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I admire your courage Cats, when Sheth flips mafia you are going to look really really bad. Not because you are pointing out mistakes in Cephiro's case (you are correct in that instance) but because you are pointing out small issues which don't address the whole argument. Ceph's point is simple, if your number one scum read is Ceph you nail him to the wall. Nothing Sheth provided looks like that, it is all soft pressure. This allows him to back off when a decent response is received without looking stupid.
You don't care about being in the spotlight if you are town. Look at my case, I pushed Ceph's case so hard that I look like an idiot for changing my position, but I don't care because he was my best read. Mafia however love to cast suspicion around particularly if it can lead to a miss-lynch of someone who has been posting a lot. But of course they don't want to create the case and take the responsibility for the miss-lynch, much better to follow on from someone else's analysis.
The motivation behind how the cases are presented clearly shows the difference between mafia and town. Sheth knows Ceph is town, so he has to choose between Ceph and other townies, so he soft pressures him on some obvious fluff. Then when my case comes up, he jumps on the wagon like it is nobody's business. If he was town he would have done that before my case was presented. Even afterwards he didn't attempt to convince others to vote for Ceph. he has to be asked to present his case. As town you want to prove your target is scum. When it appeared that AKCT was more likely to be lynched he switched courses. He knew I would vote for AKCT because I had presented my case already and he knew AKCT was town, so why not? He gets to lynch a townie either way.
I admit I should have pushed harder at that point. i should have questioned Sheth about his motivations, I let him go. Ceph response had me all confused and it let Sheth determine the first lynch, well not today. Today Sheth hangs.
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United States2095 Posts
When Sheth flips town hes going to look really really good. - -
If I cared about being in the spotlight I woudln't have even started this thing against Ceph and don't pretend you were the FIRST to notice him. You also switched votes before me on to AKCT if I recall correctly. Quit just blatantly lieing about that too. I suggested a No-lynch was worse then a lynch and you agreed. This was solid reasoning, quit taking good reasoning and saying it wasn't and it makes me scum.
And trust me, I'm trying my best to Prove that Ceph is scum. You earlier posted how you didn't notice when everyone just jumped onto A Killer Cuppa Tea that you should have stopped the train on him and known he wasn't scum. How do you not notice it happening to me now? Suspiciously Hippo or some one like Cats/Jitsu will change there vote on me at the end and voila everyone just kills off the townie and no one is at fault.
I hate that Blurry already put his vote on me for "gut" feeling. And Gonzaw too basically. I'm just getting bandwagoned and its not the right thing to do. I've refuted all of your points or admited when I made a mistake. I'm NOT mafia.
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On January 09 2012 08:19 Liquid`Sheth wrote:Show nested quote +On January 09 2012 07:33 Probulous wrote:
I am not scared of Cats if he is mafia. He is so scummy now that he little to no influence on the town. He is not a threat (sorry Cats but that is plainly true). Sheth, clearly has influence.
He has played this game very well but not well enough. I would implore you that if you let him live tonight, he can take what we have written and change his game to suit. Cats play does not look like someone who has a team behind them. It is wishy-wasy and bandwagonny as anything, but it isn't dangerous. Hell he doesn't even know who he is voting for. No Cats, is not a problem.
If he is mafia, he is a mafia with no town cred. In all likelihood he will get lynched either today or tomorrow but he will never be listened to. He has had too many chances. Sheth however is dangerous. He has shown himself capable enough to sow doubt, let him live and he will do more.
Sheth is trying to push the lynch onto someone easy, someone who has not played this game well. I am willing to put my credibility on the line that Sheth is scum. Last lynch, I capitulated instead of forcing my case. I was certain that Cookie was scum but even more so of Cephiro. Then when Ceph showed how he can actually play I realised my mistake, I accepted Cookie's lynch because he was already on my list, but unfortunately it allowed others to sheep. There was no other lynch being pushed (a sure sign of a miss-lynch coming).
Well today we don't have that problem, everyone has a simple choice. Who is the better lynch, Sheth or Cats?
Clearly Sheth is more dangerous, and Cats play looks similar to Cookie's, except that he has tried to defend himself (terribly but the effort is there). If you accept that a mafia Sheth is more dangerous than a mafia Cats, the question is quite simple, is Sheth scum?
So far we have the following votes:
Sheth (4) (Probulous, Gonzaw, Blurry the blatant sheep, Cephiro)
Cats (2) (Jitsu, Sheth)
We are waiting the following to vote
Cats
AnxiousHippo
Xeris
Gretorp
Come on guys, don't do this last minute. Take a stand and lynch Sheth This post is so bad again. I get your worried about me being "dangerous" and all. But I don't see how I am. Its all based on analysis and now your not even going to use your logic, your just calling me dangerous and trying to get people scared of me. You even in this post call Cats "So scummy now". If you think hes so scummy you just want me dead because I'm dangerous to you and not following along with you. If it comes down to it at the end, would you move your vote to Cats to stop a no-lynch Prob ?
Are you seriously suggesting that you are not more dangerous than Cats? Cats has zero town cred, you had plenty and the fact that Jitsu still hasn't moved his vote suggest the same. You have pushed arguments and swayed town. It was you who convinced me to change my vote after which remarkably, AKCT was lynched within half an hour. I am taking responsibility for my vote, I have explained it. In this particular instance I look as guilty as you, but I had my reasons. Like I said Ceph's respons confused the hell out of me, but you, your only reason for not lynching Ceph was to avoid a no-lynch. You still thought (and do) think he is scum but you didn't even try and convince others. You didn't even try and avoid AKCT lynch, why? Why, if Cephiro is your number one scum read do you just give up when two people vote in another direction?
I had a reason to change, I started to think Cephiro was not mafia. You still had him as your number one mafia pick and yet you suggested we switch. Given how many votes rolled in after mine, it would have been possible to lynch Ceph. But no, it was easier to lynch AKCT and then go into day 2 hoping Ceph was still looking scummy. That way you could convince us to lynch him Day 2. This had the added benefit that you didn't have to post your "nail him to the wall" read until much later.
