EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XXVIII - Page 32
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
| ||
|
DarthPunk
Australia10854 Posts
On October 02 2012 15:49 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: Is this guy famous or something? Which games has he been playing in? He has played in every game I have played in. That's all. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
I'm still not sold on Debears yet. Every time people push him as a lynch and everyone just nods along and agrees (this is based on a cursory ready through 30+ pages of filter late at night, so pardon me if I'm totally wrong about this), I get a wierd feeling in the pit of my stomach. Why? Because scum is already down one, there is almost zero chance they'd accede easily to a second consecutive bus. So if everyone is nodding along on Debears, and scum isn't going to roll over and bus again, then, WIFOM as this reasoning is, it doesn't seem reasonable that Debears should be scum. Alsn, however, feels scummy to me. Why?
All four points are not damning guilt in and of themselves. But combined, they point a pretty compelling picture of a scum Alsn. Right now he's my strongest read and as such ##Vote Alsn However, he's only a moderate scumread. Depending on what happens between now and when I check in the thread in about 16 or 17 hours, I might change my mind. | ||
|
thrawn2112
United States6918 Posts
If your vote is not properly formatted it will not be counted. Everyone is required to vote. debears (4) - djodref, Omniscient4983, Darthpunk, Z-Boson, Alsn (3) - Sonic Death Monkey, debears, Shady Sands, no lynch (0) Not Voting (4) - Lesrah, Alsn, RemedySC, Stutters695, With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch. Currently, nobody is set to be lynched! If you see that your vote is incorrect then pm me. You have about 12 hours 20 minutes left to vote! Deadline is at 20:00 GMT (+00:00) | ||
|
Z-BosoN
Brazil2590 Posts
The Battle for the Noose Alsn vs. debears ![[image loading]](http://www.newyorkemploymentlawattorneys.com/files/2011/11/Noose.jpg) The tables are set. The town remains asunder. The arguments on both sides are compelling. Each one of them wants the other dead, and only one will live to fight another day. Alsn Main posts against him. They are both mine, and I want people to read them again. The meta read I've added later is complementary to this main case as to why I think he's scummy. + Show Spoiler + On September 30 2012 17:13 Z-BosoN wrote: So I woke up a couple of hours earlier than I should have. Instead of going back to sleep, I decide to go read some filters. Sometimes I hate this game rofl. Anyways, I will agree with one thing DP said, alsn is scummy as shit. Look at his stance on kush throughout the thread. Brief timeline here: ACT I - Kush. If you are scummy like last game, I will lynch you no matter what. + Show Spoiler + On September 28 2012 16:54 Alsn wrote: Hey everyone, just woke up and was about to check when the game was supposed to start. Imagine my surprise when it's already started! Although looking closely the game started as I went to sleep, so I wouldn't have been able to participate until now either way. So in any case, I'm Alsn, I like logic. My previous mafia games so far amount to a single one, a game where I was NKd N1 as Vanilla Townie. My filter for that game can be found here. Other than that I have only ever played SC2 Mafia in any significant amounts(a game while using the same core rules, plays extremely different due to the time constraints and limits on discussion). If you are interested, I was also active in the /obs QT discussion of NMMXXVII which can be found here. So, with that out of the way, I read the first few posts and saw that this game continues the trend of lurker policy lynching. I agree that there needs to be pressure on scum to actually post, since without scum posts to analyse all the scumhunting in the world will almost certainly only turn up townies(due to lurkers generally being null reads). That said, I followed Tl Mafia LVII wherein there was a lot of discussion about lynching "trolly meta" players and I would like to take that one step further. Kush, while I realize that you have a posting style which by its nature is very confrontational and inflammatory, I feel that unless you actually provide some concrete analysis without using almost purely OMGUS argumentation that it is in town's best interest to just straight up lynch you right away. Simply put, unless your cases actually provide substance then I think you will just be a late game liability for town, mostly giving everyone a null read and potentially forcing people to make a town or scum read on you without having much of an idea what you are. So to sum up, kush, I can definitely forgive you for your "style" of posting but I will not under any circumstance forgive you for posting shitty content, just like I will not forgive anyone else for doing so either. Understand that I'm not singling you out as a target, I'm using your history as an example for what I consider scummy play. Now, on to actually read the thread and see if I can respond to something. ACT II - It is as we feared. Kush has defiled us all. FOS Kush + Show Spoiler + On September 28 2012 17:56 Alsn wrote: Wow, upon reading the thread I realise that kush has been following the exact pattern I just now specified to be the way not to play if he wanted to absolve himself in my eyes. In fact, I could go back to my initial posts to him in NMMXXV saying almost the exact same thing. As such, I think I have no choice but to cast a: FoS kushm4sta kush, in order for me to let up, I want you to stop it with your ridiculous knee-jerk play and actually point out why you think other people are scummy as opposed to why you yourself is so obviously town. While the following idiom is quite ironic in a forum game, actions speak louder than words and you defending yourself is just that, meaningless words. Start proving to everyone that you are concerned with finding scum instead of worrying about your silly streak. That being said, I think everyone else is jumping the gun here, kush is an extremely easy target to pick on, especially since he almost never seems to think before he posts. The scumslip that Darth and others pointed out can definitely be seen as damning. However, I am not inclined to agree with the following post from Darth: This last part seems to overly simplify the matter to me. The only reason? I myself can see a few reasons, but I would like kush to reply himself before I comment further as I don't want to give him an easy out. I can state for the record that unless kush shapes up considerably, I'm all in favour of lynching him. Simply because him playing like his normal self would be a liability for town later on due to his inclination to just defend himself over hunting scum. However, I definitely want to give him the benefit of the doubt and allow him to actually try and show that he has town's best interest in mind. So until then, while I definitely would like everyone to share their reads on kush so far, that is not enough for D1. We need to start exploring different possibilities because if we decide to lynch kush and he flips green, spending all of D1 talking about him will put us back at square one minus two townies. I'll make another post within an hour or two on another topic as I think I've made myself perfectly clear on where I stand on kush, but right now I need breakfast. ACT III - DarthPunk, you are going overboard on kush. I find you using ridiculous logic. How are you so sure of this and that? Hm.... I'll go with you being townie, ya know, for throwing yourself out there. + Show Spoiler + On September 28 2012 22:03 Alsn wrote: Astonishing how? I would like you to explain what's so amazingly pro-town about tunneling kush from the very beginning. I find the risks of that approach to be very high from a town perspective. There are two scenarios: A) He flips green, and unless he during the day completely changed his character we will have almost no way of distinguishing who among the people who pushed for his lynch were scum and who were town. B) He flips scum, at this point I just don't find that likely enough to risk A) happening. That fact alone is enough for me to see that post of debears as entirely reasonable, since both of you at the time were basically calling out kush for every single post he was making(for good reason, but not if that's the only thing you are doing). + Show Spoiler + On September 29 2012 00:24 Alsn wrote: Given the evidence so far no, I don't, and frankly I don't see why that's so hard to believe. Given his history, it should be easy to see for anyone that while he has different town and scum metas(as pointed out by Hapahauli in the obs QT of NMMXVII), his comments so far this game is entirely in line with the way he usually posts during D1. Basically just writing up whatever is on his mind. That to me doesn't really increase or decrease the chances of him flipping either way(but the setup of the game says all else being equal, 75% of the players are green, 25% are scum) Yes, you called him out for good reason because his arguments(like so many times before this game) make little to no sense. But right now the only thing I really agree actually points to him being scum is what you call his scum slip. I just do not agree with you of just how damning that statement is. The first thing that sprang to mind when I saw you quoting that was simply that townie was an odd word to use, why not use player? But a confirmed scum slip? Come on, it's not like he said something that is entirely outside the realm of possibility for a town player to say. "Townie" wouldn't be the word I'd use, but I just can't see it as that obvious a scum slip. I'll accept that you are not necessarily wrong for thinking so however. Given that there are no other developments then sure, I'll admit that there's at least a higher chance of kush being scum than a random lurker being scum. But I would really like it if we could at least try to get better odds than that. Best case scenario for me would be actually having everyone talk, present cases and opinions and if no one else presents themselves as scummy, then and only then will I roll the dice on kush. Remember, there are 3 scum, not