|
@Darth: I feel... lucky. Thus, your CrazyHarry policy lynch sounds rather enticing.
What about these jokers who were pushing to switch the vote AWAY from YH within the hour before the deadline? Shouldn't we be concerned they were quiet for 2 days and suddenly got all uppity when YH was about to die? If YH was the mafia's "town voice", it's not a slam dunk but rather probable that his scum partners would be jumping to his defense at the eleventh hour.
I just went back to glance at the case I wrote on Solar and I see that YH was the ONLY scum player in his list of suspicions up to his vote on Golbat. So, in light of the flip, it's time to look at the interactions between Solar and YH to decide if this was:
>out of necessity (demonstrating self-preservation by not looking out of place for not being suspicious [fitting in]), or
>if he willingly built a fresh case (showing legitimate concern that YH was mafia) against YH.
I'm still worried about Golbat but that's a bridge that will be crossed when it needs to be. It's really not fair for a town Golbat to do this to us.
Going back to look at YH/Solar interactions.
|
Starting from YourHarry's side:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15862745
And this is the reason why I suspect GK to be the scum, because unless GK and Solar are mason together, he somehow knew the town alignment of Solar. The same same argument that you are making now, on why I am scum for knowing GK/Solar's alignment can be made about GK, for knowing Solar's alignment. Except, hopefully my explanation makes sense that my reasoning for knowing is based on thinking that GK/Solar was mason.
This among other things, it's like the entire first 1/5 of Harry's filter is discussing the Solar/GK mason theory. We now know that Harry knew Solar and GK's alignments. His "knowing" they were mason buddies was based on a single word that was making something of nothing ("sigh"). Okay, so YH stops talking about Solar, or rather nothing was found (with Ctrl+F for "solar") in his filter after about 1/5 down the page referring to Solar until his last vote, just hours ago, against Solar. The guy "town Harry" had pegged for town at the beginning of the game.
To indulge myself a little bit of WIFOM, why would YourHarry do this? Why not go down silently? Did the plan suddenly go from "I'm going down silently" to "Shit! Who's going to lead town to the last mislynch?" These are things that don't keep me awake at night because I sleep like an angry bear.
Summary from the YH side: YH spends a goodly amount of time defending Solar as town when tunneling on GK, and then votes Solar at the end. We can't trust YH because we don't know his motives, and we're having a hard time trusting Solar because of his highly-dependent play.
Solar side:
Chided YH for YH's vote against thrawn not having much evidence... but what is this? A mini-revelation in my head?
Up to this point, no significant mentions of YH until we get:
On August 20 2012 08:09 Solarsail wrote:What a surprise. Scum YH has a good motivation for this: be accused as one of the three, bus Thrawn to save yourself when the case against you looks strong, and backtrack on that close to deadline when he's about to be lynched and people are talking about switching. On August 20 2012 08:53 Solarsail wrote:
Vote reverting to Thrawn per my earlier post since an Obvious lynch is not really possible in 7 minutes.
##Vote: Thrawn2112 On August 23 2012 08:27 Solarsail wrote:Show nested quote +On August 23 2012 08:10 goodkarma wrote:
TL;DR:
One last time: we don't have the time to vote switch. You do if you all verbally agree that you'd do it at 10 minutes to, and anyone that didn't would be immediately voted at 5 minutes to. IRC mafia decisions can be done in much less time with everyone there. IRC mafia, huh? You've been keeping naughty secrets.
Maybe the most important/telling interaction between them for the entire game:
On August 20 2012 08:19 Solarsail wrote:Show nested quote +On August 20 2012 08:17 YourHarry wrote:On August 20 2012 08:09 Solarsail wrote:
I am having second thoughts about Thrawn.
What a surprise. Scum YH has a good motivation for this: be accused as one of the three, bus Thrawn to save yourself when the case against you looks strong, and backtrack on that close to deadline when he's about to be lynched and people are talking about switching. That is not the reason for my switch, but I understand your suspicion. I can't move my vote for now because if I do, I will be lynched. You can move your vote with an even stronger case on someone else. I encourage you to do so because your initial vote against Thrawn wasn't with much evidence.
Solar is, out loud, explicitly, in the thread, OKAY with YourHarry letting himself get lynched by unvoting. A better player than myself could please take a look at this since my WIFOM tank is empty?
|
On August 23 2012 12:53 goodkarma wrote:
@Obvious: Explain to me why it is on day 3 you completely ignore my case on YourHarry, and jump from Golbat to Solarsail. And only when called out for it, you become the last to vote for YourHarry on day 3. And I would also like to know how SolarSail, who wasn't on your scum suspect list at all, becomes your top scum read, but only after DarthPunk tells you he's making a case on him.
(-snip-)
We all know how important tonight is for town, so be warned: if you don't participate expect to be rewarded with an FOS and a likely vote. If you didn't know, failing to show your views right now is anti-town and serves only a scum agenda.
In other words: There's no acceptable town-motivated bullshit excuse you can make up to get out of participating tonight without getting noticed.
Well, originally I had a problem with you because you wanted me to do the work of figuring out what the hell Ochrow was doing. I can't answer for Ochrow, and since I know that Ochrow was town, it would have been a waste of time to go back through his filter and think about his interactions with people looking for his "town motive" when it can all be explained by bad town play. Your continuing to push me for it was further encouraging me to waste my analysis time looking AT MYSELF (Ochrow's filter) instead of at other players. So stemmed my distrust of you to start.
Regarding the case against Solar, Darth asked me a direct question so I complied. Why is that a problem? I originally looked quickly through all the filters to come up with my short list, and his request gave me a reason to take a second, deeper look at Solar. I found reasons for me to believe he was scummy before Darth posted his own. If I hadn't found anything worth mentioning, I would have said so.
As for the vote switch, I have already said that I had a very difficult time reading YH, perhaps because I was giving him the BOTD regarding his playstyle. When it was clear in the thread that we were consolidating votes, I had no problem moving my vote over. My candidate, Solar, wasn't gaining traction and in the event that we were right about YH, he would still have to present his defense and scum reads today.
|
On August 23 2012 15:26 goodkarma wrote:
@Obvious:
Just one more question:
Would you mind sharing your top two scum reads?
SolarSail is still one.
I'm at a toss-up between Golbat and Z-Boson right now. Golbat mostly because I still can't believe a town Golbat would have not poked back in yet. How sick can you be to not at least chime in that you're still alive or something? I still haven't gone back to check Z-Boson/YH interactions but I might not have time to before the night ends. I will try though.
