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Student Mafia (New/Newish players welcome) - Page 44

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ey215
Profile Joined June 2010
United States546 Posts
December 09 2011 00:32 GMT
#861
On December 09 2011 09:26 Grackaroni wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 04 2011 15:01 ey215 wrote:
On December 04 2011 14:42 Velinath wrote:
On December 04 2011 14:20 Blazinghand wrote:I want to hear what you have to say. Don't flop around like you did in your first post. Be a man. Do the right thing.

On December 04 2011 14:36 BroodKingEXE wrote:
Hey Blazinghand sorry if I came around to be a little shady.
I was just trying to feed into the conversation, about the voting. How do we want to plan the lynching with the time zone difference? I feel like this will be a major roadblock as it will be 12 AM for our friends in the UK.

As for my earlier comment I just wanted to say hi. Did not mean to get off on the wrong foot


Hi,

this also feels noncontributive. I feel like what Blazinghand was looking for was more of an opinion on one of the matters we've been discussing in the thread. If you wouldn't mind, I'd like to hear what you have to say about the Lynch All Lurkers policy discussed a couple of pages back. Adding questions but no answers isn't really posting content, at least not in my eyes.


I'd just like to point out that Blazinghand is calling out people for giving their opinions. I guess if it's not groundbreaking then it's fluff. While I agree with you that just posting a question isn't enough, giving an opinion that agrees with others shouldn't be considered not participating.

If we're going to win, the town needs to work together and discouraging newer townies to post by slapping them around when they do is probably not the right answer.

As you can see I can take a random quote from your filter and make the same case against you quite easily.

You are saying that Blazinghand is attacking newbies by asking them for their opinions.
You make an argument that it is perfectly fine for you to sheep other people. (which you have done all game long)
He is slapping newbies around and discouraging others from posting - you are saying he is anti-town.


Ah yes, but the case made about me isn't about me laying the groundwork for future lynches. It's about how I'm apparently scummy. The case I made about you/xtfftc is about how the groundwork for the case about me was actually laid out in Day 1 when I was looking like a much bigger threat to the mafia than I am now.

And it's not a hypothetical, it was a prediction. It's also a way to stop you from doing to him what is being done to me without being accountable for it..
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9856 Posts
December 09 2011 00:33 GMT
#862
On December 09 2011 09:24 ey215 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 09 2011 09:21 Grackaroni wrote:
On December 09 2011 09:17 ey215 wrote:
On December 09 2011 09:10 Grackaroni wrote:
On December 09 2011 08:22 ey215 wrote:
On December 07 2011 03:43 Grackaroni wrote:
THINGS TO CONSIDER

NOBODY IS A CONFIRMED TOWNIE
I've become concerned with BH's presence in this game.
He tells people to vote for Adam for discrediting him ----> people vote for Adam
He tells people to switch to EB for not voting -------> people switch to EB
He tells people to switch to BByte ------> BByte is lynched
He tells people to not talk at night ------> Mine is one of the first posts that's not his.

I voted for 2/3 of these people; I feel like maybe I wouldn't have put my vote on them if BH had not suggested to.
The town, including myself, have started sheeping him and treating him like he is a confirmed town.
The last newbie game was lost because of too much trust in 2 players, 1 of them ended up being scum.

I don't know if it's been different for other people, but the main reason I started believing BH was definitely town was his activity level throughout the game. He seemed to be actively scum hunting at the start accusing people, but in reality at the start of the game all he did was jump on people who didn't post yet because they were busy/didn't know the game had started.

I believe that scum would more likely want to draw less attention to themselves but It's possible that BH is actually just a good player that posts and accuses a lot regardless of his alignment.

I feel like we pushed the "easy" lynches of Adam/BByte and EB (before he started analyzing) This is fine for day1, but come day2 we better be more willing to look thoroughly into the players who have been active and are "contributing". (the chance that scum wouldn't have a single active player goes beyond unlikely...)

My point about BH is this : He has a lot of town cred and has gained a very strong position as a trusted townie and a town leader role. Remember to remain cautious of him and that there are no truly confirmed townies. Everyone should be having their own opinions for the lynch tomorrow, not following BH's.

My last point : ONLY MAFIA KNOW THEIR REASONS FOR KILLING A PLAYER

let me explain, in this hypothetical situation I have been shot by the mafia. When you look through my filter do not use things I said as main parts of analysis because you cannot truly know why they would have killed me.

When you looked through my filter after my hypothetical death, do not use arguments such as:
OMG, HE WAS SUSPICIOUS OF TUNKEG THEREFORE TUNKEG IS MAFIA TRYING TO PROTECT HIMSELF!
HE WAS SIDING WITH XSKSC, THEREFORE XSKSC IS MAFIA TRYING TO PAINT HIMSELF MORE TOWN!
BH KILLED HIM BECAUSE HE SAID HE FELT BH WAS GETTING TOO MUCH POWER AND THAT TOWNIES WERE FOLLOWING HIM BLINDLY!

just to be clear, I am not saying that BH is mafia, I'm just saying that he is not a confirmed town and that nobody should follow him blindly. IF things continued to go the same way as they went day1 and BH was mafia, there would be no hope for town to win.




By the way BH, if they manage to get enough votes flipped onto me to lynch me today then I expect them to come after you Day 3. The post above lays the groundwork for it. Not too committal, but planting that seed of doubt.

