EPTProbulous wrote:
Thanks for nailing the coffin.
In the same post, the very same post, you quote Jitsu as explaining your thinking clearly and then says he is suspicious because his content is fluffy? Surely, a normal logical response is just to ask Jitsu to provide more thinking, because what he has provided has been useful.
Instead you cast doubt on him. Either you think he is suspicious and act on it, or you don't and act on it. Here you do neither, you give and take in the same post. The irony is that you berate Cats for not taking a stand but you do exactly the same thing.
Thanks for nailing the coffin.
In the same post, the very same post, you quote Jitsu as explaining your thinking clearly and then says he is suspicious because his content is fluffy? Surely, a normal logical response is just to ask Jitsu to provide more thinking, because what he has provided has been useful.
Instead you cast doubt on him. Either you think he is suspicious and act on it, or you don't and act on it. Here you do neither, you give and take in the same post. The irony is that you berate Cats for not taking a stand but you do exactly the same thing.
Here you totally disregard my post earlier about how I answered Jitsu's question, not blaming him. Did you do that on purpose?
Liquid`Sheth wrote:
Hes being so completely passive and neutral.
Hes being so completely passive and neutral.
Are you kidding me? Look at your own posts.
Liquid`Sheth wrote:
He is just following "people providing good reasoning".
He is just following "people providing good reasoning".
I am certainly not following anyone in this game, but if someone notices a very valid point that I don't, which I agree with, why shouldn't I change my opinion? It would be idiotic to play this game by your first-post-reads about everyone. This game is constantly changing, and you need to understand that.
Also, you are accusing ME of following, when what you did is dropped the case against me altogether, and jumped on the bandwagon right after Probulous has posted his analysis. Are you sure you aren't talking about yourself?
Probulous wrote:
Think about it carefully, I have pushed my case based on his posts. If I am wrong, what does that tell you? Nothing! I have exactly the same information as anyone else. You don't like my analysis, show me why, but Cephiro's impending lynch says bugger all about my alignment.
Think about it carefully, I have pushed my case based on his posts. If I am wrong, what does that tell you? Nothing! I have exactly the same information as anyone else. You don't like my analysis, show me why, but Cephiro's impending lynch says bugger all about my alignment.
Trying to make yourself look innocent after going full speed with the Cephiro-train? That is such an outright lie. You are being so eager on lynching me and don't seem to be considering anything else to the slightest, and you say that would provide no information if I flipped town? For me, that would certainly look like a mafia player wanting to get an active town player out asap.
Liquid`Sheth wrote:
And as for your analysis, well I'm showing here why your analysis that his flip won't tell us anything. In honesty if he flips town, it makes you look a lot more like mafia. And if he flips Mafia it makes you look a lot more like town. For those reasons below. If hes town I'm under the same thing and maybe were mafia buddies starting a train on a poor little townie.
And as for your analysis, well I'm showing here why your analysis that his flip won't tell us anything. In honesty if he flips town, it makes you look a lot more like mafia. And if he flips Mafia it makes you look a lot more like town. For those reasons below. If hes town I'm under the same thing and maybe were mafia buddies starting a train on a poor little townie.
Is it just me or are you contradicting yourself when talking about my possible flip? You're saying it wouldn't tell us anything and then you are saying it will cause the other side to look like mafia.... Just... what?
Probulous wrote:
I know this isn't scum-hunting but I have done a lot already so forgive me for this diversion. In short, no. If my analysis is good, and Cephiro turns out to be town, that means that Cephiro was a very scummy town. Right? It does not mean that I am mafia. I could be, but I could also be a town pushing who I think is mafia. How do you tell the difference?
By the quality of the analysis. The same is true if he flips mafia, I agree it is unlikely that mafia would bus day 1. However, they could, the point being speculating about it gives us nothing. In my land, townie cred only exists from the scum you find. If I put together a thorough analysis on someone and they flip town, go back and read my analysis. Was I pushing something too far, was I focusing on some small irrelevant detail? That gives you clues to my alignment, not whether he flips green or red.
