|
On January 08 2012 13:44 CatsnHats wrote:Show nested quote +On January 08 2012 13:22 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
I'm staying up till Responsibility ends. (My last game here). So please post while I'm still here Prob! Or Cats! I don't feel comfortable voting for you Sheth. I think Xeris, Gretorp, AnxiousHippo, and Blurry all have had as much scummy behavior as you, just less activity. I think you are getting targeted because you have a higher quantity of posts, making it easier for you to be quoted/analyzed. My target right now would be Blurry or AnxiousHippo, mainly because they are the most likely to respond at this point. Blurry has made 11 posts overall (an amount big enough to be remembered, but not enough to be picked apart like you), 1post yesterday, which is WIFOM filler Show nested quote +On January 06 2012 00:53 Blurry wrote:
Okay, my last post for the day:
Staying on CM/Tea as I am still unsure about Cephiro.
Other than that, I'm sorry I couldn't contribute more this first day as I am still new to this and am not sure what to look for in terms of reading players but by going over players posts I am getting a good idea and I'm sure my analysis quality will steadily improve over the course of the game.
One thing that strikes me looking back at all this is CM voting for CatsinHats. If CM/Tea is indeed scum then I think this provides evidence towards cats not being scum as I dont think CM would have been that meta especially with the holes in his play he has already shown. This can't be assumed however so I would still be suspicious. and one post today, which was WIFOM filler. Show nested quote +On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote:
I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things.
Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way.
My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum. His big analysis post was 1-2 sentences on each player. Not enough content. Thoughts?
Seriously, your reasons to defend Sheth are horrible. Actually, they're non-existant. "The lurkers look scummy and I think you are being picked on because you're active". He took a risk by playing active, trying to look like a townie, and it backfired since we were able to get the real read on him. You're not going to talk your way out of yourself being scum, and you're not going to be able to save your buddy Sheth either. When either of you flips red today, we have our target for tomorrow.
On January 08 2012 14:16 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
@Cats / Blurry/ Anxious and even you Cephiro the proven townie of Probulous, are you willing to put your vote on me?
You should answer this one way or the other. Please don't just say "because Probulous says so" though. Find your own reasons for lynching me, and just please check my answer for it, if I've answered whatever problem you may have with me. We should be looking at others and I really wish I had the energy to write up a huge post tonight on everyone. Responsibility just ended, G'nite guys, cya in the morning.
Yes, I certainly am. I find it hilarious how you're trying to make me look scummy by making a sarcastical remark about Probu's current read on me. It's not like he determines who is town or scum, we all do ourselves. And I'm certainly not voting for you "just because Probulous says so". I've had my reasons for lynching you for quite a while, and now I'm finally on the edge of getting to some results.
On January 08 2012 22:40 Blurry wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On January 08 2012 10:21 Probulous wrote:Show nested quote +On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote:
I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things.
Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way.
My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum. Terrible post, Gonz is right this tells us nothing at all. However you at least posted your thoughts on Sheth (Cats I'm looking at you). So to make it easy Blurry, would you vote to lynch Sheth? If not why not? Yes I would, and will. #Vote: Liquid'Sheth As to gonzaw's statement of me simply regurgitating information. For the most part that has been true but I've been going by my gut, which is not something you can post when convincing other people to take your side. I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start but don't have the analysis skills to back it up (I know that will read as scummy but bear with me) and write an informed post as to why. If I don't have the evidence to back up my feelings then there is no point in posting it.
This post is just... I don't really know even what to say. Even if you have only a gut feeling, then try and try even harder to find those flaws in their play which can back up your gut feeling. There must be something that causes you the gut feeling. Reasoning that you don't have the analysis skills to back it up is not enough. Everyone may not be able to make 2000 word wall-of-texts, but you can certainly contribute even without doing so. You're not looking good... Step it up or be the next in line for a lynch.
I finally find Sheth's analysis I've been waiting for!
On January 09 2012 05:03 Liquid`Sheth wrote:1. AnxiousHippo : Starts off stating he is a new player (2nd game) and doens't know what to do early on. Starts off with pressuring CookieMaker Not confident enough on his read on cookiemaker and puts a placeholder vote on Xeris. Then instead of reverting back to his own case on CM, he states he hasn't had enough time to read others cases on CM (A K C T) and votes on him to avoid a no-lynch. He then posts a nice argument against Cephiro : + Show Spoiler +On January 06 2012 16:31 AnxiousHippo wrote:Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 12:09 Gretorp wrote:
And i will be doing a huge post otnight most likely just got to get caught up since it grew a lot When? Don't think we've forgotten. Xeris doesn't quite look scummy because we have nothing to analyse him on but he does look pretty dodgy, especially with Sheth's post in mind. Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 12:57 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
Well, the Xeris thing is based completely on the fact that I know him really well IRL and we've played mafia a bunch before. He is really bad mafia. Like he'd be lurking and mod killed if he was mafia. He's already been warned, in a not-newbie game it'd be a modkill. At the moment Cephiro looks more like mafia than CatsnHats, partly because I don't know what to make of Cats' "I give up post". He was also trying to play it safe till the pressure came on. Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 01:23 Cephiro wrote:On January 05 2012 01:10 Tunkeg wrote:
What is it that makes you think CookieMaker is slightly town? You have listed alot of anti-town things about him but not one pro-town thing. He had a very good start in my opinion, posting actively and talking about the different possibilities. I also like the fact that even though he is (or at least was) in favour of the no-lynch, he didn't give up on his thoughts just like that, but was sticking up for himself and why he thinks it's a good idea. I do have to admit that his last posts are quite fluffy, which is why I'm only carefully and only slightly leaning towards town on him for now. Jitsu had a few very good points about him though, which I slightly agree with. But for now I will still stick to my opinion about slightly town, until he posts more. He is on the edge of neutral and slightly town to me though. Also, I am finding myself on thinking of Jitsu as slightly town now. His last post was exactly what I wanted to see from him. On the other hand, I am still not sure about you. I think you are going slightly overboard with how much you are asking other's opinions, but not providing as much of your own. You have been suspecting quite a lot of people this early, and to what I see, there are two possibilities. Either you are mafia and trying to confuse people by trying to accuse a bit of everyone, or then you are just playing aggressive town, fishing for reactions for easier reads. I certainly hope you are the latter. But I remain neutral on you for now. He says he sees Jitsu and CM as slightly town and he's neutral on Tunkeg. He also falls back on "being excited" twice Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 02:38 Cephiro wrote:On January 05 2012 02:24 Tunkeg wrote:
@Ceph and Cats
You guys say I have been suspicious to many players allready. Well, then you missread me, I am only suspicious to CM atm. xeris and Gretorp I am not suspicious of as of yet, just saying I will vote for them if they don't step up.
