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On May 19 2012 12:16 PaqMan wrote:Show nested quote +On May 19 2012 12:02 Misder wrote: This also means that Janitor is not in those three hands, and that if there is a Janitor, then it's in scum's hand in a lower draft position. I think it's much more possible that nobody grabbed Janitor and that role is out of play. If that's true, then Sentinel is the correct lynch (remember, he is claiming to have gone for Janitor).
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On May 19 2012 12:19 Misder wrote:Show nested quote +On May 19 2012 12:14 PaqMan wrote: Jesus Christ there's so many liars.
zelblade picked JOAT and didn't get it. R, M,or S must be JOAT. If S isn't lying, R or M is lying M picked mason. R picked vigi. It'd clear M if his mason claimed but I don't want to give scum a free townie. The JOAT is between risk and sent.
Toad you were wrong about lynching into risk/sent/marv. If risk is JOAT, what does sent have? If risk is JOAT (and is thus lying about taking Vigilante), we have multiple liars because either marvellosity took Janitor (and is lying about being mason) or Sentinel is lying about taking Janitor.
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On May 19 2012 12:28 risk.nuke wrote: Insomnia and can't sleep. Qatol and Misder. Reading your conversation is... well the level of is it like watching two kids counting cones in the woods and one of the kids says wait this cone is actually two cones stuck together and the other bursts out in amazement. Oh, nice catch! You're discussing completely obvious things for even people who just glance at the thread. Drop the condescending attitude, please. Remember that not all of us have the same information you have. And besides, it is clearly necessary because a bunch of players aren't getting it. If it's all so obvious to you, why don't you walk us through it constructively rather than just sit on the sidelines and heckle us?
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On May 19 2012 12:16 PaqMan wrote:Show nested quote +On May 19 2012 12:02 Misder wrote: This also means that Janitor is not in those three hands, and that if there is a Janitor, then it's in scum's hand in a lower draft position. I think it's much more possible that nobody grabbed Janitor and that role is out of play.
On May 19 2012 12:37 PaqMan wrote:Show nested quote +On May 19 2012 12:31 Misder wrote:On May 19 2012 12:28 risk.nuke wrote: Insomnia and can't sleep. Qatol and Misder. Reading your conversation is... well the level of is it like watching two kids counting cones in the woods and one of the kids says wait this cone is actually two cones stuck together and the other bursts out in amazement. Oh, nice catch! You're discussing completely obvious things for even people who just glance at the thread. Yes, but 7 people haven't read the thread yet or just don't get it. For example, PaqMan recently posted in the thread after the claims and yet hasn't concluded what Qatol and I have concluded in the thread yet. And what is that? That you two think sent is scum? I'm not going to sheep my vote, I trust my read over two people who I'm not even sure are town. Which part of your logic do you think you are wrong in? Is Janitor not part of those three picks or is Sentinel town? Who is lying among these players? If Sentinel is town, then two of marvellosity, risk.nuke, and zelblade are lying.
Let me draw up the conversation Misder and I are having a little more comprehensively: 1. risk.nuke claims to have taken vigilante 2nd 2. marvellosity claims to have taken mason 3rd 3. [UoN]Sentinel claims to have taken janitor 4th but got vanilla 4. zelblade claims to have taken Jack of All Trades 6th but got vanilla 5. Toadesstern claims to have taken mason 12th but got vanilla
Let's assume (like you just mentioned) that Sentinel is town. Let's also assume (as you mentioned earlier) that nobody picked Janitor. 1. [UoN]Sentinel CANNOT have tried to take the role and failed to get it (he claimed to have tried to grab Janitor). This means he is lying FOR SURE! Why don't you want to lynch him?
I'm going to assume you want to reconsider the idea that Janitor isn't among those 3 picks (that way Sentinel is not a liar). Let's break that situation down a bit further: 1. Let's assume risk.nuke took Janitor and marvellosity took mason. Zelblade must be lying about not getting JOAT. (So risk.nuke and zelblade are liars.) 2. Let's assume risk.nuke took Vigilante and marvellosity took Janitor. This means that Zelblade must be lying about not getting JOAT and one of two situations happened: 2a. Toadesstern is not lying about mason being gone by the time he picked. This means that the mafia must have picked mason between picks 6 and 11 (remember, we have already established that in this scenario, zelblade must be lying). We also know that marvellosity and zelblade are liars. 2b. Toadesstern is lying about picking mason (marvellosity, zelblade, and toadesstern are liars). 3. Let's assume that risk.nuke took Vigilante and marvellosity took mason. Then Sentinel got Janitor when he selected it. He is still lying and we still want to lynch him.