Stutters doesn't make my list because of his highly comprehensive case against YH, but this one tidbit just stuck out to me and it means I'll be doing another once-over on him soon too:On August 21 2012 10:48 Stutters695 wrote:Show nested quote +On August 21 2012 09:40 DarthPunk wrote:
I was roleblocked again. And I don't understand the jhuyt NK at all. I was expecting either myself or goodkarma to get shot. I am guessing it was to try and confuse us. Ditto. I was expecting one of you guys and if they were going to try and throw us off probably a vote on me. Kinda surprised Jhuyt of all people. That post by GK right before the deadline is good though. It really comes down to if you believe GK is town or not and I currently do. I'm going to re-read the thread and try and get some better ideas. This is our last shot town, lets make it count. @Stutters: DITTO as in you were also roleblocked? Or just your suspicions of who the NK targets would be?
|
I'm reading Stutters as town here upon further review. A scum Stutters makes for a very sophisticated bus strategy, very very high risk strategy here in a newbie game, so I'm not willing to bank on that.
Solar/Golbat or Solar/Z-Boson are my scum team picks.
|
On August 24 2012 05:39 goodkarma wrote:As promised, another piece of evidence pointing to a Z-Boson / Golbat scumteam: Upon first asking Z-Boson for his reads: Show nested quote +On August 24 2012 01:38 Z-BosoN wrote:-snip- Now, of course, he is in phase 3He has assumed a VERY defensive position as soon as YH was lynched: After you've finished going through the filters let me know if I've got to defend myself against anything, because tomorrow's gonna come down to me vs Obvious and I'd much rather be going through filters trying to find a third option, especially if Golbat somehow flips town and throws everything off.
My play today was weak sheeping because I believed we had pretty much lost. I wasn't trying to put together a case of my own because it came down to whether goodkarma was right or not. Today I will be more active and more independent. No one had even said anything yet, and he assumes an exaggerated defensive stance. This sounds too much like a scum that is feeling cornered. What does he mean, by "if Golbat somehow flips town"? Is he expecting the nk to go on Golbat? Also, since I feel Golbat is most likely town, this could be a huge scumslip-snip- But then he says: Show nested quote +On August 24 2012 03:04 Z-BosoN wrote:
@goodkarma
I have no logical arguments for why I think Golbat is town. He doesn't care about the game, doesn't show any interest in posting, and the few posts that he has that I can analyze I deem are pretty neutral. He could just as well be scum or town, so let me correct myself:
I have a neutral read on him, but think he is town because I feel Solar is scum and made a scumslip.
Obvious has been under the radar, but he seems incredibly suspicious to me as well. This is clearly a scumslip. He is right that there is no logical argument to think that Golbat is town, but he decides to do it anyway. He then backs off his read and decides Golbat's a "neutral" read. Between this and the remainder of my case, it's pretty clear we've got our two remaining scum.
Z-Boson then Golbat? I will accept that. You've got a decent case there for Z-Boson/Golbat and it's a lot better than my nitpicking over SolarSail's play.
|
On August 24 2012 06:12 goodkarma wrote:@SolarSail:I wish you would have contributed more earlier, but I'm glad you're here. Keep it coming  @Obvious:More analysis please! I spent a lot of time coming to my conclusions. You can do better than a 2-line response. I know what you're capable of! 
I'm on a sort of crunch time with the vote happening in my other game and getting ready to leave for the gym, but I am glad you know I am capable of more. Just to be clear so I don't go in the wrong direction, you want me to play iSpy with Z-Boson before night ends?
|
Jesus, Z-Boson spends a whole lot of time railing on YH without ever voting for him.
Then crazy speculative post about the NKs that got caught up in the rest of the WIFOM of the D1-2 madness. Also in that post:
+ Show Spoiler +On August 19 2012 05:16 Z-BosoN wrote:
My take on thrawn2112's situation
My certain conclusion, based on the rest of this post is this:
By golly, thrawn is a very very VERY bad player. If you read my analysis on the NK's and on GK's post, you'll see that no matter if he is scum or vigi or just regular townie, he is playing this very badly. I just can't pinpoint with extreme certainty whether he is a very bad scum or a very bad townie. I have a very strong inclination on a bad scum, because a scum thrawn who would kill mkfuba to try to escape in some WIFOM manner would seem to me less stupid than a Vigi thrawn, who with already so much pressure on him (before the nk i mean), would waste his ONLY bullet on such a CRAPPY hunch with so LITTLE evidence.
What I'm going to do now is read more carefully the DarthPunk x Thrawn exchange, which seemed to me a little edgy, and will see what sort of conclusions can come from this with a thrawn lynch. I haven't gone through DarthPunk's filter yet and I try to see if his conviction on thrawn is as clear as goodkarma's.
First, however, I will update my D1 suspicions on YourHarry, because his posting, however more frequent and more detailed, still seems to be filled with trashy talk and crappy arguments.
Anyways, due to what I have stated earlier, I think the best option right now is:
##Vote thrawn2112
Okay, so during that day of the vote for Thrawn, when Thrawn tries to make a case against "Zobalt" (lol) for lurking, Z-Boson just shits on him for it. Like literally, in the thread, drops trou and puts a Cleveland Steamer right on Thrawn. He's never looked at the possibility that Ochrow (now, me) could be bad town.
Here's the YH bus taking place:
+ Show Spoiler +On August 20 2012 12:25 Z-BosoN wrote:All right guys, some debriefing should take place. I agree that we shouldn't back off during the night. It is crucial we get it right this time. Let's see what we have: YourHarryExtremely weird player. My main theory against him was that he was trying to do a lame bus on thrawn. Granted as thrawn was indeed vigi, this is not the case. However, his posts and comments generally are inconsistent, lack explanations, and keep changing. His posts are a diarrhea of WIFOM that I've decided are only here to confuse us with its vagueness, lack of clarity, and lack of purpose. Observe: Show nested quote +I am having second thoughts about Thrawn. First thing that doesn't make sense if Thrawn is scum: If Thrawn is indeed scum then he left that "bread crumb" post so that he can use that as evidence to mislead the town that he is vigilante. But Thrawn denied this post as the "bread crumb" post, and in his initial claim, he never even referenced this post in the first place... Mega power WIFOM. Show nested quote +
Second thing that I am not sure about is that, claiming vigilante is so dangerous for scum. One weak point in this line of thinking is that Thrawn did ask the mod to confirm that there could be more than one vigilante. I think it is possible that scum Thrawn DID ask the moderator in private prior to asking publicly that there could be more than one vigilante.
