EPTWhat do you think about mkfuba. He in one hand defends Solar against your case, but non-committingly adds that Solar is not acting against pro-town behavior. Scum mkfuba motivated to push Solar mislynch, expecting subsequent emotional and "snarky" behavior from Solar.
Newbie Mini Mafia XXIV - Page 2
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
What do you think about mkfuba. He in one hand defends Solar against your case, but non-committingly adds that Solar is not acting against pro-town behavior. Scum mkfuba motivated to push Solar mislynch, expecting subsequent emotional and "snarky" behavior from Solar. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
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YourHarry
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YourHarry
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
But let's forget everything I said about Solar. I will re-evaluate when more people post. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
I thought GK and Solarsail were mason buddies. The reason for my thinking this is: On August 15 2012 12:17 goodkarma wrote: @Solarsail: Sigh... I really hope this entire day doesn't revolve around you because you got off to a bad start. I feel it's more likely you're an overaggressive townie right now. Seeing as how this is your first game I would recommend you take a look at prior games and how people present "cases" on other people. Try to show us why you feel someone is scummy rather than blindly accusing people. The last thing I want is for us to waste an entire day getting a bad townie lynched. And obligatory game filters: Vanilla townie: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=353315&user=81106 Godfather: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874&user=81106 GK's post struck me as strange because it made it sound like he knew Solar's alignment. He even starts the post with a "Sigh..." as if the town has been going in the wrong direction. My first suspicion was that they are scums together, but I don't think scums support each other this obviously and directly. GK using such wordings would strongly incriminate him if Solar ever flips scum. Thus, I thought this possibility is not likely. My second reaction was that they may have a history together. I thought Solar reacted similar way in previous games in which GK was in, which ended in some sort of fail. I checked GK's game filter and he had no history of Solar. And Solar admittedly played only one game prior to this in a different forum. Thus assuming they are mason buddies, I re-read Solar's posts. It made sense that he made confident, dauntless posts calling people out as if he knew someone could vouch for his being town. It even made sense that as mason, he may posit how it could have been scary to draw scum, something of the opposite. On August 15 2012 09:32 Solarsail wrote: Reading the many guides linked on the library which are incredbly helpful, the most important thing I saw is that the town needs to stay active and stay on point. If we are to lynch anyone it has to be because of real information and evidence, and that has to be readily available from the thread. If we're trying to learn we need a long record to practise analysing. Imagine how scared of posting you would be if you'd signed up for your first game and rolled Mafia. Your posts would be short, infrequent, and not hold any information that disagrees with the general direction so as not to stand out. Also, I began to be more confident about this read after GK stopped responding to my explanation on why I thought Solar was town: On August 15 2012 12:55 YourHarry wrote: GK, your post regarding Solar was the reason why I found him town. Is that enough explanation for you? I thought GK understood what I was implying here. And since he stopped questioning me, I thought my read that they are masons together was correct. I guess I was wrong.  | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
On August 15 2012 18:49 Shady Sands wrote: Mkfuba posted something that was perfectly townish which YH tried to twist into scummy play. Again, I was indeed guilty of this. But this was a result of my strong suspicion that Solar was town. I did realize I was taking things out of context when Mkfuba pointed this out. You accuse me of posting one liners. I often post one liners and not much information is available in the beginning of the day, so few sentences would suffice in explaining reads. One liners can have content. And agreeing with you so readily is not a scummy behavior. Me if anything as scum may even be reluctant to agree with people readily, unless they have a strong case, in fear that people may point things out. @Goodkarma. You did not find Solar scummy based on previous cases at all? What makes you so confident about town going in the wrong direction in accusing Solar. It is almost as if you know his alignment? | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
Mkfuba: First, there is a difference in cautiously wondering if Solar is a newbie townie, which is what you did, and knowing that Solar is a suspiciously playing town. This is what GK wrote: Sigh... I really hope this entire day doesn't revolve around you because you got off to a bad start. You guys propose the same thing in that Solar is not a good lynch. But the underlying basis for GK's proposal is based on what he somehow knows as a certainty. There is a subtle but important difference here. And this is why I think GK is scum, now that I realize that they are not mason brothers. Second, I do think the evidence was quiet sufficient. I am actually surprised that no one saw the same thing I did. In addition to GK's cooperative acceptance of Solar as just an over-agreessive townie , Solar's bold posting style fit almost perfectly once I started believing that he was a mason. Finally when GK no longer questioned me, I became more confident of my read. Also, what information