EPTCan we have a vote count PLZ?
Newbie Mini Mafia XXVIII - Page 34
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DarthPunk
Australia10854 Posts
Can we have a vote count PLZ? | ||
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DarthPunk
Australia10854 Posts
On October 02 2012 21:03 Alsn wrote: Ah, right, the one you posted yesterday that I didn't have time to respond to. Let me see. I've touched on my kush reasoning already but I basically felt the same thing Shady now claims to be feeling for debears. Things were going way too easily, as such I was(in hindsight, probably wrongly) trying to find reasons for why people would try and frame kush(and whom). It didn't occur to me that scum would have bussed him without putting up much of a fight. I suppose that actually supports your own argument that he "blew up" while I wasn't there to defend him, but I would have had no intentions of doing so anyway. I only started to feel defensive for him once there were an overwhelming amount of votes against him. See my somewhat convoluted "vote argument". In hindsight I probably should have just kept that line of thinking to myself. Your final question about easy outs. At the time I objected to the supposed 100% scum slip based on the idea that he could have used "townie" as a replacement word for player. Ironically, that's the exact same explanation he used himself, which probably added to my feeling that he was getting framed. At the time I was merely giving him the benefit of the doubt though. His reasons that anything else felt awkward was pretty silly but I must have dismissed it for when I finally saw his reasons, I was in full "this is too easy" mode. And now I really don't want to explain myself any longer. I'll answer short questions, but these last few posts are my final attempts at trying to explain my reasons for acting the way I've done so far. I'll make a last attempt at finding some scum before my possible lynch, but at this point I'm afraid since most people have just been sheeping onto myself and debears, finding any might be difficult. Th bolded is false. You were defensive towards him when it was just me pushing him. | ||
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Alsn
Sweden995 Posts
debears (3) - djodref, Omniscient4983, Darthpunk, Alsn (4) - Sonic Death Monkey, debears, Shady Sands, RemedySC no lynch (0) | ||
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DarthPunk
Australia10854 Posts
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Alsn
Sweden995 Posts
On October 02 2012 23:36 DarthPunk wrote: Seriously. Like I just pointed out to someone else(I think stutters but I don't remember). Just because I say a few lines in my argument to caution against tunnelling and sheeping doesn't mean I'm defending him.Th bolded is false. You were defensive towards him when it was just me pushing him. | ||
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DarthPunk
Australia10854 Posts
On October 02 2012 23:48 Alsn wrote: Seriously. Like I just pointed out to someone else(I think stutters but I don't remember). Just because I say a few lines in my argument to caution against tunnelling and sheeping doesn't mean I'm defending him. But stuff like that is exactly how you defend people as scum. You attack the argument and process of the player attacking your buddy. You don't blatantly defend them. I don't get how you don't understand this. | ||
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DarthPunk
Australia10854 Posts
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debears
United States2516 Posts
@Alsn To me d1 case on you isn't as strong as the d2 case. You keep saying you don't want to defend yourself, yet you haven't scumhunted Your vote for me was weak + Show Spoiler + On October 02 2012 00:21 Alsn wrote: That was an obs QT. I was commenting as an observer, not as a player. If you really wanted to know how I play you should check my last actual game. I never committed to anyone as scum in that game either, for the same reasons as now. I am not confident at all that I have found any scum yet. The only one's that are giving me scum vibes are you and some of the lurky posters, but having gone through their filters I keep coming up with any compelling reasons that I can't hand wave away in my head as "this guy is probably new". Right now I can only go on the fact that I find you scummier than anyone else, but I'm actually quite scared of the possibility that some of the people I think are town might really just be clever scum. I'm not all that convinced about you to be honest but if I had to wager I'd give you flipping scum something like a 40% chance. I need more information and for now I'd be content with confirming your alignment. And the main reason you want to lynch me is that you want to get information. Oh and you don't feel anyone is more likely scum than not (40% is less than 50/50). Can I also bring up a post from your last game on this? + Show Spoiler + On August 24 2012 11:59 Alsn wrote: I've already warned you, this is not a game based on gut feeling and emotion. A statement such as "85% mafia" is something which needs a lot more evidence than a few one-liners this early into the game. You are providing a lot of controversy with very little thoughtful analysis. I ask that if you are truly town to take a good look at yourself and think. You most certainly do not have to blame someone else in order for yourself to look like less of a target. In fact, baseless accusation only lets scum attack you for being incoherent while in one fell swoop make themselves look like town-heroes. This with town having only to agree that you were playing very weirdly. I do believe that you are simply responding in a knee-jerk fashion to our attacks against you. Take a deep breath, take a look at what you have said, and think about if you really had good reason to say the things you did. If not, simply tell us. But if you truly suspect someone, you absolutely must provide better evidence than "waaah, he called me bad!", otherwise the rest of us can't make any sense of your suspicions. Didn't you just use the whole percent mafia thing on me in a one-liner? Also, you stated multiple times d1 about your gut, yet last game you didn't believe in "gut feeling" as town. | ||
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debears
United States2516 Posts
