EPTNewbie Mini Mafia II - Page 18
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Liquid`Sheth
United States2095 Posts
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote: Cephiro You are one smart SOB, but not smart enough Mr Scum. I am going to go slowly because you have a lot of posts and you look like your contributing, but when you look closely, you ain’t saying nothing! Your first post + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 10:42 Cephiro wrote: I'll have to say CookieMaker provides a few good points to start with. Even though none of us knows the exact set up, I would have to argue that we as town have a much better starting point. Considering the case that the mafia would have a role blocker, it will most likely be less useful until later game when people are starting to have better reads on each other. If the town has both the medic and detective, it is quite likely that they will be able to do something useful. (Mafia role blocker would have 9 persons to choose from, since he/she would know the 3 mafia.) That leaves a 2/9 = around 22% chance of roleblocking on the first day, since I'm quite sure there will be no roleclaims this early. On the other hand, the medic has a very small chance of blocking the first kill on N1 (1/11 * 8/9 ~ 8% chance), but the detective has a chance of as much as 27% finding scum on N1 if he doesn't die. (Which would be about 24% in total, which is still higher than the chance of mafia roleblocking.) Note: You may notice I'm into maths a lot.... Also, it might even be that the mafia has a roleblocker but the town has no power roles, which renders the mafia roleblocker useless, making the situation even worse for them. Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1. A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information. Also... What a lovely way to start the game... but on the other hand, I doubt even a newbie scum player would slip that early, even though it could be done on purpose to make us think even a newbie wouldn't slip such, but in fact being scum anyway? Sheth rightly pointed out the lack of content in this post. It looks great from a distance but says nothing. I point this out and you eventually play down the stats. More damning from my point of view is your support for Cookie’s first post. His post was way worse than mine, but you call me out and my stupid pun and support him? You still haven’t explained how what I wrote was a supposed “scum-slip” but it was enough to paint me suspicious straight up. In addition, you like Cookie go on about blue roles. This is a scum tactic, there is no reason for town to discuss the possible setup until we have information from the night events. Anything else risks outing blues, but you keep on about it. As I already admit earlier, I did end up agreeing that the stats would not be useful in early game, which is why I didn't ramble on about them further. I do not agree with you on your claim that there would be NO reason for town to discuss the setup until information from night events. Why? Because even though we are all newbies, there may be people with more experience and others with less. This enables the more experienced players to ensure that if a total "idiot" townie would have got a power role, it wouldn't be misused. Regarding your joke, I took it up to fish for reactions and give you a poke. I wanted to see if you would try to explain yourself more in-depth, or just regard it as a joke and excuse yourself not needing to analyze it any further. Which was fine for me, since I knew that message had no real meaning, I got what I wanted. + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 10:11 CookieMaker wrote: Okay townies... we are presented with a dilemma. Disadvantage #1: There are few (if any) roles in this game, making identity confirmation scarce. However, that being said, the significant advantage we have over the mafia is their lack of killing power. They are only going to be able to snipe (at most, with any luck we got a doc) one person each night. This means the pressure is really going to be on them to avoid being lynched. I urge you, when voting time comes, do your homework, and proofread the homework of others carefully. Rash vote swings by emotional players only help the scum hide on their bandwagons. I am making an assumption here, but the other likely advantage we possess is the experience of a few key players. I'd be absolutely shocked if all three mafiasifarians were players who had (lots of) prior experience playing, but I'd also be surprised if they were three complete newbies. My impression is that one mafia will be a strong player and will deftly manipulate and lead the other two. So this is the first day. I elect #thefirstpersontocomeupwithaplan for mayor Why should I not support this post? In my opinion it provides a few basic, yet good points for people to remember. I do agree the latter part is just fluffy theorycrafting about someone leading the mafia, that doesn't really matter. To compare, this is your first post: + Show Spoiler + Probalous wrote on January 04 2012 10:12 I expect great things from those that have played before. It seems fair to me that they should be expected to contribute. Of course, everyone should be actively contributing, but I will be really disapointed if the guys who have played don't put in the effort. You know the cost and will be held accountable. With this in mind can the following people let me know how many (if any) games they have played? Jitsu Xeris Gretorp Gonzaw This is my first game and I intend to win. Come on town let the streets flow with red red blood! I bolded the single only thing in your post that wasn't just fluff talking. There's not really a big difference if the guys have played 0 games or up to 1-2. But fine, I'm not blaming you for wanting to know, since it may be part of your strategy on making reads. On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote: Then comes a nice filler post + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 10:54 Cephiro wrote:+ Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 10:49 AnxiousHippo wrote: I'm pretty sure scum are sometimes referred to as Reds, I guess he was trying to make a pun? I don't think it was a slip. Myeah, You're probably right, since as I said, I wouldn't expect even a newbie mafia slip this early. Gotta be careful about puns though, they could be misunderstood. Even though it actually could be good scumbaiting, fishing for the player's reactions for better reads? Well, in any case we'll have to get some discussion going on. Or random accusations to get people to talk. (Or maybe I'm just too eager regardless of the fact I know