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CatsnHats
Profile Joined October 2011
United States199 Posts
January 13 2012 00:56 GMT
#861
I don't really know what to say right now... I just waiting for the night post. I have a lot to write, I'm just not posting it right now for timing reasons. I will say I think Gonzaw and Paperscraps are mafia (in case I get killed in a little bit). I'm more confident in Gonzaw than Paperscraps.
meow
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
January 13 2012 00:56 GMT
#862
On January 13 2012 09:40 Probulous wrote:
"What happens during the night will tell a lot, at the moment I am suspecting that either Probu or Gonzaw is going to get killed tonight, with me or bkrow being the next in line after that."

Why? See I don't understand this. If we are scummy as hell then surely it makes sense for us to be kept alive? That way one of us can be up for the lynch tomorrow. I would be more worried about yourself or BK (probably BK most of all). Think of it from a mafia point of view, confusion is what leads to a miss-lynch. What shot puts town in the biggest state of chaos? Well one where we gain no information, hence BK stay indoors.


You have a point there, but have you thought of the possibility that mafia could also shoot a person to frame someone as well?

Consider a situation like this: The 2 remaining scum would actually be in bkrow/Cats/Paperscraps. They see two townies (You and Gonzaw) fighting against each other, and they decide to kill the one to make the other look worse. This would be an effective way of working towards a townie lynch on D4, which would win the game for the scum.

On January 13 2012 09:47 Probulous wrote:
Yeah I did bad but at least I took a stance. If I get lynched for that, so be it. As you say I had my reasons. I was confused just like everyone else but I went with what made sense to me. I was wrong but that ok, I'm allowed to be wrong. Being wrong means I stood up for what I felt was the right thing to do, unlike others who just sheep.

You did really well in the short time we had. I stupidly dismissed your breadcrumb evidence and that is why you are on my town list. I said I was playing badly yesterday and it was clearly true. Blurry did us no favours by claiming when he did but I made the situation worse. It's alright though, we will lynch scum today and then finish them off tomorrow.


You are right that Blurry didn't play the medic claim very well. If you are town, I certainly hope you survive the night. In my opinion you've provided more useful content than Gonzaw.

Also... I just realized that we three are the only ones posting. Where is everyone else?
gonzaw
Profile Joined December 2011
Uruguay4911 Posts
January 13 2012 00:57 GMT
#863
On January 13 2012 08:49 Probulous wrote:
Here I made a simple comment that if someone has been roleblocked, they should claim. Gonzaw points out that the mafia could do this as well which will fuck us up. Any information for town is good, look what happened last yesterday when Blurry claimed late. We have a lot more information now than before he claimed. With enough time claims can be verified. Gonz here seems to be suggesting no-one claim when they are roleblocked which keeps town in the dark.


Wtf is this shit?


Gonz here seems to be suggesting no-one claim when they are roleblocked which keeps town in the dark.


I can't fucking believe you could actually think that.


THAT'S NOT WHAT I WAS SUGGESTING AND YOU KNOW IT.


Knowing that Blurry actually was the medic makes this a particularly stark breadcrumb from him. Cephiro congrats on picking that up, I should have listened to you. But I want to point out how useless WIFOM discussions are in the early game. You have zero information to work with and so cannot make reasonable assumptions. All WIFOM does at this point is inflate your post count and clog up the thread. It makes it hard to find out anything because people are discussing stuff which has no bearing on the game.


Guess what? WIFOM discussions in the early game are not useless...

Like I said, discussing whether someone will claim RBed or something on late game is useless.
Just like you did from Day 3 onwards.

Note so far Gonz hasn’t actually targeted anyone for analysis. He writes massive posts with lots of white space but doesn’t really say much. Below is his first attempt at analysis


It's the fucking beginning of fucking Day 1, what the fuck did you expect?

Fluff and filler. This is not pressure, this is pointing out obvious stuff without following through.


How is it not pressure?
If you think that's fluff and filler it's your own fucking fault.

I mean "trusting" people is suddenly a scumslip? It isn't aggressive and doesn't force responses. Then comes his vote





For now I'll pressure vote Xeris to come here and post his thoughts, but if we have nothing to go on by the time the day ends I'll vote for you


Nice way to undermine the value of your vote. Look at the blatant contradiction to what he said on the previous page


At least it will guarantee they will not remain inactive the whole day, since if they do they get lynched.


Nice way to not even fucking read!