In your "race for the lynch" case, you mentioned that you gave me the Alsn case to fall back on. Look at the timestamp + Show Spoiler + On September 30 2012 17:13 Z-BosoN wrote: So I woke up a couple of hours earlier than I should have. Instead of going back to sleep, I decide to go read some filters. Sometimes I hate this game rofl. Anyways, I will agree with one thing DP said, alsn is scummy as shit. Look at his stance on kush throughout the thread. Brief timeline here: ACT I - Kush. If you are scummy like last game, I will lynch you no matter what. + Show Spoiler + On September 28 2012 16:54 Alsn wrote: Hey everyone, just woke up and was about to check when the game was supposed to start. Imagine my surprise when it's already started! Although looking closely the game started as I went to sleep, so I wouldn't have been able to participate until now either way. So in any case, I'm Alsn, I like logic. My previous mafia games so far amount to a single one, a game where I was NKd N1 as Vanilla Townie. My filter for that game can be found here. Other than that I have only ever played SC2 Mafia in any significant amounts(a game while using the same core rules, plays extremely different due to the time constraints and limits on discussion). If you are interested, I was also active in the /obs QT discussion of NMMXXVII which can be found here. So, with that out of the way, I read the first few posts and saw that this game continues the trend of lurker policy lynching. I agree that there needs to be pressure on scum to actually post, since without scum posts to analyse all the scumhunting in the world will almost certainly only turn up townies(due to lurkers generally being null reads). That said, I followed Tl Mafia LVII wherein there was a lot of discussion about lynching "trolly meta" players and I would like to take that one step further. Kush, while I realize that you have a posting style which by its nature is very confrontational and inflammatory, I feel that unless you actually provide some concrete analysis without using almost purely OMGUS argumentation that it is in town's best interest to just straight up lynch you right away. Simply put, unless your cases actually provide substance then I think you will just be a late game liability for town, mostly giving everyone a null read and potentially forcing people to make a town or scum read on you without having much of an idea what you are. So to sum up, kush, I can definitely forgive you for your "style" of posting but I will not under any circumstance forgive you for posting shitty content, just like I will not forgive anyone else for doing so either. Understand that I'm not singling you out as a target, I'm using your history as an example for what I consider scummy play. Now, on to actually read the thread and see if I can respond to something. ACT II - It is as we feared. Kush has defiled us all. FOS Kush + Show Spoiler + On September 28 2012 17:56 Alsn wrote: Wow, upon reading the thread I realise that kush has been following the exact pattern I just now specified to be the way not to play if he wanted to absolve himself in my eyes. In fact, I could go back to my initial posts to him in NMMXXV saying almost the exact same thing. As such, I think I have no choice but to cast a: FoS kushm4sta kush, in order for me to let up, I want you to stop it with your ridiculous knee-jerk play and actually point out why you think other people are scummy as opposed to why you yourself is so obviously town. While the following idiom is quite ironic in a forum game, actions speak louder than words and you defending yourself is just that, meaningless words. Start proving to everyone that you are concerned with finding scum instead of worrying about your silly streak. That being said, I think everyone else is jumping the gun here, kush is an extremely easy target to pick on, especially since he almost never seems to think before he posts. The scumslip that Darth and others pointed out can definitely be seen as damning. However, I am not inclined to agree with the following post from Darth: This last part seems to overly simplify the matter to me. The only reason? I myself can see a few reasons, but I would like kush to reply himself before I comment further as I don't want to give him an easy out. I can state for the record that unless kush shapes up considerably, I'm all in favour of lynching him. Simply because him playing like his normal self would be a liability for town later on due to his inclination to just defend himself over hunting scum. However, I definitely want to give him the benefit of the doubt and allow him to actually try and show that he has town's best interest in mind. So until then, while I definitely would like everyone to share their reads on kush so far, that is not enough for D1. We need to start exploring different possibilities because if we decide to lynch kush and he flips green, spending all of D1 talking about him will put us back at square one minus two townies. I'll make another post within an hour or two on another topic as I think I've made myself perfectly clear on where I stand on kush, but right now I need breakfast. ACT III - DarthPunk, you are going overboard on kush. I find you using ridiculous logic. How are you so sure of this and that? Hm.... I'll go with you being townie, ya know, for throwing yourself out there. + Show Spoiler + On September 28 2012 22:03 Alsn wrote: Astonishing how? I would like you to explain what's so amazingly pro-town about tunneling kush from the very beginning. I find the risks of that approach to be very high from a town perspective. There are two scenarios: A) He flips green, and unless he during the day completely changed his character we will have almost no way of distinguishing who among the people who pushed for his lynch were scum and who were town. B) He flips scum, at this point I just don't find that likely enough to risk A) happening. That fact alone is enough for me to see that post of debears as entirely reasonable, since both of you at the time were basically calling out kush for every single post he was making(for good reason, but not if that's the only thing you are doing). + Show Spoiler + On September 29 2012 00:24 Alsn wrote: Given the evidence so far no, I don't, and frankly I don't see why that's so hard to believe. Given his history, it should be easy to see for anyone that while he has different town and scum metas(as pointed out by Hapahauli in the obs QT of NMMXVII), his comments so far this game is entirely in line with the way he usually posts during D1. Basically just writing up whatever is on his mind. That to me doesn't really increase or decrease the chances of him flipping either way(but the setup of the game says all else being equal, 75% of the players are green, 25% are scum) Yes, you called him out for good reason because his arguments(like so many times before this game) make little to no sense. But right now the only thing I really agree actually points to him being scum is what you call his scum slip. I just do not agree with you of just how damning that statement is. The first thing that sprang to mind when I saw you quoting that was simply that townie was an odd word to use, why not use player? But a confirmed scum slip? Come on, it's not like he said something that is entirely outside the realm of possibility for a town player to say. "Townie" wouldn't be the word I'd use, but I just can't see it as that obvious a scum slip. I'll accept that you are not necessarily wrong for thinking so however. Given that there are no other developments then sure, I'll admit that there's at least a higher chance of kush being scum than a random lurker being scum. But I would really like it if we could at least try to get better odds than that. Best case scenario for me would be actually having everyone talk, present cases and opinions and if no one else presents themselves as scummy, then and only then will I roll the dice on kush. Remember, there are 3 scum, not only one. Who knows, if he's scum as you say, he might look even scummier by lynch time. The case being what it is with kush, I can see now that what you were doing wasn't tunneling per se. However, I think you are doing the very thing you are accusing me of doing where you say debears was trying to "shut down" the case against kush. Like I've said several times now, that's not at all how I interpreted it, only that we shouldn't limit ourselves to a single discussion topic which at the