EPTTL Mafia LV - Page 87
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Mattchew
United States5684 Posts
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Mattchew
United States5684 Posts
We have the best possible night for town, and we want to lynch a claimed blue, vet? We should take this time to lynch lurkers and scummy newbs, because we have been afforded the opportunity to by our protection roles. Think about who you want to make your reads on later in the game, someone you've played with and is active, or someone that posts once a cycle and you hve never played with and is like flipping a coin. Lynching VE is straight up stupid and if he flips town, it is taking away a scum night kill and a town KP. Do you really think scum are going to shoot players like cwave, hyaach, grush, manason, gambit? These are the players we should be lynching (or SnB cause he claimed scum and I mean just look at his vote on VE that leaves a disclaimer about VE flipping town, 90% reasoning being meta while a quick 1 line about VE's vote switching) because when we get to the late game, these are the players that lose town games | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On June 01 2012 00:28 Mattchew wrote: Reposting We have the best possible night for town, and we want to lynch a claimed blue, vet? We should take this time to lynch lurkers and scummy newbs, because we have been afforded the opportunity to by our protection roles. Think about who you want to make your reads on later in the game, someone you've played with and is active, or someone that posts once a cycle and you hve never played with and is like flipping a coin. Lynching VE is straight up stupid and if he flips town, it is taking away a scum night kill and a town KP. Do you really think scum are going to shoot players like cwave, hyaach, grush, manason, gambit? These are the players we should be lynching (or SnB cause he claimed scum and I mean just look at his vote on VE that leaves a disclaimer about VE flipping town, 90% reasoning being meta while a quick 1 line about VE's vote switching) because when we get to the late game, these are the players that lose town games the point is, VE claimed blue without a reason. His claim does us nothing. Mafia or SK can easily fake being a vig and he should know that himself. If he had actually claimed something like a VT I would have maybe considered lynching Zealos instead but Vig is just way to convenient to be true. Why do you want to lynch into lurkers or scummy newbs? I'd say the case on VE is equally strong as the case on Zealos or better. On top of that VE is a player we all know, so noone can hide behind a "well duh, guess he was some unreadable newbie who did bullshit" excuse. If someone like hyaach flips town, what's your plan for the next night or day? We have a shitton of lurkers and I am certain everyone, or at least the majority of people who are mafia but aren't considered vet is trying to hide between those lurkers. How are you supposed to decide wether it's cwace, hyaach, grush, manason or gambit? Are those the only lurkers? What's with phagga (is he still in the game or replaced?), Hassybaby (he usually posts WAY MORE), sToFu (same as phagge, is he still in the game?) and Kenpachi ? Are all 9 of them mafia? If not how in the world are we supposed to differentiate between them when frankly, a case and scummy behavior is probably a town sign for those people as they're at least trying while the rest is trying it's best to shut up and not post a thing. We lost a complete cycle d1 due to wiggles lynch giving us 0 information. Luckily Mafia screwed up as well bringing us in the same situation we had before the game started. We're not in a good position. We basicly had a NL d1 and no kills (thanks to awesome protection) N1 making it effectively d1 although it might look like town is in a good position because we had no kills n1. There are different "camps" in this game and we desperately need to know which camp is just plain wrong, which camp is right and who's mafia. We don't get that by "policy-lynching" into lurkers hoping to hit mafia. Yeah we could hit mafia but I'm not going to lynch based on that. And no I'm not saying we're lynching VE for information. VE is the best guy for lynch right now AND he's giving a shitton of information on flip no matter what. That's a Jackpot for us. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
However, I'd still much rather play the "lazy" route with the lurkers. The argument that waiting a day on pushing a VE lynch gives us more information applies equally to the lurkers. We've got players that didn't vote D1, haven't voted D2, won't have posted for 2 cycles. If they get modkilled, we also get information from that. To a large extent, that negates the value of waiting for information in my mind, because it cuts both ways (unless we're discussing targetting only the layer of lurkers that are posting just enough to avoid modkills, which becomes more reasonable). | ||
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Zealos
United Kingdom3576 Posts