The rest of his analysis has him pointing out stuff about Cats and Cookie’s play but again he isn’t aggressive. He doesn’t explain how this makes them mafia or why it isn’t just a newbie mistake. In fact he mentioned Gretorp, Xeris, Cats and Cookie as scummy but voted for Xeris with a “pressure” vote which he himself says does nothing.
He then gets into a discussion with Xeris about Random Voting for some reason. There is some back and forth with Cats and stuff about timezones. There are a lot of posts but not much substance.


What is this?

You are just retelling what I did? What the fuck is the point of that?


Of course there is no substance in the RNG and the timezone argument, what the hell do you expect there?
I said so myself the RNG discussion should just be left for Post-game, it's not my fault Jitsu got caught up with it.


Then straight after my case on Cookie, Cats and Cephiro he post this long thing

Note that he had mentioned Cookie’s stuff earlier but never called him out on it. Then my case comes up and bam he is scum. His reasoning is that Cookie made a big “read” on who is town? As he says your role is to find scum, well Gonz at this point you had not found anyone except Xeris. A lurker who hadn’t posted anything of note. He then gets on Cookie’s case because Cookie trusts people. How are these two things, finding townies and trusting people, a mafia trait? Sure they are not the best townie play but they are hardly pushing a scum agenda. They are pushing for a miss-lynch.


What? Are you twisting my words here?

Of course finding townies and trusting people are mafia traits on themselves, hell, shouldn't that be obvious since a fucking townie did those?

The point is that mafia are likely to do that too, they want to contribute without appearing to do so and want to latch to other townies. "Finding townies" and "Trusting" fall under those two.

Also, again you are twisting my words.
I never said the only reason for FoSing Cookie was that read, hell I was pressuring him before with that "vote" thing, and I can still read what other people find about him.


He calls out Blurry for standing by his insistence that people claim when they are roleblocked, saying it should be obvious. This is a blatant contradiction from his earlier stance on the issue.
Some more WIFOM stuff, a discussion about Smurfs and some back and forth with me about what a lynch says about someone.


It's not a fucking contradiction, wtf are you talking about?

You are doing that "nitpicking over bad wording" thing fucking again.


Some more WIFOM stuff, a discussion about Smurfs and some back and forth with me about what a lynch says about someone.


Again, wtf is this?

You are just telling what I was doing? What's the fucking point of that?



Note that Sheth’s point is that if someone claims a roleblock, then there is likely to be a medic or DT. Mafia have not roleblocked all game, I believe this was their plan from the start. Hence why Gonz points outs the WIFOM to Blurry and why Sheth was so keen to talk about roleblocking and blue roles. In particular the DT. Gonz defends him here as talking to the DT.
This post was scummy as hell to me because there was no reason for Sheth to be talking about the DT. We had decided that before, but instead he tries to talk directly to them giving them misinformation. He says that if there is a roleblock then the DT knows there is a medic. Well as per previous discussions this is all WIFOM because scum could claim a roleblock.
Gonz was the one to point that out but here he defends Sheth. I misread Sheth’s post but upon rereading it looks worse. The fact that Gonz was so quick to defend him makes him scum in my eyes.
Gonz doesn’t really change his style for the rest of the game. He writes these massive posts with very little content.



You made a mistake there, and I corrected it. I didn't fucking know Sheth was scum at that point. I just saw you misreading and nitpicking someones post wrongly.

Also he was speculating if someone was RBed at night, not if someone claimed RBed! Those are 2 fucking different things.
I noticed that and corrected it, what's so fucking wrong?

The fact that Gonz was so quick to defend him makes him scum in my eyes.


??

wtf is this shit?

He writes these massive posts with very little content.


What? You are just being like Tunk here from before, you are being fucking obtuse and making unfounded statements.

Voting analysis
Gonz first vote for a AKCT was because Cookie was scum. His reasons as pointed out were that Cookie was finding townies and trusted people. He never presented an updated case on Cookie. He called him out on small things but never presented a case that shows the scum agenda behind Cookie’s actions. His response on when Cookie flipped town


What?
Do I have to make a gigantic post quoting every single post from everybody, puting images and stuff to make you happy?


Show nested quote +
”Hmmm...”

Such surprise!


???

Are you fucking serious?

He then immediately jump onto Blurry. Now think for a second, we just lynched someone who was obvious a newb town.



Right, because you thought so too at that point :rolleyes:


We lynched him because his play was wishy-washy and it made him look like scum. So what does Gonz do, he jumps on a new candidate which looks exactly like AKCT.