I know this isn't scum-hunting but I have done a lot already so forgive me for this diversion. In short, no. If my analysis is good, and Cephiro turns out to be town, that means that Cephiro was a very scummy town. Right? It does not mean that I am mafia. I could be, but I could also be a town pushing who I think is mafia. How do you tell the difference?
By the quality of the analysis. The same is true if he flips mafia, I agree it is unlikely that mafia would bus day 1. However, they could, the point being speculating about it gives us nothing. In my land, townie cred only exists from the scum you find. If I put together a thorough analysis on someone and they flip town, go back and read my analysis. Was I pushing something too far, was I focusing on some small irrelevant detail? That gives you clues to my alignment, not whether he flips green or red.
IF your analysis is good. What if you're making a huge mistake? You are claiming that if I flip town, I was a very scummy town, only based on your fine analysis. You're just keeping trying to convince people about how you are not mafia or how they can't tell if you're mafia or not if I flip town. Goddamnit, stand up for yourself and admit you are certainly not looking too good when I would flip green in a lynch.
"In your land" Well, this isn't your land, and neither is your analysis the only book of law we go by with. I'm still concerned by the fact that you aren't sharing any of your reads except the ones you claim to be scum.
Liquid`Sheth wrote:
Ok, because we have two good reads on scum CatsNHats and Cephiro, I'd like to talk about something else until they come back. There is a chance there is a detective. There is a chance there is a medic.
If you are the detective, you should NOT choose the person who you think will die during the night. You should pick someone who you'd like to know about and isn't likely to be killed soon, and who would really help town to know about.
If you are the medic, you should choose the few people who you think mafia might want dead on this night and WIFOM in between them. However this night you have an advantage, and you might for future nights as well. Mafia isn't sure you exist. The best % they have is that if they have a roleblocker, there's a 50% chance you exist. Because of this, I'd recommend if you exist simply use your ability on who you think is the most townie.
Also, if you've found one mafia you should come out in the open and tell us about it. There are other situations where either medic or detective should come out, such as if you know 3 confirmed town and were nearing LYLO. Use your best judgement on those situations. Does everyone agree that if you find a mafia the detective should come out with them?
Ok, because we have two good reads on scum CatsNHats and Cephiro, I'd like to talk about something else until they come back. There is a chance there is a detective. There is a chance there is a medic.
If you are the detective, you should NOT choose the person who you think will die during the night. You should pick someone who you'd like to know about and isn't likely to be killed soon, and who would really help town to know about.
If you are the medic, you should choose the few people who you think mafia might want dead on this night and WIFOM in between them. However this night you have an advantage, and you might for future nights as well. Mafia isn't sure you exist. The best % they have is that if they have a roleblocker, there's a 50% chance you exist. Because of this, I'd recommend if you exist simply use your ability on who you think is the most townie.
Also, if you've found one mafia you should come out in the open and tell us about it. There are other situations where either medic or detective should come out, such as if you know 3 confirmed town and were nearing LYLO. Use your best judgement on those situations. Does everyone agree that if you find a mafia the detective should come out with them?
At the start you discredit my statistics post, but a bit later on your start talking about power roles yourself? If you find a mafia you should come out in the open and tell it? Sheesh, could you be any more obvious mafia trying to fish out the players with power roles?
CatsnHats wrote:
Yeah I know I look scummy. People are holding my first two newb posts against me and it's clouding their judgement on the rest of my play. At this point in the game Cephiro is definitely more scummy than Gretorp, especially in light of Gretorp promising a long post and his being at work all day. If he follows through it would alleviate a lot of my concerns with him
Yeah I know I look scummy. People are holding my first two newb posts against me and it's clouding their judgement on the rest of my play. At this point in the game Cephiro is definitely more scummy than Gretorp, especially in light of Gretorp promising a long post and his being at work all day. If he follows through it would alleviate a lot of my concerns with him
Jumping on a bandwagon to save yourself scum? Did Gretorp ever give you that long post?
