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Shady, I don't understand why you still believe Jingle to be scummier than alan after the way the lynch yesterday went. I don't think you can just brush off DarthPunk's defense of Jingle to be WIFOM.
DarthPunk started and continued to defend Jingle throughout the entire time starting at the moment that Jingle made himself suspicious. He even defended Jingle when it was almost sure that we were going to lynch him.
Now why would a scum DarthPunk do that? There are two possibilites:
1. Jingle is scum. DarthPunk would be trying to save his scum buddy. But why bother trying when all other players have unanimously voted for Jingle? Bussing should be the correct move, especially when there is no chance that he could save scum Jingle? I believe they did not bus Zork because at that time Zork's case didn't gained momentum but Jingle basically had one foot in the grave already.
2. Jingle is town. DarthPunk would be trying to gain town cred by repeatedly defending town Jingle as afterwards he could just point back at the discussion and say: I was right, Ange pushed for the Jingle mislynch and therefore should be lynched next. Scum know the alignments which fits the fact that DarthPunk was really stubborn in the defense but yet could not give us any good explanation for why he had a town read on Jingle.
Please think about both scenarios. While the first one is indeed possible, it would be more than just supotimal. It would be suicidal. Being the only one to defend a scum when the entire town wants to lynch him will absolutely make you the next lynch target. On the contrary, the second one is far more probable and fits perfectly.
Jingle's chances of being scum are like 0,00000000001% now.
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Alright, Ange777--fair enough. I'll go with an Alan133 lynch if he doesn't show up with a medic roleclaim by end of Day.
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But if Alan flips town, I'd want us to lynch Jingle, since it's not outside the realm of possibility that Darthpunk was reverse bussing jingle once he became the top two target.
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## Vote Alan133 (until--or unless--he claims medic)
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Anyhow, I am eager to hear counterarguments from Alan, Jingle, and aRyuu, since you three are the likeliest lynch candidates over the next two days.
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Hey there, looks like I am going to post some defences.
@Ange
1. Pushing for a mislynch while soft-defending the lynch candidate.
There is no defences for this, I indeed pushed for a mislynch on Promethelax and Mordanis, and that's it. My soft-defending "lynch candidates" were those in my eyes were bad case, or cases that I do not agree with. For instances, Mordanis' early cases for voting Kei, Jingle's tunneling on you and so on/fourth.
2. Subtly implying that his scum buddy is not as scummy as the other lynch candidate and therefore should not be voted first.
And many others when there is a list of lynch candidates. I have explained this before.
3. Bussing his scum buddy when all hopes are lost to survive the next lynch himself.
If you think my stance on DarthPunk was wish-washy, I do hope you actually followed my case against him WAY before the one that I said I will keep my vote on Jingle. I logically deduced DarthPunk must be scum, based on one single post on aRyujin's filter: he was kicking MrMedic out way early in the cycle, and the other Mordanis vote was either me or DarthPunk. I don't know saying: "Jingle and DarthPunk are the two scum. Lynch either of them is fine by me."
@Shady
I don't know what is with the claim medic thing or die, because I am not. If you want to waste a lynch on me, it is fine, but the game does not end there.
I will be busy for the day, will be replying to any more cases against me much later, and add my own. I am not, but if you all are set to lynch me, please look at the other scenarios where I am not the scum. The game will go on after I flip.
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EBWOP:
I don't know how by saying: "Jingle and DarthPunk are the two scum. Lynch either of them is fine by me."is wishy-washy
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GK where are you? This could very well be the final lynch of the game, get in here and contribute!
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So it looks like Shady's current suspects are: Jingle, Alan, and aRyuujin. I've weighed in on all of them once last day cycle, but quite a lot has happened since then.