do scums have that townies don't have that would allow scums to speculate better on mason alignments? There is one thing: since scums know everyone who is not scums, they may have easier time identifying the mason claims. But from my perspective, as long as I deemed the possibility of GK/Solar being scums together to be unlikely, my ability to speculate on mason alignment is as good as scums'. You may feel like I am playing with more information because I was quick to believe GK/Solar mason, but logically information available to scums does not allow them to better read masons as long as townies can also establish that GK/Solar are not scums together. I explained my reason for thinking that GK/Solar are not scums together, though I am having second thoughts about this. Thus, my identifying GK/Solar mason combination, even if it was based on less than convincing evidence does not lend much support to me being scum. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
Just because I didn't write in paragraphs or in formal style, does not mean I am not taking this game seriously. I am taking forced breaks at work to make these posts. In the beginning I wrote one liners because that's exactly what I needed to convey what I wanted to say. Now, I am writing in paragraphs because that's what it takes me to explain my suspicious actions regarding sudden switch of stance on Solar. And also, if you had thought that Solar/GK were masons, would you have acted in a different way than I did? If so, what would you have done? Also, let's suppose I am scum. Do you think Solar is likely to be my scum partner? @GK you still have not answered my question. What did you think about Shady's case on Solar? Did it occur to you that Solar could have been scum? | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
On August 16 2012 10:47 DarthPunk wrote: You read way too much into a single post by GoodKarma and used that to base an entire read off? Whilst this seems plausible it is not enough to sell me on your Innocence. The swiftness in which you flip from voting for someone to believing him to be masoned is near unbelievable, unless you know that they were green. The swiftness of my flip is explained by revelation that GK and Solar were mason buddies, though. If I am scum and knew that they were green, you could accept my sudden change in my point of view regarding Solar's alignment. Would scum Harry decide to compromise what seems to be a semi-promising mislynch in Solar (assuming Solar is not Harry's scum partner) to risk being suspected, by trying to protect who scum Harry thought was a mason? Then continue to sacrifice being suspicious by not revealing his initial read even despite continuous pressure, until it became obvious that Harry was wrong about his mason reads? Or is this more likely the course of action from a town Harry? What would be the explanation for this? The only explanation that I can see is that scum Harry somehow wanted to establish his pro-town behavior by pretending to be a town who does not want to reveal identities of mason. Though, I still do not think that I would have been awry of so suddenly changing my point of view, as it would surely incite much suspicion. On August 16 2012 10:47 DarthPunk wrote: You deemed someone which you had just proclaimed as scum and voted for to be green? and this allowed you to Identify the scum pair? You see, This is a major hole in your logic and perhaps the first slip of the game. I guess you mean, mason pair. I admit that I was simply basing my read on GK's post. If you read GK's post though, don't you think you can share my point of view? I am posting GK's post again, because I really think deduction of GK/Solar mason buddies not too unreasonable: On August 15 2012 12:17 goodkarma wrote: @Solarsail: Sigh... I really hope this entire day doesn't revolve around you because you got off to a bad start. I feel it's more likely you're an overaggressive townie right now. Seeing as how this is your first game I would recommend you take a look at prior games and how people present "cases" on other people. Try to show us why you feel someone is scummy rather than blindly accusing people. I definitely found it strange how GK had not a single inkling of suspicion against Solar, who I for sure found very scummy. Again, it is possible that they are scum together. But I posted earlier my explanation of initially dismissing this possibility: YourHarry wrote: GK's post struck me as strange because it made it sound like he knew Solar's alignment. He even starts the post with a "Sigh..." as if the town has been going in the wrong direction. My first suspicion was that they are scums together, but I don't think scums support each other this obviously and directly. GK using such wordings would strongly incriminate him if Solar ever flips scum. Thus, I thought this possibility is not likely. DarthPunk wrote You publicly stated that the reason you unvoted solar was that you believe he was masoned. Now you are saying that you could identify the mason pair as easily as scum because you ruled out the possibility of them both being scum. This is a fallacy. It seems very likely that you knew the alignments of both GK and Solar and that was the reason that you made the mason connection. Could you explain this fallacy. I wanted to argue that even if I was scum, my ability to identify mason would not be better than towns', as long as towns' also agreed that GK and Solar are not scums together. Here is my post explaining this: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=359489¤tpage=13#244 And this is the reason why I suspect GK to be the scum, because unless GK and Solar are mason together, he somehow knew the town alignment of Solar. The same same argument that you are making now, on why I am scum for knowing GK/Solar's alignment can be made about GK, for knowing Solar's alignment. Except, hopefully my explanation makes sense that my reasoning for knowing is based on thinking that GK/Solar was mason. GK, on the other hand, does not have explanation for this. As far as I am concerned, GK actually back-tracked his initial knowledge of Solar being scum. I will post about this soon. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
