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On June 05 2012 17:15 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:well probulous this has provided an interesting twist. I just got done with your filter and I don't think you're lying about your role, however I'm not convinced kita is either. I do see kita as probably the best target for a frame. Think about it, WBG, Toad, and I all got confirmed really fast. Wiggles is mister lurker, ET has been flitting around, what better target to frame than kita? Many people have called his play out so he's a great choice to frame. Since it's 1am I'm going to sleep on this so I don't make any decisions rashly, I have no desire to repeat the VE disaster  Also if there is a medic out there then CC ONLY IF YOU CAN SHOW A SOLID BREADCRUMB TO YOUR SAVE AND YOUR NIGHT PROTS the last thing we want is for scum to CC and have kita lynched because the thread doesn't like him and would believe just about any CC that gets posted.
Just read both claims and the ensuing responses and my head hurts a bit.
There's an unaccounted for save Day 1. Either kitaman performed the save or he did not. If he did not then someone else did and they should claim and we lynch kita. I do not understand Probulous' view that this would simply out the real medic. kitaman is correct in that potentially lynching a townie is a MUCH bigger downside than revealing the medic.
The only thing that gives me pause is MZ's post here about how scum can counterclaim. What do you suggest, or what do you think the scenario is, if the medic did not breadcrumb? That they keep quiet and we go ahead and lynch kita after all?
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So I've been mulling it over a little. I think any medic should counterclaim, whether they breadcrumbed their protections or not. So
1) there is no counter-claim, so kita is town medic because of the Meapak save
2) there is a counter-claim, with two options
A- real medic is counterclaiming, we lynch kita and he flips scum
B- scum are counterclaiming, we lynch kita who flips town then we lynch the scum
In other words there are 3 outcomes, the first being we avoid lynching the town medic, the second being kita scum is lynched but a medic is outed, the third being we lynch our town medic but we get a confirmed scum lynch.
Apparently it is the second outcome that Probulous is wary of. In other words it all boils down to the question: are people so sure that kitaman is scum that they are convinced he cannot be telling the truth, i.e. we lynch kita scum but we don't out a medic.
I'm not sure enough to take this chance. kita is 3rd on my potential scumlist (behind manason, papa - post to come on those 2 later), so the chance that we're lynching our doctor is a bit too high. If you're the real medic you should counterclaim.
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Earlier I said I would post on my top 2 reads, Manason and papapanda, so voila.
Manason, the brazen newbie scum
Taking a slightly different tack on this one. I'm about to take up a bunch of room with some quotes, but I put them here specifically to illustrate my point. Manason was quite willing to openly discuss and engage in the debate for mayor:
On May 27 2012 13:54 Manason wrote:
Assuming that Grush is going to be a bad townie is in my opinion a bad move. Give everyone a chance and the fact that your so set on killing this guy makes me wonder as to how easily you'll decide someone else is guilty. I'm all fine with someone who is set on making town lose die, but give him a chance first and condemn later. Rash decisions are what makes town lose.
On May 27 2012 14:03 Manason wrote:Show nested quote +On May 27 2012 13:55 Blazinghand wrote:
You clearly didn't read the LIV filter I linked if you think somehow Grush wasn't given a chance to be a good townie. I did indeed, and regardless I still believe that every game is different and it is only fair to disregard previous player actions. As I said before if there is no change in the way Gush conducts himself on the first day, by all means the mayor may lynch him. But I believe in a mayor that makes an informed decision based on actions in the current game rather than lynching him based on what he "might" do.
So here we have Manason taking a stance on the 'lynch grush' mayoral campaign(s).
On May 27 2012 23:52 Manason wrote:
I'm leaning more towards Mr. Wiggles at this point. He's the only one who has given complete sound reasoning on why he should be vice-leader. He promises to basically never use it. So if he does he's either just a bad townie, or scum. And he knows we'd lynch him. There is only one reason I can find not to trust him which is, Assuming he is scum he wants the position so a townie can't get it and so that closer to the endgame it can become the difference between a scum win and a townie win.
