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Newbie Mini Mafia VIII - Page 7
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
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Xatalos
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Xatalos
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Right now it looks like 2 more votes are needed to HiroPro. With my current theory, funcmode, yomi and vonKlaust are town. So 2 out of the 3 of you need to vote for HiroPro... (one hour left) | ||
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Xatalos
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- I flip Mafia: no connections (nobody has been defending me really) - I flip town: stronger suspicions of HiroPro&Dittert&imallinson - HiroPro flips Mafia: Dittert is almost certainly Mafia, imallinson too probably - HiroPro flips town: uhh... well... whole theory crushed? | ||
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On April 17 2012 07:35 funcmode wrote: I just want to say as an aside, late last night when I was writing my first proper post trawling through the thread trying to give my opinions some substance, I questioned how anyone could ever find this game even slightly entertaining, it seemed like an epic reading session with minor bouts of arguing here and there. I don't think my opinion could have changed more in the last few hours, this is super intense! :D Welcome to the club | ||
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Xatalos
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On April 17 2012 07:07 yomi wrote: It is really down to intuition at this point. Everyone thinks they are super logical and have great cases etc but even the BEST cases of the whole thread are still by an "academic" standpoint really weak. So in my experience playing the sc2 mod mafia are almost ALWAYS quiet. xat talks a lot. hiro is quiet ##Unvote ##vote: Hiropro bye gg gl I hope when I come back we are winning Haha, actually I was also introduced to Mafia through SC2. I recommend trying that mod to everyone, although it's very fast-paced and the players are usually pretty dumb/lurkers. | ||
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Xatalos
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On April 17 2012 07:38 vonKlaust wrote: @Xatalos What do you think about what I wrote earlier on Imallinson and the connection between Dittert and HiroPro? Hmm. It could be just imallinson putting some distance between himself and Dittert? I don't think it's weird to FOS your fellow Mafia. Although I can't say for sure that imallinson is Mafia, it might be funcmode or even someone completely different. | ||
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Xatalos
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On April 17 2012 07:57 funcmode wrote: Well, I've stated twice now that I suspect imallinson quite highly and he's had a couple of chances to address my suspicions but said nothing. Maybe it's because he doesn't think my opinion's are worth much so it's better for him to just ignore them than risk putting himself in the spotlight, though I guess there's potentially town-mentality in that approach too. Can you explain your reasoning for suspecting me beyond my (up until recently and beyond my control) lurking and the fact that I thought Dittert might be townie after all (though I still maintained high suspicion and many others shared the same opinion at one point or another)? Well, you don't really scream Mafia to me... It's just that I have a town read on most players at this point, but not on you yet. I know it's mostly not your fault (entering so late). | ||
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On April 17 2012 08:13 vonKlaust wrote: Haha, I really like the dramatic style in Hiro's last post. If this was a murder mystery movie it would be a super exciting one. I have actually been thinking about reading closer into Acros filter. I have had a feeling that I've been following him a tad too blindly. We'll see what happens. Now I really need to sleep. Nighty night fellow townies! <3 Fuck you scum bastards. LOL. I guess you could ask for the right to edit that, it's a bit... against the rules...? Sigh. I'm all out of ideas right now. Maybe the night shot will help a bit, but then it's already almost 50% share of us being Mafia. Maybe the Detective will make a lucky hit... Finding just ONE Mafia would make it so much easier to figure this all out. I guess yomi is Mafia after all? Although I can't really blame him for suspecting HiroPro - I and Acrofales did the same. Maybe I can think of something to contribute yet later. Good night! | ||
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Xatalos
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On April 17 2012 09:54 Dittert wrote: Two times I come home from work and two times I see an idiotic bandwagon that results in the town lynching another townie. I might as well start writing up my post for D3 so you all can ignore it again... Sigh. Here you go again... It wasn't idiotic, it looked like the best Mafia read in my eyes. And had he been Mafia, his flip would have also heavily implicated you and imallinson. Of course since he wasn't (in hindsight, which you seem to love), this doesn't reveal too much about player relations. All I can think of is that yomi is more suspicious, I am more suspicious, Acrofales is more suspicious. imallinson is less suspicious, Dittert is less suspicious. I guess HiroPro was just being genuinely AFK and arrived to the thread at convenient timings for