Ange brings up a good point about Jingle. I'm going to have to look back to how far back Darth was defending Jingle to confirm, though. I hesitate to drop the case against Jingle based on this one point alone though. As Ange has already pointed out, there are both town and scum motivations for this play. One BIG assumption that's being made in her arguement is that scum is going to play this game optimally. Looking at Zork's actions, I don't think this is going to be a sure thing, and there's more than the "0,00000000001%" chance that Jingle is scum. I will be looking more in-depth into the Jingle situation tonight, but I'm hesitant to just forget his very scummy gameplay from just a day cycle ago.
aRyuujin's posting for yesterday was an EXPLOSION of activity relative to the entirety of his posting history this game. It feels a little suspicious that he would just suddenly get so active in the game at such a pivotal time. To be fair, though, all his activity went into lobbying for voting for Darthpunk, who was GF... But if he were to bus, all we'd have to look at is his rehashings of arguements from earlier days, and all his case posts from last day cycle against a now-confirmed scum. I believe if he is scum, from what he did last day cycle he has done a good job of removing just enough suspicion from himself to potentially survive the rest of the game...
But there is one thing that both Jingle and aRyuujin have in common: their play has been incredibly inconsistent, to the point of having "I'm scum" arrow signs over their heads. But looking at Alan, his play has been far more consistent. But his viewpoints have also been far more sheepish. He has "blended in" with town to the point of being like a chameleon. I will be looking at some of his posts, and providing some of my input as to why I feel he is a good pick for today's lynch.
First, let's look at his policy on day one, where he says:
On July 27 2012 12:46 alan133 wrote:
@My stance on Day 1 Lynch
I am strongly against day 1 no lynch. Scums starts with an information advantage while townies starts without a clue. I believe by pushing a lynch can lead to more clues (e.g. vote pattern like Shady mentioned). The best outcome, of course, is to get a scum kill, but as long as we don't mislynch a blue, it would still fairly benefit town overall.
Notice the special mention of vote pattern. Also notice that he was not one of the people to vote for Golbat on Day 1.
Another mention of policy that stood out to me:
On July 27 2012 19:44 alan133 wrote:
@Ange777
Mind you I am a paranoid person when it comes to playing Mafia, so if you're asking me what do I think, I would say Mordanis appears to be more scummy to me, but I also read Golbat's play as slightly scummy. However I did not go after Golbat lynch because Mordanis is after Golbat, and I don't see both Mordanis and Golbat being scums together. Hence I logically assume Golbat's is a townie playing badly. (Ignoring WIFOM/bussing)
So before even starting to lay out his point of view on Mordanis and Golbat, he tries to discredit himself by calling himself paranoid. There is no townie motivation for this, but there certainly is the scum motivation of wanting to stay out of the spotlight. He then goes on to say that Mordanis and Golbat both look scummy to him, but he's picking Mordanis as scum solely because he looks "scummier" to him right now. In other words, since people had brought up cases for both Mordanis and Golbat at the time, he is acknowledging they both look scummy while being wishy-washy on both. And this is by no means the only spot he is wishy-washy. He was kind enough to make TL;DR's on most his stances, making them easy to pick out from his filter:
On July 27 2012 23:46 alan133 wrote:
-snip-
TL;DR I am indifferent about Shady's alignment
-snip-
TL;DR I am not comfortable with lynching Golbat
-snip-
TL;DR I think Mordanis is the best lynch candidate right now
Also, I would like to call out MrMedic, Obvs and aRyuujin. While I am not saying these three people must be scum, I hope they contribute more so we can hear more from them.
So he believes Mordanis is the best lynch candidate day one. Okay, but then he says:
On July 28 2012 20:42 alan133 wrote:
Shady
-snip-
TL:DR I am slightly inclined to believe he is Scum.
-snip-
TL:DR I am against lynching Golbat.
-snip-
TL:DR I am swayed to believe Mordanis is less of a scum, I am not a big fan of lynching him right now
-snip-
That said, I would like to commit my vote to:
##vote: Shady_Sands
In other words, he decides to vote for the candidate he's only slightly inclined to believe is scum. Very wishy-washy. And it could be argued that from a scum motivation, he is well aware that there will be heavy scrutiny of the vote pattern for the innocent (Golbat), and he wants to stay away from the fallout.
