EPTSurprisingly Normal Mini Mafia IX - Page 4
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Nova_Terra
Switzerland1190 Posts
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Nova_Terra
Switzerland1190 Posts
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Nova_Terra
Switzerland1190 Posts
I thought that looking back on the game that the pressure i made then was more just suspicious early play from me and OMGUS. | ||
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Nova_Terra
Switzerland1190 Posts
On March 26 2012 10:55 Mementoss wrote: Alright lets respond to this defense. First lets start off by underlining everything Nova_Terra said about IRL, and just not read it. Why? IRL stuff has nothing to do with the game, because it can be lied about and no one would know the difference. It is not acceptable as a defense in any form. You shouldn't be scared to post as a vanilla townie. The only way scum is found is through posting your ideas. Re-read your posts from a different perspective to see how it sounds. No excuse to not be posting analysis. Stick to your guns if you think your right, correct yourself if you think you are wrong and explain why the change of thought. No apologizing needed. While you maintain your opinion on leadership, I maintain my opinion that it is bullshit. Not only is it not a good scum argument, it could scare BlueyD and other newer players away from posting, because they don't want this "leadershit" stuff to come back and haunt them. And why BlueyD? I would consider myself in that role more than him. I put out a case that lead to a townie lynch, and was the first to suggest a vigshot on another townie. Would I rathered one or both of them to flip scum? Of course. Am I pissed at myself about it? Not really. It did its job at getting rid of 2 confusing shitty players. Confirmed a townie that was leaning scum in a couple peoples eyes. And took a lot of time that woulda been wasted pushing/pressure sc2system and Artanis. Now we can continue with the game. It gained time and added information, 2 very important resources. About people not agreeing with your case and putting time into it. This game is not being able to be right and finding scum. Its about being able to convince people to agree with your opinions. No matter how much your right about finding scum, if you cant convince the rest of the town, it will not matter. Don't let this discourage you, keep getting better. About people saying its a free kill against a mafia? No it isn't. You realize how hard it would be for Artanis to survive to a point where it actually would be this situation. Hell we mighta lynched him day 2. At least it wasn't wasted in a death, and helped the town and gave information. Which is helpful at anytime. Then to end your defense you post something scummy. Ugh. This list is not helpful to me. If your posting with purpose and concisely. You should be able to know someones read on everyone just by reading their filter. The list basically says who you think is scum and half a sentence explanation. Would it not make more sense to just post a post based on the explanation? This doesn't pressure the players, it doesn't generate discussion and is easy way for mafia to "contribute" while he can just put a townie label on his mafia friends and scum on the popular choices. Im not retracting my vote on you at the moment. Let the discussion continue. I want to see some opinions. We have a relatively good chance of killing a scum today, and it would be huge to do so. Also i was spending a ton of time on my seviro case and just relaxed after that. Okay, advice taken. Why do you think that it isnt scummy to talk as if you are giving directions and then hanging back after that? after he made those posts, he didnt really do much to back up his position at all, and that made it suspicious for me. I noted BlueyD for that because he didnt really back up his position with anything meaningfull, where as you did and seemed very pro town. Yeah, i need help learning how to make my cases better. something is apparently going terribly wrong, somewhere. However, i definitely think my case vs Seviro has merit and brings up some very good points. I dont really think sc2systems death gave much information at all. correct me if i am wrong. yes, okay, maybe it isnt a free kill, but i think there are much better ways to use that shot later, if he could survive until then. A brief overview of my reads is scummy? i thought you guys were getting on my case for not posting much thoughts/analysis, and i thought this was a good way to do this. I think that a reads post can generate good discussion as it helps people see where people are coming from and it can show inconsistencies between different peoples reads. And if i was mafia it wouldnt make sense to me label my mafia friends as townie, because if one of them gets lynched (or if i did) who wouldit reflect badly on? Me/them. Also, if this is scummy to you, i want to note that seviro does pretty much the same thing (with a little bit more content) in one of his next posts. | ||
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Nova_Terra
Switzerland1190 Posts
a very precarious position o.o | ||
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Nova_Terra
Switzerland1190 Posts
Mementoss, a question for you, you said in an earlier post that you are more inclined to lynch seviro to get info on michael, correct? Then what are your thoughts now and have they changed from then? | ||
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Nova_Terra
Switzerland1190 Posts
