EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XXVII - Page 52
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kushm4sta
United States8878 Posts
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thrawn2112
United States6918 Posts
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kushm4sta
United States8878 Posts
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Dandel Ion
Austria17960 Posts
On September 24 2012 04:08 thrawn2112 wrote: Now that your past reads except for debears are gone, what are your current scum reads? I haven't seen you give any since the lynch. You discuss the possibility that killing might be scummier than kush but your read on him is null. You'll have to wait until tomorrow, honeydew. But fret not, It's pretty unlikely I'll get nightkilled, so I'm in no rush anyways. | ||
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kushm4sta
United States8878 Posts
On September 24 2012 01:06 KillingTime wrote: Btw guys - have been reading these huge walls of text.. Not sure what I think yet about them. On September 24 2012 04:08 KillingTime wrote: Quickly: I suspect atleast one of kush/you/jacob are scum. I don't know which - I haven't had time to read the huge posts made post lynch yet or really give these longer filters justice. so at 1 you claim to be reading the huge walls of text but at 4 you claim you haven't read them yet. Explain this contradiction please. | ||
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thrawn2112
United States6918 Posts
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thrawn2112
United States6918 Posts
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kushm4sta
United States8878 Posts
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kushm4sta
United States8878 Posts
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kushm4sta
United States8878 Posts
granted killings low activity level gives us less to analyze. could he be scum? yeah. am I willing to bet this game on it by lynching him next? no | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
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thrawn2112
United States6918 Posts
I'm reading atreides filter and I want to reopen the case against him During day 1 he makes posts saying how he would be ok with lynching killing, but he never goes in depth into his killing read. He just says how killing is a possible lynch candidate. Then he makes a post after the vote deadline, but before the night post. So at this point if he's town he should not know the alignment of drazak. He says he would have preferred a no-lynch over drazak... does he already know that drazak will flip green? And why a no-lynch over killing, who he had mentioned several times as a lynch candidate? He just doesn't want to lynch lurkers? Atreides why do you think lurker lynching is bad? It allows lurkers to stay in the thread and gives mafia a free nightkill and no risk of any of them being lynched for lurking. He also said that "it's obvious now that the mafia had a strong hand" in the drazak vote. That is a very bold claim to make. Not only is it extremely confident in its own accuracy, but it also suggests that there are potentially a good amount of mafia voting for drazak. Well kush would be the only possibility from my perspective (and kush I would be the only possibility from your perspective if you're town) so I do not see how he could be so sure of that claim if he is town. He does make a case against me. His first accusation is that I hopped on the sharrant bandwagon. I've tunneled sharrant the hardest out of anyone and atreides even admits that I was suspicious of sharrant before I "hopped on" sonic's bandwagon. Another part of his case is that my posting has been "ineffectual" compared to my posting from previous games. I've had huge filters in all my previous games but I can't really remember a previous game where I was extremely accurate with my reads... I don't know where this claim comes from. Atreided how were my votes/reads in previous games so much better than in this game that you think I'm scum? In D2 his comments on the main lynch candidates (stutters remedy dandel) are: On September 23 2012 07:40 Atreides- wrote: ugghhh Stutters is a bad vote, right now I don't feel comfortable lynching him without him posting more. I think that his lurking is him genuinely being busy rather than intentional (due to his lurking last game. he once went 2-3 days without a post). After my last post I would have felt strong about voting thrawn, I think I made a good case against him but it was pretty much swept under the rug. Seems like I'm alone here, and there's no chance of him getting votes. However at the very least I suggest looking into my post and his filter...being active doesn't make you town. Dandel doesn't come off as scummy to me yet, and I posted earlier why I didn't buy the case against rethos. He's open to lynching debears, stutters, remedy, and possibly another lurker. Meaning if he's mafia it's less likely for these others to be mafia as well. Remedy...I think he's a last resort lynch at best. I can't make any reads off him. His activity is in line with what he said his work schedule would be. His posts are too short, he votes without explanation, and his arguments don't make much sense...but I have trouble differentiating this between mafia and confused town. From what I can see his reads are pretty much null on the three main candidates. Read sonic's filter during N1. He spends a huge amount of time going after atreides. I think it's most likely that it was the mafia who nk'd sonic (at least 2 roleblocks are already accounted for so I doubt the specific mafia who did the nk was roleblocked) So what I'm seeing is the person who mafia decided it was important to kil was someone who was strongly going after atreides. FOS Atreides- | ||