Continue to day 2, alan has his first strong stance:
On July 31 2012 04:20 alan133 wrote:
-snip-
TL:DR Shady Sands looks very scummy - I believe he will flip red
But then...:
+ Show Spoiler +On August 01 2012 04:12 alan133 wrote:Votes are extremely sparse, and it is supposed to be 4 hours until lynch time? I was going through Zorkmid's and Goodkarma's filter since they seems to be the other lynch candidates. @Zorkmid I personally am not a big fan of his sudden disappearance. He later reappears twice: once to post one case on Golbat and Mordanis each using arguments that were mostly already laid out by other players, another one is to vote Golbat. His day 2 post were much better. There are more reads, but he rarely follows up. His "hostile" reaction when pressured reminded me too much of a mislynch that I am partially responsible for. Someone reacted hostilely towards a case against me that include personal attacks. I recognize this as a scum trait and posted another case on him because of it later- then he flipped town. I am incline to think this is somehow a townie trait: Dismissing WIFOM, I assume scum would be more cautious about his/her case and would want to maintain a "healthy" relations towards other players. TL:DR I am not a big fan of lynching Zork right now, but I will keep tab on him@Goodkarma My impression on him was that he has a stance on lurkers and seems like he plays to get rid of them. I don't see his posts as "trying to create noise for town". He did state his policy clearly and it does not betray the way he approaches the game in day 1. I have a null read on day 2. That is because he is mostly defending himself against people who build cases on him based on his publicly announced lynch policy. While I personally disagree with focusing on lurkers when there are already candidates out there, his case on Promethelax was not only based on his policy, but has shifted to actual scum hunting play. However, I am vary of "friendly" posts like these: + Show Spoiler +@alan:
Thanks so much for this advice! This is exactly the kind I needed to hear. My concern with giving multiple suspects was more along the lines of what if one of those people is guilty and the other two are innocent? The guilty party has the strongest scum read. Wouldn't giving multiple suspects just make it easier for the mafia to get behind one of the two innocent lynch targets, than if you stuck with the person you consider most suspicious? But you suggest from actual in-game experience that only giving one player may be even more damaging when you have multiple scum reads... I can follow your line of reasoning, and can agree with it. I understand that Prox is looking for more transparency from me, and I feel that presenting an arguement like alan's would have been more helpful than tossing his vote. The reason for keeping my suspects "mysterious" is this fear that the mafia can use that list against town. While I don't think I played poorly other than messing up names twice and have poor grammar/general language skills, and last time I check I am not a 100% confirmed townie, and only scums know a person's alignment. I am not pushing a case based on one silly speculation, but If you're town sided, letting your guard down does not help. TL;DR I don't find goodkarma as scummy as some of you has paint him in, and I don't fancy lynching him@Shady Sands I saw your post about your brother. I hope everything's fine. I would like you to look at my case against you, and post a defence when you are available. However, you can ignore the argument where I said you were lurking in day 2 as it seems like you have a legit reason. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=353315¤tpage=27#525That said, I believe Shady Sands is still scummy based on his day 1 play. I will look at Promethelax's filter because it seems like he is set to be lynched. @Promethelax I don't have a deep impression on him. Back in my mind he posted a lot of fluffs but I didn't pay much attention to him since he seems to agree with my reads (at least about Shady) The people he has a scum read in two in-game days is Shady and Goodkarma. That's about 5-6 post spent in about He stays away from Mordanis and Golbat's cases dismissing them as "two player OMGUSing each other". I have to admit Golbat's play was not the best, what makes him so sure about their alignment? I find Promethelax a bit "too trusting". Ryu was posting in haik.. poems. I did not comment on it as he