On May 31 2012 21:44 marvellosity wrote: Ok, just read a bunch of pages. Two things I need to re-read to get a proper handle are MZ's case on VE part 2, and VE's case on kita. One thing I'd written down before I came to VE's case is the absolutely odd occurrence of people vaguely, kinda, sort of being suspicious of kita. wbg's 'he kinda feels scummy' sentiment, VE's *earlier* non-case followed by OMGUS vote and unvote, Toad's 'scum coz of meta I won't elaborate on' and Probulous' case that wasn't quite a case. What's going on here? My read on VE is all over the place. I was leaning town, now I'm not so sure. I agreed heavily with wbg's post here: + Show Spoiler + On May 31 2012 12:32 wherebugsgo wrote: ok VE just did two incredibly scummy things. First of all supersoft pointed out something very valid: VE was all for pushing zealos but not actually putting his vote where his mouth was. Five minutes after supersoft posts this, VE makes a post unvoting gambit and voting Zealos. That's scummy thing #1. Scummy thing #2 is when some random guy comes in the thread and calls Hyaach scummy. VE immediately lets go of his Zealos vote and then votes Hyaach. It's like he has no sense of consolidation and he's just going with the flavor of the moment. This is what he did in LI where I came in the thread and said "hey hassybaby is scummy" and then VE voted hassy after I voted him, and kept saying how he was willing to kill him but changed his vote later anyway. The only problem is that in recent games VE has been willing to put together a bunch of names as scum all at once and he hasn't been afraid of calling them all out regardless of how strong the actual cases are (though he himself feels strongly about them, I suppose) usually though he tunnels at least one of the players. Right now I'm not feeling like VE has any sort of real conviction, and at the very least town VE has balls. All this rings true. I just don't get the flip-flopping. If townie VE was confident enough to shoot at Zealos night 1, why is it so hard to get him to keep to a vote on him today? Unfortunately, my thoughts very much sheep wbg's: ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- To Probulous and anyone who cares to read - please take a look over my filter for my thoughts regarding Zealos. Other people made what cases there were to be made based on Zealos' posts, and I have tried to explain why I think I have a meta handle on him and why he's scum. There's one post I refer to early on in my filter about Zealos that VE made himself, but didn't directly quote, so here it is, as I thought it was a very strong point: + Show Spoiler + On May 30 2012 01:40 VisceraEyes wrote: Posts like this really irk (pun intended ^^) me. First of all, it's clear by SS's post that he's suspicious of Zealos - that is to say, that he thinks he's scum. Yet Zealos' response is "But I'm townie, why do you want to kill a townie?" The obvious answer is that he doesn't - if you ask anyone in this game, literally anyone, whether they want to kill a townie, scum and town alike are going to say "of course not what a stupid question." No one WANTS to kill a townie...but the idea that Zealos is attempting to plant here is that supersoft wants to kill a townie. It's a manipulation move. Don't let it work. I feel way more confident in Zealos than I do in my read on VE, who I very rarely get an accurate read on. Right, back to read the major cases. Whats my meta exactly Marvel. I'm pretty sure in Magic mafia you meta'd me as scum due to my aggression, now you're meta-ing me as scum for... lurking? | ||
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Mattchew
United States5684 Posts
On June 01 2012 00:57 Toadesstern wrote: + Show Spoiler + On June 01 2012 00:28 Mattchew wrote: Reposting We have the best possible night for town, and we want to lynch a claimed blue, vet? We should take this time to lynch lurkers and scummy newbs, because we have been afforded the opportunity to by our protection roles. Think about who you want to make your reads on later in the game, someone you've played with and is active, or someone that posts once a cycle and you hve never played with and is like flipping a coin. Lynching VE is straight up stupid and if he flips town, it is taking away a scum night kill and a town KP. Do you really think scum are going to shoot players like cwave, hyaach, grush, manason, gambit? These are the players we should be lynching (or SnB cause he claimed scum and I mean just look at his vote on VE that leaves a disclaimer about VE flipping town, 90% reasoning being meta while a quick 1 line about VE's vote switching) because when we get to the late game, these are the players that lose town games the point is, VE claimed blue without a reason. His claim does us nothing. Mafia or SK can easily fake being a vig and he should know that himself. If he had actually claimed something like a VT I would have maybe considered lynching Zealos instead but Vig is just way to convenient to be true. Why do you want to lynch into lurkers or scummy newbs? I'd say the case on VE is equally strong as the case on Zealos or better. On top of that VE is a player we all know, so noone can hide behind a "well duh, guess he was some unreadable newbie who did bullshit" excuse. If someone like hyaach flips town, what's your plan for the next night or day? We have a shitton of lurkers and I am certain everyone, or at least the majority of people who are mafia but aren't considered vet is trying to hide between those lurkers. How are you supposed to decide wether it's cwace, hyaach, grush, manason or gambit? Are those the only lurkers? What's with phagga (is he still in the game or replaced?), Hassybaby (he usually posts WAY MORE), sToFu (same as phagge, is he still in the game?) and Kenpachi ? Are all 9 of them mafia? If not how in the world are we supposed to differentiate between them when frankly, a case and scummy behavior is probably a town sign for those people as they're at least trying while the rest is trying it's best to shut up and not post a thing. We lost a complete cycle d1 due to wiggles lynch giving us 0 information. Luckily Mafia screwed up as well bringing us in the same situation we had before the game started. We're not in a good position. We basicly had a NL d1 and no kills (thanks to awesome protection) N1 making it effectively d1 although it might