What is this supposed to implicate? Useless garbage. Show nested quote +
STILL, whether or not there could be two vigilante... a counter vigilante claim would definitely have made Thrawn look suspicious. Would it not? I am not sure scum would have taken this risk.
He keeps babbling, and doesn't make a point. How in anyway is this post helping town? And we keep going: Show nested quote +But I am scared to unvote, because I will be the next person to be lynched after Thrawn What is this supposed to mean? Is he a scum that wants us to think this or is he a townie that wants us to think that he is thinking... oh wait, WIFOM. This statement means CRAP. ... and more .... Show nested quote +I am not super confident in my scum read. Upon my reading just now, I found Jhyut case's scummy. Sheeping Thrawn's case here, but Jhyut did not care whether I am town or scum - he wanted to lynch me. I thought he was something else, but I guess I was wrong again. HE is also lurking pretty hard, so he may turn out to be scum Crappety crap crap CRAP. He is randomly throwing around suspicions and not committing to anything. This in no conceivable way helps town. Show nested quote +My case against Golbat and Darth was based on my scum read on Thrawn. Not sure anymore. Scumslip? How does he suddenly know that thrawn is not scum? Oh, that's right, he decided thrawn isn't scum with his brilliant and well thought-out argument, quoted above. I'm sure we can agree that his posts don't help the town and scream scum. Even though there was strong evidence that thrawn and YH were scum, due to the way they were playing it D1, I am still inclined to think he is scum. This requires much more thought, as we will have to be certain that we lynch a scum in the next day. JhuytHe is a quiet and lurky player. He mentions possibilities, without compromise, and doesn't take a stance on anything. Show nested quote +The more I think of it the more I find that either Shady or Thrawn is scum. But since my basis of suspicion against Thrawn is basically gone I really can't vote for him. I think this post + Show Spoiler + coupled with Thrawn's reason to accuse Arch is enough for me too consider Shady as scum.
##Vote: Shady Sands
I have to go for the next couple of hours so I won't be here for the conclusion of the day, see ya later. Bases himself off completely off of someone else's arguments, and announces he will have to leave. He then makes complains about how wishy-washy YourHarry is, says it is urgent that we lynch him, and starts to make shallow arguments on GK: Show nested quote +When I looked at the case GK made in this post I got the feeling that you might be scum, but I wasn't sure. When I couple that with your scumslip it makes more sense that he's right and therefore I think you're scum.
The benefit of the doubt line was one that I was considering to cut out of the post because it doesn't add anything and I'm pretty sure I misused the expression.
I should have said that while I do think you're scum I think that YH's behaviour is way scummier and so much more anti-town that a lynch on him is necessary so that we can have a clearer discussion. But still considering YourHarry's wishy-washyness more scummy. Gets attacked by thrawn, who basically states the same things I'm saying right now, and is defended with weak and contentless posts. He simply doesn't take a solid stance on anyone (except maybe for YH). He's generally much more lurkier and gives off too few to work with. GolbatBeastly Lurker. Joined on the thrawn bandwagon and disappeared. We should have lynched him a long time ago. This makes me understand why lurker policy needs to be so strong. If he was a civilian before, then we would be down a lurking civilian who was not helping at all. Now, however, we cannot afford another misslynch, and have to be more careful. But since he has barely any posts, it will be very hard to determine for sure what he is. goodkarma and DarthPunkI wanted to make sure that I wasn't skipping any details on the non-obvious choices. I've noticed some weird behavior on GK, which I've already mentioned. Since I've already gone through thrawn's filter, I can understand where GK could have found some reason to back off of thrawn. I don't think he is scum, as I can't think of why a scum would go ahead and say I'M SURE HES GUILTY, to backing off entirely. Scum generally take hesitant postures that lack commitment and conviction. I've read DarthPunk's filter carefully and wasn't able to detect anything too suspicious or compromising, as he has been making accusations and backing them up with well explained arguments. Also, both him and goodkarma have been making tons of pro-town and meaningful accusations. If one of them is mafia, it is not in this round that we will be able to lynch them unless we can pick up on something not yet noted. Stutters and Obvious to come. I'm sleepy and have to wake up early tomorrow. Please, be active, let me know what you think of this post and contribute your own ideas and suspicions as well.
Finally after two days of mislynches, the scummiest-acting player in the game has his time come.
Now we have a vote for YH. Not before when Z-Boson took issue with almost everything YH said, but after a vocal townie (Shady) and an almost confirmed townie (Thrawn) have died. Somehow Shady Sands and Thrawn were more scummy looking to Z-Boson than YH for two days, meanwhile a scum YH was shitting up the thread with clutter and opportunistic rolehunting. How is it a bus? Because it YH was as suspicious to Z-Boson for the first two days, he would have voted accordingly. But he NEVER DID. YH left things to pick up all over the place that, in the context of his meta and general playstyle could have been considered null tells. I think it was probably a lot of willful ignorance on everyone's part to let YH get away with madness for so long.
+ Show Spoiler +On August 22 2012 04:41 Z-BosoN wrote:@Stutters He has been fishing roles all game? I don't remember this, can you please find where? The only thing I can recall is him interpreting a dubious thrawn quote to say why he thinks thrawn is blue. You basically said what's been said all game. YH uses WIFOM, is inconsistent, keeps changing his mind without specifying why. This to me is very scummy, as I've made clear for quite some time. But I will one-up this argument, I think I found something that, in my opinion will give a strong case against him.
Case against YourHarryI will not go over again how stupid and confusing and useless his posting is, how that looks scummy, etc. Ladies and gentlemen, the first thing YH says: I am not sure which meta I will choose this game . I am not sure which meta I will choose this game . I am not sure which meta I will choose this game . He clearly indicated that he wants to follow a certain meta. Apparently, he has already decided which one it is. He is thriving on confusion. Look at some of his quotes from previous games: + Show Spoiler +Release, I am not Grush.
I didn't particularly find lazer monkey's post scummy. This is a newbie game. He is simply providing some guidelines on what townies should avoid - since (I assume) that his previous games have been tainted by vanilla towns claiming power roles.
