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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
Well here are my thoughts. The nice thing about the scum not shooting is that we can no lynch and have additional time to decide if we don't come to a clear consensus during the current 48 hour cycle.
bumatlarge
I had the strongest town read on bum going into today, mainly because he seems to be the player that cares the most. He was the only other person around at the deadline during the BC no-lynch and he was the most help at moving the votes from RoL to L on day three.
My biggest concern with bum is that he has been buddying up with multiple players, chez at the beginning of the game and myself the last few days. He seems to share the same motivations as myself however, so I'm still leaning town.
RebirthOfLeGenD
On December 23 2011 14:42 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: That would also explain why GM released all his reads. If you believe my analysis of this, then congrats. I am now confirmed town by GM's death, or at the very least, confirmed not mafia. If only he said specifically how his role worked, oh well.
On December 23 2011 14:39 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: He's apologizing in case he dies. I am guessing he has some sort of conscience where if he doesn't target a mafia then he dies. This post reads like a last will and testament because GM knew he was going to die. This could also explain why I didn't die or get notified of getting hit at all. His hit is only successful if its on a mafia, or he dies instead. This would also fit nicely with the theme of the game too.
On December 23 2011 15:16 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: More likely, the mafia was going to let GM kill himself/whoever else since it wasn't them, and as a result GM hit me and killed himself because I am town aligned.
I'm always weary of a player who says they are "confirmed town". On three different occasions, RoL attempts to explain that surviving GM's hit makes him town. LSB mentions that the suicide vig kills both targets if they are incorrect and GM makes no effort to correct him. If GM's role was really different, I'm almost certain that he would mention so, rather than leave us in the dark wondering why he is dead, but his target isn't. GM being roleblocked and shot or RoL being somehow protected are the only two scenarios that I think are likely.
From a balance perspective, if everyone one of us are vigs, I think it is extremely likely that every scum must have had a role as well. I would be really surprised if the scum team didn't have 1-2 vig roles. Otherwise, any town vig that successfully shoots immediately becomes confirmed town and mafia can do nothing to stop it. With 15 vig's, I would also be surprised if mafia didn't have a medic or busdriver or some other disruptive role. Town just has too much firepower for a single roleblocker to make the setup balanced. We already know that L somehow survived a shot on night two from Foolishness.
The only reason I'd be willing to consider RoL telling the truth about not receiving a hit is that L appeared so focused on pushing RoL on day three. At LYLO, it is much easier to push for the mislynch than to set oneself up for the late game, knowing that there are tons of potential vig shots left to worry about. It is possible that the reason there was no mafia resistance on day three was that both lynch candidates were scum. If that were the case, mafia would have to settle for the bus and make their play at the next LYLO.
The one other concern I have about RoL is that it really seems like he isn't paying close attention to what is going on. On day one, he votes for Chez as a placeholder and never returns to vote. On day two, he speculates about GM's role, only to be later informed that GM already has role claimed. On day four, he votes for a Sheth lynch, without even being aware that myself and Meapak had claimed to shoot syllo.
RoL, I'd like to hear a case on bum from you, rather than you imply he is scum based on eliminating myself and meapak as possible scum.
Meapak
Unfortunately, we only have a couple of things to go by since chezinu was gone for such a long time. I still don't understand why chezinu would fake-claim roleblock. Did he indicate his reasoning to you Meapak? The only reason I can think of would be if the scum team really did roleblock GM and he wanted to set up a RoL mislynch or if he wanted make the scum team have to worry about a town roleblocker.
The acronym vig is a strange role to claim, but with so many other better fake claims it is strange that would be the best he could come up with if he was lying. Compared to the spam vig, BM vig, liar vig, or suicide vig, an acronym vig doesn't really fit in the the responsibility theme of the game. Meapak claimed to shoot syllo based on his use of the word scummy, which isn't even an acronym. Chez's possible breadcrumb strengthens the roleclaim, however, like I mentioned with RoL, I don't think being a vig necessarily confirms you as town.
The biggest thing holding me back from voting Meapak is that I'm not sure I see the motivation for calling his shot, hoping that someone else would also claim the same shot. Meapak is the person I'd like to ask some real time questions to in particular. What time works best for you? I'll be awake up to around 1am EST.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 04 2012 05:31 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: In terms of real time questioning I'm around right now, I have something at 5pm PST until 9:30pm PST but if you're still awake after that we could talk then as well.
Alright, that works, just let me know when you're around later tonight. Also, would it be possible for you to post your current reads by then?
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
I would also like to add that batman isn't a real super hero.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
It wouldn't hurt. Maybe mafia has a limited number of shots on their roleblocker or something -_-
I'd still like to hear the cases promised by RoL and Meapak before we opt to end things early. If you couldn't no-lynch, are you still thinking Meapak bum?
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
I've got to head to bed. I'll have to catch you tomorrow Meapak. Gnight.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
lol well this is interesting. Everyone seems to be suspicious of someone else -_-
After reading your analysis Meapak, I really feel as if you had come to a conclusion before making the post. Here is my response:
On January 04 2012 17:35 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Right off the bat he starts putting soft pressure on Sheth. Super easy target this is like Sheth’s second game, it’s not gonna be hard at all to get a ball rolling against him if you want to.
That is how I start 75% of my games. I pick the newest player in the thread, vote for him, and pressure him into slipping up. I was hosting election mafia at the same time that Sheth was playing and he was actively posting in that game. In addition, he was streaming, but repeatedly mentioning that he was too sick to post. Did you take the time to read through Sheth's posts at the time I was bringing him up? This was not scum motivated.