This is fucking


His suspicions are based on actions which were identical to Cookies. Then he gets into a huge argument with Tunk about stupid stuff which I still don’t understand. Tunk rightly points out that Gonz is being distracting. I stupidly assume mafia would not put themselves in the spotlight like this by arguing with their night kill right before the day post. It is bad WIFOM and I shouldn’t have done that.
Again it looks like Gonz is being an aggressive poster trying to catch people but in reality he pulls Tunk up on stupid stuff. It was clear that Tunk was town the same for Jitsu. But earlier he called Jitsu out for supposedly claiming to be scum. This whole episode just reeks of looking like contributing without contributing.


Are you fucking kidding me?

Blurry's actions were identical to Cookies? What is that shit that couldnt' be further from the truth.


Whilst at the same time calling out Blurry on his WIFOM. The irony that Gonz is apparently the king of WIFOM but he finds Blurry’s WIFOM a scum tell?
Then comes his massive rant after Jitsu’s mentions him before his death.



You are fucking twisting my words again goddamit!

This doesn’t say anything except more crap about Blurry. As far I can tell he has no case against Blurry. Everything used to describe Blurry’s play could be used to describe Cats’ play. Hel Gonz was the king of WIFOM and he hasn’t explained how WIFOM at this point of the game is bad. It is certainly better now than in the early days. At least now we have some information to go off.

Then comes his vote for Blurry which I have responded to. The only thing that is of note is that Blurry hardly corresponded with Sheth. Of course he hardly corresponded with anyone so that doesn’t really mean anything. But Gonz goes balls to wall on Blurry.

I point out that Blurry would have had to bus Sheth very early for his case to make sense and given Blurry’s play it seems to sophisticated. Of course Gonz points out that the plan is pretty simple. He knows because that is exactly what he did. Blurry had no shown high quality play all game. He hadn’t provided any reads and was waffling a lot, Gonz however has shown he is willing to make risky decisions. He is willing to put himself out there. Thus I think it highly likely he would do something like bus Sheth. Especially since he was already seen as town.

He then attacks me for defending Blurry. I stupidly (sorry Blurry I was bad yesterday) back down. If I believe someone is town then I should defend them. Hell if you think someone is mafia you should attack but let others counter your arguments. Only mafia know for sure if someone is town. Gonz’s insistence that Blurry defend himself only makes sense from a mafia point of view. A town’s person wants to know where he is wrong. He cannot be certain, but Gonz doesn’t want counter arguments.


I fucking already explained why WIFOM at late game is bad.

And you are lying when you say Blurry's play was the same as Cats and Cookie, what the fuck are you on?



You also didn't fucking respond to the points I made before, not to that Blurry shit you pulled.


You are nitpicking my posts, you are creating "scenarios" regarging a Sheth bus and that "defence" and that setup thing.
What the fuck?



If you survive tonight then I'll be mostly sure you are scum, and you were trying to make me "suspicious" all long with the WIFOM shit and nitpicking, even if you said you thought I was as a confirmed townie to you
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
January 13 2012 00:57 GMT
#864
Timing again!
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
January 13 2012 00:58 GMT
#865
On January 13 2012 09:56 CatsnHats wrote:
I don't really know what to say right now... I just waiting for the night post. I have a lot to write, I'm just not posting it right now for timing reasons. I will say I think Gonzaw and Paperscraps are mafia (in case I get killed in a little bit). I'm more confident in Gonzaw than Paperscraps.


Nice timing, just as I was wondering where everyone else is.... What makes you more confident in believing Gonzaw is mafia than Paperscraps? (I have a valid reason to ask this from you)
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
January 13 2012 01:00 GMT
#866
I am the Detective

When Blurry claimed I did not believe that scum had a role-blocker. Why would they withhold their one weapon that hides information from us? For two nights no less. Especially after Sheth died.

So I figured Blurry must be lying. Hence I pushed for his lynch. Then I ran the scenario through my head that mafia had kept their role-blocker secret all game and Blurry was a medic.

Well with his claim so close to deadline and Gonz pushing for his lynch it would make sense for mafia to roleblock him and shoot me. That way Blurry looks scummy as hell and would probably get lynched. So either way we lose myself and Blurry.

In addition, we could have miss-lynched yesterday which would mean a Blurry miss-lynch would win the game for mafia. If Blurry was a medic I would come out looking scummy as hell if I pushed for his lynch, hopefully that would save me from a nightkill.

My reads have been Sheth for the first night because of Cephiro’s post

My read the second night was Hippo/Bk. This was because I wanted to remove one of the lurkers from my list. Hippo was looking scummy and I couldn’t make up my mind, hence the read. Bk is town.

The problem is that we were one miss-lynch away yesterday and we are still one miss-lynch away from losing. I was hoping my gamble would save me tonight so I could get a read on Gonz. Of course it is likely that I have been roleblocked if not shot but there is a small possibility that they don’t think I am the DT. Plus leaving me alive for so long makes me look really scummy.

