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Pure-SC2
Profile Joined November 2011
United Kingdom1440 Posts
May 01 2012 11:29 GMT
#368
@Lazermonkey

+ Show Spoiler +
[QUOTE]On May 01 2012 18:26 Lazermonkey wrote:
I'll post the second part of my thoughts of all the players so far, first one can be found here : ).

+ Show Spoiler +
My reads so far, from most likely town to dunno relly to most likely scum:

Nova/The_Zen_Man - Like everyone already said, their actions can't be explained in any other way that they are twonies.

AcesAnoka - My prime suspect from day 1. Like a said before, Him being scum doesn't make alot of sense to me atm. Mafia would just spread votes between him and Verait. However I think that he is play is quite strange. The only thing he posted after he got him from the wedding was some excuses and this:
On April 29 2012 18:03 AcesAnoka wrote:
EDIT: Just read through the whole thread and from what i've seen Veriat looked very suspicious, if I were there my vote would've gone to him too. I already thought it was strange that he was lurking so hard and his reasoning behind his voting was not much.

This is just so strange to say imo. This would be a somewhat safe way to say that he is town because Veriat DID in fact flip scum but what if he wouldn't have? We will never know which is why I feel this post is just so unnecessary. Aces, I'm leaning town on you but not because of your play. Step up and contribute!

WhySoMuch - Orginally you were town for me. But I share the concerns of Golden against you. I am also a bit puzzled by your night play also feel. Sure you added some cool points, but why not do it later? This would ensure that scum had no time to switch their votes if you really were that afraid of getting killed.
On April 29 2012 08:50 WhySoMuch wrote:
I think I'm going to get all my thoughts out there during this night period because I believe I am a likely target for tonight's kill. Hence my posting. The Mafia isn't stupid and they know who they should kill, posting isn't really gonna give them any clues on who to kill. Obviously you could also try to level with them if you are not a power role to draw the kill as well.
If you choose not to post I don't think it's a bad thing, but I think we can use tonight to get a jump on tomorrow

I also don't like this post. Feels like you are baiting medics/jailers here.

Jailbreaker - Not posting much that can be usefull as of yet. And he just added this post:
On April 30 2012 16:13 Jailbreaker wrote:
Mordanis -
+ Show Spoiler +
All I get is a scum vibe from you on this post. But i feel like i don't have enough info on you to make a significant case against you. Seeing how I take individual posts instead of looking at the context of the posts.

will post more when i have a goodnight sleep

Which only increases my suspicion of him. If you check his filter you can also spot of mass escuses on why he is posting so "scummy" things.

His play with yomi/Verait also is pointing towards him being scum but people have already talked about that enough, which is why I don't include it in this post. Overall this is my strongest scumread atm.

I am too lazy to complete the list as I havn't really got very strong reads of Mordanis, Splinter[eP], nreekay324 and golden(don't think I missed anyone, did I?). Will update this post later on with my read on theese guys!


Marvellosity - I claimed Aces to be town not due to his play but due to the events of D1 even though his own play were quite strange. So far your play seems town to me, and my view on you/Aces is unchanged.

Mordanis - You pushed the lynch at Veriat harder than most people. Arguable maybe the hardest. You will remain town for me for at least some time.

Golden - This is a harder one, your vote D1 seems WIFOM to discuss. Either your scum and you tried to save Verait as hard as you possibly could. Not voting Verait make you look scummy. You can also be town and just didn't think he was scum. Other than that, your play seems okay. The only thing a find a little strange is that excluding the first half of D1 Jailbreaker havn't been on your list of suspicious people at all. What is your opinion on him? Do you think that he is town now and if so, why? My impression from this post is that you still find him somewhat suspicious, but it's hard to make any analysis on this matter as it is the first time you mention him since D1:
[QUOTE]On May 01 2012 11:23 O.Golden_ne wrote:

1. Nreekay324

You posted a decent argument against Jailbreaker in a spoiler on your D1 Summary post. [url=http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=331498&user=248687]Nreekay324's Filter[/url]
What would it take to change your vote from AcesAnoka (marvellosity) in the same post, to Jailbreaker? I feel like your argument against Jailbreaker looks stronger than this one against AcesAnoka (marvellosity):

[quote]
A number of arguments have been made, and not much to add to them because he hasn’t been posting much. He, like other lurkers, should be pressured D2. What got the successful D1 lynch was from pressuring lurkers (yomi called out veriat for this very reason). We need to keep this up.[/quote]
[/QUOTE]