stopped pretty soon. I believe scums could easily twist town Ryu's words while scum Ryu can twist around his own words to cover his slips. Promethelax seems to be okay with it. Also, I couldn't help but notice his buddying up Keir. He claims he has an explanation for that and will post it before the end of night 2. I don't buy it. As far as I know he was the one who was after Goodkarma hiding his "mystery suspect". I know this is in different context, but I believe having a "mystery reason" to be "revealed" after the day lynch (so don't lynch me) is just as bad. I know other players has mentioned it, but the "town ring" thing he posted seemed very suggestive. He went so far as to dismiss it as a joke, which I strongly dislike. I believe making jokes are bad, it leaves up a lot of room for interpretation, and a scum player can always claim they were joking about something that said which is scummy. I deem Promethelax's passive lurking, non committal cases, friendly attitude and general bad play to be very scummy, in fact, reminds me a lot of the last scum that we never caught in my last game. ##vote: Promethelax
So, in summary: alan's never been sure lynching anyone's a good idea, is willing to go with a "slight scum read" on day one to change his vote to the minority and avoid suspicion, and is willing to change to Prox on day two last minute after his strong scum read on Shady. His reasoning for voting Prox is rehashings of stuff that was already said of his behavior, and his vote makes sense from a scum perspective since it was uncertain the lynch majority would be secured. An innocent lynched would obviously be far better than a no-lynch for scum. And this is just up to day two...
He does later try to justify this last minute switch to Prox., saying he didn't have time to fully explain it. I'm not fully satisfied with his explanation though, especially because it required prodding to get this from him when it was clearly an important part of his explanation for why he voted as he did. In my opinion, his vote timing has been too convenient for me to rule out it wasn't scum motivated, especially when he mentions the lack of a vote count while writing his Prox. vote post. His after-the-fact explanation is given below:
+ Show Spoiler +On August 02 2012 13:14 alan133 wrote:
GG Kei.
@Shady Sands
Shady is confirmed Mason. His "Kei's Will" post is minutes after the day post, so I doubt he could write all that up while molding it to fit Kei's post history in that short time.
@goodkarma
I'll lightly comment on my vote on Promethelax over Shady day 2:
I backed off Shady after I am convinced that Promethelax is scum. My biggest problem with Shady is his non-existence Day 2 presence and his sudden change of view of Mordanis. Later he came back with a (I assume valid) reason that I have little doubts of, which took away some of the weight in my case.
I did not pay much attention on Promethelax until that one post. I spent a long time writing his case and it convinced me he was scummier. Look at my case on him for clarification. Mind you it took around 2 hours for me to come out with all those, and lynch time is extremely close, so I made no mention of why he is the better lynch target in there.
Current Situation
It sucks when everyone I have a read on flips town, or is a confirmed townie. I will need to reset my reads and do a reassessment of everyone based on what we have now. I believe we have enough information so it should be much easier to pin point a scum today.
He also seems to not be very invested in the game, as he has mistaken names in making case points on two separate occasions. This could be true as scum or town, but he has posted enough in my opinion that this feels more likely to be a mistake made by scum, with no interest in real scum-hunting, quickly trying to say enough to get by.
On July 31 2012 04:20 alan133 wrote:
-snip-
I've mistaken two players twice, and in one of them I am EBWOP-ing for mistaken a player for another. I apologize for playing this poorly, I will be more careful next time.
Alan has a consistent history of being wishy-washy about others, and has been very quick to jump from people he has a strong scum read on onto a different bandwaggon with what I feel is not enough justification if he were truly town.
Between what I've found and Ange's case, I feel there is enough there to vote for alan. Of the three, his actions seem to best fit a scum that is trying to play intelligently by blending in.
