EPTDid you notice how everyone followed Jacob with no question after the SDM lynch? That could have been SDM after your lynch. In that case it would almost certainly have been GG.
Newbie Mini Mafia XXVI - Page 42
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DarthPunk
Australia10847 Posts
Did you notice how everyone followed Jacob with no question after the SDM lynch? That could have been SDM after your lynch. In that case it would almost certainly have been GG. | ||
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Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 13 2012 18:49 JacobStrangelove wrote: Haha yeah I noticed  probably going to get night killed day two whenever I roll town now... let me mislead everyone then kill me.It wasn't so much that you would be scum for saying that but it just made me look at you. Honestly you played a near perfect game. Not so much that you questioned me on imcasey but more that because of your questioning I realised he was scum. With him being scum and the way killing reacted making him seem so town like. I was able to put killing as more town than you and with casey being mafia and stutters vig I only saw you left. (at this point I had xatalos almost confirmed scum due to the way the kville lynch went{and other things}) Also all the little things made sense. (you not wanting a vig reveal etc..{althought he vig thing seemed to confuse everybody for a while}) I am mostly just lucky my intuition kicked in. Nothing major just when I looked at filters with this mafia team in my head nothing felt wrong. I also found it amusing when kush got upset at xatalos for Nk-ing me. Although that said I am not sure if I will play mafia for a while. Getting near the end of the semseter for me. Might play in the holidays. I still don't get how you confirmed imcasey scum. Or how the Kville lynch made Xatalos confirmed scum. Or how them being confirmed scum made ME the best lynch. Don't get me wrong, it was still a very nice play. Sometimes the brain can process lots of small stuff you can't put to words (I guess that's intuition). You relied on yours and it paid off. The way I acted wrt the vig reveal was exactly how I would've reacted as town. My problem was since I didn't have enough time to explain exactly what I meant. I don't think the vig should reveal unless he's at the risk of getting lynched (or like Stutters, doesn't follow the thread closely enough to be able to react in time). Having the vig wait for the reveal seems better from a town perspective. It's possible that analysis is wrong though, there are both benefits and drawbacks of an early reveal. At least I didn't have scummy intentions when discussing it and I probably would've been better off just not discussing it :p | ||
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Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 13 2012 18:50 DarthPunk wrote: That's the problem though. When it came down to it There were only 4 townies in the game. and you did not make the top four whichever way you looked at it. I recommend you all to read this if you have not already. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=362042 It was a bastardised version of this scum hunting strategy that got you. I think going for the perfect victory caught up with you. And you were also over confident by the end judging by the Scum QT. If I were you I would have bussed one of your own HARD. Then you would have been in the position Jacob was in and could have lynched anyone of your choosing. I'm not sure. There was a lot of momentum behind the Killing wagon. Not only Jacob but also Kush and Stutters were behind it. That's the entire town team. Remember Jacob's reads going into d3 was: imcasey: certain town Me: almost certain town Xatalos: leaning town Killing: almost certain scum My d3 plan was going hard at Xatalos and Killing. Trying to free Killing from suspicion seemed like a really bad move because given the circumstances he's getting lynched on d3 >75% of the time and we win (if anyone claims anything else you need to put away your ex-post goggles, Jacob's save was a clear outlier). Depending on how well Xatalos defended himself d3 I was open for pushing his wagon instead though. Basically just like I would've played as town. Negative elimination had me worried, like I hinted at in the beginning of d3 (I thought it would've been Xatalos getting lynched, not myself). I couldn't possibly prepare for this scenario on n2 though, because I didn't think they had a vig. Their vig meant that both Stutters and drazak (two of the players most suspected for being scum) became cofirmed townies and instead of a scenario where the town needs to find 3 scum out of 8 players they only needed to find 3 out of 6. I was really out of the discussion for being negative elimination eliminated before those events. At d3 the variables of the game completely changed and I didn't have the time to be around and influence it. So if you're telling me I should've planned bussing a scum at n2 already, I disagree. If you're telling me I should've bussed Xatalos d3 after Stutters claims vig, yeah I agree, but I wasn't around at that time. | ||
