EPTNewbie Mini Mafia II - Page 26
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Liquid`Sheth
United States2095 Posts
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Liquid`Sheth
United States2095 Posts
On January 08 2012 13:01 Probulous wrote: Cats, you still aren't standing up for yourself. You are right to point out that everyone seems to have me pegged as town without thought. Why do you have to say I am not a day2 lynch target by any means and that this is not a FOS. Stop undermining yourself. Just ask the question and provide your own analysis. Before I go, heres another post. I posted basically this same thing earlier, letting him out of saying something undermining himself and you got on my case over it. You're doing the same thing right now!!! How you can't see the hypocricy is beyond me. | ||
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Liquid`Sheth
United States2095 Posts
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Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
On January 08 2012 12:44 Liquid`Sheth wrote: Going to point out two of the main problems you have with my posting is my calling out Cats and then Cephiro. You say I ghost your read on him as well. You then talk about me not voting early on AKCT and following you again. I did remove the negative points you have on me in that quote, such as my defence of Xeris and defence of Cats and not completely training my thought on Cephiro early on. However I don't see whats caused you to change your mind so quick? I've been too distracted by all of this pressure on me that I havn't done another full write up on Cephiro. @Probulous what has caused you so suddenly to think Ceph is town? I'm going to do a write up on what I've seen recently, so hopefully you answer is good. Here is is the entire post so you can see what I mean. On January 07 2012 06:00 Probulous wrote: Alright, my Sheth read. I am not going to post a massive text wall, it is 7:30am on a Saturday, give me a little break  These things bothered me. He seems to really want to talk about blue roles, I don't see the value in this and the potential risk. If we have blues, discussing roles can lead to an outing which is bad for all. Despite my constant requests for this to stop, he has kept on about them. Most of his posts are fluff (admittedly discussions with me took up quite a few). He blatant support of Xeris with this as his reasoning That last line is particularly bad. It is clear that online and offline mafia are totally different, Sheth knows this from playing two games yet he is pretty certain that Xeris is town based on his offline play? The only reason you are certain of someone's alignment is when they flip or if you are scum. His case on Cookie amounted to Which was enough to put his scum list as Cephiro pointed out his dropping of the Ceph case until I posted mine. Points in his favour He is active and was the first to call out both Cats and Cephiro. He is happy to respond and get engaged in large discussions. He voted early for AKCT who was already on his list of scum reads. So in short my read is still null  I can justify what he says from both a townie and scum perspective which makes him hard to read. I am still suspicious and will have a reread later in the day when I have more time and am a little more awake  I even said in that post that I still found you suspicious and would take a closer look when I was more awake. Well I did and found scum. That is in my case against you. For one he responded to my case in the best way possible. Sure some of it was OMGUS but he legitimately pointed some of the weaknesses of the case. But more importantly he really went after you. No-one else at that point had really been targeting you. Tunk and Jitsu had asked some awkward questions but only Cephiro went balls to the wall. Since then he has been aggressive with his analysis and focused as well. That is my reason for changing. If you read my filter you can see it pretty clearly. Finally your full write up on Cephiro was this if I recall correctly. On January 05 2012 12:18 Liquid`Sheth wrote: Yea, thats same for me Andre. Ok, heres what I've got. I didn't actually take the time to read through Cephiro's List completely. I simply saw that a few things on it were pointing out scum and he was worried about me in perticular. Those were things I wanted to see and saw them. However after re-reading them I realize that they don't pressure anyone. Hes being so completely passive and neutral. This is a trick that scum use generally. They don't want to commit to anything because they think that as long as there not stand outish in one way or another they won't get lynched. They live for that center world where they don't contribute much, but seem to. Even fairly recently : Its just so bad. He is just following "people providing good reasoning". This may seem like something we should all be doing, and it is. However on night one, if you are going to follow it, you follow it through. Because of this and because my first worry was about Cephiro I'm definetly liking Probulous. I say we lynch Cephiro. The benefits for this are great. We can completely tell about Probulous being town or not (which actually isn't too great, as that means he will probably die, Medic shoould definetly include him in WIFOM if there is a medic though!). And hopefully me as well, as I think hes a good lynch. However if hes town we'll also have a good read on a few other people who are sticking out to him. Perhaps lynching Cephiro will just be who the mafia buss. However I think that its a percentage game. And right now, Cephiro is definetly my highest scum read, ##Vote: Cephiro @CatsNHats -You seem oh so scummy. Whats your take on lynching Cephiro? Would you be willing to join in on this little train we're starting? Anyone else willing to hop on board, don't forget to pack a vote. Which was straight after my case and this On January 06 2012 07:02 Liquid`Sheth wrote: Yea, I went to bed with some good ideas and wanted to think about it before posting. When I woke