BTW, I am not OMGUSing Jingle. I just find it difficult to understand why he finds me scummy, since I think I explained myself and answered all of his questions. When someone is focusing his accusation on a player based on reasonable evidence, that someone could be town or scum.
But when someone is stubborn about his accusation on a player, even after the accused player adequately explained himself, I think that someone is likely to be scum. Maybe he is not satisfied with my answers. If so, Jingle, please tell me what you still think I am scum.
Here, someone may question whether my initial vote against Hopeless also makes me scummy for above reason. But as I explained, I don't particularly find him scummy and my initial attempt to incite responses from him and others did partially succeed - mostly in the forms of accusations toward me.
##Unvote
##Vote Jingle Release:
I maintain that it was not an OMGUS battle, at least from my perspective. I had valid reason, at least from what little was available at the time, to suspect Jingle. And if Jingle is scum, my quick reconciliation is not necessarily scummy. At best, it's WIFOM. One can argue that scums would be hesitant to dismiss each other's scuminess, in fear that 1) obvious buddying may make both of them suspicious, exactly how you are suspecting both of us 2) other's scum flip will incriminate them.
Either way, my actions on end of day 1 to place the one of the deciding votes on Hopeless (especially when I previously expressed my opinion that I didn't think hopeless was particularly scummy, I could have easily justified my vote against someone else) and my willingness to vote against Jingle now should make me unlikely to be scum.
Also, in regards to miller providing a difficulty for town victory: miller counters mafia role cop and detective is soft countered by miller. Mafia role cop is gone and detective is still alive. So, miller's value to town is at extreme minimum. Of course, if detective was nonexistant, miller would be as good as vanilla townie. The reason why medic shouldn't claim is obvious. Night2, the scum would roleblock medic and nightkill the detective. Medic role claiming does not allow us to gather any additional information on alignment of other players. However, this means that we must come up with a consensus on who we want to lynch way prior to the deadline so that medic does have a chance to roleclaim if somehow he gets picked to be lynched.
The reason for power role claiming immediately if they received the positive result is also evident. This is because what we will do today would be clearly decided: lynch whoever received the positive result. This also allows medic to anonymously protect the powerrole who got the positive result.
The reason for claiming in order is because we don't want two power roles to reveal their identity unless it gives us additional information. This prevents second power role role claiming just in case they targeted the same player at night. I think detective claiming first makes sense, because it is a more important role - so this allows medic to protect him at night. This is some quotes from his previous game as townie. Notice the difference? He still throws information around a bit, but notice how it is toned down and how much more reasonable he seems. One of the first things I have said in this game is that analyzing meta is weak and doesn't constitute arguments. However, YourHarry has been constantly playing the meta game, and even said so himself in the beggining of the game. He has decided he wants to be as confusing as possible, as random, as wishy-washy as he can. Another thing that I noticed is generally not done is analyzing the nk's. Oh, Jhuyt just died, but he was such a strong scum suspect. O well, WIFOM, scum wants us to think that blah blah blah. Not in YourHarry's case. The only consistent thing he's done is be confusing. I'm sure we can all agree with that. I raise now two points: 1) Why would this be the meta to go for a town YourHarry? Isn't it weird how much better his play was as townie in past games? Why would town Harry want to be as confusing as possible? 2) Jhuyt nk was confusing as hell. This entirely fits YH's profile this game. I cannot for the life of me come up with a better reason to kill JHuyt other than just try to confuse town. Since YH right now is confusion in person, this raises an uncanny coincidence. But Z-BosoN! 2) is WIFOM and analyzing meta is weak! Well, imaginary doubting friend, I don't think that this applies here. YH is strictly playing a meta game, and not ONCE did he abandon it. He's drowning in WIFOM, but I doubt that he would have considered this when deciding who a scum YH would want to kill, because up until now, all we've done is analyze the garbage he jams on his keyboard, but not the overall picture. Let's stop wasting time trying to think what a scum Harry would do, and think more about how a scum Harry would act. So there it is folks, I think this makes a lot of sense, and should give you one more powerful reason as to why YH is SCUM!. Think about it and tell me what you guys think. I think this is the best option right now, I can't think of a stronger reason to lynch someone else. ##Vote YourHarry
THEN HE DOES A 180!:
+ Show Spoiler +On August 23 2012 07:58 Z-BosoN wrote:
Well, let's see who is present. All of me, Obvious, you and Darthpunk are present. All of us still have one hour to switch. Are we sure we want to go through with YH? Emotions aside (I've been ranting against him and his posting all game, basically), the more I think about it, the more doubt I have. Especially considering how wishy-washy thrawn also was, and how much circumstantial evidence made him look guilty.
Take back the votes on YH? He doesn't even wait for a consensus and to make sure everyone is around, just balls-out unvotes:
+ Show Spoiler +On August 23 2012 08:25 Z-BosoN wrote:
Well, most certainly one of us is scum, but as far as I know, we agreed to follow suit.
I suggest we all unvote, discuss, and vote again, as we still have 40 minutes. If the scums don't follow suit and don't unvote, it will be clear who they are, they would certainly not risk it.
I don't necessarily agree with this choice. YourHarry has a ton of shit, but he has a lot of pro-town posts. I read Obvious' case and DarthPunk's case on him, and I have to agree, he certainly looks scummy as hell. His play is even more ridiculous than YH.
Then I read my case on YourHarry, and your case again. What obvious said made me retrospect, because the type of evidence YH is getting lynched for is almost identical the type of evidence that thrawn was, happenstance arguments.
YES WE DO HAVE TIME.
I propose this, all of us here now unvote, and if, at 8:50, not all of us are unvoted, we go ahead and vote for YH. By 8:55 all our votes are made, to the same person discussed.
Essentially it is up to you, GK, because without you we won't be able to switch votes, and I strongly feel taht we should. Think about what has been said, and think quickly. Is YH the right choice??
##Unvote
TLDR: The guy who has been laying into YH the entire game has a change of heart just before the deadline. There's no, I repeat, NO town reasoning for this at all.
|
Any last thoughts or clarifications? I kind of rushed that last post so there's a couple of formatting errors that should have been ironed out and my personal commentary was injected in the middle there. I have about an hour left before I'm gone for a few hours.
|
I'm gonna be late for TNA Impact to see this flip so I have something to think about during the commercials and my cardio.
|
I'm crossing my fingers for my own death because I feel pretty useless while suspicion still lingers on me for things I didn't even write.
|
|
|
|
|
See you guys when I get back from the gym!
|
On August 24 2012 12:50 DarthPunk wrote:
Z- Boson mysteriously silent after I explain why his scenario may require four role blockers in the game. Depending on how role-blocks are handled this could be quite damning.