On January 04 2012 17:35 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:In his subsequent posts he continues to call out BC, and Foolishness and Sheth. This pattern continues for the rest of the day until we get to the lynch. At this point, Kita keeps his wording vague. Using phrases such as “I'm leaning scum on GM and uncertain/null on LSB” Kita keeps his reads very muddy and uncertain. If either GM or LSB are lynched and flip town then you certainly aren’t going to be able to associate it with him. This is important in two ways, one because mafia never want to be in the center of attention, and the other is to distance himself from WBG who is one of the pilots of the day one lynch. Kita first votes for GM saying “I know it may look like an OMGUS, but this really isn't the GM town play that I'm used to, so that is where my vote is going for the moment.” With this enourmous vote of confidence (sarcasm) kita finishes this post by once again asking people if they would like to lynch foolishness. With 20 minutes left in the day, kita completes his distancing of himself from a lynch that would have killed a townie either way and votes for foolishness. In his post lynch thoughts, kita comes up with this gem “Chezinu or Foolishness obviously wasn't going to get lynched” -_- dot dot dot, guess who had his vote on foolishness at the end of the day. He then bashes RoL for putting a placeholder vote on chez but if he’s angry about worthless votes then there’s someone a lot closer to home who needs some attention 
Umm...Meapak? Have you read through day one? The reason the vote was switched to Foolishness was because LSB and GM had just counter-claimed each other has vig late into the night. I explained what I thought would be the best vig plan and moved my vote off the blue claim. I wasn't distancing myself, it was a blue claim. There is a big difference between the placeholder votes and what I did. My vote was moved 20 minutes before the lynch after I felt a no-lynch was the best option. It's not like I expected him to get a majority on him with so little time left. RoL never even commented on the LSB/GM situation, which was why I brought it up.
On January 04 2012 17:35 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Now we’re on to the next day, you’d think we’d be ready to hear more about foolishness however Kita punts on this one, “Looking back at his [foolishness’s] past games on day one, they all seem pretty similar, with minimal posting and a bit of trolling regardless of alignment. I'm still learning scum on him based on his general attitude and would probably be willing to lynch him today, but I'm having trouble coming up with a strong case against him from the current set of posts. As for his case against bugs, I'm leaning town on bugs at the moment. “ This is just terrible. Not only do we have continued shots at foolishness’s credibility, we also have kita calling WBG likely town after the LSB debacle. It’s actually not so much the lynch itself that kita is defending WBG against, it’s foolishness’s accusations which have a history of being chillingly accurate.
This is actually a pretty big deal right here. Foolishness was a huge threat to the scum team this game, he nailed half of it. Kita has spent the entire game trying to discredit him and here he is directly defending a confirmed scum, and not only that, a scum that foolishness named.
Yep, I was wrong about Foolishness/bugs, but that doesn't make me scum. Every player that is alive was wrong on day one and day two. At least I started generating results on day three/night three.
On December 24 2011 23:36 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 24 2011 19:25 syllogism wrote:On December 24 2011 15:13 kitaman27 wrote:On December 24 2011 04:26 syllogism wrote: If that's a waste of time, could you tell us who you would lynch? You placeholder voted yesterday and I don't see a single hint in your filter of you even implying who you find scummy Who do you find scummy syllo? So far today, the only thing you have done is show up to defend yourself about the change in play style comment. What do you think about prplhz? This looks exactly like his town play and would be pretty much the last person I would lynch today. I would like to lynch one of the people who have apparently decided not to play the game as by this point it's far more likely that they aren't just busy but rather are using it as a cover. Out of them BC would be my #1 choice. What exactly has he done so far that "looks exactly like his town play"? Could you be more specific? As for BC, what makes him different than another lurker, say GGQ?
On January 04 2012 17:35 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: So syllo (who is scum) shoots down his idea of lynching prplhz. He then suggests that he’d like to lynch a lurker and BC would be his number one choice. What does kita say? If you all guessed “he says yeah I’ve been calling BC scummy all game long let’s do it” you’re wrong. Instead he says “lol wut about GGQ.” -_-. Here’s what I think happened. Kita isn’t agreeing with syllo just to be on the safe side and it doesn’t appear that they are buddying. Kita read syllo’s post and decided to just deflect the topic about BC so he doesn’t get associated with syllo. This is the only explanation I can think of. A townie who hears someone agree with them generally goes “yeah me too, let’s look into it” a townie doesn’t know the alignment of who they’re talking to, all they know is that someone else thinks they’re right so why not explore this option. But Kita doesn’t do this. He instead casually distances himself with syllo by not fully engaging him.
You're looking at this completely the wrong way. Syllo at this point has been extremely conservative in giving us any of his reads. He mentions his number one read is BC and I'm pushing him to provide support or a case. How am I distancing myself when I vote for BC hours later?
On January 04 2012 17:35 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Seriously? He just flat out says that BC made the vig shot. Nothing like “oh he’s lying about the vigi shot, he’s only mentioning it now because it seems like a safe claim.” No arguments like that. Instead he’s gonna lynch him because he made a bad vig shot. That’s just plain pants on head retarded if you’re town, kita admits in his post that BC made the shot sooooo doesn’t that make him a confirmed townie? No one cc’d him. It’s just poor reasoning. A better argument against BC would have been that he’s lying about the vigi shot because that would at least mean there’s a possibility of being BC being scum.
However from a scum perspective this slip actually makes sense. Kita knows that BC made the shot and he can truthfully say that it was a stupid shot. He’s forgotten along the way however is that a) BC could be lying about the shot and b) if he’s not then the shot is confirmed. So as a tl;dr there are two problems with his reasoning. One is that he’s attacking BC from a non townie angle. The second is that if he does accept that BC is telling the truth (which according to his post he did) then he’s blatantly voting for someone who is confirmed (at least according to his logic).
This doesn't make sense. I'm scum because I have knowledge that BC shot GM? BC claimed shooting GM and there was no counter-claim. Nobody was disagreeing with this fact. Who else would have shot him? It was a bad shot because GM had blue claimed suicide vig and BC's reasoning for shooting him was that he would be continuously roleblocked. Why would BC be "confirmed"? There was no evidence at day two that all vig's are town, nor is there now. Earlier you mention how I'm trying to dodge the LSB mislynch, yet here I'm the 9th vote on the BC mislynch, requiring only one more hammer vote.
On January 04 2012 17:35 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:Show nested quote +On December 28 2011 14:03 kitaman27 wrote: Current Reads:
Probable scum team: Foolishness- Not relevant in either the day one or day two lynch. Brings up a single case, but doesn't push it at all. BC- Bad reasoning for the vig shot. Nearly all of his discission has been based on his vig shot, rather than talking about who he suspects as scum. prplhz- See previous post. L- Seems to be discussing a lot of things that aren't very relevant distracting town. Hasn't given us any solid analysis.