only one. Who knows, if he's scum as you say, he might look even scummier by lynch time. The case being what it is with kush, I can see now that what you were doing wasn't tunneling per se. However, I think you are doing the very thing you are accusing me of doing where you say debears was trying to "shut down" the case against kush. Like I've said several times now, that's not at all how I interpreted it, only that we shouldn't limit ourselves to a single discussion topic which at the time I felt debears was trying to suggest. Something that I happen to agree with. This statement makes little sense to me. You say you were not tunneling, which I can now appreciate as probably true, but up until recently was not clear at all to me(and probably not to anyone else either). You had made quite a lot of posts in a row with kush as the only topic, as well as trying to convince others in the thread that he absolutely, 100%, no doubt whatsoever must be scum. I didn't find it unreasonable that someone would point that fact out to you. My "premise" was simply that if I find an argument reasonable, someone else trying to poke holes in that argument might not have the same motivations as myself, thus they are suspicious. The bolded line is ridiculous however, especially in context with the sentence before it. What makes you so sure that we would have "a lot of info to go off" in the case of everyone tunneling kush and us lynching him? My A) vs. B) scenario that you are referring to was dependent on the hypothetical scenario of everyone tunneling kush(which I already explained seemed to be where things were going at the time). I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt and say that you misunderstood what I was trying to say instead of deliberately using a red herring to try and discredit me. With that in mind, based on your willingness to put yourself out there, I have a slight town read on you. INTERLUDE --- kush goes ape shit. Ravages town with his treachery. Denies every chance he has to be saved, and wails incessantly. The ACT I prophecy was correct. However... ACT IV - It is as I feared. Everyone is voting for kush with little discussion. I dislike this lynch. I'm ok with lynching kush, but I wanna lynch my biggest scum read. You know, the one I don't have. Also, I think that scum wouldn't just go ahead and bus. You know, they would probably most likely trying to find another solution other than bussing. You know, like the thing I'm trying to do right now. + Show Spoiler + On September 29 2012 18:17 Alsn wrote: First, I'd like to start things with stating so far D1 has pretty much lived up to my exact nightmare scenario that I speculated about when arguing with DP yesterday. Everyone is voting kush with only very little discussion about any other topic(mainly, the debears-boson exchange). Looking at the vote count, the last official count says 7, and now corrosion added his vote for a total of 8. With myself that would be 9, the exact number of town in this game. From my point of view, unless kushm4sta, Djodref and Lesrah are the 3 scum, there are scum pushing this lynch. Given that, I'm really starting to dislike this lynch. I agree however that kush has been mostly concerned with defending himself against perceived injustice rather than actually trying to hunt scum, this still does not convince me that he is scum. Lynching scum with an overwhelming majority D1 just seems like way too improbably. Sure, if we had to fight tooth and nail to get 7 votes, I might buy it, but that's not the case. It seems to me there must be scum sheeping onto this lynch. Like I've stated before I can go along with the kush lynch, but I'd rather try and lynch my top scum read at this point and with the current developments, I see a kush lynch more as a last resort than my main scum read. Unfortunately, this argument is only available to people who have yet to vote and are town, as well as to scum since other than myself only scum are aware of my alignment. For everyone else, the "unless a, b and c are scum" argument will include me. My argument is at least enough to convince myself, so I'll be scouring the thread for the next couple of hours to see if my "gut scum reads" so far have any merit and if so push that/those case(s) instead. If it turns out that they are going nowhere, I will vote kush. But I still feel we have enough time to at least have a discussion on the topic of "just wtf is going on here?!". On September 29 2012 18:28 Alsn wrote: A quick addendum, I'm aware that scum pushing the lynch does not exonerate kush since they could be bussing him. However, given the assumption that kush is scum and there are active scum among the voters, I just find it more likely that they would try and find another solution than bussing, especially since it's D1. That's my main reason for not being convinced that kush is scum. ACT V - The resolve. I've had a vision. It is inevitable, kush must be lynched. I have realized the errors of my ways and it is imperative that kush is lynched. + Show Spoiler + On September 29 2012 21:15 Alsn wrote: I've been doing some soul searching and I'm starting to agree that it's not worth it to try and push any other cases right now. Mostly because my entire premise was that I was thinking it to be unlikely for kush to be scum. I realise that after trying to put into words why I think that is so, I have nothing other than the fact that I "feel" him to be town, which is a really stupid reason for absolving him. I thought I could back it up by saying he's been pressured to hard, there's no way he's responsible for not scum hunting. But in the end, I can't find a logical reason to forgive him if I exclude my own gut feeling from the equation. I think now that my best option is to hold on to whatever small reads I have(because while I have some suspicions, I don't think they are rock solid) until after the lynch is over. Because at least then, we will have more information. So for now, although my gut is screaming at me, I'll commit to voting for kush, mostly because most of what I said about BosoN has returned somewhat satisfactory answers, I really don't like the way a lot of people got away with not basically posting anything at all(I'm looking at you, Djodref, corrosion, Omniscient, RemedySC). I think that's probably what irks me the most, the thing I was most hoping would not happen, did happen. ##Vote: kushm4sta sup scum? anyone? + Show Spoiler + On October 01 2012 13:37 Z-BosoN wrote: This was one massively deluded post. I couldn't have been any clearer on my case against debears. My case presented two main arguments, and one supporting argument that includes a bunch of shit that can feasibly come from a scum. Argument 1) His stance on kush after a direct FOS. Argument 2) His 180 on Djoref. I have made these both very clear in my case. You are acting as if I didn't bring up his 180 on Djoref. Your only "original" argument that could arguably mean something includes him being defensive. That's actually the one thing he has going for him, he's defended himself and still managed to make cases, more cases than you. I started answering this post topic by topic but quickly figured out that it had so much uselessness, so much pointlessness, and so much gibberish that I simply couldn't continue answering straight up. I get emotional when I feel someone is talking too much crap, but that does not automatically make my entire case based on emotion. In this post you've managed to: a) give me a town read based on my "emotion" and "confirmation bias" while throwing my case to shit and then actually using one of it's main arguments. b) make a weaker case against debears, in what seems to be a weakass attempt to justify your vote c) not defend yourself against one certain post I made. Are you gonna say that it's confirmation biased too? This post reeks of mafia mentality. Why? You accuse me of making weak cases based on emotion and confirmation bias. You feel the need to say that this makes me townie. You are trying to discredit me, right after I've made an entire case against you. But you don't want to make it look like you are defending a high priority target like debears, so you go ahead and try to find some other things you can say against him so it can seem like you are genuinely after him. Right afterwards you try an AtE (appeal to emotion). Basically crying about your pro-town efforts, which, ultimately, surmount to zero contribution. Also, in this post, you try to divert attention from the huge wall you've just posted, saying we should target other people who have not posted more. That is not town mentality. It shows you value very little your actually case about debears, and that you are not willing to take a stance. corrosion I did not make a case against you. Getting defensive? @DarthPunk I'm getting fairly busy this week, but there is one more aspect from debears that I've noticed but haven't gone over yet. His whole relation with kush is also very, very shaky. I have to go sleep, but please go control+F kush on debears filter and see what you can come up with, to see if you reach the same observations as I. At the moment, refer to my above post, Alsn is coming off as insanely scummy. He's trying very hard, it must be. In my mind I've come up with a debears/Alsn scumteam, and from what I've gathered, the latest posts give sense to this. I don't think Djodref is scum, or at least he hasn't shown it yet. He'd make a terrible day 2 lynch, imo. I still have to think whos a better day2 lynch, whether it's debears or Alsn. Gonna go sleep, gnight all. I feel that my own two posts against him were the most significant. Debears has also added how he doesn't scumhunt. I'd like to go deeper in this providing a meta-read, from his game in XXV. He was shot n1, so all his cases were made in the space of a day. First post: + Show Spoiler + On August 24 2012 11:13 Alsn wrote: @Lvdr I tend to agree that Shady is not deviating much from his town meta, but as I said earlier I don't think we can trust meta that much in a game like this, especially since many of us are not qualified enough to draw conclusions from it. With such a small sample size we are bound to make mistakes if we focus on it too much. In fact, I think it's too early to tell from a few hours of one-liners and newbie advice even if there