up and saw the new post I wanted more time to look at it and I wasn't sure my original point was too valid because of his new post. Around this time Probulous made his full post before I could fully look at Cephiro's post. And after reading Prob's post it rang true with what I was thinking earlier and it invalidated a lot of my "well maybe he is just town and not scum after all" points. (The fact that he was being agressive back towards me, and towards others was what made me cautious These were some of the things that made me think he was scum : "Also, it might even be that the mafia has a roleblocker but the town has no power roles, which renders the mafia roleblocker useless, making the situation even worse for them." This post seemed off. Why would it be important that if a roleblocker from mafia isn't that good if we have no town roles. It just seems like something no town would think of. And the way its said just seems like hes trying really hard to insinuate that its "them" and "the mafia". Then : Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1. This also rang bells. Town should never be "provocative", we should pressure. We don't want to create chaos we just want to use logic and pressure people. I geuss thats similar to provocative, but I think there's a difference. And saying that we aim to lynch someone "hopefully scum" just seems so bad. Obviously we want to lynch scum, why would you even say that? Its helpful either way, but clearly we want to lynch scum.. He then changes his opinion on no-lynch seemingly for no reason and says "I'm not entirely convinced on a no-lynch, but I do agree that lynching a townie on D1 is a bad start. I think it comes down to how much information we'll have, if there are any seemingly scumreads I personally think we gain more as town if we try to lynch the scum, since if we hit, we are at a very good advantage." Why would he say hes "not entirely convinced on a no-lynch. Just so many things that I think a mafia would make. Little things, but when added up they say a lot to me. Then he says "Or random accusations to get people to talk." You don't do random accusations, you find reasons and you accuse intelligently. Only mafia want things to be random as far as accusations go because they have a higher percent to not get hit. All of these posts had me really worried when they were added together. I guess I should have brought all of this up earlier, but I thought Prob's post was good enough to get us lynching him. And these are my points after going back and re-thinking about it. So jitsu, theres why I think hes scum. I am a townie, hopefully you'll see from my arguments. As to what I'd say to Cephiro if he says I'm null-scum, "Thats exactly what I'd expect scum to say"  First paragraph doesn't say anything other than my case was good. You were really stretching with the roleblocker thing. You seem to enjoy discussing blue roles, particularly townie ones. Cephiro writes a line about how mafia could have roleblocker with no power roles and that makes him mafia? Why would know town think of that? If nothing else this points the stupidity of discussing possible setups with no information. I stand by my original statement that discussing power roles adds nothing and is detrimental for exactly this reason. It gives scum the opportunity to cast doubt on pointless analysis. Speaking of stretching, your point about him not being "entirely convinced" was acrobatic. He says we would prefer a lynch over a no-lynch in that same paragraph. Cephiro did himself no favours by being placatory on day 1 but this is hardly damning. Especially since you don't paint a picture of how this scum motivated. You acknowledge it is a stretch (little things) but apparently they say a lot to you. Thanks for trying to convince the rest of us. If you have scum in your sights, you push hard to get them lynched. Why would you give up? Especially since there are other strong cases against him. Finally, I happen to agree with Cephiro that being provocative is certainly a townie trait. Responses are what sink mafia. Random accusations are all you have that early in the game. See the first Newbie Mafia for how they can out mafia. You say it gives mafia a higher percentage of not being hit, well that makes no sense. If mafia don't have to respond to anything they can easily move a vote to scummy townie. Much easier than if they have been asked questions, and have to take a stand. In essence your case against Cephiro was based on mine and some serious reaching, which you even acknowledge. But that is enough to vote for him? You didn't mind lynching Cephiro because you know he is town. From my reading it seems you hoped my case would be strong enough to convince people and when Tunk didn't want to budge you moved the vote to AKCT. You knew I was suspicious of him due to my case so of course I would vote for him and that my case (and others) could be used to convince others. I made a mistake there, which I regret. I should have known a miss-lynch was coming with the way that train got going. Unfortunately my major scum-read at the time was busy proving his townieness. That left Cookie and Cats, and I was more certain of Cookie than of Cats. This time I won't be swayed, you will be lynched and if not I will hold the others accountable for their decisions to let you live. | ||
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CatsnHats
United States199 Posts