So which situation is the one you think is the most likely? By saying Sentinel is telling the truth, you are saying for sure that two or more of zelblade, risk.nuke, and marvellosity are lying, plus either toadesstern is lying or the mafia spent a mid-level pick on mason. Doesn't that seem like a lot of resources for the mafia to be committing this early?
Meanwhile, if Sentinel is lying (mafia picking JOAT), nobody else needs to be lying.
If Sentinel is lying, having picked traitor, then things get more complicated: We still have at least one liar out of risk.nuke, marvellosity, and zelblade. Once again, if marvellosity is a liar, Toadesstern is also lying or the mafia spent a mid-level pick on mason.
Having said all of that, what is the most likely situation to you? Are you saying you think the mafia committed multiple members to this situation after already losing deconduo? Or is Sentinel a good lynch target?
I argue that a lynch on Sentinel makes the most sense, if only to tell us whether we are looking at multiple liars or if we can move the discussion along and discuss other candidates.
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On May 19 2012 13:27 Snarfs wrote: Looks like we had enough to lynch Sentinel whenever GM gets around to posting the night post.
If Palmar pardoned Sentinel (which I don't think he did because he's intelligent), someone should probably shoot him for prolonging the debate).
If Sentinel flips town, we shoot/lynch risk.nuke tonight and tomorrow.
If Sentinel flips mafia, obviously risk.nuke has to shoot tonight so we should still discuss mafia targets throughout the night.
Just waiting on the flip now. I disagree. I think if Sentinel flips town, we have to force marvellosity's mason buddy to claim before we go after risk.nuke. That way, if risk.nuke flips innocent as well, we have forced another liar out of the woodwork (giving us the whole scum team if I'm not mistaken - marvellosity, zelblade, the "mason target", and deconduo).
If Sentinel flips mafia, why is risk shooting? Better still, who is he shooting? We want to take actions on as much information as possible. We also don't want to speed the game up. If Sentinel flips mafia jack, I don't think risk should be shooting at all. If Sentinel flips as some other form of mafia, I agree risk should probably shoot into the list of other liars.
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EBWOP: If Sentinel flips mafia jack (which I think is the most likely situation), I don't think risk should be shooting at all.
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On May 19 2012 13:39 Snarfs wrote:Sorry, I just figured risk would be a very high priority target for mafia being both a vigilante and very likely town so in order to use his power role he would have to use it tonight. The other option is for him to not use it and risk dying, but risk.nuke doesn't seem like the kind of guy who would want to get killed by mafia without using his KP . Honestly, risk is probably going to shoot tonight. He's that kind of guy. We should do our best to give him the best target, while at the same time, if we can't find a reasonable one, encourage him not to shoot Doesn't that just mean we should ask the Jailkeeper (if there is one) to protect him? The only problem with that is it would expose whether or not there is a Jailkeeper in the game (if risk.nuke lives, he can tell us if he was roleblocked. If he dies, there probably isn't a Jailkeeper). However, I don't think that hurts the town as badly compared to the potential benefit of blocking a hit or two (a potential mafia hit on risk.nuke + a likely miss on his vigilante hit).
On May 19 2012 13:40 Snarfs wrote: Although, in saying that, I realize zelblade is also a very high priority target for mafia >.>. Either way, the point is not to avoid discussing mafia targets during the night phase. That is all. I agree. That being said, unless something changes dramatically or the lynch doesn't go as expected, my point is that I'd rather not see anyone shooting.
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On May 19 2012 18:54 risk.nuke wrote: Sentinel going awol was the smartest thing he did. It made you guys to ignore how obvious he was the scum and caused 2 unnecessary roleclaims and he even nearly got away with it.
