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Bring this back up since Sheth hasn't acknowledged it:
On May 07 2012 01:34 syllogism wrote:
It seems to me you should have PMed your #1 town read, Palmar instead if you wanted to keep that information secret so you could see how people react.
Also, if he told BC beforehand that the votes were a bluff, then BC would have known that Cephiro was very likely to receive no votes at all, and still chose to put two votes on him.
He knew that no doubt that this would bring some intense suspicions and scrutiny upon him. So I'm inclined to think that he anticipated the good probability that he was going to die and used his votes without fear of repercussion upon himself. (all pronouns in this sentence referring to BC).
Now I'd say that this looks very similar to his votes on MZ.
WBG could you confirm who had this information that you were voting MZ?
Or your thoughts on MZ in general?
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So we don't kill them not because they have a good chance of flipping townies but in order to extract more information?
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@gonzaw My reads (from PM w/ WBG).
Sandroba is because of his early sprinking votes suggestion, which allows easier manipulation by scum, and also makes it much harder to identify the true source of mislynches. Couple that with his lurking / general aloofness (I guess people bring up his meta comes into play here), and posts like http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=333034¤tpage=45#892 don't look so good.
Sheth is because claiming 5 votes on Cephiro doesn't make any sense. Prior to this I saw him suspicious based because he is so eager to comply and sheep, and there seems to be no shred of caution / discernment.
Cephiro because he is calling everyone stupid and being a jerk-face. Reluctance to share reads as well as straight up trolling I cannot see as town. That scumslip that Syllo caught is also a heavy tell as he bashes Palmer for a good 2~3 pages of his filter and would still consider him town.
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Additional read would be Meapak based on BC's vote and general silence in the thread.
On May 08 2012 01:11 chaoser wrote:Show nested quote +On May 08 2012 01:06 slOosh wrote:
So we don't kill them not because they have a good chance of flipping townies but in order to extract more information? No? We don't kill multiple people cause they HAVE a chance of flipping townie. At the same time a longer game being more information. Why are you misrepresenting what I'm saying? The two things are not exclusive of each other.
Then why are you defending the people to be lynched via proposal of this extension plan rather than showing / convincing us that they have a good chance of flipping town? In all mafia games there is no 100% certainty unless you are either scum / power role, yet you would never cite that statistical chance as an excuse not to lynch - why is it different in this case? Am I wrong in interpreting your plan as "let's not lynch multiple people to get more information?" opposed to "let's not lynch multiple people because they have a good chance of flipping town?" Because if multiple people are scummy, why not just lynch them all?
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On May 08 2012 02:03 Palmar wrote:
I'm trying to figure out if there's a gaping hole somewhere in prplhz's plan. I have no interest in mafia opinions.
Only thing I can think of is if one of the reads are wrong and there are 25 votes between 2 people, and even though they may out themselves scum won't care if it means 5 dead townies.
This however is remedied by having the 3 suspects sprinkle their votes unevenly (0,1,1,1,2) upon the 5 townies in the plan. That way, an all in by scum team can be deflected by only 1 townie death.
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On May 08 2012 05:32 prplhz wrote:
I'm think that gonzaw/slOosh might be on to something here, if there's a townie in there then he's probably dead instead of any scum. This is probably not a great plan since I thought it up so I'm a bit worried that people are just going along with it for the most. I hope everybody plays along and we kill the three and then we see what comes out of it.
It should work as long as everyone cooperates. Or as a safeguard I'm fine if like WBG moves his vote off me onto someone else, giving the 5 town in the plan (gonzaw, katina, Mr.Wiggles, syllogism, slOosh) a 10-9-9-9-8 spread. That way the worst case scenario is if both scum teams work together to save their members, in which only 1 townie dies (doubt that both scum teams will out themselves for 1 townie). The scum teams can't individually scrounge up enough votes (15votes between two members = 7,8; 10 votes between one member = 5), and 8 is the threshold value for this lynch.
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How extensively did you discuss this with WBG? I was under the impression that he wanted at least chaoser dead (had some reservations about Meapak). Could we get the PM logs?
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The OP link to night 3 is broken (linked to night 2 right now)
So I've been thinking it through and looking over Foolishness' posts / PMs because he is smart town player.
One thing I've noticed is how he thinks that distinguishing the families are important. Since it's my first time playing a game with 2 mafia families, I guess it's taken me some time to understand what this means, but I think I'm onto something / there's good discussion to be had here.
We know that there are 2 mafia families. BloodyC0bbler flipped Yokoya. Let's say for the sake of flavor the other team is Harimoto.
As already discussed, it is likely that Cephiro belongs to the Yokoya family, as well as Sandroba.
The round B results support this as we see a 2-1 split between them D1 and D2. On D3 both vote no, but this is when the thread generally agrees that they are both scum. I'm guessing it is a bus gambit as they don't have much to gain from 1-1 split (where no doubt they would be in serious danger of being lynched) or an attempt to separate themselves from each other.
For the Harimoto family I'm putting in chaoser and Meapak. This is primarily through sifting of Meapak's PMs. You can see that he is very active in PM land. He PMs BC & Cephiro, which indicates that he isn't of the Yokoya family. He doesn't PM sandroba, prplhz, chaoser, Palmer and gonzaw. Now it's understandable you wouldn't bother PMing people you think are mafia (Palmer, gonzaw, prplhz or sandroba). Yet there is no PM interaction between him and chaoser.