However, I will also say that Jingle and aRyuujin both have strongly scummy characterstics about them (that I have previously described...). I can't help but feel that their cases of inactivity has hurt town to the point of making this a bit coinflippy. Neither of them have done enough to establish their innocence to keep them off my list of potential candidates for tomorrow's vote if alan doesn't flip red. It's not entirely Jingle's fault in the former case, but it is aRyuujin's fault in the latter. While his surge of activity certainly helped the cause, I can't help but feel that town's situation would be much stronger if he had spoken up more earlier.
##Vote: alan133
I look forward to seeing what Alan has to say about my case points.
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@Shady:
I'm here, but I had a pretty lengthy case write-up. Took a while to write. I'll be around the next few hours and actively following the thread. So if you, or anyone else for that matter (especially alan) have anything to comment on for my case feel free to let me know. And of course, if I have anything else to add I'll chime in.
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On August 08 2012 11:16 goodkarma wrote:
@Shady:
I'm here, but I had a pretty lengthy case write-up. Took a while to write. I'll be around the next few hours and actively following the thread. So if you, or anyone else for that matter (especially alan) have anything to comment on for my case feel free to let me know. And of course, if I have anything else to add I'll chime in.
Got it, I'm reading through it.
Now time for aRyuujin to pipe up.
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I honestly don't know what to say. If you guys are actually considering me as scum after the whole DP incident...
Without me there, I'd say there was 100% of no DP lynch. Why would scum me set fire to DP now? Jingle wouldve been lynched if not for me and ange. Theres no reason to bus DP before mislynching jingle...
@gk- seems however well i play, you just have a grudge against me or something. Im starting to get a teensy bit suspicious of you again, but alan is just really scummy and maybe you once got picked on by a guy named aRyuujin so you're taking it out on me. + Show Spoiler +i kid, i kid. But seriously, i could be the best town ever and youd still make up some wifom bullshit
Anyway, I'm voting alan. See my big post for the main reasons, as well as myecent follow up ish po
## Vote Alan113
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So right now, other than JingleHell, everyone has voted Alan. We have enough for a lynch now.
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@Shady: For the 0,0000000001% chance that Alan flips green I'd be fine with lynching Jingle next.
@alan:
On August 08 2012 10:36 alan133 wrote:
Hey there, looks like I am going to post some defences.
@Ange
1. Pushing for a mislynch while soft-defending the lynch candidate.
There is no defences for this, I indeed pushed for a mislynch on Promethelax and Mordanis, and that's it. My soft-defending "lynch candidates" were those in my eyes were bad case, or cases that I do not agree with. For instances, Mordanis' early cases for voting Kei, Jingle's tunneling on you and so on/fourth.
2. Subtly implying that his scum buddy is not as scummy as the other lynch candidate and therefore should not be voted first.
And many others when there is a list of lynch candidates. I have explained this before.
3. Bussing his scum buddy when all hopes are lost to survive the next lynch himself.
If you think my stance on DarthPunk was wish-washy, I do hope you actually followed my case against him WAY before the one that I said I will keep my vote on Jingle. I logically deduced DarthPunk must be scum, based on one single post on aRyujin's filter: he was kicking MrMedic out way early in the cycle, and the other Mordanis vote was either me or DarthPunk. I don't know saying: "Jingle and DarthPunk are the two scum. Lynch either of them is fine by me."
@Shady
I don't know what is with the claim medic thing or die, because I am not. If you want to waste a lynch on me, it is fine, but the game does not end there.
I will be busy for the day, will be replying to any more cases against me much later, and add my own. I am not, but if you all are set to lynch me, please look at the other scenarios where I am not the scum. The game will go on after I flip.
Your defense is poor. First of all, the three points you quoted were all in regard to the DarthPunk lynch situation. So I was talking about you trying to push the Jingle lynch while stating that DarthPunk should be scum but is not more scummy than Jingle. About you giving Jingle some town cred and accusing DarthPunk in the same post as confirming that your vote stays on Jingle. You (intentionally?) misunderstood this in my accusations and gave some general excuses.
