EPTNewbie Mini Mafia II - Page 5
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On January 12 2012 10:36 Probulous wrote: It wasn't a good idea because Blurry actually was a medic. Mafia screwed us over from the start and I overthought things. I agree with Cats on Paperscraps. He gave up and then Gonz comes roaring in with his case on Blurry. The fact that Jitsu was suspicious about Gonz also makes Gonz look bad. Blurry really screwed us by claiming at the most retarded time. The way I see it, if Cats is town then the mafia are Gonz and Paperscraps. I am going to look into Gonz' s filter and do the same thing he did to Blurry. See who has been talking to and why. Who had he avoided and why did he tunnel him so early. It is not like other people's play was much better. Sounds reasonable. I need to sleep now though, I'll provide my thoughts when I'm back. | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
Probu accusing Gonzaw with a huge post and vice versa. (Even though Gonzaw is also pointing at Paperscraps.) This certainly isn't making my analysis any easier... but whatever happens during the night should tell quite a lot. | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On January 13 2012 09:15 Probulous wrote: @Gonz, I don't think BK is mafia, simple as that. I don't have time to write up a full analysis. Why waste time on someone who I am pretty sure is town? Here is my issue people. I don't believe Cats is scum and neither is BK. I am not scum either. That means two scum in either Gonzaw, Paperscraps or Cephiro. How do I choose between Gonz and Cephiro? Gonz has been aggressive and forthright. He has pointed out issues with people's play however the only case he really pushed was Blurry's. Cephiro started badly but nailed Sheth. Since then he has been active and provided some pretty good cases. His finding of Blurry's breadcrumbs being one example. Gonz attitude is disruptive to town and has been since he went after Tunk. He reaction to Jitsu's comments was of useless. Of course you are going to be upset but as I pointed out that doesn't help town. Yet he continues to be be disruptive. His case presented today is alright. Gonz if you think I am scum come out and say it, posting a case like that makes me look bad but allows you to back out. The fact is at this point in time you have to make assumptions on who is town because otherwise scum win. We can't have everybody suspicious of everybody, that is fertile ground for a miss-lynch. Yes re-read people's filters but take a stand on who you think is scum or town. Ceph, where you at? On January 13 2012 09:20 Probulous wrote: Ceph, work backwards. Who do you think is town? A crucial point is Cats, do you think a Cats, Paperscraps team is likely? Then once you have that, it comes down to making a decision on who you think is the scummiest of the remainder. I still think you could be scum. You didn't exactly nail anyone to the wall yesterday and haven't presented your thoughts yet. The only thing really going in my favour is that I have been very open with you guys. I pushed Sheth's lynch and have been very open with my reads. I was the first to really go after anyone and I have changed my reads when new info comes to light. I'll make a short reply for now: My strongest townread at the moment is bkrow. That leaves Probu/Gonzaw/Paper/Cats as for the people to pick the 2 scum out of. I am fairly sure that 1 scum is in the pair of Cats / Paper, and the other is either Probu or Gonzaw. What happens during the night will tell a lot, at the moment I am suspecting that either Probu or Gonzaw is going to get killed tonight, with me or bkrow being the next in line after that. One point that I find interesting is that Cats and Probu have had a lot of discussion between them, whereas Paper and Gonzaw have been playing much more individually. Is it a tell of something? Maybe. It could be or it could not be. On the other hand, two interesting possibilities would be Cats + Paper or Probu + Gonzaw. Since these are the pairs that have been blaming each other lately, it could be a mafia plan of pressuring each other, and once the other is lynched, the other one would likely gain town-cred. | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On January 13 2012 09:20 Probulous wrote: You didn't exactly nail anyone to the wall yesterday and haven't presented your thoughts yet. EBWOP: This is true, but I have my reasons for not doing that. And in all honesty, yesterday was really confusing. You can't expect me to nail someone to the wall every day. I did pressure you and Cats though, for a reason. The way you pushed for Blurry's lynch after Gonzaw's post didn't exactly go that well did it? Unless it's what you wanted... | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On January 13 2012 09:40 Probulous wrote: "What happens during the night will tell a lot, at the moment I am suspecting that either Probu or Gonzaw is going to get killed tonight, with me or bkrow being the next in line after that." Why? See I don't understand this. If we are scummy as hell then surely it makes sense for us to be kept alive? That way one of us can be up for the lynch tomorrow. I would be more worried about yourself or BK (probably BK most of all). Think of it from a mafia point of view, confusion is what leads to a miss-lynch. What shot puts town in the biggest state of chaos? Well one where we gain no information, hence BK stay indoors. You have a point there, but have you thought of the possibility that mafia could also shoot a person to frame someone as well? Consider a situation like this: The 2 remaining scum would actually be in bkrow/Cats/Paperscraps. They see two townies (You and Gonzaw) fighting against each other, and they decide to kill the one to make the other look worse. This would be an effective way of working towards a townie lynch on D4, which would win the game for the scum. On January 13 2012 09:47 Probulous wrote: Yeah I did bad but at least I took a stance. If I get lynched for that, so be it. As you say I had my reasons. I was confused just like everyone else but I went with what made sense to me. I was wrong but that ok, I'm allowed to be wrong. Being wrong means I stood up for what I felt was the right thing to do, unlike others who just sheep. You did really well in the short time we had. I stupidly dismissed your breadcrumb evidence and that is why you are on my town list. I said I was playing badly yesterday and it was clearly true. Blurry did us no favours by claiming when he did but I made the situation worse. It's alright though, we will lynch scum today and then finish them off tomorrow. You are right that Blurry didn't play the medic claim very well. If you are town, I certainly hope you survive the night. In my opinion you've provided more useful content than Gonzaw. Also... I just realized that we three are the only ones posting. Where is everyone else? | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On January 13 2012 09:56 CatsnHats wrote: I don't really know what to say right now... I just waiting for the night post. I have a lot to write, I'm just not posting it right now for timing reasons. I will say I think Gonzaw and Paperscraps are mafia (in case I get killed in a little bit). I'm more confident in Gonzaw than Paperscraps. Nice timing, just as I was wondering where everyone else is.... What makes you more confident in believing Gonzaw is mafia than Paperscraps? (I have a valid reason to ask this from you) | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
What I don't like is that you seem to be blindly trusting Cats. If he is scum, he has been playing pretty damn brilliantly, not being lynched even after all the suspicions on him multiple times. If he is town, then I can agree that he has definitely improved. We'll see what D4 brings us... | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On January 13 2012 10:13 Probulous wrote: Ceph, compare my change of heart with you to Cats. I made a habit on constantly re-evaluating, it screwed me over with the Blurry thing but it certainly helped with Cats. Comparing Cats, Paperscraps, Blurry and Hippo and they look very similar. Obviously there is a scum in there somewhere but Cats did enough to redeem himself in my eyes. So if he scum, then well played. The only thing why I'm wondering is that you are so sure on your read on Cats even without investigating him that you are leaving him out of the list of possible scum. I know I'm town, so if you are right, that would leave Paperscraps & Gonzaw. Which brings up a few interesting points.. I can see that being possible. However I'm not letting anyone off the hook tomorrow if I survive. (Except bkrow if you die tonight) On January 13 2012 10:20 Probulous wrote: @ Ceph, what were your reasons? You mean for not nailing anyone against the wall yesterday? Quite simple. I was planning on pressuring Cats even further before the lynch, since I was (and I am still thinking), that he is getting off the hook way too easily, when he hasn't even defended himself against my original case. He even admit he can't. On January 08 2012 11:23 CatsnHats wrote: His analysis was the reason I made the martyr post. There was no real way for me to defend my play up to the point, and seeing it written up that way I knew I was distracting from catching scum. I just can't stop thinking that Cats is not scum. He approved of my play earlier, and was talking about how I am so pro-town. But once he realized that doesn't get points with me, he moved on to you. And I think that is the only reason he is still alive. For managing to convince you. Unfortunately all the drama with Blurry's poorly timed roleclaim messed up that totally. | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On January 13 2012 10:31 Probulous wrote: Thanks guys! Good luck! Well played. If we win this game for town, you have certainly played a huge role in it. Thanks! | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On January 13 2012 10:42 CatsnHats wrote: EBWOP: I don't really think you are scum, Cephiro. You have to be included because you weren't confirmed by Prob, but you were the reason he checked Sheth, so you're town in my eyes. Lynch Gonzaw, then Paperscraps and we win! But you weren't confirmed by Prob either any more than me. (I consider confirmed by Prob only the people that he checked) I'm still not sold on that you would be a townie. Could you provide YOUR cases on Gonzaw and Paperscraps, and include that why do you think the other is a bigger threat? I will be leaving in a few minutes myself, but when I come back, I'm going to post a lot. A LOT. (And it's not going to be useless fluff.) | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
 No wait.... I'm still in the game! First case coming up soon. Should have all posted in < 4 hours. | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
CatsnHats On January 04 2012 12:34 CatsnHats wrote: Thanks CookieMaker for the link. And you're right Sheth, if I am leaning toward no lynch that would be a red flag for scum. But wouldn't emphatically being in favor of a lynch be a red flag for scum too since the odds are in favor of townie being accidentally chosen? Oh God this is gonna be so meta. Lé blah blah blah with the scumbuddy. Let's see who you have pushed for this game. Me. (Town), Blurry (Medic), Gretorp/Paperscraps (???, I am personally leaning on Town), Xeris (Town), Cookie (Town) And who have you protected? Sheth (Mafia) Hmmm.... Speaks for itself doesn't it? On January 05 2012 01:25 CatsnHats wrote: As for my flip-flopping of position, I hope you all can excuse it as my one noobie mistake. I want to clarify that this is my first game ever of mafia in any medium (forum or IRL), not just on TL. And you won't hear anymore noobie excuses from me after this. Yeah... right. You deserve the award for "Most newbie cards played in one game by scum" On January 05 2012 01:44 CatsnHats wrote: + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 01:13 Gretorp wrote: Tuneg, It doesnt make sense to vote me. If you have watched any NASL or seen me play mafia, you know i'm genius level but inexperienced with mafia. ALL times i've been in tl mafia, i've been a townie so my ability play townie is better than mafia. If you take my genius brain and then apply the situations, the EV for me in general is positive to the point where you dont want to vote me. But you probably know this, hence you want to kick me off because youre a mafia. SO I VOTE YOU, AND YOUR COUNTRY. #VOTE TUNEG Lurking around at the beginning, writing a paragraph of text that amounts to nothing, and then OMGUS-ing the person that prods you... not a good look Gretorp. Pretty scummy if you ask me. His first suspicion of scum. On January 05 2012 01:52 CatsnHats wrote: As for Tunkeg's aggression, right now I'm leaning towards overaggressive townie prodding for reads as opposed to a mafia running smokescreen for himself by accusing others. That being said, 3 accusations on 3 different targets in 3 subsequent posts is a little too much. If he keeps it up at that pace I'll be much more suspicious. Isn't that what you are doing pretty much the whole game... except you're not the one starting the accusations, until lategame. On January 05 2012 04:17 CatsnHats wrote: I said this earlier in regard to Gretorp's first post and I still stand by it. He backs off in his second post but adds nothing, just promising analysis later, which I look forward to seeing because right now I'm suspicious . @Sheth You would have a better read on Gretorp though since you have played with him before and invited him to this game. What do you think about his first posts? Translated: "Scumbuddy, what do you think about my suspicions? You know him irl, you know that he is scum right?" On January 05 2012 08:19 CatsnHats wrote: God you all type so fast. By the time I compose a post 5 more have popped up, including posts by AH and CM who were starting to worry me with their inactivity. The last of the lurkers have not posted. The day started about 22 hours ago and Blurry has said nothing. That certainly doesn't bode well for him. You want accusations, here are my slight scum reads. RE: Xeris Inactive early and his only posted content centers on not lynching after much discussion has already taken place amongst the town about why that is a bad idea. That would seem to be a play for a mafia freekill on N1. RE: CookieMaker Even with recent read on Ceph, which I agree with. I cannot let you off the hook yet for shady opening play. The poem, Odin/Thor references, fluff posts, "jabbing and dodging" who you accused of jabbing and dodging, etc. All of this leans towards scum I think. RE: Gretorp He is the scummiest player so far. From the joke in post one to the back down in post two to this new third post, every response is just too cute and offers nothing in the way of analysis or contribution. Two to three sentence posts of no substance seem very suspicious. My vote right now would be for Gretorp, but I'm not going to make it official cause I still want to hear more from the three I listed here and Blurry. I hope this is enough for you Jitsu. As I posted in my N1 case on Cats, blaming 2 lurkers and 1 poorly playing townie is quite easy to do. Especially when you're mafia and want them dead. Notice how he agrees on CookieMaker's pro-town post on me. (One bigger analysis on me, where Cookie read me as very pro-town, spoilered below: + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 07:59 CookieMaker wrote: My turn. This is my first big read. If you disagree with any of it, please raise the issue. Here are my "Strongest" town reads. Each section will have a brief summary and then reads for the player and reads against, with bolded sections of quotes being the evidence I'm presenting. This was originally going to be longer but I'm starving and heading for groceries asap so I just took the best of what I had. For this play the pro-town evidence feels significantly stronger. Cephiro: -This read is on the big assumption that he is not a highly experienced player disguising himself as a rookie. Otherwise: + Show Spoiler + Appeared nervous at the start with the majority of his math, but I'm chalking it up to newbie nerves. He then goes on to be both active and helpful (even though he may not realize it). Many of his posts seem very slightly hesitant, but my guess on that is because he's seen how these games can quickly bandwagon an innocent townie to hell and he's just slightly afraid. My gut feeling on him is by far the strongest, and if I had to pick anyone right now to be pro-town, it's him. Pro-town evidence: + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 10:42 Cephiro wrote: I'll have to say CookieMaker provides a few good points to start with. Even though none of us knows the exact set up, I would have to argue that we as town have a much better starting point. Considering the case that the mafia would have a role blocker, it will most likely be less useful until later game when people are starting to have better reads on each other. If the town has both the medic and detective, it is quite likely that they will be able to do something useful. (Mafia role blocker would have 9 persons to choose from, since he/she would know the 3 mafia.) That leaves a 2/9 = around 22% chance of roleblocking on the first day, since I'm quite sure there will be no roleclaims this early. On the other hand, the medic has a very small chance of blocking the first kill on N1 (1/11 * 8/9 ~ 8% chance), but the detective has a chance of as much as 27% finding scum on N1 if he doesn't die. (Which would be about 24% in total, which is still higher than the chance of mafia roleblocking.) Note: You may notice I'm into maths a lot.... Also, it might even be that the mafia has a roleblocker but the town has no power roles, which renders the mafia roleblocker useless, making the situation even worse for them. Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1. A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information. Also... What a lovely way to start the game... but on the other hand, I doubt even a newbie scum player would slip that early, even though it could be done on purpose to make us think even a newbie wouldn't slip such, but in fact being scum anyway? In this first post the sentence I like is bolded. Straightforward and to the point, and clearly trying to integrate what he read in other games before this started. + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 00:16 Cephiro wrote: Time for a D1 analysis! Obviously I'll leave myself out, but if someone wants to know more about my opinions / ask why I'm in favor of something, please go ahead, discussion is what we need at the moment. Also, my apologies if I'm wrong with someone's gender, I'll make a mean generalization and expect everyone to be a male until noted otherwise. Player List: 1.CookieMaker For now I'm leaning slightly towards town on him, even though he is quite in-favour of the no-lynch possibility. But I think that may be due to the fact that it's his first game, and he may not have read through/followed many mafia games before. So I'm thinking he's rather be safe than sorry, but hopefully he'll realize the amount of information even a possible mislynch will give us, not even mentioning the huge lead we can get if we nail a mafia on D1. His posts could have slightly more actual content, but he's trying so for now he's okay to me. 2.Liquid`Sheth Hasn't posted anything useful aside from welcoming people and pressuring CatsnHats. Sure, pressuring at this point has to be done, but deciding to pick on one person for no real reason at this point and providing no other content? Hopefully he means well and just tries to make sure CatsnHats plays pro-town regardless of being new, I mean, Sheth does have 2 previous games of TL mafia as a base of experience. But for now, I am reading something between neutral or slightly scum. I dare you to prove me your innocence, so I'll be waiting for your morning post. 3.AnxiousHippo Doesn't seem to have any idea of what he should be doing, but I guess it's understandable since it's only his second game. I am hoping to hear more from you, since you haven't posted enough content to make any kind of read on you. Neutral. 5.Tunkeg Good forewarn on not being able to answer at the start of the game. Appareantly was on the winning side in his first game. He seems like an aggressive type of person, wanting to start the accusations and pressure to get some discussion going on. Thinks that D1 lynch is a must, but backs it up with some very good points. Took the first vote playing it relatively safely, voting for a lurker who hasn't posted yet. Clearly wants something to happen, but I am for now unsure if his method will be very successful. Neutral for now, but if you keep the activity up I should be able to get either a slight-town or slight-scum read on you soon. 6.Jitsu Seems to want to actively participate, and most of his posts so far are convincing people to lynch on D1. Hasn't posted any actual content other than that though, so I will still stand on a neutral read. I am hoping to hear more content from you soon, I need to get more reads. 7.Xeris All I can say is, no content, not a good sign. Neutral. 8.Gretorp Same as above, neutral. 9.Gonzaw Answering people's questions, trying to explain some of the basic stuff that should be understood, looks good to me. I like the way he pushed to know more about how I seem to know about the game, so he seems like he isn't taking anything for granted. Also suggesting pressure voting to get things going. I have a slight town-read here. 10.Blurry Seems to be in favour of no-lynching, wanting to stay on the safe side. Hasn't talked about anything but different possibilities if a mafia roleblocker exists. Not useful. (Okay, I'll have to admit that my statistics post at start wasn't necessarily very useful either, but I've been at least trying to post other content as well.) Neutral for now, but if you won't be posting more, I would lean on slightly scum. 11.Probulous Being very active at the start, and the play seems really town-favouring. Constantly asking for opinions and explaining his reasoning. I like his opinion on lynching, definitely wanting to lynch mafia but still keeping in mind the possibility of being careful incase we don't get any reads on D1. Hopefully we will have some scum reads that we can go for so no-lynch won't be necessary. Pressuring the people that should be on according to timezone but haven't posted. I would have to say you are my strongest town-read so far, I want to hear more of your opinions when you're back. 12.CatsnHats Being a new player, it's understandable that he's a bit confused, but you really need to learn that you CAN'T TRUST anyone but yourself. Whatever you think about the situation or someone's reads, say it, don't just agree or disagree randomly. I'm kind of worried of the chance that you are a townie whom the mafia would be able to talk around easily, but I hope you'll prove me wrong. (about the convincing part.) Or you could be mafia that is pretending to be a super-newbie town on his first game... who knows. But you're neutral so far. Start posting your opinions! I'm not going to vote yet myself, but I will join the pressure voting in a few hours if Xeris and Gretorp aren't going to turn up. More of the same. He lays his cards on the table for all to see, and it's doing it for me. My gut tells me that while a mafia player might make the same post to gain trust, they wouldn't attempt to analyze as hard as he has. Rather, they would use it as more of a confusion technique and be even more wishy-washy. When Ceph isn't sure on someone, or has a weak gut feeling, he still says it, rather than trying to present two opinions and fuel a debate. Similarly, when he's sure of himself, he also is very direct in stating his point. Not only that, but he was dead-on when he said my posts thus far didn't have very much useful content. He was right, I had nothing to go on at the time and was still fishing. I have bolded sections in the above quote that reflect what I like about this. Even though his EBWOP was slightly apologetic, it had a very natural feel to me, out of genuine concern rather than fear. Maybe I'm reading too far into this, but the apology might be a gut reaction to himself having to read so much (a realization I also had as a first-time player). + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 07:14 Cephiro wrote: Hello again everyone! Got caught up watching a good movie, but going to catch up on mafia now: I see your point. I consider that you need to be able to trust some people to some extent in this game, and I am trying to find players which I can be fairly sure of to be townies. That does not mean I will analyze them any less though, I'm not taking anyone for granted neither am I setting anything in stone. I think that the first 24-hours of D1 in this game are quite hard to start pointing scum fingers at someone, but I assure you that whenever my scum sensor alerts, I'll let you all know. So I do get your point about finding scum directly, but I don't want to negate trying to find out whom are town. In my opinion, both is better than just the other. About Gretorp, I am certainly not liking his play so far. He has only posted twice, which of one was appareantly a joke, and the other being an explanation of the first message. The fact that he has posted but still hasn't said anything with content feels suspicious to me. What do you others think? Random Lynching is a retarded idea in my opinion, (since someone brought it up, I'll have my say in this as well.) because we still have more than a whole day on us to make reads, and since we don't have a mayor in this game, we can't use it in the way you were theorycrafting either. I still stand by what I said at start, I want us to be able to get enough reads on people to lynch a scum on day 1. Jitsu's post pretty much sums up my opinion. I don't approve Xeris's play at all so far, all he has is two posts talking about the different ways of lynching, he hasn't provided any opinions about anyone, nor asked anyone else about their reads. Not very pro-town in my opinion. If he isn't going to step up soon, I am probably going to pressure vote for either him or Gretorp. My timezone is GMT +2, so it's around 15 minutes past midnight at the time of this post. I will probably stay up for at least 2 more hours. @Jitsu: I'm actually starting to be really suspicious of him at the moment. He had a very active start, even though his content was somewhat fluffy. I've changed my opinion about him since my earlier post, partly due to many people providing good reasoning about his play so far. I am actually wondering a bit as he hasn't said anything since yesterday's start, so I'm interested to hear if he has some actual opinions or reads to give when he comes back. This recent post is another goodie IMO. Again very direct and unafraid of his position and stance on strategy, as well as attempting to offer genuine contribution. I've again bolded what he says that really ring a green bell with me. His consistency shines through. Anti-town evidence: + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 04:41 Cephiro wrote: Okay, I'll admit that my statistical starting post maybe wasn't the best opening post ever, but at least I tried, unlike many others... can't blame me for being excited and trying to contribute! To be honest, I don't understand your claim about me being wishy-washy at the start, when I was clearly trying to push for some points. For example: On the other hand when I read your posts, I see almost nothing useful. You're trying to pressure CatsnHats, and trying to clarify some acronyms and such on D1. You're not posting any of your reads. And now you asked CatsnHats about his opinion on Gretorp when he already posted about it... you're giving surprisingly much attention to him to start the game with in my opinion. I'm pointing my FoS at you. I'll have my eyes on you Sheth. I'm not going to accuse you of being scum yet, but I suggest that you all watch Sheth's posts carefully. You'll have to try harder than that to convince me. Really this is more town-evidence IMO, but some might say that the speed with which he flipped the accusation around makes it suspicious. I tend to think that it's just a bit of an instinctive OMGUS, otherwise he handled the pressure really well and without any trace of guilt. As well, I kinda like his read on Sheth and the way he's now using Sheth's own tactic against him :D -Slightly Bandwagon-ish: He is slightly following the bandwgon on the Xeris train, but I don't blame him at all here because I'm of the same mind. On the whole his contribution has really stuck out to me as useful (or trying to be) rather than "active filler". This is one of the few reads that I'm much more sure of. If there is a medic in this game, my recommendation would be on his protection because I think he will be one of the standards around which the town needs to rally. Gonna grab food, and compile more reads, and tonight I'm gonna hit y'all with some knowledge. Current Opinion: Very Pro-Town On January 05 2012 10:46 CatsnHats wrote: Hey Probulous. I don't know if you saw this before you posted. It was about 2 hours before you posted so it's in the time range you gave for not being able to read it yet. It includes my thoughts on CookieMaker you asked for. As for Xeris and Gretorp. I don't think not contributing at this point is an excuse for them being clean. In regards to make vote, I asked for clarification on the voting process and AnxiousHippo answered. I didn't want to be locked in because there are 23 hours left til the deadline. After I learned that I wouldn't be locked in, I voted for Gretorp to pressure him to add content. I even explained that in the post quoted below. I hope you just hadn't read these yet. Otherwise you just picked posts that supported your case and blatantly left off the one's that exonerated me. Two lines of text. That's... a lot. Spoilered below: + Show Spoiler + RE: CookieMaker Even with recent read on Ceph, which I agree with. I cannot let you off the hook yet for shady opening play. The poem, Odin/Thor references, fluff posts, "jabbing and dodging" who you accused of jabbing and dodging, etc. All of this leans towards scum I think. This screams "Hey strong townie, I am town too, please believe me, I can be your personal little helper". But in reality, behind this is a very devious scum, trying to find protection behind our DT. On January 05 2012 13:10 CatsnHats wrote: @Jitsu You have so much wrong about me I don't know where to start. I waited around 2 hours and 30 posts before I first commented. How is that lurking, especially for it being my first game? Others waited much longer and did not draw your attention. I was the second person to talk about Gretorp, and I was the first to call him out on his response to Tunkeg's prod. And how could I have changed my top 3 scum reads when that was the first time I posted them? Gretorp stayed on the list, Xeris advocated no-lynch, and CM had been very shady (as was explained in the post and echoed by others later). I kept pressing and pressing Gretorp because I stuck to my stance and he hadn't answered yet, but that is explained because he works all day for NASL. I await his response. I appreciate your concern, and like your aggression for me to explain myself. I have a town read for you, and I hope this clarifies things. This WHOLE post is just so... woah. First off: Drawing the attention to others. "I wasn't the last one to post, why are you picking on me!!??!?!" Then a blatant lie: He was the second to call out on Gretorp's response to Tunkeg, right after ME. His reasons for the 3 players: 1) Xeris advocates a no-lynch. (Short, although I'm pretty fine with this) 2) CM had been very shady (Your fantastic 2-liner analysis!) 3) Gretorp you were pressing and pressing on? Placing a vote on a lurker on the first day, and then excusing him with the fact that he works all day IRL isn't that much of a pressure imo. Also, the end is just what the hell. "I have a town read for you, and I hope this clarifies things." Translated: "I am not a threat to you, don't worry about me." On January 05 2012 14:01 CatsnHats wrote: Yeah I know I look scummy. People are holding my first two newb posts against me and it's clouding their judgement on the rest of my play. At this point in the game Cephiro is definitely more scummy than Gretorp, especially in light of Gretorp promising a long post and his being at work all day. If he follows through it would alleviate a lot of my concerns with him. That would leave CookieMaker and Xeris from my original list. They haven't done anything to be removed from it either. Prob's analysis of Cephiro is very well thought out and cited, and your follow-up is logical. But all of this talk back and forth between you too and "what happens if we lynch a green and I thought he was red, what does that make me look like to the town" talk is very circular and frankly unneeded at this point. It's just dead text to me. We should focus on who's the scummiest, not the repercussions of being wrong on your read. Be confident and we'll deal with the effects after the lynch, not before. That being said, despite your circular theoretical talk, at this point I'm confident in your analysis of Cephiro and think he is more of a threat than Gretorp. So ##unvote Gretorp ##vote Cephiro Scumbuddy blames you to make sure that anyone doesn't think you two are both Mafia. After Sheth and Probu make a case on me, that is ALL he needs to change his mind. He's like... case against Cephiro posted -> I'm convinced. I love it how Sheth even asks you "Would you be willing to join in on this little train we're starting?" Too bad your D1 plan to get one of the active townies killed failed, because I'm coming and taking you down now. On January 05 2012 14:04 CatsnHats wrote: EBWOP: I know this makes me look even more bandwaggony to you Jitsu. But I can't worry about your thoughts about me. I just need to help find scum and let my play speak for itself. Well it certainly has spoke for itself. Bandwagoning townies, protecting scummies. Is there anything more that we need to know? On January 05 2012 14:45 CatsnHats wrote: For the record, I guess it is possible that Jitsu, Sheth, and Prob are the three mafia trying to pressure me from the beginning into voting for a target of their choice. I find it highly unlikely, however, that all three of you would be so vocal and hold such a majority of the spotlight, as this would certainly be a risky play. So I feel good about the vote switch. I just wanted to get this thought out there. Random fluff filler and throwing out random accusations. "I guess you could be mafia but I don't think you are". Then what the hell is the point in posting that? To try and cause others to suspect them. On January 05 2012 15:13 CatsnHats wrote: I just getting all the possibilities out there, and I said that you all being mafia was low probability, so if anything that would be taking suspicion from you. As I have said before from the beginning, my third (albeit a