If not in the top four, the remaining are likely here (I know this is practically the rest of the town but activity has been really awful) Liquid`Sheth syllo Mr.Wiggles GGQ RoL Chezinu Look at his scum team. He’s got his favorite targets of the entire game, but look who else made the list (drum roll fanfare) L! now other than a briefly directed question, Kita has never called out L at all. This is an extremely random scum suspect. What is the motivation for putting L here? I admit that I don’t know how kita thinks, but my bet would be that he felt like he should put one mafia on his list to make it more believable. It’s the same reason syllo made his secondary list. The thing is, none of the town know that L is mafia so putting him there really serves no purpose except it plays into the inherent guilt of scum. It doesn’t matter that we don’t know L is scum, kita knows and in a subconscious attempt to make his list more believable he’ll put in L. It also gives L (and to a lesser extent syllo) something to go back to and quote if Kita gets killed at some point.
At this point RoL had already claimed his vig shot on BC. In addition, it is extremely likely that scum shot Foolishness for his bugs analysis. So here I am, posting my scum list with two players there are about to flip town 5 minutes later. That makes me look great.
As for you mentioning that I've never called out L, that is untrue. Looking through the thread, I'm probably the player that has brought up the most things prior to day three.
I called him out for his metric "trap", which didn't trap anyone. I mentioned that he was arguing about nonsense with his day 1 scum lynch %. I mentioned that he was bringing up jackal's reads, but not his own. I argued with him regarding his insistence that GM was lying about his roleblock.
You're punishing me for including scum on the list and punishing me for not including scum on the list :/
On January 04 2012 17:35 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Next up is Kita’s current claim to town fame, his lynch on L. Here’s the thing, he’s not actually the first person to go after L on day 3. Bum is actually the first person to call out L with his very first post of the day. Kita isn’t even the second person to mention L as possible scum, prplhz, and RoL call L scum. Even Syllo beats around the bush saying that “In terms of balance L is probably scum but I don’t think we should kill him today” (paraphrase( and this is the main reason why I killed syllo for posterity sake)). The pressure on L doesn’t stop there, Bum continues to call him out going so far as to flat out say that L is scum. Keep in mind, this has all happened before kita does his analysis on L. Even Sheth manages to call L mafia and since Chez was absent, that’s every player in the game who is not L or Kita who has called L scum or at least hinted at it on day 3. Bum starts the voting on L, everyone in the game has called L scum at least once except for kita.
How am I the last person to call him scum, if I just posted him in my scumlist before the day three flip? I commit myself to L as my lynch target when there are two town votes on RoL. I was the only person to write up an actual case against L. It's LYLO. Scum only need a single incorrect vote and they already have two. How in the world does it benefit me to move 2 town votes off RoL and onto L, when the game could be over otherwise? Scum would know there are tons of vig's still alive to worry about, so they might not even get an opportunity for another lylo. syllo came off looking awful from the lynch as one of the last people to vote and provides no reasoning for his vote. If this was a planned bus, wouldn't he try to gain some town cred as well, instead of looking like a defeated scum? I was not bussing L.
The last four paragraphs seem to be a summary of what you think happened, so I'm not sure there is anything I can say about that.
Looks like a no-lynch is going to be our best option today.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
7 hours of silence at lylo? -_-
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
Rules say you have to vote or you will be modkilled so I suggest we just one vote everyone bum.
I'll write one of your awful stories for you bum:
You suck. The end.
BM BM BM. RAGE. CAPS CAPS CAPS. No GG.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
Also, before I forget, ##Vote: RebirthOfLeGenD
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
Do you have any response to the points I brought up Meapak? The analysis really doesn't work.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
What happened to this bum? Meapak's analysis wasn't groundbreaking. He was essentially summarizing the game, to support a conclusion he came to before the post was written. Does your reasoning about why you thought I was town the entire game suddenly no longer apply? I'm not scum.
On January 03 2012 06:27 bumatlarge wrote:Show nested quote +On January 03 2012 05:37 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:On December 31 2011 04:22 bumatlarge wrote:On December 31 2011 03:59 Liquid`Sheth wrote:On December 31 2011 02:54 bumatlarge wrote: I doubt kita is scum. He has had extremely similar play to myself if you disregard the chez era. Sure L, could have been a bus, but if we were both scum, we could have simply unvoted without fear and won the game? If only one of us, then Chez obviously take precedence.
