EPT/in
Edit: Wait no, in fact, DIAF would be too nice for your epic transgression against my honour. Here, this link is more apt: + Show Spoiler +
Newbie Mini Mafia XXIX
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Alsn
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/in Edit: Wait no, in fact, DIAF would be too nice for your epic transgression against my honour. Here, this link is more apt: + Show Spoiler + | ||
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On October 12 2012 10:56 Dandel Ion wrote: This comment in particular stands out to me. This is an obvious attempt at derailing the thread, adding absolutely nothing of substance. It reeks of OMGUS.Why are you calling Alan by his name then? So inconsitent.... Scum imo. I'm calling for a vigi shot on Dandel. | ||
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I'm Alsn and I've played in two mafias here on TL as well as a bunch of times using the SC2 custom map. My filters for those games can be found here(first game) and here(second game). I was an active observer in XXVII and the obs QT for that can be found here. With that out of the way, gl hf! | ||
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With regards to other policy, what would that be, exactly? I'm all in favour of logical policy lynching. If an argument can be made that town benefits from it I'm all for it(see my thoughts on kush from my first few posts last game if you're interested in an example of why I think so). There's no player in this game that warrants such a lynch though, unless we are talking behavioural policy, but I'm not really familiar with any example of that so I would have to address such policy on a case by case basis. A few things stood out to me when I skimmed through the thread earlier today and I'll be posting some of my comments on what has actually happened so far over the course of the evening. | ||
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On October 26 2012 01:45 Dandel Ion wrote: It goes even deeper than that. It's not that people go into a game planning to lurk and hope people don't notice. It's that scum would like to get away without taking any positions at all. Forcing everyone to at least say something then gives us the option of holding them to what they have said. The idea being that together town should be able to figure out who are fake-contributing versus those who are genuinely trying to help.You don't get it. You establish a lurker-lynch policy early. Potential lurkers see it and go all "oh shit if I lurk I'm gonna die" So they don't lurk. If you say "nah I'm completely against lynching lurkers" or "We should lynch the most active people" What do lurkers do when they see that? They'll tell themselves "cool, I'm set" And then they lurk. I'd like to say that so far, I agree that Roco seems suspicious, but more than anything else, he just makes no sense. More than anything else that's a null read to me, especially with how early in the game we are. However, if his play doesn't change dramatically I would say he is at risk for getting a vote from me simply due to being unhelpful to town. @Roco specifically, lynching people who talk too much just for talking is anti-town. We want people to talk a lot as that gives us material to base our opinions on them on. Take yourself right now for example, no one other than mafia have any idea about what to make of you right now, thus resulting in your participation amounting to one thing and one thing only: Confusion. So far, I'm getting a slight town vibe from debears, although I think his arguments are a lot weaker than last game, and his conclusions seem a bit convoluted(particularly with regards to Rad. I didn't think Rad's posting seemed all that suspicious so debears jumping on it so hard is weird to me). That being said, putting himself "out there" as much as he has done so far feels pro-town. Djod on the other hand actually comes across as somewhat scummy to me. I'll have time to post a case on it soonish. | ||
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The problem I have with it so far is that you keep asking people to answer you, yet your own statements so far amount to picking on the people who are being lurky(Ini, Roco) while at the same time criticising Rad for supporting lurker policy lynch?! This makes no sense to me. This in combination with the slip leads me to believe that you are trying to make yourself look good by being active. I can definitely see the possibility of there being town motivations for your actions so far, but I'd just like to point out that I have my eye on you. So, with that in mind, FoS Djodref. I'll see if I can't take a look at some of the other things said so far before I go to bed but if not, I'll do it first thing tomorrow as I will have a lot more time then. | ||
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First impressions are that Djodref seemed way more defensive than he needed to be towards my accusation. It was merely meant as a prod(which he probably realized) yet he felt the need to resort to insulting me as a way to discredit my points. If nothing else, it has sparked a ton of discussion, so I'm happy about that. To clarify, Djod does still feel slightly scummy to me, yet I'm still not convinced about him being town or scum as his actions can definitely be explained from both perspectives if one tries to. His main redeeming action to me is his willingness to stick to his guns and pressure Inig even though he was under pressure himself. I see that as a more townie move than a scum move, yet with all the other things brought up against him I don't feel that it's enough to clear his name. That being said, my reads so far amount to mostly very slight reads in one way or the other. I think my strongest reads so far are Rad/debears who are looking both pretty towny, simply due to how willing they are to put themselves out there. If nothing else they have given us a lot of things to put into context once people start to flip, which is very good for town. Right now I'd be in favour of lynching a lurker, simply due to the fact that I don't consider Djodref to be a strong enough of a read to me at this point. To sum up, I feel the benefits of getting rid of a non-contributor such as Roco currently outweighs the chance of Djodref flipping scum. Although Roco if you are still following the thread and haven't given up, posting your own feelings about the topics in the thread so far would go a long way towards eliminating suspicion against you. I'll take a look at Inig's points regarding Dandel, but unless I missed something extremely incriminating when I read through it the first time I'd still be in favour of lynching a lurker. | ||
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That being said, especially in context with my stance on lynching a lurker, I'm getting the distinct feeling that there's a good chance Roco won't even be voting. With that in mind, I'll vote him or one of the other no-shows only if they show up to vote really late just to save their own skins with no other contributions. I'd prefer to see what happens with them once the day changes rather than lynch one of them and hope they randomly flip scum. For that reason, I'm going to go with my strongest scum read so far, Djodref. Like I said though, I don't really feel like we have particularly good odds on him(only slightly better than random), but at the very least people have actually committed to taking stances on him and been forced to explain why. We would gain nothing by lynching a possible modkill who has said basically nothing, as no one could really be blamed for wanting them gone. I say this with the caveat that I haven't yet had time to look into everyone, sylver for example is someone I haven't yet looked at very closely. Same with Inig, CC and da0ud. I've read the thread of course, but I haven't had time to try and put their motivations in perspective so far. If someone can make a better case than what I feel we have right now, I'd be open to looking it over as a possibility. I regret my lack of time so far, as I feel right now I'm voting without a clear picture of where I have everyone. ##Vote: Djodref Will be looking over the other cases made so far to see if maybe there are better reasons than my own to be found, but for now I'm not yet convinced by anyone. | ||
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In fact, Dandel states that he finds Inig's play worrying due to him not taking any stances on anything but when Inig finally does(shares a lot of his reads, some town and with Dandel as his main scum read) Dandel goes around and votes him right away. I'm hesitant to call this anything else than an emotional knee-jerk response, but in any case I don't find it a particularly compelling argument as to why I should vote for Inig. | ||
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Seeing as you've said very little so far, I'd appreciate it if you could tell us what you think with regards to the current lynch candidates. If nothing else, It would give the rest of us some insight into what you think. If you have a different case to make that is fine too, but we all have very little information as to what you think right now. | ||
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I'm not sure if you're purposefully trying to distract the issue or if you genuinely misunderstood my criticism of you but I'm inclined to let my vote stay for now. However, I will definitely be checking the thread for the next 5-6 hours to see if there's any reason for me to change it. I'd just like to remind everyone that I can not be here for lynch like I stated during pre-game. Exam starts tomorrow at 8:30 local time and lynch is at 02:00. At the very latest I'll be here until ~3 hours before lynch. | ||
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On October 27 2012 00:07 Djodref wrote: Ok that makes a little more sense. I'm thinking I might have misread your intentions for attacking them. My vote still stands but expect me to gather my thoughts on this matter in the coming hours.@Alsn I didn't attack them for lurking, I have attacked them because - Roco was posting nonsense - Inig was not showing any scumhunting in his posts, only fluff I didn't find something as suspicious as that in other players posts. Maybe the role-fishing question from sylver but that's all. Nevertheless, I understand your criticism better now. I would have appreciated if you have made this post before. And there is a difference between applying a policy and trying to find what is scummy. Even in lurker's posts. | ||
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I'm inclined to agree with kush wrt to da0ud. I definitely reacted much in a similar way when I read the 90% town comment but more than that I feel like he is too concerned with pointing out to people that he "cares" about the town. Such as here where he feels the need to point out that it's worrying that we are already one less town. On October 26 2012 23:07 da0ud wrote: One thing worries me and seems to have caught no ones attention. Clarity has been modkilled!! We are already one less town!! And he was posting actual content. Or here where he feels the need to point out that he was "right" to criticise the whole confidence deal. On October 26 2012 22:33 da0ud wrote: As I was expecting in the beginning we are having a hard time finding with "confidence" scum. Both posts are screaming of "posting for the sake of seeming active and helpful" more than actually being helpful. In summary, I feel that even on the off chance that Djod is scum, so far he has at the very least helped town in that he has pressured players into participating, which at the very least is good for the town atmosphere. There's of course the risk that he's deliberately pressuring townies into seeming suspicious, but for now I think that's a chance I'm willing to take. ##Unvote ##Vote: da0ud | ||
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I simply didn't realise that you had made a case against Djod(in my mind I probably attributed that long post of yours to someone else when I initially read it). I was using the votes to find out which filters to look at and your filter simply wasn't on my radar due to that. I'll look into the cases right now. | ||
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I read through your case against Djod and I definitely recall reading it before. I definitely agree that your latter points make a lot of sense, but I'm not yet convinced that they are necessarily scum motivated. For example his willingness to "let you take care of Rad" can definitely be interpreted as a genuine unwillingness to take a stance on the matter. However, it can also simply mean that he feels he would rather discuss his own case. It is definitely true that he had been poking a lot of people about Inig at that point and I don't see it as a given that he wasn't simply concerned with wanting people to answer his questions. For now, I think I'll stick to my argument that I think even if we lynch someone else and it's a mislynch, Djod has definitely been at least somewhat helpful to town. da0ud while a possible "bad townie" has been unhelpful in almost every single way. The da0ud argument can also be made for Roco but at this point if Roco isn't replaced or modkilled(due to last minute participation) he will have a lot of things to answer for in D2. | ||
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The risk is that he'll flip green which wouldn't necessarily be very helpful, but at this point I don't personally see a better option. | ||
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From my point of view it seems like it's going to be Inig or da0ud today. For me I'm finding both of them slightly scummy but I'm not nearly convinced enough to stake anything on that fact. As such I'm going to stick with my da0ud vote for the reasons I stated earlier in the thread. If nothing else me sticking to him will at least give you all a choice as to who will be lynched(since Inig seems to be the popular choice atm, although only very slightly). I'd urge all townies to pick one of the candidates and state your reasons for doing so well in time for the lynch just so that there is no possibility for scum to do any last minute vote switch funny business. In a hypothetical scenario of a 6-6 split or similar it's much too easy for a single scum to make up some last minute excuse about feeling uncertain in order to justify a vote switch and cause a mislynch. It's much better if any potential tie-breaker scenario plays out well in advance of the deadline so that there is less chance of confusion. I'll try and check in before my test tomorrow, but if I don't wake up early enough I probably won't post until some time in the evening(~7-8 hours before the end of N1). | ||
