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Newbie Mini Mafia XXVI - Page 15

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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kushm4sta
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
United States8878 Posts
September 03 2012 17:01 GMT
#281
@thrawn
Let me just say that was a very nice catch on kville getting replaced. Very sharp. We certainly shouldn't vote for him now. Drazak and Cuba should change their votes. I think the replacement issue makes him just a null read.

So the drazak didn't work out for you? Now you aim your sights at Stutters. Stutters over Cuba makes ZERO sense to me.
He is not the ideal townie, but if you compare his filter to Cuba's, the difference is night and day. As town Stutters appears to be much more helpful, writing in depth and coherently. You are right he has offered no scum read yet. However he still has 8 hours and as he explained he is not a very active poster. On the other hand look at cuba's "scum read." It's more like a defense: you can't lynch him for lurking because kville is lurking way harder. And then he also accuses drazak...hmm that's interesting..but I'll get to that next post.

On September 03 2012 14:01 Cubu wrote:
I'm kind of suspicious of drazak. He says his gonna post in a few hours but its been alot of hours since then and he hasn't posted. And why talk about the no-lynch? You can't no-lynch. There is nothing to discuss about it. And isn't it strange that of all the days, it's the first day of mafia that his dad happens to be moving out. Seems like a false excuse to me.


Anyway his scumread of drazak is based on calling him out for lurker policy fluff, which is the same reason I suspected cuba in the first place. So his "scrumread," which apparently proves his innocence in your mind, is hypocritical, unfocused, and lacking of content.

When you first accused drazak right after I accused cuba, you said
On September 03 2012 08:44 thrawn2112 wrote:
In regards to your vote... I think cubu is a good pick, but I'm also considering drazak for the same reasons I'm assuming you selected cubu.

You weren't even mentioning stutters as a candidate back then, and nothing regarding him has changed. You said cuba was a good pick, so what happened??
OMGUS.net, kush sex blogs every friday night
Kreb
Profile Joined September 2010
4834 Posts
September 03 2012 17:04 GMT
#282
On September 03 2012 23:57 KillingTime wrote:
On a percentage basis I think it is more likely that cuba or weetee or stutters (who never asked those "questions" he was promising) or drazak are scum who have realised their mistake and are trying to cover for it - rather than kville who is being such a blatant lurk.

Good catch, forgot about that.

Any comments on this, Stutters?
Sonic Death Monkey
Profile Joined July 2011
Sweden991 Posts
September 03 2012 17:12 GMT
#283
On September 04 2012 00:54 thrawn2112 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 03 2012 23:57 KillingTime wrote:
I kind of feel that a kville lynch would be similar to a kush lynch. We seem to agree that for a mafia to go out and make the d1 posts that kush did would be very gambley/spaz mafia play. Well, the same thing surely applies to Kville - I don't like the fact he is lurking like a submarine - but at this point, given how every active player has repeatedly stressed that they want town to be posting - the total refusal of kville to do that kind of makes me think there are better lynch targets (atleast for d1, d2 is a different story and kville is certainly going to need a good explanation and good d2 play if he does survive).


I have similar feelings about a kville lynch:

Show nested quote +
On September 03 2012 20:54 thrawn2112 wrote:Actually the reason why I'm hesitant to consider voting kville is because I find it hard to believe that scum would only post once. He is an acceptable lynch candidate simply because we won't have lost anything at all worth keeping, but I don't have a scum read on him so that's why he's not my first vote.


Also according to the replacement thread the host has asked for a replacement for this game, so I think that kville is just a town player who doesn't care and wants out.

I'm going to unvote drazak because I'd rather lynch someone more lurky, and because he's done a better job at contributing than he did at the start of the game. Here are my thoughts on the proposed lurker lynch candidates:

Cubu: Has expressed suspicion of drazak, and said he wants to lynch kville. I consider his vote for kville a bad idea, but he has at least given scumreads. Earlier someone said that Cubu's posting looks like that of a spazzy townie, which I agree with.

WeeTee/Stutters: I'm putting these two together because they are the lurkiest except for kville. WeeTee hasn't offered any scum reads at all, nor has he questioned anyone on anything. Stutters' only contribution towards scumhunting was his comment on kville's strange behavior. Stutters's scumhunting efforts are close enough to none I might as well call it none. Between the two of them I think WeeTee has provided greater insight into his thoughts. Stutters hasn't even obliged us with his town reads, all he's done is talk about policy and his thoughts on lists.