distant one relative to the others) at the moment is Xeris due to his no-lynch posts, lurking, and non-responses to player questions. He has left very little material to go on, but that is my third for now. For me it's Cephiro>CM>Xeris. I could see Xeris dropping off this list though when he, Gretorp, AH, Blurry, and others post again. And now Gretorp has already dropped off the list, since Probu thinks that he is less of a threat than Xeris. "Fine, I'll just adjust my opinion accordingly." On January 06 2012 08:30 CatsnHats wrote: And to Gretorp: seriously where is your promised long analysis post/contribution? Don't think I've haven't forgotten. We're going to need everyone's contributions if we're going to rid the town of scum, so start POSTING. He does this.... right after I point out that he has totally dropped the subject. /facepalm, could you be any less obvious? On January 06 2012 08:41 CatsnHats wrote: You (Jitsu), Sheth, and Probu weren't on my scum reads, you put those in my mouth. Take those 3 away, and what do you have? Gretorp, Xeris, and Cookie. That's 3! How many mafia are there? THREE. Yep, you just randomly soft-accused them, but never said that you think they are mafia. On the other hand, you forgot to list me in that. On January 06 2012 10:02 CatsnHats wrote: @Ceph Jumping on the CatsnHats bandwagon I see. It seems like you trying to get people to spare you on D2 by shifting attention to me. You quoted me as saying "Even with recent read on Ceph, which I agree with." as evidence that I flip-flopped when I later included him on my scum reads. But you didn't quote the whole post. I said: + Show Spoiler + RE: CookieMaker Even with recent read on Ceph, which I agree with. I cannot let you off the hook yet for shady opening play. The poem, Odin/Thor references, fluff posts, "jabbing and dodging" who you accused of jabbing and dodging, etc. All of this leans towards scum I think. I've never flipped on CM, you just didn't include this to make your case. It seems alot of people have a habit of doing that. And no, you didn't fall off of my list, if you actually read Jitsu's post you aren't mentioned on it, so I didn't include you. Don't worry you're still on it. You're actually at the top of it for D2. That's not OMGUS, it's just that you are top two with CM/Tea and once he's gone you're logically next on the list. My flip from Gretorp to you was to kill the greater of two evils a the moment, since Gretorp's inactivity had left him as a harder read when compared to you. And then I switched my vote from you to Tea because it seemed we were going to be deadlocked, and killing #2 on my list and letting #1 go is much better than letting both #1 and #2 go. Me jumping on the bandwagon? Lol. Admittingly, Probu had a case on you already, but everything I posted was original and my own analysis. Unlike your play where you just jump from target to target to please others. On January 06 2012 10:14 CatsnHats wrote: First thing that pops up: Cookie thought Cephiro was very pro town. This is very interesting since a lot of people had Ceph pegged as scum before we switched to Tea/CM. I'm still reading the filters, just wanted to get this out there first. Oh they did? Why didn't I know of such. I only saw you, Probu and Sheth accusing me constantly. One mislead townie, and two scums. Way to go making me try to look worse than I do. On January 06 2012 11:32 CatsnHats wrote: Ok guys. I don't really want to do this, but I'm going to since it really is the best for the town. I think all of you should vote to lynch me on D2. I've come to realize that I am a terrible player of this game, especially as a townie (with no role I might add!). I should have found the newbie forum or got a better idea of this game before i signed up to play it. My first few posts I made before I realized the psychological and analytical implications of this game handicapped me and I've been playing the defensive ever since. After the bad start I put myself in, my goal was to make it past D1, which I did, so I'm fine with getting lynched if it's agreeable amongst everyone (I'm sure the scum will agree). All I have really done is distract you all from the real the scum with my terrible play, and that's not fair to the town. I also admit, I haven't added much in the way of original analysis because I was afraid that it would put me in even more hot water. The obviously wasn't the right play. Maybe you all can get D2 sped up if the mods allow it so anymore scumhunting time isn't wasted. This probably isn't the correct time to do it since it's N1, but for the record. ##Vote: CatsnHats For the record: in light of CM/Tea turning up green, I think it takes some heat of you Ceph. You (and the rest of the town) should spend your time looking into Xeris and Gretorp (because of questionable/contradictory posting when not lurking) and pressuring AnxiousHippo, a player who has gone unnoticed to others because of all of the accusations going around. He's made filler posts, keeps making excuses for not reading through everything, and throws out a placeholder vote for Xeris and a very bandwagon vote for CookieMaker/Tea. Quoted below: The big breakdown. I finally nailed you against the wall, and you weren't able to defend yourself. What's left for you? THE SUPER-NEWBIE CARD! Martyring and more martyring, maybe they'll believe me. Also as your "last favour" you point out at another townie. (Hippo/bkrow). In an advanced game you would have been killed right away, but in a newbie game you saw your chance to confuse enough to give you some more time. On January 07 2012 12:59 CatsnHats wrote: In regard to my martyr post, I'll admit that I felt pretty defeated when I was writing it, but then I realized that I could use your reactions as fodder for evidence and as a way of generating discussion, so I lurked and waited. I was pretty disappointed for the most part, a lot of "Don't give up for the town's sake" responses that came from the players with really town-y reads already (Prob, Gonzaw, Tunkeg), and this was meant to find scum, not confirm town. But then AnxiousHippo posted thank goodness, something I could make a read on. + Show Spoiler + On January 06 2012 16:31 AnxiousHippo wrote: @CatsNHats get your head back in the game if you're town you should be more focused on killing mafia than convincing everyone you're a dead weight. Just keep trying, your last paragraph was decent, try expanding on that. Thanks for the pep-talk, the thing is though, it's the exact same thing that Probulous wrote, just in less words. Bandwagon post to make yourself look town if you ask me. + Show Spoiler + On January 06 2012 11:40 Probulous wrote: Don't you dare throw in the towel! That is a shitty thing to do. Hell ask for a replacement if this is too hard for you. If you are town, fight for your life. I am pissed at AKCT for his apathy. You at least have been posting. Take a break and come back later with a case on someone. You realise if you throw in the towel and you are green you are severly handicapping the rest of us? You noticed that Hippo hasn't been contributing. Do what Gonz did and make people see your point of view. The argument against you is long and has substantial evidence. There isn't anything you can really do except be useful to town. I hate it when people do this. It is so passive aggressive and weak. Grow a spine and take the heat. If you get lynched, well better luck next time. But this, is aweful. And why would you compliment my last paragraph? Because it points the finger at you. If I didn't include you, would that make it better than "decent"? Or are you just complimenting it because you think I would let you off the hook? And then this: Really? After everyone else has already agreed that he needs to respond and has been pressured, you jump on the bandwagon and offer this filler BS? You're going to have to do better than that. You also say that Xeris doesn't look scummy because we have nothing to go on, but his posts are more questionable than Gretorp, a player you are bandwagon pressuring. Are you just trying to protect Xeris, a scum friend? 9 (excluding me) people left. 3 are mafia. AnxiousHippo, Blurry, Gretorp, and Xeris have all drawn suspicion for either lurking, contradicting themselves, shady behavior, etc. Do I think the whole mafia is in these 4? NO. Do I think at least one, maybe of them is? Yes. In light of recent events, AnxiousHippo has done the most to damn himself in my eyes, but we're kinda stuck on Gretorp and Xeris until they answer or get modkilled. That leaves Blurry, I'll analyze his filter and post later. Who's ProfBA? I thought you all were mistyping Prob but you kept saying it so I'm confused. @Sheth This is the definition of OMGUS from the TL Newbie Thread Cookie linked: "OMGUS: Oh my God! You suck! Voting for someone just because they are voting for you" Is this better guys? I'm really trying here. Lol.... just lol. Your clever comeback, where you were just fishing for people's reactions. And what do you come up with? Nothing. NOTHING at all. Just the worst accusations ever at Hippo. Further trying to divert attention from you. You blame Hippo for the same thing I blamed you for, ironic isn't it? And you're so happy that the townies pep-talk you, but when someone isn't the first one to do it and doesn't devote 5 lines for it, you just accuse him for bandwagoning. What the hell? Last line: "Am I looking more town already, am I safe?" On January 07 2012 17:02 CatsnHats wrote: EBWOP: And AH, whose bandwagon analysis are you working on? Your own? Nice ignoring that Probu just asked him to analyse the ones that were supposedly bandwagon voting on Cookie. On purpose? On January 08 2012 00:44 CatsnHats wrote: EBWOP: I'm going to make it more clear. I was using Prob's post to show that AH's post was very similar to Prob's, and since AH's was much later, it was bandwaggony. I don't want you misunderstand what I say again. So basically, if you're not the first one to have that opinion, you are bandwagoning. Says the king of bandwagons, who would know better? On January 08 2012 11:23 CatsnHats wrote: Cephiro really impressed me with the way he defended himself against your analysis. His statistics post people got angry at him for isn't really that big of a deal for me since it was his first post and it's his first game of forum mafia. Ceph was also the first the post a write-up on all the town, although you picked it apart later. I still think that counts for something. He called out Sheth in his defense post for Sheth's wishy washy play, and later pressured me on my terrible play up to that point. His analysis was the reason I made the martyr post. There was no real way for me to defend my play up to the point, and seeing it written up that way I knew I was distracting from catching scum. His analysis is very good, and I hope he gets back from his sports tournament soon because he's an asset to this town. Cephiro is definitely a town read for me. Sheth endeared himself in my eyes for defending my newb-play in the beginning, and even after my martyr post he still had a town read for me. I'm starting to think that's because he KNOWS I'm town though. Prob's and Jitsu's analysis has definitely cast a black cloud on the nicest guy in esports. He has ghosted on Prob's analysis of Cephiro, basically promising analysis in the morning on someone's that bothered him. Prob posts his Ceph analysis, and then Sheth's like "oh yeah we was mine too." Just seems like he was waiting for someone to post original content so he can ghost it. And the way he has handled the Xeris situation is shady as well. Sheth is our best case so far, but I'm really holding out hope (albeit a faint one) that Xeris, Gretorp, or AH will talk before the lynch. I will at least do this: ##Unvote: CatsnHats I'm not going anywhere unless the town or mafia decides it. Wouldn't you know, I managed to find all the flaws in your play. And what are you doing behind your screen at the moment you wrote this post? "Thanks Ceph, now I know how to make myself look even more town". Now you are suspecting Sheth. Because.... Prob posted an analysis on him. And the king of bandwagons is aboard. On January 08 2012 11:58 CatsnHats wrote: @Prob yeah I do think they are (Blurry too) better scum targets than Sheth. I think we are letting the terrible activity level of half this town make us point the finger at each other. @Sheth you're exactly right. I'm ghosting on Prob's analysis of you. Gonzaw ghosted on it too and has already put a placeholder vote on you. I REALLY don't like that. He says that your words in your defense could have an effect on changing his mind, but that he won't be around to see it. WHAT IS THAT? This is a really important time in this game. We really need a lynch on mafia. That doesn't sit well with me. + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 12:57 Liquid`Sheth wrote: Also, your crazy to not think that there is no relation between who you analyse and find scummy and whether or not you are scum. If the person we follow along with the most picks 3 town in a row, theres a solid chance hes mafia. If the person we follow kills 3 mafia in a row, theres a solid chance hes town. I don't know how you can't agree with that. @Everyone The phrase I bolded is really interesting to me. It seems like the town (including myself) has followed Probulous without much question. He has posted so much many long posts so often that we have written him off as town without thought and reanalysis. Do you think that Probulous is getting by without enough criticism? He's not a D2 lynch target by any means, but do you think that is true? This is NOT FOS, I'm just asking a question. The start is just blablabla with your scumbuddy, talking a bit to avoid suspicions. However, then comes the interesting part. Your scumbuddy provides you a nice line to make you look better, and you go on to soft-pressuring Probulous, but just "genuinely asking a question". Coincidence? No. Planned with Sheth? Yes. On January 08 2012 13:44 CatsnHats wrote: I don't feel comfortable voting for you Sheth. I think Xeris, Gretorp, AnxiousHippo, and Blurry all have had as much scummy behavior as you, just less activity. I think you are getting targeted because you have a higher quantity of posts, making it easier for you to be quoted/analyzed. My target right now would be Blurry or AnxiousHippo, mainly because they are the most likely to respond at this point. Blurry has made 11 posts overall (an amount big enough to be remembered, but not enough to be picked apart like you), 1post yesterday, which is WIFOM filler + Show Spoiler + On January 06 2012 00:53 Blurry wrote: Okay, my last post for the day: Staying on CM/Tea as I am still unsure about Cephiro. Other than that, I'm sorry I couldn't contribute more this first day as I am still new to this and am not sure what to look for in terms of reading players but by going over players posts I am getting a good idea and I'm sure my analysis quality will steadily improve over the course of the game. One thing that strikes me looking back at all this is CM voting for CatsinHats. If CM/Tea is indeed scum then I think this provides evidence towards cats not being scum as I dont think CM would have been that meta especially with the holes in his play he has already shown. This can't be assumed however so I would still be suspicious. and one post today, which was WIFOM filler. + Show Spoiler + On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote: I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things. Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way. My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum. His big analysis post was 1-2 sentences on each player. Not enough content. Thoughts? You blame Blurry for 2 WIFOM filler posts, asking others opinions. + 1 more target, aren't you changing your mind a lot. Who do you think are even scummier than your scumbuddy? The 4 townies of course. Xeris, Gretorp, Blurry & Hippo. HAVE TO BREAK THIS ANALYSIS FOR NOW, IT'S GETTING HUGE. MORE COMING UP AS I FINISH. | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