So you would rather follow BH to the end of the earth? a LOT of people sheeped him day1 which is just too dangerous. People were considering him a confirmed townie and if he was scum the game would be hopeless.


BH or you? I take BH.

I wasn't pointing out whether you were right or wrong on the sheeping. I was pointing out that there was a groundwork being laid to get him lynched if there is a doctor and they managed to save him (if he's town) tonight.

Don't use me against him, if you think he's mafia go make your case.

I didn't say one time in that quote that BH was mafia. Is this the only post you have for me "laying out my groundwork to lynch him after I fail to shoot him."

BH is amazing at making analysis posts and secured a spot early as the town leader. Naturally people began to sheep him which I felt was dangerous because there are no confirmed towns.

Build a real case against me. What you are saying is hypothetical, that my post telling people to make their own opinions and to not sheep BH because there are no confirmed townies is groundwork for lynching him.


Real case on you posted above. You saw it, wrote it off and moved on. Not my fault you're choosing to ignore it.

You're right I did see your "real case". You said that I was asking other's opinions in order to incriminate people.
You said that I posted something against you around the same timeframe that xtfftc did.
then you made up some bullshit about me plotting to lynch BH day3.
Blazinghand *
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States25558 Posts
December 09 2011 00:33 GMT
#863
On December 09 2011 09:25 ey215 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 09 2011 09:19 Blazinghand wrote:
Nonononono there's no "taking" anyone. People here will make cases and do their best to support them. It's also possible that Grackaroni and I are both town, you know. There's no following anyone to the end of any earth. Please gentlemen go about your business and form reasoned opinions ._.


Don't worry, I know where my vote's going Day 3.


Well, you don't know. Maybe someone will present a good case for someone else, and you, being an open-minded and reasonable individual, will consider it! Or maybe your target will get shot by the mafia! Things happen.
When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back.
TL+ Member
Blazinghand *
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States25558 Posts
December 09 2011 00:35 GMT
#864
On December 09 2011 09:33 Grackaroni wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 09 2011 09:24 ey215 wrote:
On December 09 2011 09:21 Grackaroni wrote:
On December 09 2011 09:17 ey215 wrote:
On December 09 2011 09:10 Grackaroni wrote:
On December 09 2011 08:22 ey215 wrote:
On December 07 2011 03:43 Grackaroni wrote:
THINGS TO CONSIDER

NOBODY IS A CONFIRMED TOWNIE
I've become concerned with BH's presence in this game.
He tells people to vote for Adam for discrediting him ----> people vote for Adam
He tells people to switch to EB for not voting -------> people switch to EB
He tells people to switch to BByte ------> BByte is lynched
He tells people to not talk at night ------> Mine is one of the first posts that's not his.

I voted for 2/3 of these people; I feel like maybe I wouldn't have put my vote on them if BH had not suggested to.
The town, including myself, have started sheeping him and treating him like he is a confirmed town.
The last newbie game was lost because of too much trust in 2 players, 1 of them ended up being scum.

I don't know if it's been different for other people, but the main reason I started believing BH was definitely town was his activity level throughout the game. He seemed to be actively scum hunting at the start accusing people, but in reality at the start of the game all he did was jump on people who didn't post yet because they were busy/didn't know the game had started.

I believe that scum would more likely want to draw less attention to themselves but It's possible that BH is actually just a good player that posts and accuses a lot regardless of his alignment.

I feel like we pushed the "easy" lynches of Adam/BByte and EB (before he started analyzing) This is fine for day1, but come day2 we better be more willing to look thoroughly into the players who have been active and are "contributing". (the chance that scum wouldn't have a single active player goes beyond unlikely...)

My point about BH is this : He has a lot of town cred and has gained a very strong position as a trusted townie and a town leader role. Remember to remain cautious of him and that there are no truly confirmed townies. Everyone should be having their own opinions for the lynch tomorrow, not following BH's.

My last point : ONLY MAFIA KNOW THEIR REASONS FOR KILLING A PLAYER

let me explain, in this hypothetical situation I have been shot by the mafia. When you look through my filter do not use things I said as main parts of analysis because you cannot truly know why they would have killed me.

When you looked through my filter after my hypothetical death, do not use arguments such as:
OMG, HE WAS SUSPICIOUS OF TUNKEG THEREFORE TUNKEG IS MAFIA TRYING TO PROTECT HIMSELF!
HE WAS SIDING WITH XSKSC, THEREFORE XSKSC IS MAFIA TRYING TO PAINT HIMSELF MORE TOWN!
BH KILLED HIM BECAUSE HE SAID HE FELT BH WAS GETTING TOO MUCH POWER AND THAT TOWNIES WERE FOLLOWING HIM BLINDLY!

just to be clear, I am not saying that BH is mafia, I'm just saying that he is not a confirmed town and that nobody should follow him blindly. IF things continued to go the same way as they went day1 and BH was mafia, there would be no hope for town to win.




By the way BH, if they manage to get enough votes flipped onto me to lynch me today then I expect them to come after you Day 3. The post above lays the groundwork for it. Not too committal, but planting that seed of doubt.

So you would rather follow BH to the end of the earth? a LOT of people sheeped him day1 which is just too dangerous. People were considering him a confirmed townie and if he was scum the game would be hopeless.


BH or you? I take BH.

I wasn't pointing out whether you were right or wrong on the sheeping. I was pointing out that there was a groundwork being laid to get him lynched if there is a doctor and they managed to save him (if he's town) tonight.