I never hinted at chez being confirmed town at all. Just the oposite. I just feel bad for meapak. He didn't hammer a vote on to L, which seems rather straightforward if there are already 5 townies on L. Anyone not pushing meapak tomorrow needs to share with the class. This is something that I disagree with. If you all took your votes off, there would have been a no-lynch on l. Then its 5-3 at night, you'll have two KP. However town now KNOWS who the 3 are. I didn't say this earlier, because I was hoping they would do this. So hopefully town has 1-2 shots of their own. So at the end of the night its probably 3-2 town ahead, which leads to a 3-1 town after the lynch and then 2-1, and town wins. Thats with only 1 kp vig shot. Just pointing out I think your logic is wrong bum, and you pointing that out as logic for why your not mafia is scary to me. Your reads are also a bit weird, why do you say "everyone else" : who cares. I care about each and every one of you. :/ Why would I care who is town? The object of the game is to oust scum, not figure out who is town. If they aren't on my radar, then I really don't see a reason to worry about them. Hopefully isn't a guaranteed town win. If town had no viable shots or mafia has more then 1 roleblocker, we would have got off scott free. And that doesn't explain how kita and I generated the L lynch. The L lynch would not have happened and you guys would have stuck around on the RoL wagon for the rest of the lynch. I don't think there was much reason to go through all this trouble and then have this conversation if we could have been having a post-game conversation. This is stupid. It is much easier to get a town read on someone then it is to get a scum read. By knowing who is TOWN you can narrow town your possibilities of who is actually scum. Scum are trying to not look scummy, but generally only that. They don't tend to jump to the other spectrum because that would start harming their win condition. So there is a huge purpose in recording and acknowledging your town reads, that way you can narrow down the gray area of mafia scumminess. Anyway bum, its pretty much me and you, which of the other two do you find scummy? One of them has to be hiding behind the hit, but its a tough decision. What do you think? I'm not certain on anyone right now. Kita has been constantly active this entire game, and reading his posts more, he has quite a few hiccups in his reads. He goes all over the place, calling Sheth, Foolishness, prphlz, BC, then actual scum in L. I think I need to read more into the L lynch to see if mafia were really "Fuck it, vote L", like syllo did as the 5th person on the wagon. Kita made his read on L very clear an hour after I voted L. Show nested quote +On December 29 2011 06:52 kitaman27 wrote: I'll write something up against L later today. This is a few hours before anyone even mentions L as a lynch target, and it was after a whole response to Sheth's kita analysis. Kita as scum could have just put his vote on Sheth after calling him scummy, but he decides to push L instead. If the scum team was Kita/L/syllo, I don't understand why kita didn't take the easy way out with pushing sheth which I proabably would have gotten behind or jumping on RoL. It explains sheth being roleblocked, if they feared him shooting Kita, but that's all I can reason out. I believe kita did shoot syllo, though Kita didn't mention that he had a strong read on syllo before the shot. Kita has not been posting scared, and all his actions have a very townie perspective, even though he only started getting results late-game, and then he posted everything I was thinking. I'm gonna say Town. Meapak/Chezinu has been a rough read, because a relevant part of the game was played by chezinu who I can't really decipher well, and I pride myself in being a good judge of random posters. Meapak's reads thus far in the game have been a claimed shot on syllo (there was no in-thread analysis, but there was only a night cycle for him to do this), and a sheth lynch, which all of us are guilty of. Other then that, I'm not mustering much townie points in his favor. The abscence of his vote at a lylo scum lynch; a non-refunded shot dual claim on, in my opinion, a less prominent scum; and a random Roleblock claim that has zero reason behind it. Suspicious shifty shit shapes scummy standards. I just need to review RoL again. I'm still hazy on the roleblock thing and what not. L went ballsdeep on RoL (sexy) the day he got lynched. I think we are basing RoL being confirmed based on his BC hit right? Hmmm. It does seem pretty straightforward if during the night you make me out to be superduper town and then shoot me because you aren't a roleblocker. If there was a scum medic, then that would explain both GM and Foolishness missing their hits. No, I am not content in throwing that in the trashcan. Mostly I'm certain Kita is town. If he's not he deserves to win. Kita, I think it's gonna be down to you deciding who is scum between Cheazpak and RoL. I'd probably go with Cheeseypak, because RoL being scum does require him to be a scum-vig (or some awful townie vig) and having a scum medic.
Other players bringing up their willingness to lynch L doesn't mean I'm scum. I'm one of those town that was after L for his scummy play. It's not like I brought up L for the first time during the day three lynch. I was questioning L's play the entire game. You were the first to actually vote L, but I was the only player to ever post an analysis against him. If it were a bus, why did syllo get completely off guard? If we were trying to town cred, why does syllo get left out of the bus and come off looking awful after he is one of the last to finally vote?
On December 22 2011 05:53 kitaman27 wrote: lol what you are you two even arguing about? How is the percentage of games that scum get lynched day one even relevant? Who cares what the percentages are on MS or how the last 20 games have gone? Even if it was really poor odds, you still try to find scum regardless.
L, your Metric post is nice and all, but who exactly did you catch? It's not a very good trap if you don't mention anyone that has fallen for it.
On December 23 2011 01:15 kitaman27 wrote: There were also several other people who disappeared from the discussion, such as L and BC.
On December 23 2011 14:39 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 23 2011 14:32 L wrote: GM seems to have lied about his target in order to lessen the chance that his shot would be medic'd/intercepted/roleblocked/whatevered. His target was probably one of his greens to throw off suspicion, so he probably didn't shoot Jackal. Palmar's shot was claimed.
This means GM either shot VisceraEyes or SamuelLJackson
I'm gonna go back and look through his post list to see if he gave any indication of suspicion with respect to either of them. If that was the case, why in the world would GM not inform us who he really shot after the 12:00 deadline? He had around 20 minutes to share who he really would have shot, during a time which the scum team wouldn't be able to change their actions. Are you purposely trying to shift focus away from RoL or something?
On December 23 2011 15:07 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 23 2011 15:01 L wrote:On December 23 2011 14:39 kitaman27 wrote:On December 23 2011 14:32 L wrote: GM seems to have lied about his target in order to lessen the chance that his shot would be medic'd/intercepted/roleblocked/whatevered. His target was probably one of his greens to throw off suspicion, so he probably didn't shoot Jackal. Palmar's shot was claimed.
This means GM either shot VisceraEyes or SamuelLJackson
I'm gonna go back and look through his post list to see if he gave any indication of suspicion with respect to either of them. If that was the case, why in the world would GM not inform us who he really shot after the 12:00 deadline? He had around 20 minutes to share who he really would have shot, during a time which the scum team wouldn't be able to change their actions. Are you purposely trying to shift focus away from RoL or something? @RoL,did you receive any notification of receiving a hit? Why wouldn't he? Withholding the information until the last second is a hyper pro-town move. Mafia don't need any additional information and his list is perfectly legible when you recognize that he lied about the RoL shot. That doesn't make sense at all. GM knows he is a suicide vig, so why would he leave it a mystery to who he really shot? He knows that it is highly likely that he will die if his shot is wrong. He wouldn't leave us in the dark knowing that he would likely never have a chance to reveal his true target. That wouldn't be a hyper pro-town move in the slightest.
On December 27 2011 13:35 kitaman27 wrote: @L, have you been looking through posts for three days straight or do you just not care? Why does it matter who jackal was suspicious of? I want to know who you are suspicious of.
On December 28 2011 14:03 kitaman27 wrote: L- Seems to be discussing a lot of things that aren't very relevant distracting town. Hasn't given us any solid analysis.
On December 29 2011 07:25 kitaman27 wrote: I think L is scum, either chez or RoL is scum, and either you or syllo is the third.
On December 29 2011 09:22 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 21 2011 13:48 L wrote: Why would I ever give a blue read like that? Because there are 6 people in this game that I consider substantially better than me at reading roles (its really never been my strong point), and given that 25% of the game or more is anti-town, the probability of anti-town having 1 or 2 of those people is excessively high.
