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On April 27 2012 17:41 Snarfs wrote:Show nested quote +On April 27 2012 17:32 phagga wrote:prplhz: He is suspicious at least. Had Zentor turned scum, he would have been semi-confirmed town after tunneling him so hard. Now it's possible he just used it as an excuse to not participate in scum hunting D2. He voted Snarfs on D1 without any reason after attacking Zentor already. + Show Spoiler +On April 24 2012 00:52 prplhz wrote:Show nested quote +On April 23 2012 23:56 SamuelLJackson wrote:
"Just because I'm attacking your argument for him being town doesn't mean that I think that he's scum. I am suspicious of him, but for other reasons."
Reasons other than him possibly being scum? And you want to lynch him for those reasons?
How about you stop telling me what you are not saying and actually tell me wtf you ARE saying. "being scum" is a pretty good reason for lynching people but I don't know if anybody is scum. I think that his defense of MrZentor was really weird and he's no where near as active as I'd like him to be. I don't want to lynch him as much as I want to lynch MrZentor right now but I think that a lot of people still need to speak up before I can make my mind up. MrZentor is the best thing right now in my opinion but I don't think it's bulletproof at all. On April 24 2012 01:36 prplhz wrote:
##Vote Snarfs On April 24 2012 05:32 prplhz wrote:
Yea I'm against Radfield/Ace/SamuelLJackson lynches too, lets stop even discussing them.
90 minutes until lynch, I'll be here up until deadline (horay eurofriendly deadlines!)
Honestly, if I had a gun I'd shoot MrZentor. His initial aggression seems fake to me and he's pretty much quit this game and apparently doesn't want to be a part of the lynch. It's just too much bullshit and I see no explanation for this. I think he should be our go-to-lynch today.
@phagga Why are you buddying me? Especially, you complain when marvellosity voted for Snarfs because he did so on bad reasonable, but I never ever put any reasonable at all and you didn't complain about that. prplhz, you never explained why you voted snarf, what was up with that? Also note how he was active at game start, but then gradually got less active, and has been lurking almost all of D2 (his last post is over 30 hours old). All this together make him suspicious for me, but it's not enough to lynch him today. I really look forward to hear some scum suspects from him including some reasoning why. Part of the quotes you linked include this snippet: Show nested quote +Yea I'm against Radfield/Ace/SamuelLJackson lynches too, lets stop even discussing them. Why would scum ever advocate against the lynching of strong town players? The only reason would be to buy town-cred, but there are ways to do that without specifically telling people not to lynch strong town players. This sentence screams town to me.
True. On the other side, a rad/ace/hydra lynch was unlikely anyway at this point, so it would have been an easy way to get towncred without preventing a mislynch.
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On April 27 2012 17:32 phagga wrote:
Concerning Sbrubbles: He has never been a man with a huge filter, see Aperture as example. The fact that he tries to come up with his own original points and the way he pushes VE I'm leaning town on him.
I hear people saying that sbrubbles is Town and that he´s usually posting this little, but I still want to see more from him. He´s the only lurker right now.
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I'm still in the game.
I don't really know why I voted Snarfs, I think strongandbig had a decent case on him and I was pretty frustrated with how the game was going.
I have scum reads but I need to read up on the thread and I'm not posting reads during the night. I'm most likely just going to sheep Radfield from now on though, but he's probably dead tomorrow.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
I agree I will most likely be tonight's target. Vigilantes should be firing tonight.
If I DO die, nothing should be concluded about VE's alignment from that. There is simply too much WIFOM to trace my death to VE's innocence or guilt.
On April 27 2012 11:10 Snarfs wrote:Show nested quote +On April 27 2012 11:01 Radfield wrote:
Does anyone disagree with my setup assessment? With zero claimed roleblocks and no SK, I think we can safely assume that we have 1 goon 1 godfather and 1 power role. I don't like putting too much weight into setup speculation. Bugs is neither going to confirm nor deny how many scum we have. Whether we have 2 or 3 mafia, we still need to start by lynching 2.
This is not setup speculation. We are dealing with facts.
No one has claimed roleblocked, this is a fact.
Only 1 KP last night, this is a fact.
We can deduce from this that there is very likely no roleblocker, and most likely no Serial Killer. That only leaves one possible setup: 1 goon, 1 godfather, 1 town power role. That is very important.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Actually, I suppose it is a bit of speculation, but it's pretty well grounded. Mostly I just want people to double check my work.