In my post to Blurry I didn't say I think he is suspicious, only that he haven't contributed greatly yet.
Ceph you said you think I have made to many questions posts and to little content posts. Well, to me content is opinions and analyzis of others play, and in my opinion I have allready made more content than you, including your day one analyzis post. I will give you credit for putting it out there, and it might lead to some discussion, but I think your reads are to vague and therefor the value of it isn't the greatest.
In closing I will say that I am not suspicious of you two as of yet, so there will be no missunderstanding. I see, good of you to clarify that. After re-reading your filter a few times, I personally think that you have posted a lot of opinions, but not that much analysis. I do see your point what you're getting at, and I also do understand your opinion about my analysis post. I do have to agree with you they don't tell that much yet, but I am trying to provide others an idea of my opinions at the moment, and raising dicussion to help me clarify my reads. Might also have to do with me still being excited to get this game started.  + Show Spoiler +Hopefully they will answer your question posts seriously so we'll get more content thanks to you. I am not suscpicious of you either, but your recent answer enables me to get a better understanding of your playstyle, which I thank you for.
About your question as of Jitsu's post, it seems like he likes to concentrate his play on a few persons, which is very understandable. For me that post is making me lean to slightly-town on him, but I would like to see him take contact to more persons and his opinions about others too. If he isolates himself to only put pressure on these two it can have it's good sides, but at least I want to hear more of his thoughts before I say anything. He hasn't posted very much yet, but I still don't think he's scum. Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 04:41 Cephiro wrote:On January 05 2012 03:58 Liquid`Sheth wrote:Ahhh yea. Gretorp getting busy. I like it. Were going to get some scum. Ok, well, I'm going to analyse some games for a bit, as I have to work. However before I go, I geuss I'll point out one thing. Everyone seems to be accusing everyone. It doesn't help, because we know its just one persons pressure and honestly we assume its fake pressure, because after all its day1 and we don't have any great reads. So, instead of this I recomend we get behind one person and see if they can tell us why they ARE NOT mafia. I was planning on leaning on Cephiro, for his post here : + Show Spoiler +On January 04 2012 10:42 Cephiro wrote:I'll have to say CookieMaker provides a few good points to start with. Even though none of us knows the exact set up, I would have to argue that we as town have a much better starting point. Considering the case that the mafia would have a role blocker, it will most likely be less useful until later game when people are starting to have better reads on each other. If the town has both the medic and detective, it is quite likely that they will be able to do something useful. (Mafia role blocker would have 9 persons to choose from, since he/she would know the 3 mafia.) That leaves a 2/9 = around 22% chance of roleblocking on the first day, since I'm quite sure there will be no roleclaims this early. On the other hand, the medic has a very small chance of blocking the first kill on N1 (1/11 * 8/9 ~ 8% chance), but the detective has a chance of as much as 27% finding scum on N1 if he doesn't die. (Which would be about 24% in total, which is still higher than the chance of mafia roleblocking.) Note: You may notice I'm into maths a lot.... Also, it might even be that the mafia has a roleblocker but the town has no power roles, which renders the mafia roleblocker useless, making the situation even worse for them. Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1.
A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information.Also... Show nested quote +On January 04 2012 10:12 Probulous wrote:
Come on town let the streets flow with red red blood! What a lovely way to start the game... but on the other hand, I doubt even a newbie scum player would slip that early, even though it could be done on purpose to make us think even a newbie wouldn't slip such, but in fact being scum anyway? It comes down to a wall of text that tell us nothing. It just makes it look like hes contributing a lot when in fact he hasn't come up with a new opinion and his others posts are very non-committal. Just like wishy washy, things, and I thought it was just weird. However this morning you posted + Show Spoiler +On January 05 2012 00:16 Cephiro wrote:
Time for a D1 analysis! Obviously I'll leave myself out, but if someone wants to know more about my opinions / ask why I'm in favor of something, please go ahead, discussion is what we need at the moment.
Also, my apologies if I'm wrong with someone's gender, I'll make a mean generalization and expect everyone to be a male until noted otherwise.
Player List:
1.CookieMaker
For now I'm leaning slightly towards town on him, even though he is quite in-favour of the no-lynch possibility. But I think that may be due to the fact that it's his first game, and he may not have read through/followed many mafia games before. So I'm thinking he's rather be safe than sorry, but hopefully he'll realize the amount of information even a possible mislynch will give us, not even mentioning the huge lead we can get if we nail a mafia on D1. His posts could have slightly more actual content, but he's trying so for now he's okay to me.