Palmar the only excuse I "might" had been able to buy from you would have been a "sorry I haven't cared about this game". Your neglect to have any input on any plans, lack of scumhunting continuous support for bad plans and dumb actions just isn't possible from town a perspective.
As much as I would love to kill palmar I think it's too complicated for me to do it when we don't know where the roles are. I think a better plan would be to say. Jailer, Roleblocker and Angry Vigilante should all go for him and see if they can manage to take him out.
With 2 scum in the upper draft dead and the current situation I'm thinking about if maybe it would be good to do an organized mass roleclaim. I'm thinking we start at the bottom of the draft with Sandroba and after he's posted what role he sent in it's Qatols turn. When he have posted it's clear for snarfs to go etc. The manner of the roleclaim I think should be What role you sent in. OBS: Not if you got it or not. Thoughts? Angry Vigilante can't shoot tonight. In fact, tonight should be very illuminating about what happened with the Copy Cat. If I'm not mistaken, there are only 4 possible shots tonight because JOAT is dead: Vigilante, Copy Cat (CPR), Mafia, SK.
Why on earth do you want to give the mafia/SK more information right now? A mass roleclaim MIGHT make sense if we need to hunt for the Copy Cat. But what value would it give us right now? All it would do is tell the Mafia and SK which players they should be gunning for. I'd like to keep the locations of roles like the Doctor, Role Cop, and Bullet Bill as hidden as possible, thank you. (Doctor is by far the highest priority target for SK right now, Role Cop is probably second, depending on what role the SK got. Mafia also don't want to see a town Doctor in the game, depending on their role selections, Role Cop could also be very bad, and Bullet Bill is definitely extremely bad for mafia.)
On May 19 2012 22:40 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On May 19 2012 13:29 Qatol wrote:On May 19 2012 12:16 PaqMan wrote:On May 19 2012 12:02 Misder wrote: This also means that Janitor is not in those three hands, and that if there is a Janitor, then it's in scum's hand in a lower draft position. I think it's much more possible that nobody grabbed Janitor and that role is out of play. On May 19 2012 12:37 PaqMan wrote:On May 19 2012 12:31 Misder wrote:On May 19 2012 12:28 risk.nuke wrote: Insomnia and can't sleep. Qatol and Misder. Reading your conversation is... well the level of is it like watching two kids counting cones in the woods and one of the kids says wait this cone is actually two cones stuck together and the other bursts out in amazement. Oh, nice catch! You're discussing completely obvious things for even people who just glance at the thread. Yes, but 7 people haven't read the thread yet or just don't get it. For example, PaqMan recently posted in the thread after the claims and yet hasn't concluded what Qatol and I have concluded in the thread yet. And what is that? That you two think sent is scum? I'm not going to sheep my vote, I trust my read over two people who I'm not even sure are town. Which part of your logic do you think you are wrong in? Is Janitor not part of those three picks or is Sentinel town? Who is lying among these players? If Sentinel is town, then two of marvellosity, risk.nuke, and zelblade are lying. Let me draw up the conversation Misder and I are having a little more comprehensively: 1. risk.nuke claims to have taken vigilante 2nd 2. marvellosity claims to have taken mason 3rd 3. [UoN]Sentinel claims to have taken janitor 4th but got vanilla 4. zelblade claims to have taken Jack of All Trades 6th but got vanilla 5. Toadesstern claims to have taken mason 12th but got vanilla Let's assume (like you just mentioned) that Sentinel is town. Let's also assume (as you mentioned earlier) that nobody picked Janitor. 1. [UoN]Sentinel CANNOT have tried to take the role and failed to get it (he claimed to have tried to grab Janitor). This means he is lying FOR SURE! Why don't you want to lynch him? I'm going to assume you want to reconsider the idea that Janitor isn't among those 3 picks (that way Sentinel is not a liar). Let's break that situation down a bit further: 1. Let's assume risk.nuke took Janitor and marvellosity took mason. Zelblade must be lying about not getting JOAT. (So risk.nuke and zelblade are liars.) 2. Let's assume risk.nuke took Vigilante and marvellosity took Janitor. This means that Zelblade must be lying about not getting JOAT and one of two situations happened: 2a. Toadesstern is not lying about mason being gone by the time he picked. This means that the mafia must have picked mason between picks 6 and 11 (remember, we have already established that in this scenario, zelblade must be lying). We also know that marvellosity and zelblade are liars. 2b. Toadesstern is lying about picking mason (marvellosity, zelblade, and toadesstern are liars). 3. Let's assume that risk.nuke took Vigilante and marvellosity took mason. Then Sentinel got Janitor when he selected it. He is still lying and we still want to lynch him. So which situation is the one you think is the most likely? By saying Sentinel is telling the truth, you are saying for sure that two or more of zelblade, risk.nuke, and marvellosity are lying, plus either toadesstern is lying or the mafia spent a mid-level pick on mason. Doesn't that seem like a lot of resources for the mafia to be committing this early? Meanwhile, if Sentinel is lying (mafia picking JOAT), nobody else needs to be lying. If Sentinel is lying, having picked traitor, then things get more complicated: We still have at least one liar out of risk.nuke, marvellosity, and zelblade. Once again, if marvellosity is a liar, Toadesstern is also lying or the mafia spent a mid-level pick on mason.