Sorry Sheth but you had no real reason to give up your case on Ceph so easily. That was damning in my eyes.
When you're away for a while PLEASE READ THE THREAD. WTH!? JUST BUSSING ME FOR NO REASON. YOUR SO MAFIA.
You do realise the only way that Ceph could be bussing you is if your both mafia? 
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*you're
Fuck me I hate it when people do that, and I just did 
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On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote:
I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things.
Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way.
My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum.
I am yet not sure what to think of you, but at least you are right in one thing whether you are a townie, or mafia trying to gain town-cred.
On January 07 2012 21:11 Probulous wrote:
The only issue I had post his defense was his vote reason (a placeholder vote). He could have voted for one of his scum-reads but he chose to follow the crowd. This keeps him on my watch list.
As for Sheth, I am almost certain he is scum. I have read and re-read the thread over and over and there are some things I cannot reconcile. His insistent early support for Xeris over Gretorp being the first that springs to mind. I am putting together my case on him but want people to take a good look and tell me why he isn't mafia.
Full case coming soonish!
I'll admit I maybe should have done that, but I didn't want to give the mafia a chance to no-lynch, nor give someone the impression that I was trying to jack the vote towards a no-lynch (pro-mafia play). But today, we lynch scum. Because we're going to lynch Sheth.
Once I read the bolded, I knew we were going in the right direction today. Finally more people would realize the killer that hided behind the manner.
And once I saw Probu's case of the D2 on Sheth, especially considering he is probably the strongest town read for many. (Which no-one should take for granted!), I got the feeling that today is the day the first scum falls.
On January 08 2012 10:31 gonzaw wrote:
??
I had a null read on him until you posted your case, in which case I now have a scum read on him.
You posted your case on him after you posed that question, so my answer was about what I thought of him at that point in time.
I don't get how that could be misinterpreted.
And yes, Sheth hasn't really been accused until now, his response can make us change our minds or make us more assured if he's scum. And I think we can notice if he's trying to "cast doubt" on what you've written.
However I won't be around to see it.
I'm going out now, and tomorrow as soon as I wake up I'll be going out of town for like 1-2 days, so I won't be around until that time.
I hope I get back before it's too late on Day 3 though.
So fuck Sheth, I was waiting for his response, but I need to make a placeholder vote, and the case against him is the best we have at the moment IMO, considering Blurry is ignoring me and Xeris just disappeared off the face of the Earth.
##Vote: Liquid`Sheth
This is a very weird post for me. You have been trying so hard to provide content and analysis yourself earlier, but now you went from a null read to scum read just because of Probu's post? I admit that Probu posts good and convincing cases, but please people, think for yourselves too! If he's the one controlling the game with his analysis with everyone just jumping on the bandwagon, in the case he is mafia we're fucked. I am not saying he is, I got a town-read on him myself at the moment, but don't take it for granted!
Anyway, this post made me more curious, I will have to read through gonzaw's filter again soon.
Liquid`Sheth wrote:
You keep him in your scum list, but you don't keep pressuring him. You just act meaner to a guy who is acting newb. This is the sort of non-stop pressure that almost caused him to try and "lynch" himself. I still don't think Cats is mafia based on his posts and what not. However I obviously want to keep pressure on him. Thats what I've been saying this whole time, but now I'm stuck responding to these posts.
From your response to Probu's analysis about you.
We're not acting extra-mean to anyone. Could you provide some back-up for your claims of Cats being townie? All you say is the bolded, which is basically nothing. His posts and what not? But you obviously want to keep pressure on him, when you just said that sort of non-stop pressure almost made a townie suicide? Contradictory. Protection of scumbuddy, failed.
Liquid`Sheth wrote:
This is horrible logic. Your logic has just been way off recently. Xeris' post just seemed townie at the time. Gretorps did as well, and I've explained about Xeris too much. And if you'd known Xeris in RL you'd understand. I really wish Gretorp would come on and explain this sometime, but sense hes apparently always afk your just bringing up a point I can't verify. I don't like how your taking something that I can bring to town (my knowledge of both of them in Real life) and trying to point it out as invalid. You think my one post of defending Xeris makes him mafia if I am? You've just created a lot of text here again, that doesn't say anything.
+
Yes its different, but all knowledge should be used? Again, why would you not want me to bring these things up? If you've known someone for 10 years both ONLINE AND OFFLINE, HOW IN THE WORLD would I not have a good read on them.
No matter how well you know them, I doubt you can know if they are mafia or town by 3-4 pretty much oneliner posts about promising more. Or then you're one heck of a mindreader. I still don't get why you are protecting them so hard.
Admittingly it's impossible to make a case on them on anything else than lurking, and if they are townies then they are making the game considerably harder for us :/ Hopefully we'll get replacements soon.
Liquid`Sheth wrote:
In a lot of the games I've played previously a DT for a mafia is a good trade. I think its a good trade here as well if they have a few people who are confirmed townies. You suggest here that DT can find mafia on his own then post his reads just like the rest of us. If the DT has 2 mafia he should for sure just come out and say it I think. So more just wrong information...
A DT for a mafia is a good trade? Certainly not this early in the game. How can you be sure someone is DT if another person would counterclaim? You were fishing for blue roles earlier, are you afraid of the chance a medic could block your night-kills?
On January 08 2012 11:23 CatsnHats wrote:
Cephiro really impressed me with the way he defended himself against your analysis. His statistics post people got angry at him for isn't really that big of a deal for me since it was his first post and it's his first game of forum mafia. Ceph was also the first the post a write-up on all the town, although you picked it apart later. I still think that counts for something. He called out Sheth in his defense post for Sheth's wishy washy play, and later pressured me on my terrible play up to that point. His analysis was the reason I made the martyr post. There was no real way for me to defend my play up to the point, and seeing it written up that way I knew I was distracting from catching scum. His analysis is very good, and I hope he gets back from his sports tournament soon because he's an asset to this town. Cephiro is definitely a town read for me.