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thrawn2112
United States6918 Posts
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Atreides-
United States103 Posts
Seems like everyone has suspected kush at some point or another...after the recent flips I'm leaning on him being town though. The way he switches stances so easily looks genuine to me, I don't think scum would be as likely to do that. @thrawn - hopefully you and jacob will be the topics of discussion for today, so your post is a good diversion to that. A trainwreck of a post at that. On September 22 2012 12:37 thrawn2112 wrote: Atreides the timezone explanation is not the one I was looking for that would set aside my doubts about your coming into the thread right as the deadline happened but it's believable. Also, the fact that marv posted about the no-lynch idea right after you posted your last post before deadline makes me accept that your no-lynch comment probably wasn't some sort of lie that you made up on the spot and had no prior knowledge of. The one thing that I'm stuck on is why you would think a no lynch would be better than lynching killing who you had previously said was an acceptable lynch. But anyways those were the main points of my N1 case against you. Apart from those points you've said some questionable things but quality =/= indication of alignment especially in a newbie game so you're down to a null-read. Wanna see you post more as that improves the quality of the read I can make on you. I don't think atreides should be a lynch candidate. The stuff I just posted is enough for me to not have a scumread on him anymore. He has been lurking but if we have to go for a lurker stutters is a much better choice. That was your post from earlier...and yet you bring up the same arguments AGAIN. Before I was a null-read, and now you FOS me? For the same thing? You address only some of the stuff I made in that post, the stuff that I myself admitted was weak. You didn't respond to my strongest point: + Show Spoiler + Next, what I think is a huge slip, his vote on drazak: Initially he believes that both killer and drazak are scummy lurkers and is willing to vote for either: Sharrant votes drazak as a lurker policy lynch. Sonic votes based on the change in his meta and his bandwagon vote on Sharrant. Kush votes and admits to bandwagoning. Thrawn copycats Sonic's reasoning and votes drazak after kush. Drazak's post: On September 20 2012 07:27 drazak wrote: Ok, I'm home now. When I decided to vote sherrant I honestly was just bandwagoning, I couldn't find anyone with a good read other than the lurkers. For the moment, I'd much rather vote cubu, he doesn't have anything to add and if he does flip mason it confirms our other mason. I was on my phone earlier so I had no way to write a longer more descriptive post. I'm going to go through some filters during night and see if I can come up with some suspicions to start D2 with, presuming I make it through the night. Thrawn's post: On September 20 2012 07:30 thrawn2112 wrote: I would go with drazak. Previously my lurker lynch back up was killing but drazak made that retarted vote. I've also had earlier supicions of him maily because of his first post, where he goes out of his way to defend accusations against him that haven't even happend yet. So killing/drazak but I say drazak. vote count? Once the focus is on drazak, thrawn changes his opinion and believes drazak is the stronger vote. Now, what really stands out to me is this: drazak literally admitted to bandwagoning. In thrawn's recent post in the previous page, he says this: + Show Spoiler + On September 22 2012 13:53 thrawn2112 wrote: I've been looking at the final vote count. I think it's very very safe to assume that at least 1 mafia voted for drazak. The people who voted for drazak are: Sharrant, Sonic Death Monkey, kushm4sta, thrawn2112, Stutters695. So then I removed sharrant, sonic, and myself, which leaves kush and stutters. Out of those two I think it's more likely stutters is scum. And when I look at their votes, kush made that retarded "ok looks like drazzak is the bandwagon then" vote. Originally it looked suspicious but consider this... why the fuck would a mafia player bandwagon onto a townie lynch and then use such a terrible phrase? Especially to even include the word bandwagon? That imo, is a colossal error that I don't think anyone would be capable of. (well maybe yourharry would find some way to rationalize it) So, that leaves stutters who already looks suspicious, both for lurking, and because of how he stops lurking to pop in the thread once someone calls him out. So if all the follwoing is true, Stutters has to be scum 1: At least 1 mafia voted for drazak 2: There are no holes we've overlooked in sharrant's mason claim 3: My reasoning about kush's vote is extremely likely to be correct (4: and an additional one for people other than myself would be that thrawn is town) For me of course 4 is 100 true. 2 is so close to 100 percent true it may as well be 100 percent. Then I think 3 is the next most likely and 1 is probably the part of the theory I have the most hesitations about. However I think 1 and 3 are solid enough. So in other words I think stutters is a pretty damn good lynch option. Not only for all the reasons just mentioned but also because he's a huge lurker. So kush isn't suspicious because mafia would never admit to bandwagon posting, but drazak was? This is a very big contradiction. That's two times you've been completely contradictory. Wanted to get this out there first, going to respond to some other things in the meantime. | ||
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Sharrant
Canada543 Posts