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Radfield, why do you assume so much about the setup? Yes, there are most likely no jailors, roleblockers or SKs, we´d have known by now, but so far there´s nothing talking against the presence of another cop, a vigilante and/or masons. You said yourself that vigilantes shouldn´t shoot N1 so that we will know if there is an SK, and as for Masons, there´s no reason they should have claimed allready. D1 makes them targets, D2 only MrZentor called them out to claim, even though his defence wouldn´t have helped one bit by the presence of Masons, and claiming during this night is suicide. We have no idea if there are any masons. If there are, I would expect them to claim tomorrow, no sooner. With only 1 scumKP and so few lynches, it makes sense for them to wait until there are a bit fewer people in the game. The same with the cop, if he doesn´t expect to die to a lynch or a scumhit, then waiting to present a second check is better than claiming prematurely.
There are most likely no jailors, SKs or roleblockers, but that´s all we know right now.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Actually, we know how the setup is derived: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=C9++
If you accept that there is no mafia roleblocker, that leaves only 3 possible setups. If you further accept that there is no Serial Killer, that only leaves 1 possible setup. Agreed?
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On April 27 2012 19:57 Radfield wrote:Actually, we know how the setup is derived: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=C9++If you accept that there is no mafia roleblocker, that leaves only 3 possible setups. If you further accept that there is no Serial Killer, that only leaves 1 possible setup. Agreed?
Where´s the Miller in C9++? Where´s the Innocent Child in this one? We know that the C9++ setup isn´t used exactly as written, so using it to "prove" the only possible setup is fooling ourselves. We are fairly sure there are is no jailors, SKs or roleblockers, that´s it, everything beyond that is just guesswork.
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United Kingdom36160 Posts
On April 27 2012 19:57 Radfield wrote:Actually, we know how the setup is derived: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=C9++If you accept that there is no mafia roleblocker, that leaves only 3 possible setups. If you further accept that there is no Serial Killer, that only leaves 1 possible setup. Agreed?
How is this helping us?
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United Kingdom36160 Posts
On April 27 2012 17:32 phagga wrote:
Marv: From staying under the radar to blatantly sheeping Ace, he has pretty much not put any effort into finding scum. His case on Radfield centered around Rad defending Zentor. I know people say he is a good late game player, but that's also a great excuse for a scum to just do nothing the first 3 days until it's almost too late for town. Also, there is quite some material of every player to analyze, so I don't really see why he should not try to come up with is own reads by now.
That made me giggle, I'm not sure anyone said that actually ^^
I'd agree that I haven't done as much scumhunting as I'd like, I've been kinda stuck pointing out inconsistencies so far (while potentially useful, it's not really scumhunting). This game has been quite odd I feel with the no lynch day 1 followed by the practically unanimous Zentor lynch - which clogs up filters because it's quite easy to take stances on him and doesn't really indicate much imo. VE seems to come and go, often looking like he's finally ready to get involved before fading away again. People seem to be having a go at Ace for what is as far as I can see quite correct, if abrasive, logic.
That said, this evening I will do my best to try to make sense of this game and hopefully find a good read.
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Guys, I'm here and reading the thread right now. Zentor was town, but in hindsight I still think he had a good (>30% chance) of being scum and hopefully we'll be more focused without him around.
In terms of setup, it feels very unlikely that there'd be only 2 scum. If my calculations are correct and the setup is 11 townies and 2 scum, town can random lynch every day and have 40% win rate, which is absurdly high for a random lynch policy. Then again, C9++ accomodates for that, so I don't know.
If anyone wants me to comment on something, I'm here.
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brubbles, could you man up and make a case on your most scummiest target?
Next: Does Ace's play match if you read it as a scum perspective?