On January 08 2012 13:22 Liquid`Sheth wrote: I'm staying up till Responsibility ends. (My last game here). So please post while I'm still here Prob! Or Cats! I don't feel comfortable voting for you Sheth. I think Xeris, Gretorp, AnxiousHippo, and Blurry all have had as much scummy behavior as you, just less activity. I think you are getting targeted because you have a higher quantity of posts, making it easier for you to be quoted/analyzed. My target right now would be Blurry or AnxiousHippo, mainly because they are the most likely to respond at this point. Blurry has made 11 posts overall (an amount big enough to be remembered, but not enough to be picked apart like you), 1post yesterday, which is WIFOM filler On January 06 2012 00:53 Blurry wrote: Okay, my last post for the day: Staying on CM/Tea as I am still unsure about Cephiro. Other than that, I'm sorry I couldn't contribute more this first day as I am still new to this and am not sure what to look for in terms of reading players but by going over players posts I am getting a good idea and I'm sure my analysis quality will steadily improve over the course of the game. One thing that strikes me looking back at all this is CM voting for CatsinHats. If CM/Tea is indeed scum then I think this provides evidence towards cats not being scum as I dont think CM would have been that meta especially with the holes in his play he has already shown. This can't be assumed however so I would still be suspicious. and one post today, which was WIFOM filler. On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote: I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things. Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way. My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum. His big analysis post was 1-2 sentences on each player. Not enough content. Thoughts? | ||
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Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
On January 08 2012 13:04 Liquid`Sheth wrote: Before I go, heres another post. I posted basically this same thing earlier, letting him out of saying something undermining himself and you got on my case over it. You're doing the same thing right now!!! How you can't see the hypocricy is beyond me. It is not hypocrisy, I want him to take a stand so we can evaluate his decisions. I didn't tell him I had no reason for saying what I am doing. You did. He clearly thinks he should look into my play, which is something I have been telling people to do. I am not letting him out anything, I am forcing him to make himself heard. He wanted to know how to get some credibility, well here it is. Take a stand, I didn't say that I don't think he is scummy, or anything which undermines my earlier read. I am getting him to make it clear where he stands so others can see what I see. There is nothing hypocritical about my post, I am telling him the same thing I have said since the start. If you want to prove you're town, take a stand, provide evidence and push it hard. You did not do that, you told him grow a spine and then in the very next post said you had no reason to target him. That is undermining your position. That is letting someone go. | ||
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Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
On January 08 2012 13:44 CatsnHats wrote: I don't feel comfortable voting for you Sheth. I think Xeris, Gretorp, AnxiousHippo, and Blurry all have had as much scummy behavior as you, just less activity. I think you are getting targeted because you have a higher quantity of posts, making it easier for you to be quoted/analyzed. My target right now would be Blurry or AnxiousHippo, mainly because they are the most likely to respond at this point. Blurry has made 11 posts overall (an amount big enough to be remembered, but not enough to be picked apart like you), 1post yesterday, which is WIFOM filler and one post today, which was WIFOM filler. His big analysis post was 1-2 sentences on each player. Not enough content. Thoughts? Cats, think of it his way. Is Sheth scum? Forget about the lurkers, they will get replaced or mod-killed and we and deal with them later. This question doesn't involve them. You either think Sheth is scum or you don't, I have presented my case do you agree with it? I am pushing for Sheth's lynch and will continue to do so because of what he has written implicates him as scum. We have a much better chance of lynching scum that have posted because we can make reads. Lynching a lurker becomes taking a shot in the dark which mafia can easily sway to a lurking townie. If you don't believe all mafia are lurking then it makes sense to find the one that isn't. That one is Sheth. Can I get a simple yes or no as to whether you will be voting for Sheth or not? Thanks. | ||
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Liquid`Sheth
United States2095 Posts
You say "In essence your case against Cephiro was based on mine and some serious reaching, which you even acknowledge. But that is enough to vote for him?" I don't acknowledge it was based on serious reaching, only that you helped it out. Why do you ask "But that is enough to vote for him?" because you voted for him as well. Only now are you so cleanly letting him off the hook. Also you say: You didn't mind lynching Cephiro because you know he is town. From my reading it seems you hoped my case would be strong enough to convince people and when Tunk didn't want to budge you moved the vote to AKCT. You knew I was suspicious of him due to my case so of course I would vote for him and that my case (and others) could be used to convince others. I made a mistake there, which I regret. I should have known a miss-lynch was coming with the way that train got going. Unfortunately my major scum-read at the time was busy proving his townieness. That left Cookie and Cats, and I was more certain of Cookie than of Cats. You say that I don't mind lynching Cephiro becase you know he is town. And that he has "proven his townieness". This DIRECTLY goes against what you have said earlier. NOT the fact that you thought he was scum, but your saying that you are SURE that if I was mafia, I woudln't try and throw accusation onto another mafia. We discussed this day one and you were on the other side of this argument. Just because I think hes mafia, my flipping town or mafia woudln't prove anything one way or the other, WERENT YOU the one who points this out. AND NOW your going the other way with it. You then say that you should have known a miss-lynch was coming by how the train was going. I don't understand why you are complaining about this so much now. Our other option at the time (with so many people being away at lynch time) was Cephiro. And with Tunk having left, I was worried about a no-lynch, as were you. This is fluff and just distracting AND giving yourself a loop hole with : This time I won't be swayed, you will be lynched and if not I will hold the others accountable for their decisions to let you live. This is the sort of thing you'd post if you were mafia. Giving yourself an excuse to either A : Cause a no-lynch, or B : Lynch me no matter what happens with the rest of the day. You can just say, well I said I was lynching Sheth at the start and not move your vote. I'm definetly filtering you again when I wake up. Your last 5 or so posts are so different from the Probulous I thought I knew. | ||