Don't use me against him, if you think he's mafia go make your case.

I didn't say one time in that quote that BH was mafia. Is this the only post you have for me "laying out my groundwork to lynch him after I fail to shoot him."

BH is amazing at making analysis posts and secured a spot early as the town leader. Naturally people began to sheep him which I felt was dangerous because there are no confirmed towns.

Build a real case against me. What you are saying is hypothetical, that my post telling people to make their own opinions and to not sheep BH because there are no confirmed townies is groundwork for lynching him.


Real case on you posted above. You saw it, wrote it off and moved on. Not my fault you're choosing to ignore it.

You're right I did see your "real case". You said that I was asking other's opinions in order to incriminate people.
You said that I posted something against you around the same timeframe that xtfftc did.
then you made up some bullshit about me plotting to lynch BH day3.


Use quotes. Cite where he did this, and you'll seem super reasonable and well-thought out rather than angry and arguing.


On December 09 2011 09:32 ey215 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 09 2011 09:26 Grackaroni wrote:
On December 04 2011 15:01 ey215 wrote:
On December 04 2011 14:42 Velinath wrote:
On December 04 2011 14:20 Blazinghand wrote:I want to hear what you have to say. Don't flop around like you did in your first post. Be a man. Do the right thing.

On December 04 2011 14:36 BroodKingEXE wrote:
Hey Blazinghand sorry if I came around to be a little shady.
I was just trying to feed into the conversation, about the voting. How do we want to plan the lynching with the time zone difference? I feel like this will be a major roadblock as it will be 12 AM for our friends in the UK.

As for my earlier comment I just wanted to say hi. Did not mean to get off on the wrong foot


Hi,

this also feels noncontributive. I feel like what Blazinghand was looking for was more of an opinion on one of the matters we've been discussing in the thread. If you wouldn't mind, I'd like to hear what you have to say about the Lynch All Lurkers policy discussed a couple of pages back. Adding questions but no answers isn't really posting content, at least not in my eyes.


I'd just like to point out that Blazinghand is calling out people for giving their opinions. I guess if it's not groundbreaking then it's fluff. While I agree with you that just posting a question isn't enough, giving an opinion that agrees with others shouldn't be considered not participating.

If we're going to win, the town needs to work together and discouraging newer townies to post by slapping them around when they do is probably not the right answer.

As you can see I can take a random quote from your filter and make the same case against you quite easily.

You are saying that Blazinghand is attacking newbies by asking them for their opinions.
You make an argument that it is perfectly fine for you to sheep other people. (which you have done all game long)
He is slapping newbies around and discouraging others from posting - you are saying he is anti-town.


Ah yes, but the case made about me isn't about me laying the groundwork for future lynches. It's about how I'm apparently scummy. The case I made about you/xtfftc is about how the groundwork for the case about me was actually laid out in Day 1 when I was looking like a much bigger threat to the mafia than I am now.

And it's not a hypothetical, it was a prediction. It's also a way to stop you from doing to him what is being done to me without being accountable for it..


Quotes. use quotes. cite where he's acting like this and you'll seem super reasonable and not flamey.
When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back.
TL+ Member
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9856 Posts
December 09 2011 00:39 GMT
#865
On December 09 2011 09:25 ey215 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 09 2011 09:19 Blazinghand wrote:
Nonononono there's no "taking" anyone. People here will make cases and do their best to support them. It's also possible that Grackaroni and I are both town, you know. There's no following anyone to the end of any earth. Please gentlemen go about your business and form reasoned opinions ._.


Don't worry, I know where my vote's going Day 3.

Also I take it from this that you are voting me because we have been arguing
Was there something in my defense that really tipped you off, if so do share.
On December 09 2011 08:17 ey215 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 09 2011 07:45 Grackaroni wrote:
On December 09 2011 07:18 ey215 wrote:
Ok, I was going to save this for tomorrow as I didn’t think I was going to need it today and was still doing the research, but Tunkeg’s probability lynching forced my hand.

For the record, I do think Tunkeg is onto something.

I’ll start that by saying that I understand why he left himself out, but it would be wise of the town to remember that he too voted for BByte and needs to be looked at just as strongly as the rest of us. I’m not making that case here, mainly because after reading his stuff I don’t think he’s scum, but some other eyes on it would be nice. The only thing that has me concerned about him at the moment is the way he’s grabbed onto xttfc’s case against me, then managed to put my name twice into his lists on the probability lynches and then mildly pushed BH to look at it deeper, therefore potentially getting a bandwagon rolling.

For today, I’m not that worried about it but look in the future how these cases and lynches of townies developed.

I have come to believe that the mafia started laying the groundwork for future cases on townies in Day 1 so as not to appear to just be switching from one day to another. At the time that this case started against me, I was looking like I’d be a counter weight to BH and therefore might have some persuasive power around here. It has not turned out that way, but remember the context when this starts.

At that point in Day 1, BH and I had our argument, got over it and moved on, then xtfftc comes around and decides that based off of being defensive and to make sure to hammer that point home cherry picks some quotes out of context and uses them six hours later to plant his seeds.

+ Show Spoiler +
On December 04 2011 21:18 xtfftc wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 04 2011 13:20 Velinath wrote:
I would like to add that if you see what you think is a lie, it's probably best to bring it to the attention of the thread

Policy or not, everyone should be doing this. Mafia are bound to slip and they will also be reluctant to talk about their teammates slipping, so this is very pro-town behaviour. If you see something you consider to be a lie, mention it. You might be wrong but it's important anyway. And it will also help differentiate between townies who are hunting for mafia and the mafia players who are trying not to attract attention.