I want to lynch WeeTee or Stutters. Other than kville (who I'm not going to vote for because of the earlier reasons I gave) they are the lurkiest players. I can see WeeTee being town because his town meta during XXV was exactly how he's playing now, so I'm going to vote for stutters because of my WeeTee meta read and because stutters has shared less thoughts/reads out of the two.


Any reason you think that'd make him townie? At this point I think it's evident he's afk because town or maffia, he would've tried to defend himself by now. To me it pretty much makes him rand(), which still makes him a bad lynch because we want >rand() lynches and whether town or maffia lynching him gives us very little info. Not lynching him in hopes of him getting a sub seems like the obvious move.

I'm going to have to have to reread the last couple of pages but as of right now, I like my Stutter vote better than the alternatives.
thrawn2112
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6918 Posts
September 03 2012 17:38 GMT
#284
On September 04 2012 02:01 kushm4sta wrote:
@thrawn
Let me just say that was a very nice catch on kville getting replaced. Very sharp. We certainly shouldn't vote for him now. Drazak and Cuba should change their votes. I think the replacement issue makes him just a null read.

So the drazak didn't work out for you? Now you aim your sights at Stutters. Stutters over Cuba makes ZERO sense to me.


Reason for dropping my drazak vote:

On September 04 2012 00:54 thrawn2112 wrote:I'm going to unvote drazak because I'd rather lynch someone more lurky, and because he's done a better job at contributing than he did at the start of the game.


On September 04 2012 02:01 kushm4sta wrote:He is not the ideal townie, but if you compare his filter to Cuba's, the difference is night and day. As town Stutters appears to be much more helpful, writing in depth and coherently. You are right he has offered no scum read yet. However he still has 8 hours and as he explained he is not a very active poster. On the other hand look at cuba's "scum read." It's more like a defense: you can't lynch him for lurking because kville is lurking way harder. And then he also accuses drazak...hmm that's interesting..but I'll get to that next post.

Show nested quote +
On September 03 2012 14:01 Cubu wrote:
I'm kind of suspicious of drazak. He says his gonna post in a few hours but its been alot of hours since then and he hasn't posted. And why talk about the no-lynch? You can't no-lynch. There is nothing to discuss about it. And isn't it strange that of all the days, it's the first day of mafia that his dad happens to be moving out. Seems like a false excuse to me.


Anyway his scumread of drazak is based on calling him out for lurker policy fluff, which is the same reason I suspected cuba in the first place. So his "scrumread," which apparently proves his innocence in your mind, is hypocritical, unfocused, and lacking of content.

When you first accused drazak right after I accused cuba, you said
Show nested quote +
On September 03 2012 08:44 thrawn2112 wrote:
In regards to your vote... I think cubu is a good pick, but I'm also considering drazak for the same reasons I'm assuming you selected cubu.

You weren't even mentioning stutters as a candidate back then, and nothing regarding him has changed. You said cuba was a good pick, so what happened??


Neither Cubu or Stutters have contributed much towards scumhunting and they're both lurky. You ask why Stutters over Cubu? Cubu more fits the profile of a townie who doesn't know what he's doing, similar to how WeeTee played in XXV. You point out that Stutter's posts are more thought out/coherent/relevant than Cubu's, which is actually part of the reason why I think stutters is a better choice. You've got two people who have been lurking and not scumhunting much/at all. Yet one of them (Stutters) seems to have a better idea of how the game is played than the other. That's why I think Cubu could just be bad town whereas stutters is scum. In regards to my thinking Cubu was a good pick, yes I agreed with you at that time. But since you made that vote he has posted more so I had to give him a little town-cred for that. Also at the time of your Cubu vote Stutters had posted way more recently than Cubu had. But look at my filter, I've paid fair attention to both cubu and stutters as well as the other lurkers. Example here.

On September 04 2012 02:12 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
Any reason you think that'd make him townie? At this point I think it's evident he's afk because town or maffia, he would've tried to defend himself by now. To me it pretty much makes him rand(), which still makes him a bad lynch because we want >rand() lynches and whether town or maffia lynching him gives us very little info. Not lynching him in hopes of him getting a sub seems like the obvious move.