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Liquid`Sheth
United States2095 Posts
On January 08 2012 13:46 Probulous wrote: It is not hypocrisy, I want him to take a stand so we can evaluate his decisions. I didn't tell him I had no reason for saying what I am doing. You did. He clearly thinks he should look into my play, which is something I have been telling people to do. I am not letting him out anything, I am forcing him to make himself heard. He wanted to know how to get some credibility, well here it is. Take a stand, I didn't say that I don't think he is scummy, or anything which undermines my earlier read. I am getting him to make it clear where he stands so others can see what I see. There is nothing hypocritical about my post, I am telling him the same thing I have said since the start. If you want to prove you're town, take a stand, provide evidence and push it hard. You did not do that, you told him grow a spine and then in the very next post said you had no reason to target him. That is undermining your position. That is letting someone go. I told him to "Provide his reasoning on Gretorp" You told him to "Provide his reasoning on Sheth" I then keep pressuring him letting him know that I'm not letting him out with this post @CatsNHats -You seem oh so scummy. Whats your take on lynching Cephiro? Would you be willing to join in on this little train we're starting? I realize that I undermined my post, but I went right back into it. You've done the same thing by saying that he should "stop undermining yourself" in effect showing you believe in him. | ||
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Liquid`Sheth
United States2095 Posts
You should answer this one way or the other. Please don't just say "because Probulous says so" though. Find your own reasons for lynching me, and just please check my answer for it, if I've answered whatever problem you may have with me. We should be looking at others and I really wish I had the energy to write up a huge post tonight on everyone. Responsibility just ended, G'nite guys, cya in the morning. | ||
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Blurry
Switzerland125 Posts
On January 08 2012 10:21 Probulous wrote: Terrible post, Gonz is right this tells us nothing at all. However you at least posted your thoughts on Sheth (Cats I'm looking at you). So to make it easy Blurry, would you vote to lynch Sheth? If not why not? Yes I would, and will. #Vote: Liquid'Sheth As to gonzaw's statement of me simply regurgitating information. For the most part that has been true but I've been going by my gut, which is not something you can post when convincing other people to take your side. I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start but don't have the analysis skills to back it up (I know that will read as scummy but bear with me) and write an informed post as to why. If I don't have the evidence to back up my feelings then there is no point in posting it. | ||
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Blurry
Switzerland125 Posts
##Vote: Liquid'Sheth Wrong format. If he flips something like blue or green however I think we should seriously look into Probulous. | ||
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Jitsu
United States929 Posts
On January 08 2012 11:58 CatsnHats wrote: @Prob yeah I do think they are (Blurry too) better scum targets than Sheth. I think we are letting the terrible activity level of half this town make us point the finger at each other. @Sheth you're exactly right. I'm ghosting on Prob's analysis of you. Gonzaw ghosted on it too and has already put a placeholder vote on you. I REALLY don't like that. He says that your words in your defense could have an effect on changing his mind, but that he won't be around to see it. WHAT IS THAT? This is a really important time in this game. We really need a lynch on mafia. That doesn't sit well with me. @Everyone The phrase I bolded is really interesting to me. It seems like the town (including myself) has followed Probulous without much question. He has posted so much many long posts so often that we have written him off as town without thought and reanalysis. Do you think that Probulous is getting by without enough criticism? He's not a D2 lynch target by any means, but do you think that is true? This is NOT FOS, I'm just asking a question. Why would you bring this up? Go post you're analysis of Probulous instead of trying to create suspicion. If you think it's a bad choice, read his filter, and come back and post why. There is absolutely no reason to post this publicly as town, I feel. Also, you are so unbelievably wishy-washy on Sheth. First you say that Probu's case, as well as my post about Sheth, casts a "Dark Cloud" over him. Than you say how you aren't comfortable with lynching him. Who do *YOU* want to Lynch, than, and Why? On January 08 2012 22:40 Blurry wrote: As to gonzaw's statement of me simply regurgitating information. For the most part that has been true but I've been going by my gut, which is not something you can post when convincing other people to take your side. I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start but don't have the analysis skills to back it up (I know that will read as scummy but bear with me) and write an informed post as to why. If I don't have the evidence to back up my feelings then there is no point in posting it. I'm not going to bear with you. This is, yet again, more bandwagon that we can't have right now - not to mention that you're not playing transparent at all. WHY do you want to kill Sheth. Saying you have a gut feeling is garbage - something is giving you that feeling. If you don't have the evidence to back up you're feelings, you shouldn't be voting in the first place. | ||