I started to type up some speculation about the composition of the game but I realized that I would just be making an exercise in futility and WIFOM and that's the last thing we need here. While waiting for that response you've requested I'll re-read the goings-on of the past few hours and hopefully something will stick out to me.
|
On August 24 2012 04:14 Stutters695 wrote:
I haven't gotten a RB notification all game. Ditto as in I don't understand the NK on Jhuyt. GK seemed like the obvious lynch from a scum perspective (remove the most voal person) unless they were trying to blue hunt at night which is the only way I can reason it out currently. I figured at the time if they were trying to throw us off I'd be dead because although I've posted a couple of cases no one has really questioned me at all outside of GK informing me Shady was dead because I messed up the formatting in my post and your current question.
Walls of text incoming shortly.
I want my walls of text, Stutters, por favor.
|
Original thoughts on Golbat:
+ Show Spoiler [first evidence post] +On August 20 2012 14:08 Obvious.660 wrote:Thoughts on Golbat, to pass some time here. Stream of consciousness as I read through his filter. Regarding his posting bevavior: having been in the same game (XXII) as Golbat that he has referenced where he was lynched D1 as a power role, I can't help but notice that his posting has gone (relatively) from hero to zero. I realize that this is, in part, a tactic through which he is engaging in some self-preservation behavior which isn't totally off the wall crazy. I did similar in my first game and ended up saying a bunch of crap that got me lynched. I think the town needs the old Golbat right now though. Compare this to YourHarry whose posting habits have carried on from game to game. It just seems like you went from one extreme to the other and it honestly doesn't suit us in terms of getting a better read on you, please try to get into the fray today. If you were posting like you did in XXII I would have seen you for town (saying whatever comes to your mind) and it can't really hurt at this stage of the game to pick it up. Even YourHarry has somehow survived this long with his antics, but that's how I know YH. It would do a lot, at least for me, to see you as town if you would be a bit more aggressive and active. Golbat, you've been on Thrawn's case the entire game. Your first case post against him: + Show Spoiler [golbat analysis pt1] +On August 17 2012 08:21 Golbat wrote:Here's my case on Thrawn, I apologize for the lateness and lurkiness so far, I have been not really paying attention to this game so far because I'm right in the middle of prepping for college and spending time with family and friends I won't be seeing for a while, but I'll try to give this game everything I have when I can. At first, he really plays up how much of a newbie he is, and how he doesn't know anything about playing. He says that he's planning on reading several of the mafia guides in the pregame. But his questions are so simply answered by READING ANY MAFIA GUIDE and or the OP of this thread that it is obvious he did not bother to do any of the reading he claimed. This to me is a clear indicator of someone who wants a simple explanation for their bad play. "Oh sorry i'm just new". I used the new player excuse in XXII and it got me lynched. I'm sure if he had done the reading he would have read "don't just claim newbie lol u will die". That's just one of the things he does that I find to be scummy. Not to rehash other's discussion on this, but he has been sheeping and avoiding making his own reads the entire game as well. from Show nested quote +On August 15 2012 13:52 thrawn2112 wrote:
YourHarry, who do you find most scummy at this exact point in time? to Show nested quote +On August 16 2012 07:11 thrawn2112 wrote:On August 16 2012 05:27 Ochrow wrote:My two cents on Shady: My initial inclination when I see somebody being as aggressive as he is, this coming only from live games not forum, is that they are scum. However, every single time that I have been in this sort of situation and gotten a scum vibe from somebody being overly aggressive I have been wrong. So for me that history has me thinking that that Shady is town, just an incredibly aggressive one. However at the same time I think that he may be a bit overly aggressive and reading too much into people's posts, as he has made two rather strong accusations against Solar and JHyut that I feel are more or less unfounded. On Solar: As I originally said I felt that his play was not at all pro-town but, assuming he is telling the truth about the acting and that he didn't just pull it out of his ass, he has really turned around and is very much giving off a townie feel. On YH: So far I haven't really been able to get much of a read on him. While he was posting one-liners at the beginning, as he said he was actually able to get his point across in them, granted that his point wasn't always a great one to get across (ie Oh I have a secret read but I'm not sharing it). But since his explanation, which to me seems to be entirely understandable, he too is giving off a town feel. As for any reads I have, in most of the games I've played there has been at least one scum that was just purely a lurker, and as such I get a bit of a scum feeling from Archrun. He has only three posts all only a few sentences, long enough to not be pointed out as one-liners but only just. I guess I also get suspicious of any first post that just focuses on O hai thar I'm a townie yay killing scum. While I know everybody is trying to prove themselves as town I just get bad feelings when the substance of somebody's post is: On August 15 2012 10:10 Archrun wrote:
As a Townee, I promote any policy that helps us catch scum, but we must back accusation up with evidence(which this policy should provided) and reason. On top of that in his three posts he doesn't get into what he thinks about who might be scum but is just theorizing or throwing out a soft defense. I may be totally off on here but until he posts a bit more or contributes something of substance I am going to throw out ##FoS ArchrunAs per Solar's question I hope this helps, and if there was any curiosity about the reasoning behind my general consensus post, it seemed like a lot of people were in more or less violent agreement over the Solar issue so I wanted to throw out my understanding of events in the hope that it might lead to shorter and/or fewer posts beating that dead horse. FOS ArchrunArchrun, you have made 3 posts so far and none of them have had anything directly to do with scumhunting. Can you tell us what you think about shady's claims concerning solar, myself, and newharry? Which is the beginning of a really poor case on Archrun based on that he is lurking and provided the least amount of content. And that's pretty much his case. He spends the remainder of the time up until now either asking for other peoples reads or talking about archrun, until joining the shady wagon. He mentions several times how his vote was "not an OMGUS" and then he says this. Show nested quote +On August 17 2012 05:34 thrawn2112 wrote:
Can somebody try to convince me why I shouldn't vote for shady and instead vote for a lurker? I am confident in my vote for shady, but there is still the possibility that he is town and that he made a terrible case. I think it is more likely that he is scum, but if someone can convince me that a specific lurker is a way more likely to be scum then I will change my vote. This has nothing to do with my confidence for reading shady as scum. He's begging people to post something so he can sheep it. It's so far beyond just poor play that I can't really believe he isn't scum. He talks about scumhunting and how everyone else should do it, without ever doing it himself. If that isn't scummy, I don't know what is. I particularly like this last part here. It's like you never even went back and revisited the idea after his Vig claim. Even if you didn't trust his Vig claim 100%, doesn't it make sense that he would want to know who other people thought would make for good vig kill targets? It may not have been the best way to go about getting that information, but in the context of his claim it makes sense to come back to it. Alas, Thrawn's claim didn't resonate with you, and I'm somewhat surprised by that given your history in XXII where you too were a Vig and without a clear target. Of course Thrawn did a better job staying alive to execute it, but you were ironically putting him in a similar situation. The over-aggressive Shady Sands was a more overwhelming factor for D1 here, so it's not completely in Thrawn's hands that he made it through the day. In my eyes this is significant evidence that you may not be thinking like us. You also seem fairly hell-bent on getting YH voted off the island next, so I'm very interested in reading a solid, cohesive case from you on him. Let's say, during the night phase?