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@Ace
+ Show Spoiler +On April 27 2012 10:55 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On April 27 2012 10:35 Radfield wrote:First two are just you stating Zentor didn't care about defending himself, which he obviously didn't. No one can dispute that(though bluelightz actually tries  ). The third has some points, though mainly just conjecture about Zentor's actions. The thing is, bluelightz defended Zentor long before his lynch was assured, and also actually responded to two of your posts that you linked. Eventually he just stops focusing on Zentor as his lynch was pretty much assured, and moves on to looking for scum. A completely appropriate and townie thing to do. He never just barges in and calls everyone stupid for voting an obvious townie, nor does he try to set himself up to look good after Zentor's death. He simply refuses to vote for someone he has a town read on. I don't get why you think that is scummy. Ok let me try this again. BL shows up "defending" Mr.Zentor's lynch long before it happens. However, he never talks about why Zentor must be Town. I don't see it in any of his posts so if they are there show me. It's literally "I dont think a Townie would do this" which isn't a real defense. If he REALLY thinks Zentor is innocent why would he not destroy any of the posts against him? He didn't. This is why I said he comes off as Scum knowing Zentor is innocent ahead of time. He looks like he's defending Zentor but he really isn't. The second bolded doesn't make him Town. "Looking for Scum" is subjective as even Scum can look for Scum. I don't think you are looking at the big picture here. Once again, look at the chain of events the way they went down. Once you showed up with a post on VE, BL shows up with a 19 minutes later with a post calling out a Scum team of VE, Forumite and phagga. His next post after that is calling out Sbrubbles as Scum. He even tries to throw me in there and says me and Sbrubbles must be talking in QT. That's 5 players in not even a quarter of a day that he calls out before Zentor is even flipped and you want to believe he was actually Scum hunting. Seriously this is very simple: If he truly believed Zentor was Town and he is also Town then why would he focus his efforts on calling out 5 other players instead of saving Zentor? He had ample time. He also should know that calling 5 players out isn't going to lead to all of them voting for whoever he thinks is Scum. This was a feigned attempt to look like he was defending a player and attempting to find Scum when he did neither.
I feel like his town Zentor read was a gut read, and, frankly, Zentor himself wasn't resisting the lynch, so it was hard to defend him. I would argue that Bluelightz's intentions were simply to not let the discussion die out. Just because there's a good candidade is in place, it doesn't mean we should cease talking.
I don't agree with his reads nor how he pushes them, but I don't think he's scum. He's being erratic, but, unlike Zentor, he's being much more accusative.
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On April 28 2012 00:13 Sbrubbles wrote:@Ace + Show Spoiler +On April 27 2012 10:55 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On April 27 2012 10:35 Radfield wrote:First two are just you stating Zentor didn't care about defending himself, which he obviously didn't. No one can dispute that(though bluelightz actually tries ). The third has some points, though mainly just conjecture about Zentor's actions. The thing is, bluelightz defended Zentor long before his lynch was assured, and also actually responded to two of your posts that you linked. Eventually he just stops focusing on Zentor as his lynch was pretty much assured, and moves on to looking for scum. A completely appropriate and townie thing to do. He never just barges in and calls everyone stupid for voting an obvious townie, nor does he try to set himself up to look good after Zentor's death. He simply refuses to vote for someone he has a town read on. I don't get why you think that is scummy. Ok let me try this again. BL shows up "defending" Mr.Zentor's lynch long before it happens. However, he never talks about why Zentor must be Town. I don't see it in any of his posts so if they are there show me. It's literally "I dont think a Townie would do this" which isn't a real defense. If he REALLY thinks Zentor is innocent why would he not destroy any of the posts against him? He didn't. This is why I said he comes off as Scum knowing Zentor is innocent ahead of time. He looks like he's defending Zentor but he really isn't. The second bolded doesn't make him Town. "Looking for Scum" is subjective as even Scum can look for Scum. I don't think you are looking at the big picture here. Once again, look at the chain of events the way they went down. Once you showed up with a post on VE, BL shows up with a 19 minutes later with a post calling out a Scum team of VE, Forumite and phagga. His next post after that is calling out Sbrubbles as Scum. He even tries to throw me in there and says me and Sbrubbles must be talking in QT. That's 5 players in not even a quarter of a day that he calls out before Zentor is even flipped and you want to believe he was actually Scum hunting. Seriously this is very simple: If he truly believed Zentor was Town and he is also Town then why would he focus his efforts on calling out 5 other players instead of saving Zentor? He had ample time. He also should know that calling 5 players out isn't going to lead to all of them voting for whoever he thinks is Scum. This was a feigned attempt to look like he was defending a player and attempting to find Scum when he did neither. I feel like his town Zentor read was a gut read, and, frankly, Zentor himself wasn't resisting the lynch, so it was hard to defend him. I would argue that Bluelightz's intentions were simply to not let the discussion die out. Just because there's a good candidade is in place, it doesn't mean we should cease talking. I don't agree with his reads nor how he pushes them, but I don't think he's scum. He's being erratic, but, unlike Zentor, he's being much more accusative.
Like I said in my previous post's about this topic: I tried to stop the Zentor train but everyone never bothered to read his meta or believe me.
Could you answer my question about Ace? Also, who would list as your top 3 scum candidates?