CatsnHats wrote:
I just getting all the possibilities out there, and I said that you all being mafia was low probability, so if anything that would be taking suspicion from you. As I have said before from the beginning, my third (albeit a distant one relative to the others) at the moment is Xeris due to his no-lynch posts, lurking, and non-responses to player questions. He has left very little material to go on, but that is my third for now. For me it's Cephiro>CM>Xeris. I could see Xeris dropping off this list though when he, Gretorp, AH, Blurry, and others post again.
I just getting all the possibilities out there, and I said that you all being mafia was low probability, so if anything that would be taking suspicion from you. As I have said before from the beginning, my third (albeit a distant one relative to the others) at the moment is Xeris due to his no-lynch posts, lurking, and non-responses to player questions. He has left very little material to go on, but that is my third for now. For me it's Cephiro>CM>Xeris. I could see Xeris dropping off this list though when he, Gretorp, AH, Blurry, and others post again.
Moar bandwagon, you are just blindly convinced by everything Probulous said trying to hide and save your own scummy ass.
Xeris wrote:
Meh. I'm not convinced of anything. I'll follow along with a lynch if people are convinced and just going to go for it- but I stand by my belief of not killing on the first day. Seriously, thinking people are scummy because of stupid analysis skills and bad/inconsistent posts is really silly.
Meh. I'm not convinced of anything. I'll follow along with a lynch if people are convinced and just going to go for it- but I stand by my belief of not killing on the first day. Seriously, thinking people are scummy because of stupid analysis skills and bad/inconsistent posts is really silly.
Still no posts after this, wants a no-lynch (Free kills for mafia anyone?), but at least he isn't jumping on bandwagons blindly unlike some others.
Jitsu wrote:
Also, there is a point where you are jumping back and forth between a miss-lynch and no-lynch policy
Also, there is a point where you are jumping back and forth between a miss-lynch and no-lynch policy
I have been true to my first post statement the whole game, we NEED to lynch someone on day 1.
"I'm not entirely convinced on a no-lynch, but I do agree that lynching a townie on D1 is a bad start. I think it comes down to how much information we'll have, if there are any seemingly scumreads I personally think we gain more as town if we try to lynch the scum, since if we hit, we are at a very good advantage."
If you mean that, it was in response to CookieMaker's posts, since he was actively pushing for no-lynch at start. That I am not convinced on a no-lynch equals to I am not in favour of it.
Liquid`Sheth wrote:
I guess I should have brought all of this up earlier, but I thought Prob's post was good enough to get us lynching him.
I guess I should have brought all of this up earlier, but I thought Prob's post was good enough to get us lynching him.
Again, not continuing your pressure, but letting someone do the dirty work for you. What on earth are you doing Sheth, at first you tell everyone that they should not trust you or anyone else, but think for themselves, and now you're bandwagoning hardcore.
Probulous wrote:
AS you point out Ceph pops into the thread and then disapears, we have less than 2 hrs to lynch, why do this?
AS you point out Ceph pops into the thread and then disapears, we have less than 2 hrs to lynch, why do this?
Considering your wall-of-text, you should know that it's not exactly a fast thing to compose a defense against all your accusations, especially if I want it to be in a readable format. What did you do yourself during the first 24 hours? Stick around for the start, come back after everyone else has provided enough content so you can make your analysis.
Probulous wrote:
Point to something useful in that post.
Point to something useful in that post.
You are still trying to discredit the whole post because I answered gonz's question about my experience in Mafia, trying to claim it's just fluff. Answering other players' questions is not fluff. If you didn't notice,
"What I want to do today is covered in my post you already quoted."
Which you seem to totally ignore.
Reading through last page now and answering any possible posts that have come up in the meanwhile.