2.Liquid`Sheth
Hasn't posted anything useful aside from welcoming people and pressuring CatsnHats. Sure, pressuring at this point has to be done, but deciding to pick on one person for no real reason at this point and providing no other content? Hopefully he means well and just tries to make sure CatsnHats plays pro-town regardless of being new, I mean, Sheth does have 2 previous games of TL mafia as a base of experience. But for now, I am reading something between neutral or slightly scum. I dare you to prove me your innocence, so I'll be waiting for your morning post.
3.AnxiousHippo
Doesn't seem to have any idea of what he should be doing, but I guess it's understandable since it's only his second game. I am hoping to hear more from you, since you haven't posted enough content to make any kind of read on you. Neutral.
5.Tunkeg
Good forewarn on not being able to answer at the start of the game. Appareantly was on the winning side in his first game. He seems like an aggressive type of person, wanting to start the accusations and pressure to get some discussion going on. Thinks that D1 lynch is a must, but backs it up with some very good points. Took the first vote playing it relatively safely, voting for a lurker who hasn't posted yet. Clearly wants something to happen, but I am for now unsure if his method will be very successful. Neutral for now, but if you keep the activity up I should be able to get either a slight-town or slight-scum read on you soon.
6.Jitsu
Seems to want to actively participate, and most of his posts so far are convincing people to lynch on D1. Hasn't posted any actual content other than that though, so I will still stand on a neutral read. I am hoping to hear more content from you soon, I need to get more reads.
7.Xeris
All I can say is, no content, not a good sign. Neutral.
8.Gretorp
Same as above, neutral.
9.Gonzaw
Answering people's questions, trying to explain some of the basic stuff that should be understood, looks good to me. I like the way he pushed to know more about how I seem to know about the game, so he seems like he isn't taking anything for granted. Also suggesting pressure voting to get things going. I have a slight town-read here.
10.Blurry
Seems to be in favour of no-lynching, wanting to stay on the safe side. Hasn't talked about anything but different possibilities if a mafia roleblocker exists. Not useful. (Okay, I'll have to admit that my statistics post at start wasn't necessarily very useful either, but I've been at least trying to post other content as well.) Neutral for now, but if you won't be posting more, I would lean on slightly scum.
11.Probulous
Being very active at the start, and the play seems really town-favouring. Constantly asking for opinions and explaining his reasoning. I like his opinion on lynching, definitely wanting to lynch mafia but still keeping in mind the possibility of being careful incase we don't get any reads on D1. Hopefully we will have some scum reads that we can go for so no-lynch won't be necessary. Pressuring the people that should be on according to timezone but haven't posted. I would have to say you are my strongest town-read so far, I want to hear more of your opinions when you're back.
12.CatsnHats
Being a new player, it's understandable that he's a bit confused, but you really need to learn that you CAN'T TRUST anyone but yourself. Whatever you think about the situation or someone's reads, say it, don't just agree or disagree randomly. I'm kind of worried of the chance that you are a townie whom the mafia would be able to talk around easily, but I hope you'll prove me wrong. (about the convincing part.) Or you could be mafia that is pretending to be a super-newbie town on his first game... who knows. But you're neutral so far. Start posting your opinions!
I'm not going to vote yet myself, but I will join the pressure voting in a few hours if Xeris and Gretorp aren't going to turn up. Which has some negatives and actually contribues some, so I'll back off for now. Kinda ironic that you wanted me to post my read today and my read was on you. @Tunkeg we shall see. CatsnHats what do you think about this Gretorp guys first too posts. Good / bad / scummy?!? Okay, I'll admit that my statistical starting post maybe wasn't the best opening post ever, but at least I tried, unlike many others... can't blame me for being excited and trying to contribute! To be honest, I don't understand your claim about me being wishy-washy at the start, when I was clearly trying to push for some points. For example: On January 04 2012 10:42 Cephiro wrote:
Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1.
A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information. On the other hand when I read your posts, I see almost nothing useful. You're trying to pressure CatsnHats, and trying to clarify some acronyms and such on D1. You're not posting any of your reads. And now you asked CatsnHats about his opinion on Gretorp when he already posted about it... you're giving surprisingly much attention to him to start the game with in my opinion. I'm pointing my FoS at you. I'll have my eyes on you Sheth. I'm not going to accuse you of being scum yet, but I suggest that you all watch Sheth's posts carefully. You'll have to try harder than that to convince me. He also says he doesn't think Sheth is mafia but asks everyone else to watch him closely, implying he wants other people to call him out first so he doesn't have to worry about it. His vote for Tea was also just a placeholder even though he said none of his top 3 scumreads is Tea. Show nested quote +On January 06 2012 08:22 Cephiro wrote:
Placeholder vote since I am quite sure I will not have enough time to convince the town on lynching someone else, sorry AKCT. :/
If there are some specific points anyone of you want me to answer, please point them out now.
##Vote A Killer Cuppa Tea Show nested quote +On January 06 2012 08:37 Cephiro wrote:On January 06 2012 08:23 Probulous wrote:
Two questions Ceph
Would you vote for AKCT?
From that post you think Sheth, Cats and myself are scum? Is that right? I don't want to put words in your mouth again so please label the three scum for me.