Having said all of that, what is the most likely situation to you? Are you saying you think the mafia committed multiple members to this situation after already losing deconduo? Or is Sentinel a good lynch target? I argue that a lynch on Sentinel makes the most sense, if only to tell us whether we are looking at multiple liars or if we can move the discussion along and discuss other candidates. hinthint: As you said, there have to be 2 liars OR risk is the liar because if Risk is the liar it all works with only one liar as well. Occhams razzor says we should lynch risk. No, if risk was lying, then zelblade or marvellosity must have been lying as well. Occam's Razor says lynch Sentinel, who only required 1 liar.
On May 19 2012 23:37 Mattchew wrote: I think any townie with a gun should shoot barundar Why, exactly, is Barundar the best target?
On May 20 2012 00:11 marvellosity wrote: Please protect me
Is risk definitely telling the truth now? I think Doctor should use their best judgment on who to protect, considering the roles at stake as well as probable alignments of players. Jailer should jail Risk. Witch should consider using their ability tonight (it really should be used either tonight or Night 2), depending on the likelihood the witch thinks they will get shot/lynched before Night 2 vs. the potential chance to block the Angry Vigilante's shot.
Risk probably isn't mafia, at least. It would be completely insane (as opposed to just incredibly gutsy) for them to pull a stunt like they did with Sentinel if 2 of the 3 players in that group were scum. That being said, he isn't confirmed either.
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On May 20 2012 02:28 risk.nuke wrote: Yes thanks you three people have reminded us that the angry vigilante can not shoot tonight and I never even said he should. I ment if we're going to try to take out the serial killer with a vig then I am ill-suited for it. I'd prefer to lynch Palmar tomorrow so there can be no janitor shenanigans.
And you avoided answering what you thought about roleclaiming. Ofcourse we're not doing it tonight. What part of what I said made you believe I wanted to do it tonight? I'm not asking you to roleclaim now. I'm asking if you think it's a good move or a bad move. I think it doesn't make sense to roleclaim right now. It might make sense in the future, and I'll address it again at that time. But for right now, I'm very much against it. I assumed you were asking for a roleclaim tonight because you proposed it right now. My apologies if that wasn't your intent.
On May 20 2012 03:17 slOosh wrote: Is there a particular reason why we go bottom up rather than top down? Is it because the mafia are likely in the lower drafts so they have a harder time lying? I think the idea is that people don't know for sure if the role was taken by someone higher up if you go bottom up. But that only matters if you only do a partial mass roleclaim. Otherwise, the only rationale I can think of is that it's harder to claim you picked a role already picked but got vanilla. The second phase of the role claim would have to be a claim of whether or not you got the role you aimed for.
On May 20 2012 02:32 marvellosity wrote: What do people think of Toad?
I've often found him pretty confusing this game and he has a bunch of long-winded posts.
In Wheel of Fortune he said he was making a specific effort as town to appear more townie and cut out the shitting up the thread, but he seems to have gone back to that here to an extent. He isn't the best lynch right now, in my opinion. At least he somewhat helped resolve the Sentinel/risk.nuke/you situation by coming out and backing up your claim on a role I don't think it's very likely the mafia selected.