himself. OR he was lurking and trying to hide his role (which I don't like at all, since he could get easily Vigi shot at night for example). However, one thing occurred to me: is there a real reason for myself, yomi or Acrofales to push for HiroPro if we'd be Mafia and Dittert town? In that case, Dittert was already on the road to being lynched, but we noticed a possible connection between HiroPro and Dittert and decided to lynch HiroPro instead. Me & yomi as a Mafia team doesn't really make sense either, we have been opposed whole game even while the discussion focus has been elsewhere. In addition, nobody really stepped in to defend either of us, which makes me think this could have been a heated/vocal town & town argument. Mafia & town is still somewhat possible, though. I'll read through Acrofales's filter a bit later to determine if there is sense in HiroPro's accusations. I'll also have to read vonKlaust's filter. I think he's town at the moment, but he has kind of avoided attention so far and followed the town "consensus" quite eagerly. Funcmode can't be read very effectively yet, but his first analysis post was... A bit lacking, and possibly just meant for continued flying under the radar. I should also read the filters of KharadBanar and Dittert again while at it. | ||
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If I can use the fact that I know I'm town as a part of my analysis (like you did), that means I don't really believe you are Mafia. Why risk your credibility with pushing the vote to HiroPro (whom you would know to be town) instead of just letting me get lynched and go after HiroPro next. I can't see any kind of a Mafia motivation for your actions on Day 2 (unless we would be both Mafia, and I know that to be false). Thus, it means HiroPro's last will was completely pointless and I'm going to ignore it for now. Also, it means my town flip would make you like 0,1% chance of Mafia in the general discussion. Dittert... I agree he would be the "safest" Vigi shot, in case there is a Vigi who previously saved his shot. Okay chance of being Mafia (although less likely with HiroPro's town flip) and the smallest loss with a town flip. I'll also make a big analysis post later under the assumption that Acrofales is town (most pro-town play + the reasons I mentioned earlier in this post). I'm quite certain Acrofales will be shot now that the Doctor is dead, but it might also be KharadBanar or even me (although not as likely). Definitely not Dittert (if he is town, Mafia would love to keep him alive the most of all). So I, Acrofales and KharadBanar should give our best reads before deadline in case we get shot next. I don't have any solid top lynch read after my perfect-feeling theory got crushed, but maybe I can notice the signs of Mafia better after this: it's not necessarily defending each other that much, but quietly spreading suspicion and staying out of suspicion yourself. I'll try looking at possible connections too, though (maybe not directly defending, but not arguing directly with each other and reluctance to vote/bandwagon each other). | ||
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On April 18 2012 01:11 imallinson wrote: My proposal for the scum team: Scum #1: Xatalos I have been very suspicious of Xatalos since fairly on Day 2. He has managed to confuse everyone throughout the entire game by posting way too much. I was behind lynching him Day 2 but he and Acrofales convinced me (and a lot of other people) to switch to Hiro. I think I let Acrofales townness play too much of a role in my decisions. He is still looking like the scummiest person here and I propose we lynch him tomorrow. Scum #2: Acrofales Given that I have a strong feeling that Xatalos is scum, I start to wonder why Acrofales went after Hiro. Either he is town and honestly thought Hiro was scum or he is scum and stepped in to save Xatalos (an OMGUS by proxy almost). I will admit Acrofales looks the most town at the moment and seems like a very good town player who made a mistake. However it is possible he is also good scum who has managed to make himself look town and sway the vote to his liking (I realise this is WIFOM but it is relevant to my next point). So why would Acrofales go and lose some of his position? The only reason to do that would be to save a teammate. It's risky but getting the mislynch means they are very close to victory. Obviously this argument depends a lot on Xatalos being scum so I don't think Acrofales is someone good to lynch Day 3. If Xatalos does flip scum though he will be my #1 target the next day. Scum #3 Scum 3 I am a lot less sure of so I will go through all the possibilities. Dittert: This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales and Xatalos are pushing him to get vig shot tonight. I find this interesting in itself because if we do lynch scum tomorrow, having someone town get vig shot would be very beneficial for scum because it would still leave us having to get a correct lynch. yomi: This seems exceptionally unlikely at this point. There is no reason for scum to lynch on a fellow scum Day 1 when there are alternatives. vonKlaust: This probably makes the most sense to me. Apart from Xatalos making a bad case against him Day 1, which was never going anywhere, they have left vonKlaust alone, not implicating him in any way. I'm starting to find him very suspicious because he is flying well under everyone's radars. I'd say he is a good candidate for mafia #3 Funcmode: It's hard to get a read on you because you haven't posted a lot (I know