Sheth endeared himself in my eyes for defending my newb-play in the beginning, and even after my martyr post he still had a town read for me. I'm starting to think that's because he KNOWS I'm town though. Prob's and Jitsu's analysis has definitely cast a black cloud on the nicest guy in esports. He has ghosted on Prob's analysis of Cephiro, basically promising analysis in the morning on someone's that bothered him. Prob posts his Ceph analysis, and then Sheth's like "oh yeah we was mine too." Just seems like he was waiting for someone to post original content so he can ghost it. And the way he has handled the Xeris situation is shady as well.
Sheth is our best case so far, but I'm really holding out hope (albeit a faint one) that Xeris, Gretorp, or AH will talk before the lynch. I will at least do this:
##Unvote: CatsnHats
I'm not going anywhere unless the town or mafia decides it.
At this point you seem fairly suspicious of Sheth. Why do you suddenly find him so town? You keep changing your minds on everyone, I just don't understand what the hell is going on in your head. Either you are the most confused player ever, or then you're clever mafia trying to get back in by confusing everyone and trying to get on the right bandwagons in time. I suspect the latter.
On January 08 2012 11:58 CatsnHats wrote:@Prob yeah I do think they are (Blurry too) better scum targets than Sheth. I think we are letting the terrible activity level of half this town make us point the finger at each other. @Sheth you're exactly right. I'm ghosting on Prob's analysis of you. Gonzaw ghosted on it too and has already put a placeholder vote on you. I REALLY don't like that. He says that your words in your defense could have an effect on changing his mind, but that he won't be around to see it. WHAT IS THAT? This is a really important time in this game. We really need a lynch on mafia. That doesn't sit well with me. Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 12:57 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
Also, your crazy to not think that there is no relation between who you analyse and find scummy and whether or not you are scum. If the person we follow along with the most picks 3 town in a row, theres a solid chance hes mafia. If the person we follow kills 3 mafia in a row, theres a solid chance hes town. I don't know how you can't agree with that.
@Everyone The phrase I bolded is really interesting to me. It seems like the town (including myself) has followed Probulous without much question. He has posted so much many long posts so often that we have written him off as town without thought and reanalysis. Do you think that Probulous is getting by without enough criticism? He's not a D2 lynch target by any means, but do you think that is true? This is NOT FOS, I'm just asking a question.
The lurkers are better targets in your opinion. I admit it's certainly not pro-town play, but considering they are about to get modkilled or replaced, why would you not try to pick out the active scum? Even if they both would be mafia (Which I find very unlikely, and quite sure that's not the case), there would be still one scum remaining among the active players. Go and find that one!
Then you talk about how people ghost Probu's analysis, even YOURSELF. But then you are getting suspicious on Gonzaw for doing the same. Do you have enough fingers to point in all those directions? I sure don't.
Then you are "not suspecting Probu", but curious about if people are letting him by too easily. Sure, you can ask about it from others, but make a case on it yourself if you think that's what happening. I've seen at least me and Sheth critizise his analysis (admittingly, we were the ones being accused).
On January 08 2012 12:44 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
I've been too distracted by all of this pressure on me that I havn't done another full write up on Cephiro.
That's no excuse, even to this point I haven't seen but smaller analysis from you, not a single "full write-up". Too distracted by all the pressure on you? That sure didn't prevent me from trying to catch scum when I was under pressure, even though admittingly delaying it a bit.
Post 3. More coming up.
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United States2095 Posts
On January 09 2012 08:41 Probulous wrote:Show nested quote +On January 09 2012 08:19 Liquid`Sheth wrote:On January 09 2012 07:33 Probulous wrote:
I am not scared of Cats if he is mafia. He is so scummy now that he little to no influence on the town. He is not a threat (sorry Cats but that is plainly true). Sheth, clearly has influence.
He has played this game very well but not well enough. I would implore you that if you let him live tonight, he can take what we have written and change his game to suit. Cats play does not look like someone who has a team behind them. It is wishy-wasy and bandwagonny as anything, but it isn't dangerous. Hell he doesn't even know who he is voting for. No Cats, is not a problem.
If he is mafia, he is a mafia with no town cred. In all likelihood he will get lynched either today or tomorrow but he will never be listened to. He has had too many chances. Sheth however is dangerous. He has shown himself capable enough to sow doubt, let him live and he will do more.
Sheth is trying to push the lynch onto someone easy, someone who has not played this game well. I am willing to put my credibility on the line that Sheth is scum. Last lynch, I capitulated instead of forcing my case. I was certain that Cookie was scum but even more so of Cephiro. Then when Ceph showed how he can actually play I realised my mistake, I accepted Cookie's lynch because he was already on my list, but unfortunately it allowed others to sheep. There was no other lynch being pushed (a sure sign of a miss-lynch coming).
Well today we don't have that problem, everyone has a simple choice. Who is the better lynch, Sheth or Cats?
Clearly Sheth is more dangerous, and Cats play looks similar to Cookie's, except that he has tried to defend himself (terribly but the effort is there). If you accept that a mafia Sheth is more dangerous than a mafia Cats, the question is quite simple, is Sheth scum?