Thanks for coming out guns blazing. Voted for AKCT. We need to get a lynch today. This will be a short post since I don't think I will have time for a full analysis, but at the moment the top-3 scumreads (in no particular order) for me are:
Liquid`Sheth, CatsnHats, Gretorp.I am fairly sure that one of the lurkers is scum, even though I could be wrong. Gretorp has promised analysis twice, but nothing so far. Even though I do not like Xeris's overly safe play, I find Gretorp more scum than him at the moment. I was thinking about building a bigger case against you, since you seemed to go for me so aggressively, but even if I would like to see more of your reads on others, I think you have a reason to keep them to yourself for now, and you're just trying to pressure the hell out of who you think are scum. So I'm actually leaning town on you. @Jitsu if you look back at where he said Tea you'd see that I talked right before and after. @CatsNHats get your head back in the game if you're town you should be more focused on killing mafia than convincing everyone you're a dead weight. Just keep trying, your last paragraph was decent, try expanding on that. Then says hes working on "bandwagon analysis" which he has yet to post. Null read.
I like it how the biggest part of your analysis on him is about when he made his poor case on me, trying to accuse me for the worst reasons ever, but you lift it up as a "Nice case". Trying to get everyone's attention on me eh?
More text coming up.. this is taking longer than I expected. Especially going to check up on a certain few of Sheth's analyses.
|
On January 09 2012 05:03 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
I'm asking when is wise for blue roles to come out. As this is a newb game and it STILL hasn't been covered much I think its very valid. Your statistics just told us %'s, but nothing on when they should come out and help town. You take something that is pro-townie and call it "obvious mafia trying to fish out the players with power roles". Thats not something a townie would do.
You keep up bringing my statistics which talk about chances in percentages even though I admit they were useless at that point and I dropped them since. On the other hand, percents come up in your filter a few times as well. Blaming me on something you do yourself? Trying to constantly fish on blues yourself, you try and claim that is trying to help them into realizing when they should claim. Now that's not something a townie would do.
On January 09 2012 05:03 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
He then calls me out for "bandwagoning" himself
Your defense to this was putting "" these on the word bandwagoning. Not convincing. Couldn't take the truth?
Liquid`Sheth wrote:
I guess I should have brought all of this up earlier, but I thought Prob's post was good enough to get us lynching him.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Again, not continuing your pressure, but letting someone do the dirty work for you. What on earth are you doing Sheth, at first you tell everyone that they should not trust you or anyone else, but think for themselves, and now you're bandwagoning hardcore.
My response is under the line. Check the bolded. You have thought of me as scum the whole game, yet you don't push for it. Bad Sheth, Bad.
On January 09 2012 05:29 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
8. Blurry -- Havn't filtered you in depth yet, but can get into basics.
You assume that mafia targeted Tunkeg for a completely different reason then I believe. You believe its because of his reads on people such as myself / gonzaw and cephiro. You feel like thats why it was him instead of Probulous. I think its just because up to this point Probulous was the most "town" feeling and mafia was worried there was a medic involved.
Leaving out quite a bit since I'm not here to nitpick on his analysis about Blurry. Check the bolded. If anyone, wouldn't he as mafia know the reasoning why Tunkeg was targeted.
On January 09 2012 05:33 CatsnHats wrote:
@Sheth You aren't my best read on scum, I said the town had the best case against you because Prob had just made his long analysis post. Then you defended yourself, which I was waiting on, and because of it I'm not comfortable voting for you. I'm still convinced than when Xeris and Gretorp are killed one of them will turn red, and Hippo and Blurry have always been more questionable than you in my eyes. Honestly I would vote for myself with Jitsu and you if it meant keeping you alive, because you are obviously much better at making reads and are a bigger asset to the town than I am.
Here you are, ready to save your scumbuddy. After your martyr post, you haven't really been making cases against anyone, but you've been defending Sheth a surprisingly lot since Probu's case on him. But you haven't provided any real reasons for that before this, and all you say is "because of his defense". You don't point out what made you lean town on him. Not convincing enough. I'll do admit Hippo & Blurry are questionable, but more than Sheth?
No townie should do the bolded. No one.
On January 09 2012 05:37 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
Having re-read Jitsu's filter and Cats' filter a couple of times, I feel confident that Cats actually has been getting help from his mafia brethren on a few posts and that he actually is scum. I think he is our best bet at getting a mafia tonight, and when he flips red we'll have much more information to go on.
##Vote: Catsnhats
Ah, the mafia sacrifices one of their members for their dear godfather. Could the bolded be because you tried your best to help him get back in the game, helping his posts and trying to gain him some town-cred? But that plan didn't work, so he has to save you instead.
On January 09 2012 05:44 Liquid`Sheth wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On January 09 2012 05:33 CatsnHats wrote:
@Sheth You aren't my best read on scum, I said the town had the best case against you because Prob had just made his long analysis post. Then you defended yourself, which I was waiting on, and because of it I'm not comfortable voting for you. I'm still convinced than when Xeris and Gretorp are killed one of them will turn red, and Hippo and Blurry have always been more questionable than you in my eyes. Honestly I would vote for myself with Jitsu and you if it meant keeping you alive, because you are obviously much better at making reads and are a bigger asset to the town than I am. @CatsnHats Wowowowow what is this. You're just doing this really passive sort of thing and trying to self-lynch yourself. There is NO reason you should do this if you are townie. You should FIND someone you think is scum. THERE IS NO REASON FOR YOU TO VOTE FOR YOURSELF IF YOUR TOWN. It means its the lurkers, or one of the actives, people are good at hiding if there mafia and we need townies alive and fighting. I see no reason for a townie to try this a second time, but man if your town this is going to be really bad if we lynch you. Here, I'll try and steel internet from my friends house (where I'm watching the game) and keep watching this thread and what your saying. I'm not letting you off because of this though, we'll see if you can change my mind before then.