most people in Europe won't be awake at a time like this.) I admit, this post doesn't have much content. If you didn't notice, you totally ignored my question (bolded) here. May I know for what reason? You are claiming me for having contentless posts at start, yet you should just see some of yours again. + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 10:21 Probulous wrote: There is no mayor and that is big assumption given this is a specifically newbie game with everyone on less than 3 games. To me, it is more reasonable that nobody is an assumed strong player and we will find out who are, as we go along. Of course previous experience is useful for setting activity expectations but deciding on scum targets based on possible non-random allocation is a big reach. I don't like it. Anyone that reads the rules knows there is no mayor. + The rest of the post is just your opinions about assumptions that are totally useless. + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 11:05 Probulous wrote: Lovely maths, does it say anything For one Mafia cannot have a roleblocker with no town power roles. The only setup with a roleblocker is one where we have both a medic and DT. Secondly, the maths doesn't help us actually do anything, unless there is something I am missing. Thirdly a no-lynch is better than a miss-lynch. I will be more happy to not lynch someone than lynch someone I think is town. Yes it was a bad pun, I am not sure how it could be a scum tell. So much for trying to be entertaining You join in the so-called useless power role discussion, yet you are providing false information about the setups yourself. That could easily be trying mafia to mislead, but in all honesty, I think you just did a newbie mistake which could happen to anyone. My point being: Try not to be too eager to call others on mistakes you have done yourself. + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 11:38 Probulous wrote: I agree with this. It is also why we need everyone to post. We can't catch scum if they say nothing. Sheth, you finished dinner yet? Gretorp, Cats are you guys around? Blurry and Cephiro, thanks for staying up so late. Were you talking about fillers...? On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote: Your response to my question about what purpose the stats offer is + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 11:21 Cephiro wrote: Well, it was mainly some statistics to prove how the situation is better for town in case the mafia has a role blocker and we have power roles. Also, there is a set up which contains both power roles (DT+Medic for town), and the mafia roleblocker. You can check the opening post for the 4 possible setups. I'm not entirely convinced on a no-lynch, but I do agree that lynching a townie on D1 is a bad start. I think it comes down to how much information we'll have, if there are any seemingly scumreads I personally think we gain more as town if we try to lynch the scum, since if we hit, we are at a very good advantage. And even if we don't, it will raise much more discussion and easier reads depending on who has been voting for who and so on. In other words, nothing. The rest is fairly decent. Again I pressure you on what purpose the stats offer and you finally agree that it means nothing. Nothing but fairly decent? I don't get you... And after this, as you pressure me on the usefulness of the stats, I finally realize that they aren't that useful earlygame, so after this I stop theorycrafting until later on. + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 11:44 Cephiro wrote: Heh, such happens. But yeah, the statistics won't be very useful yet, but they are good to know anyway. (I study statistics at uni, and I love to try and apply them into everything.) I am quite sure it will become useful sooner or later, especially if we get the chance of backtracking roles. What I want to do today is covered in my post you already quoted. I would like us to be able to raise enough discussion and get a decent shot at who could be scum, since 2 mafia versus 8-9 townies (depending on if one dies N1 or not) would be an incredibly good situation for us. CookieMaker has a good point though, there is a 50% chance that there is a DT in the game, and buying him time to find the scum isn't a bad idea either. But we can't be certain if there is one or not, which why I'm still slightly favour for trying to lynch scum today, at least for now. We have quite a bit of time on us though, so if it seems like we can't get good reads on anyone and it's just a huge mess, we can still go for the no-lynch. Also, no problem for staying up late, I'm very bad at sleeping early and I'm so excited to play my first game of Forum Mafia! I will be going to sleep in 20 minutes or so though. On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote: But then you go again about the setup. If the stats of the setup mean nothing, than the setup itself means nothing. We cannot get any info from discussing it until we have night actions. These posts are long but you haven’t actually said anything. You look like your contributing but you aren’t. Going on about the setup? Not really, I only mention the possibility of buying a possible DT more time, not going on about setups further than that. I am not contributing anything? I bold my statement which is along the lines of my original post. On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote: Your last post of the night was + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 12:21 Cephiro wrote: Yeah, it's my first forum game ever. Haven't played this anywhere else either. I've read through quite a bunch of advanced games on different forums though, and I generally consider myself good at mindgames or understanding what people think / why they do something etc. So I'm really excited to see if it's correlates to success in here. Yeah, you heard right, watch out mafia! I am going to sleep now though. I will re-read the thread (especially the new posts) a few times once I wake up and will try to join in as much as I can. If you have a hard time of trying to find out who is scum, then please do the town a favor and at least try to find some most-likely-town reads, since even that will help us narrow down the possible lynch. I do agree that we could pressure vote lurkers/inactives later on in D1, hopefully forcing them to defend themselves and give us better reads. Is there anything in there that helps town to catch scum? The only thing you say is that if you can’t catch scum, try and prove people are town, but of course you don’t do anything like that do you? Wishy-washy trash. How on earth can you claim this post is just wishy-washy