So far we have the following votes:
Sheth (4) (Probulous, Gonzaw, Blurry the blatant sheep, Cephiro)
Cats (2) (Jitsu, Sheth)
We are waiting the following to vote
Cats
AnxiousHippo
Xeris
Gretorp
Come on guys, don't do this last minute. Take a stand and lynch Sheth This post is so bad again. I get your worried about me being "dangerous" and all. But I don't see how I am. Its all based on analysis and now your not even going to use your logic, your just calling me dangerous and trying to get people scared of me. You even in this post call Cats "So scummy now". If you think hes so scummy you just want me dead because I'm dangerous to you and not following along with you. If it comes down to it at the end, would you move your vote to Cats to stop a no-lynch Prob ? Are you seriously suggesting that you are not more dangerous than Cats? Cats has zero town cred, you had plenty and the fact that Jitsu still hasn't moved his vote suggest the same. You have pushed arguments and swayed town. It was you who convinced me to change my vote after which remarkably, AKCT was lynched within half an hour. I am taking responsibility for my vote, I have explained it. In this particular instance I look as guilty as you, but I had my reasons. Like I said Ceph's respons confused the hell out of me, but you, your only reason for not lynching Ceph was to avoid a no-lynch. You still thought (and do) think he is scum but you didn't even try and convince others. You didn't even try and avoid AKCT lynch, why? Why, if Cephiro is your number one scum read do you just give up when two people vote in another direction? I had a reason to change, I started to think Cephiro was not mafia. You still had him as your number one mafia pick and yet you suggested we switch. Given how many votes rolled in after mine, it would have been possible to lynch Ceph. But no, it was easier to lynch AKCT and then go into day 2 hoping Ceph was still looking scummy. That way you could convince us to lynch him Day 2. This had the added benefit that you didn't have to post your "nail him to the wall" read until much later. Sorry Sheth but you had no real reason to give up your case on Ceph so easily. That was damning in my eyes. Show nested quote +
When you're away for a while PLEASE READ THE THREAD. WTH!? JUST BUSSING ME FOR NO REASON. YOUR SO MAFIA.
You do realise the only way that Ceph could be bussing you is if your both mafia?
I get that I'm "dangerous" if I'm mafia. I'm just not and this basing your argument against me is horrible. Also if you may have noticed most of my posts have been me defending myself, however when I'm not defending myself I'm adamantly pointing out Cephiro to be scum.
And Really!? I got angry and used a bad termonology. Ask Jitsu, bussing was used for a mafia trying to just get another townie lynched with no reason in our last game. I also used all CAPS and said YOUR instead of You're, care to lynch me based on those as well?
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United States2095 Posts
The irony on the You're...
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United States2095 Posts
That's no excuse, even to this point I haven't seen but smaller analysis from you, not a single "full write-up". Too distracted by all the pressure on you? That sure didn't prevent me from trying to catch scum when I was under pressure, even though admittingly delaying it a bit.
Post 3. More coming up.
Then read my filter please... I realize its a lot, But your on my list of everyone. I took the time to write up a list about just about everyone and my reads and you're ignoring it. Stop doing that please.
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United States2095 Posts
EBWOP
That's no excuse, even to this point I haven't seen but smaller analysis from you, not a single "full write-up". Too distracted by all the pressure on you? That sure didn't prevent me from trying to catch scum when I was under pressure, even though admittingly delaying it a bit.
Post 3. More coming up.
Was said by Cephiro
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On January 09 2012 08:39 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
When Sheth flips town hes going to look really really good. - -
If I cared about being in the spotlight I woudln't have even started this thing against Ceph and don't pretend you were the FIRST to notice him.
But I was the first to post a full case and vote for him. Don't try and pretend that I wasn't the first to actively push for his lynch. I was the one who did that, not you. You "leaned" on him remember?
You also switched votes before me on to AKCT if I recall correctly. Quit just blatantly lieing about that too.
Where did I say that you voted for him first? I didn't. You suggested it. Here is your suggestion
On January 06 2012 08:07 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
I'm here. however I have to leave soon. Probulous sense were the only two active are you willing to go on to AKCT? I'd rather get a lynch then none and we seem to be the only two willing to switch.
On January 06 2012 08:13 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
Probulous please read my question, as I have to leave really quickly and want your take on this. Unless you tell me otherwise I'm going to move my vote over to AKCT when I leave because a lynch is better then no-lynch.
and here is my vote
On January 06 2012 08:15 Probulous wrote:Show nested quote +On January 06 2012 08:07 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
I'm here. however I have to leave soon. Probulous sense were the only two active are you willing to go on to AKCT? I'd rather get a lynch then none and we seem to be the only two willing to switch. I prefer Cephiro but if you are leaving than I guess so. ##vote A Killer Cuppa Tea
I suggested a No-lynch was worse then a lynch and you agreed. This was solid reasoning, quit taking good reasoning and saying it wasn't and it makes me scum.
I had a reason to switch from Cephiro, I still felt he was mafia but his posts had thrown me. I needed more time to evaluate his defense because it rang true to me. I had both pegged as scum and so when evidence arose that Cephiro might not be scum, I switched. You still believed Cephiro was more likely to be scum than Cats but you suggest we switch to avoid a no-lynch? We still had time and votes available. I admit I should not have switched so easily, it was a bad move and I have explained that, but you haven't. Why would you give up your case against Cephiro so easily?
And trust me, I'm trying my best to Prove that Ceph is scum.
Now, when he looks more like town and you look like mafia 
You earlier posted how you didn't notice when everyone just jumped onto A Killer Cuppa Tea that you should have stopped the train on him and known he wasn't scum. How do you not notice it happening to me now? Suspiciously Hippo or some one like Cats/Jitsu will change there vote on me at the end and voila everyone just kills off the townie and no one is at fault.
The difference is that Day 1 AKCT was NOT my number 1 scum read, he was number 2. Don't worry, when you die I will go look through people's reasoning for their vote. But right now I have to get you lynched, because I believe you are scum and that you have potential to weasel your way out of getting lynched. Cats does not.
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United States2095 Posts
You say
"
I had a reason to switch from Cephiro, I still felt he was mafia but his posts had thrown me. I needed more time to evaluate his defense because it rang true to me. I had both pegged as scum and so when evidence arose that Cephiro might not be scum, I switched. You still believed Cephiro was more likely to be scum than Cats but you suggest we switch to avoid a no-lynch? We still had time and votes available. I admit I should not have switched so easily, it was a bad move and I have explained that, but you haven't. Why would you give up your case against Cephiro so easily?