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United Kingdom36160 Posts
On April 28 2012 00:13 Sbrubbles wrote:@Ace + Show Spoiler +On April 27 2012 10:55 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On April 27 2012 10:35 Radfield wrote:First two are just you stating Zentor didn't care about defending himself, which he obviously didn't. No one can dispute that(though bluelightz actually tries ). The third has some points, though mainly just conjecture about Zentor's actions. The thing is, bluelightz defended Zentor long before his lynch was assured, and also actually responded to two of your posts that you linked. Eventually he just stops focusing on Zentor as his lynch was pretty much assured, and moves on to looking for scum. A completely appropriate and townie thing to do. He never just barges in and calls everyone stupid for voting an obvious townie, nor does he try to set himself up to look good after Zentor's death. He simply refuses to vote for someone he has a town read on. I don't get why you think that is scummy. Ok let me try this again. BL shows up "defending" Mr.Zentor's lynch long before it happens. However, he never talks about why Zentor must be Town. I don't see it in any of his posts so if they are there show me. It's literally "I dont think a Townie would do this" which isn't a real defense. If he REALLY thinks Zentor is innocent why would he not destroy any of the posts against him? He didn't. This is why I said he comes off as Scum knowing Zentor is innocent ahead of time. He looks like he's defending Zentor but he really isn't. The second bolded doesn't make him Town. "Looking for Scum" is subjective as even Scum can look for Scum. I don't think you are looking at the big picture here. Once again, look at the chain of events the way they went down. Once you showed up with a post on VE, BL shows up with a 19 minutes later with a post calling out a Scum team of VE, Forumite and phagga. His next post after that is calling out Sbrubbles as Scum. He even tries to throw me in there and says me and Sbrubbles must be talking in QT. That's 5 players in not even a quarter of a day that he calls out before Zentor is even flipped and you want to believe he was actually Scum hunting. Seriously this is very simple: If he truly believed Zentor was Town and he is also Town then why would he focus his efforts on calling out 5 other players instead of saving Zentor? He had ample time. He also should know that calling 5 players out isn't going to lead to all of them voting for whoever he thinks is Scum. This was a feigned attempt to look like he was defending a player and attempting to find Scum when he did neither. I feel like his town Zentor read was a gut read, and, frankly, Zentor himself wasn't resisting the lynch, so it was hard to defend him. I would argue that Bluelightz's intentions were simply to not let the discussion die out. Just because there's a good candidade is in place, it doesn't mean we should cease talking. I don't agree with his reads nor how he pushes them, but I don't think he's scum. He's being erratic, but, unlike Zentor, he's being much more accusative.
The last thing I think of when I look at Ace's play is erratic. Precisely the opposite in fact.
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On April 28 2012 00:21 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On April 28 2012 00:13 Sbrubbles wrote:@Ace + Show Spoiler +On April 27 2012 10:55 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On April 27 2012 10:35 Radfield wrote:First two are just you stating Zentor didn't care about defending himself, which he obviously didn't. No one can dispute that(though bluelightz actually tries ). The third has some points, though mainly just conjecture about Zentor's actions. The thing is, bluelightz defended Zentor long before his lynch was assured, and also actually responded to two of your posts that you linked. Eventually he just stops focusing on Zentor as his lynch was pretty much assured, and moves on to looking for scum. A completely appropriate and townie thing to do. He never just barges in and calls everyone stupid for voting an obvious townie, nor does he try to set himself up to look good after Zentor's death. He simply refuses to vote for someone he has a town read on. I don't get why you think that is scummy. Ok let me try this again. BL shows up "defending" Mr.Zentor's lynch long before it happens. However, he never talks about why Zentor must be Town. I don't see it in any of his posts so if they are there show me. It's literally "I dont think a Townie would do this" which isn't a real defense. If he REALLY thinks Zentor is innocent why would he not destroy any of the posts against him? He didn't. This is why I said he comes off as Scum knowing Zentor is innocent ahead of time. He looks like he's defending Zentor but he really isn't. The second bolded doesn't make him Town. "Looking for Scum" is subjective as even Scum can look for Scum. I don't think you are looking at the big picture here. Once again, look at the chain of events the way they went down. Once you showed up with a post on VE, BL shows up with a 19 minutes later with a post calling out a Scum team of VE, Forumite and phagga. His next post after that is calling out Sbrubbles as Scum. He even tries to throw me in there and says me and Sbrubbles must be talking in QT. That's 5 players in not even a quarter of a day that he calls out before Zentor is even flipped and you want to believe he was actually Scum hunting. Seriously this is very simple: If he truly believed Zentor was Town and he is also Town then why would he focus his efforts on calling out 5 other players instead of saving Zentor? He had ample time. He also should know that calling 5 players out isn't going to lead to all of them voting for whoever he thinks is Scum. This was a feigned attempt to look like he was defending a player and attempting to find Scum when he did neither. I feel like his town Zentor read was a gut read, and, frankly, Zentor himself wasn't resisting the lynch, so it was hard to defend him. I would argue that Bluelightz's intentions were simply to not let the discussion die out. Just because there's a good candidade is in place, it doesn't mean we should cease talking. I don't agree with his reads nor how he pushes them, but I don't think he's scum. He's being erratic, but, unlike Zentor, he's being much more accusative. The last thing I think of when I look at Ace's play is erratic. Precisely the opposite in fact.