was some good analysis to be had from it. As for yourself, I would think that as an experienced player you would be able to offer better advice to the beginners than: Given that, I feel that the following comment deserves scrutiny: This because this to me feels more like you are trying to make the new players do the work for you and then claim credit later on through "I made them do the analysis!". Especially since comparing meta is not something easily done during a stressful day 1 as a new player(I tried while observing XXIV, it's really confusing). So Lvdr, while I have no good reason to suspect you on anything but what I right now perceive as laziness, that could change if you don't start leading by example instead of through fingerpointing. @kushm4sta, @WeeTee: The entire point of discussion is to make people explain their thoughts and reasoning. So instead of thinking you have nothing to add, try and figure out ways to question people's motivations. Why, for example, did players call you out in the way they did? Was it to deflect? Was it to make themselves seem overly active while they in fact were not? Was there another reason such as simply trying to help you start contributing? There is a good reason for the "lynch the lurker" policy. This because it is in the towns interest to catch scum with dubious motivations or casting blame on shaky grounds and that can only happen if we force them to speak up. Thus, the worst thing you can do right now is to stay quiet and offer yourselves up to scum casting the blame on you without themselves seeming suspicious. Instead, what we presumably want to encourage are lots of backs and forths in order to have a history on who everyone suspected and when, and for what reason(the filter button on the right side of people's posts are good for seeing this). As long as you carefully think about your arguments, no self-respecting townie should have any problem with starting discussion. Things to start discussions about can be: Who seems to be promoting the town agenda? Who are the people that look the most suspicious to you? And why! Is there someone who you feel are using bad or dodgy reasons as basis for their arguments? Looking at the thread there have been a few posts since I started writing this, will read and post more in a while. Notice how he's inquisitive. Is asking around for suspicions. Quickly, he sends out his FOS (ironically, against kush): + Show Spoiler + On August 24 2012 11:33 Alsn wrote: (Emphasis mine) I like that you are starting to contribute to the discussion. I don't, however, agree with your conclusion. If you look at the following post(long, so spoilered it): + Show Spoiler + On August 24 2012 09:34 thrawn2112 wrote: If it comes down to voting for a strong scumread and one of several lurkers, I'd rather go with the scumread. Being too focused on lurkers caused me to play poorly in my last game. If I make a strong case against a player I am definitely going to vote for them. Excluding that, lynching a lurker is the backup plan. Your experience of how mafia players lurk during newbie games is something I don't have so I don't share your commitment to a flat out "only lynch a lurker during D1" plan. I don't think that "worst outcome of lurking is to not get lynched" but I don't think that D1 is the time to do it. Of course there are always exceptions...such as the player who has 4 posts at the end of D1, he's sheeping the popular cases, and never offers any original reasoning for his votes. But yeah, hopefully lurking won't be an issue. I expect all this talk about lurker policy will help achieve that. And this disagreement isn't that big of an issue to me, because if I have a case worth lynching someone over then it should be a strong enough case to convince everyone else. That post also caught my eye and I suggested that he comment on the current discussion but so far there's been nothing. Kush it's not too big a deal this early on but the longer you wait the worse it's going to look. In this post thrawn argues with Lvdr about the lyrker lynch policy and makes clear and concise arguments and in fact comes to the conclusion that the policy post did it's job in that it put focus on starting discussion. Something which is good for town. You then immediately jump to the conclusion that he must be scum that wants to look like town. I feel this is overly aggressive on your part and while it's entirely possible that you are just feeling attacked right now and reacting a bit emotionally, please understand that things are not personal. If you are in fact a townie trying to cast blame on someone you suspect as scum, you should use clearly articulated points with a clear explanation of the basis of your argument. So until you prove to me otherwise, I feel I must suspect you for being overly defensive about your posting. FoS kushm4sta Again, quite agressive. From there, it gets better: + Show Spoiler + On August 24 2012 11:59 Alsn wrote: I've already warned you, this is not a game based on gut feeling and emotion. A statement such as "85% mafia" is something which needs a lot more evidence than a few one-liners this early into the game. You are providing a lot of controversy with very little thoughtful analysis. I ask that if you are truly town to take a good look at yourself and think. You most certainly do not have to blame someone else in order for yourself to look like less of a target. In fact, baseless accusation only lets scum attack you for being incoherent while in one fell swoop make themselves look like town-heroes. This with town having only to agree that you were playing very weirdly. I do believe that you are simply responding in a knee-jerk fashion to our attacks against you. Take a deep breath, take a look at what you have said, and think about if you really had good reason to say the things you did. If not, simply tell us. But if you truly suspect someone, you absolutely must provide better evidence than "waaah, he called me bad!", otherwise the rest of us can't make any sense of your suspicions. Here he takes a strong stance on how mafia is not a game of emotion. Whereas in this game, he has this to say: On September 29 2012 21:20 Alsn wrote: Get over yourself, I said I like logic, not that I don't have emotions or the capacity to be swayed by them like anyone else.  "It's not that I don't have emotions or the capacity to be swayed be them like anyone else". Very, very different. Onward. + Show Spoiler + On August 24 2012 15:00 Alsn wrote: I'd just like to state the fact that among the people that have been active so far, every single one has pointed out that kushm4sta's posting quality has not been particularly stellar or helpful from town's point of view, it has sparked a lot of conversation, I also feel that we have all conveyed our feelings that in order for his posting to help town, he needs to start putting a lot more thought into his arguments. That being said, while there has been some analysis of other posters, I would love it if we could stop focusing on kushm4sta for now. This in order to make sure people who hasn't contributed much yet are grilled about it, and that we make sure there is more than a single person being attacked. I noticed that Shady Sands also completely dodged the accusations by Spaghetticus after a post claiming he had to get some work done but has been very busy on TL for the last 2,5 hours. So, in conclusion, please stop the tunnelvisioning on kushm4sta for now and let's see if we can't find something else to talk about for a while too. After all, there's a lot of time left before lynch. Tries to be proactive, something he's not done yet here. + Show Spoiler + On August 25 2012 08:36 Alsn wrote: So, right now I get the feeling that the feud between Shady and Lvdr is what is most likely to yield fruitful results, seeing as kush has been told several times over about what the situation is and what he should be doing. With that in mind, I feel I must take Lvdr's side in this. I had had a long running suspicion against Lvdr since before I went to bed and was planning on making a case against him when I woke up, this was mostly because of his general lack of content in his posts. Upon closer inspection of his filter however, while he has a lot of very short posts, to me they all seem to lead in the proper direction, often mirroring my own thoughts on the matter. Not so with Shady, the last thing he wrote of substance before I went to bed was the following:+ Show Spoiler + On August 24 2012 15:43 Shady Sands wrote:Oh :S my bad then. I'm going to say we should just do one of two things: 1) We collectively decide he's town and ignore him as a major target for the remainder of D1, move the discussion onto other folks 2) We lynch him first and get him out of the way Let's figure this out fast, before we use up the rest of D1 just talking about him. At first, I thought this was a sound argument, but upon closer inspection I get the feeling that he just wanted to be able to later on get a wagon going against kush and I'll explain why. The first option of ignoring him completely just seems too extreme. Why is this the only other option? This sounds to me as if he is trying to force everyone to conclude that only the second option is worthwhile. Also, this statement is similar to other statements made by myself and others(Shady included) earlier in the thread that we should focus on other people instead of tunneling kush, but with a subtle difference. It suggests to ignore him completely! Then he tries to stress us into making a decision fast. The argument can be made for stressing the point being a town motivated idea to spur on conversation and getting out hopeful scumslips, but he completely abandons the idea later when it does not take hold. Later on he accuses Lvdr and puts a FoS on him. That was something that I was in full agreement with before I went to bed but as the thread continued on, I no longer agree. Lvdr having a town agenda makes sense to me from the posts he has made. Letting up on kush when we all agree that it's not leading anywhere could be seen as a scum move due to everyone already having come to the same conclusion, but on the other hand doubling down on kush makes very little sense to me. The issue of the roleclaim is something I want kush to defend himself against, but until such a thing