List of people that I think are better than me at reading roles for future reference:
1. Foolishness 4. kitaman27 6. SamuelLJackson 13. Chezinu 16. BloodyC0bbler 17. LSB First off, when L is asked about fishing for blue roles, he responds that he did it because other players would have likely caught on. He then proceeded to list the six players better than him at role reading "for future reference". This list is completely irrelevant. He states that 25% of the game being scum means 1-2 of them on the list are probably scum. That is equivalent to selecting six random players and saying 1-2 are scum. He lists me and curu/sandro as being people with better blue reads than him, yet I've only ever played one game with him as a newbie and curu/sandro haven't even played any. He is likely just listing six of the most experienced players and immediately casting doubt on them from the start of the game. Show nested quote +On December 22 2011 00:47 L wrote: RE: Metric I was hoping to be able to say it when I woke up, but the thread's been confirming how I thought the game would roll out since I went to sleep, so I want the trap to sit out there a bit more. Give it another hour and a bit. Next L comes up with this extremely long post about some Metric he came up with for catching scum. He acts as if he set up a trap to catch scum. The one problem? He never mentions anyone that he actually caught. This reminds me exactly of my "trap" in LotR mafia, where I tried to explain that I was trapping scum with the knowledge that I was Radfield's mason partner, yet never actually brought up anyone that I caught. He then proceeds to argue with Palmar about the win rate of town on day one. This is a common theme of L's play this game. He is more than willing to argue about things that have absolutely no impact on the game, yet when it comes to scum hunting, he really doesn't seem to care at all. After that, L decides to give his reads on every single player in the thread. It looks as if he is making a contribution, but he never follows through with any of his reads. The weirdest point comes when L insists that GM lied about his vig target. This makes absolutely no sense. GM posted his shot target when night actions would have been locked. Scum couldn't react to his target, so there is no reason not to post who he was targeting. He argues with me and chaoser that keeping the town in the dark was a good thing, but in reality L is only distracting the town with misdirection. He cares more about figuring out the night actions than finding who is scum. He tries to get himself out of it by asking other people to present a valid explanation of night actions, while knowing that only scum have the ability to know how everything turned out. When pressed for delivering a scum suspect, he promises to contribute later, but never does. He says he was looking through jackals filter and explains who Jackal thought was scum, but never explains who he thinks is scum. He mentions me as a good vig target on night two, without ever bringing me up previously, with his only reasoning being that my posts are "careful". Overall, L is more than willing to talk about things that don't matter, yet has no interest in finding scum. ##Vote L
On December 29 2011 11:18 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 29 2011 09:55 L wrote: RE: Votes on me.
I just read through the thread, and the argument for shooting me is that someone crumbed a shot, then didn't shoot me, ergo I must be mafia.
This is odd for two very short reasons:
1) The exact same thing happened for RoL, who has a mountain of lies and bullshit to his name.
2) It would be very easy to RB foolishness if I was a townie to attempt to train on me the next day and secure the win.
So we're in a position in which mafia needs a SINGLE person from town to disbelieve an open and closed mafia case in front of them in order to defuse the lynch. Who steps up to the plate and tries to softpush me, then realizes he's an idiot and needs to go balls in because his case is terrible? bumatlarge. Who's his mafia cohort in this, a person who was ostensibly going to get vig hit tonight? Kitaman. Both of them have done relatively little for the entire game, both played very concilliatory day 1. Everything fits.
Welp, Kitaman/bumatlarge/RoL for mafia fits pretty well. If Sheth was mafia he'd probably have been replaced quite a while back. Thanks for outting yourselves, buddies. oh so now we're the scum team because we decided to vote for you? How about this one: Show nested quote +On December 22 2011 06:33 L wrote: 15. bumatlarge -- Huge content filled posts designed to spur discussion and an early vote. Very town. bum goes from huge content and very town to doing relatively little and playing very conciliatory? Do you have no comments on the case made against you rather than just calling us scum for bringing it up? You seem to try to pass it off as being the target of Foolishness's shot, but there has been much more than you never address.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 04 2012 01:51 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Then I look at Kitaman, he started the lynch on L, but that's not really the important part. Look at the mafias position going into that, it was a 5v3 situation and they needed one last mislynch, L was reaming into me hard trying to force my mislynch it doesn't REMOTELY look like he was setting himself up to get bussed, he was pushing for the end game right there. Instead Kita pushes his lynch and it gets flipped on L. I read him yesterday, but it would require an impeccable scum game from Kita for this read to be wrong and all the things he did be setting up the illusion of being town.
With those two reads I had the process of elimination and that leaves bumatlarge, I could only hope his filter didn't disagree with me, and it didn't. But I have work, so the rest of that comes later.
lol RoL, how quickly you change your mind, even though there has been absolutely no new evidence. Funny how you were suspicious of bum, yet when nobody decided to bite, you never followed through.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
You mention how bum's filter supported your idea that he was scum and you were going to post an analysis, yet now you're talking about how you can infer he is town.
Meapak/bum, you haven't really even commented on RoL, rather than just saying he is probably town. Could you please be more specific. If we mislynch me, the game is over so are either of you even willing to listen to my arguments? I'm town and if I'm going to lose my lynch virginity after 25 games, I at least want it to be as scum. I've gotten two of the four scum killed and proved that I'm active and care about town. What more do I need to do?
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
LOL kita must be scum! Meapak got shot! *wink wink*
Was that your hit bum or were you roleblocked again?
The most frustrating part is how much time I've spent on his game, compared to RoL who hardly seems to have read the thread. I've been keeping an updated spreadsheet of notes and connections, re-reading the thread multiple times, and openly sharing my reads. Yes, I wrong wrong the first two days, but eventually I came around and hit two in a row. I've helped kill 50% of the scum in this game. Is there anything that I can do to change either of your minds? I'll take the time to post one final analysis if you guys are willing to listen tomorrow.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
So you don't care, at LYLO? lol you are so not town.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
bum, look at it his way: Mafia has absolutely nothing to gain from not roleblocking you. RoL knows you are the only vig alive. With him being in such a strong position today, it makes little sense that he would risk being shot. Instead, he rb's you and goes for the safer mislynch today.