in early game, he played aggressively to start out which i liked. however, since then, the quality of play has gone down substantially. i just took a foray into his filter. I definitely think he goes a bit overboard on his ultimatum (which he didnt follow?) and the artanis slip thing. i can see the point of both, but he went a bit too off. He had some wishy-washyness to his vote patterns, which can be explained a bit by avoiding no lynch, but it became apparent to me that ALL 3 of the people he switched between were/are town (as i think artanis is certain at this point). he jumped happily on every little mistake that has arisen throughout the game (refered to in some guide as cherry picking town mistakes i think). After last game, i actually gave up on my "discrediting tell" philosophy, where if you call some analysis/case bad, it is often a scum move because cases which have a bad reaction to them are not thought of and taken as serious as one without any opinions on it so far. upon reading his filter, what i classified as aggressiveness in playstyle went right into discrediting and being just plain rude. He frequently has been calling points terrible and weak, even refusing to respond to a so called "weak case" made by seviro i believe. entirely wrong attitude. it also seems likes hes going heavy into gossemerr without much behind it. not so sure why. I think gossemerr is leaning town, and in general his play has been helpful. anyway, if seviro wasnt more suspicious at this point in time, i would be putting down michaelthe for this lynch (unless something else big came up). its likely that my vote tomorrow will be on michaelthe bar some other case developing. Please be a replacement for virtu if nothng else. A modkill would really kill us i should think. | ||
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Nova_Terra
Switzerland1190 Posts
So, Gosse starts off the game very aggressively, which, similar to michael, i like early. his activity dropped off a bit after his first couple posts (where a good bit of aggressive voting goes on, may be WIFOM but that just doesnt seem like much of a scum behavior to me) which bothered me initially, but as time went on gosse posted relatively regurally each time bringinf things to the table. one of the first 2 RoF votes as well as bringing up sc2system etc. and because of these i am less inclined to think scum compared to a late voter. He actually has one of the smaller/smallest filters in the game, but each post is deliberate and he does post analysis that speaks to his advantage. of course, he is currently on the wrong side of the lynch today, but even so, i think he is leaning towards townie 65-70%. | ||
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Nova_Terra
Switzerland1190 Posts
On March 27 2012 05:15 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Wait what? He currently has zero votes and with 7 hours to go I highly doubt you could get enough votes on him still. This lynch is pretty much between you and seviro right now, we need to lynch a mafia. today. or we'll be wasting a day. The fact that you want to lynch Michaelthe instead is suspicious to me. You should know that with 7 hours to go the chance of someone going from 0 to 5 votes is fairly unlikely. Nono, i think you missed the last part of my post, seviro is more susp at this time, just letting you guys know where i stand for both if i live longer or if i die. | ||
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Nova_Terra
Switzerland1190 Posts
how much of a joke would this be if we were both town, we could be the very definition of screwed. still like 80% sure hes scum though. | ||
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Nova_Terra
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On March 27 2012 06:29 michaelthe wrote: I am changing my vote to Nova. He was already on my short list of potential suspects. I think the initial case against his meta shift was okay, but pretty much confirmed by his reponse and ppl from last game, in addition to analysis of his posts this game and weak defense. I would also hope we get 6 votes on him rather than 5. Why? Mafia benefit from a no lynch, as the same targets would remain with no new info. A mafia could quick switch from one target to make this happen, maybe even Nova voting for himself. After seeing Seviro vpte himself, the other option is that both of the two targets tonight are red. Seviro and Nova could be planning to swap votes last second in order to score the no lynch. They could both argue this is better for them, since they both suggest self preservation as the motive. (Although this may be weaker since I am posting this). Nova has been posting some random analysis in the past few hours. This could be a last ditch effort to prove useful, or he could also be doing this to try and get me hit tomorrow in the day lynch if Seviro comes up green and is killed tonight. If we killed seviro, and he flipped green, we would have two suspects, Nova and Me. Nova would obviously go for me. Again, I think we need 6 votes, if not 7, depending on which scinario we have (and who the third mafia is). ##Vote: Nova_Terra No, no, no, no nonono im not falling for this, you're trying to make mementoss not suspect you if seviro is green and of course if sev was green its me and you and of course i would try to get you killed. but i would already if not seviro... and why did he have to self vote | ||
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Nova_Terra
Switzerland1190 Posts
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Nova_Terra
Switzerland1190 Posts
This is ridiculous. He should have done something other than self vote...his best case would have been to post vs michaelthe and vote him. I am completely in agreement with seviro's so called "will". Michaelthe first thing, and then its quite probable that BlueyD is mafia. He made an early vote on seviro, and then sat back and didnt do very much, except for late into the voting period where he notes that he is unsure how good seviro's self vote was for the town, and that he was skeptical of michaelthe (which was a common thought at the time. he isnt getting very involved with important decisions yet, and therefore after michael he is my first suspicion. | ||
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Nova_Terra
Switzerland1190 Posts
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Nova_Terra
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Nova_Terra
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Nova_Terra