time I felt debears was trying to suggest. Something that I happen to agree with. This statement makes little sense to me. You say you were not tunneling, which I can now appreciate as probably true, but up until recently was not clear at all to me(and probably not to anyone else either). You had made quite a lot of posts in a row with kush as the only topic, as well as trying to convince others in the thread that he absolutely, 100%, no doubt whatsoever must be scum. I didn't find it unreasonable that someone would point that fact out to you. My "premise" was simply that if I find an argument reasonable, someone else trying to poke holes in that argument might not have the same motivations as myself, thus they are suspicious. The bolded line is ridiculous however, especially in context with the sentence before it. What makes you so sure that we would have "a lot of info to go off" in the case of everyone tunneling kush and us lynching him? My A) vs. B) scenario that you are referring to was dependent on the hypothetical scenario of everyone tunneling kush(which I already explained seemed to be where things were going at the time). I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt and say that you misunderstood what I was trying to say instead of deliberately using a red herring to try and discredit me. With that in mind, based on your willingness to put yourself out there, I have a slight town read on you. INTERLUDE --- kush goes ape shit. Ravages town with his treachery. Denies every chance he has to be saved, and wails incessantly. The ACT I prophecy was correct. However... ACT IV - It is as I feared. Everyone is voting for kush with little discussion. I dislike this lynch. I'm ok with lynching kush, but I wanna lynch my biggest scum read. You know, the one I don't have. Also, I think that scum wouldn't just go ahead and bus. You know, they would probably most likely trying to find another solution other than bussing. You know, like the thing I'm trying to do right now. + Show Spoiler + On September 29 2012 18:17 Alsn wrote: First, I'd like to start things with stating so far D1 has pretty much lived up to my exact nightmare scenario that I speculated about when arguing with DP yesterday. Everyone is voting kush with only very little discussion about any other topic(mainly, the debears-boson exchange). Looking at the vote count, the last official count says 7, and now corrosion added his vote for a total of 8. With myself that would be 9, the exact number of town in this game. From my point of view, unless kushm4sta, Djodref and Lesrah are the 3 scum, there are scum pushing this lynch. Given that, I'm really starting to dislike this lynch. I agree however that kush has been mostly concerned with defending himself against perceived injustice rather than actually trying to hunt scum, this still does not convince me that he is scum. Lynching scum with an overwhelming majority D1 just seems like way too improbably. Sure, if we had to fight tooth and nail to get 7 votes, I might buy it, but that's not the case. It seems to me there must be scum sheeping onto this lynch. Like I've stated before I can go along with the kush lynch, but I'd rather try and lynch my top scum read at this point and with the current developments, I see a kush lynch more as a last resort than my main scum read. Unfortunately, this argument is only available to people who have yet to vote and are town, as well as to scum since other than myself only scum are aware of my alignment. For everyone else, the "unless a, b and c are scum" argument will include me. My argument is at least enough to convince myself, so I'll be scouring the thread for the next couple of hours to see if my "gut scum reads" so far have any merit and if so push that/those case(s) instead. If it turns out that they are going nowhere, I will vote kush. But I still feel we have enough time to at least have a discussion on the topic of "just wtf is going on here?!". On September 29 2012 18:28 Alsn wrote: A quick addendum, I'm aware that scum pushing the lynch does not exonerate kush since they could be bussing him. However, given the assumption that kush is scum and there are active scum among the voters, I just find it more likely that they would try and find another solution than bussing, especially since it's D1. That's my main reason for not being convinced that kush is scum. ACT V - The resolve. I've had a vision. It is inevitable, kush must be lynched. I have realized the errors of my ways and it is imperative that kush is lynched. + Show Spoiler + On September 29 2012 21:15 Alsn wrote: I've been doing some soul searching and I'm starting to agree that it's not worth it to try and push any other cases right now. Mostly because my entire premise was that I was thinking it to be unlikely for kush to be scum. I realise that after trying to put into words why I think that is so, I have nothing other than the fact that I "feel" him to be town, which is a really stupid reason for absolving him. I thought I could back it up by saying he's been pressured to hard, there's no way he's responsible for not scum hunting. But in the end, I can't find a logical reason to forgive him if I exclude my own gut feeling from the equation. I think now that my best option is to hold on to whatever small reads I have(because while I have some suspicions, I don't think they are rock solid) until after the lynch is over. Because at least then, we will have more information. So for now, although my gut is screaming at me, I'll commit to voting for kush, mostly because most of what I said about BosoN has returned somewhat satisfactory answers, I really don't like the way a lot of people got away with not basically posting anything at all(I'm looking at you, Djodref, corrosion, Omniscient, RemedySC). I think that's probably what irks me the most, the thing I was most hoping would not happen, did happen. ##Vote: kushm4sta sup scum? anyone? Notice when I first mention making a case on Alsn when I was guessing who Darth thought was scum. Look at the timestamp. On September 30 2012 10:37 debears wrote: @DP Alsn and Corrosion are your other two im betting. I'm making a case on both, with corrosion first. And then look at the corrosion case timestamp. Also, read the very last sentence of the post + Show Spoiler + On September 30 2012 11:51 debears wrote: @DP My second case that I mentioned last night was going to be SDM, for his meta this game is way off from last game in terms of activity. However, his posts are solid so far. Thus, I'm not gonna waste my time when there are others that need to be addressed. @Boson When looking for scum after the lynch of kush, my main targets are people who voted after it was clear that he was doomed. Also, I look at who doubted the reasoning for kush's lynch before he became doomed and then suddenly switched after he was doomed. All 4 of those lurkers fall into the category of voting for him after it was clear he would be lynched. Another person to add to this list is Alsn (who I will address later). By my count, the voting happened in this order 1)DP(cancel later) 2)Stutters 3)SDM 4)Z-Boson 5)Me 6)Omniscient 7)DP 8)RemedySC 9)Djodret 10)Corrosion 11)Alsn In terms of the 4 lurkers you wanted me to look at, I believe Corrosion would be the most likely scum. 1) Remedy's posting has been better than last games. I don't see anything eye popping 2) Djodref - He is wish washy with his convictions and seems easily persuaded. However, his case against corrosion seems to bear weight Those two are null reads for me atm. Now for the second two. Both come off as scummy. 