If you did indeed shoot RoL then at least you're willing to listen to a case if I wrote one? There must be a reason you decided to shoot RoL instead of me right?
Here are all the notes I have taken this game. It might not change your mind, but I'm desperate to prove that I'm really town. If you're the scum, please just let me know so we can save everyone some time. I'd be willing to hammer myself if that were the case. Otherwise, let me write up my final case tomorrow.
[*]Foolishness's filter [*]RebirthOfLeGenD's filter [*]wherebugsgo's filter [*]kitaman27's filter [*]syllogism's filter [*]SamuelLJackson's filter [*]Jackal58's filter [*]Liquid`Sheth's filter [*]GMarshal's filter [*]L's filter [*]Mr. Wiggles's filter [*]Palmar's filter [*]Chezinu's filter [*]chaoser's filter [*]bumatlarge's filter [*]BloodyC0bbler's filter [*]LSB's filter [*]GGQ's filter [*]prplhz' filter [*]VisceraEyes's filter
Liars: bum: made up responsibility points chez: "Ver is not one to try and eliminate bad play" LSB: Fake claiming role, as evidenced by GM's counter claim hydra: "At this point I'd rather lynch Chezinu or Foolishness", yet still votes for LSB even after mentioning how LSB's claim makes no sense as scum Sheth: Claims to be on sleeping drugs, yet posting in other thread and streaming. Proof? syllo: "Leaning scum based on my last read, I'll probably have time to reread him later today...never mentions me as scum in an earlier read, setting himself up for mislynch at lylo" Meapak: "Hi all, I just got to the part where chez claimed rb. That was false just for the record. Chez never got RB'd"
Foolishness (vig) ### -trolling, lists Ver as giant wall of text, supporting BC -"Ignore Chezinu, silence bugs, kill L" -Soft defends L for his vote on palmar -http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=295384¤tpage=28#541 -Lists four people that will call him out. Traitor attempting to contact scum team? -"Please remember, mafia are given a list of blues AND their role description" scumslip? -Spammy -"I'm fairly confident that if GM lied about who he shot then he breadcrumbed the real victim in his post." -Distractionary tactic, why would GM lie if he posted when mafia couldn't change their actions? -Posts analysis against bugs -Breadcrumbs L shot
RoL -Never returns after placeholder on chez, never comments on LSB -Mentions multiple times how GM's missed shot means he is confirmed, attempts to argue that GM's role is different than LSB's -Analysis against BC
bugs ### -analysis against LSB, posting confident -talking about SK -Supports LSB lynch even after claim -Soft defends BC -OMGUS on foolishness
syllo -soft defends GM -calls bugs case stupid but votes LSB anyways -prpl looks exactly like his town play -non-committal on L lynch, votes him when forced to by rest of town http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=295384¤tpage=52#1035 -"Leaning scum based on my last read, I'll probably have time to reread him later today"
sandro/curu ### -random bible quote: Ezekiel 25:17 traitor? -drops case on chez rather quickly, jumps on bug's lsb analysis -hard defends palmar -supports LSB lynch, but not with confidence -Mentions how LSB's claim makes no sense as scum, yet still wants to lynch him ***
jackal ### -shoots down chez policy lynch -questions chezinu about possible scum slip -jumps on LSB for "no day 1 vet lynch", doesn't address bugs anaylsis -wants to kill Foolishness. GMarshall GGQ for information -Strongly opposing the GM lynch for LSB instead, even though he calls GM scum
Sheth -soft defends hydra/chez -posting in election mafia, but not here -weak vote on LSB at the last minute -mentions that he is sick multiple times and unable to post, yet he is streaming sc2 -Incredibly forced analysis against myself. Brings up several irrelevant points. Only real analysis all game. -After providing analysis against me, votes RoL. Doesn't vote me at all. *** -Last on L lynch
GMarshal (Justice vigilante) ### -hydra policy vote -useless setup wall of text -says this game perfectly matches my scum meta and compares it to my town play mini mafia, however in mini mafia he was certain my play was scum as well -supports and defends LSB in the same post "Fuck, my head hurts. This game is making no sense to me right now, and I feel stupid. " -Not pushing his read on my confidently, pleas to have the day off and contribute in the future -Counterclaims LSB, but isn't willing to believe the roles are the same with different names. -Claims to shoot rol
L xxx -metric? Claims it is a trap, but never mentions who got trapped -weird vote on Palmar based on day 1 scum lynch % -read on every player in the game: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=295384¤tpage=23#457 -claims blue -Insists GM lied about his shot *** -After people question him, asks others to provide an explanation of what happened -Claims that GM leaving us in the dark is "pro-town" -Promises to share his scum suspects later. Instead provides jackal's suspects rather than his own -Mentions me as a vig target, without providing a strong explanation -Pushes RoL for lynch -Changes his read on bum, after calling him clear town earlier
Wiggles ### -first post wall of text -noncommital on LSB read, seems to go both ways http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=295384¤tpage=33#650 -Presents scenarios in large post, yet never posts which option he prefers -another useless scenario post
Palmar (black...likely traitor) ### -not actively pushing a lynch on day one like usual -votes GM for hydra comment -weird vote on L based on day 1 scum lynch % -Hard defends me. Comes off as overconfident
Chezinu -traitor? "mafia know all of the blue roles" scum slip? "mafia knows how the blue roles are triggered." -defends bum, mason? -votes palmar without any strong reasoning -roleblocked -Lied about roleblock???
chaoser (Liar vig) ### -Defends L for metric post -Shoots Palmar, possible accidental mafia hit? liar vig explanation doesn't provide necessary proof -Questions L after weird post that GM lied about hits
bum (good manner vig) -responsibility points??? -soft defends chez, mason? -unvotes hydra, seems unconfident -claims trigger/blue -supports GM's claim over LSB's, doesn't want to let both shoot -Wishy-washy analysis of wiggles, no real conclusion -only person around before lynch -timing of role claim is weird
BC (vig?) ### -pushes palmar for uninspired play/neutral topics after talking about rng -"was only able to shoot gm, and the possibility of him claiming "i got rbed" was far too likely if he was red. As such I fired." -Claims vig late into the cycle, poor reasoning
LSB (Overly righteous Vigilante) xxx -green read on bugs, despite LSB anaylsis -red read on hydra, weak reasoning "I'm against the Foolishness lynch simply because it's a bad idea to lynch a vet day 1" (mentions BC also should be exempt) -Claims blue....scum have names of blue roles
GGQ ### -Several walls of text
prpl (spam vig, shoots bugs) ### -random votes VE -Waking up in middle of night for lynch, votes lsb with little reasoning, after shooting down the analysis against him *** -Provides an analysis on BC, comes to the conclusion "hostile"...doesn't directly imply he is scum -jumps on the chezinu roleblock (knows he wasn't as scum?), isn't willing to consider 2 rbers if gm was rb'd?