First, the post I want everyone to re-read is the one that got me in trouble. I honestly don't know what GK is thinking here unless they were mason buddies: On August 15 2012 12:17 goodkarma wrote: @Solarsail: Sigh... I really hope this entire day doesn't revolve around you because you got off to a bad start. I feel it's more likely you're an overaggressive townie right now. Seeing as how this is your first game I would recommend you take a look at prior games and how people present "cases" on other people. Try to show us why you feel someone is scummy rather than blindly accusing people. The last thing I want is for us to waste an entire day getting a bad townie lynched. I mean, he sighs! You may laugh and say this is trivial, but to me this is an indication of certainty that everyone else who has been suspecting Solar is wrong and he somehow has this knowledge and disapproves. Then he asks me why I find Solar townie. And exactly 3 minutes later, when I explain to him why I thought Solar was a mason, in this encryptive post that I thought he would understand if he was a mason: On August 15 2012 12:55 YourHarry wrote: GK, your post regarding Solar was the reason why I found him town. Is that enough explanation for you? And since he is not a mason, he should have questioned me regarding what I could possibly mean. It should have been very confusing! WTF am I talking about. Instead, he disappear. Still, I guess it is possible that he logged off in that 3 minute period. He does not seem to post frequently, afterall. To me, the above is the most convincing evidence that GK is scum. But his rest of the play are also scummy: Again, even if he disappeared previously before he saw my initial response to him. Thinking that GK was a mason, I made more direct references to him, including the quote below, hoping that he would discretely support my point of view. But now, knowing that GK is not a mason, town GK should have had strong scum read on me. Yet, he does not comment or respond to any of my posts that directly calls out his name. Shady, unless GK or someone starts accusing me I standby my decision. And his next post is basically bunch of fluffs. The part I think are almost pure fluffs are bolded: On August 15 2012 19:16 goodkarma wrote: Expect a meaningful case writeup on who I suspect to be likely scum sometime tomorrow. A couple quick comments before bed though... Regarding the suspicions going at Shady: Yes, he may have maintained a high degree of activity with few case points presented by himself, but to his credit he has gotten town talking and meaningful discussion rolling. I'm content to see him "prod" people, as someone needs to do this. And his case on YourHarry is definitely a good start in the right direction. Let's keep in mind there's three scum, not just one. So let's each try to give multiple scum reads where possible instead of tunneling one person at a time. Especially since if everyone tunnels the same guy today, and doesn't discuss other suspects in any detail, we pretty much go into day one all over again (if we mislynch) come day 2. I would have liked, for example, to hear a little more about Shady's "scum reads" on some of the people he's prodded prior and taken a break from, especially Solarsail. And regarding reading our filters from prior games: This is a newbie game, meaning filters are very sparse. A two-game "meta read" is hardly anything to go off of, as you can't honestly expect people to make exactly the same mistakes in their play over and over again. Everyone's gameplay will definitely change in the first few games. It's near-impossible to get a real "play pattern" off like two games, and I don't feel a "meta-read" is really going to be that valuable... If anything, it will make people over-suspicious of people who have a strong scum history, and overly-trusting of those with a strong town history. Then his next post is again, a bunch weak wishy-washy reads on some players. It is basically a narration on what had happened previously, regarding Solarsail (which incidentally, now he thinks Solarsail could be a scum) but he does explain why he doesn't think Solarsai is scum, because it would be "high risk high reward" scum style... On August 16 2012 06:41 goodkarma wrote: Solarsail's most recent postings definitely are a change of stance from his "troll" behavior he exhibited earlier and deserves a little time to comment on. I am very glad to see Solarsail renounce his trolling ways. Personally, I don't feel it was a very strong way to start the game. There will be suspicion cast on him the rest of the game for this day one play. However, I agree with his point that scum would have little motivation to go away from "trolling." His early gameplay was pretty disruptive, to the point of derailing all conversation onto him. Had he continued with "trolling," there's no doubt in my mind that he could have been that guy town would be 100% unsure of the rest of the game with no hope of a better read. Going away from this "troll" playstyle gives us more insight into Solarsail's motivation behind his posts, which is not a good idea from a scum perspective. As scum, he could have hidden behind his troll behavior until getting lynched. If he did a good job of it, he would be so disruptive there would be no meaningful conversation about other scum reads. Further, when the time came to lynch him there would be such consensus that no meaningful leads would come from his lynching. As I've just mentioned, there is a legitimate scum reason for his early postings. But as I've already discussed, I feel his aggressive early stance was most likely town-motivated. This