happens and we get closer to having to come to a consensus(I'll be awake from now until lynch time), I don't think kush is someone we should be focusing too much on. He absolutely must start partaking in dicussion without knee-jerk responses though! Because of this, I'm changing my read on kushm4sta to a null read, while declaring a: FoS Shady Sands This is all with the caveat that I cannot deny Shady's last point about wanting input from Weetee, myself and Spaghetticus, and I'm not entirely happy with kush's, mkfuba's and Dandel Ion's contributions so far either. Brings forth another FoS. Is more analytical. Next two posts also go ahead and extend the view on how he is proactive, how he often takes the "Guys, we should do this" or "Guys, I want to do that" stance. + Show Spoiler + On August 25 2012 13:20 Alsn wrote: Ok, I would like to take a step back and see where we are right now and what our options are. As I see it, we have 2 people pushing for actual votes. thrawn and Shady. I'm inclined to believe either story but I do find both of you to be a bit premature in your conclusions. Maybe you are just waiting for more information and just want to get the voting started, which I suppose is a fair point. Both of the proposed lynchees are being pushed due to the fact that they are playing as "bad townies". Let's disregard for the moment if they are doing so under pretenses or if they were genuinely put off balance by attacks during the early part of the day. I will state for the record that given the choice of only kush or WeeTee, I would prefer to lynch WT. Simply because the JK claim is something we should be able to confirm later on in the game. Dandel Ion, mkfuba, Lvdr and Spaghetticus. What are your feelings on this subject? Should town be ok with just picking either WeeTee or kush to lynch, or is there something else of substance to go on? From the last few posts here, I'm feeling relatively sure about thrawn being town, mostly due to the material he has produced, but also for following through on WT with what I would say is great success for his case. It should be noted however from looking at his filter, that most of his posting has been on the policy discussion early on, as well as defending people when it was highly non-controversial to do so(shady and lvdr early on, and me when WT attacked me). Shady, I'm still not entirely satisfied with your reasons for going so hard on kush, but I can't entirely disagree with your reasoning. I would like it if Lvdr came back to defend himself more against the things pointed out against him by you and others. Because while I agree with the following quote: And you,Lvdr, could make yourself a lot clearer on a lot of topics, Shady's criticism of you has not been entirely without merit and while I think he jumped the gun, it would help the rest of us if you could elaborate. Especially your backtrack on mkfuba who I also feel needs to get his stuff together and write something of substance. + Show Spoiler + On August 26 2012 03:21 Alsn wrote: Ok, had to take a nap for a few hours in order to be able to stay awake at lynch time, but now I'm back. Boy did things happen in those few hours! First, I would generally like to agree with spag about kush/WT as I made clear in my earlier post that I only really wanted to lynch WT if there was no other option. That being said, if I am to exclude them both as lynch targets today the cases presented so far are against Shady Sands, Lvdr and Dandel Ion. Seeing as I have already placed suspicion of my own against Shady, I absolutely understand where Spag is coming from. However, right now I'm more inclined to believe that he is overzealous, especially considering the fact that if we (mis)lynch someone else, he is one of the players that we have the most material on for analysis as outlined by Lvdr. I would like to return to the discussion we had early about lurker lynching. From what we have gathered so far, the "lurkiest"(descending from most lurky) seem to be: Dandel Ion, mkfuba, WT, kush and arguably Lvdr and Spag. I feel that Lvdr and Spag has at least provided enough thoughts of their own that they can be considered non-lurky, and mkfuba to some degree has done this as well. You all know my opinion of WT/kush resembles that of Spag. This leaves Dandel Ion as a lurky player that we don't know very much about. For this reason, I'm inclined to agree with Lvdr that Dandel Ion is a lynch that town should be able to get behind. I realize that mkfuba accusing Lvdr has merit, and I will address his concerns, but first. ##Vote Dandel Ion @mkfuba: I entirely agree with your concerns regarding Lvdr, but I find his arguments for lynching Dandel Ion compelling. I also think that a (supposed) scum Lvdr has gotten away with posting way too little motivations for his reasoning. I called him out on more than one occasion for exactly that reason. I do believe that asking him to shape up during N1/D2 would reveal his intentions however. Also, while your case against Lvdr has some merit, I feel that your own motivations could easily be seen as scummy, for these resons I cannot get behind your case just yet. @Spag: I agree with you that if you are wearing scum-tinted glasses, looking at Shady's behavior can easily be seen as scum, I need look no further than my own FoS to see that and your own case surely doesn't help me lose that suspicion. Like I said earlier in this post, I do believe we need to give him the benefit of the doubt as well however. @everyone I urge you all to listen to Spag's argument regarding WT/kush, please instead get behind one of the other cases and tell us your reasons for doing so. I would like to repeat my earlier sentiment that if the only choice we have is between kushm4sta and WeeTee, my vote will go on WeeTee. I would however like to see us come to some kind of consensus at least an hour before lynch time. 2:40 to go. Why he's a better lynch target Note the INSANE contrast he's shown this game. He's come off as a weak, insecure, non-scumhunting player. In the other game, as above, where he was town, he was an inquisitive, proactive, and unemotional townie, and even went and got shot because of it. | ||
|
Z-BosoN
Brazil2590 Posts
debears Main cases against him. Same thing. read. My own, which contain the two main things against him, plus a bunch of other things. + Show Spoiler + On September 29 2012 05:29 Z-BosoN wrote: All right, I went through debears filter now, and I'm confident he is scum. Let's go through this more carefully now. His first post: First of all, his "I want town to win!!" post telling town to use their coaches. He then FoS's Kush, due to the fact that he's playing a similar game as the one he was scum. He says that DP + kush flame war is bad for the town, but doesn't attack Darthpunk, probably because he finds kush to be more scummy looking. Now, from a townie perspective, what does debear want? Information in order to lynch kush, as he pointed a FOS mostly based on a meta read. But suddenly, towards darthpunk: He is defensive towards kush. That's not how townies think. While I agree that DP is a bit overboard on kush, I don't agree that he failed to give arguments as to why he thinks that is so. A townie with a FOS on someone will want to deal with the arguments first. He doesn't do that, and suddenly becomes defensive on Kush. He says, later: He is more bothered by DPs certainty than by his actual arguments. Inconsistency #1. He then comes up with two cases. One against me, and one against Djoref: Notice the similarity between the two. He attacks us for asking questions (later on denies that they provide any discussion whatsoever), and falls into the same "semi-active lurker" category he's sniffing about. I will ignore the quality of his arguments, which I personally think are horrible, and will look more towards their similarity. From his case against me: From his case against Djoref: See the similarity, especially the bolded part? It seems that he has this "semi-active scum" cake recipe that he is using to sniff out scum. He also calls us out on our posting quality, in my case saying it is bad. I won't address his next post towards me because I've already done so, and because it doesn't increase his scumminess , as "bad cases =/= scum" (although it pisses me off). Anyways, now to the main stuff. He has a case against me and Djoref, for pretty much the same reasoning. Yet, check out what his next post on Djoref is: Wtf??? What ?? Where is his case against Djoref?? He goes from a scummy-looking sheep with one liners to a "townie who should pm marv for help"? Could he have forgotten that Djoref was one of his main suspicions? Inconsistency #2 Note that I no longer think that his defense of SDM is scummy. I've gone over that a few times and I admit that it can also come from a townie perspective. To summarize, here are the main inconsistencies in his play that scream to me SCUM: 1) He had a FOS on kush, then hurried on to defend him, in the manner I've shown above. I cannot fathom for the life of me having a FOS on someone and suddenly feel like I have to address an exaggeration on that person before I actually address the case. 2) He completely absolves Djoref for absolutely no reason. Townies do not throw around suspicions only to insta-drop them. 3) The other supporting arguments I've shown above. debears is SCUM! ##vote debears This case led to some massive follow-up between me and debears. Please read this as well, I'm not gonna quote it here because that would occupy too much unnecessary time. It starts somewhere around here. DP's follow-ups: + Show Spoiler + On October 02 2012 13:54 DarthPunk wrote: Starts the Game with a FoS on Kush. Then after I push kush for reasons similar to the cause of his won FoS he imply's suspicion on me. This is AFTER kush's scumslip when it is obviouskush is scum. At this point I was incredulous so I ask debears to comment on the case instead of saying 'I am coming off strong' He post this. Honestly. A brazen scumslip from the person you FoS in your first post and all he says is there is not much to say about it and it gives the 'impression of extra information' This was the moment I first became suspicious of debears. He has, in the space of a few posts, gone from a confident FoS on kush to unsure and soft defending him. Soft defending Kush. At this