3) Omniscient - His first big post A summary of the kush saga, no in depth analysis, he's a "little suspicious" The next post about kush Yet again, hasn't really stated a strong position. His only posts in terms of cases are about kush, yet doesn't really make a real read. Finally, the vote post He quickly turned from not being sure to voting based on my reasoning, although he is suspicious of me at this point, as shown by this post After the lynch, his posts go off a little bit. + Show Spoiler + On September 30 2012 06:27 Omniscient4983 wrote: I agree we should take the focus off of Debears, as Z-BosoN did a fair job of outlining the points against him. But why Corrosion? I realize he opposed the fact that Darth was so heavily attacking Kush, but I don't think he was casting him in a "scummy shadow". His case against Darth was based on nothing, really; just the fact that he thought pursuing the scum-slip and ignoring everyone else was a poor idea. I don't read Corrosion as scum at all. And Debears in no way looks more genuine than him. For someone suspicious of me, I do find it odd that you suddenly want to shift focus off me. Also, your defense of corrosion was odd. His posts have been scummy (bear with me on this one I am addressing Corrosion after omniscient). This next post is the first actual, original case I've seen him post I feel as though he didn't sufficiently read Remedy's arguments, which were decent. I'm not sure if Omniscient realized this but corrosion was making a case on darth, the primary attacker of kush. By refuting Corrosion's argument about DP, Remedy was actually helping the case against kush. He seems to understand what remedy was saying. Overall, this isn't a strong case. For that reason I'm going to wait for more posts from Omniscient. Corrosion, on the other hand, has stronger evidence piling up. First, his call out of remedy early in the game was unwarranted He wants Remedy to post more and tell him about Remedy's reads. However, he had not posted any reads of his own at this point. It's contradicting. Something that can make him look like he's contributing. Now, on to him post about Darth This post really raised my eyes looking back at it. First, he mentions darth's "everybody stop leaving after your intro" post. He doesn't see reason although the reason is clear at that moment: everyone was doing that. Next, he brings up about why darth brought up darth's past games. It was pretty easy to see at that point that I asked darth for that information. This indicates to me that he(corrosion) wasn't reading the thread. He was most likely skimming. At all stages in the game, a townie must be reading and rereading the thread, since a townie has no extra information and townies have to catch the mafia. Mafia, on the other hand, don't have to do the same. They can get away with skimming since they just need to keep the town distracted. Now, I'm going to pull out the phrase with red I'm not saying that I'm sure the scum slip is an actual slip, but if it is and it results in a succesful lynch, I think town got very lucky. Scum usually wouldn't slip in such an obvious manner. Notice the wording, "I think town got lucky". Not we, the town. He seems to be excluding himself from us. Not strong at all in itself, but something to notice. If he thinks that town would be lucky if kush flipped red, then it is sensible to assume that he thinks kush is town. Next post, + Show Spoiler + On September 29 2012 07:17 corrosion wrote: You're not seeing my points in the proper context. Now maybe you think my analysis is weak. I can understand that view. I haven't played in one of these before, so I'm not really good at seeing the difference between weak arguments and strong arguments. Some of the other posters in the thread encouraged new players to post, but maybe I should have waited awhile and tried to build a really solid case. I haven't made up mind yet, so I'll be voting tomorrow. I'm thinking Kush, but I'll browse the latest developments tomorrow and see if anything has changed by then. So he thinks kush will most likely be town, yet he is thinking about voting for him? That's not sensible. So, the one whom he thought would be a "lucky" scum flip is now his biggest scum read? In my eyes, this sudden flip can be easily explained if he is mafia. At this point, he is the second to last person to vote for kush. Kush is doomed. If he is mafia, he realizes there is no reason and should hop on the bandwagon. Notice that his reasoning is poor in previous posts. He never had a strong indication of kush as mafia. Furthermore, I want to point out that his only case at this point was kush. He had not done any scumhunting up to this point besides a one liner saying that I confirmed Djordref as town. You can say it's scumhunting but one line =/= a case. Hist next post is a response to Z-Boson. His responses are in the red (it's how he formatted it in his original post). + Show Spoiler + On September 29 2012 18:43 corrosion wrote: Adressing your issues: + Show Spoiler + 3) You are just rambling here, I think. I take the DP/kush exchange as being genuine, unless they are both scum and agreed to flaming each other. I don't think thta's likely, due to kush's fiery meta. The first paragraph was a mistake by me, explained in my previous post. The intention of the second paragraph, was to try to get some feedback from other posters. Right now, I don't think the case is strong at all so I actually think people should focus more on their own reads and trying to find the best lynching candidate. 4) I don't get the reasoning behind this post. You are trying to make a case on DP, and concluded that you don't feel like it and actually think that kush is a better lynch? Also, stutters has made a case on him. Why not reference that? I wasn't as much trying to make a case as just referencing my findings. I was trying the approach of focusing on one player (suggested in one of the guides). I figured that someone else was going to post a case on Kush, so I tried to focus on a player that noone else was pressuring much. I'll admit that my attempt seems to have failed quite a bit. The reason that I didn't reference Stutters, was that he made his case 7 minutes before I posted. I did not check the thread for new posts before I posted. This post is another one that makes me scratch my head. He has a vote on kush, who he doesn't think will flip scum, and a case on DP. He drops the case on DP, now calling it a "reference" and stating that he "wasn't trying to make a case". Here, he finally states his reasoning for voting kush. Notice the timestamp. Way after his vote His point 1) Notice the timestamp of his vote post. Now, look at the timestamp of kush's explanation + Show Spoiler + On September 28 2012 20:12 kushm4sta wrote: Sup have to make this post real quick. Will read everything and post on my phone late.r 1. Why are you putting my name in red like darth? it seems like you are subliminally trying to influence people to your cause. This is a game of logic not advertising. 