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Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 13 2012 19:57 DarthPunk wrote: If Casey and Sonic had Bussed you hard. Like at the start of the day, before all the shit with jacob happened. I think you would have won the game. Imagine Casey and Sonic two players who could have both pushed for a lynch on killing with the added benefit of being right. Did you notice how everyone followed Jacob with no question after the SDM lynch? That could have been SDM after your lynch. In that case it would almost certainly have been GG. Oh, I didn't see this post. The entire town team was behind lynching Killing and we're supposed to start the day off by lynching Xatalos hard? What would be the rationale behind that? | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
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Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 13 2012 21:12 marvellosity wrote: lol, was it a vigi who hit drazak? Yeah. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
edit: read the few posts starting from here. drazak all but claimed medic in-thread ^_^ further edit: On September 05 2012 10:40 drazak wrote: I'm saying from a medic's point of view, I wasn't sure about him myself. Obviously he WAS town, but he had a lot of town power which isn't always a good thing. That one was the cutest. Hapa and I had big smiles talking about the passage sitting on IRC. | ||
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DarthPunk
Australia10847 Posts
On September 13 2012 21:09 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: Oh, I didn't see this post. The entire town team was behind lynching Killing and we're supposed to start the day off by lynching Xatalos hard? What would be the rationale behind that? It is safer. I think you would have won for sure that way. The way you played it out relied on the fact that the three of you looked more townie than the four real town. From reading the thread I am not sure taht was a safe assumption to make. If you had bussed Xatalos day 3. You would have a lot of town cred with which to get 1 mislynch during the next two days. If you don't understand the rational behind it. I am sorry. but it is obvious to me. If you are going to bus for town cred. It is worth much less if the suspicion is already on you. If you did it whilst the suspicion was on killing it actually has value. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
On September 13 2012 19:25 Xatalos wrote: In hindsight, I agree. We should have bussed one of us hard and taken the easy win. However, I (we) got a bit overconfident and wanted to go for a flawless victory (I was also hesitant because our cover was starting to crack slowly but surely... would a bus be enough for the win?). One of the things I learnt playing mafia is that it can REALLY quickly and suddenly go terribly, terribly wrong. All it takes is a sudden change of heart from an influential townie and everything starts falling apart. Always (mostly  ) go for the best percentage play, not the flawless victory.Relatedly, it goes to show the massive importance of at least one scum having significant town and thread presence. When it all started going tits up with Jacob wanting Sonic dead, scum could do nothing because they didn't have any sway to do so. | ||
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DarthPunk
Australia10847 Posts
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Xatalos
Finland9673 Posts
On September 13 2012 21:17 marvellosity wrote: let me find something for you guys edit: read the few posts starting from here. drazak all but claimed medic in-thread ^_^ further edit: That one was the cutest. Hapa and I had big smiles talking about the passage sitting on IRC. If you look at the MafiaQT, I also noticed that, but I had a hard time believing he actually Medic-slipped so obviously Maybe we should have killed him and prevented Stutters from becoming confirmed town, haha! | ||
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DarthPunk
Australia10847 Posts
On September 13 2012 21:23 marvellosity wrote: One of the things I learnt playing mafia is that it can REALLY quickly and suddenly go terribly, terribly wrong. All it takes is a sudden change of heart from an influential townie and everything starts falling apart. Always (mostly ) go for the best percentage play, not the flawless victory.Relatedly, it goes to show the massive importance of at least one scum having significant town and thread presence. When it all started going tits up with Jacob wanting Sonic dead, scum could do nothing because they didn't have any sway to do so. Yeah this is what I was trying to say. Marv just said it way better. | ||
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KillingTime
France101 Posts