trash? The first part may be, but it's because I answered Gonzaw's question about how I seem to know about the game. Why should I have left it unanswered? Nope, there is no reason why I should've skipped that. So don't blame it as wishy-washy trash. Skipping genuine questions would just wake up suspicisions, and why would I want that as a townie? Also, of course I wouldn't do anything like that, what is that bullshit? I was the first person to share all my reads. You certainly weren't. | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote: Now my personal favourite, your analysis. I will you credit for being the first person to post one but god damn you could not have done a worse job. I am going to go through each person and see how wrong you can be. + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 00:16 Cephiro wrote: Time for a D1 analysis! Obviously I'll leave myself out, but if someone wants to know more about my opinions / ask why I'm in favor of something, please go ahead, discussion is what we need at the moment. Also, my apologies if I'm wrong with someone's gender, I'll make a mean generalization and expect everyone to be a male until noted otherwise. Player List: 1.CookieMaker For now I'm leaning slightly towards town on him, even though he is quite in-favour of the no-lynch possibility. But I think that may be due to the fact that it's his first game, and he may not have read through/followed many mafia games before. So I'm thinking he's rather be safe than sorry, but hopefully he'll realize the amount of information even a possible mislynch will give us, not even mentioning the huge lead we can get if we nail a mafia on D1. His posts could have slightly more actual content, but he's trying so for now he's okay to me. On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote: You lean town because ” But I think that may be due to the fact that it's his first game” Earth to Cephiro, it is everyone’s first (second or third) game. That is no excuse. Essentially you are saying that you disagree with everything he says but think he is town because this is his first game? BAD Cephiro! You do realize that different persons react differently under pressure? If we put 10 persons in a situation none of them has ever been in, I can assure you that they will not react the same way. And my thinking here is that CM would be the type of person that would react in such a way. I can admit that's quite a long shot, but it's my read. I at no point said I disagree with everything he said, so you are putting words into my mouth here. Bad Probulous! + Show Spoiler + 2.Liquid`Sheth Hasn't posted anything useful aside from welcoming people and pressuring CatsnHats. Sure, pressuring at this point has to be done, but deciding to pick on one person for no real reason at this point and providing no other content? Hopefully he means well and just tries to make sure CatsnHats plays pro-town regardless of being new, I mean, Sheth does have 2 previous games of TL mafia as a base of experience. But for now, I am reading something between neutral or slightly scum. I dare you to prove me your innocence, so I'll be waiting for your morning post. On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote: At this point he had done more than Cookie. He had attempted to out scum by pressuring Cats. A point you recognize. I want you to read this again and again an try tell me why a town would say this ” Sure, pressuring at this point has to be done, but deciding to pick on one person for no real reason at this point and providing no other content?” Sheth had a reason, he made it clear. Cats was being non-commital. Even if he had not reason, pressure outs people. It is always good at this stage of the game. For this you paint him less town than Cookie AND slightly scummy? BAD Cephiro! Maybe he had done more in your opinion. My opinion was that the only useful thing he had done (at that point), was that he had only pressured the new player, and then letting him off the hook just like that. The way he did it semt scummy to me, got a problem with that? I am just telling my genuine reads, don't like them, convince me otherwise. I was the first one to show everyone all my cards at that point, because I wanted to raise discussion. On the other hand, all you did is sat back and waited for everyone to talk, and came in with a huge-ass post later yourself. You left the scene since you were satisfied of most people considering you pro-town, and you slipped under pretty much everyone's radar, not many people were wondering why you weren't taking part in discussion. And when you came with your huge scumpost, all you did was provide very short explanation why you think some people are town, then stating "These are just neutral to me, that's it", and then moving all the attention into your huge scumpost. Effectively focusing everyone on your scumpost, and turning the attention away from yourself, to ensure people don't change their townread about you, but concentrate on believing on your accusations. + Show Spoiler + 3.AnxiousHippo Doesn't seem to have any idea of what he should be doing, but I guess it's understandable since it's only his second game. I am hoping to hear more from you, since you haven't posted enough content to make any kind of read on you. Neutral. On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote:¨ I’m fine with this Nothing to comment here. + Show Spoiler + 5.Tunkeg Good forewarn on not being able to answer at the start of the game. Appareantly was on the winning side in his first game. He seems like an aggressive type of person, wanting to start the accusations and pressure to get some discussion going on. Thinks that D1 lynch is a must, but backs it up with some very good points. Took the first vote playing it relatively safely, voting for a lurker who hasn't posted yet. Clearly wants something to happen, but I am for now unsure if his method will be very successful. Neutral for now, but if you keep the activity up I should be able to get either a slight-town or slight-scum read on you soon. On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote: Cephiro, Cephiro, I know you wanted to speak but damn, Tunkeg has had the best posting yet. Much better than yours. You even say ” Thinks that D1 lynch is a must, but backs it up with some very good points.” Voting for a lurker is pressuring them to participate. Sure it may have been a safe move, but you can’t say shit since you haven’t even voted yet. You cast doubt on how successful his pressuring will be but don’t offer anything else. In essence you are undermining his methods which you even admit that “He seems like an aggressive type of person, wanting to