2. My supposed scumslip: huh? What else should I have called you? Player? Person? Maybe but to me those things sound awkward. Townie just seemed like the most non awkward word to use. Innocent until proven guilty. That's how we do it in America bro. Corrosion's vote came way after the explanation. He had made no mention about disliking the explanation even through his vote post. The only time he brings it up is way after the vote post when he decides to suddenly explain the reasoning for his vote On pt 2) What did the no lynch have to do with his vote on kush? A no lynch was not even in the discussion. At this point, there were 2 good candidates for lynching. Me and Kush. This is all way too odd to ignore. And finally, the last post I will look at + Show Spoiler + On September 30 2012 05:16 corrosion wrote: I considered the possibility of both being scum early on but if both were scum, I see no reason whatsoever for Kush's scumslip. So I'm now saying that Darth is close to being confirmed town. This is something town should keep in mind during N1 and D2. It would be a spectacular bus if they did this on purpose. The only reason I can see for doing that, would be if Kush had slipped earlier in the thread. I do not think so but if someone wants to look into it, go ahead. I'm not going to spend my time on that. So he still has some suspicions in regard to DP, whom he was suspicious of d1. Yet, he says that some one else can check it out. He seems to not care about scumhunting and following his leads. He is not exhibiting townie behavior. If the town should keep it in mind, why isn't he researching it to help our cause? Overall, I could see Corrosion as scum. He follows the trend of what I look for. He doubted the case on kush (even tried a case against DP) but then suddenly switched to kush with no reasoning until later. His actions mostly have mafia motivations (unless I'm mistaken). Phew. Will have Alsn's case up most likely tomorrow. These take forever. And here is the post of my alsn case. Granted, it is after your post, but it took a long ass time. Also, I had to remove the whole Alsn flipflopping on kush after seeing your case on him. Also, + Show Spoiler + On October 01 2012 05:06 debears wrote: So now it's time for my case on Alsn. Z-Bo has posted a good case. Now, I want to add onto a key element that I feel Z-bo missed: Alsn's scumhunting (or lack thereof). Alsn's first post before the game. Everyone, if you do not know the depth of Alsn's focus and intelligence (or at least what it seems like to me) and stubborness, look at his posts from pregame and the obs qt from last game. If he was town, I would be sure that he would put his skills to work and actually attempt to be nked. Alright, on to the posts since the start of the game. + Show Spoiler + On September 28 2012 17:56 Alsn wrote: Wow, upon reading the thread I realise that kush has been following the exact pattern I just now specified to be the way not to play if he wanted to absolve himself in my eyes. In fact, I could go back to my initial posts to him in NMMXXV saying almost the exact same thing. As such, I think I have no choice but to cast a: FoS kushm4sta kush, in order for me to let up, I want you to stop it with your ridiculous knee-jerk play and actually point out why you think other people are scummy as opposed to why you yourself is so obviously town. While the following idiom is quite ironic in a forum game, actions speak louder than words and you defending yourself is just that, meaningless words. Start proving to everyone that you are concerned with finding scum instead of worrying about your silly streak. That being said, I think everyone else is jumping the gun here, kush is an extremely easy target to pick on, especially since he almost never seems to think before he posts. The scumslip that Darth and others pointed out can definitely be seen as damning. However, I am not inclined to agree with the following post from Darth: This last part seems to overly simplify the matter to me. The only reason? I myself can see a few reasons, but I would like kush to reply himself before I comment further as I don't want to give him an easy out. I can state for the record that unless kush shapes up considerably, I'm all in favour of lynching him. Simply because him playing like his normal self would be a liability for town later on due to his inclination to just defend himself over hunting scum. However, I definitely want to give him the benefit of the doubt and allow him to actually try and show that he has town's best interest in mind. So until then, while I definitely would like everyone to share their reads on kush so far, that is not enough for D1. We need to start exploring different possibilities because if we decide to lynch kush and he flips green, spending all of D1 talking about him will put us back at square one minus two townies. I'll make another post within an hour or two on another topic as I think I've made myself perfectly clear on where I stand on kush, but right now I need breakfast. His point is fair and I agreed upon it. Everyone focusing on one person day 1 is usually not good. However, his later actions did not really follow this statement. His cases against Z-Bo and DP were the only scumhunting during d1. His initial problem with Z-Bo was a point already addressed by me in terms of the post at SDM. This post in itself isn't a big deal. However, he continues to keep the argument the same and becomes stuck on the idea. + Show Spoiler + On September 28 2012 21:31 Alsn wrote: Uh, what? For what? I admit I haven't looked all that closely on debears posting since I mostly looked at his filter to try and figure out what Z-BosoN was referring to, but as far as I can see he has done three things so far, he has pointed out that he doesn't agree with your tunneling of kush. I find that a reasonable thing to say, although not overwhelmingly useful other than as a reminder to you that there are other players in this game(which you have obviously noted by now since you are questioning me!)  His other two arguments of note are against Z-BosoN which is basically the conversation line which I base my case upon, as well as calling out Djodref as someone who posts a lot but says little. The latter also seems perfectly reasonable from where I'm standing and as you must have noticed, I'm against Z-BosoN on the subject of the former. This post was addressed to DP. Yet again, you are really just repeating points and just agreeing with my views on the matter and defending me. + Show Spoiler + On September 29 2012 00:24 Alsn wrote: Given the evidence so far no, I don't, and frankly I don't see why that's so hard to believe. Given his history, it should be easy to see for anyone that while he has different town and scum metas(as pointed out by Hapahauli in the obs QT of NMMXVII), his comments so far this game is entirely in line with the way he usually posts during D1. Basically just writing up whatever is on his mind. That to me doesn't really increase or decrease the chances of him flipping either way(but the setup of the game says all else being equal, 75% of the players are green, 25% are scum) Yes, you called him out for good reason because his arguments(like so many times before this game) make little to no sense. But right now the only thing I really agree actually points to him being scum is what you call his scum slip. I just do not agree with you of just how damning that statement is. The first thing that sprang to mind when I saw you quoting that was simply that townie was an odd word to use, why not use player? But a confirmed scum slip? Come on, it's