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Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 13 2012 21:17 marvellosity wrote: let me find something for you guys edit: read the few posts starting from here. drazak all but claimed medic in-thread ^_^ further edit: That one was the cutest. Hapa and I had big smiles talking about the passage sitting on IRC. Yeah, we was a little bit late on the ball on that one. Close to EOD2, Xatalos in Maffia QT: Something caught my eye. Maybe drazak is a Medic? He says this: drazak United States. September 05 2012 10:38. Posts 106 PM Profile Report Quote # Not to demean his memory, but he could have been good mafia convincing us he was town and trying to lead us into bad lynches. drazak United States. September 05 2012 10:40. Posts 106 PM Profile Report Quote # I'm saying from a medic's point of view, I wasn't sure about him myself. Obviously he WAS town, but he had a lot of town power which isn't always a good thing. My response: Btw, I had no idea what drazak was talking about when he made that post. I've heard blue roles are the most likely to talk about blue roles, so you might be onto something. We'll see in a few minutes :/ OMG sick read :D | ||
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Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 13 2012 21:23 DarthPunk wrote: It is safer. I think you would have won for sure that way. The way you played it out relied on the fact that the three of you looked more townie than the four real town. From reading the thread I am not sure taht was a safe assumption to make. If you had bussed Xatalos day 3. You would have a lot of town cred with which to get 1 mislynch during the next two days. If you don't understand the rational behind it. I am sorry. but it is obvious to me. If you are going to bus for town cred. It is worth much less if the suspicion is already on you. If you did it whilst the suspicion was on killing it actually has value. Of course I understand the rationale, it's basic town cred hunting. What I meant is it doesn't seem rational to go after Xatalos at the start of d3 as town. If it's not something rational to do as town, it's fishy to do as scum. He had basically been afk for five days and now I'm supposed to go lynch him hard before he's had the chance to post anything? Even though there's really no new information to sway my opinion in that direction? As town I would've reacted to what he said and as scum I act like I would've acted as town. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
also the strange love affair between Jacob and kush was a pleasure to read. Sadly I didn't follow the game very closely, but their interactions from what I saw were very enjoyable. Two guys super-invested in the game and talking about stuff to each other. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
On September 13 2012 21:41 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: Of course I understand the rationale, it's basic town cred hunting. What I meant is it doesn't seem rational to go after Xatalos at the start of d3 as town. If it's not something rational to do as town, it's fishy to do as scum. He had basically been afk for five days and now I'm supposed to go lynch him hard before he's had the chance to post anything? Even though there's really no new information to sway my opinion in that direction? As town I would've reacted to what he said and as scum I act like I would've acted as town. townies re-read the thread and come up with new scumreads all the time | ||
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Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 13 2012 21:25 DarthPunk wrote: And If you feel like you need something to justify a Xatalos lynch in order to satisfy your town personas, then you could easily manufacture it in the QT. Yeah, I agree that would've been a good idea. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
If you look at the situation on D3 from Jacob's point of view... Himself Kush Stutters KillingTime iamcasey SDM Xatalos At that point in the game, every player in the game was treating stutters and kush as almost confirmed townies. Jacob was also very strongly town to other townies. The only mislynch mafia could have pushed KillingTime. If Plan A didn't work, Plan B" was to roll over and die. Why did this happen? Mafia's Night 2 Kill of Kreb! Mafia really had no business trying to blue-snipe on Day 2, because it didn't fit together with their Day 1 play. For some reason, Mafia established the "townieness" of kush very early on. Not shooting him is a huge liability, because he is one less person for the town to mislynch in later days. Not shooting him created a D3 where town basically had a 75% to catch scum. As a side note, I really hate bluesniping in newbie games in general. You should only blue-snipe if you see an obvious bread-crumb, a blue-claim, or a very obvious tell (i.e. Drazak's early N1 posts). Otherwise, getting rid of obvious townies, regardless of skill, is a great idea to set up for the endgame. Even without the iamcasey modkill and the vigi-shot on Drazak, I still don't think scum were set up well for the later days. The scumteam got complacent, and were too happy with their early-game play to continue and push their advantage. This game gets harder and harder for mafia as the game goes on, and it requires proactive play throughout. Oh, and Drazak's medic claim was awesome. Kinda surprised no one picked up on the significance TBH =P | ||
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