(I still think that pushing for heavy policies is pro-mafia though, it takes the pressure away from them by allowing them to follow some simple guidelines)


Show nested quote +
On December 04 2011 14:36 BroodKingEXE wrote:
Hey Blazinghand sorry if I came around to be a little shady.
I was just trying to feed into the conversation, about the voting. How do we want to plan the lynching with the time zone difference? I feel like this will be a major roadblock as it will be 12 AM for our friends in the UK.

As for my earlier comment I just wanted to say hi. Did not mean to get off on the wrong foot

Town doesn't benefit from last minute lynches, mafia does. If you see someone suddenly pushing for a lynch near the deadline when there isn't enough time for a proper discussion, it is very likely that this person is mafia.
Show nested quote +
On December 04 2011 14:55 ey215 wrote:
As for you're statements about lynching all lurkers unless someone gives you a "DAMN GOOD REASON', well having a scumread is one. Am I good with lynching a lurker today, sure but let's not go talking about how you've got a good scum read on anyone that's posted once.

Fuck, I can say you've hardly posted anything but baseless accusations therefore you're scum just trying to get the town fighting among themselves. Not to mention you're trying to get a bandwagon started on someone for either not posting because they're asleep or because of some assumed fluff.


Dude, no need to be so defensive. Blazinghand is trying hard to organise the town. I don't agree with some of his ideas but they are stuff to be discussed. There is absolutely no need for a townie to react like you did. Blazing's play so far is great.


Then he gives this gem:

ey215 is my strongest mafia read for now though... Having to call out someone on scummy behaviour two times just a few hours into a mini game doesn't bode well for that person.


If I’m such a strong read, why didn’t you push to lynch me at all Day 1? I put forth the theory that no one responded really latched onto the idea, and you didn’t want to go out of your way to stand out that early. You’ve been setting up this Day 2 attempt at a lynch since yesterday.

Also, while this is going on we get Grackaroni coming around and starts by giving this read on me:

Ey215: He took a post from blazinghand calling him a lurker and acted very defensively. I believe that this is a trait that would be found among Mafia or Town. (I mean nobody wants to get lynched ) I think he is someone who I should watch more but he is contributing so he should not be lynched today.


Then starts subtlety leading Tunked to me:

On December 05 2011 05:05 Grackaroni wrote:
@Tunkeg: also since you're here. I am curious why you painted Ey215 town in your reads. He is somebody that I am unsure of right now and all you explained is that "his posts so far says town to me. He is balancing out Blazinghand."

Tunkeg doesn’t really bite:

On December 05 2011 05:30 Tunkeg wrote:
On December 05 2011 05:05 Grackaroni wrote:
@Tunkeg: also since you're here. I am curious why you painted Ey215 town in your reads. He is somebody that I am unsure of right now and all you explained is that "his posts so far says town to me. He is balancing out Blazinghand."


To be honest I did go abit wild with the coloring. I should perhaps have used more leaning town/leaning scum reads i my post. Anyways the reason I put ey215 as town was the feel I got from his posts. He posts his view about town-environment, he states his view about the risk of bandwagoning and that sort of stuff. All of which I consider pro-town posting.

What I didn't incorperate in my analysis when posting the list was the defensive attitude he initially took against Blazinghand. Still my read on him is leaning town


So they let it go for the day and don’t really try to get the bandwagon going. Now look what happens today, we get the case against me followed almost immediately by a post by Grackaroni trying to get BH to take a look:

On December 08 2011 07:49 Grackaroni wrote:
Ey215 has been on every one of your bandwagons so far from Adam----> EB -----> BByte -------> JayBrundage.
@BH : Why is Ey215 one of your main town reads? I think he is just sheeping your vote.


The beauty of those two posts by Grackaroni is that they allow him to steer how other people my look at someone and get them to make the case on me, instead of he having to do it himself. He can let BH get or not get a bandwagon going, and no one remembers the actual post that started him down that road.

I believe these two have been working together from the outset and the only side that could coordinate like that is mafia.

Now, again I’d like to see xtfftc respond to some accusations about him without just brushing it off as trolling as he did with EB. Since EB was conveniently killed overnight, he wasn’t here to defend himself and xtfftc was let off scot free. Again, killing EB made no sense unless he was on to at least one scum in that list. I currently think it was two, Jay and xtfftc.

I know you're asking yourself this townies, "But wait! You can't prove any of this unless you're town and we're not sure that you are!". Yes, I know that's why I expect that if the lynch goes through tonight you'll be able to use some of this on Day 3.

So, my scum list:

jaybrundage, xtfftc, Grackaroni

Enjoy.

For reference the first quote you took from me is very old


That's why I said it "starts" with it. We're not accountable for what we said on day 1?
.
Show nested quote +
Your mafia team consists of the 1 person that everyone agrees is scum, Xtfftc, who voted and made a case against you. And me, who has been suspicious of you.

You have a bunch of quotes from me asking people questions. I sincerely want to know why players like Tunkeg and BH continually think that you are town.

Upon question Tunkeg's reads seem more inconsistent, his opinion of xsksc changed during a time when xsksc didn't even post. If anyone I was siding more with xsksc than xtfttc, look at Tunkeg/xsksc argument. I was more sure that Tunkeg was suspicious, xttftc voted for xsksc.