point Kush had slipped, had conformed to the scum meta that Debears KNOWS 100% from last game and Debears had FoS'd Kush in his first post for conforming to. Yet, the harder I push kush, the more Debears soft defends him. He then tries to shift attention from kush by posting 2 cases on other players. Read the bold. If that is not the most contradictory soft defense I have ever seen. I don;t know what is. Next up we have his 'slip' This is just funny. Just like kush calling me the most active townie and then calling me his top scum read, posting a case on someone then directing them to the town coach is incredibly disingenuous. Probably not enough to lynch him on it's own but I feel it is important because: a.) It is a slip that is unrelated to the Kush/darthpunk arguments. b.) He is scummy independent of this. Moving on. Here are a series of strange posts by Debears on Kush. Whom he FoS'd day one and who had slipped Then after kush has his melt down, His attitude changes dramatically. From the above to full bus mode. in the space of a post. I laughed at the bold. He called the slip 'the impression of extra information' but now when he starts to Bus Kush it is a scumslip. His next post. Condemed with no alternative. Almost like he was looking for an out and couldn't find one and thus bussed. This next post is scummy as shit. He has 3 scum reads but won't reveal them. Aside from his OMGUS of Z - Boson. OK. this is getting Long. So this can end most of the association stuff and behaviour around Kush. The next part looks at his reluctance to be scum by association before kush flips red. And before someone says 'oh it was obvious kush was red' Yeah it really was. Except Debears' behaviour does not line up with that at all + Show Spoiler + On October 02 2012 14:15 DarthPunk wrote: Part II: Scum by association This looks at how debears is desperate to dispel an association with kush immediately, before he even flips. Wants to defend himself immediately. Kush Has not flipped. And in his next post states that Kush could still be town. Why would a townie that clearly wasn't positive of the outcome of the flip be so eager to dispel any association cases. Unless he is scum knows and knows how kush will flip and is I am not quoting the entire post in this next part because it is massive and has formatting errors. Go back and read it though. He is desperate to defend himself from the association with kush. Despite kush not flipping, and despite Debears stating in that very post that kush could flip town. And that I would have wasted a day lynching him. The rest is OMGUS against Z- boson. Back to soft defending kush and discredditing myself etc. Despite calling kush scum earlier. But once again if he is that uncertain why does he try so hard to discredit any association between his behaviour around kush? Because he is aware of the situation. He knows kush will flip red and he knows he is in the shit. Let me tell you right now. Scum were 100% not expecting to get caught day one. Therefore they are very likely to have been caught out during this time. Debears reeks of scumminess. His turn around from soft defense to over eager attack in his vote post looks like a bus to me. The fact that he naturally soft defends kush again whilst defending himself is worth considering as is his 'slip' on djodref. Also note the difference in his play post kush flip. He starts tunnelling Alsn super hard. This is after stating several times the previous day how bad it was that I tunnelled Kush. ##Unvote ##Vote: Debears These have some things I agree and disagree with. There are some things I'd like to add. First off, debears has a very discrediting tone this game. He's mentioned "Your argument is bad", "You have confirmation bias", "You OMGUS-ed", "You are retarded", etc. etc. A bunch of times. He does not do this as scum in XVII, or does it much less. However, this meta holds little weight because in this game he's being tunneled into oblivion, unlike the other game. So how do we proceed? That will depend on who thinks what here. My personal opinion is that he's taking that "discrediting" road one too many times, which is a scummy trait. For example: Insisting that my case was OMGUS. Even my initial FOS regarding the whole SDM thing was not OMGUS, as I had justified it. Even so, he continues, throughout the game, to do the same thing. One additional thing to note is especially his latest discrediting quote, saying how the whole "mod-warning" thing I had was retarded. If I were town in his situation I'd agree that it came off as a bit suspicious and used the fact that they both had just been scum and that could have perfectly explained kush's "scum team 4 lyfe" remark. These "behavioral" issues are difficult to do a decent analysis of why that would be scummy instead of townie, so make your own conclusions. Think what you would have done as townie, and vote accordingly. In retrospect, he has defended himself in day 2 much better than he did in day one. However, the big difference is, in day 2 I'd given him the Alsn case to fall back on. Up until then, he was trying to peg me as scum. Once my case had been made, he complimented on it, and acknowledged it in this very interesting post: + Show Spoiler + On October 01 2012 05:06 debears wrote: So now it's time for my case on Alsn. Z-Bo has posted a good case. Now, I want to add onto a key element that I feel Z-bo missed: Alsn's scumhunting (or lack thereof). Alsn's first post before the game. Everyone, if you do not know the depth of Alsn's focus and intelligence (or at least what it seems like to me) and stubborness, look at his posts from pregame and the obs qt from last game. If he was town, I would be sure that he would put his skills to work and actually attempt to be nked. Alright, on to the posts since the start of the game. + Show Spoiler + On September 28 2012 17:56 Alsn wrote: Wow, upon reading the thread I realise that kush has been following the exact pattern I just now specified to be the way not to play if he wanted to absolve himself in my eyes. In fact, I could go back to my initial posts to him in NMMXXV saying almost the exact same thing. As such, I think I have no choice but to cast a: FoS kushm4sta kush, in order for me to let up, I want you to stop it with your ridiculous knee-jerk play and actually point out why you think other people are scummy as opposed to why you yourself is so obviously town. While the following idiom is quite ironic in a forum game, actions speak louder than words and you defending yourself is just that, meaningless words. Start proving to everyone that you are concerned with finding scum instead of worrying about your silly streak. That being said, I think everyone else is jumping the gun here, kush is an extremely easy target to pick on, especially since he almost never seems to think before he posts. The scumslip that Darth and others pointed out can definitely be seen as damning. However, I am not inclined to agree with the following post from Darth: This last part seems to overly simplify the matter to me. The only reason? I myself can see a few reasons, but I would like kush to reply himself before I comment further as I don't want to give him an easy out. I can state for the record that unless kush shapes up considerably, I'm all in favour of lynching him. Simply because him playing like his normal self would be a liability for town later on due to his inclination to just defend himself over hunting scum. However, I definitely want to give him the benefit of the doubt and allow him to actually try and show that he has town's best interest in mind. So until then, while I definitely would like everyone to share their reads on kush so far, that is not enough for D1. We need to start exploring different possibilities because if we decide to lynch kush and he flips green, spending all of D1 talking about him will put us back at square one minus two townies. I'll make another post within an hour or two on another topic as I think I've made myself perfectly clear on where I stand on kush, but right now I need breakfast. His point is fair and I agreed upon it. Everyone focusing on one person day 1 is usually not good. However, his later actions did not really follow this statement. His cases against Z-Bo and DP were the only scumhunting during d1. His initial problem with Z-Bo was a point already addressed by me in terms of the post at SDM. This post in itself isn't a big deal. However, he continues to keep the argument the same and becomes stuck on the idea. + Show Spoiler + On September 28 2012 21:31 Alsn wrote: Uh, what? For what? I admit I haven't looked all that closely on debears posting since I mostly looked at his filter to try and figure out what Z-BosoN was referring to, but as far as I can see he has done three things so far, he has pointed out that he doesn't agree with your tunneling of kush. I find that a reasonable thing to say, although not overwhelmingly useful other than as a reminder to you that there are other players in this game(which you have obviously noted by now since you are questioning me!)  