Yeah, here:

On September 03 2012 20:54 thrawn2112 wrote:Actually the reason why I'm hesitant to consider voting kville is because I find it hard to believe that scum would only post once. He is an acceptable lynch candidate simply because we won't have lost anything at all worth keeping, but I don't have a scum read on him so that's why he's not my first vote.

"People think they know all these things about other people, and if you ask them why they think they know that, it'd be hard for them to be convincing." ES
thrawn2112
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6918 Posts
September 03 2012 17:44 GMT
#285
On September 04 2012 02:12 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:At this point I think it's evident he's afk because town or maffia, he would've tried to defend himself by now.


Oh and I wouldn't say he's afk, he's been playing in another mafia game all this time. It could be some elaborate ruse as scum, but I think it's more likely he doesn't want to play in this game.
"People think they know all these things about other people, and if you ask them why they think they know that, it'd be hard for them to be convincing." ES
Sonic Death Monkey
Profile Joined July 2011
Sweden991 Posts
September 03 2012 17:53 GMT
#286
On September 04 2012 02:44 thrawn2112 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 04 2012 02:12 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:At this point I think it's evident he's afk because town or maffia, he would've tried to defend himself by now.


Oh and I wouldn't say he's afk, he's been playing in another mafia game all this time. It could be some elaborate ruse as scum, but I think it's more likely he doesn't want to play in this game.


I don't believe it's an elaborate ruse for one second. But if he wants out, it seems like he's screwing over his sub whether he's town or maffia. For now it's a non-issue though, at least as long as people can agree not to lynch him.
kushm4sta
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
United States8878 Posts
September 03 2012 18:01 GMT
#287
Why town should all vote for cuba

Worst case scenario:he flips green
No big deal, we lynched the worst townie (barring WeeTee whose behavior fits his meta like a glove, and kville who is being replaced). From his posts it's clear he has no intention of contributing more than he is already, which is nothing. Plus that would give thrawn some serious town points in my book, since he refuses to vote for him. Thrawn is good for town atmosphere and very active. It would be quite useful to our scumhunt if we could trust thrawn.

Best case scenario: he is mafia
If Cuba is mafia, I think there is a very high chance that thrawn is also mafia. In which case we will know 2 mafia first day and basically win the game.
People who are specifically against lynching cuba: cuba, thrawn.
People who have voted for or accused drazak: cuba, thrawn.
Twice now thrawn has attempted to redirect the lynch vote away from cuba onto somebody else.
Thrawn says he won't vote for cuba because unlike stutters, cuba has participated in the scumhunt. By scumhunt you mean his failed attempt to bandwagon drazak with you?

We need three more votes on cuba.
OMGUS.net, kush sex blogs every friday night
Sonic Death Monkey
Profile Joined July 2011
Sweden991 Posts
September 03 2012 18:13 GMT
#288
On September 04 2012 02:01 kushm4sta wrote:
@thrawn
Let me just say that was a very nice catch on kville getting replaced. Very sharp. We certainly shouldn't vote for him now. Drazak and Cuba should change their votes. I think the replacement issue makes him just a null read.

So the drazak didn't work out for you? Now you aim your sights at Stutters. Stutters over Cuba makes ZERO sense to me.
He is not the ideal townie, but if you compare his filter to Cuba's, the difference is night and day. As town Stutters appears to be much more helpful, writing in depth and coherently.
You are right he has offered no scum read yet. However he still has 8 hours and as he explained he is not a very active poster. On the other hand look at cuba's "scum read." It's more like a defense: you can't lynch him for lurking because kville is lurking way harder. And then he also accuses drazak...hmm that's interesting..but I'll get to that next post.

Show nested quote +
On September 03 2012 14:01 Cubu wrote:
I'm kind of suspicious of drazak. He says his gonna post in a few hours but its been alot of hours since then and he hasn't posted. And why talk about the no-lynch? You can't no-lynch. There is nothing to discuss about it. And isn't it strange that of all the days, it's the first day of mafia that his dad happens to be moving out. Seems like a false excuse to me.


Anyway his scumread of drazak is based on calling him out for lurker policy fluff, which is the same reason I suspected cuba in the first place. So his "scrumread," which apparently proves his innocence in your mind, is hypocritical, unfocused, and lacking of content.

When you first accused drazak right after I accused cuba, you said
Show nested quote +
On September 03 2012 08:44 thrawn2112 wrote:
In regards to your vote... I think cubu is a good pick, but I'm also considering drazak for the same reasons I'm assuming you selected cubu.