Hilariously enough, this is your next post. Trying to make up for Cats' slip, so that no-one would think that Cats is dying to save his ass.
On January 09 2012 08:11 CatsnHats wrote:
EBWOP: and Prob I agree I have little to no influence on this town, but those are blatant mistakes that need to be corrected.
Allowed, will check into them asap.
Liquid`Sheth wrote:
JUST BUSSING ME FOR NO REASON. YOUR SO MAFIA.
LOL. No reason indeed. And you say I should read the thread?
|
Can't wait to see the first scum hanging. Don't you dare to change votes...
|
On January 09 2012 10:01 Probulous wrote:
ROFL
INDEED! :D Did we get enough votes to lynch him or not?
|
EBWOP: Whew, we did. Wasn't sure on the votecount.
|
On January 09 2012 10:03 Probulous wrote:Only just, at first I thought it was an attempt to no-lynch but I see now it just meant that he didn't have to vote for himself. I like that 
I already got scared for a moment. A no-lynch would have got the mafia a free kill. Now all that remains is to see Sheth flip red.... if he won't I'll be damned.
|
On January 09 2012 10:07 CatsnHats wrote:Show nested quote +On January 09 2012 10:05 Cephiro wrote:On January 09 2012 10:03 Probulous wrote:Only just, at first I thought it was an attempt to no-lynch but I see now it just meant that he didn't have to vote for himself. I like that I already got scared for a moment. A no-lynch would have got the mafia a free kill. Now all that remains is to see Sheth flip red.... if he won't I'll be damned. I have a feeling you're gonna be damned... just sayin'.
And I have a feeling that your scumbuddy is going to be hanged... just sayin'.
|
EBWOP: Also, thanks Sheth for a great game, no hard feelings!
|
The excitement! >.< Must know regardless of the fact I should wake up early tomorrow (3:20 AM here). Oh well, a few minutes here or there.
|
YAY! I just knew I was right on this one! And now to be afraid of getting night-killed. >.<
Also.... You're looking quite bad Cats. The only thing that will save you is if we find the third scum during D3.
|
EBWOP: Thanks, you posted just as I was writing mine.
|
EBWOP again: But going to go and sleep now, so goodnight everyone. Should be able to be active during the night-phase, at least later on.
|
Well it's been an awfully quiet night, I guess I will post my current reads soon. (Will not be in-depth).
Hopefully the replacements will have caught up on the thread and join in the action asap.
And a totally offtopic note: I realized I've written over 10k words on this so far. Could use all that productivity on studying...
On January 09 2012 11:49 bkrow wrote:What is up town!? So when they say Newbie Mafia <--- that's me! But i will do my best to catch up as much as possible! (Only 30 pages LOL! Time to use that ALL button ) Good lynch on Sheth - i just can't picture the manner bear being scum though :p
On January 09 2012 11:50 bkrow wrote:Lol at the arrow point to mafia - i was meant to be accentuating the "Newbie" part 
Totally offtopic, but I laughed my ass off at this. Nice start!
On January 09 2012 14:44 Paperscraps wrote:Hey Everybody, Glad to be here. I have been "semi" keeping up with the thread, but I will need to read through the filters to get a better read on people. I definitely plan on being more active than my predecessor. I seem to be leaning a bit toward scum on blurry and xeris (kronhjort). I can't stay up too late tonight due to school in the morning. I plan on providing some analysis and reads tomorrow.
Your opinion about Cats?
As for now, my positive reads:
Probulous - Town
Jitsu - Town
Gonzaw - Slightly Town
|
On January 10 2012 06:46 Probulous wrote:How cursed are we? It has been 20 hours since replacement and kronhjort hasn't posted and all that Paperscraps has posted is a couple of welcome lines and Show nested quote +"I seem to be leaning a bit toward scum on blurry and xeris (kronhjort). I can't stay up too late tonight due to school in the morning. I plan on providing some analysis and reads tomorrow." @Ceph, I am still waiting on your reads. @Jitsu I am assuming you are sticking with Cats and Blurry?
Talk about nice timing. Will get into the rest of my reads soon. For once this way around. 
|
EBWOP: Are there any certain persons you want me to concentrate on?
|
Gretorp / Paperscraps = Null
The only thing which I am a bit surprised of is that Paper in his first post considers Xeris / Blurry scummy, but doesn't mention AnxiousHippo or Cats. We'll see soon enough.
Xeris / Kronhjort = Null / Slightly leaning towards scum.
Xeris was pushing quite hard (relative to his level of activeness) for his townyness, and no-lynching. Nothing from Kronhjort yet, so my opinion on this could change relatively easily. Also as Probu pointed out (yeah, go on and call me for ghosting on someone that doesn't have anything new to talk about), Sheth's comments about him aren't making him look any better.
AnxiousHippo / Bkrow = Slightly leaning towards scum
AnxiousHippo, I really don't have much new stuff to offer on him. His early game looks like a newbie town trying to contribute, but closer to the end of D1, it becomes more and more useless.
