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"I am a good toy" is a scum tell?
Mr.Zentor is one of the lurkers we should burn, yes.
Risk.nuke (what little filter we have from him) is acting dumb. That makes me question my assumptions, yes.
I explicitly tell Cephiro not to claim, I just wonder (as several of us have) whether it'd just be easier / more efficient to push scum directly. I'm not the only one who has been uncomfortable supporting a plan that I know no details of. It's too late for that now that he has gotten all the pushes, though - I'm ready to push him further (if necessary) as soon as we get updated.
I stand behind all those quoted bits, and I think they are all obviously towny.
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Cephiro: do you have any evidence for/against the idea that you are currently in the fire zone?
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On April 05 2012 09:45 MrZentor wrote:
Could we kill Tobon? Isn't it interesting that MrZentor had plenty of time to write a long ramble-y nothing post (as wbg commented) and also enough time to troll through my filter to find me "feeling guilty" 18 freaking minutes into the start of the game, but didn't have enough time to read through the current thread and find all the instructions NOT to continue pushing Cephiro? Who is now frozen in possible danger?
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I apologize for the wasted pulling on Bluelightz. I think it's more important at the moment to save Cephiro, and I don't want anyone else to waste PoPs before I do this:
##Revive
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I am the Deja Vu toy. Once per game I can do _that_, and as long as it is more than 3 hours before the end of day, all toys get reset to their initial positions at the beginning of the day.
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On April 05 2012 09:54 Snarfs wrote:
I was going to ask if toys stay dead if you use that ability, but I guess the answer would be 'no' or we could have killed BL first.
Right. Anyone who was alive at beginning of day comes back to where they started. So we couldn't kill BL first.
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On April 05 2012 09:56 MrZentor wrote:Show nested quote +On April 05 2012 09:50 Tobon wrote:On April 05 2012 09:45 MrZentor wrote:
Could we kill Tobon? Isn't it interesting that MrZentor had plenty of time to write a long ramble-y nothing post (as wbg commented) and also enough time to troll through my filter to find me "feeling guilty" 18 freaking minutes into the start of the game, but didn't have enough time to read through the current thread and find all the instructions NOT to continue pushing Cephiro? Who is now frozen in possible danger? My push on him didn't even count, retard. You can act like scum 18 minutes into the game.
I'd like to nominate MrZentor for lynching, and I'd be happy to use my push on him. I'll wait for discussion, though, and use my push near end of day on whomever town decides.
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I say: Pick 2 scum, 6 pushes each. That doesn't necessarily kill them, but odds are it puts them in the fire and not on the item. All 9 pulls on a third person, which may or may not be enough.
We agree on which scum to push first, make sure we get all 6 done before starting on the second one. We don't want to end up splitting more than that.
Also, from now on, let's not PoP town into fire zones, no matter how good the plan seems. Nullification is very powerful, and we don't know whether it'll run out or not.
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It seems like Syllogism is generally agreed upon as scum. I assume anyone who was having second thoughts will be more convinced by the nullification of Cephiro. He seems like a good first target.
I think we push him 6 times, then agree on a second push target and/or a pull target.
I think Mr.Zentor, cascades, prplhz are scum. I'm willing to go along with wiggles or bluelightz if the rest of town prefers them.
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Ok, I've gone back and done some recalculating of queue positions. If we start with day 1's positions and remove 3 toys on the edges (Palmar at the top, Syllo and Cephiro at the bottom) then we are left with a reasonable random layout of 17 remaining toys. They require 2,3,3,3,3,3,4,4,4,4,4,5,5,5,6,6,6 pushes to get to spot #19, which is the first fire zone today.
That means that 6 pushes (if not counteracted in some way) is almost guaranteed to fry a toy, which means this ought to be easier than I thought. It also means, though, that 6 pushes has a 64% chance (11/17) of letting the target hit the item. Some items aren't useful to scum (like the magnifying glass), but several are.
If we perform:
2 pushes, chance of frying is 6%, item grabbing is 0%
3 pushes, chance of frying is 35%, item grabbing is 0%
4 pushes, chance of frying is 64%, item grabbing is 6%
5 pushes, chance of frying is 82%, item grabbing is 35%
6 pushes, chance of frying is 100%, item grabbing is 64%
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I now think we should 5-push Syllo. 5-push Zentor, 9-pull cascades.
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EBWOP: Please check my logic and numbers, though. :-)
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On April 05 2012 11:49 Mattchew wrote:Show nested quote +On April 05 2012 11:01 Tobon wrote:
It seems like Syllogism is generally agreed upon as scum. I assume anyone who was having second thoughts will be more convinced by the nullification of Cephiro. He seems like a good first target.