Also I don't know if this has already been brought up, but assuming the mayor is a good townie I think it's reasonable to believe that they'll be killed the first night, after all why would scum want a good townie in a position with double votes, it can only be bad for them. So we should start looking a little bit more closely at our mayor candidates, because if any of them have brains they've already figured it out they'll be dead the first night unless they're scum of course.
A reasoned out post on why he thinks Wiggles is the best candidate. Points here and there explaining his actions.
Next we have the setup for his subsequent play. Not sure why so little was made of this at the time:
On May 29 2012 13:25 Manason wrote:Show nested quote +On May 29 2012 12:53 jaj22 wrote:On May 29 2012 11:17 Manason wrote:
Perhaps we should be focusing on people that aren't posting a lot? Or at least taking a closer look. The scum reads I've seen so far are only for people that have been actively posting and while more posts does help you when figuring out someones alignment, the smaller posts can be more telling.
Been staring at those, failed to find anything worth mentioning except papapanda's abdictation of responsibility on the Grush/Sinensis thing, which is probably in character for him. Honestly I'd be happy to kill anyone with fewer than five posts, because they're killing town. It's a long list. On May 29 2012 11:17 Manason wrote:
I'd also like to see a bit more sureness in your lynch possiblities Wiggles. While I understand you just lynched a townie and might be hesitant to be so quick to pounce on someone, I'd be curious to hear who's on your radar. Why? He's just a guy with two votes. Who's on your radar? I voted for Mr. Wiggles because I trusted that he would make a good lynch, so I'm curious as to who he would want to lynch because to be honest I don't have the time nor will power to sit here and analyze everyone. I'd rather someone who I know is better than me to be suspicious and then I can form my own opinion on the matter. The people on my radar I would rather not say because I have zero evidence to back up my claims other than pure intuition, which could be wrong. So no use making enemies when no one will believe me anyway.
Read: I will not make cases and I'm probably not gonna make cases. Jeez. This is townie? No.
It's been said before, but I'm trying to consolidate here:
On May 31 2012 15:43 Manason wrote:
Sorry VE, but theres a lot of evidence making you look bad.
##Unvote: Kitaman
##Vote: VisceraEyes
However I still do look forward to what you have on Kita, If it's good enough you might have a chance to not get lynched.
On June 01 2012 23:29 Manason wrote:
Ok well there is something I want to make clear right now. I never thought VE was Scum.
Little explaining needed. As elsewhere in my filter, last game in Magic I caught Zealos scum for saying he lynched someone he thought was a townie day 1.
On June 02 2012 10:31 Manason wrote:
##Vote Kitaman
I will post a case later.
Do we get a case?
On June 05 2012 06:04 Manason wrote:Show nested quote +On June 05 2012 05:59 marvellosity wrote:On June 05 2012 05:56 Manason wrote:
I am confused,
can someone please tell me what's going on with Toad and his circle? I am confused, I'm sure you said you were going to make a case on kita but I can't for the life of me find it I started to make a case, but it took to long and I decided to go play Skyrim.
This is the brazen I'm talking about. Refusing to make cases and no-one is suspicious of him. I'd like to note an earlier comment he made here:
On May 29 2012 11:17 Manason wrote:
I know I haven't posted a lot you guys, which is mostly due to the fact that I've been on vacation and hardly have found the time to read all the posts much less post myself.
This was quite near the start, explaining his not-great deal of posting on vacation. Except now he's not on vacation, he's posting even less of content, using other terrible excuses (playing Skyrim?!)
Conclusion: Sheeps a vote on VE, explaining he thought he was town
Does not scumhunt, or promises to and fails to deliver
Posts with good explanations and points during the mayoral debates, but the sum total of his scum analysis is this:
On any fucking time at all Manason wrote:
Scum.
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papapanda, the wishy-washy scum:
It's harder to pick out posts for wishywashyness here, but posts like these:
On May 30 2012 07:46 papapanda wrote:
Supersoft,
I feel like you have been contradicting yourself through the game. You changed your own priority for targets quite a bit. Vigging Wiggles, are you serious? He said he was lynching sinensis, if he had changed target last second, that would have been more alarming.