On January 06 2012 16:31 AnxiousHippo wrote:Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 12:09 Gretorp wrote:
And i will be doing a huge post otnight most likely just got to get caught up since it grew a lot When? Don't think we've forgotten. Xeris doesn't quite look scummy because we have nothing to analyse him on but he does look pretty dodgy, especially with Sheth's post in mind. Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 12:57 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
Well, the Xeris thing is based completely on the fact that I know him really well IRL and we've played mafia a bunch before. He is really bad mafia. Like he'd be lurking and mod killed if he was mafia. He's already been warned, in a not-newbie game it'd be a modkill. At the moment Cephiro looks more like mafia than CatsnHats, partly because I don't know what to make of Cats' "I give up post". He was also trying to play it safe till the pressure came on. Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 01:23 Cephiro wrote:On January 05 2012 01:10 Tunkeg wrote:
What is it that makes you think CookieMaker is slightly town? You have listed alot of anti-town things about him but not one pro-town thing. He had a very good start in my opinion, posting actively and talking about the different possibilities. I also like the fact that even though he is (or at least was) in favour of the no-lynch, he didn't give up on his thoughts just like that, but was sticking up for himself and why he thinks it's a good idea. I do have to admit that his last posts are quite fluffy, which is why I'm only carefully and only slightly leaning towards town on him for now. Jitsu had a few very good points about him though, which I slightly agree with. But for now I will still stick to my opinion about slightly town, until he posts more. He is on the edge of neutral and slightly town to me though. Also, I am finding myself on thinking of Jitsu as slightly town now. His last post was exactly what I wanted to see from him. On the other hand, I am still not sure about you. I think you are going slightly overboard with how much you are asking other's opinions, but not providing as much of your own. You have been suspecting quite a lot of people this early, and to what I see, there are two possibilities. Either you are mafia and trying to confuse people by trying to accuse a bit of everyone, or then you are just playing aggressive town, fishing for reactions for easier reads. I certainly hope you are the latter. But I remain neutral on you for now. He says he sees Jitsu and CM as slightly town and he's neutral on Tunkeg. He also falls back on "being excited" twice Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 02:38 Cephiro wrote:On January 05 2012 02:24 Tunkeg wrote:
@Ceph and Cats
You guys say I have been suspicious to many players allready. Well, then you missread me, I am only suspicious to CM atm. xeris and Gretorp I am not suspicious of as of yet, just saying I will vote for them if they don't step up.
In my post to Blurry I didn't say I think he is suspicious, only that he haven't contributed greatly yet.
Ceph you said you think I have made to many questions posts and to little content posts. Well, to me content is opinions and analyzis of others play, and in my opinion I have allready made more content than you, including your day one analyzis post. I will give you credit for putting it out there, and it might lead to some discussion, but I think your reads are to vague and therefor the value of it isn't the greatest.
In closing I will say that I am not suspicious of you two as of yet, so there will be no missunderstanding. I see, good of you to clarify that. After re-reading your filter a few times, I personally think that you have posted a lot of opinions, but not that much analysis. I do see your point what you're getting at, and I also do understand your opinion about my analysis post. I do have to agree with you they don't tell that much yet, but I am trying to provide others an idea of my opinions at the moment, and raising dicussion to help me clarify my reads. Might also have to do with me still being excited to get this game started. + Show Spoiler +Hopefully they will answer your question posts seriously so we'll get more content thanks to you. I am not suscpicious of you either, but your recent answer enables me to get a better understanding of your playstyle, which I thank you for.
About your question as of Jitsu's post, it seems like he likes to concentrate his play on a few persons, which is very understandable. For me that post is making me lean to slightly-town on him, but I would like to see him take contact to more persons and his opinions about others too. If he isolates himself to only put pressure on these two it can have it's good sides, but at least I want to hear more of his thoughts before I say anything. He hasn't posted very much yet, but I still don't think he's scum. Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 04:41 Cephiro wrote:On January 05 2012 03:58 Liquid`Sheth wrote:Ahhh yea. Gretorp getting busy. I like it. Were going to get some scum. Ok, well, I'm going to analyse some games for a bit, as I have to work. However before I go, I geuss I'll point out one thing. Everyone seems to be accusing everyone. It doesn't help, because we know its just one persons pressure and honestly we assume its fake pressure, because after all its day1 and we don't have any great reads. So, instead of this I recomend we get behind one person and see if they can tell us why they ARE NOT mafia. I was planning on leaning on Cephiro, for his post here : + Show Spoiler +On January 04 2012 10:42 Cephiro wrote:I'll have to say CookieMaker provides a few good points to start with. Even though none of us knows the exact set up, I would have to argue that we as town have a much better starting point. Considering the case that the mafia would have a role blocker, it will most likely be less useful until later game when people are starting to have better reads on each other. If the town has both the medic and detective, it is quite likely that they will be able to do something useful. (Mafia role blocker would have 9 persons to choose from, since he/she would know the 3 mafia.) That leaves a 2/9 = around 22% chance of roleblocking on the first day, since I'm quite sure there will be no roleclaims this early. On the other hand, the medic has a very small chance of blocking the first kill on N1 (1/11 * 8/9 ~ 8% chance), but the detective has a chance of as much as 27% finding scum on N1 if he doesn't die. (Which would be about 24% in total, which is still higher than the chance of mafia roleblocking.) Note: You may notice I'm into maths a lot.... Also, it might even be that the mafia has a roleblocker but the town has no power roles, which renders the mafia roleblocker useless, making the situation even worse for them. Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1.
A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information.Also... Show nested quote +On January 04 2012 10:12 Probulous wrote:
Come on town let the streets flow with red red blood! What a lovely way to start the game... but on the other hand, I doubt even a newbie scum player would slip that early, even though it could be done on purpose to make us think even a newbie wouldn't slip such, but in fact being scum anyway? It comes down to a wall of text that tell us nothing. It just makes it look like hes contributing a lot when in fact he hasn't come up with a new opinion and his others posts are very non-committal. Just like wishy washy, things, and I thought it was just weird. However this morning you posted + Show Spoiler +On January 05 2012 00:16 Cephiro wrote:
Time for a D1 analysis! Obviously I'll leave myself out, but if someone wants to know more about my opinions / ask why I'm in favor of something, please go ahead, discussion is what we need at the moment.