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With that out of the way, I managed to stay somewhat updated during the exam and saw the results of the lynch before I left this morning. Da0ud flipping blue makes me a sad panda but on the other hand I don't yet have a clear picture of what exactly happened after I went to sleep so I will need to gather my thoughts before I can comment in more detail. Expect more from me this evening, I'll be staying up until D2 starts so hopefully I'll be able to produce something of value before then. | ||
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I have difficulty accepting that kush preferring da0ud over Inig is somehow a scum tell. Truth be told the lynch targets we had available were all quite weak so he can hardly be blamed for preferring da0ud over someone else. However, two things do stand out to me. Like debears pointed out kush seems to be very selective in the way he argues meta. That in itself isn't necessarily a scum tell, meta reads have a tendency to be more "feel" than anything else. The thing I'm referring to with regards to his meta is his claim that he doesn't know debears meta. That's almost definitely a lie or at the very least some massive laziness, neither of which is very pro-town. The second point that I can agree can be seen as scummy about kush is that he presented his case against da0ud after I had called da0ud out for making very little sense. Scum using someone else's suspicions against another player is a very easy way to get a case to stick, especially in the situation we had where there was no real clear scum candidate for lynch. However, I would like to point out that I reacted to da0ud's Inig vote very quickly after he posted it. This means that it would be almost impossible for anyone, scum or no, to make an original case against da0ud. To me this means that we can't just jump on kush for using "my idea" to call out da0ud as scummy. I think we can all agree that da0ud was making very little sense at that point in the game and as such I think kush's actions towards da0ud is a null tell at best. I will look more closely into how kush acted towards other players however. If an argument can be made that preferring da0ud over Inig was actually scummy, then I'd be willing to see it as a scum tell, but with the information we have right now I just can't do that. I'm definitely suspicious about his attempts to discredit debears, so all in all I think kush is leaning towards slightly scummy. | ||
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On October 28 2012 03:08 kushm4sta wrote: You may have been dead, but you participated in the obs QT well after you were killed. I can fetch the link to the QT to prove it.How is it a lie that I don't know debears meta lol... I don't even remember which game I played with him in full. In other I was dead within hours basically lol. Like I said however, it could simply just be you being massively lazy and not wanting to remember, which is why I concluded that you're pretty much null to me so far or at the very least until we get more info. | ||
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The players that I don't really have much of an opinion on are Inig, cheese, sylver and dandel(and roco....). I need to look through their filters more closely now that I have more time and will definitely do that tonight. Debears behaviour so far(with a few exceptions, notably the outbursts) reads pretty town to me. I don't think I would be able to conclude anything else by scrutinising him any further than I've done so far. Rad also seems slightly town to me, although I haven't looked at him all that much lately. I'm pretty sure I'll have a clearer picture of all the players before daybreak and should be able to at least post something describing what that picture looks like. | ||
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On October 28 2012 03:38 kushm4sta wrote: Fine then. I'll drop that part of my slight suspicions against you. Barring more information I probably consider you slight town at this point then.I participated in the qt but I didn't follow the game close at,all. ,you can see from some of my posts that I have no idea what's going on. | ||
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On October 28 2012 04:36 kushm4sta wrote: I stated before the game even started that I had university entrance exams today. People even pointed it out.Just noticed something No he didn't, unless it was in your scum qt. | ||
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Also, I'd like to point out that there *is* the possibility of masons in this setup. So even if your premise had been correct(that the information debears referred to was in a QT) the argument could be made for that being a null tell. | ||
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I can definitely see now that Inig was at least somewhat lynch worthy leading up to the end of the day. I think his arguments are a bit weak but at the very least he is trying. I'm leaning either slightly scummy or inexperienced townie but I'm having a hard time deciding which. The way he handled his case against Dandel makes me lean slightly towards inexperienced townie. It just doesn't seem like a good scum strategy, or even a bad one. Sylver looks scummy to me, however like Inig he could just be playing a poor town game. He's basically playing the same way Djodref is(lots of banter, not much content). I'm not yet sure of what to make of the fact that he has gone after Djod hard(whom I as you should all well know by now I am suspicious of). I find it very unlikely that they are both scum and setting up a bus this early. Dandel is a null tell to me, possibly leaning somewhat scummy. He has been very outspoken but at the same time he hasn't really said all that much either. I'm inclined to agree slightly with Inig's case against him, yet I feel his alignment is a toss up right now. However, Roco and Nackh seriously need to start posting. With how not very certain I am about the few scum reads I have I'm inclined to believe that either I'm wrong about one/some of my town reads, or one of them might indeed be scum. I think that's about as much as I can accomplish tonight. I've had a pretty long day. If I survive the night I'll look more closely on the specific cases that people have made tomorrow(so far I've mostly noted who they've been suspicious about and how strongly, not so much the why's) as I just haven't had the time to go very much in depth so far. Strongest scum read is still Djod, slightly stronger than before the lynch, but I'm still not nearly certain. | ||
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I still find him my biggest scum read however. Cheese case is a pretty nice summary of why I think so, although I don't agree with necessarily everything(I'm more and more willing to let that first "slip" just be him chatting da0ud up) I have yet to see him be very concerned for town in any non-superficial way. That being said, I think we need to stand back and consider the possibilities at hand. We are 9 people alive out of 13, if we assume the second NK was a vigi shot, there's 6 town vs 3 scum, giving us at least one more lynch where we can gather information so lets make it count. If on the other hand the second NK was done by a likely SK(likely due to 2 blue's already having flipped) we are 5 vs 3 vs 1. Another mislynch would make town entirely dependant on SK and that's definitely a situation that is scary. SK of course also want's mafia dead but I can imagine that it'd be difficult to work with someone who has their own agenda. So basically, this lynch is important any way you slice it. | ||
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No matter what scum killed either kush or sylver and both of them suspected you Djod. You can be "pretty sure" however much you want but that still doesn't change the fact that you shouldn't be able to be pretty sure. Either you know, suggesting the charges against you by for example Dandel is legitimate, or you are sure of something for no apparent reason. We have no clue whatsoever as to what scum want us to think. Kush was the most experienced player here, it could just mean that they wanted him gone for that reason. Or he said something which made sense that they wanted to cover up, or it was the SK/Vigi like you suggest, yet we have no idea at this point. | ||
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Looking at the situation right now, the only one at risk of lynching seems to be Djodref. More importantly, he seems to be completely alone in his plight. I think he's scummy, but this fact alone leads me to believe that one of the following three options must be true:
Looking at these scenarios, and I'm convinced they're the only ones possible, I find the last one to be extremely unlikely. While myself and others have at times at least questioned whether or not Djod was all that super scummy, no one that I know has ever diverted a hypothetical Djod lynch unless it was done very subtly. In fact, the only argument that I feel can be made that he is scum and other scum has diverted attention away from him is the lynches against Inig and da0ud. Kush(and admittedly to a lesser extent myself) were responsible for the latter, while the lynch against Inig was Djod himself in tandem with debears(and possibly someone else, I don't remember, please correct me here if I'm wrong). Lastly, Djod actually switched his vote from Inig to da0ud and was the last one to do so IIRC. To me, scum "securing" a lynch on a townie makes no sense whatsoever. The only ones at risk of actually vote switching near a lynch are actual scum, so protecting themselves against a switch is meaningless. That to me leaves the first two options and in both of them Djod is not scum. Sure, he could be SK and his actions don't really dispute that but to be honest, I would rather have a possible SK(and I'm not convinced he is) left alone and actually try and lynch mafia. Mostly because an SK isn't that worrisome if we still have a pretty good town vs scum majority. For that reason, I looked at the possibilities left. Either scum is keeping really quiet and all of us accusing Djod are town, or scum are in fact trying to get Djod lynched. I find the latter more likely, although unfortunately I don't really have a good explanation for why I think that is, it's basically just a hunch, although not an insignificant one. With that in mind, I went through both Mr. Cheese' and Dandel's filters and lo and behold, upon closer inspection I can't really find any good reasons to think that they are town. Sure, Cheese hasn't done anything particularly scummy but looking at his behaviour as a whole he hasn't done anything particularly town either. Basically, Cheese's actions amount to suspecting Djod and... well, that's pretty much it. Apart from arguing semantics and policy, that's pretty much his entire contribution. On the other hand, Dandel is in the same boat, with added baggage in fact. His contributions also amount to pretty much only suspecting Djod but with the added bonus that he said several times that he would tunnel kush, seemingly for no apparent reason. In fact I think the SK/vig(whoever it may be) killing kush actually messed things up quite a bit as I'm now thinking Dandel's entire plan was to tunnel kush simply because he's not a very hard target to attack(for those of you who are new, kush has a... let's say "vivid", reputation). Especially since he got a townie lynched. Finally, almost every single post of Dandel so far in the game has been fluffy at best, scummy at worst. He kept bringing up policy voting well after most people had started talking about it, as if he wanted the discussion to continue. His so called "case" on Inig was pure OMGUS and finally, his unwillingness to actually switch from that OMGUS case even though he actually admitted himself that it wasn't a very good case. In fact, the two people that could have actually been switched to were either Djod(who he at the time had said he wasn't convinced was scummy) and da0ud(for reasons I now suspect he didn't want to be associated with vote flipping onto a townie). So, to sum up my case for why Dandel Ion is scum
I'd like to hear people's thoughts on this matter, since I'm feeling pretty good about my case at this point. Oh and, ##Vote: Dandel Ion | ||
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On October 28 2012 22:06 Dandel Ion wrote: Ask and you shall receive.@everyone: Please be so kind as to share your current scumreads. Or even thoughts. Or anything at all, really. Even what you had for lunch is more interesting than NOTHING AT ALL. | ||
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But we also need to consider the very real possibility that Roco gets modkilled and flips town. Sure he could be scum and hope is great and all but we can't in any way distance ourselves from the possibility that we are only 4 town left in the game. | ||
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"Openly disagree with your whole post", seriously? You expect me to let you off the hook by saying I'm stupid and terrible without even pointing out why my post is terrible? I love it how you try and discredit me purely on the basis that you think I'm bad. In fact, you are doing the exact same thing almost the entire thread criticised Djod for doing(with good reason I might add). This only reinforces my case against you, two people have called you out so far, first Inig, then me. Both times you've reacted with "Y U SO TERRIBAD?!?!". I expect better than that if you want me to consider you anything but almost confirmed scum. | ||
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On October 28 2012 23:25 Dandel Ion wrote: His case making sense means at the very least the actions involving his case should make him read town which is very relevant indeed. Please bring up examples of where he was "scummy" before your first announcement that you would tunnel him because I sure can't find any.If his case made sense or not wasn't even the point that made me think he was scum, you're making up things now. | ||