Overall Golden seems town atm but that is subject to change.

nreekay324 - Hmm, I clearly feel your activity during D1 wasn't great at all. You only posts were mostly centered around yomi being scum, which we for sure isn't true now. Your latest post was good tho and you answered for at least some of the allegations against you. The only thing about this post is that is confusing to me is your vote on Aces:

+ Show Spoiler +
[QUOTE]On May 01 2012 01:52 nreekay324 wrote:
Jailbreaker
1) Only vote on yomi, and yomi was shot night cycle.
2) Posts don’t seem to have a lot of content, there’s a lot of summary and weak accusations/ questioning.
3) This quote in particular;
[QUOTE]On April 29 2012 04:09 Jailbreaker wrote:
nonononononono water you guys doin? you planet all wrong.
Can't you see that other players are trying to rush people into a decision so fast??
Just because we dun have a majority vote, doesn't mean we should rush.
Even though I voted for Yomi so fast in the game, i didn't rush. Just like what golden says, stay clam and dont panic.
I know its fail logic right here, no apollo-gies here on my part.
[/QUOTE]
This was a decent amount of time before the lynch-veriat train really started rolling, jailbreaker tries to advocate against it. He doesn’t provide any case in favor of Veriat however, and just side-steps the issue.
4) And then this,
[QUOTE]On April 30 2012 16:13 Jailbreaker wrote:
Since I voted to horribly wrong, I'm going to delay my vote until it is closer to the deadline.
[/QUOTE]
It’s like jailbreaker wants to let other people make cases for him, so that he can choose the safest one to vote for and thus remain safe.
4) Was on Veriat’s “scum” list. I”ll defer to whysomuch for this;
[QUOTE]On April 29 2012 09:12 WhySoMuch wrote:
[QUOTE]On April 28 2012 18:26 Veriat wrote:
Ok here are my thoughts on who are the scum:

The_Zen_Man
nreekay324
Jailbreaker

Acesanoka
+ Show Spoiler +
A number of arguments have been made, and not much to add to them because he hasn’t been posting much. He, like other lurkers, should be pressured D2. What got the successful D1 lynch was from pressuring lurkers (yomi called out veriat for this very reason). We need to keep this up.


##vote: AcesAnoka
##FOS: Jailbreaker
[/QUOTE]

Sense is not made here. I don't really understand why you are voting Aces at all. Overall, your gameplay is at times good and at times quite confusing and I'm not sure whether you newbie town or scum.

Splinter - Lurking at the moment, and havn't been posting anything of substance since D1, where he posted a case vs Aces. He was the one who started the suspicion on Aces. Can't do to much analysis in this case as it's very WIFOM. Either he is scum and wanted to capitalize on the confusion in Aces posts or he was town and thought the play in fact was scummy. Needs to be stepping up hardcore.

Conclusion/TL;DR

Townies:
The_Zen_Man
Pure

Dunno yet:
O.Golden_ne(although I'm leaning town here)
Marvellosity(same as above)
Mordanis(same as above)
WhySoMuch
nreekay324

Scum:
Splinter[eP](due to lurking)
Jailbreaker(strongest read due to major holes and confusion in play)



Hi, just one thing - on your comments against Golden and his voting behaviour at the end of Day 1. I really don't see a scum play here, I actually see the opposite. Golden had a case against Aces (which was closely aligned with my own thoughts on him), and prior to the shift onto Veriat had already stated his suspicions on him. At the time I voted for Veriat, I had scum readings on both Veriat and Aces, however did feel stronger towards my read on Veriat which was what influenced my vote. When I read Golden's filter at the time, he wanted people to explain why they thought Veriat was more suspicious than Aces which is exactly what I wanted as well. He made his vote in the hour leading up to the deadline and I cannot see a scum motivation for this as it sealed the fate of Veriat the scum to be lynched. If he was scum, there was absolutely no reason to make that vote.

Other than that, I have similar reads to you (I need more from Marvellosity at this stage, and have nreekay as a possible scum read) and like your contribution.
"Every time I visit community sites, I'm just embarrassed. There's so much witch hunting and name calling and arguing and gossip. Misogynist comments against women. It's just embarrassing." – Tasteless
Pure-SC2
Profile Joined November 2011
United Kingdom1440 Posts
May 01 2012 13:07 GMT
#372
@marvellosity

In answer to your question, no I'm not sure that he's scum and not just bad town. I wasn't certain about Veriat either, but felt that I was basing my vote on what I classed as scummy behaviour, which I feel can be applied to Jailbreaker as well.