not like he said something that is entirely outside the realm of possibility for a town player to say. "Townie" wouldn't be the word I'd use, but I just can't see it as that obvious a scum slip. I'll accept that you are not necessarily wrong for thinking so however. Given that there are no other developments then sure, I'll admit that there's at least a higher chance of kush being scum than a random lurker being scum. But I would really like it if we could at least try to get better odds than that. Best case scenario for me would be actually having everyone talk, present cases and opinions and if no one else presents themselves as scummy, then and only then will I roll the dice on kush. Remember, there are 3 scum, not only one. Who knows, if he's scum as you say, he might look even scummier by lynch time. The case being what it is with kush, I can see now that what you were doing wasn't tunneling per se. However, I think you are doing the very thing you are accusing me of doing where you say debears was trying to "shut down" the case against kush. Like I've said several times now, that's not at all how I interpreted it, only that we shouldn't limit ourselves to a single discussion topic which at the time I felt debears was trying to suggest. Something that I happen to agree with. This statement makes little sense to me. You say you were not tunneling, which I can now appreciate as probably true, but up until recently was not clear at all to me(and probably not to anyone else either). You had made quite a lot of posts in a row with kush as the only topic, as well as trying to convince others in the thread that he absolutely, 100%, no doubt whatsoever must be scum. I didn't find it unreasonable that someone would point that fact out to you. My "premise" was simply that if I find an argument reasonable, someone else trying to poke holes in that argument might not have the same motivations as myself, thus they are suspicious. The bolded line is ridiculous however, especially in context with the sentence before it. What makes you so sure that we would have "a lot of info to go off" in the case of everyone tunneling kush and us lynching him? My A) vs. B) scenario that you are referring to was dependent on the hypothetical scenario of everyone tunneling kush(which I already explained seemed to be where things were going at the time). I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt and say that you misunderstood what I was trying to say instead of deliberately using a red herring to try and discredit me. With that in mind, based on your willingness to put yourself out there, I have a slight town read on you. Looking at this post, let's keep in mind what Alsn has done at this point. He has defended me. He has defended Kush, playing off scumslip. His only scumhunt cases are against darth and z-bo. His case against darth is based off darth's hard tunneling of kush. His case on z-bo is Z-bo's post on SDM and Z-Bo's post on me. Also, look at how he brings up "Everyone bring up a case and we'll look for other scummy people". Yet, he has failed to actually do the same. He now thinks Darth is town by suddenly changing his mind on the tunneling issue, even though he believes tunneling isn't good. " I would like you to explain what's so amazingly pro-town about tunneling kush from the very beginning. I find the risks of that approach to be very high from a town perspective." Now, I would like to move on to another topic with Alsn. He promises scumhunting and big posts. He wants everyone to make good cases about people other than kush. Yet, he doesn't actually follow through. + Show Spoiler + On September 29 2012 17:40 Alsn wrote: Just now caught up and saw this post. Really? I Said I'd be back about 12 hours before lynch, I've been reading the thread for an hour which makes that statement pretty much exactly right. But your own comment on the other hand is from before I even said I'd be waking up and checking the thread. You are not making yourself look any better than when I first called you out for grasping at straws. Will be posting some pretty substantial posts(I suspect, based on what I've read so far) within the next couple of hours. Here, he promises substantial posts. These are the next three posts. + Show Spoiler + On September 29 2012 18:17 Alsn wrote: First, I'd like to start things with stating so far D1 has pretty much lived up to my exact nightmare scenario that I speculated about when arguing with DP yesterday. Everyone is voting kush with only very little discussion about any other topic(mainly, the debears-boson exchange). Looking at the vote count, the last official count says 7, and now corrosion added his vote for a total of 8. With myself that would be 9, the exact number of town in this game. From my point of view, unless kushm4sta, Djodref and Lesrah are the 3 scum, there are scum pushing this lynch. Given that, I'm really starting to dislike this lynch. I agree however that kush has been mostly concerned with defending himself against perceived injustice rather than actually trying to hunt scum, this still does not convince me that he is scum. Lynching scum with an overwhelming majority D1 just seems like way too improbably. Sure, if we had to fight tooth and nail to get 7 votes, I might buy it, but that's not the case. It seems to me there must be scum sheeping onto this lynch. Like I've stated before I can go along with the kush lynch, but I'd rather try and lynch my top scum read at this point and with the current developments, I see a kush lynch more as a last resort than my main scum read. Unfortunately, this argument is only available to people who have yet to vote and are town, as well as to scum since other than myself only scum are aware of my alignment. For everyone else, the "unless a, b and c are scum" argument will include me. My argument is at least enough to convince myself, so I'll be scouring the thread for the next couple of hours to see if my "gut scum reads" so far have any merit and if so push that/those case(s) instead. If it turns out that they are going nowhere, I will vote kush. But I still feel we have enough time to at least have a discussion on the topic of "just wtf is going on here?!". This post is odd. His main points are 1)There are scum voting for kush (duh) 2) He doesn't like the kush lynch and 3) He is going to try to lynch his top scum read and "scour the thread" for others. There is nothing of substance in this post. He's just stating the obvious and promising more scumhunting. + Show Spoiler + On September 29 2012 18:28 Alsn wrote: A quick addendum, I'm aware that scum pushing the lynch does not exonerate kush since they could be bussing him. However, given the assumption that kush is scum and there are active scum among the voters, I just find it more likely that they would try and find another solution than bussing, especially since it's D1. That's my main reason for not being convinced that kush is scum. The next post is nothing better. Nothing substantial. Just speculation on what the scum would do. + Show Spoiler + On September 29 2012 18:29 Alsn wrote: Right, I missed that, thanks for pointing it out. That just confirms it though, from my point of view there are scum pushing for his lynch. For everyone else out there, unless me, Lesrah and kush are the scumteam, there are scum among the voters. Yet again, he's repeating his points. Nothing substantial. His promise of