look like town is in a good position because we had no kills n1. There are different "camps" in this game and we desperately need to know which camp is just plain wrong, which camp is right and who's mafia. We don't get that by "policy-lynching" into lurkers hoping to hit mafia. Yeah we could hit mafia but I'm not going to lynch based on that. And no I'm not saying we're lynching VE for information. VE is the best guy for lynch right now AND he's giving a shitton of information on flip no matter what. That's a Jackpot for us. Because a. I don't think VE is scum. His response to me getting shot screamed that he believed I was shot by mafia. Being that I wasn't, I don't think this can be faked as easily as I know you guys are going to say it can. b. I don't want to play into the late game with the list of players that I mentioned. They don't post which makes them not hard, but impossible to read. Weeding out the herd while inevitably lynching scum is a good tactic. c. You want VE to lie about his role? If he claims VT and flips vig, everyone would be like VE WTF MAN Y U NO CLAIM BLUE I WOULD HAVE NEVER LYNCHED YOU HAD YOU CLAIMED THAT d. If he flip hyaach or anyone and they flip town, we wait till the night kills and then we re-evaluate. e. i asked about phagga and ange on the top of this page. sToFu posts a lot, hassybaby is also MIA but he isn't newb and Kenpachi has a bunch of posts as well. My list is of newbie lurkers. f. IDK who's mafia and who's not in there, we are not able to differentiate, thats why we kill them all early, instead of them being an easy late game LYLO mislynch. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On June 01 2012 01:12 austinmcc wrote: I agree with Mattchew that we're in a good spot after N1. Toad, you're being overly pessimistic when you say we lost a complete cycle D1, because mafia lost a complete cycle too. Having an effective D1 on D2 is a fantastic position, we're effectively up 3 or more townies on where we could be. We make up the information deficit over time, and moving forward a day without town losses really helps out there. However, I'd still much rather play the "lazy" route with the lurkers. The argument that waiting a day on pushing a VE lynch gives us more information applies equally to the lurkers. We've got players that didn't vote D1, haven't voted D2, won't have posted for 2 cycles. If they get modkilled, we also get information from that. To a large extent, that negates the value of waiting for information in my mind, because it cuts both ways (unless we're discussing targetting only the layer of lurkers that are posting just enough to avoid modkills, which becomes more reasonable). Yes we're getting some "raw" information over time, like who looks scummy or who looks good but that could be all wrong based on assumptions that someone else looks good. For example if you take me for a townie, I take someone else for a townie and we both push the same guy it could be easily said we've more information. The first guy is most likely townie because the townie and the probably-townie share the same thoughts and conclusions. However, that could be totally wrong and that "raw" information isn't giving us a thing unless we lynch into someone to show wether or not our assumptions are correct. Lynching into Zealos gives me 0 information on my assumptions up to this point and neither will it give someone else a lot of information. Lynching VE however is awesome either way: Either because it shows me that I'm horribly wrong about my assumptions or it shows me that I was right and should keep on looking into the same direction. Again, not saying we're lynching VE for that reason, we're lynching him because he's scummy as it can get, it's just that the other scummy guy has less advantages combined to his lynch. We need to clear out who's right and who's wrong right now or this bullshit discussion we had for the past 90hours or something like that will keep on because everyone will be like "wäääääh, but I want to lynch THAT guy, and not your guy". We can't keep on playing like that or town will be scattered all over the place. If I'm wrong I'm wrong and I'm sorry but I HIGHLY doubt it. If I am wrong I will reconsider my assumptions. If I'm right I'm right and awesome. If I am right we know that the other guys were wrong and they'll have to reconsider their assumptions. We need that right now and we need some hard facts that are telling us something about other people. VE is the scummiest player in here AND he gives a shitton of HARD FACTS about other people. Zealos is equally or about equally scummy but if that guy flips town we'll keep on questioning ourselves who is right and who is wrong. I don't want that. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On June 01 2012 01:18 Zealos wrote: Whats my meta exactly Marvel. I'm pretty sure in Magic mafia you meta'd me as scum due to my aggression, now you're meta-ing me as scum for... lurking? Do you not bother to read my posts at all? I even linked the post I made in MTM in this thread. The thrust of my meta attack on you in Magic was that as town you didn't vote willy-nilly and in MTM you did. On May 31 2012 05:18 marvellosity wrote: I feel a lot more confident in a Zealos lynch. I read over like 4 of his previous games when I was looking at him in Magic and I think I have a handle on him. After I pointed it out how he started town/scum games in mafia, he's come in here trying really hard to make his first post look like 'townie' Zealos. Too hard. Then he hasn't followed it up with any substance. Only more weird and scummy posts. Town Zealos would be dishing out his reads, but he's cowering in fear hoping the topic of conversation would move on from him. Everything you ask is already answered in this post. To the green: how's that going for ya? Oh... it isn't! | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