CatsnHats analysis continues: On January 09 2012 05:33 CatsnHats wrote: @Sheth You aren't my best read on scum, I said the town had the best case against you because Prob had just made his long analysis post. Then you defended yourself, which I was waiting on, and because of it I'm not comfortable voting for you. I'm still convinced than when Xeris and Gretorp are killed one of them will turn red, and Hippo and Blurry have always been more questionable than you in my eyes. Honestly I would vote for myself with Jitsu and you if it meant keeping you alive, because you are obviously much better at making reads and are a bigger asset to the town than I am. Ah, how nice. You would sacrifice yourself for the Mafia Godfather. Best case in your opinion: Whatever Probu makes a long analysis post on. Sheesh >_> Also, the upper bolded I find interesting. You were waiting on Sheth's defense. Of course you knew it was coming, since you had planned it all along with him. This way you could defend Sheth with a good reason, and if worst-case scenario for you would happen, meaning that Sheth would get lynched (as he did), you could just play the newbie card again. "Sheth was so devious and tricked me, guys I'm still town, I'm just really newb." On January 09 2012 07:16 CatsnHats wrote: + Show Spoiler + On January 08 2012 22:40 Blurry wrote: Yes I would, and will. #Vote: Liquid'Sheth As to gonzaw's statement of me simply regurgitating information. For the most part that has been true but I've been going by my gut, which is not something you can post when convincing other people to take your side. I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start but don't have the analysis skills to back it up (I know that will read as scummy but bear with me) and write an informed post as to why. If I don't have the evidence to back up my feelings then there is no point in posting it. Admission of bandwaggoning. You can't claim you were suspicious of him if you didn't post anything. That statement means nothing except "I'm sheeping Prob's content." + Show Spoiler + On January 08 2012 22:41 Blurry wrote: EBWOP: ##Vote: Liquid'Sheth Wrong format. If he flips something like blue or green however I think we should seriously look into Probulous. And what is this?I have a feeling you KNOW Sheth is going to flip green, and you are using this knowledge to throw suspicion on Probulous after that happens. And as I said in my other post you've really said nothing but WIFOM filler. You're playing exactly how I think a lurking mafia would play (making posts every once and a while, not committing in analysis, apologizing for not adding content, bandwagoning, etc). It seems like we are heading for a no-lynch, but I am not voting for Sheth because I think he's town. ##Vote: Blurry The king of bandwagons blames Blurry for bandwagoning. The last post is funny, Cats manages to find a flaw in the sentence which he can use against Blurry. I think you are suspecting that he could be the medic at this point, which is why you are pushing for him. What I find interesting here is your stance that "I am not voting for Sheth because I think he's town."... What happened the day after? KEEEL BLURREZ!!!!!1111 On January 09 2012 07:19 CatsnHats wrote: Ceph you better come through on your promise. And that statement I bolded is BS. That's sheeping and you know it. And why arent't you going to vote for anyone other than me or Sheth, cause you know we're the green targets? This was hilarious when I first time read it. Blaming me for sheeping? Lmfao. You are claiming me to sheep because Probu beat me to it. Well, I beat Probu to it on D1, how about that? You're trying to make me look bad again here on purpose. You two green targets? More like the most blood-red I've seen in ages. On January 09 2012 09:58 CatsnHats wrote: FUCK. I didn't want to do it, but Sheth told me too. ##Unvote: Blurry ##Vote: Liquid`Sheth ... LOL. Of course he did. He wanted you to gain a bit more of town-cred. Why would you else vote for him if you were so sure he is town, even when you claimed that you wouldn't vote for Sheth on D2 no matter what? On January 09 2012 10:49 CatsnHats wrote: You guys think I'm mafia, especially since I didn't vote for Sheth until the end, but I'm not. That's why I said "Well fuck I'm dead." Since I'm town and we lynched mafia, I said "Nice work Probulous and Cephiro." What isn't there to understand? "I've given up on this game even though I'm a townie, I just can't defend my claims". And the Newbie, King of bandwagons card has gained a special trait: Hopeless! (Has a chance of causing even more confusion among the townspeople). On January 09 2012 12:08 CatsnHats wrote: + Show Spoiler + On January 09 2012 11:49 Jitsu wrote: Mafia - Sheth Cats Blurry Next game.  I agree with you on Blurry (since I voted for him), but I sir am town. Of course you agree. You want rid of the townie, that you are even suspecting to be a medic. On January 09 2012 13:31 CatsnHats wrote: Probulous I agree Xeris>Gretorp in terms of scumminess out of the lurkers. I've stated my suspicion of Blurry a couple of times too, he hasn't been helping himself lately. If I had to pick 3 for the 2 spots remaining it would be Blurry, AH/Bkrow, and Xeris. I'll give Bkrow some time to prove himself though. Also, Gonzaw is null for me right now. The way he placeholder voted Sheth (even if he was mafia) didn't sit well with me. I need to recheck the filter to confirm. "I agree with the strong townie that I'll convince to make me look better in the endgame" Then cleverly planting the seed to cast doubt on Gonzaw.... THE OTHER SCUMBUDDY! Protect one, bus the other? On January 09 2012 13:46 CatsnHats wrote: Alright I rechecked Gonz's filter. Other than the bullshit back and forth between him and Tunkeg (poor tunk  ), he's played very pro-town up to this point. He's really been on Blurry and Xeris, which I obviously like. And sure he ghosted your Sheth read, but I've been much more guilty of that offence so I can't hold it against him. Ah, wasn't the right time to awake suspicions on him yet? Obviously you like that your scumbuddy has also been trying to lynch Blurry, your suspect for the medic. And a lurker, who are basically free points for you. You name one bad thing (just incase to not look too good), about him ghosting his Sheth read, but you quickly nullify that by saying you've been even worse. On January 09 2012 14:46 CatsnHats wrote: Yeah I think Sheth new he could take me down with him I've screwed myself over so bad with my wishy-washy save myself play. Smart play on his part. ..... You do know that it's not allowed to have more than 4 newb cards in your deck? >_> But it's your gameplan, so cheating a bit doesn't matter eh. I haven't even bothered to count how many times you go back on your newbieness as an excuse, even though you said you wouldn't in one of your first posts. On January 10 2012 07:40 CatsnHats wrote: @Jitsu If I had flipped to vote Sheth you all would have just called me out for bandwaggoning again, so I decided to stick to my decision, even though I was in the minority. Obviously I was wrong about Sheth, but I switched from Gretorp to CM/AKCT last time and you called me out for bandwaggoning. Really though that's a situation where I'm fucked either way. If I change my vote, I must be mafia bandwaggoning. If I don't (like I did), I must be mafia defending a scumbuddy. I don't see how you can get a read on me from that. Jitsu is on to you. What to do you do? Plan: Eliminate Jitsu, activated. On January 10 2012 08:19 CatsnHats wrote: This is kinda getting into WIFOM territory, but do you really think Sheth would say this if I was actually his scumbuddy? Of course he would say that, to make you look better when he flips. Some more material you can use in your defense, no-one else brings this up anymore. Well... at least Sheth was honest  On January 10 2012 08:55 CatsnHats wrote: Alright well I just thought I would mention it. Clearly everybody have their minds made up. Nothing I can do can change your opinions of me at this point. I'll keep posting until I'm lynched on D3 though (kinda waiting on the new people to post). That way when I flip green, you can first laugh at how bad of a town I was (don't worry, I've been laughing too  ), and then you can look through my filter for some reads. Yeah right. Keep claiming you've given up on hope already, to cling to your last chances even harder than before. On January 10 2012 10:09 CatsnHats wrote: Is this the proper time to announce it? I wasn't, but I've already said I don't have a role. I'm starting to think the mafia is afraid that we have a medic though. That's why they went for Tunk and Jitsu and not you Prob, for fear of the medic saving you (our "leader" of sorts). Wouldn't you know..... On January 10 2012 13:10 CatsnHats wrote: @Blurry I have to admit that shit was hilarious, you picked one of my favorite "CatsnHats" pictures. But you literally add NOTHING new, and much off that is old material. The rest of the town has been on my case the whole game, why would you post that? It's blatant sheeping. You're just trying to make yourself look good to the town by picking the easiest target. I'm convinced your scum. This will be interpreted as OMGUS but I don't care, I voted for you last time until Sheth asked me to switch (hindsight is 20/20 but I really thought he was town you guys). ##Vote: Blurry Your suspected medic makes a bad case which is just blatant sheeping against you. You got a darn lucky jackpot right here. I can just imagine how happy you have been reading Blurry's case, knowing you can use it against him to get him lynched on D3. On January 10 2012 13:40 CatsnHats wrote: Nope, no hard feelings (except for this quote of yours: "He only voted for Sheth after Sheth told him to and has been all round terrible. His "leaving" post caused confusion and he claims it was a gambit. In general he has been nuisance to town so I would not be sad to see him leave." That kinda hurt .). When I do play again (which will be a while since I have college starting back Wednesday), I will play it SO much because of all that I have learned. That being said, I'm not giving up yet. I'll push for Blurry until I'm lynched, and if I am, hopefully you'll go after him next. Also, I only voted for Sheth after he told me to because I thought he was TOWN and he was only doing it because a mislynch is better than a no-lynch for the town. I don't see how that is hard to understand. When everything else fails, apply to emotions! You might've made it work on Probu, but that's not gonna work on me. On January 10 2012 14:02 CatsnHats wrote: Sometimes I feel like we are. People can say I'm terrible, but I least I've been active. I'm probably the 2nd most prolific poster now. And yeah my gambit was really bad. I was such a newb though. I thought that was an original/novel play, it didn't even occur to me that others have probably tried that before and were hated for it. Oh well, lesson learned. "I'm active and trying to contribute, don't you guys see that I'm town?" Now that Jitsu who was on to you is dead, you move on to phase 2 of your plan.... from newbie to the town-saving contributor! + Show Spoiler + On January 11 2012 05:23 CatsnHats wrote: Probulous you probably weren't expecting this, but I'm about to change up my read. The more I read Blurry's thread, and I've read through it multiple times now, the more I think he is just a lurker newb not sure how to contribute. Even when he sheeped against me so hard recently, he admitted that he was doing it immediately. He was the 2nd person to vote for Sheth (and he had a surprisingly good read on him for posting so little). And the WIFOM posts I called him out on earlier make more sense in light of the fact that he says he has been using his gut alot since he feels his analysis isn't up to par. Your gut is the only way to make a decision about a WIFOM situation. I feel like I can read newb play, being that I was/still am one, and Blurry definitely strikes me as a lurker newb town now. Thats being said, he still needs to post more. All of this reading wasn't in vain, because after perusing through filters I found a different target. Paperscraps: Being a Replacement Doesn't Make You Innocent ![[image loading]](http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/51Pp9Bilr1L._SL500_AA300_.jpg) A replacement for Gretorp, Paperscraps wasn't done any favors by having a terrible predecessor. Gretorp was a shady, shady player, drawing the suspicions of everyone despite having a small number of posts. Tunkeg the night killed townie called out Gretorp for lurking and responded with this: What is this other than OMGUS and an attempt to confuse the town? A very shitty move for a townie to make. After being pressured on this ridiculous post, Gretorp responds: In other words, "LOL jk guys if I promise to make reads will you stop pressuring me?" These are Gretorp's last 3 posts. Post #1 is an attempt to put pressure on someone else. Post #2 is an attempt to make an excuse to relieve the pressure on himself. And Post #3 is an attempt to make a promise to relieve the pressure on himself. And then poof, he was gone. This reads really scummy to me. Enter Paperscraps. Here's his first post. Much better than Gretorp, but that isn't saying much. His reads are pretty interesting though. He picks Xeris, a bigger lurker than Gretorp, and Blurry, a player already under an eye of scrutiny. This is an easy thing to do. And he doesn't give any reasoning for his picks. Sheeping/ghosing, call it what you will. It definitely isn't original though. Next post. Blurry stays scum. Xeris changes to null (probably because he's caught up with everyone's opinion Xeris by now), and I am town. Keep this in mind. He also posts the 3 clearest town reads as his own. Nothing original. When Probulous questions him on his reads, Paper agrees and changes his mind about me, claiming he will re-read my filter. Xeris is also off his radar completely. Most interesting however is the fact that he sticks to his case that Blurry is scummy. Paper claims that: "Blurry doesn't agree to vote up Sheth until you ask him if he will. All his posts previous to that have no read on Sheth or say he he may be slightly town. I guess you are right that it is stupid to jump from Cats to Sheth, but you, one of the best readers in this game, think he is town now. Maybe that is what he wanted to happen. I still think he is scummy." Blurry acutally did post analysis on Sheth. Even though it was scant, it was correct, and he was the only one up to that point other than Prob to question Sheth. Paper, as scum, knows that Blurry is town, so he's neglecting facts to cast a shadow on a suspected player. Paperscraps then busses Jitsu, using his death during N2 as evidence for Jitsu being correct about me being scum. This is sheeping against the most suspected townie. Paperscraps next two posts are further sheeping of Jitsu's analysis of me. There is no reason to quote them, they are one-liners and are easy to find on his small filter. With my new opinion that Blurry is town, I think Paperscraps is scum sheeping against the two questioned townies, me and Blurry. Because of all of this reasoning above: ##Unvote: Blurry ##Vote: Paperscraps I look forward to your response Paperscraps. And at this point I think Xeris/Kronhjort is going to get mod-killed, and if he flips blue/green, I will be PISSED. Here you go on to brainwash Probu even more, trying to ensure him that you are town. You do a surprising move by starting to blame Paperscraps instead of Blurry.... not. You had a clever plan, but not enough. You didn't find enough mistakes in Blurry's play, so you made a case on Paperscraps instead. But Blurry was your suspected medic...... well, no worries, since you know that your scumbuddy Gonzaw is going to make a case against him soon, and then you can jump on the bandwagon once again, riding into the sunset with another stain of innocent blood. On January 11 2012 08:00 CatsnHats wrote: Thanks Prob. And that is a really hard question. I wouldn't be surprised when Xeris/Kronhjort gets mod-killed if he flips red. But that is just wishful thinking because there really isn't any info to go on for him/them. AnxiousHippo's play was suspicious but bkrow has played much much better. That leaves Cephiro, Gonzaw, and Blurry (you and I are town). I'd say the 3rd mafia is between Cephiro, Xeris/Krohnjort, and Gonzaw. Hopefully it's Xeris and we can win this game in one more day!!! "Yess, plan worked, the strong townie I'm going to backstab tonight is going to make me look good." Of course you know the 3rd mafia is between Me, Xeris and Gonzaw, since Gonzaw has been your scumbuddy all along.... On January 11 2012 13:04 CatsnHats wrote: @Cephiro I included Gretorp in my analysis of Paperscraps because they are the same person. I would be remiss to leave out my opinion on Gretorp and just analyze Paperscraps, that would just be throwing away half of the available information we have on him/them. What are the things that you mentioned you did? Have you already analyzed Paperscraps? If so I missed it and apologize for that. Can you requote it to me? Also, you say Prob asked for my case on Blurry and that I didn't write it. But I did, it's at the top of my post on Paperscraps. I came up with the same conclusion that Prob did about Blurry (town for now), but with separate analysis from him. I've been taking Prob for granted up to an extent, but remember I did ask the town if we were following him too blindly. I have an overwhelming gut feeling that Prob is town. With the sheer amount of posting he done (like 8 of the 36 pages), he is either a really good town or the most ballsy scum ever. I think it's the former. Apologies, to try and not wake my suspicions, but to win me on your side also. You almost got me >.