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[QUOTE]On October 28 2012 23:28 Alsn wrote: Maybe that's because he didn't POST before I said that? I said that because it's Kush, not because of posts. Which you could've found out if you were capable of counting. Or reading.[/QUOTE]Truth be told, I didn't actually look it up because I was already sure that I'd be right. So basically, you said you would tunnel kush before you had any idea what his alignment was. Except I propose you did know, and you were counting on lynching him D2. | ||
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On October 28 2012 23:30 Dandel Ion wrote: Maybe that's because he didn't POST before I said that? I said that because it's Kush, not because of posts. Which you could've found out if you were capable of counting. Or reading. Truth be told, I didn't actually look it up because I was already sure that I'd be right. So basically, you said you would tunnel kush before you had any idea what his alignment was. Except I propose you did know, and you were counting on lynching him D2. Fixed sorry. | ||
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On October 28 2012 23:36 Dandel Ion wrote: Now you're just putting words in his mouth. Just on the last page he said he wanted Cheese to find his supposed scum buddies *without* association.So you WANT people to make association cases? I'm not sure you understand how this works. Also, if your buddies are both lurkers, that's also an explanaition for the lack of defense. | ||
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What has he done for town? | ||
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Also, I think we can without a doubt conclude that we now know scum killed sylver. Regardless if Rad is SK or vigi I see no reason whatsoever to lie about who he actually shot. As if he's SK now that he has claimed that he can kill someone he has to be wanting to try and come off as a vigi and a vigi would under no circumstance lie about his target. | ||
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To be honest though, maybe it's because I wasn't able to follow the thread continuously that I didn't really feel kush was acting all that scummy, or maybe it's because I'm just used to him acting like a douche bag that I'm unable to see it in the proper context. Either way, the risk is that we would have spent the entire day arguing about him and mislynching him which would have been even worse than the situation we are in right now. | ||
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I'm not sure of what to make of his argument towards kush if I am to believe he is a "ba townie". He does take a pretty firm stance to argue that kush "makes sense" at times, but then uses that single "djo is scum btw guys" oneliner from kush to somehow justify himself not trusting kush? From where I'm standing, other than his conclusion he was painting a vivid picture of kush acting very pro-town yet for some reason concludes that he's null/uncertain towards kush. This definitely agrees with my hunch that scum wanted to lynch kush today. Writing all the good things about him might then be signs of Inig having knowledge about kush's alignment leaving himself an option to say later on in the game "Look guys, I wasn't all that convinced kush was scum in the first place!". I'm thinking if Inig was truly town he shouldn't have been able to come to that conclusion based on so little "scummy evidence". That being said, he did say he wanted to try and find a different lynch target for today. Seeing as kush is dead and we can't possibly lynch him, I'm waiting with great interest to see who exactly Inig would prefer to lynch. | ||
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That being said, Inig did say he wanted to try and find a different lynch target for today. Seeing as kush is dead and we can't possibly lynch him, I'm waiting with great interest to see who exactly he would prefer to lynch. | ||
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If you're still here nackh, I don't even know if you've read the thread so far, but who would you like to lynch and why? You can be brief if you want. | ||
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I'll take another hard look at Djod and Inig tomorrow but I'm definitely in favour of lynching Dandel right now. I'm heading off to bed as I need to be up early tomorrow. | ||
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In my opinion my case against Dandel stands entirely on its own. That being said, debears did indeed point out some interesting points with regards to Dandel's meta which I need to consider. To be honest, I'm getting the distinct feeling that even IF Djod is scum, his scum buddies almost has to be roco + nackh, or one of them and one of the players that has been playing "safe", although who that would be I have no idea. Lastly, while I think we can't discount the possibility that Djod is SK and that both him and scum/Rad shot the same target, I find it extremely unlikely. I have no idea why an SK would shoot either kush or sylver. I think I need to consider just what our chances would be if I'm to go along with a Djod lynch over Dandel. I'm almost at the point where I'm starting to get worried that both of them will flip green - however unlikely that is - and scum has been fooling us all along. Although if that is indeed the case, I don't think we stand much of a chance to be honest. I'll get back with some non-ramblings soonish, I really just wanted to point out that you can't just look at my case against Dandel and dismiss it just because I'm WIFOMing wrt Djod. | ||
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I guess that means we need to consider nackh a player, but Roco at the very least doesn't "count" as it is right now. Nackh did say that he was going to try and post something today, although he wasn't exactly convincing when he stated such. I'm hoping he at least tries to post something. As of right now my top scum read is still Dandel as I think his attitude towards kush is extremely incriminating. Declaring right off the bat that he's not going to give someone the benefit of the doubt in my mind clearly means that he will hold everything against him, no matter what. That's just not pro-town play at all. What I really need to consider however is just how scummy I think Djod(and to some extent Inig) really is. I'll get back on that subject later today, hopefully well before lynch. | ||
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Which means that assuming you're vigi Rad, we have a 66% chance of lynching town if we go for one of them. 33% chance of scum while better than a D1 lurker lynch, it's not by much. Basically, even though I'd prefer to lynch Dandel right now, I'd much rather lynch Djod or even Inig over one of the lurkers if it comes to a choice like that. | ||
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On October 30 2012 00:55 nackhtjogger wrote: Yes, don't be afraid to share your thoughts. Please elaborate on why you want to lynch Cheese. I have some thoughts about cheese myself that I'd like to see if you share.Not sure about Dan or Djo, If you want to lynch scum I'd go for Cheesecake. I haven't read the whole thread yet though, so what do I know. ##Vote: Cheesecake *hides as angry mob runs by wanting to kick his ass for reading so damn slow | ||
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Ok, here's the deal with my stance on Djod. I've thought long and hard on whether or not I actually think he's scum. The problem I'm having is that while almost every time I think about it I conclude that I'm not convinced enough that he's scum, my reasons for thinking so always end up being WIFOM. Problem is, I read somewhere(I think a guide, or maybe a wiki) that when WIFOM always end up the same way, it may not necessarily be pure speculation. After all, I should be able to find tons of compelling arguments in either direction. So basically, I've been reluctant to accept Djod as "confirmed" scum for that reason. However, while I think my Dandel case is solid(seriously, I'd especially like to hear what exactly you guys see him as, not just try and pick my argument apart, but explain to me what you think about him). In essence, if we assume Djod doesn't exist, why should we not lynch Dandel? If enough people answer that to my liking, I'll get behind a Djod lynch, but the way you are all screaming WE MUST LYNCH DJOD NAOOO!!! makes me really wary that something is off. | ||
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On October 30 2012 03:42 debears wrote: In my mind if Dandel didn't exist, we should lynch Djo. But that's my entire point, Dandel does exist, so that's why I'm torn.Alsn..... That argument has no ground. How about this. Assuming dandel doesnt exist, why should we not vote djo? Is your entire read on Dandel that he fits his meta and that your scum reads suspect him? | ||
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On October 30 2012 03:55 nackhtjogger wrote: In my head still. I'm not certain that they would be very useful right now. But basically if you had just replaced in today I would probably consider you town right now. Problem is, you've been around for quite long so I don't really know what to think right now.Scum #2 Where are your thoughts about Cheese that you are so eager to see if I share? My thoughts about cheese have to do with him and Dandel calling out Djod. Problem is that without more information I can't really follow through on it. However, I wanted to know if you truly suspected Cheese or not. You suspecting him leads me to lean townie on you simply because he's a weird target to pick if you wanted to try and save your own ass. | ||
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That being said, if I accept that it was just him either wording things too strongly, or otherwise giving me the wrong impression then yea, I'd say Djod is scummier. In fact, I'd say the further along this day has gone the more Djod has been doing scummy things. I particularly agree with the idea that he jumped on my case as soon as I posted it as he didn't really seem all that concerned about Dandel before it. I just wasn't yet convinced that Dandel wasn't scum. I guess I can probably post what I meant with regards to Cheese and Dandel vs Djod I mentioned earlier when I responded to Nackh. It was extremely weird to me how two people could draw such different conclusions about Djod. One of them was 95% sure Djod was scum, 5% SK(Cheese) while Dandel had pretty much the opposite opinion. It didn't make sense to me that if they had the same information, they would draw such different conclusions. For that reason I suspected that one of them was scum and one wasn't. With Dandel's claim actually looking quite believable, I'm beginning to question maybe I should have been more open about him and more suspicious of Cheese. So, yea, here goes: ##Vote: Djodref If Djod flips town, I swear I'm gonna break something. | ||
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On October 30 2012 07:03 Rad wrote: Hm, I see your point. But isn't the lynch 1 hour earlier now? Or did summer time end yesterday without me noticing? :DEBWOP: This was something that also really pissed me off about his end of night timing considering how long he was awake before day 1 lynch. | ||
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On October 30 2012 07:45 Djodref wrote: At this point I'm hoping that just wont happen. To be honest, if you truly are town I'd say you give us your best reads right now, because if you are, we'll need them.What are you gonna do when I flip green ? | ||
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On October 30 2012 08:00 Rad wrote: I think you're overstating just how scummy I find Cheese to be. I basically agree that he has played mostly safe, but also that I'm wondering why him and Dandel would come to such different conclusions unless they had different information. So I don't actually know if Dandel or Cheese is the scum out of those two. Problem is, I've realized that the fact that they have differing conclusions on that matter doesn't really help if we lynch Djod, because they both want him gone(so I can't distinguish one from the other).@Djo We have alsn and nackht thinking cheese is scum. I'm much more interested in a debears case, because you're the only one considering that right now, and if you flip town and we didn't get any good evidence from you on him, I'll be pissed. In fact, weighing the info gained from Dandel against Djod, I'd probably lynch Dandel, but I don't think we have the luxury of lynching for information at this point. I think we need to just hope to fuck that Djod is scum or that we can figure out wtf is going on if he flips town. | ||
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4v3v1, or 5v3 until day, and then it branches off depending on if Rad is SK or vigi. If Rad is SK, I'm not really sure what the best move is. A supposed Dandel scum role blocker would probably want to role block a potential SK, yet doing so would allow Rad to claim role block and we would lynch the fuck out of Dandel the next day. Not role blocking Rad would then mean that he could(if he wants to) kill a scum, but a scum night kill would mean we have a 100% confirmed SK(unless there's a different SK but then we are well and truly fucked). So I'm not sure what the best move would be at that point but if Dandel is town he definitely should be trying to role block scum, not Rad, because it's in a supposed SK Rad's best interest to prolong the game. Killing someone he suspects could be town would mean that the next day is 2 town + SK vs 3 scum, something which is impossible to win for either SK or town with plurality lynch(all three scum just vote Rad the minute the day starts and they win). Now, if Rad is town, we will end up in a 4v3 scenario tomorrow which is lylo. An incredibly hard position to be in, especially if any of either Nackh or Roco is town. If we need their votes it will be extremely difficult to win. Basically, the only conclusion I can come to is that if Djod flips town, we are almost completely fucked. :/ | ||
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Actually, that's a good point, Dandel, would you go for a cheese lynch? | ||
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Anyone else here right now that can argue with/against? | ||
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But basically, if you want Cheese lynched, and either Rad or debears is up for it, I'm in. Otherwise I'd say we stick with Djod and hope to fuck that he flips scum. | ||