You lynch into people who think are scummy to get peoples opinion on them and to get mafia. You shoot into people that are hard to read because they're not posting because lynching them gives 0 information. Let our vigs do the job of cleaning that mess up. If we shoot someone like VE and he flips that's less information than we'd get from a lynch either way. Lynching or shooting into a lurker however makes no difference, except for the fact that we're wasting our lynch. | ||
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VisceraEyes
United States21171 Posts
I don't know if Kita is the lyncher or if Kita is scum. I THINK he's scum, but honestly he could be third party. The point of my second part was to show how Kita's D1 activity was indicative of him not having town's best interest at heart. To be honest, everyone is overreacting to A) MZ's case and B) my claim. MZ's case really is bad, I can't understand why so many people think it's good. I've been trying to find scum, and I've been trying to generate game-relevant discussion. I understand that I post a lot, but I'm not trying to 'spam the thread away' or anything, I'm just a sociable, talkative guy. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On June 01 2012 01:23 Toadesstern wrote: Lynching into Zealos gives me 0 information on my assumptions up to this point and neither will it give someone else a lot of information. Toad, ss thinks a Zealos flip will give info about Wiggles, do you not agree? | ||
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VisceraEyes
United States21171 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On June 01 2012 01:28 VisceraEyes wrote: Can anyone tell me in their own words why I'm scummy? I'm not responding to MZ because he's maliciously misrepresenting my intentions....but I'll gladly respond to anyone else. Two things I mentioned: the weak-ass meta attack on kita, and the fact you were totally willing to shoot zealos night 1 yet getting you to vote him today is almost impossible | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On June 01 2012 01:26 marvellosity wrote: Toad, ss thinks a Zealos flip will give info about Wiggles, do you not agree? exactly. Maybe a little information if the guy flips red but that's not an issue because if he flipped red I'm already happy about that. If Zealos somehow flips green I know nothing about someone else. Neither about wiggles nor about some other guy. Not even about Supersoft. | ||
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VisceraEyes
United States21171 Posts
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VisceraEyes
United States21171 Posts
I want you to put in in the thread now, because you need to be held accountable for it when I flip. What does that mean about the other players when I flip town? | ||
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Mattchew
United States5684 Posts
On June 01 2012 01:26 Toadesstern wrote: Mattchew it's easy as this: You lynch into people who think are scummy to get peoples opinion on them and to get mafia. You shoot into people that are hard to read because they're not posting because lynching them gives 0 information. Let our vigs do the job of cleaning that mess up. If we shoot someone like VE and he flips that's less information than we'd get from a lynch either way. Lynching or shooting into a lurker however makes no difference, except for the fact that we're wasting our lynch. Why is thinning the herd (and potentially hitting scum) providing nothing to town... It makes it easier to focus in on people that are actually readable And why do you assume we have all this kp? And then want to lynch one of the claimed vigs | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On June 01 2012 01:24 slOosh wrote: It is now Day 2. With 28 players alive it takes 14 to lynch. Voting is mandatory and must be done in the voting thread. The day ends on Thursday, May 31 11:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00). That's like in 6 hours. Day 2 Vote Count + Show Spoiler [The actual votes] + VisceraEyes - (10) kitaman27 Meapak_Ziphh EchelonTee Blazinghand MajuGarzett Manason Toadesstern austinmcc strongandbig sToFu Zealos - (5) marvellosity wherebugsgo jaj22 supersoft Hyaach GambitX32 - (2) Mr. Wiggles Ange777 Kitaman - (1) VisceraEyes papapanda - (1) Kenpachi Hyaach - (1) Probulous Toadesstern - (0) Haven't voted - (8) Mattchew Hassybaby Zealos phagga grush57 Cwave GambitX32 papapanda Also, please play nice. Getting out of hand here and there. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On June 01 2012 01:32 VisceraEyes wrote: Toadesstern, what information does me flipping exactly what I say, Gaz the Town Vig? I want you to put in in the thread now, because you need to be held accountable for it when I flip. What does that mean about the other players when I flip town? If you SOMEHOW manage to flip town it makes supersoft look bad, it makes wiggles look good and it makes kita look bad. It makes Zealos look nullish, it makes WBG look good. Obviously I could say something about all the small names but that'd take a while. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On June 01 2012 01:37 Mattchew wrote: Why is thinning the herd (and potentially hitting scum) providing nothing to town... It makes it easier to focus in on people that are actually readable And why do you assume we have all this kp? And then want to lynch one of the claimed vigs becaaaauuse, there is no reason to waste a lynch for one of them yet. | ||
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