From what I understand the basis of your case is that I am asking people questions to make them look more suspicious.
I am simply asking questions to gain more information.

This doesn't go as far as OMGUS, but perhaps you should consider that just because people seem to be against you, does not mean they are scum.





Go out and give your own analysis instead of "asking questions". My case is not that you're against me, but that you and xtfftc are working together and have been from the start. I will grant you that my read on him is stronger than you, but of the people currently alive I think you three are the scum.

Nice way of calling it OMGUS while trying not to make it appear you're not. Go refute my points other than, "I'm just asking questions."

You'll notice that the other person to actually vote for me is not one I listed as mafia, but you instead and I'm still bothered by how flippantly certain people have been in not using the information we have from last nights killing.

Here you said that your read on xtfftc was stronger than your read on me.
You can't seriously argue that my defending myself has changed your reads that easily.
I think you are tunneling too hard.
ey215
Profile Joined June 2010
United States546 Posts
December 09 2011 00:39 GMT
#866
On December 09 2011 09:33 Blazinghand wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 09 2011 09:25 ey215 wrote:
On December 09 2011 09:19 Blazinghand wrote:
Nonononono there's no "taking" anyone. People here will make cases and do their best to support them. It's also possible that Grackaroni and I are both town, you know. There's no following anyone to the end of any earth. Please gentlemen go about your business and form reasoned opinions ._.


Don't worry, I know where my vote's going Day 3.


Well, you don't know. Maybe someone will present a good case for someone else, and you, being an open-minded and reasonable individual, will consider it! Or maybe your target will get shot by the mafia! Things happen.


Trying to get me to hedge?
Blazinghand *
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States25558 Posts
December 09 2011 00:40 GMT
#867
On December 09 2011 09:39 ey215 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 09 2011 09:33 Blazinghand wrote:
On December 09 2011 09:25 ey215 wrote:
On December 09 2011 09:19 Blazinghand wrote:
Nonononono there's no "taking" anyone. People here will make cases and do their best to support them. It's also possible that Grackaroni and I are both town, you know. There's no following anyone to the end of any earth. Please gentlemen go about your business and form reasoned opinions ._.


Don't worry, I know where my vote's going Day 3.


Well, you don't know. Maybe someone will present a good case for someone else, and you, being an open-minded and reasonable individual, will consider it! Or maybe your target will get shot by the mafia! Things happen.


Trying to get me to hedge?


Hedging =/= open-minded.

So, who are you planning on voting for on Day 3?
When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back.
TL+ Member
ey215
Profile Joined June 2010
United States546 Posts
December 09 2011 00:40 GMT
#868
On December 09 2011 09:39 Grackaroni wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 09 2011 09:25 ey215 wrote:
On December 09 2011 09:19 Blazinghand wrote:
Nonononono there's no "taking" anyone. People here will make cases and do their best to support them. It's also possible that Grackaroni and I are both town, you know. There's no following anyone to the end of any earth. Please gentlemen go about your business and form reasoned opinions ._.


Don't worry, I know where my vote's going Day 3.

Also I take it from this that you are voting me because we have been arguing
Was there something in my defense that really tipped you off, if so do share.
Show nested quote +
On December 09 2011 08:17 ey215 wrote:
On December 09 2011 07:45 Grackaroni wrote:
On December 09 2011 07:18 ey215 wrote:
Ok, I was going to save this for tomorrow as I didn’t think I was going to need it today and was still doing the research, but Tunkeg’s probability lynching forced my hand.

For the record, I do think Tunkeg is onto something.

I’ll start that by saying that I understand why he left himself out, but it would be wise of the town to remember that he too voted for BByte and needs to be looked at just as strongly as the rest of us. I’m not making that case here, mainly because after reading his stuff I don’t think he’s scum, but some other eyes on it would be nice. The only thing that has me concerned about him at the moment is the way he’s grabbed onto xttfc’s case against me, then managed to put my name twice into his lists on the probability lynches and then mildly pushed BH to look at it deeper, therefore potentially getting a bandwagon rolling.

For today, I’m not that worried about it but look in the future how these cases and lynches of townies developed.

I have come to believe that the mafia started laying the groundwork for future cases on townies in Day 1 so as not to appear to just be switching from one day to another. At the time that this case started against me, I was looking like I’d be a counter weight to BH and therefore might have some persuasive power around here. It has not turned out that way, but remember the context when this starts.

At that point in Day 1, BH and I had our argument, got over it and moved on, then xtfftc comes around and decides that based off of being defensive and to make sure to hammer that point home cherry picks some quotes out of context and uses them six hours later to plant his seeds.

+ Show Spoiler +
On December 04 2011 21:18 xtfftc wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 04 2011 13:20 Velinath wrote:
I would like to add that if you see what you think is a lie, it's probably best to bring it to the attention of the thread

Policy or not, everyone should be doing this. Mafia are bound to slip and they will also be reluctant to talk about their teammates slipping, so this is very pro-town behaviour. If you see something you consider to be a lie, mention it. You might be wrong but it's important anyway. And it will also help differentiate between townies who are hunting for mafia and the mafia players who are trying not to attract attention.