His other two arguments of note are against Z-BosoN which is basically the conversation line which I base my case upon, as well as calling out Djodref as someone who posts a lot but says little. The latter also seems perfectly reasonable from where I'm standing and as you must have noticed, I'm against Z-BosoN on the subject of the former. This post was addressed to DP. Yet again, you are really just repeating points and just agreeing with my views on the matter and defending me. + Show Spoiler + On September 29 2012 00:24 Alsn wrote: Given the evidence so far no, I don't, and frankly I don't see why that's so hard to believe. Given his history, it should be easy to see for anyone that while he has different town and scum metas(as pointed out by Hapahauli in the obs QT of NMMXVII), his comments so far this game is entirely in line with the way he usually posts during D1. Basically just writing up whatever is on his mind. That to me doesn't really increase or decrease the chances of him flipping either way(but the setup of the game says all else being equal, 75% of the players are green, 25% are scum) Yes, you called him out for good reason because his arguments(like so many times before this game) make little to no sense. But right now the only thing I really agree actually points to him being scum is what you call his scum slip. I just do not agree with you of just how damning that statement is. The first thing that sprang to mind when I saw you quoting that was simply that townie was an odd word to use, why not use player? But a confirmed scum slip? Come on, it's not like he said something that is entirely outside the realm of possibility for a town player to say. "Townie" wouldn't be the word I'd use, but I just can't see it as that obvious a scum slip. I'll accept that you are not necessarily wrong for thinking so however. Given that there are no other developments then sure, I'll admit that there's at least a higher chance of kush being scum than a random lurker being scum. But I would really like it if we could at least try to get better odds than that. Best case scenario for me would be actually having everyone talk, present cases and opinions and if no one else presents themselves as scummy, then and only then will I roll the dice on kush. Remember, there are 3 scum, not only one. Who knows, if he's scum as you say, he might look even scummier by lynch time. The case being what it is with kush, I can see now that what you were doing wasn't tunneling per se. However, I think you are doing the very thing you are accusing me of doing where you say debears was trying to "shut down" the case against kush. Like I've said several times now, that's not at all how I interpreted it, only that we shouldn't limit ourselves to a single discussion topic which at the time I felt debears was trying to suggest. Something that I happen to agree with. This statement makes little sense to me. You say you were not tunneling, which I can now appreciate as probably true, but up until recently was not clear at all to me(and probably not to anyone else either). You had made quite a lot of posts in a row with kush as the only topic, as well as trying to convince others in the thread that he absolutely, 100%, no doubt whatsoever must be scum. I didn't find it unreasonable that someone would point that fact out to you. My "premise" was simply that if I find an argument reasonable, someone else trying to poke holes in that argument might not have the same motivations as myself, thus they are suspicious. The bolded line is ridiculous however, especially in context with the sentence before it. What makes you so sure that we would have "a lot of info to go off" in the case of everyone tunneling kush and us lynching him? My A) vs. B) scenario that you are referring to was dependent on the hypothetical scenario of everyone tunneling kush(which I already explained seemed to be where things were going at the time). I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt and say that you misunderstood what I was trying to say instead of deliberately using a red herring to try and discredit me. With that in mind, based on your willingness to put yourself out there, I have a slight town read on you. Looking at this post, let's keep in mind what Alsn has done at this point. He has defended me. He has defended Kush, playing off scumslip. His only scumhunt cases are against darth and z-bo. His case against darth is based off darth's hard tunneling of kush. His case on z-bo is Z-bo's post on SDM and Z-Bo's post on me. Also, look at how he brings up "Everyone bring up a case and we'll look for other scummy people". Yet, he has failed to actually do the same. He now thinks Darth is town by suddenly changing his mind on the tunneling issue, even though he believes tunneling isn't good. " I would like you to explain what's so amazingly pro-town about tunneling kush from the very beginning. I find the risks of that approach to be very high from a town perspective." Now, I would like to move on to another topic with Alsn. He promises scumhunting and big posts. He wants everyone to make good cases about people other than kush. Yet, he doesn't actually follow through. + Show Spoiler + On September 29 2012 17:40 Alsn wrote: Just now caught up and saw this post. Really? I Said I'd be back about 12 hours before lynch, I've been reading the thread for an hour which makes that statement pretty much exactly right. But your own comment on the other hand is from before I even said I'd be waking up and checking the thread. You are not making yourself look any better than when I first called you out for grasping at straws. Will be posting some pretty substantial posts(I suspect, based on what I've read so far) within the next couple of hours. Here, he promises substantial posts. These are the next three posts. + Show Spoiler + On September 29 2012 18:17 Alsn wrote: First, I'd like to start things with stating so far D1 has pretty much lived up to my exact nightmare scenario that I speculated about when arguing with DP yesterday. Everyone is voting kush with only very little discussion about any other topic(mainly, the debears-boson exchange). Looking at the vote count, the last official count says 7, and now corrosion added his vote for a total of 8. With myself that would be 9, the exact number of town in this game. From my point of view, unless kushm4sta, Djodref and Lesrah are the 3 scum, there are scum pushing this lynch. Given that, I'm really starting to dislike this lynch. I agree however that kush has been mostly concerned with defending himself against perceived injustice rather than actually trying to hunt scum, this still does not convince me that he is scum. Lynching scum with an overwhelming majority D1 just seems like way too improbably. Sure, if we had to fight tooth and nail to get 7 votes, I might buy it, but that's not the case. It seems to me there must be scum sheeping onto this lynch. Like I've stated before I can go along with the kush lynch, but I'd rather try and lynch my top scum read at this point and with the current developments, I see a kush lynch more as a last resort than my main scum read. Unfortunately, this argument is only available to people who have yet to vote and are town, as well as to scum since other than myself only scum are aware of my alignment. For everyone else, the "unless a, b and c are scum" argument will include me. My argument is at least enough to convince myself, so I'll be scouring the thread for the next couple of hours to see if my "gut scum reads" so far have any merit and if so push that/those case(s) instead. If it turns out that they are going nowhere, I will vote kush. But I still feel we have enough time to at least have a discussion on the topic of "just wtf is going on here?!". This post is odd. His main points are 1)There are scum voting for kush (duh) 2) He doesn't like the kush lynch and 3) He is going to try to lynch his top scum read and "scour the thread" for others. There is nothing of substance in this post. He's just stating the obvious and promising more scumhunting. + Show Spoiler + On September 29 2012 18:28 Alsn wrote: A quick addendum, I'm aware that scum pushing the lynch does not exonerate kush since they could be bussing him. However, given the assumption that kush is scum and there are active scum among the voters, I just find it more likely that they would try and find another solution than bussing, especially since it's D1. That's my main reason for not being convinced that kush is scum. The next post is nothing better. Nothing substantial. Just speculation on what the scum would do. + Show Spoiler + On September 29 2012 18:29 Alsn wrote: Right, I missed that, thanks for pointing it out. That just confirms it though, from my point of view there are scum pushing for his lynch. For everyone else out there, unless me, Lesrah and kush are the scumteam, there are scum among the voters. Yet again, he's repeating his points. Nothing substantial. His promise of something was not kept. Still no actual scumhunting. Ok. This post just repeats his earlier points. Now comes his change of opinion + Show Spoiler + On September 29 2012 21:15 Alsn wrote: I've been doing some soul searching and I'm starting to agree that it's not worth it to try and push any other cases right now. Mostly because my entire premise was that I was thinking it to be unlikely for kush to be scum. I realise that after trying to put into words why I think that is so, I have nothing other than the fact that I "feel" him to be town, which is a really stupid reason for absolving him. I thought I could back it up by saying he's been pressured to hard, there's no way he's responsible for not scum hunting. But in the end, I can't find a logical reason to forgive him if I exclude my own gut feeling from the equation. I think now that my best option is to hold on to whatever small reads I have(because while I have some suspicions, I don't think they are rock solid) until after the lynch is over. Because at least then, we will have more information. So for now, although my gut is screaming at me, I'll commit to voting for kush, mostly because most of what I said about BosoN has returned somewhat satisfactory answers, I really don't like the way a lot of people got away with not basically posting anything at all(I'm looking at you, Djodref, corrosion, Omniscient, RemedySC). I think that's probably what irks me the most, the thing I was most hoping would not happen, did happen. ##Vote: kushm4sta Ok a "change of heart" changes his views on kush and scumhunting. I can understand changing his view on kush. However, he had been adamant that people push cases on people other than kush all day. Yet, it wasn't worth it anymore. Then, he says in the same post he doesn't like how those 4 got away with not posting? Why didn't he call them out if he wanted to scumhunt so bad? Why is he leaving the job up to others and just calling out people he wants to be looked at? + Show Spoiler + On September 29 2012 21:28 Alsn wrote: By the way, just to clarify about my vote. I realised that my entire vote count argument falls apart if there's no compelling reason to believe kush to be town, and asking myself the following question kinda shocked me: "What has kush done for town?" I couldn't find an answer to that question, no matter how hard I looked. As such, I can't not vote for him. The wording in the last statement is weird. It implies that he was looking for reasons to not vote kush. + Show Spoiler + On September 29 2012 21:31 Alsn wrote: Seriously, I need