I think we push him 6 times, then agree on a second push target and/or a pull target.
I think Mr.Zentor, cascades, prplhz are scum. I'm willing to go along with wiggles or bluelightz if the rest of town prefers them. I am having second thoughts about syllo Also, you saying " I'm willing to go along with wiggles or bluelightz if the rest of town prefers them." looks like you don't want any of the responsibility for their flips. Why are you so wishy washy?
Because I have reasonable doubt about Wiggles and Bluelightz, so I'd prefer to fry the people I have stronger scum reads on. I still think both of them have a good chance of being scum, though, and I'm happy to PoP them and be held responsible for their flips if the majority prefers them.
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We'll want to save 3 pulls until near end of day, in case we push scum into the item and the item turns out to be the teleporter. 3 pulls can move #21 back down to safety.
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On April 05 2012 12:31 cascades wrote:
Why would Tobon's use of ability make him town to those that suddenly cleared him?
Ceph received 6 pushes (2 cancelled) and then was nullified. 6 pushes would absolutely put him in the fire zone. 4 very likely does, and we have to expect that the scum with the Darkness power has some sort of limited visibility (as in the description from DFM1, although perhaps not identical).
We know with near certainty that the nullification is a scum power, as it was used to attempt to kill Palmar day 1, and Palmar later did die and flipped town.
Therefore, Ceph was dead today if I didn't act, and that attempted murder was instigated by scum.
Therefore, both Ceph and I are confirmed town, as much as "confirmed" can possibly be before death and flip.
On April 05 2012 12:31 cascades wrote:
2) Ceph has some magical power that avoids nullification, which is why he wasn't afraid of mafia using nullification and ruining his plan.
And yet, he is mod-confirmed nullified, as demonstrated by the failure of Snarf's and Zentor's pushes. So you are full of crap here.
As confirmed town, I want to see 2 more Syllo pushes (we have 3 already, counting Nemesis's double-strong one), no more and no less (post and give warning before performing your push). Vote for second scum push target. Anyone who uses a push on anyone else until that target is decided is super scummy.
If anyone has comments or corrections on my push percentages, and therefore on what the plan should be, let's hear 'em.
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On April 05 2012 13:49 Snarfs wrote:
I think our other kill should be Bluelightz.
Bluelightz is a bit of a special case, because he got double-pulled by Nemesis after my reset. Therefore he'd need 7 pushes to get in the optimal zone. I'd be fine with attempting to pull him to death, but I don't think he should be the second push target.
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On April 05 2012 13:59 Ace wrote:
An item has been picked up
Bad luck! But at least we know for sure that he's in the fire zone. No more Syllo pushes, please.
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Would we be visibly informed if a teleport took place? Or any of the other item types were activated? (I assume the gun, at least, would be fairly obvious....)
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Okay. So if Syllo got a teleporter he can save himself and there isn't any way for us to know until end of day. Nothing to be done about it. The other 5/6ths of the time he dies at end of day, so we're done with him.
My vote for second push target is Mr.Zentor right now. But we have lots and lots of time. I don't want to see any more pushing at all for at least 12 hours or so. We scum hunt, we make cases, hopefully we get one more. If we're lucky we even pull a third to death.
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On April 05 2012 15:22 cascades wrote:
@Tobon,
How do you know for certain 6 pushes would "absolutely" put Ceph in the fire zone. It only "likely" puts him in the fire zone.
Counterexample: One toy on each safe position. For example, by deduction, syllo probably started on position 18.
#17. He got pushed 4 times, item is on #21.
I noticed you tried to use maths from day 1 positions to try and save your ass later. You know, except for the part about toys being distributed randomly.
Rule 5 is:
5. At the start of each day, every Toy will begin on the middle most queue of the non-lethal queues. However since only 2 toys can be in one spot I will randomly sprinkle you around the remaining queues to start off.
It isn't random, it's clustered in the middle. Interestingly, I think rule 5 is actually misstated. If you check day 1, we were centered around #12 which is the middle of the entire queue. Notice how 9 toys are above and 9 below, and 2 directly on. That's what happened in DFM1, as well, centered around the middle of the queue. If rule 5 was entirely accurate, we should've been centered around the non-lethal portion, so we ought to have had our centroid at #10 rather than #12.
My assumption is that we remain centered around #12, 2 toys on, and 7 or 8 above and below. Because of the pushing past already full slots mechanism, the important point for determining number of pushes to reach fire is really how many gaps there are, rather than absolute position. Simulate it and see for yourself.
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EPT
