The super paranoid players might point out that, at the time you voted, kush had changed his vote and had yet to use my 3 votes. ON would have been the leading vote-getter had you swapped or not.

You guys are an hour late!

austinmcc

United States6737 Posts

October 14 2012 03:18 GMT

#758

On October 14 2012 12:15 sandroba wrote:
Djoref is unlikely scum because he didn't unvote hopeless last round to keep his votes and have me lynched instead of ON this round. Well, he could technically still be scum, but that would be pretty terrible play. Don't bother with him till way later.

Hopeless was set to be lynched last round until RIGHT at the deadline.

There would have been no reason for scum to unvote Hopeless, as he was set to go through and ON would have been safe.

austinmcc

United States6737 Posts

October 14 2012 03:26 GMT

#763

The key key KEY matchup from D1 seems to be hopeless1der vs. ON. Can't point that out enough. ON was safe until right at deadline. Possible that scum expended a decent amount of votes in order to make that happen, but were happy to do so because they weren't worried about what happened in finals.

Then BOOM. Deadline votes, ON moves on, and scum have already burnt a lot of their influence in R3.

austinmcc

United States6737 Posts

October 14 2012 03:35 GMT

#767

Specifically:

18:07 - Djodref puts 6 on hopeless (H6, ON0)
4:27 - Hiro puts 2 on ON (H6, ON2)
4:36 - ET puts 2 on ON (H6, ON4)
4:49 - thrawn puts 1 on ON (H6, ON5)
7:09 - sandroba puts 2 on ON (H6, ON7)
7:10 - sandroba changes vote to 7 on ON (H6, ON12)
9:45 - kush puts 1 on hopeless (H7, ON12)
10:24 - OFFICIAL VOTE COUNT POSTED - SAYS (H7, ON 11)
10:33 - kush changes vote to 6 on hopeless (H12, ON12)
11:00 - ET changes vote to 6 on ON (H12, ON16)
11:00 - DEADLINE (H12, ON 15)

Actually the numbers are really weird...kush puts 6 votes on Hopeless when it doesn't change anything? ET puts 6 votes on ON when it doesn't change anything...

you guys vote weird.

The official vote count is different, which means that under the official votecount, kush first voted hopeless once. He then voted enough to put hopeless through and save ON (ONLY UNDER THE OFFICIAL VOTECOUNT, WHICH SEEMS TO BE WRONG?).

iirc he was also asking me in thread if I was gonna outvote him? I need to go find that. If so, shows that he was worried about expending votes and still having ON go through to the finals...(BUT THEN HE VOTED ON LATE TODAY)

austinmcc

United States6737 Posts

October 14 2012 03:36 GMT

#768

Maybe there's not a lot there, I dunno. Jeez, only 2 people period vote for Hopeless, and they both dropped 6 votes in doing so. I dunno if it really says anything or not, except that ET very likely town (EVEN THOUGH TECHNICALLY HIS LATER VOTES DIDN'T DO ANYTHING AND THE VOTE COUNT SEEMS TO BE WRONG QQQQQQQQQQ)

austinmcc

United States6737 Posts

October 14 2012 03:39 GMT

#771

On October 14 2012 12:38 kushm4sta wrote:
@austin my 6 votes gave 1der the majority

According to the official vote count, yeah.

But if you actually count the votes, unless I'm missing something, your votes actually just got him to tied, and ON would have continued because he hit that # first.

You and ET's votes both mattered based on the vote count that was given in blue.

austinmcc

United States6737 Posts

October 14 2012 03:44 GMT

#774

There we go, that's it then.

austinmcc

United States6737 Posts

October 14 2012 03:46 GMT

#776

So djodref on Hopeless, Kush providing the oomph to get Hopeless into the lead, then you sending ON through.

Yet when given votes at the end of today, Kush used them on ON. And was set to do so before prplhz came in. Eeeeeenteresting.

austinmcc

United States6737 Posts

October 14 2012 03:47 GMT

#778

On October 14 2012 12:46 JingleHell wrote:
Austin gets a large barrel of Acme Angry Host Glare delivered to his door for interrupting my viewing of the LoL finals to frantically make sure he was wrong. Unfortunately, it works about as well as Acme products ever do, which is to say, not at all.

Payback for Aperture 2

austinmcc

United States6737 Posts

October 14 2012 04:13 GMT

#785

It helps that we lynched mafia AND that LoL games end every 6 seconds because there aren't any buybacks.

austinmcc

United States6737 Posts

October 14 2012 17:24 GMT

#814

On October 15 2012 02:14 JingleHell wrote:
After an unspecified (to you) duration, the hot potato will blow up, insta-killing whoever has it at the time (via normal lynch mechanics).

I very much enjoy this sentence.

austinmcc

United States6737 Posts

October 14 2012 18:31 GMT

#820

On October 15 2012 02:52 Hopeless1der wrote:
gg sandroba.

So...we wait until Hiro comes in guns blazing?

Austin, am I missing something or does the potato just...blow up and we have no control/knowledge of when?

You're not missing anything. I just like that the exploding hot potato kills someone "via normal lynch mechanics."