some of this isn't your fault but you didn't post much after you joined either). However I don't see anything that makes you look particularly scummy at the moment. Willz: This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales was the person who started getting the vote going on Willz Kharad: I still think you are probably town (you have moved to my #1 town spot now) but I am much more wary of that now due to me being sure Acrofales was town. So my finished scum list, with shiny probabilities too (33% is a neutral read): #1: Xatalos (90%) #2: Acrofales (70% if Xatalos is scum) (33% if not) #3: vonKlaust (60% if #1 & #2 are scum) (40% otherwise) This post looks somewhat suspicious. Partly because it reminds me of a post I made in GoT as Mafia, but mostly because it's a really contentless post with WIFOM or non-existent reasoning (and random notes of confidence/doubt to various players). You say your top Mafia read is me, yet your reason for that is "posts way too much". Really? If anything, I'd say "posts too little" would be a Mafia tell. And even if "posts too much" was a good Mafia tell, you say nothing else that would make me your top Mafia read. Really hard bandwagoning and casting suspicion without evidence. Your reason for Acrofales as the second Mafia is pure WIFOM. Your only reason for him being Mafia is that he's been defending me, although nothing else truly points at him being Mafia (or me being a highly likely Mafia for that matter, although I sadly can't say I would have played purely pro-town). Your reason for vonKlaust as the third Mafia is basically... non-existent. He's far from the only player who has during this game been flying under the radar (I'd say you're more guilty of that than vonKlaust). Your reasoning in this post is exceptionally weak, almost malicious. Acrofales and vonKlaust have been generally among the highest town reads for the whole game, yet you're ready to discredit and/or kill them both for very weak reasons. Your point about killing me first to confirm them is yet again weak reasoning, since when I flip town with the lynch, Mafia has already won. | ||
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Xatalos
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On April 17 2012 23:18 willz22912 wrote: Now that town has successfully killed their own doctor (/facepalm) we can probably assume that Hiro probably medic'd Acro N1 because he had the most towncred among us. Maybe I'm going too deep, but don't you mean OUR own doctor, not THEIR own Doctor? On April 17 2012 23:18 willz22912 wrote: If Acro doesn't get shot tonight, there is no other explanation other than that he is Mafia, he has been too visible for a town to be left alive this long. So you're planning to shoot KharadBanar or vonKlaust instead of Acrofales, then get him lynched tomorrow with the support of HiroPro's last will about him - and planting baseless suspicion on him such as this? I feel really bad about this, since I almost single-handedly saved you from lynching (convinced everyone to vote for yomi, which caused the stupid slip from BroodKingEXE). I was convinced by your defense while under lynch pressure, but you haven't done almost anything of worth after that. And now you post something like this, with horrible Mafia slips and obvious Mafia agenda. I'm disappointed in believing you earlier... | ||
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On April 17 2012 23:18 willz22912 wrote: Also notice Xatalos trying to discredit HiroPro's last testament and will, even though he didn't manage to finish his thoughts in time, HiroPro was 100% town, and he may have been on to something. Remember what he said, ignore Xatalos and look at Acro's filter. What's wrong with discrediting HiroPro's last will if it's faulty? Being town doesn't make you right. The only confirmed townie so far I have real faith in is ArcticFox, which is logical considering he was killed by Mafia after all (why would they kill someone without town credibility?). It looks like you're just trying to ride on HiroPro's last will and to get either me or Acrofales lynched for tomorrow. And why would you urge people to ignore me? Even if someone looks suspicious, you shouldn't tell him to shut up, you should tell him to try and convince us of being innocent. | ||
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On April 18 2012 02:44 yomi wrote: I don't think mafia usually make such big slips like the their/our thing. Plus I believe it is grammatically correct once he establishes "town" as the subject he has to stay with third person. "the town has killed our own doctor" makes it sound like the town killed a mafia doctor It is a weird post though I will give you that. Okay, I guess you're right about that. It was just such an overall suspicious post that it might have meant something. | ||
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On April 18 2012 03:12 yomi wrote: To what degree do you think they influenced the switch? Also would like xat to answer this or anyone else Assuming Acrofales and KharadBanar are town, it looks like I was the most desired lynch target for Mafia. Acrofales started on Dittert and everyone bandwagoned him because they didn't want to stand out. Then I made some stupid posts, and a couple of people voted for me. Then Acrofales and KharadBanar voted for HiroPro along with me, and the rest followed (again not wanting to stand out). I'm the only player who was set to be lynched without initial "pro-town" influence. | ||
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