You claim that through logical conclusion you deduced that DarthPunk had to be the last scum. Please tell me how? Why had it to be DarthPunk? I did a Crtl+F search through your filter and could not find anything of you on DarthPunk prior to that post. What made you think he is suspicious in the first place? Why not goodkarma or Obvious (who was still alive at the time of your post)? No, this is not you deducing who is scum, this is a poor try at last minute bussing.
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I don't think there's a way out of today's lynch, and given that many post, I think I should concede. I am NOT a scum.
@Ange
So I was talking about you trying to push the Jingle lynch while stating that DarthPunk should be scum but is not more scummy than Jingle.
Look at the time of the post. I have clearly stated I could not find anything any particular scumslip going through his (kind of) huge filter at that point in time. If he is scum, there should be one slip or two given his bold play. I did mention the countless times of him trying to defend Zorkmid, which I think is enough based on my logic below:
You claim that through logical conclusion you deduced that DarthPunk had to be the last scum. Please tell me how?
I thought I explained it cleared enough. I considered both remaining scum must be in the Mordanis lynch group. This is based on the vote timing of all players who voted for Mordanis prior to Shady's vote switch.
Scum group: Me, DP, Jingle, aRyu
Condition: Me is not scum. Jingle and aRyu can't both be scum.
Possible outcome: Jingle/Darth or aRyu/Darth
I don't know why it is so hard to follow, perhaps I should worded it more clearly. Also, if you're asking me why if I think Darth was 100% scum but did not switch votes to him, my answer: I think Jingle's play is very scummy and is almost certain to flip scum.
About you giving Jingle some town cred and accusing DarthPunk in the same post as confirming that your vote stays on Jingle
Me giving Jingle "town credit" was a sarcastic statement. Perhaps I should include a sarcastic tag when I say something like "Jingle's recent play is gain him more townie credit when he switched away from mindlessly tunnelling someone to OMGUS-ing sheeping townies when he was called out for not defending himself"
If you think I intentionally misunderstood your arguments against me, I am not. If you have any more problem with me just say it, but I suggest you start looking at someone else since you said everyone else in your scum list died or is a "strong" townie. Given my condition I doubt any amount of defence will prevent my lynch.
@Others
I am not going to spend too much time defending myself. I have put myself in a bad position. Mind that everytime I come back to the thread there're always other cases already. If you think I never wrote any substantial case, I am disappointed. I consciously look for points that has not been brought up before and put them on the table, and weight accordingly. These posts took me hours to write and people IGNORE it entirely, and just to come back and say they are wishy-washy and unsubstantial or generally, is meaningless.
@The last scum
Something does not add up. I seriously don't understand what is happening right now, if anyone wants to attack me more, try not to, but mind you you are only attacking a set-to-be-lynched townie. I could not find any scum reads, I couldn't make sense of the whole Mordanis/Darth Punk lynch situation. I looked at Ange's filter and she was one of them who started the Zork train. I looked at Karma and he can easily tip the balance towards a Mordanis lynch safely if he wishes to. I look at Jingle and aRyu and I cannot say I don't recognize them to be the main driving force behind DarthPunk's lynch, and Obvious, who is Obviously dead, and lastly Shady, who is a confirmed townie.
I see that all evidence is pointing towards me to be the last scum, hell, I would have voted myself if I am not myself. I hope you guys can see past that in the case that I flip town, and don't waste your discussion on how to cook me for dinner.
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@alan:
You say you don't want to spend too much time defending yourself but in the end this huge post only contains defensive explanation and lacks a case. If you yourself can't think of another scum candidate except for yourself then your entire defense just falls apart.
Could we have the flip earlier? Of course only if everyone agrees! Like today at 09:00 GMT (+00:00) instead of tomorrow.
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If you are interested in dropping down to 24 hour days, PM me and Marv.
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Days will stay at 48 hours. Currently 25 hours until the next deadline.
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EPT