start the accusations and pressure to get some discussion going on” Please try and explain why a townie would try and discredit the way someone is trying to out scum without offering an alternative? Any effort is good effort and all your “analysis” does is undermine Tunkeg. You have no proof for why he might be scummy other than his aggressiveness but even that you say is because he wants to start discussion. You admit you have nothing on him, so why cast doubt on his methods? BAD Cephiro! Safe move yes, but why should I not be allowed to say that aloud? You're not any better at this point, having posted far less content than me, waiting for your town-saving newspost. So you can't go aggressive on me for not voting at this point either, unless you admit your play was even worse. I am here also giving my genuine reads, I am not trying to undermine him in any way, I just posted my feeling about his methods. Should I have said bullshit such as "I think what he does is awesome", if I didn't really think so? I gave him a neutral read back then. + Show Spoiler + 6.Jitsu Seems to want to actively participate, and most of his posts so far are convincing people to lynch on D1. Hasn't posted any actual content other than that though, so I will still stand on a neutral read. I am hoping to hear more content from you soon, I need to get more reads. On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote: Good lordy, he was the first person to pressure Cookie about the stupidity of advocating a no-lynch. That is a damn site more than you have done and far and beyond Cookie, but no Cookie is slightly town but Jitsu is null? BAD Cephiro! He had posted against the no-lynch in general, and called out on Hippo and Cookie in _ONE_ post by this point, which wasn't enough for me to get a solid read on him. If I am unsure, why should I not admit it? I also wanted to make him post more, so I was trying to provoke him with my claim of "Hasn't posted any actual content other than that". Which he then replied he has his reasons for. + Show Spoiler + 7.Xeris All I can say is, no content, not a good sign. Neutral. 8.Gretorp Same as above, neutral. On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote: Fine with these. Nothing to see here. + Show Spoiler + 9.Gonzaw Answering people's questions, trying to explain some of the basic stuff that should be understood, looks good to me. I like the way he pushed to know more about how I seem to know about the game, so he seems like he isn't taking anything for granted. Also suggesting pressure voting to get things going. I have a slight town-read here. On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote: This is where you sunk your ship. I agree that Gonz is town but put these two quotes together You give the first a slight scum/neutral read and the second a town read. BAD Cephiro! Gonz and Tunkeg had very different playstyle in my opinion. Here you are putting words into my mouth again, which I am finding quote offending at this point, trying to make look worse than what I am. The first was a statement considering taking the first vote, and Tunkeg didn't encourage others to pressure vote at this point even though he did so himself, unlike Gonz who also suggested others to do that. There is a difference between doing something yourself and encouraging others to do it as well. The difference in their playstyle and between keeping the pressure voting to himself/encouraging it to everyone was the main reason I ended up reading Tunkeg as neutral and Gonz as town at this point. + Show Spoiler + 10.Blurry Seems to be in favour of no-lynching, wanting to stay on the safe side. Hasn't talked about anything but different possibilities if a mafia roleblocker exists. Not useful. (Okay, I'll have to admit that my statistics post at start wasn't necessarily very useful either, but I've been at least trying to post other content as well.) Neutral for now, but if you won't be posting more, I would lean on slightly scum. 11.Probulous Being very active at the start, and the play seems really town-favouring. Constantly asking for opinions and explaining his reasoning. I like his opinion on lynching, definitely wanting to lynch mafia but still keeping in mind the possibility of being careful incase we don't get any reads on D1. Hopefully we will have some scum reads that we can go for so no-lynch won't be necessary. Pressuring the people that should be on according to timezone but haven't posted. I would have to say you are my strongest town-read so far, I want to hear more of your opinions when you're back. On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote: Fine with these (obviously). Nothing to comment here. + Show Spoiler + 12.CatsnHats Being a new player, it's understandable that he's a bit confused, but you really need to learn that you CAN'T TRUST anyone but yourself. Whatever you think about the situation or someone's reads, say it, don't just agree or disagree randomly. I'm kind of worried of the chance that you are a townie whom the mafia would be able to talk around easily, but I hope you'll prove me wrong. (about the convincing part.) Or you could be mafia that is pretending to be a super-newbie town on his first game... who knows. But you're neutral so far. Start posting your opinions! On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote: This says nothing about Cats at all. You say one thing then produce a nice WIFOM to discredit what you just said. You actually say anything about him at all. Whatever man, you are heading for a lynch ## Vote Cephiro I'll admit that I did not analyse CatsnHats in the same way as others, I ended up concentrating too much telling him what he should do in my opinion. This was partly affected by the fact that I still thought he was too wishy-washy even after Sheth's early pressure, and I wanted to make sure that for example Sheth wouldn't get a grip on him, since I had Sheth as slightly scum at this point. | ||
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Cephiro
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Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
