms.
For now I will tell you you are not in my top 2 reads. Your explanations on Z-Bo were sincere and at some points compelling, and you were willing to admit you were backing off him a little.
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iamp, since when were you Hapa's lapdog? it's a bit pathetic.
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marv bro, where are your reads? you promised them in the morning, and you're not making good.
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On October 25 2012 00:44 marvellosity wrote: iamp, since when were you Hapa's lapdog? it's a bit pathetic. just call them as i see them brah
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On October 25 2012 00:46 drazak wrote: marv bro, where are your reads? you promised them in the morning, and you're not making good.
I promised them today, and I work Monday - Friday. Normally I am able to post reasonably often at work because every post only takes some minutes. The posts I need to require are not 5 minute jobs.
You hypocritical little nub.
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yeah man, ad hominem is certainly the answer, I was open with my reads when people asked me, try again please.
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United Kingdom36156 Posts
On October 25 2012 00:55 drazak wrote: yeah man, ad hominem is certainly the answer, I was open with my reads when people asked me, try again please.
No, you were absent for long periods and you're now chasing me for something which is yet to come, and will come.
But I'll deal with you later.
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Allright, giving my current thoughts on Hapa's case, and soon (later today, hopefully) will read the filters and give my general input of the game.
There are some things I agree very strongly. In my laptop, I have some notes on marv, and one of them is "seems detached from the game". I noted this especially during his measly contributions after my mud-slinging with Hapa, and immediately afterwards, when there was a lot going on.
Marv's Lack of Suspicion This point, however true, I do not find to be inherently scummy. I think this because of two reasons: 1) I have a bunch of town reads myself. This game it is very easy to make town reads, it seems to me. The people who are in it have very distinct town filter from scum filter. 2) If marv is scum, the last thing he wants to say is that multiple people in a 9-player game are town. People generally take a lot of faith into what he says, and really, if he wants to avert suspicion it doesn't come off to me as the smart thing to do. This of course is a double-edged sword. He can also be "buying" town points by giving townies confidence that he knows what's up. But I'm inclined to think the former point. Also, read this post as carefully as you possibly can and see if it doesn't give sense to it: + Show Spoiler +On October 22 2012 05:50 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On October 22 2012 05:38 austinmcc wrote:On October 22 2012 05:32 marvellosity wrote:On October 22 2012 05:18 austinmcc wrote: See what happens when I don't explain my full thought process in spoilers! nuh uh sweetie, this is what happens when people don't read and process what's been written properly. In my longish post having read the thread for the first time I said: On October 21 2012 21:03 marvellosity wrote:vaderseven - for lack of content, firstly. But more tellingly for the manner of his posts. He mixes in the cute little posts - "what do you want to know about mes" and the little fun facts about his rolling mafia. In between those posts, though, are sarcastic and patronising posts that are really easy for scum to make because it makes them look like they know what's going on without actually have to contribute anything. Hapa - did you get shot? which is basically what you were saying about the DP situation but worded slightly differently, and it's what I had taken from your posts. Maybe it was easier for me to understand as I'd read similar things from the DP affair as you had. Maaaaaaaaaaaaaaan. What do you make of keirathi's post in the middle of the DP stuff? I'm not exactly sure. A couple of posts later in his filter he explains he was just calling out bullshit and didn't read anything alignment-y from it. But then if that's the case, then the contributions were just pointless and not really contributions. I think Kei is playing pretty scummily - but what gives me pause is in his recent post, he just told town he doesn't really have any reads. Given he's under some pressure, it makes little sense for a scum Kei to do that. But then I find myself going around in stupid little wifom circles. What do you think? I don't have these little niggles about vader, so I'd quite like to hammer him. But we're still going places with discussion so I'm loathe to right now. Z-bo, are you sure that part of your read on Hapa isn't that you're putting him on a pedestal and placing unreasonable expectation from his posting? I'm getting that vibe from what you're posting about him.
Over Consistency This point has some strength to it. Even though he was dealing with other aspects of the game, his lack of analysis is pretty weird. Games differ from each other, and I can sympathize with v7.
Emotional Detatchment Now this is VERY strong. Like I said earlier, I had that feeling for quite some time, but didn't invest too much in it yet because ... it's marv, lol. Anyways, your point on Kei was spot on. It is pretty clear the difference in attitude he's had in regards to his emotions. His vote on v7 came late and... I dunno. Marv is good in recognizing some town tendencies. Every time we talk he always gives some explanation as to why someone so scummy-looking might be town (look at the level of detail he had on his town read on me, when I mentioned "Go away, shoo") The fact that he lynched v7 without giving any sort of attempt on that seems off... I'm kind of just casually strolling by and throwing that out there, but I don't think this argument is worth a turd, but it's just how I feel, don't jump on my nuts about it.
The Insta-lynch Mechanic This is also reasonable in it's own rights. Those two games show a very big contrast in play. Like you said though, this alone isn't inherently a strong tell, games are always under different circumstances, but it's definitely something to note.
Conclusion I began to consider marv a possible scum candidate by pure elimination. Like I said earlier, giving town reads this game is pretty hard not to do, and once I removed the people I had slight reads on, the people who remained were: Kei, marv, Drazal and iamp. If you can convince me why Kei is such a strong town read (be as scummy as you can about that, I really want to know), then that really shortens my top suspects list to three people. Of course, odds are that at least one of my town reads are extremely off and that I'll need to reevaluate. But for now, I'm sticking with these.