You weren't even mentioning stutters as a candidate back then, and nothing regarding him has changed. You said cuba was a good pick, so what happened??


Stutter's posts are still kind of pseudo-helpful. That's the kind of post I'd expect from scum, Cubu's ramblings are not. I feel like Stutter has had the chance to contribute with something better by now. I'm quoting my last post of reads for updates:


On September 03 2012 15:34 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
I think at this point we need to start some wagons, we need them to start with some time left for EOD to be able to get some reactions and information to work with. More than one, because have 2-3 wagons will give us better opportunities to analyze voting patterns later. I think the best strategy is to wagon suspect lurkers to force reactions/info and adjust accordingly. I'm sure there are at least one scum among the more active posters but we can deal with active posters later. My take on the lurkers (Kville, Cubu, drazark, stutters, weetee):

Kville
Essentially hasn't posted anything. This is definitely suspect, but IF he is a townie who is just really busy starting a wagon won't force any reactions and thus he's not a good target for a wagon right now.

Confirmed.

Cubu:
The weird spazz of this thread. A solid non-contributor. I tend to give the spazzes the benefit of the doubt. Let's look at his short posting history (highlighting points of interest):

+ Show Spoiler +
On September 02 2012 11:02 Cubu wrote:
But how do you lynch that which you cannot see?


On September 02 2012 11:04 Cubu wrote:
And it might be that they are busy doing something offline (school, work etc) so it's hard to judge whether they are lurking or just afk.


On September 03 2012 00:37 Cubu wrote:
I was thinking, what if the mafias are staying quiet to avoid attention to themselves. Maybe, those lurkers are infact the mafia and are trying to just let the others kill each other. There are 12 people playing and 4 mafias (or was it 3?). The fact of the matter is that we have no clues in the first day. So no matter how much we think about it, its all random. Lets kill A, no lets kill B, makes no difference in terms of probability. Of course the chance is in favour of the mafia, because they are the minority.

3/12 = 25% in a random choice. That is 25% chance of randomly lynching the mafia on the first day, which means 75% chance of lynching the townie. I'm thinking the mafia is just waiting for people to accuse each other while they stay silent, away from the accusations, away from the townies attention.

So overall, there is 25% chance of someone being mafia, but if we are not thinking about all 12 to kill (i.e a discussion involving severall loudmouths accusing and defending each other while the mafia are quietly taking their time) it isn't really 25% but infact 0.


On September 03 2012 11:44 Cubu wrote:
guys, before you lynch me, how about we go on with the plan of lynching the lurkers?


On September 03 2012 11:44 Cubu wrote:
and its cubu, not cuba



This is a really bad defense on his part. His posts doesn't make any sense. He suspects scum to have a plan of lurking, while being a lurker himself, and he doesn't know if there's 3 or 4 scum in the game. But the thing is, when looking at his posting history, he has to be on some weird ass level for him to be scum. Let's apply occram's razor, newbie scum don't level. As I said before, lurking scum usually tends to make their few posts rational (see: stutters). He comes across more as a confused townie to me.


Clearly still building on that same image.

drazark:
Contributes little to nothing. Claims to have little time to post due to helping his father to move. I don't think making up excuses like that is something scum would do to avoid posting. They already tend to start out the game feeling kind of guilty, spending the first entire day building up an unnecessary lie isn't very scum-like. Not a strong read either direction, he just recently posted and hopefully he can contribute more shortly.

Responded with a long list, whether townie or scum not that's unexpected. Has become way more active, which makes him an easy pick for surviving to d2. I'm neutral as far as townie/scum read goes.

Stutters:
Only made one post in this thread. In it he adds little in terms of analysis and rationalizes that a low post count doesn't have to be scummy by using an old thread as "alibi", which in itself is weak argumentation. Along with his non-contribution I think he makes a good lynching candidate.

Commented above.

WeeTee:
Not willing to let him off the hook after making a fluffy intro post and then a list of suspects mostly re-hashing old information/reads from earlier in the thread. A decent candidate for lynching, but since he's shown signs of being willing to contribute more, he might be better to reevaluate later.