(I still think that pushing for heavy policies is pro-mafia though, it takes the pressure away from them by allowing them to follow some simple guidelines)


Show nested quote +
On December 04 2011 14:36 BroodKingEXE wrote:
Hey Blazinghand sorry if I came around to be a little shady.
I was just trying to feed into the conversation, about the voting. How do we want to plan the lynching with the time zone difference? I feel like this will be a major roadblock as it will be 12 AM for our friends in the UK.

As for my earlier comment I just wanted to say hi. Did not mean to get off on the wrong foot

Town doesn't benefit from last minute lynches, mafia does. If you see someone suddenly pushing for a lynch near the deadline when there isn't enough time for a proper discussion, it is very likely that this person is mafia.
Show nested quote +
On December 04 2011 14:55 ey215 wrote:
As for you're statements about lynching all lurkers unless someone gives you a "DAMN GOOD REASON', well having a scumread is one. Am I good with lynching a lurker today, sure but let's not go talking about how you've got a good scum read on anyone that's posted once.

Fuck, I can say you've hardly posted anything but baseless accusations therefore you're scum just trying to get the town fighting among themselves. Not to mention you're trying to get a bandwagon started on someone for either not posting because they're asleep or because of some assumed fluff.


Dude, no need to be so defensive. Blazinghand is trying hard to organise the town. I don't agree with some of his ideas but they are stuff to be discussed. There is absolutely no need for a townie to react like you did. Blazing's play so far is great.


Then he gives this gem:

ey215 is my strongest mafia read for now though... Having to call out someone on scummy behaviour two times just a few hours into a mini game doesn't bode well for that person.


If I’m such a strong read, why didn’t you push to lynch me at all Day 1? I put forth the theory that no one responded really latched onto the idea, and you didn’t want to go out of your way to stand out that early. You’ve been setting up this Day 2 attempt at a lynch since yesterday.

Also, while this is going on we get Grackaroni coming around and starts by giving this read on me:

Ey215: He took a post from blazinghand calling him a lurker and acted very defensively. I believe that this is a trait that would be found among Mafia or Town. (I mean nobody wants to get lynched ) I think he is someone who I should watch more but he is contributing so he should not be lynched today.


Then starts subtlety leading Tunked to me:

On December 05 2011 05:05 Grackaroni wrote:
@Tunkeg: also since you're here. I am curious why you painted Ey215 town in your reads. He is somebody that I am unsure of right now and all you explained is that "his posts so far says town to me. He is balancing out Blazinghand."

Tunkeg doesn’t really bite:

On December 05 2011 05:30 Tunkeg wrote:
On December 05 2011 05:05 Grackaroni wrote:
@Tunkeg: also since you're here. I am curious why you painted Ey215 town in your reads. He is somebody that I am unsure of right now and all you explained is that "his posts so far says town to me. He is balancing out Blazinghand."


To be honest I did go abit wild with the coloring. I should perhaps have used more leaning town/leaning scum reads i my post. Anyways the reason I put ey215 as town was the feel I got from his posts. He posts his view about town-environment, he states his view about the risk of bandwagoning and that sort of stuff. All of which I consider pro-town posting.

What I didn't incorperate in my analysis when posting the list was the defensive attitude he initially took against Blazinghand. Still my read on him is leaning town


So they let it go for the day and don’t really try to get the bandwagon going. Now look what happens today, we get the case against me followed almost immediately by a post by Grackaroni trying to get BH to take a look:

On December 08 2011 07:49 Grackaroni wrote:
Ey215 has been on every one of your bandwagons so far from Adam----> EB -----> BByte -------> JayBrundage.
@BH : Why is Ey215 one of your main town reads? I think he is just sheeping your vote.


The beauty of those two posts by Grackaroni is that they allow him to steer how other people my look at someone and get them to make the case on me, instead of he having to do it himself. He can let BH get or not get a bandwagon going, and no one remembers the actual post that started him down that road.

I believe these two have been working together from the outset and the only side that could coordinate like that is mafia.

Now, again I’d like to see xtfftc respond to some accusations about him without just brushing it off as trolling as he did with EB. Since EB was conveniently killed overnight, he wasn’t here to defend himself and xtfftc was let off scot free. Again, killing EB made no sense unless he was on to at least one scum in that list. I currently think it was two, Jay and xtfftc.

I know you're asking yourself this townies, "But wait! You can't prove any of this unless you're town and we're not sure that you are!". Yes, I know that's why I expect that if the lynch goes through tonight you'll be able to use some of this on Day 3.

So, my scum list:

jaybrundage, xtfftc, Grackaroni

Enjoy.

For reference the first quote you took from me is very old


That's why I said it "starts" with it. We're not accountable for what we said on day 1?
.
Your mafia team consists of the 1 person that everyone agrees is scum, Xtfftc, who voted and made a case against you. And me, who has been suspicious of you.

You have a bunch of quotes from me asking people questions. I sincerely want to know why players like Tunkeg and BH continually think that you are town.

Upon question Tunkeg's reads seem more inconsistent, his opinion of xsksc changed during a time when xsksc didn't even post. If anyone I was siding more with xsksc than xtfttc, look at Tunkeg/xsksc argument. I was more sure that Tunkeg was suspicious, xttftc voted for xsksc.

From what I understand the basis of your case is that I am asking people questions to make them look more suspicious.
I am simply asking questions to gain more information.

This doesn't go as far as OMGUS, but perhaps you should consider that just because people seem to be against you, does not mean they are scum.