"
Several people had already said that they were going to be gone for the rest of the day and coudln't change there vote. At the time if you remember there were maybe 3-4 people even online at the time. I never "gave up my case" but I did cause the lynch of CM because I was sure it was either that or No-lynch. Which was the RIGHT decision."
This reasoning is abusrd, your contradicting yourself as well. you say "I should not have switched so easily, it was a bad move and I have explained that, but you havn't." when I have in fact.
I thought it was obvious because I included it in my reason for switching to AKCT was because it was either him or a no-lynch.
And then you say
"Where did I say that you voted for him first? I didn't. You suggested it. Here is your suggestion
"
I Never said I didn't suggest it first, just that you did it before even I could switch. It was only a suggestion to see if you were willing and the fact that I was worried about a no-lynch.
And you're putting words in my mouth with your defense here :
But I was the first to post a full case and vote for him. Don't try and pretend that I wasn't the first to actively push for his lynch. I was the one who did that, not you. You "leaned" on him remember?
I said "Notice" I didn't even say Lean or actively push for a lynch. If I get lynched here because of this faulty logic I'm just gonna sit and laugh at this for a while. This is so messed up.
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On January 08 2012 13:44 CatsnHats wrote:Show nested quote +On January 08 2012 13:22 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
I'm staying up till Responsibility ends. (My last game here). So please post while I'm still here Prob! Or Cats! I don't feel comfortable voting for you Sheth. I think Xeris, Gretorp, AnxiousHippo, and Blurry all have had as much scummy behavior as you, just less activity. I think you are getting targeted because you have a higher quantity of posts, making it easier for you to be quoted/analyzed. My target right now would be Blurry or AnxiousHippo, mainly because they are the most likely to respond at this point. Blurry has made 11 posts overall (an amount big enough to be remembered, but not enough to be picked apart like you), 1post yesterday, which is WIFOM filler Show nested quote +On January 06 2012 00:53 Blurry wrote:
Okay, my last post for the day:
Staying on CM/Tea as I am still unsure about Cephiro.
Other than that, I'm sorry I couldn't contribute more this first day as I am still new to this and am not sure what to look for in terms of reading players but by going over players posts I am getting a good idea and I'm sure my analysis quality will steadily improve over the course of the game.
One thing that strikes me looking back at all this is CM voting for CatsinHats. If CM/Tea is indeed scum then I think this provides evidence towards cats not being scum as I dont think CM would have been that meta especially with the holes in his play he has already shown. This can't be assumed however so I would still be suspicious. and one post today, which was WIFOM filler. Show nested quote +On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote:
I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things.
Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way.
My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum. His big analysis post was 1-2 sentences on each player. Not enough content. Thoughts?
Seriously, your reasons to defend Sheth are horrible. Actually, they're non-existant. "The lurkers look scummy and I think you are being picked on because you're active". He took a risk by playing active, trying to look like a townie, and it backfired since we were able to get the real read on him. You're not going to talk your way out of yourself being scum, and you're not going to be able to save your buddy Sheth either. When either of you flips red today, we have our target for tomorrow.
On January 08 2012 14:16 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
@Cats / Blurry/ Anxious and even you Cephiro the proven townie of Probulous, are you willing to put your vote on me?
You should answer this one way or the other. Please don't just say "because Probulous says so" though. Find your own reasons for lynching me, and just please check my answer for it, if I've answered whatever problem you may have with me. We should be looking at others and I really wish I had the energy to write up a huge post tonight on everyone. Responsibility just ended, G'nite guys, cya in the morning.
Yes, I certainly am. I find it hilarious how you're trying to make me look scummy by making a sarcastical remark about Probu's current read on me. It's not like he determines who is town or scum, we all do ourselves. And I'm certainly not voting for you "just because Probulous says so". I've had my reasons for lynching you for quite a while, and now I'm finally on the edge of getting to some results.
On January 08 2012 22:40 Blurry wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On January 08 2012 10:21 Probulous wrote:Show nested quote +On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote:
I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things.
Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way.
My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum. Terrible post, Gonz is right this tells us nothing at all. However you at least posted your thoughts on Sheth (Cats I'm looking at you). So to make it easy Blurry, would you vote to lynch Sheth? If not why not? Yes I would, and will. #Vote: Liquid'Sheth As to gonzaw's statement of me simply regurgitating information. For the most part that has been true but I've been going by my gut, which is not something you can post when convincing other people to take your side. I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start but don't have the analysis skills to back it up (I know that will read as scummy but bear with me) and write an informed post as to why. If I don't have the evidence to back up my feelings then there is no point in posting it.
This post is just... I don't really know even what to say. Even if you have only a gut feeling, then try and try even harder to find those flaws in their play which can back up your gut feeling. There must be something that causes you the gut feeling. Reasoning that you don't have the analysis skills to back it up is not enough. Everyone may not be able to make 2000 word wall-of-texts, but you can certainly contribute even without doing so. You're not looking good... Step it up or be the next in line for a lynch.
I finally find Sheth's analysis I've been waiting for!