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CatsnHats
United States199 Posts
On January 08 2012 13:44 CatsnHats wrote: I don't feel comfortable voting for you Sheth. I think Xeris, Gretorp, AnxiousHippo, and Blurry all have had as much scummy behavior as you, just less activity. I think you are getting targeted because you have a higher quantity of posts, making it easier for you to be quoted/analyzed. My target right now would be Blurry or AnxiousHippo, mainly because they are the most likely to respond at this point. Blurry has made 11 posts overall (an amount big enough to be remembered, but not enough to be picked apart like you), 1post yesterday, which is WIFOM filler and one post today, which was WIFOM filler. His big analysis post was 1-2 sentences on each player. Not enough content. Thoughts? | ||
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Jitsu
United States929 Posts
Let me say this - voting for a lurker in sub-optimal at this point. If we were going to do it at all, we should have done it day one, but we can't just decide to vote for a lurker. Which do we choose? Why? What if he flips town and we waste another day of lynching? Do we try at another lurker? No. It's already widely known that lurkers break games, but we can't do anything about it at this point. There isn't enough information to press on Gretorp/Xeris because they probably won't respond to pressure anyway, and that tells us nothing. Town has only one KP with the lynch, and wasting that to kill a lurker (which is a roll of the dice as it is) is a waste. As it is, Hippo is still playing pretty anti-town. Blatantly disregards what he posts previously (still waiting for that analysis post, bro) and we essentially have 3-4 people in the town that aren't doing anything. | ||
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Liquid`Sheth
United States2095 Posts
Starts off with pressuring CookieMaker + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 07:58 AnxiousHippo wrote: This is one of the worst posts so far. Cookiemaker points out that Probulous leaves right after making accusations, and later says that he's about to go to sleep too. He also talks vaguely about how people are trusting eachother but so far it's only been cephiro and catsnhats, there's barely any trust from everyone else. He then uses a fancy metaphor which always annoys me, like they're trying to sound better. Then he posts some more useless metaphorical stuff saying he wants people to be a bit more active. and then a poem. cookiemaker clarify what players seem to be trusting eachother sheth tell us what posts are bothering you Also, where did blurry go? Not confident enough on his read on cookiemaker and puts a placeholder vote on Xeris. Then instead of reverting back to his own case on CM, he states he hasn't had enough time to read others cases on CM (A K C T) and votes on him to avoid a no-lynch. He then posts a nice argument against Cephiro : + Show Spoiler + On January 06 2012 16:31 AnxiousHippo wrote: When? Don't think we've forgotten. Xeris doesn't quite look scummy because we have nothing to analyse him on but he does look pretty dodgy, especially with Sheth's post in mind. He's already been warned, in a not-newbie game it'd be a modkill. At the moment Cephiro looks more like mafia than CatsnHats, partly because I don't know what to make of Cats' "I give up post". He was also trying to play it safe till the pressure came on. He says he sees Jitsu and CM as slightly town and he's neutral on Tunkeg. He also falls back on "being excited" twice He also says he doesn't think Sheth is mafia but asks everyone else to watch him closely, implying he wants other people to call him out first so he doesn't have to worry about it. His vote for Tea was also just a placeholder even though he said none of his top 3 scumreads is Tea. @Jitsu if you look back at where he said Tea you'd see that I talked right before and after. @CatsNHats get your head back in the game if you're town you should be more focused on killing mafia than convincing everyone you're a dead weight. Just keep trying, your last paragraph was decent, try expanding on that. Then says hes working on "bandwagon analysis" which he has yet to post. Null read. 2. Cephiro There have already been a lot of posts talking about him. We've went over everything except his defense from Prob's attack. So I'll go over that a little bit. He constantly points out that Prob's early posts weren't that good. While there were some points that were fluff from Probulous at the start, he also had some of the best early posts if I remember correctly. The first two pages besides that seem like a pretty good defense. The last page I think is a bit worse though. Its here : + Show Spoiler + On January 06 2012 08:16 Cephiro wrote: Here you totally disregard my post earlier about how I answered Jitsu's question, not blaming him. Did you do that on purpose? Are you kidding me? Look at your own posts. I am certainly not following anyone in this game, but if someone notices a very valid point that I don't, which I agree with, why shouldn't I change my opinion? It would be idiotic to play this game by your first-post-reads about everyone. This game is constantly changing, and you need to understand that. Also, you are accusing ME of following, when what you did is dropped the case against me altogether, and jumped on the bandwagon right after Probulous has posted his analysis. Are you sure you aren't talking about yourself? Trying to make yourself look innocent after going full speed with the Cephiro-train? That is such an outright lie. You are being so eager on