On January 06 2012 06:50 Tunkeg wrote: Well my biggest scumread is CM/AKCT. I have Ceph on pretty neutral. So I will stick by my vote. I will go to bed in like 45 minutes, and I really don't want a no-lynch. So please the rest of you who haven't voted, please vote and make your vote count. Hey Tunk before you go to bed let me explain claerly why Cephiro is a better bet than CM/AKCT. If you reread CM filter he is clearly afraid to take positions, unfortunately this can be explained by being new. Yes we are all new and his posturing doesn't help but at least he awas active and gets more ascertive as time goes on. I also think it is fair to let AKCT have a little time to make a presence. That being said, so far not good  I still have a scum read but it isn't as strong as Cephiro's.AS you point out Ceph pops into the thread and then disapears, we have less than 2 hrs to lynch, why do this? As town if you are suspected with a split majority, surely you are going to be put some effort into absolving yourself, immediately! My biggest concern is his contradictory nature, he goes on about how people show be provacative and push reads, and pressure people, and then labels them scummy when they do. From his reads it seems he likes newbies who are wishy-washy more than people willing to take a stand. Read his section on you and try and see why a townie would say that? He agrees with what you are doing, then labels you scummy because of it? He does this the whole game. Gives with one hands, takes with the other. He is happy casting doubt on people without any evidence but never actually takes a stand. He must swing by his neck until dead. Please cahnge your vote. For the next two hours I will pushing people to lynch him. | ||
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Probulous
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Liquid`Sheth
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Tunkeg
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I do agree that Ceph have been very non-commital and vague. And yes, he have some fillers, especially in the beginning. But I think that he have tried to make discussion with his posts. I do not like his defense against you though. I'll stick aroun abit longer to see what reads he posts before making my final decision (if it doesn't take to long). | ||
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Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
On January 06 2012 07:08 Cephiro wrote: As I already admit earlier, I did end up agreeing that the stats would not be useful in early game, which is why I didn't ramble on about them further. I do not agree with you on your claim that there would be NO reason for town to discuss the setup until information from night events. Why? Because even though we are all newbies, there may be people with more experience and others with less. This enables the more experienced players to ensure that if a total "idiot" townie would have got a power role, it wouldn't be misused. Here we disagree, I see no reason for town to try and tell blues what to do. The blue has no idea whether that person is truly town or a good scum, it doesn't help them either. Besides what you guy were speculating about is useless on Day 1. Fluff, smoke and mirrors. Regarding your joke, I took it up to fish for reactions and give you a poke. I wanted to see if you would try to explain yourself more in-depth, or just regard it as a joke and excuse yourself not needing to analyze it any further. Which was fine for me, since I knew that message had no real meaning, I got what I wanted. + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 10:11 CookieMaker wrote: Okay townies... we are presented with a dilemma. Disadvantage #1: There are few (if any) roles in this game, making identity confirmation scarce. However, that being said, the significant advantage we have over the mafia is their lack of killing power. They are only going to be able to snipe (at most, with any luck we got a doc) one person each night. This means the pressure is really going to be on them to avoid being lynched. I urge you, when voting time comes, do your homework, and proofread the homework of others carefully. Rash vote swings by emotional players only help the scum hide on their bandwagons. I am making an assumption here, but the other likely advantage we possess is the experience of a few key players. I'd be absolutely shocked if all three mafiasifarians were players who had (lots of) prior experience playing, but I'd also be surprised if they were three complete newbies. My impression is that one mafia will be a strong player and will deftly manipulate and lead the other two. So this is the first day. I elect #thefirstpersontocomeupwithaplan for mayor Why should I not support this post? In my opinion it provides a few basic, yet good points for people to remember. I do agree the latter part is just fluffy theorycrafting about someone leading the mafia, that doesn't really matter. To compare, this is your first post: + Show Spoiler + Probalous wrote on January 04 2012 10:12 I expect great things from those that have played before. It seems fair to me that they should be expected to contribute. Of course, everyone should be actively contributing, but I will be really disapointed if the guys who have played don't put in the effort. You know the cost and will be held accountable. With this in mind can the following people let me know how many (if any) games they have played? Jitsu Xeris Gretorp Gonzaw This is my first game and I intend to win. Come on town let the streets flow with red red blood! I bolded the single only thing in your post that wasn't just fluff talking. There's not really a big difference if the guys have played 0 games or up to 1-2. But fine, I'm not blaming you for wanting to know, since it may be part of your strategy on making reads. The difference is that my post had a purpose for being able to make reads, which when you asked I made clear. I even stated there that I was placing high expectations on those that had played before. I also wanted background to read. You know this but try and paste my first post as worse than Cookie's? On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote: Then comes a nice filler post + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 10:54 Cephiro wrote:+ Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 10:49 AnxiousHippo wrote: I'm pretty sure scum are sometimes referred to as Reds, I guess he was trying to make a pun? I don't think it was a slip. Myeah, You're probably right, since as I said, I wouldn't expect even a newbie mafia slip this early. Gotta be careful about puns though, they could be misunderstood. Even though it actually could be good scumbaiting, fishing for the player's reactions for better reads? Well, in any case we'll have to get some discussion going on. Or random accusations to get people to talk. (Or maybe I'm just too eager regardless of the fact I know most people in Europe won't be awake at a time like this.) I admit, this post doesn't have much content. If you didn't notice, you totally ignored my question (bolded) here. May I know for what reason? You are claiming me for having contentless posts at start, yet you should just see some of yours again. + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 10:21 Probulous wrote: There is no mayor and that is big assumption given this is a specifically newbie game with everyone on less than 3 games. To me, it is more reasonable that nobody is an assumed strong player and we will find out who are, as we go along. Of course previous experience is useful for setting activity expectations but deciding on scum targets based on possible non-random allocation is a big reach. I don't like it. Anyone that reads the rules knows there is no mayor. + The rest of the post is just your opinions about assumptions that are totally useless.