On January 09 2012 05:03 Liquid`Sheth wrote:1. AnxiousHippo : Starts off stating he is a new player (2nd game) and doens't know what to do early on. Starts off with pressuring CookieMaker Not confident enough on his read on cookiemaker and puts a placeholder vote on Xeris. Then instead of reverting back to his own case on CM, he states he hasn't had enough time to read others cases on CM (A K C T) and votes on him to avoid a no-lynch. He then posts a nice argument against Cephiro : + Show Spoiler +On January 06 2012 16:31 AnxiousHippo wrote:Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 12:09 Gretorp wrote:
And i will be doing a huge post otnight most likely just got to get caught up since it grew a lot When? Don't think we've forgotten. Xeris doesn't quite look scummy because we have nothing to analyse him on but he does look pretty dodgy, especially with Sheth's post in mind. Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 12:57 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
Well, the Xeris thing is based completely on the fact that I know him really well IRL and we've played mafia a bunch before. He is really bad mafia. Like he'd be lurking and mod killed if he was mafia. He's already been warned, in a not-newbie game it'd be a modkill. At the moment Cephiro looks more like mafia than CatsnHats, partly because I don't know what to make of Cats' "I give up post". He was also trying to play it safe till the pressure came on. Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 01:23 Cephiro wrote:On January 05 2012 01:10 Tunkeg wrote:
What is it that makes you think CookieMaker is slightly town? You have listed alot of anti-town things about him but not one pro-town thing. He had a very good start in my opinion, posting actively and talking about the different possibilities. I also like the fact that even though he is (or at least was) in favour of the no-lynch, he didn't give up on his thoughts just like that, but was sticking up for himself and why he thinks it's a good idea. I do have to admit that his last posts are quite fluffy, which is why I'm only carefully and only slightly leaning towards town on him for now. Jitsu had a few very good points about him though, which I slightly agree with. But for now I will still stick to my opinion about slightly town, until he posts more. He is on the edge of neutral and slightly town to me though. Also, I am finding myself on thinking of Jitsu as slightly town now. His last post was exactly what I wanted to see from him. On the other hand, I am still not sure about you. I think you are going slightly overboard with how much you are asking other's opinions, but not providing as much of your own. You have been suspecting quite a lot of people this early, and to what I see, there are two possibilities. Either you are mafia and trying to confuse people by trying to accuse a bit of everyone, or then you are just playing aggressive town, fishing for reactions for easier reads. I certainly hope you are the latter. But I remain neutral on you for now. He says he sees Jitsu and CM as slightly town and he's neutral on Tunkeg. He also falls back on "being excited" twice Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 02:38 Cephiro wrote:On January 05 2012 02:24 Tunkeg wrote:
@Ceph and Cats
You guys say I have been suspicious to many players allready. Well, then you missread me, I am only suspicious to CM atm. xeris and Gretorp I am not suspicious of as of yet, just saying I will vote for them if they don't step up.
In my post to Blurry I didn't say I think he is suspicious, only that he haven't contributed greatly yet.
Ceph you said you think I have made to many questions posts and to little content posts. Well, to me content is opinions and analyzis of others play, and in my opinion I have allready made more content than you, including your day one analyzis post. I will give you credit for putting it out there, and it might lead to some discussion, but I think your reads are to vague and therefor the value of it isn't the greatest.
In closing I will say that I am not suspicious of you two as of yet, so there will be no missunderstanding. I see, good of you to clarify that. After re-reading your filter a few times, I personally think that you have posted a lot of opinions, but not that much analysis. I do see your point what you're getting at, and I also do understand your opinion about my analysis post. I do have to agree with you they don't tell that much yet, but I am trying to provide others an idea of my opinions at the moment, and raising dicussion to help me clarify my reads. Might also have to do with me still being excited to get this game started.  + Show Spoiler +Hopefully they will answer your question posts seriously so we'll get more content thanks to you. I am not suscpicious of you either, but your recent answer enables me to get a better understanding of your playstyle, which I thank you for.
About your question as of Jitsu's post, it seems like he likes to concentrate his play on a few persons, which is very understandable. For me that post is making me lean to slightly-town on him, but I would like to see him take contact to more persons and his opinions about others too. If he isolates himself to only put pressure on these two it can have it's good sides, but at least I want to hear more of his thoughts before I say anything. He hasn't posted very much yet, but I still don't think he's scum. Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 04:41 Cephiro wrote:On January 05 2012 03:58 Liquid`Sheth wrote:Ahhh yea. Gretorp getting busy. I like it. Were going to get some scum. Ok, well, I'm going to analyse some games for a bit, as I have to work. However before I go, I geuss I'll point out one thing. Everyone seems to be accusing everyone. It doesn't help, because we know its just one persons pressure and honestly we assume its fake pressure, because after all its day1 and we don't have any great reads. So, instead of this I recomend we get behind one person and see if they can tell us why they ARE NOT mafia. I was planning on leaning on Cephiro, for his post here : + Show Spoiler +On January 04 2012 10:42 Cephiro wrote:I'll have to say CookieMaker provides a few good points to start with. Even though none of us knows the exact set up, I would have to argue that we as town have a much better starting point. Considering the case that the mafia would have a role blocker, it will most likely be less useful until later game when people are starting to have better reads on each other. If the town has both the medic and detective, it is quite likely that they will be able to do something useful. (Mafia role blocker would have 9 persons to choose from, since he/she would know the 3 mafia.) That leaves a 2/9 = around 22% chance of roleblocking on the first day, since I'm quite sure there will be no roleclaims this early. On the other hand, the medic has a very small chance of blocking the first kill on N1 (1/11 * 8/9 ~ 8% chance), but the detective has a chance of as much as 27% finding scum on N1 if he doesn't die. (Which would be about 24% in total, which is still higher than the chance of mafia roleblocking.) Note: You may notice I'm into maths a lot.... Also, it might even be that the mafia has a roleblocker but the town has no power roles, which renders the mafia roleblocker useless, making the situation even worse for them. Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1.
A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information.Also... Show nested quote +On January 04 2012 10:12 Probulous wrote:
Come on town let the streets flow with red red blood! What a lovely way to start the game... but on the other hand, I doubt even a newbie scum player would slip that early, even though it could be done on purpose to make us think even a newbie wouldn't slip such, but in fact being scum anyway? It comes down to a wall of text that tell us nothing. It just makes it look like hes contributing a lot when in fact he hasn't come up with a new opinion and his others posts are very non-committal. Just like wishy washy, things, and I thought it was just weird. However this morning you posted + Show Spoiler +On January 05 2012 00:16 Cephiro wrote:
Time for a D1 analysis! Obviously I'll leave myself out, but if someone wants to know more about my opinions / ask why I'm in favor of something, please go ahead, discussion is what we need at the moment.
