EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XXIX - Page 2
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Sweden995 Posts
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Sweden995 Posts
I read through your case against Djod and I definitely recall reading it before. I definitely agree that your latter points make a lot of sense, but I'm not yet convinced that they are necessarily scum motivated. For example his willingness to "let you take care of Rad" can definitely be interpreted as a genuine unwillingness to take a stance on the matter. However, it can also simply mean that he feels he would rather discuss his own case. It is definitely true that he had been poking a lot of people about Inig at that point and I don't see it as a given that he wasn't simply concerned with wanting people to answer his questions. For now, I think I'll stick to my argument that I think even if we lynch someone else and it's a mislynch, Djod has definitely been at least somewhat helpful to town. da0ud while a possible "bad townie" has been unhelpful in almost every single way. The da0ud argument can also be made for Roco but at this point if Roco isn't replaced or modkilled(due to last minute participation) he will have a lot of things to answer for in D2. | ||
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The risk is that he'll flip green which wouldn't necessarily be very helpful, but at this point I don't personally see a better option. | ||
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From my point of view it seems like it's going to be Inig or da0ud today. For me I'm finding both of them slightly scummy but I'm not nearly convinced enough to stake anything on that fact. As such I'm going to stick with my da0ud vote for the reasons I stated earlier in the thread. If nothing else me sticking to him will at least give you all a choice as to who will be lynched(since Inig seems to be the popular choice atm, although only very slightly). I'd urge all townies to pick one of the candidates and state your reasons for doing so well in time for the lynch just so that there is no possibility for scum to do any last minute vote switch funny business. In a hypothetical scenario of a 6-6 split or similar it's much too easy for a single scum to make up some last minute excuse about feeling uncertain in order to justify a vote switch and cause a mislynch. It's much better if any potential tie-breaker scenario plays out well in advance of the deadline so that there is less chance of confusion. I'll try and check in before my test tomorrow, but if I don't wake up early enough I probably won't post until some time in the evening(~7-8 hours before the end of N1). | ||
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With that out of the way, I managed to stay somewhat updated during the exam and saw the results of the lynch before I left this morning. Da0ud flipping blue makes me a sad panda but on the other hand I don't yet have a clear picture of what exactly happened after I went to sleep so I will need to gather my thoughts before I can comment in more detail. Expect more from me this evening, I'll be staying up until D2 starts so hopefully I'll be able to produce something of value before then. | ||
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I have difficulty accepting that kush preferring da0ud over Inig is somehow a scum tell. Truth be told the lynch targets we had available were all quite weak so he can hardly be blamed for preferring da0ud over someone else. However, two things do stand out to me. Like debears pointed out kush seems to be very selective in the way he argues meta. That in itself isn't necessarily a scum tell, meta reads have a tendency to be more "feel" than anything else. The thing I'm referring to with regards to his meta is his claim that he doesn't know debears meta. That's almost definitely a lie or at the very least some massive laziness, neither of which is very pro-town. The second point that I can agree can be seen as scummy about kush is that he presented his case against da0ud after I had called da0ud out for making very little sense. Scum using someone else's suspicions against another player is a very easy way to get a case to stick, especially in the situation we had where there was no real clear scum candidate for lynch. However, I would like to point out that I reacted to da0ud's Inig vote very quickly after he posted it. This means that it would be almost impossible for anyone, scum or no, to make an original case against da0ud. To me this means that we can't just jump on kush for using "my idea" to call out da0ud as scummy. I think we can all agree that da0ud was making very little sense at that point in the game and as such I think kush's actions towards da0ud is a null tell at best. I will look more closely into how kush acted towards other players however. If an argument can be made that preferring da0ud over Inig was actually scummy, then I'd be willing to see it as a scum tell, but with the information we have right now I just can't do that. I'm definitely suspicious about his attempts to discredit debears, so all in all I think kush is leaning towards slightly scummy. | ||
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On October 28 2012 03:08 kushm4sta wrote: You may have been dead, but you participated in the obs QT well after you were killed. I can fetch the link to the QT to prove it.How is it a lie that I don't know debears meta lol... I don't even remember which game I played with him in full. In other I was dead within hours basically lol. Like I said however, it could simply just be you being massively lazy and not wanting to remember, which is why I concluded that you're pretty much null to me so far or at the very least until we get more info. | ||
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The players that I don't really have much of an opinion on are Inig, cheese, sylver and dandel(and roco....). I need to look through their filters more closely now that I have more time and will definitely do that tonight. Debears behaviour so far(with a few exceptions, notably the outbursts) reads pretty town to me. I don't think I would be able to conclude anything else by scrutinising him any further than I've done so far. Rad also seems slightly town to me, although I haven't looked at him all that much lately. I'm pretty sure I'll have a clearer picture of all the players before daybreak and should be able to at least post something describing what that picture looks like. | ||
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On October 28 2012 03:38 kushm4sta wrote: Fine then. I'll drop that part of my slight suspicions against you. Barring more information I probably consider you slight town at this point then.I participated in the qt but I didn't follow the game close at,all. ,you can see from some of my posts that I have no idea what's going on. | ||
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On October 28 2012 04:36 kushm4sta wrote: I stated before the game even started that I had university entrance exams today. People even pointed it out.Just noticed something No he didn't, unless it was in your scum qt. | ||
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Also, I'd like to point out that there *is* the possibility of masons in this setup. So even if your premise had been correct(that the information debears referred to was in a QT) the argument could be made for that being a null tell. | ||