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On October 30 2012 08:27 Rad wrote: I just mean that if Djod is town, pretty much anyone can be the remaining scum.I'm not following you. Why is a cheese town flip better than a djo town flip? I'm trying to read through cheese's filters atm and keep up with latest happenings, can you sum it up for me? Look, I'm still pretty damn sure that we have a good chance of catching scum with Djod, but for some reason I'm now trusting Dandel with choosing a different lynch. To be honest I have no idea why, but it feels like it "fits". I'll try and see if I can't find out why I feel this way, but I don't think I'll be able to before lynch anyway, so I guess this is moot. | ||
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But if Dandel isn't scum, I can get behind a different lynch if he wants it. I don't even know why I'm arguing this, cause I have pretty low hopes of Dandel wanting anyone other than Djod lynched, but meh. | ||
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On October 30 2012 08:32 Djodref wrote: Seriously, this made me chuckle. :D There's no way I'm voting Cheese unless Dandel and possibly debears gets behind it so Roco's vote isn't gonna change anything no matter what.@ Roco I need your magic ! Please appear and vote Cheese ! | ||
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On October 30 2012 08:38 nackhtjogger wrote: Because if he was scum and the second kill was by a vigilante, he would counter-claim INSTANTLY and even if the second kill was by SK, there's a good chance the SK would claim vigilante down the road in order to get Rad lynched as scum(and get him townie points). Either way claiming a killing role as scum is suicide.So why is Rad either what he claims to be OR SK? Why can't he be scum? | ||
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Rest assured that Rad is either SK or Vigi. | ||
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On October 30 2012 08:43 Dandel Ion wrote: He's saying you shouldn't trust me. I have no idea how he can think that at this point both me and Cheese are scum, but that's what he seems to believe.Please explain this. Who are you saying I shouldn't trust? | ||
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Problem is, I don't think we have enough time to make that call. I think the only way we can lynch Cheese, is if we actually believe Djod. Well, do we? I don't, but I sure as hell hope I'm right about not doing so. | ||
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Unless the scum team is me, Roco and Inig, how in the world can you conclude that I'm still scum? The only way I could actually vote Cheese after what happened that close to the lynch is if I for some reason did not believe that Inig and Roco were scum when they voted that way. The only reason for that would be if I as some kind of scumlord convinced them to do it in order to let myself not have to vote for Cheese. But wait, then Cheese would be town! I have no idea how you can still insist that me and Cheese are both scum, no matter how I slice it I don't understand how someone could arrive at that conclusion. If anything, I'd like you to explain why, exactly, it logically makes sense that I'm scum and that the actions leading up to lynch was me somehow saving my supposed scum buddy Cheese. @Everyone This turn of events is absolutely ridiculous, if Inig/Roco aren't scum, then we're fucked regardless if they continue playing the same way we've seen them do for the last couple of days. This because if they aren't, there's no fucking way we are going to get 4 consolidated votes on a scum. Which means I think that we are forced to lynch one of them and hope that there truly were scum intentions behind their actions. If we then don't hit red, well then the game is over. That being said, I'm still hoping for some amazing clue as to what the fuck just happened, but if Inig/Roco doesn't even want to fucking participate, then what can we do? We have to assume that they're scum. | ||
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The main issue is still that there's no explanation whatsoever. They were in the thread around the lynch, yet they didn't even bother to explain themselves. That to me either means that they are town and don't care at all about the game = we have lost, or they are scum and just can't find a good explanation = we have to lynch them. | ||
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Maybe an elaborate double bluff? I don't know but every reason I can think of ends up being quite a long shot. | ||
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This shit is depressing. | ||
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That being said, I'd prefer to lynch Roco over Inig if it comes to a choice between the two. Simply because if Roco is town, we've lost anyway due to him just not fucking talking. However at the very least Inig has been willing to do some posting, and if he still hasn't produced anything by the end of D4 lynching him too should be a no-brainer. | ||
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On October 30 2012 23:57 Rad wrote: Yea, I'll try. Rest assured that I'll do my damndest to push some kind of logical lynch well before the end of the day. I'm just pretty damn frustrated right now.@Alsn Find reasons to trust or not trust people. For inig, you can look at djo's statement that he's got an 80% town read on him. Djo had the chance to save himself on an inig bandwagon but he straight up declined. Djo flipped town, why did he trust inig so much? There's going to be more stuff like that that we need to consider. | ||
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On October 30 2012 23:57 Rad wrote: With regards to the bolded part, I agree that since Djod's motives were pure, we should definitely pay attention to his thoughts. We need to keep in mind however that he was town, so he actually doesn't know anything more than we do. The only advantage he had on us was the he knew he was town before the lynch, but so did scum. So I guess with that in mind we should be able to find something but I'm not sure how much we can trust Djod's reads at this point. If anything, we have the exact same information now that he did, except we aren't under massive pressure due to being on the lynching block.@Alsn Find reasons to trust or not trust people. For inig, you can look at djo's statement that he's got an 80% town read on him. Djo had the chance to save himself on an inig bandwagon but he straight up declined. Djo flipped town, why did he trust inig so much? There's going to be more stuff like that that we need to consider. | ||
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On October 31 2012 00:03 debears wrote: Exactly this, and it's a fucking terrible situation. We are basically forced to lynch them because of the possibility of 2) while at the same time having pretty damn bleak outlooks on the rest of the game if 1) is true.@Rad Part of the dilemma we have right now is Inig and Roco right now They are 1) Purposely playing the worst games as town I've ever seen (not playing to win) 2) Scum playing to win The annoying part is, if we get lucky and 2) is true, the third scum will just be sheeping onto their lynches anyway, so the game will end up with either 2 vs 1 in favour of town, or Rad winning as SK. So even if we get lucky, we still need to hope to god that Rad wasn't bullshitting us with his vigi claim. That being said, I'd much rather that Rad win than scum, so yea. | ||
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Even worse, it's entirely possible that one of them is 1) and the other is 2). | ||
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On October 31 2012 00:11 debears wrote: Yes, that's exactly what I meant.@Alsn Part of the problem with Djo's trust of Inig is the fact that he was on the chopping block......you look for trust from anyone to sway the lynch in your favor | ||
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On October 31 2012 00:18 Alsn wrote: For now I'm going to be working under the assumption that they are both scum and that what we need to find out who the third scum is based on the game so far because from this point on, unless we are pushing a mislynch by going for Inig or Roco, the third scum will be bussing the fuck out of them. EBWOP: Fixed | ||
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On October 31 2012 00:19 Rad wrote: The obvious answer seems to me that he truly thought Cheese was scum and that we were trying to manipulate him into mislynching Inig instead of him. Given within the short amount of time within which this occurred, I don't think he really had time to think it through. I know I didn't.@debears ok but he refused to jump on an inig bandwagon after inig had already come back to vote for cheese. Moving to the inig bandwagon would have saved him. WHY didn't he jump? He had stated before that he thought Inig was just a bad townie. He probably didn't have time to change his mind that quickly. | ||
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On October 31 2012 00:23 debears wrote: Rad was ready to do it too, the only reason he didn't is because Rad thought that we wouldn't be getting a third vote. Or at least that's the way I read it and I have no reason to doubt him given his vigi claim.@Rad I only counted 2 votes on Inig at the end: Alsn and Dandel His wouldn't have been enough right? | ||
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On October 31 2012 00:29 Rad wrote: That was my impression as well and that's pretty much what I meant when I said he probably thought Cheese really was scum(due to trusting Inig).I don't think he needed any more time to think about inig's innocence. Not saying djo is necessarily correct in his thoughts, but I think he was confident. | ||
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First of all, I find Cheese' explanation for why he thought Djod was scum and not SK highly suspect. Mostly because he made the clarification for why he thought so after Rad claimed vigi. Secondly, he kept Dandel open as a lynch target as soon as I made my case but he had given no indication whatsoever earlier in the thread that he really thought Dandel was scummy. The one time he actually gives his opinion on Dandel is a post giving Dandel advice that he shouldn't "act" confused. If anything, that's the very definition of scum behaviour, offering friendly advice to players they know to be town. Link here. Then after several posts of actually agreeing that Dandel looks scummy, he goes around and says here that - and I'm paraphrasing - "no wait, actually, I never thought Dandel was all that scummy, only his response to your case!" as well as saying my case sucked because the premise was bad. Yet the only thing my premise even suggested was that I thought Djod acting like a lone scum seemed weird and I looked at other possibilities because of it. Dandel tunnelling kush while in hindsight he probably only meant to do because kush is kush, at the time it was most certainly not a bad argument(and still isn't, but Dandel's other actions look much better for him at this point). Interestingly, the point that this happened at is after several posters had criticised me for WIFOMing about Djod(debears among others) so now Cheese must be feeling that he can't keep the option of lynching Dandel instead of Djod open any longer and tries to shut any non-Djod lynch down. I reckon he probably expected Djod to continue acting scummy but unless he conspired with both Roco and Inig I don't think he could have predicted the day to end like it did. The only thing I'm really questioning at this point is how exactly the pre-lynch chaos fits into all of this if both Roco and Inig are scum. Because then I don't see how Cheese could possibly be scum as unless it's an extremely ballsy bluff it just doesn't fit. I don't think scum were in any position to have to gamble on bluffing at all, getting Djod lynched seems like a pretty good result for scum to me. Basically, right now unless I find someone else that I consider more scummy, I need to decide whether or not I want to take the risk of lynching Inig or Roco(still leaning Roco in that case by the way) or to go with an actual case, because I just don't think a rock solid case can be made against either of them. I sincerely hope that they actually try and participate from this point because otherwise I still don't see how I have any other choice than to lynch one of them. | ||
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Admittedly, I need to consider how I feel about Dandel's "SK or scum" argument as well. But I need to take a break now, I'll be back in an hour or two. | ||
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On October 31 2012 04:37 nackhtjogger wrote: So your solution is to bury your head in the sand and make up fairy tales about 2 scum to make yourself feel better? That's rich. If you're town then your attitude disgusts me.If there are 3 scum and it's night. We have to trust the SK to kill some scum for us instead of killing one of us. And hope the scum kill the sk at one point. In this case we are up shits creek. This is a shit predicament to be in so we're fucked if it is the case. I don't even want to think about it that's how repugnant it is. | ||