lynching me and don't seem to be considering anything else to the slightest, and you say that would provide no information if I flipped town? For me, that would certainly look like a mafia player wanting to get an active town player out asap. Is it just me or are you contradicting yourself when talking about my possible flip? You're saying it wouldn't tell us anything and then you are saying it will cause the other side to look like mafia.... Just... what? IF your analysis is good. What if you're making a huge mistake? You are claiming that if I flip town, I was a very scummy town, only based on your fine analysis. You're just keeping trying to convince people about how you are not mafia or how they can't tell if you're mafia or not if I flip town. Goddamnit, stand up for yourself and admit you are certainly not looking too good when I would flip green in a lynch. "In your land" Well, this isn't your land, and neither is your analysis the only book of law we go by with. I'm still concerned by the fact that you aren't sharing any of your reads except the ones you claim to be scum. At the start you discredit my statistics post, but a bit later on your start talking about power roles yourself? If you find a mafia you should come out in the open and tell it? Sheesh, could you be any more obvious mafia trying to fish out the players with power roles? Jumping on a bandwagon to save yourself scum? Did Gretorp ever give you that long post? Moar bandwagon, you are just blindly convinced by everything Probulous said trying to hide and save your own scummy ass. Still no posts after this, wants a no-lynch (Free kills for mafia anyone?), but at least he isn't jumping on bandwagons blindly unlike some others. I have been true to my first post statement the whole game, we NEED to lynch someone on day 1. "I'm not entirely convinced on a no-lynch, but I do agree that lynching a townie on D1 is a bad start. I think it comes down to how much information we'll have, if there are any seemingly scumreads I personally think we gain more as town if we try to lynch the scum, since if we hit, we are at a very good advantage." If you mean that, it was in response to CookieMaker's posts, since he was actively pushing for no-lynch at start. That I am not convinced on a no-lynch equals to I am not in favour of it. Again, not continuing your pressure, but letting someone do the dirty work for you. What on earth are you doing Sheth, at first you tell everyone that they should not trust you or anyone else, but think for themselves, and now you're bandwagoning hardcore. Considering your wall-of-text, you should know that it's not exactly a fast thing to compose a defense against all your accusations, especially if I want it to be in a readable format. What did you do yourself during the first 24 hours? Stick around for the start, come back after everyone else has provided enough content so you can make your analysis. You are still trying to discredit the whole post because I answered gonz's question about my experience in Mafia, trying to claim it's just fluff. Answering other players' questions is not fluff. If you didn't notice, "What I want to do today is covered in my post you already quoted." Which you seem to totally ignore. Reading through last page now and answering any possible posts that have come up in the meanwhile. He takes me and Probulous' argument about what a flip tells us and seemingly just takes small parts and talks against them. Liquid`Sheth wrote: And as for your analysis, well I'm showing here why your analysis that his flip won't tell us anything. In honesty if he flips town, it makes you look a lot more like mafia. And if he flips Mafia it makes you look a lot more like town. For those reasons below. If hes town I'm under the same thing and maybe were mafia buddies starting a train on a poor little townie. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Is it just me or are you contradicting yourself when talking about my possible flip? You're saying it wouldn't tell us anything and then you are saying it will cause the other side to look like mafia.... Just... what? There was no condradiction here. I was simply answering Probulous' post and talking about every possible variation. Then this : + Show Spoiler + Liquid`Sheth wrote: Ok, because we have two good reads on scum CatsNHats and Cephiro, I'd like to talk about something else until they come back. There is a chance there is a detective. There is a chance there is a medic. If you are the detective, you should NOT choose the person who you think will die during the night. You should pick someone who you'd like to know about and isn't likely to be killed soon, and who would really help town to know about. If you are the medic, you should choose the few people who you think mafia might want dead on this night and WIFOM in between them. However this night you have an advantage, and you might for future nights as well. Mafia isn't sure you exist. The best % they have is that if they have a roleblocker, there's a 50% chance you exist. Because of this, I'd recommend if you exist simply use your ability on who you think is the most townie. Also, if you've found one mafia you should come out in the open and tell us about it. There are other situations where either medic or detective should come out, such as if you know 3 confirmed town and were nearing LYLO. Use your best judgement on those situations. Does everyone agree that if you find a mafia the detective should come out with them? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- At the start you discredit my statistics post, but a bit later on your start talking about power roles yourself? If you find a mafia you should come out in the open and tell it? Sheesh, could you be any more obvious mafia trying to fish out the players with power roles? I'm asking when is wise for blue roles to come out. As this is a newb game and it STILL hasn't been covered much I think its very valid. Your statistics just told us %'s, but nothing on when they should come out and help town. You take something that is pro-townie and call it "obvious mafia trying to fish out the players with power roles". Thats not something a townie would do. He then calls me out for "bandwagoning" himself + Show Spoiler + Liquid`Sheth wrote: I guess I should have brought all of this up earlier, but I thought Prob's post was good enough to get us lynching him. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Again, not continuing your pressure, but letting someone do the dirty work for you. What on earth are you doing Sheth, at first you tell everyone that they should not trust you or anyone else, but think for themselves, and now you're bandwagoning hardcore. And his very next post is this gem : On January 06 2012 08:22 Cephiro wrote: Placeholder vote since I am quite sure I will not have enough time to convince the town on lynching someone else, sorry AKCT. :/ If there are some specific points anyone of you want me to answer, please point them out now. ##Vote A Killer Cuppa Tea His next post is : + Show Spoiler + On January 06 2012 08:44 Cephiro wrote: If I am not mistaken: A Killer Cuppa Tea (9): Gonzaw, Tunkeg, Blurry, Probulous, Cephiro, CatsnHats, Liquid`Sheth, Jitsu, AnxiousHippo Should be relatively safe if everyone sticks to their votes, since the current vote would need 3 members to drop off to force a no-lynch (if none of the inactives post their votes.) And I think it would be quite a dumb move from mafia to pull all three members to force a no-lynch on the first day, so I doubt that is going to happen. Where he tells the mafia what they shoudln't do. Saying its a dumb move for mafia to move three members to force a no-lynch. Its not a huge deal, but in the few games i've played, I find that mafia talk in this style. A townie wouldn't even say something like this, they'd hope mafia was in fact dumb enough to move all three members to force a no-lynch. So, based on this and the earlier posts my read on him is :Mafia 3. Xeris -- Inactive lurker. He'll either get Modkilled or Replaced. 4. Gretorp -- Inactive lurker. He'll either get Modkilled or Replaced. Hard to know anything about 3/4. 5. Jitsu -- Initially for pressuring Cookiemaker. Tries to get Anxioushippo to post more actively instead of lurking. Keeps his pressure on both players. Puts his read on players when asked. Leaning town on me, and town on Xeris back a while. (Which shows he agrees that real life experience can be helpful) One of the first, if not the first to actually vote on CatsnHats. Made a slight logical mistake. He assumes that if a DT comes out then the medic has found their core role. (He kind of assumes there is a medic, which isn't for sure if theres a DT, however he would assume this if he was mafia and knew there was a roleblocker. However this seems kind of farfetched as no roleblock occured day one). However, wow. After reading his filter I can really see where I've been playing really badly towards him. My posts talking with you about cats were pretty blinded by my recent post about him trying to suicide lynch himself. After reading through your filter I can see a lot of points where Cats is playing really bad / scummy. He posted out of his self-lynching pity into a guy who is going after others. And your initial posts on him switching between bandwags and so on are actually quite good. After looking in depth on your filter I'm going to definetly re-read Cats a few times to see if I do still think he is a complete newb, or a complete scum newb. I'm also pretty sure that once I say this post Cats is all of a sudden going to want to lynch me, but I'm ok with that. As of re-reading your filter jitsu I think both : Jitsu is a townie read, my best so far on this filter. AND I need to re-read cats, which is lucky as hes still on my list to do! 6. Catsnhats -- Starts off by saying he is + Show Spoiler + On January 03 2012 15:00 CatsnHats wrote: /in I've never played before but I saw Sheth was playing so I figured I had to give it a try!!! And I will admit I find it hard to lynch people who start with this, as I feel bad slightly. I know I need to ignore that, but still its tough for me to go all out for people who are playing because of me. I'm going to do my best to ignroe this and post a purely logical analysis. Keep in mind Jitsu's filter as well (as it covers a lot of good things on Cats!). This post : + Show Spoiler + On January 06 2012 08:25 CatsnHats wrote: @Cephiro I was about to ask you to change your vote to Tea, but you did it before I could finish. Tea/CM was on my scum list the whole time (check my filter), so I'm fine with lynching him instead of a no-lynch D1. ##vote: A Killer Cuppa Tea Sticks out for me. Hes only fine with lynchimg him because "he was on my scum list the whole time!" It seems to me like hes trying very hard to show that the reason he is ok with voting for him is because hes been after him the whole time. Howver Cats up until then hadn't really posted any hard information on anyone, he has pretty much accused everyone. Probulous, myself, Jitsu, Cookie this list goes on of people he has accused. And his logic for switching seems just like "well you can't blame me for this, I can't get lynched becuase of this!". He also posts that I'm his "best read" on scum, or something very similiar, then after my defense he isn't ok with lynching me. Just flip flopping again, and he does explain why though. Saying his post about how he feels that all of us are attacking each other too much and that we need to be focusing on the lurkers more. Interesting.. We do need to hear more from Blurry / Xeris / Gretorp / Hippo, I agree. However until they post and what not, this is our best bet, to figure out whats going on out of the active players. Lynching a lurker is just about the worst thing we can do. I realize you didn't say to lynch a lurker, but thats kind of what you were hinting at I think. So, again, because of his post about self-lynching being so crazy from a mafia point of view, I'm at a Null-scum read on him at the moment. Going to split this up into two posts, so its not too long of a single post. | ||