Made one post after I made my post. He's starting to come off as Cubu, whether town or maffia they come off as confused and are really bad at defending themselves. Our obvious problem is what to do with those players. Accept them as townies because they don't make much sense? Wait until tomorrow and hope they start making sense? For now it's an issue better dealt with tomorrow. WeeTee comes off as more suspect than Cubu though, because WeeTee being scum does not requier some elaborate level.

I personally favor a ##vote stutters wagon. I don't mind a cubu or weetee wagon to see how they react. Drazark would be fourth.

So I would now rank them Stutters > WeeTee > Cubu > Drazark. Although Cubu vs Drazark can go either way. The low level of Cubu's contributions makes him a better lynch candidate even though I think Drazark may be a more likely scum.


Over all putting the heat on lurkers has been kind of a disappointment. Tomorrow we really need to look more closely on active posters. I will be able to check back on this thread in a couple of hours again before going to bed.
kushm4sta
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
United States8878 Posts
September 03 2012 18:30 GMT
#289
On September 04 2012 03:13 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 03 2012 11:44 Cubu wrote:
guys, before you lynch me, how about we go on with the plan of lynching the lurkers?

Show nested quote +
On September 03 2012 11:44 Cubu wrote:
and its cubu, not cuba



This is a really bad defense on his part. His posts doesn't make any sense. He suspects scum to have a plan of lurking, while being a lurker himself, and he doesn't know if there's 3 or 4 scum in the game. But the thing is, when looking at his posting history, he has to be on some weird ass level for him to be scum. Let's apply occram's razor, newbie scum don't level. As I said before, lurking scum usually tends to make their few posts rational (see: stutters). He comes across more as a confused townie to me.

You are wrong to think that scum behavior is always this balance of good and bad townie. Everyone plays mafia differently. And I think you are also wrong to assume that for Cubu to be scum, he would have to be doing some high level mindgames. He's just new and not a good player. If he is town like you say he is, then he is bad, bad town. Wouldn't it also make sense then that as mafia he would be just as bad?
OMGUS.net, kush sex blogs every friday night
Sonic Death Monkey
Profile Joined July 2011
Sweden991 Posts
September 03 2012 19:16 GMT
#290
On September 04 2012 03:30 kushm4sta wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 04 2012 03:13 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
On September 03 2012 11:44 Cubu wrote:
guys, before you lynch me, how about we go on with the plan of lynching the lurkers?

On September 03 2012 11:44 Cubu wrote:
and its cubu, not cuba



This is a really bad defense on his part. His posts doesn't make any sense. He suspects scum to have a plan of lurking, while being a lurker himself, and he doesn't know if there's 3 or 4 scum in the game. But the thing is, when looking at his posting history, he has to be on some weird ass level for him to be scum. Let's apply occram's razor, newbie scum don't level. As I said before, lurking scum usually tends to make their few posts rational (see: stutters). He comes across more as a confused townie to me.

You are wrong to think that scum behavior is always this balance of good and bad townie. Everyone plays mafia differently. And I think you are also wrong to assume that for Cubu to be scum, he would have to be doing some high level mindgames. He's just new and not a good player. If he is town like you say he is, then he is bad, bad town. Wouldn't it also make sense then that as mafia he would be just as bad?


Bad townie acts differently to bad scum. I agree that an inexperienced scum who ends up in a sticky situation will react badly. However, inexperienced scum tends to be much more careful with what they say and thus are less likely to get into the sticky situation in the first place.

On September 03 2012 00:25 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
- An inexperienced townie tends to often act spazzy because he knows he's townie and somehow underestimates the power of the imperfect information in this game. Once his spazzy actions leads to a bandwagon he becomes aware of how difficult it actually is to convince others of his innocence and stop the wagon.
- An inexperienced scum on the other hand is afraid of attention because he realizes the danger of a bandwagon. Since he has close to full information he feels guilty from the get go and wants to stay out of sticky situations.


(this post was written in regards to your weird voting in the beginning of the thread, but the same applies for Cubu's behaviour)
thrawn2112
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6918 Posts
September 03 2012 19:24 GMT
#291
Stutters and WeeTee where you guys at? Get those votes in. Also don't just vote, give thorough explanations for your votes. By waiting so long, you guys are undermining town's attempt to agree on a lynch.

"People think they know all these things about other people, and if you ask them why they think they know that, it'd be hard for them to be convincing." ES
Stutters695
Profile Joined July 2012
2610 Posts
September 03 2012 19:25 GMT
#292
Alright, a couple of thoughts.

