Bang Bang Mafia 2

On June 12 2012 09:50 marvellosity wrote:
gonzaw, you've just made me read all the setup speculation on Millers. Damn thee. There is so much I do not like about the claim.



Green text: Outlines in some depth how little benefit there is to Miller claiming in this setup. He calls the benefit a 'very niche' scenario.
Red text: Having outlined why it's barely beneficial if at all to claim Miller, he leaps into categorically saying no-one should give miller claims any shit. Claims at the end he 'outlined all the reasons'. All the reasons? He clarified himself it would only help in a 'very niche scenario'. What gives? He then says mafia have no reason to fakeclaim miller. He's actively pushing this to discredit the notion.
Blue text: Also see post below, but this looks like an attempt to halt any discussion of his miller claim. Because we're so busy on Night 0, right?



Again with the blue text, pushing the idea that talking about his claim is a bad thing. To the bold and underlined: twice he says his claim is not a big deal. More language in the middle with 'or killing me, whatever'. Basically totally flippant and acting unconcerned about it.



Look at the change in tone! From his original claim with his "hey, I guess I'll claim miller" casual attitude and subsequent post with the 'whatevers' and 'it's not a big deal' he fucking jumps down Toad's throat. Now he's again pushing the idea that even talking about his claim is a bad thing. He admits here that he forsaw people being suspicious of the claim. Yet in his original post, the only 'benefit' he saw was with a very niche day 5 cop scenario.

RoL said elsewhere in his filter that we should be working off behavioural analysis. I agree. I'm not questioning the claim because he claimed Miller, I'm questioning how he's gone about it. Scum.

On June 12 2012 10:06 Toadesstern wrote:

Yeah I totally agree here. That claim was really weird and as mentioned I wasn't even sure if it was a claim or a joke along the lines "well might as well claim miller" just to say a couple posts "...lol if I actually were a miller".

The one thing that got to my attention the most was obviously the last part you quoted because he was jumping down my very own throat for saying that claim is stupid and he should have claimed on the deadline or d1.
Here's the thing, he said himself the only downside to this (besides helping mafia bluesnipe, which he totally ignores although mentioned by me two times and by kita once) is idiots calling him suspicious on that one and he forsaw people being "stupid".
Again, this just makes no sense from a townie point of view. If he thinks I'm someone overanalyzing something, that's a fucking great towntell. Why is he willing to shoot me for that one. He's basicly calling me an incredible paranoid townie that keeps overthinkin stuff a lot and concludes in shooting me. That's not making sense at all.

On June 12 2012 10:11 marvellosity wrote:
Fairly likely he'd be GF yea.

To toad: I agree totally with the mentality and actually came back to the thread to make an EBWOP about it. A townie miller would be well aware that claiming miller would arise suspicion and discussion. VE was a townie miller claiming day 1 recently and he openly admitted that he would be scrutinised for it.

I don't see the townie mentality for multiple times casting suspicion on anyone wanting to think about the claim. He very specifically says there are no drawbacks in his claim post. No, townie miller would know that was a drawback and be upfront about it.

On June 12 2012 10:13 marvellosity wrote:
Effectively he's saying anyone suspecting him is probably mafia. No no no no no. NOT townie mentality. Trying to deflect attention scum mentality.

On June 11 2012 17:25 gonzaw wrote:
Please everybody don't make a L plan to shoot a townie 5 minutes into D1.

If you think someone is scum and really want to shoot them...you can always shoot them later (if everybody follows this trail of thought we'll have normal days).


Okay people, if we have a Miller, do they claim tonight or tomorrow?
If they claim tonight, and we have a cop the cop won't check them, but if they don't claim tonight there' s a chance the cop will.
If they claim tonight however, there's a chance scum will shoot them because of their "semi-confirmed" status (i.e scum never fake-claim Miller, so someone claiming Miller is 80% telling the truth).


Oh wait, here's the plan:


Miller, as soon as D1 starts, claim and you'll be the one in charge of shooting on D1

My plan goes like this:

First of all, a Miller claim will avoid a cop checking him subsequent nights.
Second, the Miller can shoot at day, therefore we can use him to choose the D1 shot.
Third, like said before the Miller is "semi-confirmed" because in average scum never fake-claim Miller, and they will most likely not do it today.
Why? Because then the Godfather will be the one forced to fake-claim

Since the plan is for the Miller to shoot on D1, and the only scum that can do so is the GF, then only him can fake-claim Miller (if any other scum claims Miller, they'll get instantly caught once they refuse to shoot).

So, let's imagine the GF fake-claims Miller, what then?

Then there is another Miller or there isn't:

1) There is another Miller claim:
Then there will be a counterclaim; and one of them will basically be confirmed scum (the chances of 2 Millers is EXTREMELY low). We then let them shoot each other. If the real Miller is faster, great he'll shoot the GF and we'll live happily ever after. If the GF is faster, well then we can kill the GF the next day/night.