> Then praising the Probu, ensuring that he will make you look better as you deviously backstab him next night. Blurry is town for now, because you know Gonzaw is about to bring his case on Blurry. You're just waiting patiently... On January 11 2012 14:44 CatsnHats wrote: I think Paperscraps is the strongest lynch target right now, I've made my case and he is my #1. And I'll keep making it as he continues to post. I would vote for Xeris/Kronhjort but I fully expect him to be mod-killed, so that would be a waste of a vote/lynch. I think Blurry is town (and I've made my case for him being so), but there is enough suspicion surrounding him from others that I would vote for him if there was no other way to get a lynch. That would be a last resort though. Assuming Xeris is modkilled, Paperscraps>>>Blurry in my opinion. Reading town sentiment though, it sounds like it is going to come down between me and Paperscraps. And here you make the slick move to excuse yourself on voting for Blurry soon (in bolded). Very well played indeed, but not well enough. You keep pressing for Paperscraps, since you want him killed on D4 to ensure the win for scum. On January 11 2012 14:55 CatsnHats wrote: And of course lynching the lurker or me would be best for you, because neither of them are YOU. And that doesn't help your case towards being town. Alot of the grunt work analysis done on me was before you entered the game and I picked up my play, you have no claim to it other than bandwagon. And lynching a lurker gets no one town cred. From your response to Paperscraps. He is actually trying to provide his own opinions of you, but you quickly claim it as blatant bandwagoning. When he talks about Xeris's flip, you bring up how lynching a lurker isn't town-cred for him. Well... weren't you the one pushing for lurkers all early game long? On January 12 2012 06:22 CatsnHats wrote: + Show Spoiler + On January 12 2012 06:12 Blurry wrote: The idea that me immediately voting for Sheth was somehow a mafia plan to make me innocent in the town's eyes is rather stupid. I am not a good player by any stretch of the imagination so why would he sacrifice himself to try and help make one of the weakest players in the game look more innocent. It was not clear that he was going to be lynched. May I remind you that the vote for him succeeded by just one vote. If I had been scum I would have either feigned inactivity and not voted, or perhaps voted for Cats who was already under a lot of suspicion at that point. These are very good points Blurry, glad to see you are posting again. What do you think of my case against Paperscraps (my new thoughts on you are included in that post)? Would you be willing to vote for him, or are you dead set towards only voting for me this lynch? "Well hello there soon-to-be-killed Medic!" "What do you think of my case, haven't I improved a lot? Aren't I a clear townie?" At this point you've clearly picked up your play, and you're looking dangerously innocent. Here you are trying to convince Blurry off you, just to ensure his death further. On January 12 2012 08:41 CatsnHats wrote: WHAT THE FUCK. If you are telling the truth you just fucked us over. You are going to die tonight now if that's true. And your scumbuddy Gonzaw lands the big fish. And it wen't even better than expected, he claimed medic! This is the moment where you jump in and "Omg really no damn why did you do that?", when in reality you are laughing as your devious plan worked even better than expected. On January 12 2012 09:15 CatsnHats wrote: You role claimed after you were pressured by one person? OMG why?! Cephiro makes alot of good points towards you actually being a medic, and I'm about 85% sure you are. Well that leaves me and Paperscraps up for vote in 45 minutes. I would like to think I have done enough to redeem myself to live another day (I don't think I will be targeted in the night because of all of this new info). I think we should vote Paperscraps. Do you agree Blurry? bkrow? Probulous? Cephiro? Gonzaw? You are that sure of him being a medic? But you end up voting for him.... And isn't it surprising that you won't be killed in the night, since you're the player that kills everyone at night... On January 12 2012 09:22 CatsnHats wrote: Oops sorry Probulous I meant nightkill instead of lynch. That TOTALLY changes the meaning of my post. Thanks for catching it. Here you did an intentional mistake, just to make you look more newbie than you actually are. Damn you are tricky. On January 12 2012 09:26 CatsnHats wrote: I'm prepared for those consequences. Paperscraps is my scum read, I posted my case, and I will stand by it. His responses to my claims haven't done much to lift my suspicion of him, either. You will stand by it... for 15 more minutes. Then you can blame him for the whole D4 as you get the medic killed. On January 12 2012 09:53 CatsnHats wrote: bkrow/Cephiro we HAVE to have a lynch today. We can deal with the consequences after the lynch. Vote Blurry! Hurry! Why would you say this? Because lynching the medic gets your scum team in a very good position. No townie would say the bolded. Whew, almost finished.... | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
Final part of CatsnHats analysis On January 12 2012 09:55 CatsnHats wrote: WHAT THE FUCK. 5 minutes left. Make a decision. We don't have time. Here Probu brings up the logical town choice, rather be safe than sorry, since the medic is important. What do you do? Pressure him to lynch him of course. And unfortunately you succeed. On January 12 2012 09:57 CatsnHats wrote: Cephiro we NEED your vote! Indeed you did. And what a horrible mistake I made. I let you trick me too on top of outsmarting Probu. But that will not happen again. On January 12 2012 10:06 CatsnHats wrote: Paperscraps. Did anyone notice he went MIA during that last hour of shitstorm. And now that your plan was successful, you move on to finish your plan and secure the win by pushing for Paperscraps lynch on D4. On January 12 2012 10:11 CatsnHats wrote: GOD DAMN IT. After the night we are now in MYLO territory. You bring it up after the medic has been killed... LOL. A townie would have brought up that before, not dealt with this "consequence" later. On January 12 2012 10:25 CatsnHats wrote: Cephiro, I think I have the whole reasoning behind it figured out. But if he's going to explain before daybreak I'll wait for him to tell his reasons. I know this will make me look suspicious. On another note, I'm still convinced Paperscraps is mafia, and I think he should be our target for day 3. Did anyone else find it suspicious that he disappeared during that? And at this point you are on to the fact that Probu is the DT. "Nice, now I can kill the DT tomorrow, hopefully I've played wishy-washy enough that he hasn't checked me." And damn right, lucky you he didn't. And you've brainwashed him to the point where doesn't even consider you as scum. So devious. SO DEVIOUS. And you keep pushing for Paperscraps lynch here... On January 13 2012 09:56 CatsnHats wrote: I don't really know what to say right now... I just waiting for the night post. I have a lot to write, I'm just not posting it right now for timing reasons. I will say I think Gonzaw and Paperscraps are mafia (in case I get killed in a little bit). I'm more confident in Gonzaw than Paperscraps. Now you are afraid you might die during the night..? LOL. Also, now you're starting to bus on your scumbuddy, to make you (or him) look better if one of you gets lynched. On January 13 2012 10:02 CatsnHats wrote: Gonzaw never posts anything of substance. Just look at his defense post above. If you even FOS him a little bit, he goes into WTF fuck fuck fuck are you kidding me? mode. All of his post are just little incredulous statements that mean nothing followed by a question mark. And here it goes. And so the two scumbuddies start pointing fingers at each other, to make the other one gain town-cred in case things go wrong. On January 13 2012 10:09 CatsnHats wrote: Thanks Prob, you've been our MVP up until now. I knew you were DT because you said you HAD to lynch Sheth, even if you're arguments were irrational. I thought you had checked my N2 though, because you changed your opinion of me and I didn't think that was possible unless you had looked at me. Making up a story here aren't you. You know very well if he had checked you, you'd be hanging in a rope by now. I can just imagine the relief when you saw that he didn't have a check on you. On January 13 2012 10:24 CatsnHats wrote: Basically you're saying, "You didn't play detective the way I wanted you too, because I'm mafia and it made it hard for me to be sure that you were a blue." Another planned slip to make you look better? On January 13 2012 10:38 CatsnHats wrote: With me and bkrow as town, here are the possible scum combos: Gonzaw, Paperscraps Cephiro, Gonzaw Cehiro, Paperscraps I put these in order of probability in my eyes. And who is the most likely scum combo? Your scumbuddy (Gogogo more town cred if he dies), and your today's victim Paper. On January 13 2012 10:42 CatsnHats wrote: EBWOP: I don't really think you are scum, Cephiro. You have to be included because you weren't confirmed by Prob, but you were the reason he checked Sheth, so you're town in my eyes. Lynch Gonzaw, then Paperscraps and we win! "Trust in me, Probu did too, we can still win this!" Nice try, but no! I wonder whether you are planning on night-killing me or lynching me tomorrow. On January 13 2012 11:11 CatsnHats wrote: Cephiro: This was my case on Paperscraps. I've included the subsequent interactions between Paper and I as well. Sorry it's a little hard to read since there is so much, but if you open up all the nested quotes and really read it I think you'll see that this is a really good case against Paperscraps. + Show Spoiler + On January 11 2012 05:23 CatsnHats wrote: Probulous you probably weren't expecting this, but I'm about to change up my read. The more I read Blurry's thread, and I've read through it multiple times now, the more I think he is just a lurker newb not sure how to contribute. Even when he sheeped against me so hard recently, he admitted that he was doing it immediately. He was the 2nd person to vote for Sheth (and he had a surprisingly good read on him for posting so little). And the WIFOM posts I called him out on earlier make more sense in light of the fact that he says he has been using his gut alot since he feels his analysis isn't up to par. Your gut is the only way to make a decision about a WIFOM situation. I feel like I can read newb play, being that I was/still am one, and Blurry definitely strikes me as a lurker newb town now. Thats being said, he still needs to post more. All of this reading wasn't in vain, because after perusing through filters I found a different target. Paperscraps: Being a Replacement Doesn't Make You Innocent A replacement for Gretorp, Paperscraps wasn't done any favors by having a terrible predecessor. Gretorp was a shady, shady player, drawing the suspicions of everyone despite having a small number of posts. Tunkeg the night killed townie called out Gretorp for lurking and responded with this: What is this other than OMGUS and an attempt to confuse the town? A very shitty move for a townie to make. After being pressured on this ridiculous post, Gretorp responds: In other words, "LOL jk guys if I promise to make reads will you stop pressuring me?" These are Gretorp's last 3 posts. Post #1 is an attempt to put pressure on someone else. Post #2 is an attempt to make an excuse to relieve the pressure on himself. And Post #3 is an attempt to make a promise to relieve the pressure on himself. And then poof, he was gone. This reads really scummy to me. Enter Paperscraps. Here's his first post. Much better than Gretorp, but that isn't saying much. His reads are pretty interesting though. He picks Xeris, a bigger lurker than Gretorp, and Blurry, a player already under an eye of scrutiny. This is an easy thing to do. And he doesn't give any reasoning for his picks. Sheeping/ghosing, call it what you will. It definitely isn't original though. Next post. Blurry stays scum. Xeris changes to null (probably because he's caught up with everyone's opinion Xeris by now), and I am town. Keep this in mind. He also posts the 3 clearest town reads as his own. Nothing original. When Probulous questions him on his reads, Paper agrees and changes his mind about me, claiming he will re-read my filter. Xeris is also off his radar completely. Most interesting however is the fact that he sticks to his case that Blurry is scummy. Paper claims that: "Blurry doesn't agree to vote up Sheth until you ask him if he will. All his posts previous to that have no read on Sheth or say he he may be slightly town. I guess you are right that it is stupid to jump from Cats to Sheth, but you, one of the best readers in this game, think he is town now. Maybe that is what he wanted to happen. I still think he is scummy." Blurry acutally did post analysis on Sheth. Even though it was scant, it was correct, and he was the only one up to that point other than Prob to question Sheth. Paper, as scum, knows that Blurry is town, so he's neglecting facts to cast a shadow on a suspected player. Paperscraps then busses Jitsu, using his death during N2 as evidence for Jitsu being correct about me being scum. This is sheeping against the most suspected townie. Paperscraps next two posts are further sheeping of Jitsu's analysis of me. There is no reason to quote them, they are one-liners and are easy to find on his small filter. With my new opinion that Blurry is town, I think Paperscraps is scum sheeping against the two questioned townies, me and Blurry. Because of all of this reasoning above: ##Unvote: Blurry ##Vote: Paperscraps I look forward to your response Paperscraps. And at this point I think Xeris/Kronhjort is going to get mod-killed, and if he flips blue/green, I will be PISSED. On January 11 2012 13:26 CatsnHats wrote: Overall this is a poor rebuttal Paperscraps. My answers are bolded and underlined. On January 11 2012 14:55 CatsnHats wrote: Really? I know apologizing can be a scum-tell but I actually missed/misunderstood what he was referring too, apologized for it, and he cleared it up. You're reaching. And of course lynching the lurker or me would be best for you, because neither of them are YOU. And that doesn't help your case towards being town. Alot of the grunt work analysis done on me was before you entered the game and I picked up my play, you have no claim to it other than bandwagon. And lynching a lurker gets no one town cred. On January 12 2012 06:18 CatsnHats wrote: What out of this post am I dodging, exactly? There isn't really a question posed to me. For #1, it's good that you posted and are active, but you were just echoing the past (very vocalized) concerns of other players, so it doesn't really do anything to help you. I love #2. "As for your analysis of Blurry, I actually agree with it." Haha I thought you were going to shoot holes in it, but oh well. And in #3, you admit to skipping over the evidence that debunks your argument (that Blurry thought Sheth was town), that just doesn't sit well with me. As for #4, the WIFOM hypothetical is you saying this in the post where you vote for me (section bolded): This whole scenario is impossible to prove and is pretty outlandish if you ask me. WIFOM like this does nothing to help the town. It is a good way for scum to deflect pressure though. He hasn't really posted much since, trying to fly under the radar if you ask me. Him sheeping against Blurry makes him look pretty bad after the fact too. I don't have an official write up on Gonzaw yet, but I think we should lynch Paperscraps first because he is the safer of the two options in my eyes. That way we can extend the game another day and you/bkrow can make more reads on Gonzaw and me to make up your minds between the two of us. Him sheeping against Blurry? And what did you do.... I think you are avoiding to make a case on Gonzaw on purpose. To make him look just a little better. You think we should lynch Paperscraps first, because that would win you the game. Not gonna work. + Show Spoiler + On January 14 2012 02:13 CatsnHats wrote: Paperscraps, you seem to think that it is important what order I think we should lynch you and Gonzaw. I did flip-flop from Gonzaw to you 1st, but it doesn't really matter either way. If you want to lynch your scumbuddy Gonzaw first, then by all means I'll be down to do it. You're both scum in my eyes. Your argument makes me shake my head because you came into the game late and I can almost guarantee that you only read my filter, not the posts from other people that surround mine. You say this: "Cats has been posting a bunch of filler posts about Probu being awesome and sucking up to him pretty much. Cats claims he "knew" that Prob was DT and that we "HAD" to lynch Sheth, but this is after the fact and doesn't mean anything. Cats is using Probu to dissuade others from thinking he is scum." It's not sucking up because I said it when we all thought Probulous was going to die (himself included). This was like a goodbye post. For the record, Probulous is/was awesome. If we manage to win this, it will be because of him. That being said, I don't even think you read my post correctly. I didn't say "we HAD to lynch Sheth." I said Probulous HAD to lynch Sheth, even if he had to use irrational arguments to convince people. Why did I say that? Because I was quoting what Probulous said right here: Hmmmm... why would someone push so hard to get a person lynched, even using irrational arguments? Because they are the DT. Come on Paperscraps, read the thread, not just filters. As for my change of opinion on Gonzaw, why is that not allowed? Did you check the time stamps on those posts? Slight-town: 7th Null: 9th Very-pro town: 9th (I had just checked his filter, and said he "played very pro town up to that point." That doesn't mean I am certain he is town. You even agreed he had because of the way he bussed Sheth. This is a town read in my eyes, but I'll leave it as very pro town for the sake of argument.) Suspicious: 11th Scum: 13th That is 2 days in between most of those posts. 