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On October 30 2012 20:17 nackhtjogger wrote: FOS: Alsn 1)Why didn't you vote for Cheese and wish-washed indecisively the whole time, causing confusion, instead ? I thought you said if Dandel is town, and since he claimed with a legit-looking breadcrumb to back it up it's pretty likely, that would make Cheese scum due to the high discrepancy of opinions emanating from the same material? You didn't act according to the convictions you claimed to have at all! 2)You also said we are fucked if Djo is town. Why did you go along with the Inig derailment and then back to Djo? Why why why :lurk Also lurkers stop lurking and explain your behavior. There might be 3 scummers around, and even if I don't see why scumyous would switch from one townie to scumbuddy (or another town IF Cheesecake is town) when bussing wasn't necessary, it still bothers me. @debears, Dan, Rad, Alsn and whoever else is pissed about the lurkers.. let them explain themselves and then you explain to me why they would do what they did as scum (stop generalizing and instead focus on the motives they might have in this particular game and it's implications) 1) Why I didn't vote for Cheese? Because I wanted to know if Rad and Dandel would go along with it or not. If they had believed in it I would've voted Cheese in a heartbeat. He even does at one point briefly seems to consider it, but at that point it's 11 minutes until lynch and a few minutes later before I'm able to actually vote cheese, Inig appears out of fucking nowhere and votes Cheese. Discounting your theory that I'm scum and suppose that I'm town for a second and that up until this point I've been telling the truth. That is that I'm not entirely sure about Djod being scum but he's looking like our best option. Importantly however, I'm more sure of the fact that either Dandel or Cheese is scum but I don't want to flip a coin. Someone coming out of fucking nowhere and voting Cheese means I'm supposed to believe what, that Cheese is the scum? The only thing that I can do at this point is hope to fuck that Djod is scum and that the vote on Cheese is an attempt to save Djod by a scum Inig. Sure, given enough time maybe I could have concluded that Djod was unlikely to flip scum at this point, but we had 10 minutes, and there were three of us(you conveniently disappeared for those minutes too by the way, with about the worst excuse ever). Again, the only way I'm scum and this all fits is if I orchestrated both Roco and Inig coming in and voting Cheese like that, yet that would exonerate Cheese. Or are you seriously arguing that there are four scum? 2) And this situation is looking easily solvable to you I suppose? Yup, everything is crystal clear here, the lurkers are super easy to read I'm sure. Not to mention the fact that I had no clue at the time what Djod even would flip. Either your confirmation bias has reached heights that even Z-BosoN could only dream of(hint: if you don't know the game I'm talking about, that's pretty damn high) or you're trolling like there's no tomorrow. The fact that you somehow decided that I was scum after reading like half the thread and then refuse to look at anything I say in any other light is astounding to me. Finally, why I went along with the Inig derailment? What were we supposed to think at that point? That Inig - the guy half the thread has been suspicious of for the entire game - somehow had pure intentions in derailing the lynch and being extremely confusing? Especially considering the only people that I remotely trusted at that point thought the exact same thing as me, that Inig voting like that was scummy as hell? Why wouldn't I go along with it. Why is going back to Djo a bad move at that point? Two minutes before deadline in a situation where to anyone sane it looked like scum was trying to last second derail the lynch. Had you actually been reading the thread up until that point you would have known that the only reason I was even afraid that Djod was town was because I thought he looked too "alone" to be scum. How does two lurkers showing up out of nowhere not support that theory? | ||
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I also don't think you being lynched is anywhere near set in stone. I'm sorry to group you with Roco, but for pretty much all of the latter half of D2 you were nowhere to be seen. Also, you getting upset when you're playing a game where(assuming you truly are town) the main objective for 3 out of 13 participants to make everyone else believe you as little as humanly possible is a little naïve. Of course scum will be doing their absolute utmost to discredit townies and make their theories look bad, because indirectly that's their goal. To your last point, why do people insist that there is a serial killer? Or for that matter, that the mafia necessarily want to gamble on leaving him alive? We are arguing with Nackh about it because he is misleading people by talking about shit that has no bearing on what we must do, intentional or not. Suggesting that there are 2 scum is ridiculous. Saying that the game is over if there are 3 scum is equally ridiculous. Giving up is ridiculous. Do you really feel attacked? In my last game I was VT as well and I had to suffer being attacked by everyone at a point where there was a single scum and 9 town actually remaining, but everyone thought there were 2 scum. I was endlessly attacked yet that's what happens in this game. People are wrongly accused, people are misled. It's kind of the entire point. | ||
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On October 31 2012 07:07 nackhtjogger wrote: That wasn't even my idea. Dandel was the one who attacked me for putting him in a bad position, suspecting me of trying to set him up.Why even consider the possibility that Roco and Inig are scum, instead of town sheeping me and my awesome revolutionary case? We had a momentum going on. I thought that if you were town maybe you were going to join the movement. But as it stands I don't believe you would've voted for Cheese even if Dandel and Rad would've voted for him. Your sheeping was conditional and you indicated this subtlely when you made the false statement that Dandel was to blame for a mislynch if he voted for Cheese. You even fucking apologized for this. Quite frankly you should've been the one to vote Cheese not Dandel. That said.. what do you think about my case on Cheese? I only said that to tell him that I honestly didn't think about the possibility that that's how he would feel. I only thought that if he was town that he'd think "hey, that's a good idea!" and go along with it, thus confirming to me that he was town instead of Cheese. At this point I think I was probably too rushed to think things through and it wouldn't have actually meant that Dandel was town if he went along with it, but at the time things were pretty damn stressful. But if you had actually read the thread, you would've known that. But you don't seem to care in the slightest about how much sense your theories make. In fact, as opposed to Inig, you don't seem to care fuck all about anything other than annoying people. I'll read your damn case on Cheese, but at this point I'm pretty convinced that the only reason you are even making a case against him is because you want to clutter up the thread even more than your inane popcorn timing around lynch. | ||
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The first comment that while town don't particularly need to know the state of affairs, it could easily just be him coming back and seeing his top scum read(Djod) not under any pressure any longer and having to choose between who he most likely thinks is scum among two possible lynchees. Of course a townie who couldn't get his own scum read lynched would want to try and minimize the damage by picking the target he himself thought was most likely scum. Your last comment is just gibberish. You say yourself that no one in the thread should have a good read whether or not Djod is scum or town, yet somehow you criticise Cheese for calling out the fact that da0ud was 90% sure about Djod being town? Who are you even calling scummy here, da0ud or Cheese? Because it looks like you're criticising da0ud to me. There's more examples of how your arguments are basically just either pure conjecture based on god knows what, but in general you seem to be living in your own little world. Or you're just trolling. Either way it's not helping. | ||
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Debears is very probably town, if he isn't then I don't know what to say. Rad is definitely town, or at the very least you should treat him as such. If he's SK the game is over for town but if he's vigi it's definitely winnable. Dandel is probably town, but I still can't discount the possibility that he's scum role blocker. His claim doesn't rule it out(like Rad's does) but his actions during D2/N2 at least suggests to me that he's either town or a damned good actor when under pressure(the lynch chaos seemed genuinely town to me). Nackh I consider to be really scummy. His cases seem "fake" somehow, they don't suggest to me like he's really trying to really find scum. I keep getting the feeling that he doesn't actually care about winning. However, if I suppose that he's scum, it would mean that he just believes trolling the fuck out of the thread will make us feel scared about voting him(because we might think he's too big of a risk to lynch). Cheese... I just don't know, he's my top scum read among "the actives" based on his actions, but my problem is that I think Nackh is really scummy, so Cheese being accused by him means that either he's bussing him or Cheese is innocent. I can at least see a world where Cheese could be innocent. I find Nackh's general behaviour to be anti-town however. So suppose he really has played those 10 games of mafia he claims to have played. Then he probably knows that bussing is way more effective for gaining townie points if you're the cause of a scum lynch(first one to accuse) as opposed to waiting until there's a wagon already formed. Among these players and with how things stand right now, I'd suggest lynching Nackh. He's simply not playing very pro-town and that's the biggest scum tell I have right now. Also, unless that's also just him completely trolling, for some reason he seems set on the idea that both Roco and Inig are town with no chance of them being scum. I have no idea why he would think that unless he already knew that they were town. That leaves Roco and Inig. Sigh, I really wish we hadn't thought Roco was gonna get modkilled. Getting rid of him over Djod or even da0ud would've been a much better position. That being said, I'd hold off on lynching Inig for at the very least tomorrow. I find the possibility of him being town not entirely unlikely and in the case that he is, there's still hope for him. I think you have to assume that Roco is scum. Because even if he isn't I just don't see how you could get him to vote with you when he won't even talk. In conclusion, Lynch Roco and hope to god that he's scum, then probably Nackh, and then hopefully you have the last scum figured out and Rad doesn't actually turn out to be SK. If you don't want to hope that Roco is scum, or if in fact he actually shows up and contributes in a meaningful way, then I'd go with Nackh first. | ||
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We know that scum couldn't know for sure if Rad was vigi or SK. However, if they suspected that he was SK they must have counted on him having a vest making him immune to one kill. Interestingly however, Dandel being scum or not would likely affect their decision greatly. Since if Dandel was town, they must have suspected that Rad was SK and thus night immune(since 4 blues seems like quite a stretch). On the other hand, if Dandel is scum, scum could definitely conclude that the possibility of Rad being vigi is much more likely(with only 2 blues it seems like the game would be very stacked against town if there's also a serial killer). Additionally, there's the fact that claiming town roleblocker is actually really easy to do if you are scum roleblocker. By the time Dandel claimed, he would have known from his scum buddies that none of them were role blocked. Neither had anyone else claimed roleblock so he knew the possibility of a town roleblocker was very unlikely(since town would definitely claim if they got roleblocked). Him bread crumbing that he would roleblock kush is a null tell at best. So, in conclusion, why I think Dandel is scum:
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On October 31 2012 09:33 Dandel Ion wrote: I don't expect you to defend against it as like you said, the case is not really open for debate as it's just a statement of probability. I believe there's a very high chance of you being scum.So, you're gonna risk LYLO because of.... setup speculation? With added WIFOM? ...... Well, good job coming up with a "case" that's impossible to defend against, I guess. I literally have no idea what to say to that. If you(or someone else for that matter) can produce a case where someone else is even more scum I'm still going to read and consider it. I'm not going to go all Nackh and read everything you say painted in red. But right now this is the best I can do. What do you propose are our other options? Gambling on nackh, roco or Inig? Or do you think Cheese, debears or me is scum perhaps? What does everyone else think? It's possible that you're town and scum took a chance with hitting Rad. It's possible that there really are 4 blue roles. It's possible that the scum roleblocker is really someone else. I just find the odds of all those things aligning together to be very long odds. | ||
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I just concluded that they wouldn't actually try to kill Rad. Seeing the night post surprised me quite a lot. | ||
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On October 31 2012 10:14 debears wrote: I'm back.@Alsn How do you go from this? so quickly to this? and this This is very alarming. Within 25 minutes, you go from Dandel as town to having a thought out post with the opposite conclusion This shows that your sudden flip on Dandel was premeditated. That means you knew what was going to happen and were preparing for it. Some more thoughts coming up after this. My pre-day post was in the case that I died, my thoughts at the time were that if scum had really killed me for some reason, Dandel was probably town and they wanted to leave his ambiguous claim an open question for town. I had gotten so convinced from making that pre-day post that scum would not kill Rad that the fact that they did shocked me greatly. As to your point that I couldn't think that argument up from nothing in 25 minutes, you're absolutely right. I don't know how that makes me scummy though as if I had shared every theory I have, this thread would be cluttered as fuck. I had been thinking about the possibility of Rad dying and what it meant for my opinion of Dandel for several hours before hand. So yes, the post was somewhat premeditated, except for the fact that near the end I concluded that I'd save it for the next night if the game lasted that long. Reasons being that I didn't want to let scum know my line of thinking unless it actually happened(if it never happened it would be good for me that they didn't know I suspected that Dandel was close to confirmed town). So there, I see that you guys have managed to produce pretty much nothing during the 13 hours that I've been away. I'm anxiously awaiting something some time soon. Dandel, I can accept that it's your mothers birthday, but I really expect you to either do your absolute utmost tomorrow to find some lynchable scum or I can't see how I can't lynch you. Or at the very least, if you're really town, I hope someone can actually make an argument that makes sense to me why we should lynch someone else. | ||