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I think it would be useful to have a full vote count for day 1. Just something to keep in mind for later. (Reposting this from the voting thread.)
[UoN]Sentinel: 9 Snarfs risk.nuke Qatol (from PaqMan) Misder Barundar
Toadesstern (from sandroba) Bluelightz slOosh (from PaqMan) sandroba marvellosity
risk.nuke: 8 Zephirdd Mattchew [UoN]Sentinel zelblade Toadesstern (from [UoN]Sentinel) hiro protagonist Palmar PaqMan
marvellosity: 1 talismania
PaqMan: 0
Qatol
slOosh
sandroba: 0
Toadesstern (from Bluelightz)
Bluelightz: 0
Toadesstern
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On May 20 2012 07:13 hiro protagonist wrote: One small corection to that vote list:
talismania switched from marvellosity to sent. In fact, he was the hammer, as without him, there would not have been a majority.
Im gonna have to reiterate what palmar said; I did not think scum do something like what sent did. He shot himself in the foot for no reason... well, whatever.
I think we should lynch PacMan next, or if any vig prefers, shoot him tonight. nvm, we still dont know if there is a janitor around, we should hold shots for now...
Thank you. I did miss talismania's vote switch. Vote counts are so hard to do correctly.
On May 20 2012 07:26 risk.nuke wrote: I think marv should just claim. They are just going to help draw fire from blues. What is with you and claiming? Why can't the masoned player BE a blue? There is no requirement in the mason role that the player selected be a green and not a blue. It just says "Pro-town person."
I agree with hiro protagonist that they should breadcrumb the masoned player though (there are lots of ways to do it, encryption is a good one). That way if marvellosity gets killed and flips town, we can determine the mod-confirmed innocent mason target.
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Okay I have a few thoughts to post now that night actions cannot be submitted any more, but before the day post, just in case I die.
First of all, anyone who took a hit and survived should claim it. It is very important that we get an accurate idea of how many shots were taken tonight. We NEED to know if there is an anti-town (probably mafia) CPR doctor in the game.
Second of all, we need to know if risk.nuke took a shot at anyone and wasn't roleblocked. This will also impact our death count.
Based on this, we should know how many people tried to take a shot night 1. Remember, the only roles left who can shoot night 1 are CPR and Vigilante (JOAT is dead). We should see between 2 and 4 shots, but the interesting numbers are 3 shots and 4 shots.
If there is a CPR out there, the town's first priority has to be finding it. Copy Cat was discussed a lot during the number selection phase, and I would be surprised if the mafia allowed the role to fall very far. Talismania gave us a very convenient list of the voting order cross referenced with the players voting for Sentinel:
On May 19 2012 14:51 talismania wrote: deconduo [1,1] - Mafia CPR doc (DayVigged by Mattchew) risk.nuke [4,2] - Vigilante marvellosity [7,2] - Mason [UoN]Sentinel [9,1] - Mafia Jack of All Trades (Lynched Day One) Mattchew [11,x] - Day Vigilante zelblade [12,x] - Vanilla Townie (Picked JoAT) Bluelightz [13,x] talismania [15,1] Misder [2,2] PaqMan [2,2] slOosh [10,x] Toadesstern [10,10] - Vanilla Townie (Picked Mason) Barundar [3,1] Zephirdd [3,2] hiro protagonist [3,x] Palmar [5,1] - Pardoner Snarfs [5,1] Qatol [5,1] sandroba [5,1] - Vanilla Townie (Picked Mason) Probulous - Vanilla Townie (Modkilled) Bolded players voted for risk.nuke, all others voted for sentinel or were already dead before the votes were tallied. I don't think the mafia were too keen on losing a member this early in the game, regardless of their gambit. I would be shocked if they didn't have at least 1 member and maybe both among the bolded players.
Based on this list, look for potential CPR doctor candidates. I believe zelblade's claim because it was absolutely instrumental in catching Sentinel for sure. I also think that Toadesstern's claim is likely true because it lent credibility to marvellosity when he definitely needed it. The name that should jump out at you is PaqMan. He is definitely the best lynch target for today, even if you don't belive my earlier analysis on him. If anything, just consider how likely it was that he took the Copy Cat role at his position.