2 days is ALOT of posts and opportunities to make reads, especially for someone like Gonzaw who hasn't made a glaring mistake to completely change town sentiment on him. The reason I kept changing was his relentless aggression and cursing in his defense of himself. It kept throwing me off. I think he is mafia now though, and if we lynch him and he flips red, it shouldn't matter that I thought he was town in the early game, when reads are so difficult to make. You are also getting on to me for my posting before the lynch and nightkill posts. You say they are filler. They may look like that now, but the hour before each of those events was a flurry of posting. If you think I'm scum because I posted a lot during the most stressful period of the game to date, then so be it. "For the record, Probulous is/was awesome. If we manage to win this, it will be because of him." I laughed my ass off when I re-read your filter and found this. Indeed, if you manage to win that, it's certainly thanks to the fact that you managed to trick him into believing you are town. In the early-game you are obviously trying to avoid scum-reads on your buddy Gonzaw, so that he wouldn't get DT checked or lynched. But as the game goes later, you build up your bussing situation that has it's grand finale today. Clever play indeed. On January 14 2012 05:19 CatsnHats wrote: + Show Spoiler + On January 13 2012 10:48 Cephiro wrote: But you weren't confirmed by Prob either any more than me. (I consider confirmed by Prob only the people that he checked) I'm still not sold on that you would be a townie. Could you provide YOUR cases on Gonzaw and Paperscraps, and include that why do you think the other is a bigger threat? I will be leaving in a few minutes myself, but when I come back, I'm going to post a lot. A LOT. (And it's not going to be useless fluff.) I know I haven't responded to your analysis against me in the early game. But remember that I said I couldn't defend myself against it. Up until the Sheth lynch (I really thought he was town, it was a gut feeling, kinda like Prob's gut feeling on Blurry), I flip-flopped, I bandwagoned, I did everything in my power to not be killed (see martyr post lol). If I was mafia, don't you think Sheth (and possibly the mafia's coach if they're using one) would've taught me how to play better in the beginning? Sheth was the first person to subtly pressure me and I almost fell apart right there. I haven't used a coach and realized after the Sheth lynch (perhaps to late) that analysis and active contribution were the only way I was going to prove myself. You've admitted in multiple posts that I have stepped my game up, enough to where you even placed a vote on Paperscraps (until the Blurry incident). + Show Spoiler + On January 12 2012 09:40 Cephiro wrote: ##Vote Paperscraps If he flips green and Cats is alive in the morning.... I'll vote for him and won't change my vote no matter what. I do this only because you've picked up your play and you finally stand by your case. I hope I am doing right in trusting you. Ceph, I'm asking you to put your trust in me again. Think of me as Cats, the active contributor and analyzer of late, not Cats, the newb wishy-washy trash player of the early game. + Show Spoiler + On January 10 2012 10:23 Probulous wrote: WIFOM alert, which is more likely? Scum knew I was iffy about Cats and that Jitsu would be the one pushing his case, so they shot him. Or Jitsu had correctly noticed in Gonz's filter and scum quickly shot him to stop suspicion of Gonz? Or We have no fucking clue and this is a waste of time? I bolded the case that I think is correct. Probulous and Jitsu were suspicious of Gonzaw. Now both of them are not here, + Show Spoiler + On January 13 2012 10:48 Cephiro wrote: I'm still not sold on that you would be a townie. Could you provide YOUR cases on Gonzaw and Paperscraps, and include that why do you think the other is a bigger threat? I provided the Paperscraps case, but I haven't done a full blown Gonzaw case yet. I don't know if a full blown case is needed on him though. We have Prob and Jitsu suspecting him, and now they're both gone. That counts for something. I still post something about Gonz later though. As for who is more dangerous, I kinda think Paperscraps is. I don't think Gonzaw is capable of defending himself well other than cursing and rhetorical questioning, Paperscraps is beginning to be more active (although I don't think his arguments are that great). I could see Paperscraps convincing you and bkrow that he is just a newbie though, and that scares me. That being said, I'm fine with voting off either, because I think both are mafia. What do think Ceph? Playing the newbie card again at the start of the message. Then you are just saying you can't defend yourself, and try to skip it. A townie would never say they can't defend themselves. Then you're trying the emotion-way again, asking me to trust in you. I did that too much on D3, but it's over now. You then bolded the "correct" case, which is bussing your scumbuddy. In reality, BOTH of those cases are correct. And you keep saying that a case on Gonzaw isn't needed because both townies suspecting him are dead. You keep saying how he is obviously scum, and then keep trying to pressure Paperscraps as the more dangerous choice. I think you want Paperscraps dead, because a townie lynch would win you the game. I'm not gonna fall for that, it's you or Gonzaw today. ##Vote CatsnHats For the record: CatsnHats is my strongest scumread, second to none other than Gonzaw himself. But I really need a break now, will post my Gonzaw-case a bit later. (Will do it way before the deadline, don't worry.) | ||
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Just noticed that while skimming through >.> That does NOT make him any less scum though. Gonzaw is the other scum, I stand by that. | ||
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On January 14 2012 19:57 Paperscraps wrote: I've also been pondering some things. @CatsnHats: Question: Does it strike you as odd that Cephiro voted you up instead of gonzaw? Cephiro and gonzaw are still a possibility for mafia, even though it is slim. @Cephiro: I think you are town. However you can't be 100% certain that I am town and I can't be 100% certain you are either. Just making sure we cover all possibilities. I am very interested in your take on gonzaw. Question: Would you be willing to lynch gonzaw instead of CatsnHats? In the off-chance you are mafia, you are very devious haha. I can't find anything in your filter to suggest you are scum though. I am working on the gonzaw case at the moment, but it will take me a while before I post it. You should expect to see the first part in less than three hours or so though. It's good that you are keeping your mind open, even though I think it's starting to get quite clear that Cats and Gonzaw are the two mafia. Or at least that's my opinion, it makes perfect sense as multiple times proven in my analysis on Cats. I am willing to lynch Gonzaw as well, since at the moment I am very confident on both of my reads. But at the moment my read is stronger on Cats, and I would like to see him hanged for his devious tricks. You are not off the hook either, but after reading your filter multiple times, I just can't find nowhere near as many scum tells as in Gonzaw's and Cats's. Your play looks much more pro-town to me than Cats, but Gonzaw is a damn tricky case indeed. But yeah, in my opinion we lynch Cats, then Gonzaw. Both will do. | ||
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Gonzaw On January 04 2012 12:11 gonzaw wrote: So this is your first forum game ever? Not just first game on TL? You seem to know quite a bit about the game though, may explain why? If there are 3 goons, a goon can fake-claim being RBed. If we go by that "If someone claims RBed, there is a RBer", then it will fuck us up. If there is a Medic, then he will believe there's also a DT (when in fact there isn't), and viceversa, and that can help scum with fake-claiming the other PR First you are trying to paint me as "experienced", when it's my first time playing. A few others called me out for my bad starting posts, but for some reason you are trying to make me look dangerous, but not calling out on that mistake? In the latter part, I think it's because you know that there is a mafia roleblocker (for all I know you could be the mafia rb, it's you or Cats after all). You're trying to set yourself up for fake-claiming in case it's needed. Your only risk would be the counter-claim, but especially since your strong start you must've believed that you can convince everyone that you would be the real power role. On January 04 2012 12:35 gonzaw wrote: EBWOP: Interesting. If you are town, I really hope you are right about you being "good at mindgames". If you are scum I really hope you aren't. A nothing-saying wishy-washy filler, again trying to raise suspicions at me. On January 05 2012 04:26 gonzaw wrote: + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 01:44 CatsnHats wrote: Lurking around at the beginning, writing a paragraph of text that amounts to nothing, and then OMGUS-ing the person that prods you... not a good look Gretorp. Pretty scummy if you ask me. Is it scummy enough for you to vote him? Also, I'd like to see your thoughts on Gretorp. Setting yourself up to start pressuring Gretorp more once he shows up, also asking Cats to join the bandwagon if you decide to start one. Unfortunately that didn't quite work out since he was so inactive, you had to find another target. On January 05 2012 04:43 gonzaw wrote: Also, what do you think about Gretorp? + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 04:17 CatsnHats wrote: I said this earlier in regard to Gretorp's first post and I still stand by it. He backs off in his second post but adds nothing, just promising analysis later, which I look forward to seeing because right now I'm suspicious . @Sheth You would have a better read on Gretorp though since you have played with him before and invited him to this game. What do you think about his first posts? Again, you said you are suspicious of him and you think he's scummy. But you didn't vote for him yet. Is there a reason for it? Are you just "waiting" to see what he does or something? Keeping up Gretorp's name just incase anyone is about to forget, then soft-pressuring Cats about some more pre-planned "newbie" mistakes. + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 04:54 gonzaw wrote: EBWOP: Nobody mentioned RL yet, why did you? Anyways, just so we get the RNG lynch our of the way, this is what I think of it (feel free to ignore it if you want though, it doesn't really add anything new to the discussion): I think the point of random lynch is, first, to have EVERYBODY ABSOLUTELY AGREE to lynch whoever is chosen. Then, we somehow randomly choose someone (we can make everybody RNG someone, and the one that comes up the most is chosen). Although scum will surely choose themselves, and will surely not choose a fellow scum member for the lynch, so this gives us info too. Then, we decide to lynch the guy. If nobody objects and completely agrees, then we can be sure that player is town (scum would flip their shit if their team member is RLed on Day 1). If somebody objects, then maybe he's scum (and his scumbuddies are objecting), or it's just a townie changing his mind. In any case, you don't lynch anybody, you use it as a ruse to get information and get confirmed townies and stuff. The gist of it is not mentioning this to anyone though. Anyways, I don't know if this can work or not, so maybe in Post-Game (or now if you want) we can discuss it more thoroughly. Filler, but admitting it to excuse yourself. + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 05:37 gonzaw wrote: Yes, that's the point. You ACT like if you were going to make a lynch based on RNG, but in fact you don't. It's used to get info. If the guy chosen by the RNG is scum, I'm sure scum members will freak out. If the guy is townie, I'm sure nobody will freak out (except that guy obviously). After the guy to lynch is decided, and everybody voices their opinions, you just say "lol jk I wont' random lynch him" and just play normally. Of course I think this may be best suited for a Mayor for instance, since I think those choose the lynch on Day 1, or some similar role (it would be kind of impossible to pull this off in a normal setup). More of the same filler. On January 05 2012 05:46 gonzaw wrote: EBWOP: + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 05:37 CatsnHats wrote: @gonzaw I haven't voted for Gretorp because I thought we weren't supposed to vote until near the end of D1. Throwing a vote out with so many hours left to use for reads isn't very smart. Plus I was waiting for his response, as well as the first posts of Xeris and the return of Blurry, who seems to have fallen off the face of the Earth. Votes can also be used for pressure, and to see the reactions of other players (and the one you voted obviously). Specially on Day 1. Although if you are certain the guy is scum, then vote for him with all your courage and try to convince other people of so. Although okay then, that's fine.I expect you to make some "reads" on Gretorp/Xeris/etc soon though. More back-and-forth chit-chat w/ scumbuddy Cats, so that no-one can back to you about ignoring him. Here you are "learning him how to play", with the previously planned "newbie mistake". Also, what are these "reads" you are talking about? On January 05 2012 12:15 gonzaw wrote: [/b]+ Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 07:59 CookieMaker wrote: My turn. This is my first big read. If you disagree with any of it, please raise the issue. Here are my "Strongest" town reads. Each section will have a brief summary and then reads for the player and reads against, with bolded sections of quotes being the evidence I'm presenting. This was originally going to be longer but I'm starving and heading for groceries asap so I just took the best of what I had. For this play the pro-town evidence feels significantly stronger. Cephiro: -This read is on the big assumption that he is not a highly experienced player disguising himself as a rookie. Otherwise: + Show Spoiler + Appeared nervous at the start with the majority of his math, but I'm chalking it up to newbie nerves. He then goes on to be both active and helpful (even though he may not realize it). Many of his posts seem very slightly hesitant, but my guess on that is because he's seen how these games can quickly bandwagon an innocent townie to hell and he's just slightly afraid. My gut feeling on him is by far the strongest, and if I had to pick anyone right now to be pro-town, it's him. Pro-town evidence: + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 10:42 Cephiro wrote: I'll have to say CookieMaker provides a few good points to start with. Even though none of us knows the exact set up, I would have to argue that we as town have a much better starting point. Considering the case that the mafia would have a role blocker, it will most likely be less useful until later game when people are starting to have better reads on each other. If the town has both the medic and detective, it is quite likely that they will be able to do something useful. (Mafia role blocker would have 9 persons to choose from, since he/she would know the 3 mafia.) That leaves a 2/9 = around 22% chance of roleblocking on the first day, since I'm quite sure there will be no roleclaims this early. On the other hand, the medic has a very small chance of blocking the first kill on N1 (1/11 * 8/9 ~ 8% chance), but the detective has a chance of as much as 27% finding scum on N1 if he doesn't die. (Which would be about 24% in total, which is still higher than the chance of mafia roleblocking.) Note: You may notice I'm into maths a lot.... Also, it might even be that the mafia has a roleblocker but the town has no power roles, which renders the mafia roleblocker useless, making the situation even worse for them. Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1. A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information. Also... What a lovely way to start the game... but on the other hand, I doubt even a newbie scum player would slip that early, even though it could be done on purpose to make us think even a newbie wouldn't slip such, but in fact being scum anyway? In this first post the sentence I like is bolded. Straightforward and to the point, and clearly trying to integrate what he read in other games before this started. + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 00:16 Cephiro wrote: Time for a D1 analysis! Obviously I'll leave myself out, but if someone wants to know more about my opinions / ask why I'm in favor of something, please go ahead, discussion is what we need at the moment. Also, my apologies if I'm wrong with someone's gender, I'll make a mean generalization and expect everyone to be a male until noted otherwise. Player List: 1.CookieMaker For now I'm leaning slightly towards town on him, even though he is quite in-favour of the no-lynch possibility. But I think that may be due to the fact that it's his first game, and he may not have read through/followed many mafia games before. So I'm thinking he's rather be safe than sorry, but hopefully he'll realize the amount of information even a possible mislynch will give us, not even mentioning the huge lead we can get if we nail a mafia on D1. His posts could have slightly more actual content, but he's trying so for now he's okay to me. 2.Liquid`Sheth Hasn't posted anything useful aside from welcoming people and pressuring CatsnHats. Sure, pressuring at this point has to be done, but deciding to pick on one person for no real reason at this point and providing no other content? Hopefully he means well and just tries to make sure CatsnHats plays pro-town regardless of being new, I mean, Sheth does have 2 previous games of TL mafia as a base of experience. But for now, I am reading something between neutral or slightly scum. I dare you to prove me your innocence, so I'll be waiting for your morning post. 3.AnxiousHippo Doesn't seem to have any idea of what he should be doing, but I guess it's understandable since it's only his second game. I am hoping to hear more from you, since you haven't posted enough content to make any kind of read on you. Neutral. 