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I can definitely see now that Inig was at least somewhat lynch worthy leading up to the end of the day. I think his arguments are a bit weak but at the very least he is trying. I'm leaning either slightly scummy or inexperienced townie but I'm having a hard time deciding which. The way he handled his case against Dandel makes me lean slightly towards inexperienced townie. It just doesn't seem like a good scum strategy, or even a bad one. Sylver looks scummy to me, however like Inig he could just be playing a poor town game. He's basically playing the same way Djodref is(lots of banter, not much content). I'm not yet sure of what to make of the fact that he has gone after Djod hard(whom I as you should all well know by now I am suspicious of). I find it very unlikely that they are both scum and setting up a bus this early. Dandel is a null tell to me, possibly leaning somewhat scummy. He has been very outspoken but at the same time he hasn't really said all that much either. I'm inclined to agree slightly with Inig's case against him, yet I feel his alignment is a toss up right now. However, Roco and Nackh seriously need to start posting. With how not very certain I am about the few scum reads I have I'm inclined to believe that either I'm wrong about one/some of my town reads, or one of them might indeed be scum. I think that's about as much as I can accomplish tonight. I've had a pretty long day. If I survive the night I'll look more closely on the specific cases that people have made tomorrow(so far I've mostly noted who they've been suspicious about and how strongly, not so much the why's) as I just haven't had the time to go very much in depth so far. Strongest scum read is still Djod, slightly stronger than before the lynch, but I'm still not nearly certain. | ||
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I still find him my biggest scum read however. Cheese case is a pretty nice summary of why I think so, although I don't agree with necessarily everything(I'm more and more willing to let that first "slip" just be him chatting da0ud up) I have yet to see him be very concerned for town in any non-superficial way. That being said, I think we need to stand back and consider the possibilities at hand. We are 9 people alive out of 13, if we assume the second NK was a vigi shot, there's 6 town vs 3 scum, giving us at least one more lynch where we can gather information so lets make it count. If on the other hand the second NK was done by a likely SK(likely due to 2 blue's already having flipped) we are 5 vs 3 vs 1. Another mislynch would make town entirely dependant on SK and that's definitely a situation that is scary. SK of course also want's mafia dead but I can imagine that it'd be difficult to work with someone who has their own agenda. So basically, this lynch is important any way you slice it. | ||
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No matter what scum killed either kush or sylver and both of them suspected you Djod. You can be "pretty sure" however much you want but that still doesn't change the fact that you shouldn't be able to be pretty sure. Either you know, suggesting the charges against you by for example Dandel is legitimate, or you are sure of something for no apparent reason. We have no clue whatsoever as to what scum want us to think. Kush was the most experienced player here, it could just mean that they wanted him gone for that reason. Or he said something which made sense that they wanted to cover up, or it was the SK/Vigi like you suggest, yet we have no idea at this point. | ||
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Looking at the situation right now, the only one at risk of lynching seems to be Djodref. More importantly, he seems to be completely alone in his plight. I think he's scummy, but this fact alone leads me to believe that one of the following three options must be true:
Looking at these scenarios, and I'm convinced they're the only ones possible, I find the last one to be extremely unlikely. While myself and others have at times at least questioned whether or not Djod was all that super scummy, no one that I know has ever diverted a hypothetical Djod lynch unless it was done very subtly. In fact, the only argument that I feel can be made that he is scum and other scum has diverted attention away from him is the lynches against Inig and da0ud. Kush(and admittedly to a lesser extent myself) were responsible for the latter, while the lynch against Inig was Djod himself in tandem with debears(and possibly someone else, I don't remember, please correct me here if I'm wrong). Lastly, Djod actually switched his vote from Inig to da0ud and was the last one to do so IIRC. To me, scum "securing" a lynch on a townie makes no sense whatsoever. The only ones at risk of actually vote switching near a lynch are actual scum, so protecting themselves against a switch is meaningless. That to me leaves the first two options and in both of them Djod is not scum. Sure, he could be SK and his actions don't really dispute that but to be honest, I would rather have a possible SK(and I'm not convinced he is) left alone and actually try and lynch mafia. Mostly because an SK isn't that worrisome if we still have a pretty good town vs scum majority. For that reason, I looked at the possibilities left. Either scum is keeping really quiet and all of us accusing Djod are town, or scum are in fact trying to get Djod lynched. I find the latter more likely, although unfortunately I don't really have a good explanation for why I think that is, it's basically just a hunch, although not an insignificant one. With that in mind, I went through both Mr. Cheese' and Dandel's filters and lo and behold, upon closer inspection I can't really find any good reasons to think that they are town. Sure, Cheese hasn't done anything particularly scummy but looking at his behaviour as a whole he hasn't done anything particularly town either. Basically, Cheese's actions amount to suspecting Djod and... well, that's pretty much it. Apart from arguing semantics and policy, that's pretty much his entire contribution. On the other hand, Dandel is in the same boat, with added baggage in fact. His contributions also amount to pretty much only suspecting Djod but with the added bonus that he said several times that he would tunnel kush, seemingly for no apparent reason. In fact I think the SK/vig(whoever it may be) killing kush actually messed things up quite a bit as I'm now thinking Dandel's entire plan was to tunnel kush simply because he's not a very hard target to attack(for those of you who are new, kush has a... let's say "vivid", reputation). Especially since he got a townie lynched. Finally, almost every single post of Dandel so far in the game has been fluffy at best, scummy at worst. He kept bringing up policy voting well after most people had started talking about it, as if he wanted the discussion to continue. His so called "case" on Inig was pure OMGUS and finally, his unwillingness to actually switch from that OMGUS case even though he actually admitted himself that it wasn't a very good case. In fact, the two people that could have actually been switched to were either Djod(who he at the time had said he wasn't convinced was scummy) and da0ud(for reasons I now suspect he didn't want to be associated with vote flipping onto a townie). So, to sum up my case for why Dandel Ion is scum
I'd like to hear people's thoughts on this matter, since I'm feeling pretty good about my case at this point. Oh and, ##Vote: Dandel Ion | ||
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