VE ### -talking about SK -moving his vote around a lot, pressuring players -"SLJ, Foolishness, and chaoser." -Makes a case against GM, changes his vote, then immediately changes back -Doesn't want LSB to get a chance to shoot -Pushes suspicion on GM being traitor, which doesn't make sense with blue claim since a kp would be missing -Casts doubt on anyone that wasn't on LSB
Foolishness
Foolishness is considered by a large number of people to be TL's strongest town player. His reads are almost always dead on and he is willing to put in the necessary time as town.
This game, Foolishness has displayed nothing that would lead me to believe he cares about town. Most of his posts are one-liners, many which are spam or trolling. He is putting little effort into promoting a strong town environment. In Ver's analysis thread, he mentions how important day one is in establishing oneself as town. I haven't seen one example where he is trying to do so.
In his most recent game as scum (Pick Their Power Mafia), Foolishness displayed similar behavior. He invented his own post restriction and trolled the entire game. As maifa, I also have a habbit of trolling because it is so easy to do.
On December 21 2011 08:34 Foolishness wrote: List of people who have made a post that's a giant wall of text:
wherebugsgo bumatlarge Ver L
On December 21 2011 13:51 Foolishness wrote: I will support BC in everything at this point because he used the word asshattery.
Neither of these posts promote a good town environment. He is trying to be a comedian, rather than hunt scum.
As for the reads he does have, he provides little explanation. He mentions we should "Ignore Chezinu, silence bugs, kill L", but never explains why. Foolishness has made little attempt to pressure anyone into making a scum slip.
On December 22 2011 09:51 Foolishness wrote:##Vote: LSBI will be back before day ends to change if necessary. I'm still against but as always I'd rather lynch than no lynch. + Show Spoiler +Estimated number of people who will quote this post and call me mafia cause of it: 4 Estimated people: Palmar, Jackal, Curu/sandroba, kitaman
On December 22 2011 13:33 Foolishness wrote: ##Unvote: LSB ##Vote: GMarshal
aaawwwwwww yeah!
His votes provide absoultely no explanation at all. Foolishness really doesn't care who town lynches. All he cares about is his own survival. He makes sure that he doesn't upset anyone the entire day. He does post an analysis finally against bugs, but that is only when he realizes he will have to make a contribution or he will be lynched. In PTP, Foolishness made a similar case against myself.
##Vote Foolishness
Day 1 Vote Count
With 20 alive, it takes 11 to lynch.
Current votes:
LSB (12): wherebugsgo, SamuelLJackson, Jackal58, BloodyC0bbler, VisceraEyes, syllogism, -VisceraEyes, VisceraEyes, Palmar, Foolishness, bumatlarge, Liquid`Sheth, GMarshal, -Liquid`Sheth, GGQ, prplhz, -Foolishness, Mr. Wiggles
GMarshal (2): Palmar, -Palmar, GGQ, VisceraEyes, -VisceraEyes, kitaman27, Liquid`Sheth, -GGQ, Foolishness, Mr. Wiggles, -kitaman27, -Mr. Wiggles
L (1): chaoser, Palmar, -Palmar
Palmar (1): VisceraEyes, -VisceraEyes, VisceraEyes, Chezinu, bumatlarge, -VisceraEyes, L, -bumatlarge, -Chezinu
Foolishness (1): VisceraEyes, -VisceraEyes, kitaman27
SamuelLJackson (1): GMarshal, bumatlarge, Chezinu, VisceraEyes, -bumatlarge, -VisceraEyes, -Chezinu, LSB, -GMarshal, -LSB, Chezinu
Chezinu (1): RebirthOfLeGenD
VisceraEyes (1): prplhz, LSB, -prplhz
kitaman27 (0): GMarshal, -GMarshal
BloodyC0bbler (0): Mr. Wiggles, -Mr. Wiggles
Liquid`Sheth (0): kitaman27, -kitaman27
Voting ends at December 22 2011 14:00. (It's over.)
Day 2 Vote Count
With 14 alive it takes 8 to lynch.
Current votes:
BloodyC0bbler (7): RebirthOfLeGenD, Mr. Wiggles, Liquid`Sheth, prplhz, syllogism, bumatlarge, kitaman27
wherebugsgo (1): Foolishness
syllogism (1): chaoser
Foolishness (1): wherebugsgo
Mr. Wiggles (1): bumatlarge, -bumatlarge, GGQ
prplhz (0): kitaman27, -kitaman27
Chezinu (0): prplhz, -prplhz
Voting ends at December 27 2011 14:00. (It's over.)
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 06 2012 15:30 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: If you really want to talk about this more bum I suppose we can, but I don't feel like rehashing every point that's been made against kita, its redundant. You were all for killing him a page ago.
A town response to me posting all my notes from the entire game would be something along the lines of "oh crap, could bum be scum afterall?", instead you know that I'm probably not willing to lynch bum, so you focus on convincing him that I need to be killed without even mentioning them. You're scum RoL.
I'll try to post my final analysis first thing tomorrow morning.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
Glad you came around bum.