Also, my apologies if I'm wrong with someone's gender, I'll make a mean generalization and expect everyone to be a male until noted otherwise.
Player List:
1.CookieMaker
For now I'm leaning slightly towards town on him, even though he is quite in-favour of the no-lynch possibility. But I think that may be due to the fact that it's his first game, and he may not have read through/followed many mafia games before. So I'm thinking he's rather be safe than sorry, but hopefully he'll realize the amount of information even a possible mislynch will give us, not even mentioning the huge lead we can get if we nail a mafia on D1. His posts could have slightly more actual content, but he's trying so for now he's okay to me.
2.Liquid`Sheth
Hasn't posted anything useful aside from welcoming people and pressuring CatsnHats. Sure, pressuring at this point has to be done, but deciding to pick on one person for no real reason at this point and providing no other content? Hopefully he means well and just tries to make sure CatsnHats plays pro-town regardless of being new, I mean, Sheth does have 2 previous games of TL mafia as a base of experience. But for now, I am reading something between neutral or slightly scum. I dare you to prove me your innocence, so I'll be waiting for your morning post.
3.AnxiousHippo
Doesn't seem to have any idea of what he should be doing, but I guess it's understandable since it's only his second game. I am hoping to hear more from you, since you haven't posted enough content to make any kind of read on you. Neutral.
5.Tunkeg
Good forewarn on not being able to answer at the start of the game. Appareantly was on the winning side in his first game. He seems like an aggressive type of person, wanting to start the accusations and pressure to get some discussion going on. Thinks that D1 lynch is a must, but backs it up with some very good points. Took the first vote playing it relatively safely, voting for a lurker who hasn't posted yet. Clearly wants something to happen, but I am for now unsure if his method will be very successful. Neutral for now, but if you keep the activity up I should be able to get either a slight-town or slight-scum read on you soon.
6.Jitsu
Seems to want to actively participate, and most of his posts so far are convincing people to lynch on D1. Hasn't posted any actual content other than that though, so I will still stand on a neutral read. I am hoping to hear more content from you soon, I need to get more reads.
7.Xeris
All I can say is, no content, not a good sign. Neutral.
8.Gretorp
Same as above, neutral.
9.Gonzaw
Answering people's questions, trying to explain some of the basic stuff that should be understood, looks good to me. I like the way he pushed to know more about how I seem to know about the game, so he seems like he isn't taking anything for granted. Also suggesting pressure voting to get things going. I have a slight town-read here.
10.Blurry
Seems to be in favour of no-lynching, wanting to stay on the safe side. Hasn't talked about anything but different possibilities if a mafia roleblocker exists. Not useful. (Okay, I'll have to admit that my statistics post at start wasn't necessarily very useful either, but I've been at least trying to post other content as well.) Neutral for now, but if you won't be posting more, I would lean on slightly scum.
11.Probulous
Being very active at the start, and the play seems really town-favouring. Constantly asking for opinions and explaining his reasoning. I like his opinion on lynching, definitely wanting to lynch mafia but still keeping in mind the possibility of being careful incase we don't get any reads on D1. Hopefully we will have some scum reads that we can go for so no-lynch won't be necessary. Pressuring the people that should be on according to timezone but haven't posted. I would have to say you are my strongest town-read so far, I want to hear more of your opinions when you're back.
12.CatsnHats
Being a new player, it's understandable that he's a bit confused, but you really need to learn that you CAN'T TRUST anyone but yourself. Whatever you think about the situation or someone's reads, say it, don't just agree or disagree randomly. I'm kind of worried of the chance that you are a townie whom the mafia would be able to talk around easily, but I hope you'll prove me wrong. (about the convincing part.) Or you could be mafia that is pretending to be a super-newbie town on his first game... who knows. But you're neutral so far. Start posting your opinions!
I'm not going to vote yet myself, but I will join the pressure voting in a few hours if Xeris and Gretorp aren't going to turn up. Which has some negatives and actually contribues some, so I'll back off for now. Kinda ironic that you wanted me to post my read today and my read was on you. @Tunkeg we shall see. CatsnHats what do you think about this Gretorp guys first too posts. Good / bad / scummy?!? Okay, I'll admit that my statistical starting post maybe wasn't the best opening post ever, but at least I tried, unlike many others... can't blame me for being excited and trying to contribute! To be honest, I don't understand your claim about me being wishy-washy at the start, when I was clearly trying to push for some points. For example: On January 04 2012 10:42 Cephiro wrote:
Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1.
A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information. On the other hand when I read your posts, I see almost nothing useful. You're trying to pressure CatsnHats, and trying to clarify some acronyms and such on D1. You're not posting any of your reads. And now you asked CatsnHats about his opinion on Gretorp when he already posted about it... you're giving surprisingly much attention to him to start the game with in my opinion. I'm pointing my FoS at you. I'll have my eyes on you Sheth. I'm not going to accuse you of being scum yet, but I suggest that you all watch Sheth's posts carefully. You'll have to try harder than that to convince me. He also says he doesn't think Sheth is mafia but asks everyone else to watch him closely, implying he wants other people to call him out first so he doesn't have to worry about it. His vote for Tea was also just a placeholder even though he said none of his top 3 scumreads is Tea. Show nested quote +On January 06 2012 08:22 Cephiro wrote:
Placeholder vote since I am quite sure I will not have enough time to convince the town on lynching someone else, sorry AKCT. :/
If there are some specific points anyone of you want me to answer, please point them out now.