However, there is one more thing you need to reconsider if you determine a Copy Cat is in the game and in mafia hands - Mattchew's innocence. I'm not saying that he's the best lynch target - he certainly isn't because he's already used his role's ability. I'm just saying you need to stop giving him "townie" credit for shooting deconduo and start looking at his posts and actions like you would any other player's. I still think it's entirely reasonable for the mafia to shoot their own member so they can get the CPR doctor at an undisclosed location in the queue without worrying about getting roleblocked. And beyond his shot on deconduo, he hasn't been a very pro-town influence in this game.
On the other hand, if there is no CPR in the game, Mattchew should drop much lower on the priority list. However, I still believe that PaqMan is the best lynch target, mostly based upon my analysis earlier and how hard he pushed to lynch risk.nuke as opposed to [UoN]Sentinel. He also has the highest potential for a dangerous role for the mafia.
As an aside, I found at least 2 mistakes in the numbers in your list, talismania - Snarfs claimed he picked [5][5], and Palmar didn't pick [5][1] as a result. Palmar's second number would have to be 2, 3, or 4.
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On May 20 2012 11:38 Snarfs wrote: So there were only 10 votes on Sentinel with 10 to lynch? This means that mafia probably doesn't have a politician, correct? Yeah this is a pretty safe assumption. It's likely in SK hands or wasn't taken. I don't think the role is strong enough to warrant a denial pick from the town and I can't imagine the mafia not using it to save Sentinel.
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On May 20 2012 13:17 Snarfs wrote:3 hours ago, I believe. Actually, 4 hours ago (well, more like 4 hours 45 minutes by this point). Deadlines for nights are 1 hour earlier than deadlines for days.
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On May 20 2012 23:03 risk.nuke wrote: There is potentially missing kp but we should turn to that AFTER roleclaims. Don't rush. So PaqMan's death was your shot? And no, missing KP is definitely more important than roleclaims. I still don't think anyone should be roleclaiming unless it is adds something to the town. What do we get out of it? I think you need to give a case for why we should be roleclaiming before I'm even going to consider supporting such a plan.
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On May 20 2012 23:27 risk.nuke wrote: I've been holding it of trying to encourage others to give some thoughts on it before I explained my reasons because only half of us are rowing or even trying and I got nullreads on far to many players. Which is very weird with three red flips.
What I mainly hope to learn from it is what did Player try to go for and does that make sense from his point of view. Mafia and town might try to denie some roles from eachother but their agendas are not aligned so a roleclaim will for example let us see suspicous picks. No, please tell us now. It isn't like we're going to not discuss your idea if you give us this information. We need to know if there's a potential CPR doctor out there. Your shot affects that calculation.
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On May 21 2012 00:49 risk.nuke wrote: Qatol what do you mean? Simple. I'm the Jailkeeper and I jailed you last night. Please explain why you haven't mentioned that the PaqMan shot wasn't your vigilante shot. You were roleblocked.
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When does this day end? Is it 48 hours from the time of the day post? Is the original scheduled time (which is ~35 hours from the time of the day post)?
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On May 21 2012 01:50 Zephirdd wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2012 01:08 Qatol wrote:On May 21 2012 00:49 risk.nuke wrote: Qatol what do you mean? Simple. I'm the Jailkeeper and I jailed you last night. Please explain why you haven't mentioned that the PaqMan shot wasn't your vigilante shot. You were roleblocked. Question: did you send the action to chaoser? Its possible that he didnt get the action if GM was offline, and afaik you must send it to both hosts. this or risk is scum and thats fucking awesome because that means I wasnt entirely wrong. Yes, I sent the action to chaoser (as well as GMarshal, of course). I just went back checked the spelling to be sure.
I've been thinking about this more and I'm not convinced risk is scum - why would he publicly announce a hit night 1 on his only remaining scum buddy? And why would he get caught in such a silly situation afterwards when all he has to do is claim it wasn't him who took the shot? It isn't like he was even under any pressure today. I want to hear from the hosts before we jump to conclusions. More coming in a bit.
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Can you confirm that you resolved risk.nuke's shot on PaqMan?
Can you confirm you sent out any PMs to people who took a hit but survived (if there were any)?
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