##Vote RebirthofLegend
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 07 2012 00:35 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: I was scum in this game, I kept it as something to post in case of emergency since its counter intuitive for mafia to need to keep a reads list, but keeping this list also allowed me to keep track of players I wanted to kill.
lol how is that relevant? That is just a bunch of reads you posted midway through day one in some random game you were scum. o.O
On January 06 2012 15:43 bumatlarge wrote: He also accuses RoL in that same post, but I'm interested in the hits. Mafia would have to have some real manpower to pull off these hits AND BC. RoL was claiming the BC hit forever. I know for a fact the last mafia is a roleblocker. Was RoL's positioning really such that they would have their roleblocker claim the hit that another mafia made? It doesn't fit right with me.
Three mafia kp + a failed suicide vig seems like the most logical explanation to me. Three kp seems somewhat high for a game with only 4+1 scum, but considering town has 15kp + the daily lynch, they certainly needed a way to keep up. There were also three unaccounted for kps on night one.
On January 06 2012 15:43 bumatlarge wrote: Though I'm still boggling over the GM > BC, then Fool > L. Both survived. The fuck. No one has come up with a better explanation then roleblocks.
We still have no idea what the roles of bugs, L, and syllo were. In a setup where all 15 town have a kp, from a balancing perspective, a scum medic really seems likely. We already know L somehow survived Foolishness's hit and I think it is likely that is how RoL survived the GM hit.
By far the weirdest thing in the thread is L's insistence that GM lied about his shot. It makes absolutely no sense considering GM would have been able to announce his true shot when the scum team would be unable to change their actions. I think his true motives must have been to distract the thread from questioning how RoL would have survived the hits. RoL mentions three different times how GM's shot on him confirms him as town. He argues that GM's role was different than LSB's and that GM wouldn't kill his target if they were town. This also doesn't make sense, since GM wouldn't leave out details of his role after counter-claiming LSB, knowing that he would likely die that night.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 07 2012 02:01 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Kita, we now know as fact that Chezinu was never roleblocked, which means there was a roleblock and chances are it was mafia RBing Gmarshal to set him up for the next days lynch when he failed to follow through on his promise to kill someone. They didn't count on BloodyC0bbler killing Gmarshal instead. This explains where that roleblock went and why I didn't die and has been realized as a possibility since Meapak said Chezinu wasn't really roleblocked. Now we KNOW Chezinu is town and we can infer that the roleblock was actually on GM the same time BC hit him, hence why I am still alive and GM is dead.
These are your own words RoL. This post has nothing to do with chezinu claiming roleblock. You don't even reference it:
On December 23 2011 15:16 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: GM Couldn't of been roleblocked because then he wouldn't of been dead. So if he faked his hit to mislead mafia then changed it last minute to try to kill me and he was roleblocked then he wouldn't of killed himself, which means the mafia would of had to RB + hit him, which means there would be 4 hits unaccounted for, which is bad and probably not possible since we know someone claimed killing palmar, that would leave 4 other hits in mafia hands.
More likely, the mafia was going to let GM kill himself/whoever else since it wasn't them, and as a result GM hit me and killed himself because I am town aligned. This would leave 3 hits unaccounted which could be an SK kill and 2 mafia, or just mafia kills. Much more reasonable.
Either way, we can be certain that GM was NOT roleblocked, otherwise it leaves an absurd amount of KP unaccounted for, so he must of killed himself. Any other explanation would be elaborate as shit and confusing therefore, we defer to Occam's and we have our answer.
Funny how you seem to use Occam's Razor to support whatever scenario is convenient at the time.
There are 15 town kp in this game. Occam's Razer, mafia has a medic.
Ver gave us a medic in Personality when there were only like 3-4 vigs.
Both your explanation and my explanation both leave Wiggles/GGQ mysteriously dead. Don't discredit mine, just because I can't prove there was a suicide vig. That part is irrelevant to both our arguments.
As for that closed casket post, page 19, you posted it on day one after updating it. Your partly finished analysis has no impact on my alignment.
Surviving the day one hit, that isn't even the only reasoning against you. All game long, you've only been posting when it benefits you. You announce your scum candidate is bum at lylo and that his filter supports your case. After realizing that you're never going to be able to get 3 votes to lynch him, you instantly drop it and move on to me. You say you didn't read the whole L lynch in context, yet your original reasoning for thinking I was town was the context of the L lynch!
Then I look at Kitaman, he started the lynch on L, but that's not really the important part. Look at the mafias position going into that, it was a 5v3 situation and they needed one last mislynch, L was reaming into me hard trying to force my mislynch it doesn't REMOTELY look like he was setting himself up to get bussed, he was pushing for the end game right there. Instead Kita pushes his lynch and it gets flipped on L. I read him yesterday, but it would require an impeccable scum game from Kita for this read to be wrong and all the things he did be setting up the illusion of being town.
There was a reason mafia absolutely had no push on day three. It is because both their members were up for lynch! L went into day three expecting to get you lynched and win out the game on day four and five. You were the most logical choice for a bus since you had that extra baggage from the GM hit. The problem? They were caught off guard when L got pushed instead. syllogism is the person whose posts hurt them the most:
On December 29 2011 07:07 syllogism wrote:Show nested quote +On December 29 2011 07:05 bumatlarge wrote:On December 29 2011 07:01 syllogism wrote: Bum how does the scum team consisting of role blockers make sense considering that only one person has claimed RB so far and last night there were 6 deaths, of which only one was claimed. None of the living players claimed RB, so even assuming foolishness was RBed, that's three missing role blocks.
Given the weird n1 kills I think it's more likely that scum also has some sort of KP roles that punish "bad" play or something similar. A scum medic also makes more sense than more than 1 RBer due to the missing RB claims. Two role blockers is possible but lynching people or clearing people based on that assumption in LYLO is very weak/scummy. Ok, thats sounds cool. So now L is scum then. Very possible, but nothing in above is related to that. Why are you making these bad logical leaps in LYLO?
On December 29 2011 19:20 syllogism wrote: Sheth: That's not "proof" at all, but I agree with L being the safest lynch today
##vote L
Here he throws some suspicion on bum for bringing L up. He knows he can't flat out deny that L is scum, but he doesn't want L lynched or else he would actually post reasoning, rather than saying "its very possible". Even up until the moment that he has to agree to vote L, syllo still shows signs of frustration and comes out looking awful. If me and L had planned to bus L ahead of time, why in the world is syllo not involved? His indifference to the lynch is one of the main reasons which led me to shoot him.
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