At this point the players we have left are as follows: Kush Sharrant Dandel Atreides Debears Sharky Thrawn Jacob KillingTime A third of those people are scum, and up to 6 of them are townies. These numbers might be off slightly if, say, SK replaces a mafia member. Then we would be at 6-2-1 but I really don't know. It seems doubtful that there's an SK in the game at this point, but in our situation it could be useful. Most likely a townie will die tonight, leaving us at 5 v 3. This is still a strong position for us. There are a bunch of good things that can happen in this night phase though. We know there is still a role blocker, hopefully a town player. We could come out of night phase at 6 v 3 even. Their best strategy is to take out a confirmed town, that way they spread more confusion. Now it's very unlikely that there's an SK in this game, but they need to know their stakes too. The less town there are, the less people you have to hide in amongst. Your best bet (if you exist) is to kill a mafia member either tonight or tomorrow night. At this point if SK has good suspicions he's almost an ally, we have the same short term goal. That's the end of me mentioning SK until we actually see evidence of one, but at this point I'm almost hoping they're in the game. Okay, onto the meat and potatoes. At this point, I'm fairly certain of Kush being town. When he wanted the bandwagon switched onto STutters, I thought he had just thrown the game for the mafia, but with Stutters and Remedy both flipping town, that pretty much clears him in my books. It is entirely possible for that to just be a calculated risk, as scum he would know both are town, but I don't see him playing it that way. Thrawn is someone I'm waffling about now. He makes the same case for Kush that I do though, which is a big plus at this point. He also took the time to confirm at least two time stamps, which does also add townie points. Both of those things a mafia could do just as easily, but there's less motivation. He did push for a Cubu lynch, based on a solid premise but faulty logic. So that's neither here no there. There's a really big question that I don't know if I can ask though, that's been killing me. You already posted in quotes what your roleblock PM said, before Marvel said that was against the rules. I just want to know, was there a period at the end of the sentence or not? Marvel, if he's not allowed to answer that, please say right away. Sorry if that question is against the rules. Moving on from Thrawn. Debears made a very good point against Atreides "How do you know how many mafia there are?" It's entirely possible we have a 6-3 set up, a 5-2-1 set up, or even just a 7-2 set up. It seems likely that there are only 3 (in fact that's the assumption I've been going off of) but to be able to say without a doubt there are 3 is not possible for me. He's made some silly posts at odd times, which has bumped him up to be a good suspect in my eyes. He is also a possessor of that same strange trait that causes him to lurk, be suspicious, but not to ever have any real pressure put on him. An odd thing to note, is that while there have been a number of clear 2 way assosciative cases possible, I have yet to see a three way case, which does make it seem there may not be a third mafia member. Dandel is a big mystery right now. Rethos was scummy as all hell the way he left, but most of the things I find scummy about Dandel are things that also have a town motivation. I see a series of things he brings up in his post, that is either a brilliantly laid scum plan, or just plain skepticism from a townie. I also don't particularly like his post about holding off on his reads until tomorrow. He is right though, as town or mafia it would be plenty unlikely that he dies. Killing: He says some scummy things, never seems to quite get everyone's attention, and then slinks back away until someone brings him up again. The thread is 52 pages long and he has not quite filled 2 pages worth of posts. I'd go after him as a lurker if we still had that luxury. I'm not convinced he's scum, but there aren't many options left at this point. Jacob: Kush mentioned that he's posting mroe all of a sudden, and how that may be a possible self defence mechanism, that seems like a bit of a stretch to me. I've thought he was town before, and his posts seem good, but they only really cover 3 people. At this point I don't think Killing is a good call. He's scummy, he's lurky, but apparently that was his meta last game, and we need to be 100% sure the person we're lynching is mafia, otherwise that most likely ends the game right there. Unless something unexpected happens, I believe we could no lynch tomorrow and end up 4 v 3 if we don't have a good case, it would at least give us another 72 hours to figure out who is the scum. This is a very strong position supposing that Sharky and I survive up to that point. If we make it there, we have a strong chance of finding scum just by a random vote. That makes me suspect that either Sharky or I will die tonight, though I don't really see a reason for them killing Sharky at this point. I should have one more post before the deadline in me. | ||
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thrawn2112
United States6918 Posts