a break from this as I'm feeling indecisive as shit at the moment while I woke up brimming with confidence that I would find some scum today. I'll be checking in on the thread all the way until lynch, so I'll reply if you need me to, but I don't think I'll be making any monster posts. Here he admits he did not scumhunt. He says he is indecisive. + Show Spoiler + On September 30 2012 04:39 Alsn wrote: I actually find some of your arguments very compelling. I agree that his 180 on Djodref looks scummy, but I don't agree with your original argument that him making that case on both you and Djodref is inherently scummy just because the cases are similar. I however think that your pressuring has yielded fruit. I happen to agree that your initial feud with debears was on pretty shaky grounds, which is why I spoke out against you at that point. It may just have been me misinterpreting your tone/intentions, but nevertheless I feel most of the early-game arguments debears put forward were relatively sound, and you weren't necessarily in the right for attacking them. His responses do seem convoluted though. To be fair, I think his "scum slip"(the one where he all but proclaimed Djod town) is pretty much the exact same type of slip that kush committed. Basically, directly suggesting that he should pm marv could be seen as him knowing djod's alignment. But I think just as with the kush slip, it's definitely not 100%. It could be a typo, he could have just been lazy and not wanted to say marv/hapa, there could be many different reasons. Anything he says himself probably won't sway anyone though. I'm actually surprised there hasn't been more of an outcry about it. So to sum up, I disagree that debears is clearly wrong for saying that your initial case was weak, however, I feel like he has some pretty scummy explanations for some of his actions, particularly wrt Djodref. I think your case has gone from pretty nit picky to a rather strong case. So I think I'll withdraw my FoS on you, your explanation for your behaviour concerning SDM earlier was satisfactory, and I will probably have to go through your case against him at least one more time before I can be sure, but it seems to be pretty solid to me. I would like to see some input from the less active players with regards to the entire debears/boson debate. Because currently I'm having pretty much null reads on all of the following: Omniscient, RemedySC, Corrosion, Djodref(someone else remind me if there's anyone I've missed please). A few of them have posted slightly scummy or slightly town, but either way it's very difficult for me to make up my mind one way or the other right now. If we assume that kush wasn't trolling us with the "I'm red" part, then we have quite some time before we ever need to worry about mylo/lylo, but I'd still like for us to get there without either being forced to lynch 4 null-reading lurkers, or to have them left in the game at that stage. Here is another worthless post. His whole point is "Z-bo's case may have validity". Then he gives us some reads, except they are 4 null reads. No scum hunting. Not any actual contribution. + Show Spoiler + On September 30 2012 19:18 Alsn wrote: Now you're just misunderstanding me, I had a gut scum read on you due to me feeling unjustifiably attacked. I didn't want to say that out loud while I was questioning you at the time. But like I explained when I examined your filter as well as when you replied to me, things became much clearer and thus I re-evaluated you. Ah finally, he actually states a scum read. However, earlier he said he wanted to push a lynch for a top scum read. He didn't do that. A FOS isn't pushing a lynch. He never took a decisive "you're scum" stance day 1. Alsn's whole day 1 was centered on kush being town, and mediating the conflict between me and Z-Bo. Where was the scumhunting? Where was the real contribution that he promised? -----after just reading Alsn's big post---------- @Alsn However, 1) My posting to defend myself day 1 was because I thought (and still do) that most of Z-Boson's case is dumb and confirmation bias (which you agree with me about according to your post. 2) I chose Z-Boson because they way he FOS'd me back was OMGUS to me. Djo is a noob. Z-Boson isn't. Z-Boson would know better to first, calll out a player for no reason early on and overstate that player's views. And two, FOS me with shitty reasoning. 3) My main problem with Z-Boson is that he was looking only at mafia motivations in his post (confirmation bias if he is town, if he is scum, trying to frame someone). Also, his association case about modwarnings was flat out unreasonable and follows WIFOM. Also, he was trying way too hard to lobby his case against me. It seems the only real part of his argument that everyone agrees with is the pm marv post I addressed to Djo, which I have done my best to explain. I don't see his case as strong. Yet, he feels its the mother of all cases, calling it a "shitbomb" on me earlier. How can a townie be so sure of himself besides confirmation bias? That said, Z-Boson has made a case against you which I agree with. He came off more reasonable today with the questions he asked me. For that, I do not have such a strong stance on him at this moment. However, you seem a little bit too obsessed with our argument. Your post is in essence a giant summary of what happened. You state a scumread on me, which is improvement. However, I don't feel your scumhunting is original. Your reasoning for FOS on me is problematic. I believe I have already been called out for posting defensively. Also if "This all leads me to believe Z-BosoN is suffering from massive confirmation bias", as I stated, why wouldn't I defend myself extensively? I have been called out by Z-Bo for inconsistency. Read above this for some reasoning on choosing one over the other. And finally, you don't see my cases pointing out Z-Boson as scummy, yet you agree my cases say reasonable things? "Here he addresses debears final post, a post which like I just pointed out says reasonable things." Just because you think someone's case about someone else being scum isn't correct, if the case is reasonable, that shouldn't make you think that the accuser is scum That reasoning doesn't make sense, based on your own conclusions. He still makes it a point to say my case is dumb, confirmation biased, etc. Goes back on my first FoS on him, when at this instance I had already made myself clear, on the SDM thing. Anyways, he then says this very interesting comment on my second post on Alsn: + Show Spoiler + On October 01 2012 15:00 debears wrote: I made extensive cases against corrosion and alsn. Z-Bo's most recent case against alsn was stuff I already pointed out. Look at my filter When, as you yourselves can compare, my case goes a lot into mafia-mentality and why Alsn's posts would make sense with him coming from a mafia perspective. This is another one of those things that are interpretative, and mine is that this post came off highly as a "give me some town cred" one. I don't see why a townie debears would make it a point to go ahead and say this. Another point here to draw your own conclusions. His making a lot of cases and defenses of the cases against him indicate a high level of activity. It does not make him town, as he seems to feel, but it does not make him "scum wanting to look town based on what I proposed" like DarthPunk suggested, it's a null tell. Why he is a better lynch choice Summing it up, he's shown quite a bit of mafia mentality, as I've outlined above in some of the instances. He has very weird interactions with a now-confirmed scum kush, as I've outlined on the initial day 1 case, but not with enough weight. Whether he's a better candidate will be augmented depending on how you interpret his behavior. Of course I've missed a lot of points, and of course some things here are likely biased. I've done as best I could as to try to convince you all of why both of them would be scum. Like hell I'm going to proof read this. What I'm jheavily bothered with, atm, is how me and DP are the only ones actively trying to sort this out. A lot of the lesser content posters have been quite inactive regarding the cases on Alsn and debears, and their own defenses. I will deal with this later, but for now, honor this post and read every fucking thing I've written. DON'T skip the spoilered parts, as they also have key info regarding my views and my opinions. Also, I will unvote here, because I don't want people to sheep. I have formed my opinion already on who I want lynched, and will see what the general town feel is tomorrow, when I come back. May the best scum prevail! ##Unvote | ||
|
Z-BosoN
Brazil2590 Posts
On October 02 2012 15:49 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: Is this guy famous or something? Which games has he been playing in? infamous, I'd say. Read the first few posts from Liquid City mafia =p Thanks for catching up SS. Read my latest posts and see if you maintain your opinion. | ||
|
Z-BosoN
Brazil2590 Posts
Once again, Mafia screwing over my academic life, I really have to control my time management. I'll just stick around discussing with whoever may be online atm. | ||
|
DarthPunk
Australia10854 Posts
On October 02 2012 17:18 Z-BosoN wrote: Hmm, screw sleep. School starts in about two hours anyways, I'll just sleep there. Once again, Mafia screwing over my academic life, I really have to control my time management. I'll just stick around discussing with whoever may be online atm. That makes me feel bad for you man  | ||
|
Z-BosoN
Brazil2590 Posts
On October 02 2012 16:21 Shady Sands wrote: So at this point I have a moderate scum read on Alsn and strong town read on Darthpunk. I'm still not sold on Debears yet. Every time people push him as a lynch and everyone just nods along and agrees (this is based on a cursory ready through 30+ pages of filter late at night, so pardon me if I'm totally wrong about this), I get a wierd feeling in the pit of my stomach. Why? Because scum is already down one, there is almost zero chance they'd accede easily to a second consecutive bus. So if everyone is nodding along on Debears, and scum isn't going to roll over and bus again, then, WIFOM as this reasoning is, it doesn't seem reasonable that Debears should be scum. Alsn, however, feels scummy to me. Why?