Right now I don't want to lynch marv however, especially due to number 2) of your first (or second? don't want to scroll up ) point. I kind of feel strongly about this. Let me know what you think of it.
With that, my head is turned towards iamp and drazak. I feel less strongly on drazak, because even after reading his filter I was 10x more confused than I was certain about his alignment. Will turn towards iamp's filter when I have more time later tonight, and post what I think.
My strongest town reads at the moment are Hapa and austinmcc (yea, green, bold, that much. Sue me). In no way can I view them being scum right now with the amount they have been posting and the sincerity of their posts. I'm of course always scared of hapa, but I'll consider him next only if we face-off again in lylo.
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I don't think Hapa has a particularly strong "town" read on me, just a strong "not-scum-with-Marv" read? Presumably because I made the same case points he did, before he did.
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He does kei
On October 24 2012 10:36 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +On October 24 2012 10:33 DarthPunk wrote: Hapa. Seriously ask yourself. Would Scum bus at this point? and if not who out of the 4 not voting for him is likely to be his buddy?
I had 2 candidates for marvs scum buddy. They both voted for him straight off the bat. I can't see any of the others being buddied with marv aside from ZB who you think is town. We'll cross that road when we get there. I can see anyone being mafia #2 with marv with the exception of Kei. And no I don't think bussing is unreasonable here. I think my case is strong, and I think it's worth it for scum to bus here. However, I don't want to go down that road of analysis until I see marv flip for myself.
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Morning folks
On October 25 2012 01:32 Keirathi wrote: I don't think Hapa has a particularly strong "town" read on me, just a strong "not-scum-with-Marv" read? Presumably because I made the same case points he did, before he did.
Yeah it's not so much your play - it's associative. Bussing is horrendously risky with only 2 scum-members, and if marv is scum, I doubt he'd spend so much time putting heat on you throughout D1 and D2 - ESPECIALLY since you were a target of suspicion.
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Yes, but note what he said. He could see anyone being scum WITH MARV, except for me. Which, technically works out the same, since he is dead sure that Marv is scum. But, if Marv flipped town (which I'm having trouble believing at this point), I don't think Hapa would be eliminating me as a suspect. He seems to think I am town only because he doesn't think I am scum with Marv.
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On October 25 2012 01:38 Hapahauli wrote:Morning folks Show nested quote +On October 25 2012 01:32 Keirathi wrote: I don't think Hapa has a particularly strong "town" read on me, just a strong "not-scum-with-Marv" read? Presumably because I made the same case points he did, before he did. Yeah it's not so much your play - it's associative. Bussing is horrendously risky with only 2 scum-members, and if marv is scum, I doubt he'd spend so much time putting heat on you throughout D1 and D2 - ESPECIALLY since you were a target of suspicion. That's a risky way of thinking. In GSL 1, I spent quite a lot of time being "suspicious" of prplhz, and relying on townies (mainly marv) to shut me down and keep him from getting lynched. But, I would have bussed him in a heartbeat :o
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On October 25 2012 01:45 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On October 25 2012 01:38 Hapahauli wrote:Morning folks On October 25 2012 01:32 Keirathi wrote: I don't think Hapa has a particularly strong "town" read on me, just a strong "not-scum-with-Marv" read? Presumably because I made the same case points he did, before he did. Yeah it's not so much your play - it's associative. Bussing is horrendously risky with only 2 scum-members, and if marv is scum, I doubt he'd spend so much time putting heat on you throughout D1 and D2 - ESPECIALLY since you were a target of suspicion. That's a risky way of thinking. In GSL 1, I spent quite a lot of time being "suspicious" of prplhz, and relying on townies (mainly marv) to shut me down and keep him from getting lynched. But, I would have bussed him in a heartbeat :o
Perhaps, but the problem here is that townies weren't really shutting marv down - especially early N1. I may or may not reconsider after marv flips with new analysis and all of that, but that's where I stand right now.
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On October 25 2012 02:09 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +On October 25 2012 01:45 Keirathi wrote:On October 25 2012 01:38 Hapahauli wrote:Morning folks On October 25 2012 01:32 Keirathi wrote: I don't think Hapa has a particularly strong "town" read on me, just a strong "not-scum-with-Marv" read? Presumably because I made the same case points he did, before he did. Yeah it's not so much your play - it's associative. Bussing is horrendously risky with only 2 scum-members, and if marv is scum, I doubt he'd spend so much time putting heat on you throughout D1 and D2 - ESPECIALLY since you were a target of suspicion. That's a risky way of thinking. In GSL 1, I spent quite a lot of time being "suspicious" of prplhz, and relying on townies (mainly marv) to shut me down and keep him from getting lynched. But, I would have bussed him in a heartbeat :o Perhaps, but the problem here is that townies weren't really shutting marv down - especially early N1. I may or may not reconsider after marv flips with new analysis and all of that, but that's where I stand right now. Yea, I mean I understand what you're saying. I obviously know that I am town. But I'm okay with you NOT knowing that I am town. Marv is a tricksy fucker as scum.
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do you guys think dp slipped?
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That's interesting. I'll have to take a look at it, and this is especially strange since everyone had a strong town read on him yesterday.
That's probably something I'll deal with more tonight or after marv gets lynched.
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@iamp I'll look more into DP later. If you really think he's scum, go for it.
@Hapahauli Thoughts on my thoughts?
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