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The last mafia which this analysis will not go over is Michaelthe, who should be lynched asap as hes like 95% mafia, at least in my book. So, to make a brief addition to my previous analysis of BlueyD here goes. On March 25 2012 07:54 BlueyD wrote: Really, I've got an authoritative and these posts prove it? That's new to me. I would think someone trying to make a case that I've led anything here would pick the posts where I try to make people vote for a sc2system lynch based on reasoning that you may agree with or not. Not these 3 posts... All right, let me BlueyD-to-English translate these 3 for you... 1. Hi! I've never played mafia but I understand the game! Also we need a first post to get people talking! 2. Uh, guys, we've been talking about lynching lurkers day 1, but what if it turns out there's no lurkers to lynch? 3. Let's not act like we're starting anew and everyone's back to zero, guys, sc2system has still done crazy stuff we shouldn't forget. If saying "we" a bunch of times is all it takes to be a leader now... This is in response to my previous case against him where i said that his posts took an authoritative edge which it didnt deserve, and posted a couple examples, which i said. When i got this back, it was slightly scummy to me. why? well, he took a very defensive edge, and defends himself by saying that i didnt understand him (blueyd to english part) my post: On March 25 2012 07:42 Nova_Terra wrote: Mementoss, what do you mean the posts i quoted didnt show much of taking leadership? for instance, "I'd like to see everyone at least post to confirm activity. Whoever doesn't start posting is already suspicious at worst, and useless at best. We don't want any mafia hiding among the lurkers. I'll personally support lynching an inactive unless something pretty big happens. " "This means we have to start thinking about who to lynch if there's no convenient lurker." " Of course we'll modify our opinions based on night 1 and day 2, but for the moment I still think my case against sc2system remains reasonably strong, and if there were a 2nd vote right now I'm sure he would get lynched on the spot." I may be misreading the second one wrong, but even so, the fact that he has been allowed to maintain an authoritative posture without pressure isnt good. The bolded parts are ones that i consider to be using diction that is promoting your way of thought and decision making. However, BlueyD isnt taking charge. He says things in this manner and then sits on it for a while until he decides to post another opinion or response. he is easily taking some credit for things already said. Compare this to Mementoss, who is taking a leaders point of view but is actually supplementing it with lots and lots of posts and analysis. BlueyD Is not being a leader! BlueyD hasnt really posted much on big issues and situations, on the seviro/me vote, he had an early vote on seviro which he then just left there without further conversation for almost the whole voting time, and then on his further post just adds more to the anti seviro part, and the last on after that throws more suspicion onto seviro, and just adds in michaelthe being odd by making that move, yet doesnt do anything about it. Overall, BlueyD gives off the air of a leader without the posts and analysis to support it, and just isnt helpful and transparent enough when he does make his points. I would say that his play is slightly similar to mementosses play last game, where mementoss posted trying to seem helpful and confidant but didnt post much content and didnt do much on major topics. i would say he is extremely likely scum. 75-80%. Now, as i believe i posted why i think gossemerr is inno, the only two people left who i feel could be the third and final mafia are either virtu or ninja4ever. so, to decide which one of them is probably mafia in my mind, i am going to compare their accomplishments as of yet in this game. Virtu early game: virtu starts off by posting a couple 1-2 liners of fluff and then goes into standard agreement play where people start agreeing about day1 lurker lynches etc, and then he starts noting playstyles from last game, mine in particular. I can see how this could be useful, but as of yet he hadnt really posted anything helpful. he does randomly afk for 22 hours, which isnt good, but he does post a nice large analysis post on RoF/ System/ kinda ninja. does he use other peoples points? yes. does he effectively illustrate reasons why they are suspicious anyway? yes. still rather null on him. he switches around a few votes trying to get system lynched, but shifts back immediately to ensure majority stays. he seems like he is trying to be helpful. he provokes some discussion on gossemerr before having to stop due to a serious RL issue (and i really hope everything is okay). overall? He tries to be helpful, makes an analysis made from points that had been stated already, but provokes discussion. Virtu: 40% chance of being mafia Ninja4ever. : Parties, gets drunk, misses a little bit of early game as result. not the best way to start off. then he posts some wifom vs lurkers and then a "case" on RoF where he pretty much says that we might want to think about a no-lynch day 1. what? we really dont get information from a no lynch. also, what a weird case. then blames it on everything had been said already? well then what is the point of a big post like this to agree and vote? then he posts like 7 times in 30 minutes to seem really active. most of which he shares his counter to artanis' logic and posts a couple 1 liners etc. to be fair, he hadnt done terribly early and posted his thoughts every so often. his next post posts thoughts on artanis' claim by saying hes pretty much 100% town. He is the first person to join onto mementoss' lynch nova train, in which he kisses up to memen to gain credit by saying that the case is great and all and that his case is perfect even if hes scummy. then he kinda soft defends michaelthe in the same post, saying that tyhe tell on michael was not very telling at all, etc. then he proceeds to go afk yet again, this time for an entire day. not cool,even if he had a reason. lastly he changes his vote to seviro with explanation. Ninja4ever.: 60% scum. One thing that is totally WIFOM that i just want to throw out is that Ninja really seemed like he wanted to vote me down for sure in the beginning of day 2. I came to the possibility that 1. mafia are splitting up votes which just makes sense and 2. he wanted to help the nova bandwagon along. why? quite possibly to get rid of the BlueyD case remnants and any suspicion on him. so, i think we should go for these three in order of suspiciousness, as we cannot lynch a townie.depending on defenses of course, the percentages might change. michaelthe is a totally safe day 3 lynch for sure. | ||
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Nova_Terra
Switzerland1190 Posts
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Nova_Terra
Switzerland1190 Posts
 should i tell you my thought on it? | ||
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