Go out and give your own analysis instead of "asking questions". My case is not that you're against me, but that you and xtfftc are working together and have been from the start. I will grant you that my read on him is stronger than you, but of the people currently alive I think you three are the scum.

Nice way of calling it OMGUS while trying not to make it appear you're not. Go refute my points other than, "I'm just asking questions."

You'll notice that the other person to actually vote for me is not one I listed as mafia, but you instead and I'm still bothered by how flippantly certain people have been in not using the information we have from last nights killing.

Here you said that your read on xtfftc was stronger than your read on me.
You can't seriously argue that my defending myself has changed your reads that easily.
I think you are tunneling too hard.


It's not, the vote's going to xtfftc.
Blazinghand *
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States25558 Posts
December 09 2011 00:42 GMT
#869
Grack what's your read on xtfftc?
When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back.
TL+ Member
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9856 Posts
December 09 2011 00:42 GMT
#870
On December 09 2011 08:22 ey215 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 07 2011 03:43 Grackaroni wrote:
THINGS TO CONSIDER

NOBODY IS A CONFIRMED TOWNIE
I've become concerned with BH's presence in this game.
He tells people to vote for Adam for discrediting him ----> people vote for Adam
He tells people to switch to EB for not voting -------> people switch to EB
He tells people to switch to BByte ------> BByte is lynched
He tells people to not talk at night ------> Mine is one of the first posts that's not his.

I voted for 2/3 of these people; I feel like maybe I wouldn't have put my vote on them if BH had not suggested to.
The town, including myself, have started sheeping him and treating him like he is a confirmed town.
The last newbie game was lost because of too much trust in 2 players, 1 of them ended up being scum.

I don't know if it's been different for other people, but the main reason I started believing BH was definitely town was his activity level throughout the game. He seemed to be actively scum hunting at the start accusing people, but in reality at the start of the game all he did was jump on people who didn't post yet because they were busy/didn't know the game had started.

I believe that scum would more likely want to draw less attention to themselves but It's possible that BH is actually just a good player that posts and accuses a lot regardless of his alignment.

I feel like we pushed the "easy" lynches of Adam/BByte and EB (before he started analyzing) This is fine for day1, but come day2 we better be more willing to look thoroughly into the players who have been active and are "contributing". (the chance that scum wouldn't have a single active player goes beyond unlikely...)

My point about BH is this : He has a lot of town cred and has gained a very strong position as a trusted townie and a town leader role. Remember to remain cautious of him and that there are no truly confirmed townies. Everyone should be having their own opinions for the lynch tomorrow, not following BH's.

My last point : ONLY MAFIA KNOW THEIR REASONS FOR KILLING A PLAYER

let me explain, in this hypothetical situation I have been shot by the mafia. When you look through my filter do not use things I said as main parts of analysis because you cannot truly know why they would have killed me.

When you looked through my filter after my hypothetical death, do not use arguments such as:
OMG, HE WAS SUSPICIOUS OF TUNKEG THEREFORE TUNKEG IS MAFIA TRYING TO PROTECT HIMSELF!
HE WAS SIDING WITH XSKSC, THEREFORE XSKSC IS MAFIA TRYING TO PAINT HIMSELF MORE TOWN!
BH KILLED HIM BECAUSE HE SAID HE FELT BH WAS GETTING TOO MUCH POWER AND THAT TOWNIES WERE FOLLOWING HIM BLINDLY!

just to be clear, I am not saying that BH is mafia, I'm just saying that he is not a confirmed town and that nobody should follow him blindly. IF things continued to go the same way as they went day1 and BH was mafia, there would be no hope for town to win.




By the way BH, if they manage to get enough votes flipped onto me to lynch me today then I expect them to come after you Day 3. The post above lays the groundwork for it. Not too committal, but planting that seed of doubt.

Also, this kind of post is exactly what you were accusing me of earlier, you said that I was asking people questions to try to make them make cases for me.

You're case on me is shitty and is exactly the same thing that you did here. You take some random quote, make up a hypothetical situation that I am plotting to lynch BH and that I am a threat to him; Perhaps you are hoping that he will build a case on me for you? That way you can continue to sheep his vote as usual
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9856 Posts
December 09 2011 00:43 GMT
#871
On December 09 2011 09:42 Blazinghand wrote:
Grack what's your read on xtfftc?

lol sorry I've been too busy arguing with Ey215, ill look into him now.
BroodKingEXE
Profile Blog Joined November 2011
United States829 Posts
December 09 2011 00:45 GMT
#872
For anyone who thinks I am mafia, because jay is. Think about it, if I kill off jay I would only have one other teamate left, if you think I am mafia for this reason I would be killed as well. This leaves one mafia member to convince everyone else that they are not mafia. The mafia that you are suspecting me to be in would have to have a player so experienced he could take out 6 other players over the course of three days. How does this make sense?
Playing Protoss = Opponent owned
ey215
Profile Joined June 2010
United States546 Posts
December 09 2011 00:45 GMT
#873
On December 09 2011 09:42 Grackaroni wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 09 2011 08:22 ey215 wrote:
On December 07 2011 03:43 Grackaroni wrote:
THINGS TO CONSIDER

NOBODY IS A CONFIRMED TOWNIE
I've become concerned with BH's presence in this game.
He tells people to vote for Adam for discrediting him ----> people vote for Adam
He tells people to switch to EB for not voting -------> people switch to EB
He tells people to switch to BByte ------> BByte is lynched
He tells people to not talk at night ------> Mine is one of the first posts that's not his.