On September 24 2012 06:53 Atreides- wrote: I think that killer's posts have improved a bit since day 1. Looking at his filter from the previous game, he didn't post much there either. Lynching him at this point would be a joke when we can make good reads on other players. If he's town, that makes him a good topic of discussion for scum. Hell, just look at how the last two lurker lynches turned out. Seems like everyone has suspected kush at some point or another...after the recent flips I'm leaning on him being town though. The way he switches stances so easily looks genuine to me, I don't think scum would be as likely to do that. @thrawn - hopefully you and jacob will be the topics of discussion for today, so your post is a good diversion to that. A trainwreck of a post at that. That was your post from earlier...and yet you bring up the same arguments AGAIN. Before I was a null-read, and now you FOS me? For the same thing? I was reading sonic's filter and the arguments he made against you looked good, and then he got nk'd, so I decided it was time to look at your filter again. And as for me lowering my suspicion because of the 1 minute delay between your last post and the no-lynch blue post, that doesn't point to town or scum. You could have just then figured out that no-lynch was a possibility if you are town or scum. My new case is about the context of those posts. You post right after deadline but before drazak flipped green, saying how you didn't approve of the drazak lynch. Do you see how that looks scummy? Then you make a very strong suggestion that there could be a large presence of mafia among the drazak vote, and since you've said that the only thing that has happened are people who voted for drazak flipping green/blue, or becoming confirmed masons. On September 24 2012 06:53 Atreides- wrote:You address only some of the stuff I made in that post, the stuff that I myself admitted was weak. You didn't respond to my strongest point: + Show Spoiler + Next, what I think is a huge slip, his vote on drazak: Initially he believes that both killer and drazak are scummy lurkers and is willing to vote for either: Sharrant votes drazak as a lurker policy lynch. Sonic votes based on the change in his meta and his bandwagon vote on Sharrant. Kush votes and admits to bandwagoning. Thrawn copycats Sonic's reasoning and votes drazak after kush. Drazak's post: On September 20 2012 07:27 drazak wrote: Ok, I'm home now. When I decided to vote sherrant I honestly was just bandwagoning, I couldn't find anyone with a good read other than the lurkers. For the moment, I'd much rather vote cubu, he doesn't have anything to add and if he does flip mason it confirms our other mason. I was on my phone earlier so I had no way to write a longer more descriptive post. I'm going to go through some filters during night and see if I can come up with some suspicions to start D2 with, presuming I make it through the night. Thrawn's post: On September 20 2012 07:30 thrawn2112 wrote: I would go with drazak. Previously my lurker lynch back up was killing but drazak made that retarted vote. I've also had earlier supicions of him maily because of his first post, where he goes out of his way to defend accusations against him that haven't even happend yet. So killing/drazak but I say drazak. vote count? Once the focus is on drazak, thrawn changes his opinion and believes drazak is the stronger vote. Now, what really stands out to me is this: drazak literally admitted to bandwagoning. In thrawn's recent post in the previous page, he says this: + Show Spoiler + On September 22 2012 13:53 thrawn2112 wrote: I've been looking at the final vote count. I think it's very very safe to assume that at least 1 mafia voted for drazak. The people who voted for drazak are: Sharrant, Sonic Death Monkey, kushm4sta, thrawn2112, Stutters695. So then I removed sharrant, sonic, and myself, which leaves kush and stutters. Out of those two I think it's more likely stutters is scum. And when I look at their votes, kush made that retarded "ok looks like drazzak is the bandwagon then" vote. Originally it looked suspicious but consider this... why the fuck would a mafia player bandwagon onto a townie lynch and then use such a terrible phrase? Especially to even include the word bandwagon? That imo, is a colossal error that I don't think anyone would be capable of. (well maybe yourharry would find some way to rationalize it) So, that leaves stutters who already looks suspicious, both for lurking, and because of how he stops lurking to pop in the thread once someone calls him out. So if all the follwoing is true, Stutters has to be scum 1: At least 1 mafia voted for drazak 2: There are no holes we've overlooked in sharrant's mason claim 3: My reasoning about kush's vote is extremely likely to be correct (4: and an additional one for people other than myself would be that thrawn is town) For me of course 4 is 100 true. 2 is so close to 100 percent true it may as well be 100 percent. Then I think 3 is the next most likely and 1 is probably the part of the theory I have the most hesitations about. However I think 1 and 3 are solid enough. So in other words I think stutters is a pretty damn good lynch option. Not only for all the reasons just mentioned but also because he's a huge lurker. So kush isn't suspicious because mafia would never admit to bandwagon posting, but drazak was? This is a very big contradiction. That's two times you've been completely contradictory. Wanted to get this out there first, going to respond to some other things in the meantime. I said my vote for drazak was mostly because of that vote. Yes, kush made a shitty vote, but there's a difference between them. Drazak's vote was just s simple vote. No explanation for the vote or anything. While kush's vote did look strange, it was so strange thatI didn't believe a mafia would make it. I don't think a mafia would come out and state: "hey guys I'm joining the most popular bandwagon." | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On September 24 2012 07:18 Sharrant wrote: Marvel, if he's not allowed to answer that, please say right away. Sorry if that question is against the rules. It is against the rules. No sharing/comparing exact PM contents as confirmation. | ||
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thrawn2112
United States6918 Posts
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Sharrant
Canada543 Posts
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Sharrant
Canada543 Posts
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