On your second nagging feeling, it's an interesting one that I was grappling with yesterday. So I'm going to go over the thoughts I had around this.

What do we know? Veriat wasn't very good at being mafia. He was suspicious enough to get a majority vote on day 1. This means that the actions he did make (i.e. his posts) potentially contain more info in the shape of scum slips, or inexperienced scum posts based on whatever co-ordination is going on between the scum team.

He posted scum reads on 3 players; The_Zen_Man, nreekay and Jailbreaker. The reasoning behind each of these was bad (a big part of the suspicions against him). This came after there were 2 votes on him, and there were 2 on Aces at around the same time. This came just after he admitted he was looking pretty scummy, so I think we can assume he was feeling the pressure.

So the questions I have from this based on Veriat being bad/inexperienced mafia who is under some pressure and already admitting he looks scummy:
1). Is it time to try and distance yourself from your scum buddies by posting your own reads that contain 1 or 2 of them? (I think it unlikely to include 2 of them, but could very well include 1)
2). Or, do you try to create hollow cases against townies to try and move the heat off to someone else?
- Note: I have a town read on The_Zen_Man so it makes sense for him to be number 1 on Veriats scum list regardless of the answer above.

What are the motivations behind his scum read post?


In his scum post, Veriat has this to say about WhySoMuch:
On a side note i did find Why_So_Much's playstyle kind of off, but i don't think he's scum, because then why would you vote for him?

I find this statement interesting in the context of knowing Veriat is scum, and bad/inexperienced scum at that. It's WIFOM, but what is his motivation for saying he doesn't think WhySoMuch is scum at this point? Maybe it's too obvious, but it's the only other read he makes.
"Every time I visit community sites, I'm just embarrassed. There's so much witch hunting and name calling and arguing and gossip. Misogynist comments against women. It's just embarrassing." – Tasteless
Pure-SC2
Profile Joined November 2011
United Kingdom1440 Posts
May 01 2012 13:23 GMT
#375
Artanis - I think Jailbreaker hasn't voted yet also...
"Every time I visit community sites, I'm just embarrassed. There's so much witch hunting and name calling and arguing and gossip. Misogynist comments against women. It's just embarrassing." – Tasteless
Pure-SC2
Profile Joined November 2011
United Kingdom1440 Posts
May 01 2012 13:30 GMT
#378
We have a serious lurker problem right now with both Jailbreaker and Splinter.

Splinter was going to post when he got home from work and never did. What does this say? Maybe not much but he's fallen into heavily lurking state after being quite active during day 1.

Jailbreaker has made absolutely no response to the cases against him.
"Every time I visit community sites, I'm just embarrassed. There's so much witch hunting and name calling and arguing and gossip. Misogynist comments against women. It's just embarrassing." – Tasteless
Pure-SC2
Profile Joined November 2011
United Kingdom1440 Posts
May 01 2012 15:29 GMT
#384
I'm heading out in a few hours and am not likely to be online at the voting deadline. I will try and keep an eye on the thread via mobile but am not able to guarantee it.

Based on all the information to date, my strongest read is on Jailbreaker. I share the same niggles Marvellosity stated earlier, but also think that getting a successfully mafia lynch day 1 has us in a great position today.

If Jailbreaker flips town? Well as he's such an easy target we're not likely to learn too much from who voted, which is my biggest concern. But based on a series of suspicious posts, and no response at all to the cases made against him in conjunction with lurking, he makes by the far the best lynching candidate we have.

##Vote: Jailbreaker
"Every time I visit community sites, I'm just embarrassed. There's so much witch hunting and name calling and arguing and gossip. Misogynist comments against women. It's just embarrassing." – Tasteless
Pure-SC2
Profile Joined November 2011
United Kingdom1440 Posts
May 01 2012 15:42 GMT
#387
I agree that miss-lynching is bad, you can't really argue that.