Sorry what is your position for toad once again? I don't feel like we forced him to claim anything. You seem to be one of the few that is OK with his play. What is the "obvious" reason for him to mason you?
Claiming vig is tough. As there is really no way to confirm you in terms of methods as toad is using, you can't call the shot beforehand.
As Toad already picked his buddy, I just want to say that I will be worried if you are the one who claims mason for him.
Lots of questions as with much of his filter in general. This is the kind of post that's a post for the sake of it.
On June 01 2012 06:12 papapanda wrote:
Grush, if you starsense is telling you VE is not scum, don't vote for him...vote for who you believe to be scum; I would recommend wriggles(long as its not me)
Gambit didn't respond yet, if he ninjas today he is dead tomorrow.
The only reliable way I can think of to confirm VE is 1)tell him who to shoot 2)someone protect the target 3) target tells us whats up.
Before you post comments on why this is a stupid plan, I want to say that I agree it's a stupid plan and this is not going to happen tonight because so many things can go wrong.
#Vote:VE
This post is obviously the big one. It just screams scum. Don't vote for VE! Wiggles is more likely scum, vote for him! Except I will vote for VE! The reason he's voting for VE? The plan to confirm his vig shot is flawed. Well where the fuck does that say VE is scum? It just doesn't. As far as single condemning posts go, this one is pretty high up the list.
The saga goes on, because he's pressed on it:
On June 01 2012 06:43 papapanda wrote:
Both you and I have read MZ's cases, as well as other posts, can we agree that his points are valid?
However as I was reading it, I was, using your term, on the fence for VE's lynch.
What I didn't like was how he responded to the pressure. He claimed vig, one the the toughest role to prove at this stage of the game. Ofcourse it's possible he is vig, and what ticked for me was what he said about if he was the mafia leader, the mafia would try more to save him...(can't find the post, but I'm pretty certain that I read it today). Wifom doesn't work as defenses...(learned that the hard way last game, marvellosity;p).
Anyhow, my point is I find VE scummy and people trying to spread the vote are also worth looking at(hi kenpachi).
More bad, just everywhere. At the start, he's just saying "MZ made a good case no? didn't he just?" But still NO explanation from him on what HE finds particularly scummy. Then again we have him talking about vig for most of his post. Between his last post and this one we have him spending most of the time talking about the vig part, which is actually relatively pretty unimportant. He concludes by saying 'I find VE scummy'. Why? How? ...
On June 01 2012 07:12 papapanda wrote:
VE has been contradicting himself through the game. The thing about playing completely different playstyle, day-game and night-game, is just bullocks.
VE's vote-jumping I dislike.
VE's responses are inappropriate as a town.
Marv,
May I ask you what part of the case you find invalid?
The day-night game difference. I'm pretty sure that was supersoft that said this, not VE. So we can scratch that as a non-point. VE's vote-jumping is null, and the third point, his responses are 'inappropriate'? What does this even mean? I'm going on a bit now but everything about papapanda's vote on VE and his subsequent explanation reeks of scum.
For further reading, here is his filter from LIV where he was town. He's more open, more engaging, less afraid to post. There's an honesty and lack of deception in his filter in LIV that does not seem present here.
Conclusion: wishy washy
Terrible, terrible vote and subsequent explanation on VE (main point!)
less contributory than as town in LIV
Scum.
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kitaman: the problem I have with Kenpachi and Wiggles is this.
Kenpachi always plays low content and generally 'scummily'. The post you quoted that you found scummy came before we were aware of where several of the power roles lay.
Mr Wiggles hasn't been as active as I'd like, especially after he ran for mayor. But I followed the entirety of Liar game and Wiggles was always on that same cusp of not posting very much, and with a lot of questions, that didn't look great. Except he flipped town.
Basically those two players haven't made me go 'bazing! scum!' like Manason and papa.
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gonna have to take a closer look at maju, plenty of people are suspicious of him and he's slipped me by a little while i was hunting for other scum
Prob, opinions on my cases?
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Using VE as an example for almost anything other than odd claims is a dodgy business
I quoted that as an example of filler post just because I find most of his posts like that - filler.