On September 02 2012 22:57 Kville wrote:
Im not lurking! I just woke up!


First, why has no one called KVille out on the fact that all he's done is avoided a modkill two days ago and posted zip since then? At the very least step up and say that if he doesn't step up his game he's going to die D2 or something in case he really has been busy. Golbat lived til D4 like this last game as a scum doing the exact same thing. He's managed to drop 6 posts in his other game of mafia but he can't spend 5 minutes here?

@Sonic Death Monkey
So your case against me consists of determining I have "pseudo-helpful posts." What part of my post was "pseudo-helpful"? The fact that if I point out things that don't necessarily mean scumtells because I don't want to see the town go down the same road as it did in XXIV? Fair enough it hasn't been the most helpful but your entire case on lynching me is off of a lack of contribution.

Like others are saying why am I a better lynch than Cubu? He's said he's suspicious of Drazak for one post (which could easily be a misunderstanding of the rules) and is asking people to kill off Kville instead of him because he isn't there. Not providing reads to show why he'll be helpful day2, he just should live because there is someone afk. You bring up how a lurking scum tends to be more rational without any explanation as to why you say that (except to further your own case) and justify not lynching Cubu. Spazzes have been scum before in newbie games (DrWiggl3s, YourHarry) and the only reason they've lived was due to giving them the benefit of the doubt for days (Got Vig Thrawn lynched instead of Scum YH in XXIV).

You also say
The low level of Cubu's contributions makes him a better lynch candidate even though I think Drazark may be a more likely scum.
If you think Drazark is more scummy why would you ever consider Cubu over him? It's not like a flip on Cubu confirms anyone else's alignment this early in the game. Explain.

(As a side note I've just contributed as much as Cubu in terms of scumreads, but you're missing my point from earlier still. It isn't how often you contribute its the intent and what you contribute.)

Part 2 Incoming. I just wanted to address the case against me first to give you guys times to look it over.
Kreb
Profile Joined September 2010
4834 Posts
September 03 2012 19:30 GMT
#293
Small note: if anyone has something to say I'd advice them to do it soon. Its 21:30 CET, which means there will likely be a few EUs going to sleep in 2-3h or sooner (3h ish in my case). Some EUs might not care to check the thread before sleeping either.
kushm4sta
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
United States8878 Posts
September 03 2012 19:36 GMT
#294
On September 04 2012 04:16 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
On September 04 2012 03:30 kushm4sta wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 04 2012 03:13 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
On September 03 2012 11:44 Cubu wrote:
guys, before you lynch me, how about we go on with the plan of lynching the lurkers?

On September 03 2012 11:44 Cubu wrote:
and its cubu, not cuba



This is a really bad defense on his part. His posts doesn't make any sense. He suspects scum to have a plan of lurking, while being a lurker himself, and he doesn't know if there's 3 or 4 scum in the game. But the thing is, when looking at his posting history, he has to be on some weird ass level for him to be scum. Let's apply occram's razor, newbie scum don't level. As I said before, lurking scum usually tends to make their few posts rational (see: stutters). He comes across more as a confused townie to me.

You are wrong to think that scum behavior is always this balance of good and bad townie. Everyone plays mafia differently. And I think you are also wrong to assume that for Cubu to be scum, he would have to be doing some high level mindgames. He's just new and not a good player. If he is town like you say he is, then he is bad, bad town. Wouldn't it also make sense then that as mafia he would be just as bad?


Bad townie acts differently to bad scum. I agree that an inexperienced scum who ends up in a sticky situation will react badly. However, inexperienced scum tends to be much more careful with what they say and thus are less likely to get into the sticky situation in the first place.

On September 03 2012 00:25 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
- An inexperienced townie tends to often act spazzy because he knows he's townie and somehow underestimates the power of the imperfect information in this game. Once his spazzy actions leads to a bandwagon he becomes aware of how difficult it actually is to convince others of his innocence and stop the wagon.
- An inexperienced scum on the other hand is afraid of attention because he realizes the danger of a bandwagon. Since he has close to full information he feels guilty from the get go and wants to stay out of sticky situations.


(this post was written in regards to your weird voting in the beginning of the thread, but the same applies for Cubu's behaviour)



The first real post that he wrote with all the probability strikes me as an attempt at carefulness.
Keep in mind:
1 This is his first mafia game.
2 He never puts effort into any of his posts, at least not on tl. I think it makes sense that his defense is bad, just because can't be bothered to write something good, mafia or not.