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Jitsu
United States929 Posts
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Liquid`Sheth
United States2095 Posts
7. Probulous -- Townie at the start. Sooo townie at the start. Has recently started making a few logical mistakes. (Both against myself and Cephiro). Implying that Cephiro is a confirmed townie has me looking at you so much right now, but as of now my brain can't make sense of you. Null 8. Blurry -- Havn't filtered you in depth yet, but can get into basics. This post + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 08:28 Blurry wrote: About me being inactive: Sorry,I've been out all day since I'm on vacation in Montreal, and while it says I'm from Switzerland I recently moved to USA (EST) and have neglected to change my profile because I'm a little bit homesick+lazy. Anyways: back to the game, 1: Cookiemaker AnxiousHippo raised a very good point about Cookiemakers most recent post in his stating that trust has been developing amongst certain townies without providing examples. There was no reason for him to say this other than to try and fluff up his posts. Right now he seems scummy to me. 2: Sheth Theres one post by him that caught my attention: This for me could mean one of two things: A. A subtle claim to not being scum based on the logic that Jitsu would know immediately. Or B. I will be able to tell whether or not Jitsu is or is not scum. Other than this he has been aggressive in terms of trying to get people on the defensive (CatsnHats) which I like as holes will show in peoples stories. Right now I'm feeling like he would be town rather than scum but I think time will tell. 3: AnxiousHippo Cites his inexperience as a way out of having to provide much analysis but also hasn't said anything too scummy. I'm feeling neutral. 4: Cephiro Provided a lot of good points and has contributed a good deal to the discussion. I don't think think Mafia would be leading the discussion like he has been, especially at this level. Definitely leaning towards town on him. 5: Tunkeg Tries to get everybody to contribute which I like. Is very clear in his stance which is another good thing. Leaning towards town on him. 6: Jitsu I'm getting a town vibe from him as well as he asked for someones opinion on himself. This could however be a clever mafia play to try and discover where the holes in his play are. Leaning towards town as he has been pressuring people to contribute. Just shows that you havn't put much time into the game at this point. You proceed to say something here + Show Spoiler + On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote: I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things. Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way. My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum. You assume that mafia targeted Tunkeg for a completely different reason then I believe. You believe its because of his reads on people such as myself / gonzaw and cephiro. You feel like thats why it was him instead of Probulous. I think its just because up to this point Probulous was the most "town" feeling and mafia was worried there was a medic involved. Then you post another bad post here + Show Spoiler + On January 08 2012 22:40 Blurry wrote: Yes I would, and will. #Vote: Liquid'Sheth As to gonzaw's statement of me simply regurgitating information. For the most part that has been true but I've been going by my gut, which is not something you can post when convincing other people to take your side. I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start but don't have the analysis skills to back it up (I know that will read as scummy but bear with me) and write an informed post as to why. If I don't have the evidence to back up my feelings then there is no point in posting it. Whats up with this? Can you explain what your "gut" is and what its saying. As I think someone already brought up (Jitsu?) is that if you can't explain it in reasoning then its probably not a good reason. You then say "If I don't have evidence to back up my feelings there is no point in posting it". Regarding evidence against me. So you don't have any evidence and just a gut feeling on me and your willing to vote so quickly on this. Just this here should have everyone worried. Aren't you finding it suspicious that these lurkers are coming out of no where and willing to just throw their votes onto me because of a gut feeling? Blurry :From what I can see, Leaning Mafia strongly. 9. Gonzaw -- I don't have time to re-read all of your posts. I will do you and Probulous together hopefuly tonight before the end of the day and if I don't, well I'm sure others will. Based on just what I've seen of your posting you seemed like you were posting a lot of fluf and not really taking too many sides. Then you post a "Placeholder" vote on me even though your not convinced. You don't even wait on me to argue my side at all. You and Blurry seem to both be doing this to me. I'm not sure if this is a coincidence, that you both just have to go and blindly will kill me off, but its so bad. Why are you voting for me if you aren't convinced I'm scum. Just from what I've seen I'll say Town-Scum, but I really need to re-filter you more indepth, so this is it for now. Everyone putting your votes on me, please look into Cephiro, Blurry and Cats/Gonzaw . Those are my four scummiest reads, without knowing more about Xeris/Gretorp. | ||
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Jitsu
United States929 Posts
##Vote: CatsnHats For the record, if the lurkers force a no lynch because they can't get on to post, i'll be pretty pissed off. I believe we need six to lynch, and we have had, what, 5 people post in the past 24 hours? Sigh. I implore everyone to think logically and read filter/analysis and THINK FOR YOURSELF. I have a scum read on Cats. It doesn't mean everyone does. | ||
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CatsnHats
United States199 Posts
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