All four points are not damning guilt in and of themselves. But combined, they point a pretty compelling picture of a scum Alsn. Right now he's my strongest read and as such ##Vote Alsn However, he's only a moderate scumread. Depending on what happens between now and when I check in the thread in about 16 or 17 hours, I might change my mind. This would be true, except that only 4 out of 12 people have agreed on debears looking scummy (now 3). It still is a lot more than alsn though, so that's definitely a thought. What do you think of the RSC/Omniscient duo? Also, I don't understand if you are replacing Lesh or corrosion, you say one thing, mod says another.. And lynch happens in less than 12 hours.... 15-17 hours = nighttime. Hopefully you can check in before then. | ||
|
Z-BosoN
Brazil2590 Posts
| ||
|
Z-BosoN
Brazil2590 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + On October 02 2012 07:43 Stutters695 wrote: I'm really suspicious of Alsn. Again red is for emphasis inside of the spoilers. His second post of the game he puts a FoS on Kush. + Show Spoiler [FoS on Kushm4sta] + On September 28 2012 17:56 Alsn wrote: Wow, upon reading the thread I realise that kush has been following the exact pattern I just now specified to be the way not to play if he wanted to absolve himself in my eyes. In fact, I could go back to my initial posts to him in NMMXXV saying almost the exact same thing. As such, I think I have no choice but to cast a: FoS kushm4sta kush, in order for me to let up, I want you to stop it with your ridiculous knee-jerk play and actually point out why you think other people are scummy as opposed to why you yourself is so obviously town. While the following idiom is quite ironic in a forum game, actions speak louder than words and you defending yourself is just that, meaningless words. Start proving to everyone that you are concerned with finding scum instead of worrying about your silly streak. That being said, I think everyone else is jumping the gun here, kush is an extremely easy target to pick on, especially since he almost never seems to think before he posts. The scumslip that Darth and others pointed out can definitely be seen as damning. However, I am not inclined to agree with the following post from Darth: This last part seems to overly simplify the matter to me. The only reason? I myself can see a few reasons, but I would like kush to reply himself before I comment further as I don't want to give him an easy out. I can state for the record that unless kush shapes up considerably, I'm all in favour of lynching him. Simply because him playing like his normal self would be a liability for town later on due to his inclination to just defend himself over hunting scum. However, I definitely want to give him the benefit of the doubt and allow him to actually try and show that he has town's best interest in mind. So until then, while I definitely would like everyone to share their reads on kush so far, that is not enough for D1. We need to start exploring different possibilities because if we decide to lynch kush and he flips green, spending all of D1 talking about him will put us back at square one minus two townies. I'll make another post within an hour or two on another topic as I think I've made myself perfectly clear on where I stand on kush, but right now I need breakfast. The most important thing to focus on from this is even when he FoSes Kush he states that he thinks everyone is jumping the gun, but if Kush doesn't shape up his posting he is ok with lynching him. This post and the next one are what made me go WTF. So now that the game has dragged on and Kush's play has deteriorated, what happened to "unless kush shapes up considerably, I'm all in favour of lynching him." ? You also say you'd rather try and lynch your top scumread (first red highlight) but up until this post you haven't posted a single scum read. The best you've done is questioned Z-Boson until you dropped it over time. Why are you suggesting we should have lynched someone else without posting a case or even who you are suspicious of? Additionally who were those "gut scum reads" you mentioned? Going forward to where you + Show Spoiler [Voting for Kushm4sta] + On September 29 2012 21:15 Alsn wrote: I've been doing some soul searching and I'm starting to agree that it's not worth it to try and push any other cases right now. Mostly because my entire premise was that I was thinking it to be unlikely for kush to be scum. I realise that after trying to put into words why I think that is so, I have nothing other than the fact that I "feel" him to be town, which is a really stupid reason for absolving him. I thought I could back it up by saying he's been pressured to hard, there's no way he's responsible for not scum hunting. But in the end, I can't find a logical reason to forgive him if I exclude my own gut feeling from the equation. I think now that my best option is to hold on to whatever small reads I have(because while I have some suspicions, I don't think they are rock solid) until after the lynch is over. Because at least then, we will have more information. So for now, although my gut is screaming at me, I'll commit to voting for kush, mostly because most of what I said about BosoN has returned somewhat satisfactory answers, I really don't like the way a lot of people got away with not basically posting anything at all(I'm looking at you, Djodref, corrosion, Omniscient, RemedySC). I think that's probably what irks me the most, the thing I was most hoping would not happen, did happen. ##Vote: kushm4sta Now I'm a little confused with his logic. With his vote the lynch is essentially finished (if scum wanted to last minute switch they'd be giving themselves away and it would be GG) but instead of sharing any of his reads (his gut feelings or his top scumread) he decides he should wait til after the lynch to share any "reads". Doesn't this directly go against his "we need to start exploring different possibilities"? He even listed four lurkers he could have pressured them throughout the day, but instead he argued with DP about Kush (whom we shouldn't focus entirely on according to Alsn). His whole day 1 posting is scummy as hell to me and reeks of someone who tried to help defend Kush before Kush melted down and tried to retroactively justify this defense through maintaining that stance. His case on debears is a good contribution (at first glance, I haven't read it in context of the thread yet) but I want to see how he explains his contradictions and false promises from day 1. He's not a realistic lynch choice for today, but until he can actually be more useful ##FoS Stutters | ||
|
DarthPunk
Australia10854 Posts
| ||
|
DarthPunk
Australia10854 Posts
So. Who are we going to Consolidate onto? Z- Boson? SDM? thoughts? | ||
|
DarthPunk
Australia10854 Posts
| ||
|
thrawn2112
United States6918 Posts
On October 02 2012 17:26 Z-BosoN wrote: Also, I don't understand if you are replacing Lesh or corrosion, you say one thing, mod says another.. He's replacing corrosion. link | ||
|
DarthPunk
Australia10854 Posts
Is lesrah getting replaced/modkilled or showing up at all? | ||
|
thrawn2112
United States6918 Posts
On October 02 2012 18:19 DarthPunk wrote: Is lesrah getting replaced/modkilled or showing up at all? He contacted me and was given a warning for D1 and was told to get in the game. If he doesn't show up by the deadline he will be modkilled, unless a replacement can be found by then. | ||
|
DarthPunk
Australia10854 Posts
On October 02 2012 18:38 thrawn2112 wrote: He contacted me and was given a warning for D1 and was told to get in the game. If he doesn't show up by the deadline he will be modkilled, unless a replacement can be found by then. OK. Thanks. | ||
|
Djodref
France3332 Posts
On September 29 2012 07:44 kushm4sta wrote: debears I saved you bro...scumteam 4 lyfe Also I'd like to show everybody than this other one was a real scumslip after all On September 29 2012 01:55 debears wrote: @Djoref Please pm marv for help. The coaches are great So if you feel like me, please vote debears ! Also I didn't have the time yet to follow in detail all the cases on Alsn. But the few I've seen is enough for me to vote for him to secure a lynch on him if needed. In this case, I promise again to give my explanations for the support of his lynch. Anyway it looks like we got them all already for me. And on a side note, I would like people to vote ASAP because I'm not going to be here for the lynch deadline so I can see if can stay on debears or not. Also is the modkill, if there is one, happening at the lynch deadline or at the end of D2 | ||
| ||