[/quote] Face to palm. Of course everyone should know there is no mayor, that is why Cookie's post was so bad. He clearly didn't read the rules, I was just pointing it out. I was responding to his huge assumption that the game wasn't randomised and yes, stating my opinion that strong players will reveal themselves. No filler here. + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 11:05 Probulous wrote: Lovely maths, does it say anything For one Mafia cannot have a roleblocker with no town power roles. The only setup with a roleblocker is one where we have both a medic and DT. Secondly, the maths doesn't help us actually do anything, unless there is something I am missing. Thirdly a no-lynch is better than a miss-lynch. I will be more happy to not lynch someone than lynch someone I think is town. Yes it was a bad pun, I am not sure how it could be a scum tell. So much for trying to be entertaining You join in the so-called useless power role discussion, yet you are providing false information about the setups yourself. That could easily be trying mafia to mislead, but in all honesty, I think you just did a newbie mistake which could happen to anyone. My point being: Try not to be too eager to call others on mistakes you have done yourself. Granted, but the both of you seemed to believe that discussing setups helps. I am was trying to find out why. You couldn't convince me. + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 11:38 Probulous wrote: I agree with this. It is also why we need everyone to post. We can't catch scum if they say nothing. Sheth, you finished dinner yet? Gretorp, Cats are you guys around? Blurry and Cephiro, thanks for staying up so late. Were you talking about fillers...? This is not filler, this is pointing out to Sheth, Gretorp and Cats that they need to contribute and their absence will not go un-noticed. A point that Sheth acknowledged. Nothing but fairly decent? I don't get you... And after this, as you pressure me on the usefulness of the stats, I finally realize that they aren't that useful earlygame, so after this I stop theorycrafting until later on. Read it again. It is two sentences, the first saying that stats mean nothing and the second that the rest of your post is alright. + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 11:44 Cephiro wrote: Heh, such happens. But yeah, the statistics won't be very useful yet, but they are good to know anyway. (I study statistics at uni, and I love to try and apply them into everything.) I am quite sure it will become useful sooner or later, especially if we get the chance of backtracking roles. What I want to do today is covered in my post you already quoted. I would like us to be able to raise enough discussion and get a decent shot at who could be scum, since 2 mafia versus 8-9 townies (depending on if one dies N1 or not) would be an incredibly good situation for us. CookieMaker has a good point though, there is a 50% chance that there is a DT in the game, and buying him time to find the scum isn't a bad idea either. But we can't be certain if there is one or not, which why I'm still slightly favour for trying to lynch scum today, at least for now. We have quite a bit of time on us though, so if it seems like we can't get good reads on anyone and it's just a huge mess, we can still go for the no-lynch. Also, no problem for staying up late, I'm very bad at sleeping early and I'm so excited to play my first game of Forum Mafia! I will be going to sleep in 20 minutes or so though. Going on about the setup? Not really, I only mention the possibility of buying a possible DT more time, not going on about setups further than that. I am not contributing anything? I bold my statement which is along the lines of my original post. Point to something useful in that post. How on earth can you claim this post is just wishy-washy trash? The first part may be, but it's because I answered Gonzaw's question about how I seem to know about the game. Why should I have left it unanswered? Nope, there is no reason why I should've skipped that. So don't blame it as wishy-washy trash. Skipping genuine questions would just wake up suspicisions, and why would I want that as a townie? Also, of course I wouldn't do anything like that, what is that bullshit? I was the first person to share all my reads. You certainly weren't. Here is the most useful thing in that massive wall of text "If you have a hard time of trying to find out who is scum, then please do the town a favor and at least try to find some most-likely-town reads, since even that will help us narrow down the possible lynch" Something you hadn't done at that point. In fact despite your massive amount of posts before you left you hadn't actually said anything. You had provided soft thoughts and opinions on how people should play, but didn't back it up yourself. | ||
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Tunkeg
Norway1235 Posts
So my vote stays on CM/AKCT. With that I sign out for the night. | ||
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Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