is because in a newbie game, I would not expect such a scum play, but rather for scum to play more "safely." Further, the scum playstyle I've described would be a bit high risk, high reward. The longer a "troll scum" could stay alive, the more derailed the town would be and the better off the scum team would be. However, drawing attention to one's self like Solarsail did so early in the game would definitely put scum in a situation where they might have to bus Solarsail day one, and I can't think of many situations where a voluntary day one scum bus is ever really a good idea. Therefore, even though I could see a "troll scum" motivation, Solarsail's early play felt too aggressive even for that. TL;DR: Solarsail, like anyone else here, could be scum, but my impression of his early play was that he was more likely an aggressive townie. I feel there is more of a plausible town motivation than a scum motivation for him to now change his playstyle to be more constructive. In summary, non-mason but town GK should have been highly suspicious of me for continuing to making references to GK. He should have at least responded to my posts, wondering about what is going on. I can't say why I know scum GK would do this, however, except to reference XXIII where he was scum and was basically lurking. He is definitely posting more now, probably because he knows that policy lynch could hurt him, but I think overall, he is more hesitant to engage in direct conversations as scum. And I see the tendency of such reluctance to share his "reads" in many of his fluffy, wishy-washy posts. But more importantly, I think his prior knowledge of Solar's town alignment (even when Solar was acting suspicious and others were accusing him) makes him the best lynch candidate today. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
FOS Golbat Jyhut Stutters and Archrun for lurking. Please do share your current reads. In particular, I would like your comments on what you think of my case against GK. If you do not have time to participate in the future, do try to contribute today as much as today and request replacement. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
On August 16 2012 11:07 DarthPunk wrote: Re-reading the thread something Thrawn stated seemed incredibly suspicious. Why are you actively trying to prove that someone is a town? rather than find the scum? what possible town motivation is behind this? It seems to me like you are trying to convince the one person at that time whom had still expressed doubts on Your harry's alignment to believe that he was town and not scum. This is not pro-town activity. Spending time trying to convince a particular person of a players green status day one is scum behaviour. Establishing someone as confirmed townie is actually very advantageous for town. Masons, for example, are nothing but confirmed townies to each other and can be very powerful, especially in the late game. It is also another reason why scums prefer to NK confirmed townies. But, of course, it is difficult to establish to 100% confirm townies, just like it is difficult to establish confirmed scums. So I agree that, in the beginning of the game, we should focus more on establishing scum read. But if obvious town read sticks out, we should share it with others. It is scum motivation to do the opposite - to limit as many town reads as possible. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
Were you not suspicious of me because of those posts? | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
On August 16 2012 13:15 goodkarma wrote: And the "Sigh..." comment that you're embellishing has nothing to do with me thinking Solar was a "confirmed town." It had to do with frustration with the scenario of us wasting our entire day tunneling and lynching a bad town (which I still believe Solar to be). In said scenario, we go into day two without any information. It's a terrible situation, because it makes day two into another day one with fewer town. But there were cases that were made, including a few that have been made by Shady, that outlined why Solar was scummy. It was not just that Solar seemed to be trolling that I (and others) thought that Solar was suspicious. But instead of evaluating points of these cases, you simply dismissed them. Giving him an advice to Solar to respond in a coherent manner is one thing and I would have been fine with it. But outright dismissing cases against Solar, simply because Solar seemed to be trolling and hyper-aggressive ... I have hard time understand how a town not knowing Solar's alignment would act in the way you did. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
And actually, upon re-evaluation, I can accept the possibility that GK was indeed not sure about Solar's alignment but was indeed worried that we may tunnel on a player that he somehow thought was a town. Still, the alternative is also possible. It could have been a scum slip that GK is now fabricating the explanations for. Either way, since this is WIFOM, I want to partially retract my case against GK. But I still want to know why he didn't find me suspicious for keep bringing his name up, and why he decided to dismiss the points made in other people's case against Solar. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
Shady, regarding your accusation of thrawn, are you suspecting Thrawn and Golbat are scums together, because of their weird interactions? The first part of your accusation, Shady, I do not disagree with. Why is it scummy to ask me who I thought are top scum candidates? It would have made sense to ask such question since most of our conversation was based on who I thought was confirmed townie in Solar. Also, his analysis of the possibilities of what happened. Logically I see some holes in his argument, but attempting to analyze what had happened systematically I think is a town tell. | ||
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