Followed up by:
+ Show Spoiler [second case post] +On August 21 2012 15:00 Obvious.660 wrote:I'm definitely in agreement on a Golbat lynch at this point. We'll start with this general contradiction of himself, or more accurately him not matching the portrait of townie traits he is painting: Show nested quote +On August 17 2012 08:21 Golbat wrote:
Here's my case on Thrawn, I apologize for the lateness and lurkiness so far, I have been not really paying attention to this game so far because I'm right in the middle of prepping for college and spending time with family and friends I won't be seeing for a while, but I'll try to give this game everything I have when I can.
Show nested quote +On August 18 2012 17:48 Golbat wrote:
I also really hope that some more of the lurkers start posting. Z-Boson, Ochrow, Jhuyt have yet to post today to my knowledge. Show nested quote +On August 18 2012 17:54 Golbat wrote:
EBWOP: Only Ochrow hasn't posted today. My apologies. Z-Boson posted right after the flip, so that just barely counts. Solar and Jhyut have posted. This is followed up by an absurdly long period of time without any contribution in the past couple of days and his last (very ironic) post: Show nested quote +On August 19 2012 07:30 Golbat wrote:
You could probably assume that I didn't pay close attention to the first 24hours of the game. Because I didn't. I had forgotten I even signed up until like halfway through Day1.
Why are YOU trying to make it sound like I have no clue what's going on at all? I know exactly what to make of that.
Further evidence he is barely paying attention to the thread even when he is here: Show nested quote +On August 18 2012 10:36 Golbat wrote:On August 18 2012 09:27 Golbat wrote:
I still maintain my case on thrawn. He and shady are my two biggest scum reads at the moment. I'll have to re read GK's case on oochrow, and then OO's filter and then see how I feel about that. But I feel pretty safe right now in voting for Thrawn.
##Vote Thrawn
also, ##FoS YourHarry
His play has been the flippiest and the floppiest. That usually means intentionally sowing confusion in the thread, as people have to follow his logic back and forth to make any sense of what he says. Shit, I totally meant harry. I don't even know why I typed shady.
Quite possibly his most difficult-to-read response to something in the thread that just about begs you to not try to read it more than once because of how he embedded his commentary. Show nested quote +On August 18 2012 16:48 Golbat wrote:The bold is my response, the bold/underline is yourharry's words. On August 18 2012 16:12 YourHarry wrote:@Darth While it is true that I may have briefly mentioned my town read on Archrun on Day 1, when deciding to lynch between Archrun and Shady, at the time it was only a mild town read based on the fact that explanations given by Thrawn made logical sense to me. After Archrun's post outlining what seemed to be his scum plan of action, Thrawn was indeed almost as good as confirmed townie in my mind. And this was due to my thinking that Archrun was scum. But I don't think I ever claimed that he is a confirmed townie. I did say that he is a confirmed townie if Archrun flipped scum, which he didn't. Recent postings make me think that Thrawn and Golbat are on the same team. This post stands out: On August 18 2012 15:10 Golbat wrote:On August 18 2012 12:55 goodkarma wrote:
@YourHarry:
Any suggestions as to who this someone else is that we should lynch?
My first thoughts are either Orchrow or you.
You seem to be very interested in keeping thrawn alive as long as possible... I suggest you start making some meaningful suggestions as to who you feel looks scummier. And it would also be helpful if you commented on people's most recent cases against thrawn, Orchrow, and yourself instead of continuing to strive to keep Thrawn alive.
There are situations here where the vigi still shouldn't claim. Like what if there is an sk, but the vigi hasn't used his shot yet? A vigi counter claim here would be terrible, as he could wind up rb'ed by scum and NK'ed before he can do anything.
And if we wait, who's to say town doesn't get a successful medic save or rb? Or that scum or the sk (if he exists) doesn't just sit back and do nothing for one night? There's a few different ways that there could be an sk but fewer than two night kills.