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##Vote Dandel Ion | ||
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Wow, I had no idea. I thought that was just an innate thing that you couldn't do anything about. Is that actually the norm in mafia? From the OP I had thought that a serial killer chose his "power" on day 1 and then it was just there no matter what. Going to take another look at the OP. | ||
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If a serial killer is present he/she will be able to choose between investigation immunity and one shot bulletproof when the roles go out and before day 1 starts. If no choice is sent in then I will flip a coin and choose for the player. Does that mean that the SK immunity is something they need to activate and that they can only activate it once and then it's gone even if it doesn't save him? Because in that case, that blows a pretty big hole in my idea that it was unlikely that scum would target Rad. However, if that's indeed the case, Dandel claiming roleblock tonight makes him seem really suspicious. Although I have no idea how I should interpret Nackh figuring this out, either he has an idea about it from the scum QT and he's using it to frame Dandel, or he's genuinely experienced this type of rule before. I sure as hell don't expect newbies on this forum to know about that type of rule, so I'm unsure of what it all means. On one hand, if scum really did roleblock Rad and killed him, it would mean Dandel was lying about being roleblocked and trying to roleblock Inig. However, if Dandel is lying, then that means that there are either two scum roleblockers, or that scum didn't actually roleblock Rad. | ||
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[QUOTE]On October 31 2012 23:50 Alsn wrote: From the op: [quote] If a serial killer is present he/she will be able to choose between investigation immunity and one shot bulletproof when the roles go out and before day 1 starts. If no choice is sent in then I will flip a coin and choose for the player.[/quote] Does that mean that the SK immunity is something they need to activate and that they can only activate it once and then it's gone even if it doesn't save him? No, it means he got permanent 1 life + unless he's lynched, or roleblockshot[/QUOTE]That's what I thought, except I had no idea about the roleblock thing. But the wording in the OP does suggest some ambiguity as to how it really works, so I wouldn't be surprised if scum asked the hosts for clarification. | ||
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On October 31 2012 23:53 nackhtjogger wrote: That's what I thought, except I had no idea about the roleblock thing. But the wording in the OP does suggest some ambiguity as to how it really works, so I wouldn't be surprised if scum asked the hosts for clarification.No, it means he got permanent 1 life + unless he's lynched, or roleblockshot Fixed sorry. | ||
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On October 31 2012 23:59 nackhtjogger wrote: Hah, that's rich. It took me about 15 minutes of looking at one of the games from that wiki but there's no way you're that person. Or if you are, then you're not even behaving remotely in the same manner so either way that's a shitty claim. You're still just trolling.Ah what the hell. I don't see any reason to be modest so make that 30 games. here's my wiki http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=User:UberNinja | ||
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Considering that we had a cop, I'm assuming that there's at least either a Godfather, Framer, or both. I guess that still leaves the possibility of two scum roleblockers and that they just didn't want to risk exposing that many roleblocks during N1. It also makes sense that they would roleblock Dandel in that case to make sure that they really did get the kill on Rad(since a roleblock on either the roleblocker or the person doing the kill would result in a living SK if that was the case). The problem for me now is that two roleblockers can also mean that Dandel is just lying about roleblocking Inig + claiming roleblock and the second roleblocker was the one that blocked Rad, if they even blocked Rad at all. Bah, this fucking sucks, I'm back to feeling like Dandel would be a massive coin flip or lynching Roco. I'll try and see what I feel about Nackh after I sort out what I feel about all this but yea, there you have it. | ||
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On November 01 2012 00:18 nackhtjogger wrote: Uh, what? No, not at all. The game I looked at the person you linked was playing generally like a well behaved town would. Using arguments that made sense without being particularly trolly about it. I just opened 5 random games in the middle of that list and started reading though, but either way that tells me nothing about you because even if you are that person, it just means you're trolling like shit in this thread so the argument is moot. I'm not even gonna bother looking through more games from that thread because quite frankly, I don't want to look through thirty fucking games to find some obscure fucking van gogh reference.Lynching scum with UberNinja is like helping Van Gogh cut off his ear. You know it's going to end with a masterpiece...but you're not quite sure if he's got the right idea as far as getting to that point. - Maestro The scum lynch we had was a beautiful event of nature. The thrill of success was running through our veins before finally exploding out of us with an immense feeling of ecstasy. - Om of the Nom Sound familiar? | ||
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On October 31 2012 23:34 nackhtjogger wrote: Also your last point here is just flat out wrong unless you are accusing a confirmed vigi Rad of lying about his NK target. We know that scum in fact did not roleblock + shot kush N1. Because unless Rad is lying, they shot sylver. I still have no idea why, he was suspecting no one at the time and was actually looking likely to get lynched by town.I don't believe this. You probably were the one to suggest killing Rad "[*]The fact that scum probably wouldn't risk shooting an SK, something they must have suspected if Dandel was town." Scum kills Rad, then scum talks about how scum wouldn't kill Rad starting a setup discussion that i feel obligated to debate to show that I understand it and not loose credibility. I don't understand however why you said that scum wouldn't want to kill the SK. Also Rad could've had an extra bullet or two, role description doesn't specify how many. And on the roleblocking thing: it would make sense for scum to roleblock the kill, to conceal the presence of the roleblocker and kill an SK instantly (if that works like that here) block+shot kills SK right?. If scum blocked Dan tonight they didn't block+shot Rad. Now, either they took the risk and trusted the claim OR .. Dandel is scum roleblocker. They roleblock+shot kushmaster D1 .. hence everything makes sense. The only reason I can think of is what a few people have suggested that scum truly were attempting a blue snipe and succeeded. I'm not sure why they wouldn't kill someone they knew to be town who actually had influence in the game however. This because they must have known sylver was new and town, so suspecting him to be blue over bad townie seems weird. I'll have to think about why they didn't kill someone else that night some more actually. | ||
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On November 01 2012 00:33 nackhtjogger wrote: Oh get over yourself. Just because I know that you are insinuating that Dandel is scum doesn't mean I don't want you to actually clarify what the fuck you are saying.You don't have to try to impress me, I don't respect never giving up.. at all. I respect intelligence and it sickens me when people act dumber than they are. I made myself perfectly clear I just now pointed out that you're already drawing other wrong conclusions as to why Dandel "fits" as scum, so please elaborate and make a proper argument as to why he's scum instead of doing the same useless thing you've done with regards to me and Cheese, accusing us on basically no grounds and then not caring at all any longer other than offhand remarks like "Oh yeah .. I'm such a coward. Is that all you got, scum?" and "Please .. this is child's play. You noobs are only wasting my time. No but seriously, I'm awesome.". | ||
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Both are good enough reasons to lynch you because at this point, with how massively uncooperative you are, I'd rather lose the game on the off chance that lynching you is a mislynch, than let you win as scum. | ||
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##Vote: nackhtjogger | ||
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Now he's doing the exact same thing with me. He's been outspoken about me being scum, yet for some reason he's alright with painting Dandel as scum even though Dandel was my main lynch candidate. His own argument as for why Dandel is scum doesn't even make sense, as I pointed out here. I think he's deliberately trying to buddy up to people he knows to be town but are going for bad targets in order to get people to trust him. Linking that wiki page just confirms to me that he's trying to convince everyone that he's an amazing player and that we should trust his judgement. | ||
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On November 01 2012 02:37 nackhtjogger wrote: Yet Dandel is scum? He breadcrumbed that he roleblocked kush, a player scum did not expect to survive the night. Sure, if there are two scum roleblockers it's not impossible, yet I'm finding it harder and harder to believe you have even remotely pure intentions for acting the way you have so far.#1 I mixed up Rad's shot with scum's shot. Scum block-shot sylver not kush obviously. Not to mention the notion of two roleblockers is remote at best, the OP even gives a name in the scum roleblocker description(Vega) as opposed to VT and mafia thug where names are not mentioned, supposedly due to there being multiples of those roles but not the others. Yes, I understand that that's setup speculation, but I find it hard to believe regardless. | ||
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On November 01 2012 02:59 nackhtjogger wrote: If debears is SK town is almost guaranteed to lose anyway.I think debears might be SK, would explain a lot like why he's so keen on leading and causing a bit of chaos with his confidence mantra and lurker policy debate shenanigans, so scum doesn't take him out. I'm not voting because I haven't figured out the implications yet. Maybe we do want scum to take out the SK so we don't lynch the roleblocker idk, to be honest. It doesn't look very good either way. I find it interesting how you would come to the conclusion that because he hasn't yet been night killed, he might be SK? If anything, him not getting NK'd either suggests that he's scum or that scum truly thought sylver was blue. N2 getting rid of Rad was something scum definitely wanted since he was by far the most trusted non-scum player in the game. He was definitely the greatest threat to the scum win-con because of that, regardless whether he was SK or vigi. I just never considered the possibility that there'd actually be a guaranteed way to kill a serial killer through roleblock. | ||
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I'm definitely interested in seeing what everyone else thinks about your suspicions against Dandel as right now I'm in the unfortunate situation that if I add all the different possibilities with regards to Dandel together, he could flip either way. So looking at him in a purely probability based sense seems to have gotten me nowhere. I actually feel like your argument about SK fishing makes a lot of sense. However, I think some of the arguments you've made so far to support it are pretty shaky and based on either scummy or too quickly drawn conclusions(like the things I've pointed out across the last few pages), so all in all I'd say your entire case consists of Dandel's two claims definitely not exonerating him(since they could easily have been scum motivated) and that scum would be trying to fish out a potential SK. Am I right in that? | ||
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Even if all three of us are town, that would mean that there's at least one townie left in the game who isn't even trying to participate. Please at least try and participate. I'd say anyone not voting or at the very least typing out their cases well before lynch is making it extremely hard for town to win. | ||
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With that in mind, I thought about what reasons he could have for role claiming. If he's town, the story is pretty straight forward, he's been telling the truth and all we need to know is in his filter. If he's scum however, what could the possible motivations for him to cause a lynch on Djod be? I'm going to assume that a scum Dandel would want to avoid attention if possible so role claiming seems like a risky thing to do. However, having four votes could theoretically cause a scum Dandel to be forced to role claim in order to avoid being lynched himself. Now, the important thing here is obviously who were voting for Dandel. If one or more of the votes against him were scum votes, there was little to no risk that he would be lynched. So in any scenario where Dandel actually was scum and felt the need to role claim to save himself, the votes against him would likely to all have been town votes, or at most a single scum vote. Yes, I realise that would mean I'm arguing for my own towniness, but if it makes you feel better when reading this then just assume that I was the scum in that case. I believe this to be almost guaranteed to be true simply because if Dandel hadn't role claimed, the main culprits of the Djod lynch would likely have been debears, Cheese or Dandel. This means that if none out of debears/cheese are scum, that not only would a scum Dandel not have had to role claim(since Djod was likely to be lynched anyway if two town were voting for him) the blame in such a case would have been shared by two town and Dandel, a very good situation for scum I'd say. So in essence I'd say that Dandel should only be scum if Cheese and/or debears are his scum buddies, because if one or both of them are town, a scum Dandel would likely not have claimed. Seeing as Dandel actually seemed to want to vote for Cheese at one point he's either a good actor, or he's confident enough as scum to bus his scum buddy 15 minutes before lynch(that latter part seems extremely unlikely to me). I've tried to see if there are any flaws with this argument, but I guess I'll just ask outright. Considering you do seem to have a knack for actually analysing stuff with an open mind, at the very least I'd like to hear what you have to say about it nackh. Oh and everyone else too, I'm starting to feel like this is some weird reading of an epic dramatic dialogue at this point. | ||