Also, my apologies if I'm wrong with someone's gender, I'll make a mean generalization and expect everyone to be a male until noted otherwise.
Player List:
1.CookieMaker
For now I'm leaning slightly towards town on him, even though he is quite in-favour of the no-lynch possibility. But I think that may be due to the fact that it's his first game, and he may not have read through/followed many mafia games before. So I'm thinking he's rather be safe than sorry, but hopefully he'll realize the amount of information even a possible mislynch will give us, not even mentioning the huge lead we can get if we nail a mafia on D1. His posts could have slightly more actual content, but he's trying so for now he's okay to me.
2.Liquid`Sheth
Hasn't posted anything useful aside from welcoming people and pressuring CatsnHats. Sure, pressuring at this point has to be done, but deciding to pick on one person for no real reason at this point and providing no other content? Hopefully he means well and just tries to make sure CatsnHats plays pro-town regardless of being new, I mean, Sheth does have 2 previous games of TL mafia as a base of experience. But for now, I am reading something between neutral or slightly scum. I dare you to prove me your innocence, so I'll be waiting for your morning post.
3.AnxiousHippo
Doesn't seem to have any idea of what he should be doing, but I guess it's understandable since it's only his second game. I am hoping to hear more from you, since you haven't posted enough content to make any kind of read on you. Neutral.
5.Tunkeg
Good forewarn on not being able to answer at the start of the game. Appareantly was on the winning side in his first game. He seems like an aggressive type of person, wanting to start the accusations and pressure to get some discussion going on. Thinks that D1 lynch is a must, but backs it up with some very good points. Took the first vote playing it relatively safely, voting for a lurker who hasn't posted yet. Clearly wants something to happen, but I am for now unsure if his method will be very successful. Neutral for now, but if you keep the activity up I should be able to get either a slight-town or slight-scum read on you soon.
6.Jitsu
Seems to want to actively participate, and most of his posts so far are convincing people to lynch on D1. Hasn't posted any actual content other than that though, so I will still stand on a neutral read. I am hoping to hear more content from you soon, I need to get more reads.
7.Xeris
All I can say is, no content, not a good sign. Neutral.
8.Gretorp
Same as above, neutral.
9.Gonzaw
Answering people's questions, trying to explain some of the basic stuff that should be understood, looks good to me. I like the way he pushed to know more about how I seem to know about the game, so he seems like he isn't taking anything for granted. Also suggesting pressure voting to get things going. I have a slight town-read here.
10.Blurry
Seems to be in favour of no-lynching, wanting to stay on the safe side. Hasn't talked about anything but different possibilities if a mafia roleblocker exists. Not useful. (Okay, I'll have to admit that my statistics post at start wasn't necessarily very useful either, but I've been at least trying to post other content as well.) Neutral for now, but if you won't be posting more, I would lean on slightly scum.
11.Probulous
Being very active at the start, and the play seems really town-favouring. Constantly asking for opinions and explaining his reasoning. I like his opinion on lynching, definitely wanting to lynch mafia but still keeping in mind the possibility of being careful incase we don't get any reads on D1. Hopefully we will have some scum reads that we can go for so no-lynch won't be necessary. Pressuring the people that should be on according to timezone but haven't posted. I would have to say you are my strongest town-read so far, I want to hear more of your opinions when you're back.
12.CatsnHats
Being a new player, it's understandable that he's a bit confused, but you really need to learn that you CAN'T TRUST anyone but yourself. Whatever you think about the situation or someone's reads, say it, don't just agree or disagree randomly. I'm kind of worried of the chance that you are a townie whom the mafia would be able to talk around easily, but I hope you'll prove me wrong. (about the convincing part.) Or you could be mafia that is pretending to be a super-newbie town on his first game... who knows. But you're neutral so far. Start posting your opinions!
I'm not going to vote yet myself, but I will join the pressure voting in a few hours if Xeris and Gretorp aren't going to turn up. Which has some negatives and actually contribues some, so I'll back off for now. Kinda ironic that you wanted me to post my read today and my read was on you. @Tunkeg we shall see. CatsnHats what do you think about this Gretorp guys first too posts. Good / bad / scummy?!? Okay, I'll admit that my statistical starting post maybe wasn't the best opening post ever, but at least I tried, unlike many others... can't blame me for being excited and trying to contribute! To be honest, I don't understand your claim about me being wishy-washy at the start, when I was clearly trying to push for some points. For example: On January 04 2012 10:42 Cephiro wrote:
Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1.
A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information. On the other hand when I read your posts, I see almost nothing useful. You're trying to pressure CatsnHats, and trying to clarify some acronyms and such on D1. You're not posting any of your reads. And now you asked CatsnHats about his opinion on Gretorp when he already posted about it... you're giving surprisingly much attention to him to start the game with in my opinion. I'm pointing my FoS at you. I'll have my eyes on you Sheth. I'm not going to accuse you of being scum yet, but I suggest that you all watch Sheth's posts carefully. You'll have to try harder than that to convince me. He also says he doesn't think Sheth is mafia but asks everyone else to watch him closely, implying he wants other people to call him out first so he doesn't have to worry about it. His vote for Tea was also just a placeholder even though he said none of his top 3 scumreads is Tea. Show nested quote +On January 06 2012 08:22 Cephiro wrote:
Placeholder vote since I am quite sure I will not have enough time to convince the town on lynching someone else, sorry AKCT. :/
If there are some specific points anyone of you want me to answer, please point them out now.
##Vote A Killer Cuppa Tea Show nested quote +On January 06 2012 08:37 Cephiro wrote:On January 06 2012 08:23 Probulous wrote:
Two questions Ceph
Would you vote for AKCT?
From that post you think Sheth, Cats and myself are scum? Is that right? I don't want to put words in your mouth again so please label the three scum for me.