5.Tunkeg Good forewarn on not being able to answer at the start of the game. Appareantly was on the winning side in his first game. He seems like an aggressive type of person, wanting to start the accusations and pressure to get some discussion going on. Thinks that D1 lynch is a must, but backs it up with some very good points. Took the first vote playing it relatively safely, voting for a lurker who hasn't posted yet. Clearly wants something to happen, but I am for now unsure if his method will be very successful. Neutral for now, but if you keep the activity up I should be able to get either a slight-town or slight-scum read on you soon. 6.Jitsu Seems to want to actively participate, and most of his posts so far are convincing people to lynch on D1. Hasn't posted any actual content other than that though, so I will still stand on a neutral read. I am hoping to hear more content from you soon, I need to get more reads. 7.Xeris All I can say is, no content, not a good sign. Neutral. 8.Gretorp Same as above, neutral. 9.Gonzaw Answering people's questions, trying to explain some of the basic stuff that should be understood, looks good to me. I like the way he pushed to know more about how I seem to know about the game, so he seems like he isn't taking anything for granted. Also suggesting pressure voting to get things going. I have a slight town-read here. 10.Blurry Seems to be in favour of no-lynching, wanting to stay on the safe side. Hasn't talked about anything but different possibilities if a mafia roleblocker exists. Not useful. (Okay, I'll have to admit that my statistics post at start wasn't necessarily very useful either, but I've been at least trying to post other content as well.) Neutral for now, but if you won't be posting more, I would lean on slightly scum. 11.Probulous Being very active at the start, and the play seems really town-favouring. Constantly asking for opinions and explaining his reasoning. I like his opinion on lynching, definitely wanting to lynch mafia but still keeping in mind the possibility of being careful incase we don't get any reads on D1. Hopefully we will have some scum reads that we can go for so no-lynch won't be necessary. Pressuring the people that should be on according to timezone but haven't posted. I would have to say you are my strongest town-read so far, I want to hear more of your opinions when you're back. 12.CatsnHats Being a new player, it's understandable that he's a bit confused, but you really need to learn that you CAN'T TRUST anyone but yourself. Whatever you think about the situation or someone's reads, say it, don't just agree or disagree randomly. I'm kind of worried of the chance that you are a townie whom the mafia would be able to talk around easily, but I hope you'll prove me wrong. (about the convincing part.) Or you could be mafia that is pretending to be a super-newbie town on his first game... who knows. But you're neutral so far. Start posting your opinions! I'm not going to vote yet myself, but I will join the pressure voting in a few hours if Xeris and Gretorp aren't going to turn up. More of the same. He lays his cards on the table for all to see, and it's doing it for me. My gut tells me that while a mafia player might make the same post to gain trust, they wouldn't attempt to analyze as hard as he has. Rather, they would use it as more of a confusion technique and be even more wishy-washy. When Ceph isn't sure on someone, or has a weak gut feeling, he still says it, rather than trying to present two opinions and fuel a debate. Similarly, when he's sure of himself, he also is very direct in stating his point. Not only that, but he was dead-on when he said my posts thus far didn't have very much useful content. He was right, I had nothing to go on at the time and was still fishing. I have bolded sections in the above quote that reflect what I like about this. Even though his EBWOP was slightly apologetic, it had a very natural feel to me, out of genuine concern rather than fear. Maybe I'm reading too far into this, but the apology might be a gut reaction to himself having to read so much (a realization I also had as a first-time player). + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 07:14 Cephiro wrote: Hello again everyone! Got caught up watching a good movie, but going to catch up on mafia now: I see your point. I consider that you need to be able to trust some people to some extent in this game, and I am trying to find players which I can be fairly sure of to be townies. That does not mean I will analyze them any less though, I'm not taking anyone for granted neither am I setting anything in stone. I think that the first 24-hours of D1 in this game are quite hard to start pointing scum fingers at someone, but I assure you that whenever my scum sensor alerts, I'll let you all know. So I do get your point about finding scum directly, but I don't want to negate trying to find out whom are town. In my opinion, both is better than just the other. About Gretorp, I am certainly not liking his play so far. He has only posted twice, which of one was appareantly a joke, and the other being an explanation of the first message. The fact that he has posted but still hasn't said anything with content feels suspicious to me. What do you others think? Random Lynching is a retarded idea in my opinion, (since someone brought it up, I'll have my say in this as well.) because we still have more than a whole day on us to make reads, and since we don't have a mayor in this game, we can't use it in the way you were theorycrafting either. I still stand by what I said at start, I want us to be able to get enough reads on people to lynch a scum on day 1. Jitsu's post pretty much sums up my opinion. I don't approve Xeris's play at all so far, all he has is two posts talking about the different ways of lynching, he hasn't provided any opinions about anyone, nor asked anyone else about their reads. Not very pro-town in my opinion. If he isn't going to step up soon, I am probably going to pressure vote for either him or Gretorp. My timezone is GMT +2, so it's around 15 minutes past midnight at the time of this post. I will probably stay up for at least 2 more hours. @Jitsu: I'm actually starting to be really suspicious of him at the moment. He had a very active start, even though his content was somewhat fluffy. I've changed my opinion about him since my earlier post, partly due to many people providing good reasoning about his play so far. I am actually wondering a bit as he hasn't said anything since yesterday's start, so I'm interested to hear if he has some actual opinions or reads to give when he comes back. This recent post is another goodie IMO. Again very direct and unafraid of his position and stance on strategy, as well as attempting to offer genuine contribution. I've again bolded what he says that really ring a green bell with me. His consistency shines through. [bAnti-town evidence: + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 04:41 Cephiro wrote: Okay, I'll admit that my statistical starting post maybe wasn't the best opening post ever, but at least I tried, unlike many others... can't blame me for being excited and trying to contribute! To be honest, I don't understand your claim about me being wishy-washy at the start, when I was clearly trying to push for some points. For example: On the other hand when I read your posts, I see almost nothing useful. You're trying to pressure CatsnHats, and trying to clarify some acronyms and such on D1. You're not posting any of your reads. And now you asked CatsnHats about his opinion on Gretorp when he already posted about it... you're giving surprisingly much attention to him to start the game with in my opinion. I'm pointing my FoS at you. I'll have my eyes on you Sheth. I'm not going to accuse you of being scum yet, but I suggest that you all watch Sheth's posts carefully. You'll have to try harder than that to convince me. Really this is more town-evidence IMO, but some might say that the speed with which he flipped the accusation around makes it suspicious. I tend to think that it's just a bit of an instinctive OMGUS, otherwise he handled the pressure really well and without any trace of guilt. As well, I kinda like his read on Sheth and the way he's now using Sheth's own tactic against him :D -Slightly Bandwagon-ish: He is slightly following the bandwgon on the Xeris train, but I don't blame him at all here because I'm of the same mind. On the whole his contribution has really stuck out to me as useful (or trying to be) rather than "active filler". This is one of the few reads that I'm much more sure of. If there is a medic in this game, my recommendation would be on his protection because I think he will be one of the standards around which the town needs to rally. Gonna grab food, and compile more reads, and tonight I'm gonna hit y'all with some knowledge. Current Opinion: Very Pro-Town So, you made a great analysis of why a player is town. Is this game about finding townies? No. I already said this to Cephiro, our priority is not finding townies. Your priority is not posting walls of text of who you find townie. Your priority is finding scum. Now, apparently you forgot about that part. + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 08:13 CookieMaker wrote: + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 07:58 AnxiousHippo wrote: This is one of the worst posts so far. Cookiemaker points out that Probulous leaves right after making accusations, and later says that he's about to go to sleep too. He also talks vaguely about how people are trusting eachother but so far it's only been cephiro and catsnhats, there's barely any trust from everyone else. He then uses a fancy metaphor which always annoys me, like they're trying to sound better. Then he posts some more useless metaphorical stuff saying he wants people to be a bit more active. and then a poem. cookiemaker clarify what players seem to be trusting eachother sheth tell us what posts are bothering you Also, where did blurry go? @AH The players who I saw as "trusting" each other were Sheth, Probu, and Gonz, who seemed to be employing the similar tactic of applying "harmless" pressure to see what the responses would be. I was going to just come out and say it, but I didn't want to players under fire to be let off that easy, so instead I wrote the cute little Haiku Now really going for food, stay tuned for more action. What? If I pressure people the same way as another player, I trust him? I don't think that makes much sense. Also, I don't really "trust" people in mafia games. I either think they are town, scum, or I'm indecisive. Even if they are town, I may still not trust them. For instance, I may not trust their reads. I believe Probu to be town for instance (for now, he's been absent for some time and I find that worrysome), but even if that's the case I don't really trust him for now. If he finds some scum, then maybe I will. Also, you never explained that "I will vote for the one that has less votes" part, it seems you are trying to ignore that we pointed it out. I think you are scum bro. + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 07:14 Cephiro wrote: Hello again everyone! Got caught up watching a good movie, but going to catch up on mafia now: I see your point. I consider that you need to be able to trust some people to some extent in this game, and I am trying to find players which I can be fairly sure of to be townies. That does not mean I will analyze them any less though, I'm not taking anyone for granted neither am I setting anything in stone. I think that the first 24-hours of D1 in this game are quite hard to start pointing scum fingers at someone, but I assure you that whenever my scum sensor alerts, I'll let you all know. So I do get your point about finding scum directly, but I don't want to negate trying to find out whom are town. In my opinion, both is better than just the other. About Gretorp, I am certainly not liking his play so far. He has only posted twice, which of one was appareantly a joke, and the other being an explanation of the first message. The fact that he has posted but still hasn't said anything with content feels suspicious to me. What do you others think? Random Lynching is a retarded idea in my opinion, (since someone brought it up, I'll have my say in this as well.) because we still have more than a whole day on us to make reads, and since we don't have a mayor in this game, we can't use it in the way you were theorycrafting either. I still stand by what I said at start, I want us to be able to get enough reads on people to lynch a scum on day 1. Jitsu's post pretty much sums up my opinion. I don't approve Xeris's play at all so far, all he has is two posts talking about the different ways of lynching, he hasn't provided any opinions about anyone, nor asked anyone else about their reads. Not very pro-town in my opinion. If he isn't going to step up soon, I am probably going to pressure vote for either him or Gretorp. My timezone is GMT +2, so it's around 15 minutes past midnight at the time of this post. I will probably stay up for at least 2 more hours. @Jitsu: I'm actually starting to be really suspicious of him at the moment. He had a very active start, even though his content was somewhat fluffy. I've changed my opinion about him since my earlier post, partly due to many people providing good reasoning about his play so far. I am actually wondering a bit as he hasn't said anything since yesterday's start, so I'm interested to hear if he has some actual opinions or reads to give when he comes back. Yes that's fine, let's just hope you keep your word that you'll try and find scum though. I'm sure other players will remind you that though. Also, where the hell is Xeris? He ignores my vote and posts completely, then disappears? Wtf? *sigh* this won't get us anywhere. Probu is right about the inactives though, unless we install a "lynch lurkers" policy lynch (or should have installed it long ago), lynching them will not give us that much info, and if they don't post more we can't really get any good reads on them. The thing is that other than the threat of a lynch, how do you pressure lurkers/inactives into posting? If we just let them pass then they could be inactive the whole game or as long as they want. If they are scum they can just cruise through the game. *sigh* I'll just not pay attention to it for now then, unless they post, which I want them to. I suppose this applies to Gretorp too, even though he posted more (but more nonsensical things). ##unvote: Xeris ##vote: CookieMaker You know what Probulous? You remind me of how I see those mafia vets here play. You know, post images that follow giant walls of text, analyzing "behaviours" and such. Now, although I feel you are town, I mostly feel you are a good player, and a dangerous one at that. If you end up being scum I'm sure you will fuck us up. So I urge other players to take a good look at Probu, even if they think he's town, just in case. Also agree that Cephiro isn't actually doing that much in terms of actually contributing, just posting a lot of "town reads" and such, but I already said this to Sheth, I don't actually know if the whole "contributing without contributing" thing that's going on here can apply to newbies who haven't played the game before. Specially with someone as excited to post as Cephiro, he may just post whatever he thinks, even though it may be unnecessary filler or such. I may be wrong though, but I won't take that into account for now. He picks on Cookie here and votes for him due to his newbie play and mistakes. Yet he lets me off the hook for some of the same things. Taking one out, setting the other up for brainwash, trying to convince me into agree whatever your opinion is later. Also, the same mistake Cats did later. Soft pressuring Probu, not really blaming him for anything, but throwing around the idea that he could be scum. Just trying to cause suspicions here. On January 05 2012 12:30 gonzaw wrote: EBWOP2: Shit I feel so stupid, I had another tab opened with the response and didn't see it >_> + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 08:51 Blurry wrote: Part 2: (taking a long time to write this) I know I originally wanted to not lynch somebody but the benefits of information make it a more appealing option and I feel like we have some solid candidates 7: Xeris Has contributed absolutely nothing other than his stance against a lynch today. No analysis or contribution. Leaning on Scum. 8: Gretorp Has also not contributed anything + no stance on any issue presented. Unless he posts something meaningful in the next day he will get my vote. Leaning heavily on scum. 9: Gonzaw Likes to pressure people and prod them for feedback. Also posted his thoughts and took a clear stance on issues. Leaning on town. 10: Me I haven't contributed much other than the Roleblocker thing but I will stand by that. If someone gets role blocked they should immediately say it. The more information the better, and it would be risky for a mafia to claim being role blocked if it gets revealed that there really isn't he is automatically implicated. So guys, if you get role blocked: make sure you tell us. 11: Probulous Another discussion leader. Has been active in contributing and putting pressure on people (catsnhats). Leaning on town for him. 12: CatsNHats Although he may have flip flopped positions early in the game I still feel like he is town as he has not shied away from speaking his mind on who he thinks may be scum. We should pressure him but my stance on him is neutral. Ugh... I don't feel like I added too much with that so I'll go back over everything and post my overall feeling for the game so far. Hmm, I find it interesting how you use the same format Cephiro did for posting your analisis. Did you do that on purpose or is it a coincidence? Also, who are those "solid candidates" you speak of? If you had to lynch only one of them now, who would it be? Gretorp? Does the new events change your opinion or not? Also: + Show Spoiler + I haven't contributed much other than the Roleblocker thing but I will stand by that. If someone gets role blocked they should immediately say it. The more information the better, and it would be risky for a mafia to claim being role blocked if it gets revealed that there really isn't he is automatically implicated. So guys, if you get role blocked: make sure you tell us. Isn't this kind of obvious? Of course if a townie is RBed he should claim, why did you feel the need to state so? Fluff talk about using a similar format. Then you bring up Gretorp again. And.... CONTRADICTION! Here you are saying if a townie is roleblocked they should claim "of course". But earlier you go on about how a possible fake-claim could mess it up, making the town think there is a roleblocker when there isn't. You're being ambigious here, so that you can back up on yourself whatever someone thinks. On January 05 2012 13:04 gonzaw wrote: What's a smurf? 