something was not kept. Still no actual scumhunting. Ok. This post just repeats his earlier points. Now comes his change of opinion + Show Spoiler + On September 29 2012 21:15 Alsn wrote: I've been doing some soul searching and I'm starting to agree that it's not worth it to try and push any other cases right now. Mostly because my entire premise was that I was thinking it to be unlikely for kush to be scum. I realise that after trying to put into words why I think that is so, I have nothing other than the fact that I "feel" him to be town, which is a really stupid reason for absolving him. I thought I could back it up by saying he's been pressured to hard, there's no way he's responsible for not scum hunting. But in the end, I can't find a logical reason to forgive him if I exclude my own gut feeling from the equation. I think now that my best option is to hold on to whatever small reads I have(because while I have some suspicions, I don't think they are rock solid) until after the lynch is over. Because at least then, we will have more information. So for now, although my gut is screaming at me, I'll commit to voting for kush, mostly because most of what I said about BosoN has returned somewhat satisfactory answers, I really don't like the way a lot of people got away with not basically posting anything at all(I'm looking at you, Djodref, corrosion, Omniscient, RemedySC). I think that's probably what irks me the most, the thing I was most hoping would not happen, did happen. ##Vote: kushm4sta Ok a "change of heart" changes his views on kush and scumhunting. I can understand changing his view on kush. However, he had been adamant that people push cases on people other than kush all day. Yet, it wasn't worth it anymore. Then, he says in the same post he doesn't like how those 4 got away with not posting? Why didn't he call them out if he wanted to scumhunt so bad? Why is he leaving the job up to others and just calling out people he wants to be looked at? + Show Spoiler + On September 29 2012 21:28 Alsn wrote: By the way, just to clarify about my vote. I realised that my entire vote count argument falls apart if there's no compelling reason to believe kush to be town, and asking myself the following question kinda shocked me: "What has kush done for town?" I couldn't find an answer to that question, no matter how hard I looked. As such, I can't not vote for him. The wording in the last statement is weird. It implies that he was looking for reasons to not vote kush. + Show Spoiler + On September 29 2012 21:31 Alsn wrote: Seriously, I need a break from this as I'm feeling indecisive as shit at the moment while I woke up brimming with confidence that I would find some scum today. I'll be checking in on the thread all the way until lynch, so I'll reply if you need me to, but I don't think I'll be making any monster posts. Here he admits he did not scumhunt. He says he is indecisive. + Show Spoiler + On September 30 2012 04:39 Alsn wrote: I actually find some of your arguments very compelling. I agree that his 180 on Djodref looks scummy, but I don't agree with your original argument that him making that case on both you and Djodref is inherently scummy just because the cases are similar. I however think that your pressuring has yielded fruit. I happen to agree that your initial feud with debears was on pretty shaky grounds, which is why I spoke out against you at that point. It may just have been me misinterpreting your tone/intentions, but nevertheless I feel most of the early-game arguments debears put forward were relatively sound, and you weren't necessarily in the right for attacking them. His responses do seem convoluted though. To be fair, I think his "scum slip"(the one where he all but proclaimed Djod town) is pretty much the exact same type of slip that kush committed. Basically, directly suggesting that he should pm marv could be seen as him knowing djod's alignment. But I think just as with the kush slip, it's definitely not 100%. It could be a typo, he could have just been lazy and not wanted to say marv/hapa, there could be many different reasons. Anything he says himself probably won't sway anyone though. I'm actually surprised there hasn't been more of an outcry about it. So to sum up, I disagree that debears is clearly wrong for saying that your initial case was weak, however, I feel like he has some pretty scummy explanations for some of his actions, particularly wrt Djodref. I think your case has gone from pretty nit picky to a rather strong case. So I think I'll withdraw my FoS on you, your explanation for your behaviour concerning SDM earlier was satisfactory, and I will probably have to go through your case against him at least one more time before I can be sure, but it seems to be pretty solid to me. I would like to see some input from the less active players with regards to the entire debears/boson debate. Because currently I'm having pretty much null reads on all of the following: Omniscient, RemedySC, Corrosion, Djodref(someone else remind me if there's anyone I've missed please). A few of them have posted slightly scummy or slightly town, but either way it's very difficult for me to make up my mind one way or the other right now. If we assume that kush wasn't trolling us with the "I'm red" part, then we have quite some time before we ever need to worry about mylo/lylo, but I'd still like for us to get there without either being forced to lynch 4 null-reading lurkers, or to have them left in the game at that stage. Here is another worthless post. His whole point is "Z-bo's case may have validity". Then he gives us some reads, except they are 4 null reads. No scum hunting. Not any actual contribution. + Show Spoiler + On September 30 2012 19:18 Alsn wrote: Now you're just misunderstanding me, I had a gut scum read on you due to me feeling unjustifiably attacked. I didn't want to say that out loud while I was questioning you at the time. But like I explained when I examined your filter as well as when you replied to me, things became much clearer and thus I re-evaluated you. Ah finally, he actually states a scum read. However, earlier he said he wanted to push a lynch for a top scum read. He didn't do that. A FOS isn't pushing a lynch. He never took a decisive "you're scum" stance day 1. Alsn's whole day 1 was centered on kush being town, and mediating the conflict between me and Z-Bo. Where was the scumhunting? Where was the real contribution that he promised? -----after just reading Alsn's big post---------- @Alsn However, 1) My posting to defend myself day 1 was because I thought (and still do) that most of Z-Boson's case is dumb and confirmation bias (which you agree with me about according to your post. 2) I chose Z-Boson because they way he FOS'd me back was OMGUS to me. Djo is a noob. Z-Boson isn't. Z-Boson would know better to first, calll out a player for no reason early on and overstate that player's views. And two, FOS me with shitty reasoning. 