However, we are ahead of the game with our successful lynch day 1, which makes our day 2 lynch result less critical, but it's still obviously important.

marvellosity, if you're not getting a scum read on Jailbreaker or are more suspicious of someone else, who would you want to lynch in his place? You're in an interesting position as you arrived into the game late, and the person you replaced created a lot of suspicion. You've done a good job so far of alleviating that suspicion but we still don't have much to go off. You're obviously concerned with the result of this lynch, so give us something more to work with if you aren't supporting the lynch on Jailbreaker.
"Every time I visit community sites, I'm just embarrassed. There's so much witch hunting and name calling and arguing and gossip. Misogynist comments against women. It's just embarrassing." – Tasteless
Pure-SC2
Profile Joined November 2011
United Kingdom1440 Posts
May 01 2012 21:54 GMT
#422
I mentioned I'd be out tonight. Just checking in pre deadline and nothing more to add at this stage.
"Every time I visit community sites, I'm just embarrassed. There's so much witch hunting and name calling and arguing and gossip. Misogynist comments against women. It's just embarrassing." – Tasteless
Pure-SC2
Profile Joined November 2011
United Kingdom1440 Posts
May 01 2012 22:05 GMT
#427
I don't get why people sign up to these games just to waste everyones time.

Well, we have some work to do.
"Every time I visit community sites, I'm just embarrassed. There's so much witch hunting and name calling and arguing and gossip. Misogynist comments against women. It's just embarrassing." – Tasteless
Pure-SC2
Profile Joined November 2011
United Kingdom1440 Posts
May 01 2012 22:13 GMT
#433
I just don't understand what else we were meant to do there. The same thing happened in the previous game that I played in, a player plays obviously scummy, becomes the obvious and easy hit, and flips town.

Time to do a complete re-evaluation.
"Every time I visit community sites, I'm just embarrassed. There's so much witch hunting and name calling and arguing and gossip. Misogynist comments against women. It's just embarrassing." – Tasteless
Pure-SC2
Profile Joined November 2011
United Kingdom1440 Posts
May 01 2012 22:14 GMT
#436
You can post at night, just don't do stupid things like giving all your reads. If you want to do that, post just before the night post.
"Every time I visit community sites, I'm just embarrassed. There's so much witch hunting and name calling and arguing and gossip. Misogynist comments against women. It's just embarrassing." – Tasteless
Pure-SC2
Profile Joined November 2011
United Kingdom1440 Posts
May 01 2012 22:23 GMT
#440
marvellosity could be scum, he plays the whole "I'm not sure about voting for him" but does anyway, and then drops the line "should've trusted my instinct" in what looks like an attempt to ensure his town cred.
"Every time I visit community sites, I'm just embarrassed. There's so much witch hunting and name calling and arguing and gossip. Misogynist comments against women. It's just embarrassing." – Tasteless
Pure-SC2
Profile Joined November 2011
United Kingdom1440 Posts
May 02 2012 08:35 GMT
#454
Sadly, it looks like we learn more from Splinter's modkill (and town flip) than we do from Jailbreaker's lynch (and town flip).
"Every time I visit community sites, I'm just embarrassed. There's so much witch hunting and name calling and arguing and gossip. Misogynist comments against women. It's just embarrassing." – Tasteless
Pure-SC2
Profile Joined November 2011
United Kingdom1440 Posts
May 02 2012 12:45 GMT
#456
Well, I'm going through it all (haven't had as much time for this as I'd hoped so far), but believe I have it narrowed down to 2 most likely, and 3 not as likely but still suspicious reads. That's where I'm focusing my attentions for now.

You're very keen to get scum reads during the night, any particular reason why?
"Every time I visit community sites, I'm just embarrassed. There's so much witch hunting and name calling and arguing and gossip. Misogynist comments against women. It's just embarrassing." – Tasteless
Pure-SC2
Profile Joined November 2011
United Kingdom1440 Posts
May 02 2012 12:47 GMT
#458
Our two strongest lurkers are now gone, but it seems others have now gone quiet. Where is everyone?
"Every time I visit community sites, I'm just embarrassed. There's so much witch hunting and name calling and arguing and gossip. Misogynist comments against women. It's just embarrassing." – Tasteless
Pure-SC2
Profile Joined November 2011
United Kingdom1440 Posts
May 02 2012 12:53 GMT
#460
Well, right now I'm more concerned about doing my own analysis and preparing a post for just prior to the night post. I'm not comfortable posting my reads right now 1). Because I want to go through it further, 2). Because I don't want it available to the mafia.
"Every time I visit community sites, I'm just embarrassed. There's so much witch hunting and name calling and arguing and gossip. Misogynist comments against women. It's just embarrassing." – Tasteless
Pure-SC2
Profile Joined November 2011
United Kingdom1440 Posts
May 02 2012 13:03 GMT
#462
Yea, I'm looking into that but am concerned I have the same problem.
"Every time I visit community sites, I'm just embarrassed. There's so much witch hunting and name calling and arguing and gossip. Misogynist comments against women. It's just embarrassing." – Tasteless
Pure-SC2
Profile Joined November 2011
United Kingdom1440 Posts
May 02 2012 14:16 GMT
#464
@Golden - You had a strong opinion and case on Aces originally on Day 1, and some uncertainties on marvellosity since. I'd like your read on Aces/marvellosity so far.