We're not quite seeing eye to eye on the VE vote thing. You get a town vibe from it, but I don't know in what world a townie votes to lynch someone while at the same time trying to persuade someone to move their vote off their favoured lynch target. Not only this but he can't even really explain WHY VE is his favoured lynch target.
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I'm somewhat curious why Toad keeps including himself in feared town veterans etc. :/
Didn't do this before, so
##Vote: Manason
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On June 06 2012 21:45 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2012 21:02 marvellosity wrote:
I'm somewhat curious why Toad keeps including himself in feared town veterans etc. :/
Didn't do this before, so
##Vote: Manason I'm not including myself in a list of feared town vets. I'm including myself in a list of vets and yes I did that before.
'Didn't do this before' was referring to myself on the voting, not you ^^
austin: the mafia roleblocker (Gambit) is dead too as well as toad saying he can't be rb'ed
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On June 06 2012 21:54 Toadesstern wrote:Ok just one question: Except for mana does this look bad? That's a lot of people I consider to be townies. And we need 8 people on someone. Do you really want to get on mana instead?
So you're suggesting you'd prefer people voting for the claimed medic with no counter-claim instead?
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So the answer to my previous question would be 'yes'?
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You realise that if you didn't choose Probulous you'd be leaving our dt out to dry, right?
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On June 07 2012 02:42 Hassybaby wrote:
He's gone for a few hours. You're thinking the bandwagon is too easy?
Hassy, I read it that ET was ??ing about the move to get people off Manason.
I had a look at Maju's filter. It doesn't look great for 2 reasons
1) the low content to post ratio as ET mentioned.
2) the lol didn't read thread! syndrome.
There's a pretty good chance he's scum. He just doesn't push anything, a comment here, a question there, a weird little case-let on stofu that he never pushes.
marv's order of scumminess from absolute scum to scum is thusly Manason, papapanda, Maju.
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On June 07 2012 06:07 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
So is it just that no one is here, or do people just not want to switch their votes? Is no one going to address that Manason reads and feels more like a clueless new player than scum? Remember my vote counts double, so we only need 6 other people to vote maju. Manason is 1. With MZ and Toad, that's 3. So, only 3 others need to switch to kill Maju.
Your defence of Manason seems to be that he's too scummy to be scum. It's just not a defence. I've mentioned twice already this game that scum Zealos got caught in Magic admitting he voted for a townie, and he had Katina on his team to 'coach' him. The fact that he was willing to discuss the mayoral elections but NEVER on scum analysis is pretty damning. He's not even responded when kita gave him an explicit chance to earlier (Zealos and gambit were pushed to contribute earlier this game and did not, and we know how they flipped). So when Manason doesn't contribute he's townie because the scumteam would have told him to, but when Zealos/Gambit didn't the scumteam were doing what?
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Where's Probulous? He's still on kita and he helped me push this Manason case, so he should be moving his vote off kita pronto.
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On June 07 2012 19:48 EchelonTee wrote:bleh I feel like a stupid noob for lynching Manason over Maju. What I wrote earlier: Show nested quote +Look at Maju's posts: who has he called out as suspicious? sTofu, and "zealos over gambit", which doesn't mean much these days as both are scum, and gambit was RBer.
Who does he make a case on? ....No one.
How many posts does he have? A decent amount. That's what I mean by "extremely low content to post ratio". He has almost no interest in scumhunting based on the amount of posts he has that aren't scumhunting. Is still mostly true; all that has changed is a weak case on Hassybaby (green checked) and papapanda (one of the other massively suspected people).
Think of it this way - Manason's town flip just makes it even more likely that Maju/papa will flip scum.
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austin/Hyaach - if we put aside kita/MZ for a moment, do you have other scumreads?
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On June 08 2012 08:07 Toadesstern wrote:
Ok MZ is confirmed town.
I am confirmed town.
Kill that Maju-dude because I say so.
For once I am not going to argue with you, because this time I agree with you papapanda next though.
##Vote: MazuGarjett
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also good to have you back with us, austin
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EPT