Not usually what I have in mind when picturing a lynch. I don't know if the explosion transforms the potato into a rope, or if normal lynches are actually effected via secret potato explosion.

austinmcc

United States6737 Posts

October 14 2012 20:42 GMT

#835

On October 15 2012 05:27 kushm4sta wrote:
pass to prpl he said he will hold it. and it could definitely explode before 24 hours. I think they will do it tonight to fix the voting time.

^

96 hour D1, trying to cut N1 short. I wouldn't be so confidant in >24 hour D2.

austinmcc

United States6737 Posts

October 14 2012 21:16 GMT

#848

On October 15 2012 06:02 HiroPro wrote:
Do you think that the potato will blow up before 24 hours? No, the chance is almost none. After that though, it's a toss up. And I intend to make sure that you are the one with the potato at 24 hours.

So yes I do control the lynch.

This makes no sense.

I actually DO think that the potato will blow up before 24 hours. Moreover, the fact that you're talking about the "chance" that it blows up before 24, which implies there's a distribution of likelihoods when the potato will blow up, means that you don't have control.

You have the potato. The potato is control over a PORTION of the lynch, the target, but not control over the lynch itself, target + timing.

austinmcc

United States6737 Posts

October 14 2012 21:22 GMT

#854

Hiro, do you think that scum tried to save ON in R3 against Hopeless1der?

austinmcc

United States6737 Posts

October 14 2012 22:54 GMT

#874

On October 15 2012 07:17 HiroPro wrote:
Do you guys really think that there's a chance the potato will blow up soon? I'm going to feel awfully stupid if I lynch myself T_T

Sort of.

Trying to find voting connections between ON/djodref/da0ud/prplhz
+ Show Spoiler +

R1

prplhz votes 1x da0ud early. djodref beats da0ud by 1 vote.
djodref votes 1x prplhz, 1x hopeless1der, 1x ON. kush beats prplhz by 1 vote.

In each of those cases, they wasted votes on each other's opponents, not using enough to get their target to move on for 2 more votes.

However, 1 minute before deadline:

HiroPro voted 2x Kush, so prplhz was set to advance over kush until that point.
Hopeless1der unvoted 1x prplhz, 1x ON, 1x Djodref.

prplhz was therefore leading by 2 votes until the last moment. The double D lynch ended up the same as it would have been.

R2

da0ud votes 1x djodref
prplhz votes 1x Hopeless1der
djodref votes 1x Hopeless1der

ET vs. Djoref ends 4-5 with djoref passing on. Only da0ud spent votes to influence that matchup out of the group I'm watching.

R3

djodref votes x6 Hopeless1der
prplhz saves votes
da0ud saves votes

djodref is one of two hopeless1der voters.

If we think scum tried to push hopeless1der over ON in R3, djodref and kush are the only people who voted him. kush pushed ON (to an extent, towards the end of the day) in R4. So djodref looks more scummy out of the R3 hopeless1der voters imo.

djodref on D1 was set to push prplhz into R2 on R1. Last minute voting changed that.
prplhz voted da0ud, djodref's opponent, but not hard enough to push da0ud through.

There's nothing in here that really looks like x and y were trying to save eachother/help eachother out.

austinmcc

United States6737 Posts

October 15 2012 00:58 GMT

#894

We may want top scum suspects to go ahead and use their hides. That way there's no chance of using them later. I wouldn't be surprised to see a < 24 hour explosion, but WOULD be surprised at much less than that.

Would rather we burn hides on like...da0ud, djodref, prplhz, mementoss, 3 of em while hiro holds, then he passed, the other burns his hide. We can still pass to em later, but now we know there won't be any later hiding shenanigans. I'd rather not even have the OPTION for scum to hide later and then have to use D3 lynch on that person.

austinmcc

United States6737 Posts

October 15 2012 01:08 GMT

#896

Also, besides just not being scum in general, I'm probably not scum because I gave up control of my votes.

In hindsight, the final lynch was 1 town 1 scum. Scum most likely wouldn't want to give up control of their votes in a 1 vs 1 lynch. I held my votes on earlier days and was somewhat disinterested, only to ... not be interested in my buddy's possible lynch and instead gave away my control. There are other reasons, and I know that's slightly WIFOM-y because scum could do that then make this argument, but...I'm pretty town.

austinmcc

United States6737 Posts

October 15 2012 01:13 GMT

#898

On October 15 2012 10:11 HiroPro wrote:
I don't see any point in hiding. If we're doing it just for the hell of it, I'd rather not.

Everyone only gets 1 hide. Hiding now means no lucking into a hide at the right time later.

austinmcc

United States6737 Posts

October 15 2012 01:29 GMT

#906

On October 15 2012 10:26 HiroPro wrote:

Show nested quote +

I don't think whether we use the hide now really makes a difference one way or another. Past a certain point, no one really knows when the potato will blow up. you can't really guess like that using the hides.

i'm going out tonight and idk when i'll wake up tomorrow so i'll pass it to prplhz before i leave.

Everyone who hides now has ZERO chance to hide later and luck out.
Everyone who does not hide now has MORE THAN ZERO chance to hide later and luck out.

I would rather people have a zero chance to luck into avoiding lynch than a more-than-zero chance.