Sonic I urge you to change your vote.
Step into the shoes of a total noob shitty poster who doesn't feel like writing anything long. He just did this game for the shits and giggles not to try hard.
Also consider the benefits of a cuba lynch, even if he is not mafia. Worst poster in town gone. Thrawn gets major town points.
Now most importantly consider the benefits if he is scum. We know almost for sure that thrawn is red.

Our read of stutters will only benefit from more time, since he actually posts and there will be more to evaluate. Our read of cuba will stay the same, since he has never shown even the intention of making any cases.

Vote cuba!
OMGUS.net, kush sex blogs every friday night
kushm4sta
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
United States8878 Posts
September 03 2012 19:39 GMT
#295
Just for easy reference:

On September 03 2012 00:37 Cubu wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
I was thinking, what if the mafias are staying quiet to avoid attention to themselves. Maybe, those lurkers are infact the mafia and are trying to just let the others kill each other. There are 12 people playing and 4 mafias (or was it 3?). The fact of the matter is that we have no clues in the first day. So no matter how much we think about it, its all random. Lets kill A, no lets kill B, makes no difference in terms of probability. Of course the chance is in favour of the mafia, because they are the minority.

3/12 = 25% in a random choice. That is 25% chance of randomly lynching the mafia on the first day, which means 75% chance of lynching the townie. I'm thinking the mafia is just waiting for people to accuse each other while they stay silent, away from the accusations, away from the townies attention.

So overall, there is 25% chance of someone being mafia, but if we are not thinking about all 12 to kill (i.e a discussion involving severall loudmouths accusing and defending each other while the mafia are quietly taking their time) it isn't really 25% but infact 0.



To me this is the hardest cuba tried on a post and it is the epitome of overcarefulness.
OMGUS.net, kush sex blogs every friday night
Kville
Profile Joined May 2010
United States173 Posts
September 03 2012 19:47 GMT
#296
Well.here I go. I am not in favor of d1 lynch as it really proves and shows any connections to the game whatsoever. Sorry for my absence but reads are pointless at this point
thrawn2112
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6918 Posts
September 03 2012 19:49 GMT
#297
On September 04 2012 04:47 Kville wrote:
Well.here I go. I am not in favor of d1 lynch as it really proves and shows any connections to the game whatsoever. Sorry for my absence but reads are pointless at this point


Did you ask to be replaced?
"People think they know all these things about other people, and if you ask them why they think they know that, it'd be hard for them to be convincing." ES
Stutters695
Profile Joined July 2012
2610 Posts
September 03 2012 19:56 GMT
#298
We know you know how to play Kville. So start explaining. Currently it seems like you're lying because your 3rd post on Day 1 in NMIII was a vote on Marvellosity. Even if you are telling the truth about your thoughts on d1 lynches your play is so anti-town we honestly would be better off without you
thrawn2112
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6918 Posts
September 03 2012 20:00 GMT
#299
On September 04 2012 04:47 Kville wrote:
Well.here I go. I am not in favor of d1 lynch as it really proves and shows any connections to the game whatsoever. Sorry for my absence but reads are pointless at this point


First, as it's been stated several times, no-lynch isn't an option. You say reads are pointless on D1. But how will reads become less pointless during D2 if hypothetically we could choose to no-lynch? Lynching makes people commit to reads.

You just posted so apparently you want to remain in the game. If so you need to vote to avoid being modkilled so who is your vote?
"People think they know all these things about other people, and if you ask them why they think they know that, it'd be hard for them to be convincing." ES
Kville
Profile Joined May 2010
United States173 Posts
September 03 2012 20:02 GMT
#300
On September 04 2012 05:00 thrawn2112 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 04 2012 04:47 Kville wrote:
Well.here I go. I am not in favor of d1 lynch as it really proves and shows any connections to the game whatsoever. Sorry for my absence but reads are pointless at this point


First, as it's been stated several times, no-lynch isn't an option. You say reads are pointless on D1. But how will reads become less pointless during D2 if hypothetically we could choose to no-lynch? Lynching makes people commit to reads.

You just posted so apparently you want to remain in the game. If so you need to vote to avoid being modkilled so who is your vote?

I voted my self.
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