I have not investigated Cats but don't feel he is mafia based on his play. That leaves two mafia in
  • Cephiro
  • Gonzaw
  • Paperscraps


If I survive we can discuss this later. If not, good luck guys and I wish town the best!

"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
gonzaw
Profile Joined December 2011
Uruguay4911 Posts
January 13 2012 01:01 GMT
#867
EBWOP:

"Of course finding townies and trusting people are mafia traits on themselves,"

Should be

"Of course finding townies and trusting people are NOT mafia traits on themselves,"

Fucking I can't edit
CatsnHats
Profile Joined October 2011
United States199 Posts
January 13 2012 01:02 GMT
#868
Gonzaw never posts anything of substance. Just look at his defense post above. If you even FOS him a little bit, he goes into WTF fuck fuck fuck are you kidding me? mode. All of his post are just little incredulous statements that mean nothing followed by a question mark.
meow
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
January 13 2012 01:03 GMT
#869
Gonzaw, please leave the anger and swearing and vengeful wrath at home.

It doesn't help us out at all. It just makes it hard to read what you are trying to say.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
CatsnHats
Profile Joined October 2011
United States199 Posts
January 13 2012 01:03 GMT
#870
@Prob I knew it! I didn't want to say anything though.
meow
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
January 13 2012 01:04 GMT
#871
Was my timing right? I hope I didn't just fuck myself again with the timezones
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
CatsnHats
Profile Joined October 2011
United States199 Posts
January 13 2012 01:04 GMT
#872
@Prob who did you investigate tonight? In case you get killed.
meow
CatsnHats
Profile Joined October 2011
United States199 Posts
January 13 2012 01:05 GMT
#873
You're on the right time, but Grey said the post would be a little delayed.
meow
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
January 13 2012 01:06 GMT
#874
Yeah I knew you did Cats, I pretty claimed it when I went after Sheth. Then yesterday when I called Blurry a liar that pretty much sealed the deal. If I am still alive after this night it will be a miracle.

So before I pass on the great beyond known as the Observer QT, Cats if you are town I want to congratulate you and really picking up your play. You would the award for most improved in my eyes.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
January 13 2012 01:06 GMT
#875
I said it in my post. Gonz.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
CatsnHats
Profile Joined October 2011
United States199 Posts
January 13 2012 01:06 GMT
#876
EBWOP: Sorry a read that so fast cause I was excited and missed you saying you investigated Gonz
meow
CatsnHats
Profile Joined October 2011
United States199 Posts
January 13 2012 01:09 GMT
#877
Thanks Prob, you've been our MVP up until now. I knew you were DT because you said you HAD to lynch Sheth, even if you're arguments were irrational. I thought you had checked my N2 though, because you changed your opinion of me and I didn't think that was possible unless you had looked at me.
meow
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
January 13 2012 01:09 GMT
#878
Good timing with the claim there. Now we have one confirmed townie (bkrow), for the D4, if you actually are the DT.

What I don't like is that you seem to be blindly trusting Cats. If he is scum, he has been playing pretty damn brilliantly, not being lynched even after all the suspicions on him multiple times. If he is town, then I can agree that he has definitely improved. We'll see what D4 brings us...
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
January 13 2012 01:10 GMT
#879
On January 05 2012 14:09 Probulous wrote:

Show nested quote +
Also, if you've found one mafia you should come out in the open and tell us about it. There are other situations where either medic or detective should come out, such as if you know 3 confirmed town and were nearing LYLO. Use your best judgement on those situations. Does everyone agree that if you find a mafia the detective should come out with them?


Can we try to agree on something :p

This just puts you into a WIFOm situation where you end up trading a DT for one mafia. I don't like that trade. DT should stay hidden.


On January 05 2012 14:17 Probulous wrote:

On the topic of DTs, medics and the such. I stand by what I wrote in my analysis of both Cookie and Cephiro, I don't want to discuss them. My personel preference is for blues to stay hidden and do their own thing. I agree that a medic should obviously choose a dangerous townie (dangerous from a mafia POV), but again we don't need to discuss this. This is the last thing I will say about blue roles.


On January 05 2012 14:19 Probulous wrote:

*Personal.

I hate it when people get that wrong and I just did it. For shame


For those interested. This was when Sheth was going on about the DT.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
CatsnHats
Profile Joined October 2011
United States199 Posts
January 13 2012 01:10 GMT
#880
EBWOP: your* geez I'm too excited to type this fast
meow
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