As an aside, I really don't like the way replacements work as we don't have any voting information for Aces/Marvellosity for day 1 which is the most significant evidence we have to date, and with Aces being so scummy in his play it just adds confusion regardless of what alignment marvellosity is.
"Every time I visit community sites, I'm just embarrassed. There's so much witch hunting and name calling and arguing and gossip. Misogynist comments against women. It's just embarrassing." – Tasteless
Pure-SC2
Profile Joined November 2011
United Kingdom1440 Posts
May 02 2012 14:58 GMT
#466
On May 02 2012 23:43 marvellosity wrote:
Zen: I'll go back and take a look. Anything further to add or still much the same?

Pure: imo voting information is simply a not-that-strong heuristic at this stage. Scummy/townie motivations in posting is in most cases the primary evidence. FYI, I have not read Aces' filter this game. Perhaps I should. The impressions I get from the cases against him (me) from other filters is that he was a weak player and lurky. Of which I am neither.


I disagree. If the day 1 vote had lynched a townie, I would agree with this. But the fact is we lynched a mafia. That means that the voting results are more significant, and the fact we have one player who didn't have to show a vote is a hole in that as far as I'm concerned which I find frustrating. Oh well, can't be changed.

Why do I think it's more significant? Because it gives you this picture to look at which then allows you to focus your investigations. And when you include the info on who has flipped town since, and factor in your own town reads, then suddenly the focus becomes more more specific.
"Every time I visit community sites, I'm just embarrassed. There's so much witch hunting and name calling and arguing and gossip. Misogynist comments against women. It's just embarrassing." – Tasteless
Pure-SC2
Profile Joined November 2011
United Kingdom1440 Posts
May 02 2012 15:11 GMT
#470
On May 03 2012 00:05 marvellosity wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 02 2012 23:58 Pure-SC2 wrote:

Why do I think it's more significant? Because it gives you this picture to look at which then allows you to focus your investigations. And when you include the info on who has flipped town since, and factor in your own town reads, then suddenly the focus becomes more more specific.


Further to the bolded in particular, I am not approaching my scumhunting like this.


I was referring to myself there. I've done complete filter reviews and have found so much contradictory posting so far. I.e., someone will have done a few things which independently look suspicious to me, but have also done things that look obviously townie to me. Therefore I'm looking at ways to focus my investigations on who I believe are the most likely scum candidates, and trying to find the pattern that exists somewhere.

I would hope we are all doing scumhunting in our own ways so that when we start posting our analysis, we can (hopefully) get independent corroboration of our reads.
"Every time I visit community sites, I'm just embarrassed. There's so much witch hunting and name calling and arguing and gossip. Misogynist comments against women. It's just embarrassing." – Tasteless
Pure-SC2
Profile Joined November 2011
United Kingdom1440 Posts
May 02 2012 16:06 GMT
#472
@marvellosity - Honestly, I'm struggling with WhySoMuch. I have found many of his actions suspicious (which is what you've spoilered there), but he's also posted several things which seem extremely town, leading me to getting mass confusion from his points and his reads, further leading me to wanting to ignore him at this stage.

The specific things I've found townie:
- Puts me and The_Zen_Man on a never vote list. Now I know I am town, and I have a town read on TZM, and therefore I can't see a mafia stating this.
- Stated his strong read that Splinter was town. Again, I can't see a scum motivation for stating this. *unless as mafia he was anticipating the mod kill/town flip and seeking to gain cred that way - but thats just WIFOM.

I really struggle with his odd logic, and as such I can't get a solid read. I'd be interested if anyone has any further suspicions against him, TZM made some good points yesterday. The vote flipping seems way more suspicious to me than Golden's vote switch that ended up lynching Veriat.

I had a theory earlier that either him or golden was scum, i.e., if one flipped town the other would flip scum, but I'm not so sure on that any more as I can't make a strong case against either.

There is a chance (and I've stated this before) that he is playing some deep deception here. I can't confirm it from the information available though so leaving it at that for now.
"Every time I visit community sites, I'm just embarrassed. There's so much witch hunting and name calling and arguing and gossip. Misogynist comments against women. It's just embarrassing." – Tasteless
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