##Vote A Killer Cuppa Tea Show nested quote +On January 06 2012 08:37 Cephiro wrote:On January 06 2012 08:23 Probulous wrote:
Two questions Ceph
Would you vote for AKCT?
From that post you think Sheth, Cats and myself are scum? Is that right? I don't want to put words in your mouth again so please label the three scum for me.
Thanks for coming out guns blazing. Voted for AKCT. We need to get a lynch today. This will be a short post since I don't think I will have time for a full analysis, but at the moment the top-3 scumreads (in no particular order) for me are:
Liquid`Sheth, CatsnHats, Gretorp.I am fairly sure that one of the lurkers is scum, even though I could be wrong. Gretorp has promised analysis twice, but nothing so far. Even though I do not like Xeris's overly safe play, I find Gretorp more scum than him at the moment. I was thinking about building a bigger case against you, since you seemed to go for me so aggressively, but even if I would like to see more of your reads on others, I think you have a reason to keep them to yourself for now, and you're just trying to pressure the hell out of who you think are scum. So I'm actually leaning town on you. @Jitsu if you look back at where he said Tea you'd see that I talked right before and after. @CatsNHats get your head back in the game if you're town you should be more focused on killing mafia than convincing everyone you're a dead weight. Just keep trying, your last paragraph was decent, try expanding on that.
This is probably his worst post. (In my opinion). First he pushes Gretorp... after everyone else did it already, we don't really need everyone to do that. Especially not trying to make it look like you're the first one doing it.
Then he makes an insanely bad case against me. (Okay, I'll give him credit for trying, but in my opinion most of those points are so poor... I can't believe he didn't find anything more on me since he clearly tried, especially after Probu's case.)
After that, all we see is a promise of bandwagon analysis into disappearance. Not good.
Bkrow has a hilarious start. With the arrow pointing mistake.
He is at least trying to look like he is providing content, but in my opinion he isn't looking very townie so far:
On January 09 2012 12:21 bkrow wrote:Cats what convinces you about Blurry being scum? I am reading through his filter and the scummiest thing i have come across is him advocating a no lynch on day 1 - but he seemed to go back on that idea later on. He also voted for Sheth straight up (from what i can see) and with such little KP it would be hard to see him doing that without some sort of indecision. Sorry if i am rehashing old stuff i am just catching up still; i think we should be looking at: a) people who were hesitant to vote Shethb) those who tried to offer alternate targets but once Sheth came up jumped on the "bandwagon" and c) the lurkers who make me angry
This is probably his best post. Questioning Cats's case, and providing his own point of view where we are likely to find scum. Note the bolded, I will get to it soon.
On January 09 2012 12:49 bkrow wrote:
To be honest, considering those posts i don't see the case against Blurry more convincing than the case against Gretorp (now replaced by Paperscraps) - either Gretorp is very busy or very bad at being scum. Neither of those 2 situations are beneficial for town; but he is the first one that really grabbed my attention as inactive and intentionally dodging questions. He even promised analysis and.. well yeah..
I would love to hear from Paperscraps after he has caught up on the thread
Trying to focus attention on the other lurker, not providing analysis why he thinks Blurry is no more scum than Gretorp. You're allowed to have your own opinion, but please back it up with something.
On January 09 2012 14:10 bkrow wrote:
I can't really speak for my predecessor but i think the fact that he got replaced illustrates his involvement with the game and provides an explanation for his inactivity. As for the dodging questions - well again, if he was inactive enough to get replaced then i doubt he was actively dodging questions - if he was, well then lol he is bad.
I looked through Xeris' filter - all 3 (?) posts? Lurkers are particularly dangerous not only because they add nothing, but they are just so hard to read as there is nothing to go off. Also because this is a mini mafia, a mislynch on a lurker can do some damage.
I say we place FoS on Xeris (his replacement) and at the very least it will give him a chance to explain himself. For now i see Xeris as a more viable target based on Sheth's comments - but then again, to come out in such defence of a particular person when you are scum is basically tying your fates, so this may have been Sheth's attempt to latch onto a townie and at least secure some result if he was lynched.
This slightly looks like trying to make up for the mistakes that Hippo did, to secure his own play further. (The first bolded part.) He talks about Xeris here which other people have already pointed at, but he keeps juggling "it could be or it could not be".
Now he would like to hear more about Paperscraps (Gretorp's replacement), and FoS Xeris (The other lurker that is already under suspicion). He has only provided anything towards his c)-category, but nothing about the people that belonged to his a or b category. (Cats for example.)
My current opinion on scum: AnxiousHippo(bkrow)/Xeris(Kronhjort) is one of the scum, and Cats is the other.
|
On January 10 2012 09:02 Probulous wrote:I'm an idiot. That is twice in one game! 
I was confused at first but do you mean the fact daypost is coming in one hour, not yet?
I think it's very unlikely that you, me and Jitsu would be alive after the night, but we'll see what happens.
I certainly hope I don't die yet just as I got to celebrate the victory of hanging the first scum.
|
Going to check Gonz's filter carefully if I survive. One minute isn't enough.
|
EBWOP: Unfortunately I also think that either Prob or Jitsu is going to die, if that happens, don't give the scum the chance to push me for D3 lynch.
|
Well played Jitsu, thanks for all the contributions you made. I will certainly check into Gonz's filter now.
We will catch the mafia and avenge your death!
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