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On November 01 2012 06:19 nackhtjogger wrote: I don't necessarily see why it's so interesting? Are you saying that Inig thinking Djod is SK supports your reasoning that Dandel is scum? If anything, if putting that sentence in context with your theory that scum are trying to figure out who the SK was, it would then incriminate Inig as thinking about SK? But then Inig would have been also bussing his scum buddy Dandel at that point if your theory is to hold true.Interesting post by Inig, check it out. It has this to say at one point: It makes the dandel scum djo SK theory much more powerful in any case, because they wouldnt know each others roles. The only way right now I see Djo getting of the hook is by claiming What do you think, Al? Or am I misunderstanding what that sentence means? | ||
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On November 01 2012 06:43 debears wrote: Shooting Rad certainly would do that as you so nicely pointed out. I just didn't think they would.In the first post, you said that scum wouldn't gamble on keeping the sk alive. Then, in the second you say that scum wouldn't shoot the sk at night. Then, you say scum would shoot you to keep the Dandel claim in doubt. Wouldn't shooting Rad do the same thing, as shown by your and Nackht's suspicions of Dandel's claim today? The first post you quote is definitely inconsistent however and I apologize. It was meant to make a potential town Inig actually want to participate(it felt to me like he was convinced the game was unwinnable due to what nackh had been saying) because if he was town and had completely given up, the game would definitely be over. | ||
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On November 01 2012 06:49 nackhtjogger wrote: Sorry, it might have ended up a bit convoluted. At first I thought the argument would be much shorter.Holy Shit! I don't understand what you're saying. Rereading... To summarize, scum Dandel would mean:
I'd argue that because of these points, the only way Dandel is scum is if the voters on Djod at the time he claimed were all or mostly scum. That would mean a scum team of Dandel, Cheese and debears, possibly subbing out one of the latter two for someone else. | ||
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I just realised I'm still voting for you nackh. Not sure how much that is helping the thread at the moment, especially since I'm not particularly sure as to who's scum right now. You seem to be the only one right now even caring in the slightest about the game other than myself. ##Unvote | ||
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On November 01 2012 07:09 nackhtjogger wrote: So if I understand you correctly, you're now thinking bullying Djod for SK information is a scum trait, which would incriminate Cheese, Dandel and Inig? That seems like quite a stretch to me. Why would all three scum be participating in the exact same discussion taking the exact same position?Well,yeah but I didn't consider who was possibly bussing who. I thought it was an interesting post depicting Inig bullying Djo into claiming and this had the following result: Scum bullied Djo with their interrogation about SK so at one point Djo said: So he goes from a light scumread on me to a very strong SK read. His reasons for me being SK are poor, and I think he was convinced like this because he has extra information. Anyway, he is convinced that I'm SK, which is false by the way. ..which probably convinced scum that he's not SK. He's talking about Dandel here btw. We can assume that a Djo lynch has become less valuable from this point onward. To your last point, I see the logic in bullying Djod into claiming vigi instead of simply saying "I'm not SK". I can also see how that would make him less of a priority since I definitely agree that scum would be pretty focused on finding a potential SK after seeing 2 NKs. I don't however see how that must mean that they in fact were bullying Djod for information. It's entirely possible that Djod starting to speculate about night kills made townies suspect him of having extra information. In fact, that's what I've been saying all along with regards to Dandel vs Cheese claiming such drastically different conclusions about Djod(scum or SK). | ||
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On November 01 2012 07:56 debears wrote: I thought I made myself pretty clear that I'd convinced myself they wouldn't shoot him because of one extra life since it would make today's lynch harder for them. At that point I figured they'd wait until they could just lynch him with a scum majority(if he was SK). I didn't actually consider the possibility that they thought he was such a bit threat that they'dwant to gamble on shooting him anyway hoping he was vigi or had picked cop immunity. And like I said, I didn't even know the possibility of roleblocking the immunity existed.I still don't understand why scum wouldn't shoot a guy who was either vig or SK. Rad's claimed was not doubted by any of us last time I checked, unless he would be SK, which an extra nk would point out to us. So, in other words, Rad was a threat to mafia as 1) A confirmed town or if not 2) A SK who's priority would be killing mafia I thought having a "no-kill" would be so risky for mafia that they just wouldn't dare and play it safe instead. | ||
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Right now I feel like my only real choice is to vote for someone who would give town a stronger position the next day. Given that I'm not sure enough on anyone else, the only reasonable argument I can make at this point is that in the case that Roco is town, his unwillingness to even post means that I can't count on him doing the right thing even if I do figure out who the scum really are. In the only other case(that he's scum) then yea, we bought ourselves another day. Unless someone has a damn good reason for why they want someone else lynched, I'll consider not voting Roco at this point to be a pretty damn anti-town move. ##Vote Roco69 | ||
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On November 01 2012 08:17 nackhtjogger wrote: I'd still like to know how you explain that no matter how you slice it, if I am to buy your argument about bullying then at the very least one of your targets you have pegged as scum must be town.I see it the other way around. Djo caught scum's attention specifically because he kept speculating about night kills, which could suggest he's probing for a different kind of information. I don't see why town would pick on it because it was speculation, right? He was too good at it? Doesn't make sense from my perspective. You say there was bullying of Djod for SK information, the people I can find any evidence of doing that were Cheese(who later did claim that he meant he thought Djod was scum, but until Rad claimed vigi that wasn't clear at all), Dandel and then later Inig when he voted Dandel. So three people were supposedly bullying Djod for a vigi claim by alluding to him being SK. Yet now you say that your FOS against me got juicier? How does that fit into your picture? Even worse, consider what has happened today so far. No one is even participating in the game except for you and me(and I suppose Dandel tomorrow if he meant what he said about being away for today only). Cheese and debears did have a minor chat yet what debears said wasn't even true. debears stated that he was going to make a big case on Cheese, yet the only thing he has done for the 20 hours following that statement is point out minor(to my eyes anyway) inconsistencies in what I've said so far. If you were town, I'd think you would come to the same conclusion that I have, which is that if no one else is even playing, I need to trust you and you need to trust me and we hope that the remaining town at least reads and votes with us. Sure, that's about the weakest argument for my innocence that I could possibly make, but it's still true. | ||
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Even if he later produces his "longass case", for the last 24 hours only three out of seven players has done anything whatsoever. | ||
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I'm assuming your line about my start being "alarming" is with regards to my aggressive stance on Dandel, but I don't understand how the rest of that line fits into that. Get which answers right away? I think my reasons for suspecting Dandel at the time should be pretty clear, I didn't think there were any good reasons for why my argument wouldn't mean there was a pretty high chance of Dandel actually being scum. | ||
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Inig, assuming you are not scum, at this point town being confused is about the perfect situation for scum, because it will undoubtedly lead to a situation where all the 4 remaining town are not voting for the same person. In a situation like that, as long as scum just consolidates on a townie, they win. There's one exception, and that's a situation where all the town votes are for scum and 3 of the town are on the same scum, unless the 3 scum have consolidated on a town before 3 townies are on one of the scum, they don't win. But I find the odds of that to be very unlikely. For that reason, I'm going to yet again stress the importance that town needs to vote someone that makes sense. So either we need an extremely good case on someone, something which while I have my suspicions, I cannot possibly support with rock solid evidence at this time. For that reason, I think the only option we have is to hope that Roco is scum and vote him out. Remember, other than the unlikely exception I mentioned above, town needs to all vote on the same person, or scum can vote any town they like and get him lynched. If Roco happens to be town, that means he needs to be voting for a scum, which I'd say is 50/50 at best right now. Combined with the fact that the odds of the remaining three town finding scum is probably far from 100%(looking like more like about 50/50 here as well), if Roco is town we have a considerably worse than 50% chance to lynch scum. For that reason, if we all consolidate on Roco. If he then actually is scum, tomorrow town will be in a position where we can at the very least expect everyone to participate in the discussion. The only question mark at this time is you Inig, can I expect that you will at least try to play? If not, I'm think either you are scum, or this game has been over for a very long time. So yea, Roco 2012! | ||
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People really need to start voting or at the very least argue with me(although I'm not wrong this time). It's unacceptable that you are all hiding under your kitchen tables hoping that the game ends. | ||
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The conundrum I'm facing is, how the hell am I to get any one of them lynched even if I did have a massively good case on either of them? My reasons for thinking debears is scum:
Cheese I'm not so certain about, but the main points are the following(also check out my older case against him in the spoiler):+ Show Spoiler + On October 31 2012 01:49 Alsn wrote: Ok, working yet again under the theory that Cheese and Dandel are of different alignments, I'm seriously starting consider if Cheese might be the third scum. First of all, I find Cheese' explanation for why he thought Djod was scum and not SK highly suspect. Mostly because he made the clarification for why he thought so after Rad claimed vigi. Secondly, he kept Dandel open as a lynch target as soon as I made my case but he had given no indication whatsoever earlier in the thread that he really thought Dandel was scummy. The one time he actually gives his opinion on Dandel is a post giving Dandel advice that he shouldn't "act" confused. If anything, that's the very definition of scum behaviour, offering friendly advice to players they know to be town. Link here. Then after several posts of actually agreeing that Dandel looks scummy, he goes around and says here that - and I'm paraphrasing - "no wait, actually, I never thought Dandel was all that scummy, only his response to your case!" as well as saying my case sucked because the premise was bad. Yet the only thing my premise even suggested was that I thought Djod acting like a lone scum seemed weird and I looked at other possibilities because of it. Dandel tunnelling kush while in hindsight he probably only meant to do because kush is kush, at the time it was most certainly not a bad argument(and still isn't, but Dandel's other actions look much better for him at this point). Interestingly, the point that this happened at is after several posters had criticised me for WIFOMing about Djod(debears among others) so now Cheese must be feeling that he can't keep the option of lynching Dandel instead of Djod open any longer and tries to shut any non-Djod lynch down. I reckon he probably expected Djod to continue acting scummy but unless he conspired with both Roco and Inig I don't think he could have predicted the day to end like it did. The only thing I'm really questioning at this point is how exactly the pre-lynch chaos fits into all of this if both Roco and Inig are scum. Because then I don't see how Cheese could possibly be scum as unless it's an extremely ballsy bluff it just doesn't fit. I don't think scum were in any position to have to gamble on bluffing at all, getting Djod lynched seems like a pretty good result for scum to me. Basically, right now unless I find someone else that I consider more scummy, I need to decide whether or not I want to take the risk of lynching Inig or Roco(still leaning Roco in that case by the way) or to go with an actual case, because I just don't think a rock solid case can be made against either of them. I sincerely hope that they actually try and participate from this point because otherwise I still don't see how I have any other choice than to lynch one of them.
