Newbie Mini Mafia XXIV - Page 9

On August 24 2012 12:33 goodkarma wrote:
We absolutely need to hear from SolarSail now, as SolarSail can confirm or deny being RB'ed today...

@Z-Boson:




This makes zero sense. Feel free to ask host in-thread, but my understanding is this:

If one role-blocker role-blocks another role-blocker that role-blocker's role-block doesn't happen. So in this case if you did role-block YourHarry, YourHarry couldn't have role-blocked Obvious. Which means there's a third role-blocker to make this believable. But there's also DarthPunk being role-blocked, which means there's actually a fourth role-blocker...

In a mafia game of this size, I find it very hard to believe there's four role-blockers.

So at this point I would say it's more likely either you or Obvious is lying...


I look forward to your defense, but I'm not really buying it.

Also, did you see what I wrote against you just before the start of today? I would highly recommend you take some time to defend yourself against what I wrote there.

All roleblocks will result in the target being notified.

On August 25 2012 10:32 goodkarma wrote:
@DarthPunk:

I wouldn't just focus at Golbat's filter. Focus on his interactions with YourHarry, as I feel it's pretty telling. YourHarry focuses a lot on Golbat, especially given how little he was contributing. And then goes on to soft defend him on Day 3.

There are some pretty strong scum tells there if you look for them.

Add to that that he just voted for himself, saying GL town. Let's think about this for a second: I would argue that town is in a very strong position right now. If he was town, why would he vote for himself? He would just be reducing his winning chances, which are strong at this point.

He could have chosen to just vote anyone without explanation, and that would have been consistent with his most recent play.

Instead, he chose to vote for himself. This is more consistent with a demoralized scum giving up than with a lazy townie. Golbat has become as lazy as you can get, popping up to vote without explanation to avoid a modkill. He could have effortlessly kept this up as town, but instead has decided to off himself.

Golbat is scum. Everything fits. You can call him a lurker, but YourHarry's interactions with him and reluctance to vote him after bussing him make sense from a scum perspective, and don't make sense from a town perspective. His vote for himself is the same way.



Another thought to keep in mind:

The NK didn't go through, so it's safe to say we have at least one town roleblocker at this point. I highly doubt that Z-Boson is roleblocker, but if he actually is we would be loosing a valuable power role. I'm willing to lynch him next day cycle in the hopes that some other power role can confirm or deny that he is scum tomorrow.

On August 25 2012 10:36 Obvious.660 wrote:
The fact that the NK didn't go through is not solid evidence that there was a successful roleblock. It could have also been withheld to make us believe that a roleblock was successful. False sense of security. Just a thought.

On August 25 2012 11:19 Keirathi wrote:
Day 4

Vote count:

Z-BosoN (2): DarthPunk, Solarsail, Obvious.660
Golbat (3): Golbat, goodkarma, DarthPunk

Not Voting: Z-BosoN, Stutters695

Golbat currently set to be lynched. Just under 22 hours until the deadline.

As an aside, I just found out that I need to go to the hospital at 7am in the morning to sit with my grandpa. That means I'll be able to check the thread from my phone and answer questions, but vote counts will kind of be a pain, and I think marv is going out of town for the weekend. Can some of you guys step up and keep the vote counts accurate for me?

I should be home in time to do the flavor tomorrow, but it would be a big help to me if you guys could at least keep an unofficial vote tally running every couple of hours and I'll just double check it whenever I get home. <3

On August 25 2012 12:04 Keirathi wrote:

Thanks!

On August 25 2012 16:07 Obvious.660 wrote:

The explanation that Golbat is scum is guesswork.

The explanation that Z-Boson is scum is that no NK occured.

If you think it's unlikely that scum would withhold the NK, then Z-Boson is guaranteed scum.

Why take the risk? We lynch scum here.

On August 25 2012 17:28 Obvious.660 wrote:
It's also clear that Golbat isn't interested in playing. He can extend us the courtesy of yielding to a town victory once his scum partner is lynched without compromising his team's prime directive. If the remaining team is Z-Boson/Golbat and Z-Boson is dead, Golbat can surrender and we win.

On August 25 2012 17:52 Obvious.660 wrote:
That's fine I guess. You let him decide for you. I'll decide for me.

On August 26 2012 07:08 Stutters695 wrote:
Sorry guys I reformatted my laptop for GW2 and had some driver issues. I'd like to second Z-Boson's post here:



We should either be lynching Z-Boson or Solarsail today without question. Currently its a 5/2 split. If we go after Golbat and he isn't scum for some reason unless there is no night kill again we put ourselves back into LYLO at 3/2 where every town has to hit the same scum or its GG.

If we lynch Solarsail or Z-Boson and we hit the wrong one, we still end up at LYLO 3/2 but we have essentially confirmed a scum (town has 0 reason to lie about being roleblocked or roleblocking in the circumstances it happened in). We simply lynch the other person next day and at least salvage it to 2/1 pretty easily. Note: everything from here on is WIFOM on trying to reason who to lynch, but it should be clear that one of them has to die.

So in my mind it becomes a question of if we should believe Z-Boson or Solarsail. Looking back at the facts we have these roleblocks claimed by the people who got blocked:
N1: DarthPunk
N2: Obvious, Darthpunk (Z-Boson claims he RB'd YH)
N3: None (Z-Boson claims he RB'd Solar, solar denies)

It's pretty safe to assume DarthPunk is telling the truth. He's had a pretty strong town presence all game and would be a fairly good RB target.

So that leaves 1 unexplained RB N2 and N3. If Obvious is telling the truth that backs Solar claiming Z-Boson is lying about his RBs and he's scum. If he's not it means both Solar and Obvious are lying and its hard to believe the scums would commit themselves together on something that's easily verifiable.

Of course the converse is if Z-Boson is telling the truth we lynch our RB in exchange for a gauranteed scum kill next round. I'm going to reread their filters now to figure out who I think we should lynch but I encourage everyone to consider one of those two as our target today.

On August 26 2012 07:49 Stutters695 wrote:
You're missing the point though. If Golbat isn't scum (its not a 100% certainty) we're putting ourselves in a 50/50 shot to win or lose on a MYLO the next day instead of having a near 100% chance to take it down to 1 scum by the next lynch.

Why would YH distance himself from Golbat by accusing him instead of trying to do something similar with the third scum who isn't lurking and asking to get poilcy lynched like Golbat is. It doesn't make sense at all. We should have policy lynched him d1 or d2 yes but having more info on more people before a LYLO or MYLO is only beneficial. Lynching Golbat we get nothing unless he flips red and if he doesn't we've just wasted a lynch and put ourselves against the chopping block.