2) There is no other Miller claim:
In this case, although we may take him as "confirmed" for a while, he'll be in the spotlight for quite a while.
Not only that, we can make a tracker track him at night, that way we can catch him as GF.


After we get rid of the GF, then catching the remaining scum will be easy if we all claim if we have a gun (and can shoot) or not. Those that claim they have a gun take turns in shooting each day (to actually confirm they have a gun) into the group that claimed they didn't have a gun (of course shooting those we think are actually scum from that group, not shooting our freaking blues >_>).


So, if the GF claims Miller there is a high chance he'll get fucked, therefore I don't think he will.
Therefore I think we can trust a Miller claim tomorrow, and in the worst case we'll get a tracker on him at N2.

So people, this is the plan I was thinking of, do you agree or not?:

To Miller:

• If someone else already claimed Miller, he's GF so shoot him (and claim Miller in the process)
  
• If nobody claimed Miller, then claim Miller
  
• After you do, we'll discuss normally and you'll decide the shot, preferably with town consensus, so don't go rogue on our asses.
  

To Town:

• No VT shoot until a Miller claims, or until 24 or more hours have passed (to give the Miller time to claim)
  
• Everybody, just discuss, scumhunt and catch some filthy scum for the Miller to shoot at
  

To Tracker the next night:

• Track the Miller claim

If we don't have any Millers it will be apparent soon (before the 24 hours or so) since everybody will post but there will be no claim.
If that happens, then after the 24 or so hours normal VTs are allowed to shoot.

The purpose of this plan is:

1. Out the Miller so we have a "semi-confirmed" townie, and so Cops don't check him at night
   
2. Either basically catch the GF if he fake-claims, or have the Miller as confirmed townie (after the tracker tracks him)
   
3. If we catch the GF; then the rest of the game will be easy as pie
   
4. If we don't, then we'll have a "confirmed" townie in the Miller by D2
   
5. When D1 starts, we are guaranteed to have time to discuss and not have a random VT shoot 10 minutes into the day, because we'll be waiting for a Miller to claim
   
6. When a Miller claims, he'll be the one in charge of the shot so we'll be sure no shenanigans and weird stuff happen (like 2 guys fighting each other and one randomly shooting the other one)

Of course this means everybody would follow the plan (those that have a gun and those that don't), so we are guaranteed to have some D1 time to discuss

So people, what do you think?

Observation:
Maybe the SK can fake-claim Miller, since he can shoot at Day.
However, the SK is forced to shoot at night, therefore a tracker on him WILL catch him.
Also, since a "confirmed" Miller is bad reputation for scum, scum are likely to shoot the Miller claim, so the chances of scum shooting the SK will increase, blowing his cover once he survives the hit (and no medic claims his save).
Basically, the SK fake-claiming Miller will let us/scum catch him sooner or later, and doing so to get the D1 shot (why would he want the D1 shot?) and a little confirmed status for a while isn't worth it for him.

Observation2:
There is a chance we don't have a tracker. In which case we can't confirm the Miller.
First of all, the point is that scum don't know if we have a tracker either, so by having the GF fake-claim Miller they risk we actually having one.
Second, even if we don't have a tracker, the GF will still be in the spotlight, because town will assume the tracker tracked him and got a "good" result (i.e that he didn't visit anyone), but the "Miller" claim will keep being alive throughout the whole game.
This will mean that one day or the other the Miller-fake-claiming-Godfather will fall; so again it's not very convenient for him to do so

On June 12 2012 12:18 marvellosity wrote:
Because I'm so nice gonzaw, I'm just going to lay out a post for other people to read instead of tunnelling you. And I will not be unilaterally shooting you.

To the rest of town: anyway, find below the case against RoL below. Now, the point isn't so much whether you have to agree with all of it, but it is nonetheless a case, consisting of analysis of content of posts, behaviour, and mentality.

+ Show Spoiler +

This is gonzaw's follow-up post:



gonzaw completely ignores anything to do with the behaviour, content and mentality, because he has 'never seen scum fake-claim miller in his whole life'. His speculation on how to confirm or otherwise RoL is equally weak, as I note here:





There is no analysis yet despite the fact there is analysis.



wbg points out the fact that there are almost never self-aware millers for him to reference. gonzaw is forced to accept this and says he has played in at most 2, if not only 1, game with self-aware millers.

So gonzaw ignores all the analysis of RoL's behaviour because he has played in at most 2 games where miller wasn't fake-claimed. He doesn't even bother actually looking at the content of the posts, and dismisses the case multiple times with "there haven't been analysis or cases yet". Yet his sole reason for dismissing was his 1 or 2 out of how many games he's played with self-aware millers.

On June 12 2012 19:31 marvellosity wrote:


Discrediting arguments with bad logic. It's not being smartass. I consider it extremely odd to make a 3-page long post outlining 20 different scenarios with tonnes of formatting which must have taken you close to an hour, when it's a scenario you never believe has occurred, will occur, or will ever occur. How is that NOT odd?

Let's kill gonzaw.