3) My main problem with Z-Boson is that he was looking only at mafia motivations in his post (confirmation bias if he is town, if he is scum, trying to frame someone). Also, his association case about modwarnings was flat out unreasonable and follows WIFOM. Also, he was trying way too hard to lobby his case against me. It seems the only real part of his argument that everyone agrees with is the pm marv post I addressed to Djo, which I have done my best to explain. I don't see his case as strong. Yet, he feels its the mother of all cases, calling it a "shitbomb" on me earlier. How can a townie be so sure of himself besides confirmation bias? That said, Z-Boson has made a case against you which I agree with. He came off more reasonable today with the questions he asked me. For that, I do not have such a strong stance on him at this moment. However, you seem a little bit too obsessed with our argument. Your post is in essence a giant summary of what happened. You state a scumread on me, which is improvement. However, I don't feel your scumhunting is original. Your reasoning for FOS on me is problematic. I believe I have already been called out for posting defensively. Also if "This all leads me to believe Z-BosoN is suffering from massive confirmation bias", as I stated, why wouldn't I defend myself extensively? I have been called out by Z-Bo for inconsistency. Read above this for some reasoning on choosing one over the other. And finally, you don't see my cases pointing out Z-Boson as scummy, yet you agree my cases say reasonable things? "Here he addresses debears final post, a post which like I just pointed out says reasonable things." Just because you think someone's case about someone else being scum isn't correct, if the case is reasonable, that shouldn't make you think that the accuser is scum That reasoning doesn't make sense, based on your own conclusions. In summary, I was suspicious of Alsn 7 hours before you make your case on him, when he was not a point of discussion. My case has valid points about his lack of scumhunting, which your case didn't address. Also, I chose to do the corrosion case first since you specifically asked me a question about corrosion (which incidentally led me to rereading alsn's filter and saying, wow, he's doing scummy things). | ||
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DarthPunk
Australia10854 Posts
Night all. ##Unvote ##Vote: Alsn | ||
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Alsn
Sweden995 Posts
On October 03 2012 00:00 DarthPunk wrote: I think you're vastly overestimating my comments as some kind of criticism of your initial attack on kush instead of what they truly were, cautionary advice to newbies so they wouldn't just mindlessly sheep your case. I think your entire concept of "soft defense is EXACTLY how scum would act!" is WIFOM but regardless we are helping no one with this argument. You think I'm scum, that's fine. Let's leave it at that, I don't want to spend my potential last few hours explaining why I think you're wrong.But stuff like that is exactly how you defend people as scum. You attack the argument and process of the player attacking your buddy. You don't blatantly defend them. I don't get how you don't understand this. | ||
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Alsn
Sweden995 Posts
On October 03 2012 00:04 DarthPunk wrote: If that's true then that's just unfortunate, cause that's not how I remember it.And it was hardly a few lines. we had a very in depth discussion about it. | ||
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thrawn2112
United States6918 Posts
If your vote is not properly formatted it will not be counted. Everyone is required to vote. debears (3) - djodref, Omniscient4983, Alsn (5) - Sonic Death Monkey, debears, Shady Sands, RemedySC, Darthpunk no lynch (0) Not Voting (3) - Lesrah, Alsn, Stutters695, With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch. Currently, nobody is set to be lynched! If you see that your vote is incorrect then pm me. You have about 4 hours 15 minutes left to vote! Deadline is at 20:00 GMT (+00:00) | ||
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Alsn
Sweden995 Posts
On October 03 2012 00:07 debears wrote: Seriously, I'm so sick of this argument. You say I haven't scum hunted, yet almost everyone in the thread agrees that you and me are the scum team and that everyone else is town or the very least null. If no one else can find any evidence of scum among the rest of the players, why should my lack of finding any mean that I'm suddenly not scum hunting? Yes, everyone else could definitely just genuinely believe that we are both scum, but you? Either you are town yourself and should be suspicious that everyone considers us as the main scum team, or you are scum and you know that I'm town. If anything you using that argument could be considered a slip but me suggesting that is probably WIFOM on some level.Hi Shady!! @Alsn To me d1 case on you isn't as strong as the d2 case. You keep saying you don't want to defend yourself, yet you haven't scumhunted I've spent massive amounts of time reading filters, I've asked a few questions where I wanted answers but either they turn up nothing or they don't get answered. It's like you're saying anyone who scum hunts must have come to a conclusion. What if scum are actually just hiding well? Also, your maths is silly. 40% just means that I find you more scummy than random chance(75% chance of town, 25% scum based on the setup) which is what "null" means in my mind. Why you would use 50/50 as a baseline is beyond me. I could see reason to use 10/12 town vs 2/12 scum since kush has flipped, or 9/11 vs 2/11 but the latter includes the supposition that I'm town. I'm leaving my vote on you, and that's final. I'll try and figure out who scum number two is before I get lynched, but I don't think I will be able to. | ||
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Alsn
Sweden995 Posts
##Vote: debears | ||
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Alsn
Sweden995 Posts
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Alsn
Sweden995 Posts
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thrawn2112
United States6918 Posts
If your vote is not properly formatted it will not be counted. Everyone is required to vote. debears (3) - djodref, Omniscient4983, Alsn, Alsn (5) - Sonic Death Monkey, debears, Shady Sands, RemedySC, Darthpunk no lynch (0) Not Voting (3) - Lesrah, Stutters695, Z-Boson With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch. Currently, nobody is set to be lynched! If you see that your vote is incorrect then pm me. You have about 4 hours left to vote! Deadline is at 20:00 GMT (+00:00) | ||
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debears
United States2516 Posts
I'm leaving my vote on you, and that's final. I'll try and figure out who scum number two is before I get lynched, but I don't think I will be able to. I see four guys who have done suspicious things d2 among the lurking crowd who have voted and/or said they would vote for both of us by rehashing the active's players or using dumb reasoning. Yet, you don't see any scummy conclusions besides me? And others have noticed scummy things about the other players. SDM about Djo, Z-Bo about Stutters....you are failing to acknowledge this. Besides, we are close to lynch deadline. Why would they bring up cases out of left field and pursue them at this point when they believe they have 2 scum on their hands? And about math's, how exactly did you settle on 40%. You said last game you didn't like it when people just state "he's __% mafia" yet you did the same. That was the main point on that argument. | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
I'm going to be posting soon. I'll try to convince you to vote for debears one last time  | ||
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