2 different accounts or something? No I'm not implying that (also it doesn't really matter), the fact is that you are playing like those other players, and that makes you dangerous in my book. Ehm, I prefer to discuss WIFOM in the early stages, preferably at the beginning of Day 1 where everybody derps and there is no discussion going on at all, than in the heat of an argument or something on Day 4 or Day 5 should the need arise. Imagine something happens in a night that makes people talk about WIFOM (maybe a Medic dies and someone claims RBed, or something). -If we hadn't discussed it before, then people would start doing it at that time. That would take away precious time to catch scum, could interfere with ongoing arguments, etc, specially if we are at LYLO or something -If we had discussed it before, then as soon as someone mentions anything you tell them "shut up and reread the thread, it was discussed before if you continue we lynch you" and bye bye WIFOM interference. For instance, if someone claims RBed, and another person says "Wait! He could be scum fake-claiming! bla bla bla" I will instantly shut him up and tell him to reread what I posted earlier. Also, just so the discussion about WIFOM doesn't become a WIFOM discussion itself (in the sense that it interferes ongoing discussions), let's just stop right here. Either agree or disagree, we can discuss it in Post-Game or Pre-Game of another game later. Blablabla WIFOM blablabla LYLO blablabla WIFOM blablabla RB blablablabla WIFOM. What's the point? On January 05 2012 13:36 gonzaw wrote: Okay, what is this? If he flips town or mafia (if he's lynched) it will tell alot about a lot of players. Isn't that the reason we were advocating a misslynch earlier? If he flips town, then it means your whole argument regarding him was false. It means that you "misread" a townie and advocated his lynch. Why would you do that? Were you honestly mistaken or did you do it intentionally? Regarding how you react to his flip, and looking at your filler, many players can conclude many things from this. You are basicly implying that if he flips town, then you are not suspicious and nobody should look at you. That would be pretty convinient if you are mafia, and pretty dickish if you are town. Soft-pressuring Probu again. Picking up on his mistakes, trying to punish him for that. On January 05 2012 14:57 gonzaw wrote: EBWOP: + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 14:43 Probulous wrote: Why Sheth  Just when you are looking good you write something that comes across really scummy. You are also making the same mistake I originally did, here are the setup options. Set Up: 1 Mafia Role Blocker, 2 Mafia Goons, 7 Town, 1 Medic, 1 Detective 1 Mafia Role Blocker, 2 Mafia Goons, 9 Town 3 Mafia Goons, 1 Medic, 8 Town 3 Mafia Goons, 1 Detective, 8 Town They can have a roleblocker with no blue roles. It just means that if someone is roleblocked, there are either no power roles or both DT and Medic. No point speculating now. I know you are heading to bed but who are your top 3 scum reads, please before tomorrow morning. Can we got a vote count please? If someone is RBed (again, take the WIFOM I mentioned earlier into account), then if YOU are the DT, YOU know there's a medic, since the only possible setup with both a RBer AND a DT is the 1st one (which coincidentally also has a Medic). He says "Then it means we have a medic who can save you if you come out". He's clearly speaking to the DT here. I thought that was pretty apparent. Backing up scumbuddy Sheth. Then he has a longer post where he blames Xeris, Cookie, and Blurry. ( 3 townies ) + Show Spoiler + On January 06 2012 03:51 gonzaw wrote: + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 18:58 Xeris wrote: I've been quiet because I work around 15-16 hours per day, and realistically, I'll only get to check this thread probably: once in the morning, once or twice at work, and in the night (nowish). I talked about the badness of random lynching because the first few pages of posts kept mentioning random lynching. This thread balloons crazily and I don't have the time to read in detail every post. So when I see 15-20 posts about random number generators and lynching people, I want to explain why I think that's bad. Anyway, it seems like the suspicion points at Cephira and CM (who just got replaced?). Brb reading some of the posts more carefully Meh. I'm not convinced of anything. I'll follow along with a lynch if people are convinced and just going to go for it- but I stand by my belief of not killing on the first day. Seriously, thinking people are scummy because of stupid analysis skills and bad/inconsistent posts is really silly. Although perhaps I have no clue about online mafia, anyway that's basically it from me. Will check in the morning, glgl The problem is not that you are inactive, the problem is the content of the little posts you have. Things like this for intance: + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 04:22 Xeris wrote: I can guarantee you guys that I am not mafia -- I'm a townie. Anyone who has played mafia with me knows how terrible I am at being a mafia. I am a really good townie though, so you should definitely keep me in the game! I don't vote in this thread right?? When are the votes due (i.e. what actual time)? + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 18:58 Xeris wrote: I've been quiet because I work around 15-16 hours per day, and realistically, I'll only get to check this thread probably: once in the morning, once or twice at work, and in the night (nowish). I talked about the badness of random lynching because the first few pages of posts kept mentioning random lynching. This thread balloons crazily and I don't have the time to read in detail every post. So when I see 15-20 posts about random number generators and lynching people, I want to explain why I think that's bad. Anyway, it seems like the suspicion points at Cephira and CM (who just got replaced?). Brb reading some of the posts more carefully Meh. I'm not convinced of anything. I'll follow along with a lynch if people are convinced and just going to go for it- but I stand by my belief of not killing on the first day. Seriously, thinking people are scummy because of stupid analysis skills and bad/inconsistent posts is really silly. Although perhaps I have no clue about online mafia, anyway that's basically it from me. Will check in the morning, glgl Those seem like a contradiction to me, you can't say you are a "really good townie", and then undermine your own play, saying you'll just sheep along, and that you don't have any "clues about online mafia", etc. Actually, it is a contradiction assuming you are town. If you are scum, then it would be perfectly fine, even so since you said you were a horrible scum player, am I right? What's your response? + Show Spoiler + Seriously, thinking people are scummy because of stupid analysis skills and bad/inconsistent posts is really silly. Who exactly are you talking about here? + Show Spoiler + Although perhaps I have no clue about online mafia, anyway that's basically it from me. Will check in the morning, glgl Also, stop doing this. Even if you are a "newbie", you shouldn't "undermine" your own play. It will make other people underestimate you too, and you will have a more difficult time convincing them, etc. ...of course, if you are mafia this is actually pretty good for you, so don't do it (it's just like Gretorp's "joke", it's dumb if he's town, but works for him if he's mafia). If you have the time, I'd like you to respond to my questions to you, and of course give us your thoughts on the current events. + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 15:32 Blurry wrote: I posted in the same format as Cephiro because I'm new to this and I'm trying to pick up on how this game is played. Thus you will see me emulate some things that other players will do or how they format their analysis. This won't be the first time you will see this. Solid Candidates: Gretorp, Cookiemaker I would probably rather lynch Gretorp because he hasn't said anything To your last point: This is a newbie game, maybe its not obvious. I just want to make sure that people know to claim a RB. Emulating other players, just by formating your post in a similar way to make things more tidy and stuff is fine. ...but don't emulate players in other ways. Try to be yourself here. Also this could be the perfect excuse for sheeping or jumping on bandwagons and such "I was just emulating player X!". So try to be as "authentic" here as possible. + Show Spoiler + On January 06 2012 00:53 Blurry wrote: Okay, my last post for the day: Staying on CM/Tea as I am still unsure about Cephiro. Other than that, I'm sorry I couldn't contribute more this first day as I am still new to this and am not sure what to look for in terms of reading players but by going over players posts I am getting a good idea and I'm sure my analysis quality will steadily improve over the course of the game. One thing that strikes me looking back at all this is CM voting for CatsinHats. If CM/Tea is indeed scum then I think this provides evidence towards cats not being scum as I dont think CM would have been that meta especially with the holes in his play he has already shown. This can't be assumed however so I would still be suspicious. To be honest, CM's vote was formatted wrongly. Whether it was intentional or not, I don't know, but the point is that it won't count for the vote tally. There's the small chance both of them are scum, and he formatted wrong on purpose, so don't go assuming otherwise (of course he could have just bussed normally and forgot to format it correctly). Also, damn, this whole replacement thing is kind of a let down. I wanted Cookie to come and explain himself, *sigh* I suppose we can't do that anymore... I'll check Tea's posts in a moment. I also suggest all of you view Tea's posts in the same light you viewed Cookie's posts. If you thought Cookie was scum, then you think Tea is scum; if you thought he was town, you think Tea is town, that's irrefutable. On January 06 2012 06:24 gonzaw wrote: ...wut? You are admiting you scumsliped? Wtf? Should I just assume that was a question and you fucked up the grammar or something? Also, I was under the impression you were assuming there is a blue role, which is stupid at this point (even though there's 75% chance of there being at least 1 blue role, but again leave that to night 1 talk). And like I said, if scum have 3 goons, they know for sure that there is a blue role, and therefore can scumslip. Assuming there is a blue role, and this scumslip are almost impossible to distinguish, so if you are town just stop doing it (you and everybody else, specially the blue roles if there are any). Time to pressure the next townie a bit, Jitsu is under the gun this time. On January 06 2012 06:30 gonzaw wrote: I'm telling you to stop assuming there are blue roles. I was telling Tea to stop talking about blue roles (and Sheth, and those other guys that did so before, and the ones that answered Tea's questions). "I don't want the others to know if there are blues since they could use that information to check us or protect our night-kills." On January 06 2012 10:06 gonzaw wrote: Hmm.. Okay guys, now reread every town and scum read from Cookie/Tea and knowing they were green. Also check everybody's reason for voting them, just like we were discussing with Prob, etc. Hey Prob, a question regarding the inactives: You really think Xeris and Gretorp ONLY (hyperbole here, don't dwell on it) look bad because they are inactive? What do you think about Gretorp's "joke", "promise" of analysis' and failure to state so? What do you think about all the points I mentioned about Xeris? Him saying "I'm a good townie! Look at me!" and then undermining himself? Him posting thoughts about RL (same as Tea) when it was never discussed and failing to address any of these points when he was active?. "Blablabla, our kill went through, I'll post some filler." Re-read his reads knowing he is town and everyone's reasons for voting bla... isn't that obvious? You keep bringing Gretorp up again. You sure want this lurker townie lynched? And then pushing the other lurker too. Going for free town-lynches much? On January 06 2012 10:24 gonzaw wrote: I'm not actually saying they are mafia. They are just VERY scummy, inconsistent, and we NEED TO PRESSURE THEM AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. Ever since the whole Cephiro vs Cookie thing came up, we basicly ignored them. We can't do that anymore. We have to either threaten them with a lynch, or with a DT check (if there is one) or something, they can't go like that anymore. Also, like I said the point is not lynching them just because (that's stupid), the point is getting them to talk. Also, I'm very suspicious of Xeris at the moment. Even though he had 4 posts in which you say makes him "hard to judge", here's what he did: -He contradicted himself. -He talked about mechanics when it wasn't necessary nor was the current discussion -He ignored people's votes and pressure on him. -He played the "I'm a good town! You better not lynch me because I'm good!" and the "Maybe I'm bad at online mafia, don't take my reads into account" card (related to point #1) I can't just ignore him, I can't. "I'm not saying the lurkers are mafia so I can't be called out for that, BUT OH THEY ARE SO SCUMMY AND WE NEED TO GET RID OF THEM, THEY ARE DANGEROUS" Yeah. >.> Keep pushing for the lurkers. On January 06 2012 10:25 gonzaw wrote: EBWOP: For instance, I can't believe EVERYBODY ignored this: Keeps bringing up a quote that doesn't really mean pretty much anything. BUT IT'S A CLEAR SCUM-TELL ABOUT A LURKER!!!! + Show Spoiler + On January 06 2012 11:41 gonzaw wrote: Fair enough. Although remember that just because someone has similar views/reads to you it doesn't make him less mafia or more town. Well, don't we all? Okay, there are 2 basic reasons for voting Tea (or AKCT, whatever): 1-For previous reasons of certain players 2-A bandwagon vote to avoid a no-lynch. Players in the 1st category would include: Me, Tunkmeg, Blurry Players in the 2nd category would include: CatsHats, Sheth, Prob, Jitsu, Cephiro, Hippo *sigh*, not really much to go on on that 2nd category, almost everybody reasoned their vote for Tea to avoid the no-lynch. However, some of the players in the 2nd one did FoS him before. Tunkmeg was the first one to FoS him (I think), but he stated his reasons, and were actually good ones, so quoting him or discussing it any further wouldn't do us much good. About Blurry though: Here he just used Hippo's point to FoS him. Doesn't seem like he put too much effort in analyzing him. Again he's using other people's analysis as well (Prob pointed that out Cookie's sheeping of Jitsu first).. At least Tunkmeg came up with points of his own to FoS Cookie, Blurry seems to regurgitate things already said. Something I don't like here, same as Xeris, Cats, etc. DON'T.APOLOGIZE.FOR.NOTHING Need I remind you to read Ver's Guide, were supposedely the Mider guy was obvious mafia because of his constant apologizing and undermining himself? I already stated my opinion on this subject though (when I responded to Xeris). I pointed out that you don't need to assume unnecessary things. This is not actual WIFOM, but it's a false statement ragarding a WIFOM scenario, which is the same if not worse than the WIFOM itself (but yeah, we still all call it WIFOM nevertheless). You also have a very short filter (post more), and I don't like that "I will emulate other players" attitude: In fact, you didn't respond to me when I pointed that out either. I don't really have a red read on him yet, since he posted way too little. But I want him pressured next day, along Xeris and Gretorp. Some filler analysis which he even admit's is quite nonsense, then pressuring Blurry. (Attack moar townies, you haven't pressured a single scum yet.) | ||
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Cephiro
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