I meant Bluelightz.
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United Kingdom36160 Posts
On April 28 2012 00:28 Sbrubbles wrote:Show nested quote +On April 28 2012 00:21 marvellosity wrote:On April 28 2012 00:13 Sbrubbles wrote:@Ace + Show Spoiler +On April 27 2012 10:55 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On April 27 2012 10:35 Radfield wrote:First two are just you stating Zentor didn't care about defending himself, which he obviously didn't. No one can dispute that(though bluelightz actually tries ). The third has some points, though mainly just conjecture about Zentor's actions. The thing is, bluelightz defended Zentor long before his lynch was assured, and also actually responded to two of your posts that you linked. Eventually he just stops focusing on Zentor as his lynch was pretty much assured, and moves on to looking for scum. A completely appropriate and townie thing to do. He never just barges in and calls everyone stupid for voting an obvious townie, nor does he try to set himself up to look good after Zentor's death. He simply refuses to vote for someone he has a town read on. I don't get why you think that is scummy. Ok let me try this again. BL shows up "defending" Mr.Zentor's lynch long before it happens. However, he never talks about why Zentor must be Town. I don't see it in any of his posts so if they are there show me. It's literally "I dont think a Townie would do this" which isn't a real defense. If he REALLY thinks Zentor is innocent why would he not destroy any of the posts against him? He didn't. This is why I said he comes off as Scum knowing Zentor is innocent ahead of time. He looks like he's defending Zentor but he really isn't. The second bolded doesn't make him Town. "Looking for Scum" is subjective as even Scum can look for Scum. I don't think you are looking at the big picture here. Once again, look at the chain of events the way they went down. Once you showed up with a post on VE, BL shows up with a 19 minutes later with a post calling out a Scum team of VE, Forumite and phagga. His next post after that is calling out Sbrubbles as Scum. He even tries to throw me in there and says me and Sbrubbles must be talking in QT. That's 5 players in not even a quarter of a day that he calls out before Zentor is even flipped and you want to believe he was actually Scum hunting. Seriously this is very simple: If he truly believed Zentor was Town and he is also Town then why would he focus his efforts on calling out 5 other players instead of saving Zentor? He had ample time. He also should know that calling 5 players out isn't going to lead to all of them voting for whoever he thinks is Scum. This was a feigned attempt to look like he was defending a player and attempting to find Scum when he did neither. I feel like his town Zentor read was a gut read, and, frankly, Zentor himself wasn't resisting the lynch, so it was hard to defend him. I would argue that Bluelightz's intentions were simply to not let the discussion die out. Just because there's a good candidade is in place, it doesn't mean we should cease talking. I don't agree with his reads nor how he pushes them, but I don't think he's scum. He's being erratic, but, unlike Zentor, he's being much more accusative. The last thing I think of when I look at Ace's play is erratic. Precisely the opposite in fact. I meant Bluelightz.
Shit. Well, there was me completely misreading your post above there. Apologies
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On April 28 2012 00:12 Bluelightz wrote:
brubbles, could you man up and make a case on your most scummiest target?
Next: Does Ace's play match if you read it as a scum perspective?
I could, but my reads aren't that strong at this point. I'd rather not make a half-baked case and wait until daypost.
The only this I found strange in Ace's play was not wanting to talk about other lynch candidades, specifically this post:
+ Show Spoiler +On April 25 2012 23:06 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On April 25 2012 23:01 Bluelightz wrote:
IF ZENTOR WASNT LYNCHED TODAY, WHO WOULD YOU LYNCH AND WHY?
That's the question I'd like everyone (that has only voiced suspicion on Zentor today) to answer.
Irrelevant. I'm not answering this because it does nothing to further the game as its just throwing more names out there. Right now what is important is Mr.Zentor and your defense against him. Putting out more scum reads does nothing.
But it makes sense if he suspects you, since he is pressuring you to talk. Otherwise, I've agreed with his play and most his reads so far.
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You can look back through my filter and see who I suspect though. I haven't changed my mind on that.
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EPT