On January 06 2012 07:11 Cephiro wrote: + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 00:16 Cephiro wrote: Time for a D1 analysis! Obviously I'll leave myself out, but if someone wants to know more about my opinions / ask why I'm in favor of something, please go ahead, discussion is what we need at the moment. Also, my apologies if I'm wrong with someone's gender, I'll make a mean generalization and expect everyone to be a male until noted otherwise. Player List: 1.CookieMaker For now I'm leaning slightly towards town on him, even though he is quite in-favour of the no-lynch possibility. But I think that may be due to the fact that it's his first game, and he may not have read through/followed many mafia games before. So I'm thinking he's rather be safe than sorry, but hopefully he'll realize the amount of information even a possible mislynch will give us, not even mentioning the huge lead we can get if we nail a mafia on D1. His posts could have slightly more actual content, but he's trying so for now he's okay to me. You do realize that different persons react differently under pressure? If we put 10 persons in a situation none of them has ever been in, I can assure you that they will not react the same way. And my thinking here is that CM would be the type of person that would react in such a way. I can admit that's quite a long shot, but it's my read. I at no point said I disagree with everything he said, so you are putting words into my mouth here. Bad Probulous! I have no problem with you giving CM a town read based on his newness, but why not others that have clearly contributed more. You have a soft spot for him for no apparent reason. He has given plenty of reasons for not being town whilst others, who have done much more, get painted scummy? Your inconsistency for no reason doe snot makes sense if you are town. However, if you are mafia it makes perfect sense. Either CM is scum (likely) or he is an easy newb to sway. Oh and the only thing CM was pushing was a no-lynch (which you diagreed with) and your first line is "For now I'm leaning slightly towards town on him, even though he is quite in-favour of the no-lynch possibility." + Show Spoiler + 2.Liquid`Sheth Hasn't posted anything useful aside from welcoming people and pressuring CatsnHats. Sure, pressuring at this point has to be done, but deciding to pick on one person for no real reason at this point and providing no other content? Hopefully he means well and just tries to make sure CatsnHats plays pro-town regardless of being new, I mean, Sheth does have 2 previous games of TL mafia as a base of experience. But for now, I am reading something between neutral or slightly scum. I dare you to prove me your innocence, so I'll be waiting for your morning post. Maybe he had done more in your opinion. My opinion was that the only useful thing he had done (at that point), was that he had only pressured the new player, and then letting him off the hook just like that. The way he did it semt scummy to me, got a problem with that? I am just telling my genuine reads, don't like them, convince me otherwise. I was the first one to show everyone all my cards at that point, because I wanted to raise discussion. On the other hand, all you did is sat back and waited for everyone to talk, and came in with a huge-ass post later yourself. You left the scene since you were satisfied of most people considering you pro-town, and you slipped under pretty much everyone's radar, not many people were wondering why you weren't taking part in discussion. And when you came with your huge scumpost, all you did was provide very short explanation why you think some people are town, then stating "These are just neutral to me, that's it", and then moving all the attention into your huge scumpost. Effectively focusing everyone on your scumpost, and turning the attention away from yourself, to ensure people don't change their townread about you, but concentrate on believing on your accusations. I had Sheth pegged as null at that point. I even highlighted that he had let Cats of the hook. The difference between you and me is I give him credit for actually doing something. He was the first to call someone out. Big plus. CM has contributed nothing except his insistence on a no-lynch over a mafia lynch  I certainly did not sit back on Day 1. You even mention that yourself. Bullshit indeed. Unlike scum, I don't really care if others thinks someone is town, I need to prove you are mafia. I wrote two text walls, of course I am going to focus on my scum cases. WTF? only scum want to point out the obvious. + Show Spoiler + 3.AnxiousHippo Doesn't seem to have any idea of what he should be doing, but I guess it's understandable since it's only his second game. I am hoping to hear more from you, since you haven't posted enough content to make any kind of read on you. Neutral. Nothing to comment here. + Show Spoiler + 5.Tunkeg Good forewarn on not being able to answer at the start of the game. Appareantly was on the winning side in his first game. He seems like an aggressive type of person, wanting to start the accusations and pressure to get some discussion going on. Thinks that D1 lynch is a must, but backs it up with some very good points. Took the first vote playing it relatively safely, voting for a lurker who hasn't posted yet. Clearly wants something to happen, but I am for now unsure if his method will be very successful. Neutral for now, but if you keep the activity up I should be able to get either a slight-town or slight-scum read on you soon. Safe move yes, but why should I not be allowed to say that aloud? You're not any better at this point, having posted far less content than me, waiting for your town-saving newspost. So you can't go aggressive on me for not voting at this point either, unless you admit your play was even worse. I am here also giving my genuine reads, I am not trying to undermine him in any way, I just posted my feeling about his methods. Should I have said bullshit such as "I think what he does is awesome", if I didn't really think so? I gave him a neutral read back then. I can go aggressive for you not voting because you call him out on his. Again he is actually doing somethinga nd you call him out for a safe play? You had even made that safe play. I did not call anyone out at that point because I was gathering evidence, once I had it I made pretty damn clear who I think is mafia and backed it up with a vote. You on the other hand cast suspicion on people for actually doing more than you have done. As for your reads, I can't see how a towns person would find someone placing the first vote as a bad thing. Especially when it is clearly to get people active (which you acknowledge). I find it even less plausible that you would place a newbie advocating a no-lynch over someone who takes the initiative to vote first. + Show Spoiler + 6.Jitsu Seems to want to actively participate, and most of his posts so far are convincing people to lynch on D1. Hasn't posted any actual content other than that though, so I will still stand on a neutral read. I am hoping to hear more content from you soon, I need to get more reads. He had posted against the no-lynch in general, and called out on Hippo and Cookie in _ONE_ post by this point, which wasn't enough for me to get a solid read on him. If I am unsure, why should I not admit it? I also wanted to make him post more, so I was trying to provoke him with my claim of "Hasn't posted any actual content other than that". Which he then replied he has his reasons for. Fine, give him a null read, but why give the person he called out for their stupidity as a town read? By simple process of elimination he has to be more town than Cookie. + Show Spoiler + 7.Xeris All I can say is, no content, not a good sign. Neutral. 