Thanks for coming out guns blazing. Voted for AKCT. We need to get a lynch today. This will be a short post since I don't think I will have time for a full analysis, but at the moment the top-3 scumreads (in no particular order) for me are:
Liquid`Sheth, CatsnHats, Gretorp.I am fairly sure that one of the lurkers is scum, even though I could be wrong. Gretorp has promised analysis twice, but nothing so far. Even though I do not like Xeris's overly safe play, I find Gretorp more scum than him at the moment. I was thinking about building a bigger case against you, since you seemed to go for me so aggressively, but even if I would like to see more of your reads on others, I think you have a reason to keep them to yourself for now, and you're just trying to pressure the hell out of who you think are scum. So I'm actually leaning town on you. @Jitsu if you look back at where he said Tea you'd see that I talked right before and after. @CatsNHats get your head back in the game if you're town you should be more focused on killing mafia than convincing everyone you're a dead weight. Just keep trying, your last paragraph was decent, try expanding on that. Then says hes working on "bandwagon analysis" which he has yet to post. Null read.
I like it how the biggest part of your analysis on him is about when he made his poor case on me, trying to accuse me for the worst reasons ever, but you lift it up as a "Nice case". Trying to get everyone's attention on me eh?
More text coming up.. this is taking longer than I expected. Especially going to check up on a certain few of Sheth's analyses.
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United States2095 Posts
Please do Cephiro, it'll give me more ways to catch you up on mistakes.
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On January 09 2012 09:11 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
You say
"
I had a reason to switch from Cephiro, I still felt he was mafia but his posts had thrown me. I needed more time to evaluate his defense because it rang true to me. I had both pegged as scum and so when evidence arose that Cephiro might not be scum, I switched. You still believed Cephiro was more likely to be scum than Cats but you suggest we switch to avoid a no-lynch? We still had time and votes available. I admit I should not have switched so easily, it was a bad move and I have explained that, but you haven't. Why would you give up your case against Cephiro so easily?
"
Several people had already said that they were going to be gone for the rest of the day and coudln't change there vote. At the time if you remember there were maybe 3-4 people even online at the time. I never "gave up my case" but I did cause the lynch of CM because I was sure it was either that or No-lynch. Which was the RIGHT decision."
There were five people who voted (including me, excluding Ceph) after you suggested the switch. The fact that you just accepted you could not convince either Blurry, AKCT or Gonz to switch to Cephiro to prevent a no-lynch is damning. You didn't even try!
This reasoning is abusrd, your contradicting yourself as well. you say "I should not have switched so easily, it was a bad move and I have explained that, but you havn't." when I have in fact.
Bah! Your reasoning is that you wanted to prevent a no-lynch. Well as above five people (including me) switched after you suggested it. That means you actually needed two other people to vote and you could have got Cephiro lynched. Of course we don't know if this was possible or whether those that voted for AKCT would vote for Ceph because you gave up so easily. I did too but that because I thought Cephiro might be town, you gave to prevent a no-lynch.
But I was the first to post a full case and vote for him. Don't try and pretend that I wasn't the first to actively push for his lynch. I was the one who did that, not you. You "leaned" on him remember?
I said "Notice" I didn't even say Lean or actively push for a lynch. If I get lynched here because of this faulty logic I'm just gonna sit and laugh at this for a while. This is so messed up.
The implication is the same. Until I posted my case Cephiro was not on the chopping block. You tried to make it look like you were the one going after him.
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Half an hour to lynch and Xeris, Gretorp and Hippo have not voted
If town gets fucked over because of lurkers I will be pissed.
On January 09 2012 07:44 GreYMisT wrote:
Vote count:
Liquid`Sheth (4) : Probulous, Gonzaw, Blurry, Cephiro
CatsnHats (2): Jitsu, Liquid`Sheth
Blurry (1): CatsnHats
With 10 Alive it takes 6 to lynch. the day ends in ~2 hours and 20 minutes.
I assume Jitsu has left the thread? If not you better switch to Sheth cause we are not lynching Cats today. That means that if it stays this way we end up with a no-lynch because of lurkers 
If they don't vote I will be requesting a mafia ban because this shit is ridiculous.
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@Cats, if you're around, please switch vote to Sheth. There is no way in hell that we are lynching Blurry today, we don't have the numbers or the time. If you want to be useful, vote Sheth.
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Is there anybody out there?
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Posted from iPod.
First, I think Sheth and Cats are equally scummy. Pretty sure if one flips the other will too. What Probu said earlier is slighty irrelevant about Sheths ability to control town because he has more town cred than Cats, because if we have both tagged as scum, it shouldn't matter. Also, me changing my vote earlier was impossible because as I said, I was out.
That being said, lynch is better than no lynch.
Also, Don't say I'm convinced about his attempt to live. Also, don't say you were the first to FoS Sheth. Even if it might be true, it's not pro town.
##vote LiquidSheth
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I'll take it.
That gives us five, fucking Hippo better fucking vote!!!
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United States2095 Posts
I'm here Probulous. Well, @Cats Please switch your vote to me.
@Hippo or anyone else please finish the voting on me.
I've said all along that a no-lynch helps no one. I'm a townie and this won't help much to kill me, but a lynch is better then none here and now you'll know who to lynch tomorrow instead of myself. If you woudln't lynch me today, you'd just keep getting everyone to bandwagon me the following day. This isn't acceptable and I want to win.
##Vote: Liquid`Sheth
@Cats thanks for believing in me.
@Probulous if your town KILL CEPHIRO for me. I still think Xeris isn't mafia based just on my stupid 2 line analysis, but w/e.
@Gonzaw Placeholder vote -- without letting me defend myself, thanks...
@Cephiro, I really hope they catch you next round. You've played well in getting them to lynch me though.
@Jitsu your my main town read, medic save either him or Probulous.
@Lurkers Thanks for letting me die.
Hopefully this helps us win. GL the rest of you. And sorry I didn't always post the perfeet defenses that I should have, it sucks to die like this, but I think its best for all of us. I'm always one for long goodbyes... <3 GL guys!
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EPT