Furthermore, looking into his filter there is no mention of chaoser.
The same can be said of chaoser and his views on Meapak. He barely mentions him in the thread, and only with the last nights flip does Meapak suddenly become obvious town.
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Requoting this - never got a response from chaoser.
On May 08 2012 04:13 slOosh wrote:Show nested quote +On May 08 2012 01:11 chaoser wrote:On May 08 2012 01:06 slOosh wrote:
So we don't kill them not because they have a good chance of flipping townies but in order to extract more information? No? We don't kill multiple people cause they HAVE a chance of flipping townie. At the same time a longer game being more information. Why are you misrepresenting what I'm saying? The two things are not exclusive of each other. Then why are you defending the people to be lynched via proposal of this extension plan rather than showing / convincing us that they have a good chance of flipping town? In all mafia games there is no 100% certainty unless you are either scum / power role, yet you would never cite that statistical chance as an excuse not to lynch - why is it different in this case? Am I wrong in interpreting your plan as "let's not lynch multiple people to get more information?" opposed to "let's not lynch multiple people because they have a good chance of flipping town?" Because if multiple people are scummy, why not just lynch them all?
And on that note we have all the information we need - we just need the confirmation in forms of flips.
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I don't get it - did both of them die?
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Palmar how do you think they would split into the families?
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I will attest that Meapak & WBG's scum list is authentic and most likely accurate. If you want em ask Meapak, and you'll realize why WBG was so hesitant in calling Meapak scum.
On May 09 2012 12:27 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
Well that was unfortunate even if expected. However the game's over. WBG and I worked out a finalized scum list.
Team A: Cephiro, BloodyCobbler, Chaoser
Team B: Sandroba, Palmar, Mr. Wiggles
If the townies could please PM me, I've got a plan that will maximize the number of scum in round A so we can finish this quick.
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@Mr.Wiggles
Talked it over with someone, and I realized I made a logical jump.
In the thread WBG has mentioned a couple of times of his town-esque read on Meapak.
On May 08 2012 04:53 wherebugsgo wrote:
I'm fine with the prplhz plan; my only reservation is that meapak may be town but it seems more unlikely as the game goes on.
On May 08 2012 13:20 wherebugsgo wrote:
At the time I used meapak as the example because I thought he was the most likely to be town out of the 3. (I basically considered chaoser and sheth about even to flip scum and meapak more likely to be town)
I incorrectly put in my guess (that active back and forth PM with good agreement = reason for town read) as the reason for why WBG thought Meapak might be town (or asserted it like a fact rather than my opinion).
The PMs show a more agreement nature rather than a suspicious / aggressive tone (which I got to experience firsthand).
Now on that note, WBG actually followed up on what he said in his PM with you by PMing me and pressuring me, while you did nothing in thread or PM - why is this?
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Ok - then what about getting town reads? Do you think Palmar / Meapak is town/scum and what do you think of their respective lists?
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1st - who the heck is companion cube?
2nd On May 10 2012 14:04 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Right now there's 6 town and 5 scum. I'm a mislynch, so I propose we kill Palmar today, since I feel best about him being scum at this point.
I don't think we can multi-lynch effectively right now. We have people who are supposed to get lynched as soon as they hit the majority, so they can screw with a multi-lynch without any fear, essentially. Also, we're at the point where we can't unnecessarily kill any townies, or we lose control of the lynch more than we already have.
It's getting to the point where scum will have to shoot the other scum team, or they'll risk losing in a king-maker scenario where town gets to pick who wins, which I'm sure would be unsatisfactory, or to pure numbers of the other team if too much KP hits the town or town mislynches too many at once and gets their numbers wiped out. So, they should keep that in mind when they send in kills tonight.
Mr. Wiggles is fearmongering. Its 6 town, 3 scum and 2 scum. He proposes that we kill Palmar but still hasn't provided any case / reasoning at all. At all. He is considered a serious lynch candidate but is still using his time to ask other's for their opinions rather than convincing people that Palmar is scum.
And the last line - looks seriously like scum team suggesting something to the other scum team. Why would town make a suggestion for scum team and think they would listen? Town agenda conflicts with scum agenda. Most likely scum teams aligning agenda temporarily. Also betrays some understanding of the KP system. It was 1 shot D1, D2 and 2 shots D3. Straight up he assumes 2KP again.
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Sorry, I've been sick for past couple of days, rereading what I wrote I reluctantly agree that I am making no sense.
Hopefully I won't keep derping and making logical missteps.
Writing up current thoughts on this situation.
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Been tyring to look over the votes since my last post, head hurts and I don't have conclusion.
Mr Wiggles & Palmar, how do you think your scum reads divide into the two families?
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Mr. Wiggles thoughts on the flip & Meapak please?
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Palmar, could you please give your interpretation of D4 Round A - Ceph, Katina and Sandroba voted the same, indicating a 2-1 split placing sand / ceph in the scum split majority?
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If we buddy up and split yes/no and either both will end up in majority or we tie.
4yes, 4 no -> 5yes, 5no with ceph&sand split or 4 yes/no 6 no/yes with ceph & sand same answer.
No doubt scum team will try to squirm sand / ceph into minority somehow so will be thinking about it today.
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EPT