8.Gretorp Same as above, neutral. Nothing to see here. + Show Spoiler + 9.Gonzaw Answering people's questions, trying to explain some of the basic stuff that should be understood, looks good to me. I like the way he pushed to know more about how I seem to know about the game, so he seems like he isn't taking anything for granted. Also suggesting pressure voting to get things going. I have a slight town-read here. Gonz and Tunkeg had very different playstyle in my opinion. Here you are putting words into my mouth again, which I am finding quote offending at this point, trying to make look worse than what I am. The first was a statement considering taking the first vote, and Tunkeg didn't encourage others to pressure vote at this point even though he did so himself, unlike Gonz who also suggested others to do that. There is a difference between doing something yourself and encouraging others to do it as well. The difference in their playstyle and between keeping the pressure voting to himself/encouraging it to everyone was the main reason I ended up reading Tunkeg as neutral and Gonz as town at this point. Here are the quotes in full For Tunkeg who gave a null read whilst questioning his methods. In bold is where you seem to be supporting him. Good forewarn on not being able to answer at the start of the game. Appareantly was on the winning side in his first game. He seems like an aggressive type of person, wanting to start the accusations and pressure to get some discussion going on. Thinks that D1 lynch is a must, but backs it up with some very good points. Took the first vote playing it relatively safely, voting for a lurker who hasn't posted yet. Clearly wants something to happen, but I am for now unsure if his method will be very successful. Neutral for now, but if you keep the activity up I should be able to get either a slight-town or slight-scum read on you soon. For Gonz who you gave a townie read. Answering people's questions, trying to explain some of the basic stuff that should be understood, looks good to me. I like the way he pushed to know more about how I seem to know about the game, so he seems like he isn't taking anything for granted. Also suggesting pressure voting to get things going. I have a slight town-read here. The only difference between Tunk and Gonz is that Gonz suggested others follow suit? I don't get it, in the first post you are saying that being aggressive and putting votes down is not going to be succesful, but then give Gonz more townie credit for suggesting others do it? Contradictory much? + Show Spoiler + 10.Blurry Seems to be in favour of no-lynching, wanting to stay on the safe side. Hasn't talked about anything but different possibilities if a mafia roleblocker exists. Not useful. (Okay, I'll have to admit that my statistics post at start wasn't necessarily very useful either, but I've been at least trying to post other content as well.) Neutral for now, but if you won't be posting more, I would lean on slightly scum. 11.Probulous Being very active at the start, and the play seems really town-favouring. Constantly asking for opinions and explaining his reasoning. I like his opinion on lynching, definitely wanting to lynch mafia but still keeping in mind the possibility of being careful incase we don't get any reads on D1. Hopefully we will have some scum reads that we can go for so no-lynch won't be necessary. Pressuring the people that should be on according to timezone but haven't posted. I would have to say you are my strongest town-read so far, I want to hear more of your opinions when you're back. Nothing to comment here. + Show Spoiler + 12.CatsnHats Being a new player, it's understandable that he's a bit confused, but you really need to learn that you CAN'T TRUST anyone but yourself. Whatever you think about the situation or someone's reads, say it, don't just agree or disagree randomly. I'm kind of worried of the chance that you are a townie whom the mafia would be able to talk around easily, but I hope you'll prove me wrong. (about the convincing part.) Or you could be mafia that is pretending to be a super-newbie town on his first game... who knows. But you're neutral so far. Start posting your opinions! I'll admit that I did not analyse CatsnHats in the same way as others, I ended up concentrating too much telling him what he should do in my opinion. This was partly affected by the fact that I still thought he was too wishy-washy even after Sheth's early pressure, and I wanted to make sure that for example Sheth wouldn't get a grip on him, since I had Sheth as slightly scum at this point. Sorry mate, your noose is tightening. | ||
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Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
Come on people choose your target between AKCT and Cephiro. | ||
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Liquid`Sheth
United States2095 Posts
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GreYMisT
United States6736 Posts
On January 06 2012 08:05 Probulous wrote: An hour before lynch and no-one is here? Come on people choose your target between AKCT and Cephiro. I'm fairly sure there are 2 hours until the deadline. | ||
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Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
Please, change your votes to one of either Cephiro or AKCT. Otherwise we end up with a no-lynch, which we all agree is terrible. Come on take a stand for town and lynch these scum! | ||
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Liquid`Sheth
United States2095 Posts
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Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
On January 06 2012 08:10 GreYMisT wrote: I'm fairly sure there are 2 hours until the deadline. Fucking timezones :p Apologies people, you should still be around. | ||
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Liquid`Sheth
United States2095 Posts
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Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
On January 06 2012 08:07 Liquid`Sheth wrote: I'm here. however I have to leave soon. Probulous sense were the only two active are you willing to go on to AKCT? I'd rather get a lynch then none and we seem to be the only two willing to switch. I prefer Cephiro but if you are leaving than I guess so. ##vote A Killer Cuppa Tea | ||
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Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
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