I'd reaaally like it if Dandel showed up at some point soon, because I'd like to know what he thinks now that I'm not "unfair" with my case against him anymore. | ||
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Sure, I've talked a lot this game in spite of this, but that's mostly because I've had reason to talk to people. Last game I had no idea whatsoever as to who was scum, so I spent the majority of my time reading what people had said. This game I'm finding lots more reason to actually speak to people and ask questions. Lastly, you voted for Dandel, yes, in this post. Yet I can see no reason that you actually had any intention of ever sticking your vote on him. This is made even more clear by the fact that you wanted him to scum hunt yet the only thing he did was answer questions and repeat himself that he "still thinks Djod is scum". In fact, looking at the end Dandel's post here he definitely seems to fit nackh's profile of bullying. I still don't know what to make of all this, I'm still not sure why I even bother any more because no one actually seems to want to play. Consolidating 5 hours before lynch sounds like about the most scummy thing I've ever heard. With how active people are being in this game, I'm counting on at most 2-3 people posting around lynch time. Hell, for the five hours leading up to the Djod lynch, there were four of us, two of whom are dead. Like I said, I'm at a point where Roco is the only fucking choice I have. I'm just stating my feelings on what I think is really going on here(and that's about what they are at this point, feelings, because fuck if I know what's going on in this game). So yea, maybe nackh is right and I'm just fumbling around in the dark, or maybe nackh is your last scum buddy and has been stringing me along because NO ONE ELSE IS FUCKING TALKING TO ME. | ||
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On November 02 2012 00:54 debears wrote: I was asleep + away for twelve hours? My point was that if people wanted to comment on our conversation, there was ample time. Instead pretty much the only thing you guys said was that he's UberNinja and that you would read filters. Yes, lurking may be even more detrimental, but seeing as you guys actually did have time to post, I can at least call you out for seemingly not caring.@Alsn What in the hell do you expect? You live in Sweden. Nackht lives in Germany. There are two fucking mega lurkers (one's acting confused and the other won't talk. Dandel had some fucking thing to do. And Cheese had something to do with classes (right?). It's timezones + IRL My schedule is fucking rough, but I manage to read and post when I can. Why are you assuming that everyone has bunches of time to spend on this game to be active when you are? Look, I'm just as pissed that no one else is saying anything either, but what the fuck am I supposed to do at this point? All I can do is try the best I can and hope to fuck that people actually listen to me. And if you guys are both town and the amount of work you put in at this point amount to what I consider to be almost nothing, what hope do I have? All things considered I'm still in favour of lynching Roco the lurker, for obvious reasons, because I have to assume that he's the scummiest of all. I think I've been pretty clear about that. | ||
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On November 02 2012 00:58 debears wrote: Wow, thanks for stating the obvious. But at this point all the people who are active are not exactly shining examples of perfect townieness. So I have to consider the possibility that they are scum, yet at the same time the lurking at this point has reached heights that Everest can only dream of, so I need to consider them scum too. I've made myself pretty clear that I have a "top" scum, and that's Roco. How is that not helpful if I consider a lot of people scummy? I've chosen who I actually consider the likeliest candidate.EBWOP You find 5 people scummy. Unless there are 5 scum, that's not very helpful Yet the rest of you six geniuses have yet to even vote. That's massively helpful indeed. | ||
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On November 02 2012 01:04 debears wrote: It's not bullshit. Everyone in the god damn thread has stated reasons for why they can't play, so I should excuse them all? Cheese is in the middle of a hurricane, nackh says he just doesn't have the time to read this long of a thread(suggesting he also is busy with IRL), you are always away on practice or classes or what have you, Inig say's that he's massively overwhelmed and just can't participate, roco, well, there we have at least one person who doesn't have an excuse.No. That's bullshit. Just because I'm not here all active like you during the day cuz of classes and baseball doesn't mean I'm not putting in work. I've been looking through filters actually trying to figure this out when I can Oh yeah and did you forget last night was fucking Halloween? For all I know, cheese might live on the west coast and is one hundred percent bullshitting about the hurricane. What am I supposed to think when fucking everyone has an excuse? | ||
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However, I'd like you to explain why lynching Roco is a bad move at this point. Do you honestly believe town stands any kind of chance of winning with Roco still in the game? At this point? His combined word count in all of his posts are less than my introductory post. At this point I see no reason not to trust you, since you genuinely seems to be working with town's best interest at heart. The problem is that that's only because no one else seems to. Why should I not vote Roco? | ||
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On November 02 2012 02:58 nackhtjogger wrote: And there's exactly one thing that you could base an exonerating assumption on. The fact that his voting record so far has avoided lynching any townies. However, that also includes the fact that he did not vote D1. I guess I could speculate about him being allowed to continue in the game because the hosts are pitying us due to not wanting to modkill two townies D1.I don't understand what you have on roco. He's from a country I've never heard of before and upon seeing the amount of bullshit about having confidence and lurker lynch something (because as I said before I have reason to believe he doesn't know what the word policy even means) he says he assumes it's because scum is shitting all over the thread so he decides to counter that by not posting anything. To be honest from my perspective Roco has been the perfect partner in figuring this game out. There's absolutely nada that you could base an incriminating assumption upon. Now quickly change your vote to Dandel before the goddamn power goes out again. Well fuck it, you're right, I can't really say that he's scum. I guess gambling on the fact that he truly is reading the thread and is genuinely voting what he considers the scummiest people is about as good a gamble as anything at this point. I refuse to be held responsible for this clusterfuck if he does turn out to be scum however. ##Unvote ##Vote: Dandel Ion | ||
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On November 02 2012 03:06 debears wrote: Seriously, your opinions on scum strategies have been extremely lacking this game. Hardcore lurking an optimal scum strategy? How can you possibly conclude that? If only one person is lurking, he would seem extremely suspicious. If everyone is lurking, the lynches are decided by random chance. Most mafia games tend to be balanced on that the probabilities of winning through random chance are somewhat close to 50/50 for either alignment. So saying hardcore lurking is "optimal mafia" strategy is ludicrous.So you're saying roco, who is the essence of hardcore lurking (an optimal scum strategy btw) is the most town by purposely not contributing? | ||
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On November 02 2012 03:56 nackhtjogger wrote: As far as I know as long as the vote is in bold and includes "##vote", it counts. Dandel's votes during D2 all counted even though he kept writing "##Vote: Inig" or "##Vote Djo" and such.Debears would you be so kind as to spell out his complete name please? We don't want any formating fuckups do we? | ||
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Please vote in the following format: ##Vote: Qatol. Votes not done in the correct fashion may not be counted. Vote counts will be updated whenever intermittently. So if we want to be picky, that's a capital V, a colon after Vote, and the full name with I assume proper capitalization. The history of newbie mafias on this forum is pretty forgiving on vote formatting though, so it's not a major concern I'd say. | ||
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The only people I can actually trust had pure intentions at heart at this point are the dead townies, and most of them seemed convinced that Inig was just a bad townie rather than scum(Djod and also kush if I'm not misremembering). Sure, they don't actually know any better than I do if Inig is town or not, but at the very least they do not have scum motivations for their opinions. | ||
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Could a scenario where the scum who claims to be rolecop is mimicri-ing the real scum rolecop be plausible in your opinion. What do you think? I have no fucking clue as to what that even means. | ||
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On November 02 2012 07:35 nackhtjogger wrote: I hadn't considered that. But my answer was simply to your question why he can't be scum. Scum claiming vigi before anyone else has claimed it about the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard. Scum knows that they would get counter-claimed in a second by a Vigi, and probably by a SK too.There's no reason for him to be SK. Why the fuck would an SK who has been regarded as town by most people even consider claiming for that shot? So people could catch on that he is either Vig or SK? Jeez | ||
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I'm still with Dandel on this one to be honest, you're just trolling. | ||
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On November 02 2012 07:37 Dandel Ion wrote: Of course it does. If you're scum, your vote is scum motivated. If you're not, it's not. You not caring actually makes you look scummy if anything.nackht is a troll, you and debears are probably town. maybe. inig is townier than cheese, so i voted cheese. But who knows. Not like it matters who I vote, lol. | ||
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##Vote Inigmaticalism There we go, if you're town debears, fuck you. You may have as many IRL excuses as you'd like, but I don't care, it's fucking worthless to play like this. | ||
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On November 02 2012 09:14 debears wrote: Hahaha, yea, that would've been brilliant. :DHmmm. You wanna know what's funny. I almost claimed Dhalism as my VT name....Wow that could've been bad | ||
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On November 02 2012 09:15 nackhtjogger wrote: Cop gets "not suspicious" if he investigates. But cop died N1. Also, no idea why he's called Detective when OP says Cop? :|Ok, enjoyable game. See you next time | ||
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On October 28 2012 09:16 thrawn2112 wrote: From second Day post. :|sylverfyre, as Chun Li the Detective was found dead! | ||
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On November 02 2012 09:20 Djodref wrote: Actually, I thought it was ridiculously unlikely. Problem was that I didn't really think about the implications of it until way late D2. If Inig/Roco had just gotten on the cheese wagon much earlier I would have lynched him over you easily.Alsn Your biggest mistake was to not realize that 4 blues was almost impossible... | ||
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http://www.quicktopic.com/48/H/BmLBWP66ree/p-1.-1 | ||
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On November 02 2012 09:53 thrawn2112 wrote: Yea, and pigs are flying around hell freezing to death.the good news is that now there's a new group of hopefully active people to sign up for the next newbie | ||
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On November 02 2012 10:35 nackhtjogger wrote: You realise, I hope, that this is a Starcraft forum?PS: Mafiascum's interface is ridiculously better than this shit. Noobs posting like it's a chat and nobody knows what the fuck is going on, winding up frustrated and for what? So I can hear marv saying that he always delivers a climax. | ||
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On November 02 2012 10:54 debears wrote: Yea I think I gave up too easily whenever I focused on Dandel. I was too afraid that Roco/Inig actually were scum and were being used to discredit me by voting on whatever I considered scummy enough targets. :/Btw gg to everyone except fourface Alsn - you had me scared past d2 lol Hapa - agreed. Guess it's the inclination for the perfect that really messed up my decision making d2/d3 *That and not being experienced/good :D | ||
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I was pretty convinced that the only way town was going to win was if both of them were scum. And seeing as they weren't, that would mean I thought it was impossible for town to win. | ||
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(this was from before I made my case on Dandel) No wonder it took me as long as it did to find him suspicious. | ||
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