Waiting achieves nothing. My read, and the read of several of us here, is that thrawn is scum. It's time for him to go. Read through the case points against him, and show us why you feel he might be town. It's more productive than your WIFOM defense of thrawn you're presenting now. I am in agreement that we should just lynch thrawn here. We seem to have caught a scum or even two, I think if thrawn flips scum then YH is almost certainly scum. Obviously, from my perspective, this only sounds like Golbat is trying to mislynch me knowing that Thrawn will flip scum. I see nowhere in that post where I even hint at knowing anything. I simply said that if thrawn flips scum, the guy who is defending him is likely to be scum as well. That guy is you, and you've already been marked out as scummy by several people, including myself. There are other two players who suspect me of being scum with Thrawn: Darth and GK. But despite my previous suspicion of GK, their outlining of cases actually make some logical sense right now and they seem to be actually trying to scum hunt. (And I admit that I may look scummy right now for flip flopping my vote and trying to defend Thrawn). On the other hand, Golbat suddenly shows up and basically sheeps other people's cases. Only thing that seems a bit weird is that he is one of the first players to cast a vote against Thrawn, when day 2 opened, after Darth. However, this may be mafia QT planned action to encourage Golbat to bus against Thrawn - one who is likely to be suspected anyway due to Day 1 mislynch of Shady. False. You and Thrawn seem to be suffering from the same inability to acknowledge my posts outlining my reasons for believing thrawn is scum. Possibly a scum tactic to cast suspicion on me? More importantly, Thrawn suddenly suspects Golbat, because he is lurking. Even though there are other lurkers, he specifically picks out Golbat just because he recently posted. Is this not a legitimate thing for a cornered scum to do? While I agree that pressuring lurkers is a good strategy, Thrawn did not have any interaction with Golbat... but all of the sudden, he singles him out. Thrawn at this point knows that his lynch is imminent, and that there is nothing he can do to avoid flipping red. This to me seems like his attempt to distance himself from his scum partner in Golbat: On August 18 2012 15:40 thrawn2112 wrote:On August 18 2012 15:22 goodkarma wrote:@Thrawn: On August 18 2012 15:04 thrawn2112 wrote:On August 18 2012 14:52 goodkarma wrote:On August 18 2012 14:35 thrawn2112 wrote:On August 18 2012 14:29 goodkarma wrote:
A cornered scum would have no problem lying about his role to get out of a lynch, and that's what I see is the case with Thrawn. Like stutters said, a scum role claiming vig when he doesn't know who the real vig is would be pretty bad play because the scum would be leaving himself open to a counter claim when he has no idea who the vig is. The problem with this logic is that no one knows if there's an sk + Show Spoiler +(except the sk, if he does exist) . So, there may not even be a vigilante... The scum player wouldn't know this. He would be gambling on there not being a vig.And you felt it was necessary to inquire if there could be two vigis, a setup that though possible is fairly unlikely. It feels like you're already trying to find an escape route if you get caught up in your lie. I asked if there could be 2 vigs because I was planning on asking for a vig counter claim. Since there could be two I decided asking for a counter claim was a bad idea because if there is another vig and he counter claimed then I would look pretty bad. So then you would agree it's possible, that a scum player would make a vig role claim in your shoes? Honestly, we could argue to death your vigi. role claim, but it's only a waste of time. I want to hear what you have to say about the case points currently against you. Read up on my case on you, which is posted right before the day 2 post. And tell me where in that case I'm wrong about you. I'm tired of hearing role claims and WIFOM from you. The longer you stall in providing an actual defense, the guiltier you're looking. You are right that there is no evidence in either direction to prove or disprove my vig claim. I only vig claimed to give an explanation as to how things could have worked out the way they did if I am town. I'm going to respond to your post, but it is VERY long and references tons of other posts all of which are very long so don't expect a response for quite awhile. I am also busy scumhunting but this is having to be done on my own because I don't have any credibility right now. Just to give you an idea of what leads I'm going after, here is my interpretation of what's going on. So far 3 town players have been killed/lynched. The scum I suspected (archrun and shady) of being behind my D1 lynch case turned out to be town. While this is going on there are a few players that have posted very, very little content. My conclusion is that either the scum team are doing an extremely good job of hiding their actions or that there is at least one, if not probably more than 1 scum among the lurkers. I am currently looking at Gobalt because his latest contribution was a vote for me and his only motivation for that vote was that he agreed with what others have said. Since the shady lynching he hasn't contributed anything beyond the post I pointed out in my post before this one and I would like to hear what he has to say. There are other lurkers too but since he is in the thread right now we had better get him posting while we can. Taken together, I think this strongly suggests that Thrawn and Golbat are scums together.
And finally, there was no response to my poke last time so I'll just quote it here to add to the case against him: Show nested quote +On August 20 2012 14:08 Obvious.660 wrote:Thoughts on Golbat, to pass some time here. Stream of consciousness as I read through his filter. Regarding his posting bevavior: having been in the same game (XXII) as Golbat that he has referenced where he was lynched D1 as a power role, I can't help but notice that his posting has gone (relatively) from hero to zero. I realize that this is, in part, a tactic through which he is engaging in some self-preservation behavior which isn't totally off the wall crazy. I did similar in my first game and ended up saying a bunch of crap that got me lynched. I think the town needs the old Golbat right now though. Compare this to YourHarry whose posting habits have carried on from game to game. It just seems like you went from one extreme to the other and it honestly doesn't suit us in terms of getting a better read on you, please try to get into the fray today. If you were posting like you did in XXII I would have seen you for town (saying whatever comes to your mind) and it can't really hurt at this stage of the game to pick it up. Even YourHarry has somehow survived this long with his antics, but that's how I know YH. It would do a lot, at least for me, to see you as town if you would be a bit more aggressive and active. Golbat, you've been on Thrawn's case the entire game. Your first case post against him: + Show Spoiler [golbat analysis pt1] +On August 17 2012 08:21 Golbat wrote:Here's my case on Thrawn, I apologize for the lateness and lurkiness so far, I have been not really paying attention to this game so far because I'm right in the middle of prepping for college and spending time with family and friends I won't be seeing for a while, but I'll try to give this game everything I have when I can. At first, he really plays up how much of a newbie he is, and how he doesn't know anything about playing. He says that he's planning on reading several of the mafia guides in the pregame. But his questions are so simply answered by READING ANY MAFIA GUIDE and or the OP of this thread that it is obvious he did not bother to do any of the reading he claimed. This to me is a clear indicator of someone who wants a simple explanation for their bad play. "Oh sorry i'm just new". I used the new player excuse in XXII and it got me lynched. I'm sure if he had done the reading he would have read "don't just claim newbie lol u will die". That's just one of the things he does that I find to be scummy. Not to rehash other's discussion on this, but he has been sheeping and avoiding making his own reads the entire game as well. from Show nested quote +On August 15 2012 13:52 thrawn2112 wrote:
YourHarry, who do you find most scummy at this exact point in time? to Show nested quote +On August 16 2012 07:11 thrawn2112 wrote:On August 16 2012 05:27 Ochrow wrote:My two cents on Shady: My initial inclination when I see somebody being as aggressive as he is, this coming only from live games not forum, is that they are scum. However, every single time that I have been in this sort of situation and gotten a scum vibe from somebody being overly aggressive I have been wrong. So for me that history has me thinking that that Shady is town, just an incredibly aggressive one. However at the same time I think that he may be a bit overly aggressive and reading too much into people's posts, as he has made two rather strong accusations against Solar and JHyut that I feel are more or less unfounded. On Solar: As I originally said I felt that his play was not at all pro-town but, assuming he is telling the truth about the acting and that he didn't just pull it out of his ass, he has really turned around and is very much giving off a townie feel. On YH: So far I haven't really been able to get much of a read on him. While he was posting one-liners at the beginning, as he said he was actually able to get his point across in them, granted that his point wasn't always a great one to get across (ie Oh I have a secret read but I'm not sharing it). But since his explanation, which to me seems to be entirely understandable, he too is giving off a town feel. As for any reads I have, in most of the games I've played there has been at least one scum that was just purely a lurker, and as such I get a bit of a scum feeling from Archrun. He has only three posts all only a few sentences, long enough to not be pointed out as one-liners but only just. I guess I also get suspicious of any first post that just focuses on O hai thar I'm a townie yay killing scum. While I know everybody is trying to prove themselves as town I just get bad feelings when the substance of somebody's post is: On August 15 2012 10:10 Archrun wrote:
As a Townee, I promote any policy that helps us catch scum, but we must back accusation up with evidence(which this policy should provided) and reason. On top of that in his three posts he doesn't get into what he thinks about who might be scum but is just theorizing or throwing out a soft defense. I may be totally off on here but until he posts a bit more or contributes something of substance I am going to throw out ##FoS ArchrunAs per Solar's question I hope this helps, and if there was any curiosity about the reasoning behind my general consensus post, it seemed like a lot of people were in more or less violent agreement over the Solar issue so I wanted to throw out my understanding of events in the hope that it might lead to shorter and/or fewer posts beating that dead horse. FOS ArchrunArchrun, you have made 3 posts so far and none of them have had anything directly to do with scumhunting. Can you tell us what you think about shady's claims concerning solar, myself, and newharry? Which is the beginning of a really poor case on Archrun based on that he is lurking and provided the least amount of content. And that's pretty much his case. He spends the remainder of the time up until now either asking for other peoples reads or talking about archrun, until joining the shady wagon. He mentions several times how his vote was "not an OMGUS" and then he says this. Show nested quote +On August 17 2012 05:34 thrawn2112 wrote:
Can somebody try to convince me why I shouldn't vote for shady and instead vote for a lurker? I am confident in my vote for shady, but there is still the possibility that he is town and that he made a terrible case. I think it is more likely that he is scum, but if someone can convince me that a specific lurker is a way more likely to be scum then I will change my vote. This has nothing to do with my confidence for reading shady as scum. He's begging people to post something so he can sheep it. It's so far beyond just poor play that I can't really believe he isn't scum. He talks about scumhunting and how everyone else should do it, without ever doing it himself. If that isn't scummy, I don't know what is. I particularly like this last part here. It's like you never even went back and revisited the idea after his Vig claim. Even if you didn't trust his Vig claim 100%, doesn't it make sense that he would want to know who other people thought would make for good vig kill targets? It may not have been the best way to go about getting that information, but in the context of his claim it makes sense to come back to it. Alas, Thrawn's claim didn't resonate with you, and I'm somewhat surprised by that given your history in XXII where you too were a Vig and without a clear target. Of course Thrawn did a better job staying alive to execute it, but you were ironically putting him in a similar situation. The over-aggressive Shady Sands was a more overwhelming factor for D1 here, so it's not completely in Thrawn's hands that he made it through the day. In my eyes this is significant evidence that you may not be thinking like us. You also seem fairly hell-bent on getting YH voted off the island next, so I'm very interested in reading a solid, cohesive case from you on him. Let's say, during the night phase? Never did get that night post from him... Summary: My read is that Golbat is scum, intentionally lurking and posting in a manner that deflects any real attention from being on him when there are more active scummy-looking players in the game. The problem with this strategy is that now that we're at a point where lurkers seem to be the best option, he isn't giving us much else to go off of other than that he's still avoiding attention and that is precisely the kind of behavior that will get people in trouble at this stage of the game. ##VOTE: Golbat
Golbat made my short list (stutters is no longer on the quoted list):
+ Show Spoiler [shortlist] +On August 22 2012 11:09 Obvious.660 wrote:
Well. I went through the people who I felt most strongly were town to the least town and I came up with this list by process of elimination. As already stated, the lurking is killing this town. We're past 24 hours of today's day portion of the cycle and still haven't heard much from quite a few people. Golbat is on his way to a modkill. YourHarry is presumably making his case since he checked in a little while ago but it has been some time and we have heard nothing yet.
In no particular order:
YourHarry
Z-Boson
Stutters
Golbat
At this point I don't even think it can hurt me to speculate that there is only 1 hyper-active scum in this game. I speculate Golbat is going down quietly as scum. So far the only person I think I saw mentioned to be defending Golbat was Thrawn, who is now dead? If anyone else remember people defending Golbat and wants to chime in that would be great. So essentially I have a coin-flip between Stutters and Z-Boson from my POV, based on process of elimination of who I get the feeling is town and who is not.
Updated shortlist is, in this order:
Z-Boson
Golbat
SolarSail
With Golbat being pushed and voting for himself, I'm now hesitant to go after the easiest guy. No explanation for his self vote. If he's doing what I did elsewhere he's just trying to bait some people into the easy vote. Zero fucking context which is enraging. He's my tomorrow vote.
Today, I would rather vote Z-Boson.
##VOTE: Z-Boson
|
The fact that the NK didn't go through is not solid evidence that there was a successful roleblock. It could have also been withheld to make us believe that a roleblock was successful. False sense of security. Just a thought.
|
On August 25 2012 14:12 goodkarma wrote:
@Obvious:
Can you explain to me why, with Golbat as your second scum read, you can't vote for him this day cycle? We will be getting to Z-Boson tomorrow, but I'd like to play this game extra-safe. All of town should still unite behind one candidate, and I still strongly recommend that candidate be Golbat. Especially since, although very unlikely, there is a small (like abysmally small) possibility that Z-Boson could be telling the truth and we'd be losing a role-blocker.
The explanation that Golbat is scum is guesswork.
The explanation that Z-Boson is scum is that no NK occured.
If you think it's unlikely that scum would withhold the NK, then Z-Boson is guaranteed scum.
Why take the risk? We lynch scum here.
|
It's also clear that Golbat isn't interested in playing. He can extend us the courtesy of yielding to a town victory once his scum partner is lynched without compromising his team's prime directive. If the remaining team is Z-Boson/Golbat and Z-Boson is dead, Golbat can surrender and we win.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