I voted for 2/3 of these people; I feel like maybe I wouldn't have put my vote on them if BH had not suggested to.
The town, including myself, have started sheeping him and treating him like he is a confirmed town.
The last newbie game was lost because of too much trust in 2 players, 1 of them ended up being scum.

I don't know if it's been different for other people, but the main reason I started believing BH was definitely town was his activity level throughout the game. He seemed to be actively scum hunting at the start accusing people, but in reality at the start of the game all he did was jump on people who didn't post yet because they were busy/didn't know the game had started.

I believe that scum would more likely want to draw less attention to themselves but It's possible that BH is actually just a good player that posts and accuses a lot regardless of his alignment.

I feel like we pushed the "easy" lynches of Adam/BByte and EB (before he started analyzing) This is fine for day1, but come day2 we better be more willing to look thoroughly into the players who have been active and are "contributing". (the chance that scum wouldn't have a single active player goes beyond unlikely...)

My point about BH is this : He has a lot of town cred and has gained a very strong position as a trusted townie and a town leader role. Remember to remain cautious of him and that there are no truly confirmed townies. Everyone should be having their own opinions for the lynch tomorrow, not following BH's.

My last point : ONLY MAFIA KNOW THEIR REASONS FOR KILLING A PLAYER

let me explain, in this hypothetical situation I have been shot by the mafia. When you look through my filter do not use things I said as main parts of analysis because you cannot truly know why they would have killed me.

When you looked through my filter after my hypothetical death, do not use arguments such as:
OMG, HE WAS SUSPICIOUS OF TUNKEG THEREFORE TUNKEG IS MAFIA TRYING TO PROTECT HIMSELF!
HE WAS SIDING WITH XSKSC, THEREFORE XSKSC IS MAFIA TRYING TO PAINT HIMSELF MORE TOWN!
BH KILLED HIM BECAUSE HE SAID HE FELT BH WAS GETTING TOO MUCH POWER AND THAT TOWNIES WERE FOLLOWING HIM BLINDLY!

just to be clear, I am not saying that BH is mafia, I'm just saying that he is not a confirmed town and that nobody should follow him blindly. IF things continued to go the same way as they went day1 and BH was mafia, there would be no hope for town to win.




By the way BH, if they manage to get enough votes flipped onto me to lynch me today then I expect them to come after you Day 3. The post above lays the groundwork for it. Not too committal, but planting that seed of doubt.

Also, this kind of post is exactly what you were accusing me of earlier, you said that I was asking people questions to try to make them make cases for me.

You're case on me is shitty and is exactly the same thing that you did here. You take some random quote, make up a hypothetical situation that I am plotting to lynch BH and that I am a threat to him; Perhaps you are hoping that he will build a case on me for you? That way you can continue to sheep his vote as usual


No, my case on you is...

I believe these two have been working together from the outset and the only side that could coordinate like that is mafia.


That I may find further evidence of it is not trying to get anyone to do anything.
Blazinghand *
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States25558 Posts
December 09 2011 00:46 GMT
#874
BKEXE I'm sorry, could you rephrase that? I want to know what assumption it is you're addressing.
When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back.
TL+ Member
Blazinghand *
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States25558 Posts
December 09 2011 00:48 GMT
#875
On December 09 2011 09:45 ey215 wrote:
No, my case on you is...

Show nested quote +
I believe these two have been working together from the outset and the only side that could coordinate like that is mafia.


That I may find further evidence of it is not trying to get anyone to do anything.


Who is "these two"

Also, if you find further evidence of it, please do present it! I'd be glad to investigate as well.
When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back.
TL+ Member
Adam4167
Profile Joined June 2011
Australia1426 Posts
December 09 2011 00:51 GMT
#876
On December 09 2011 09:45 BroodKingEXE wrote:
For anyone who thinks I am mafia, because jay is. Think about it, if I kill off jay I would only have one other teamate left, if you think I am mafia for this reason I would be killed as well. This leaves one mafia member to convince everyone else that they are not mafia. The mafia that you are suspecting me to be in would have to have a player so experienced he could take out 6 other players over the course of three days. How does this make sense?


I think you guys backed yourself into this shitty position by being too comfortable on day 1. Your team mate, who has done a much better job of staying hidden thus far, is probably reaming you in the QT for dumping the monumental task of killing 6 townies on his own, with 2 blues (if they live that long) still in the mix.

Lets not get ahead of ourselves though. Jay hangs in 20 minutes (tick tock..).
Blazinghand *
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States25558 Posts
December 09 2011 00:55 GMT
#877
On December 09 2011 09:51 Adam4167 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 09 2011 09:45 BroodKingEXE wrote:
For anyone who thinks I am mafia, because jay is. Think about it, if I kill off jay I would only have one other teamate left, if you think I am mafia for this reason I would be killed as well. This leaves one mafia member to convince everyone else that they are not mafia. The mafia that you are suspecting me to be in would have to have a player so experienced he could take out 6 other players over the course of three days. How does this make sense?


I think you guys backed yourself into this shitty position by being too comfortable on day 1. Your team mate, who has done a much better job of staying hidden thus far, is probably reaming you in the QT for dumping the monumental task of killing 6 townies on his own, with 2 blues (if they live that long) still in the mix.

Lets not get ahead of ourselves though. Jay hangs in 20 minutes (tick tock..).


Yeah It's pretty clear JB isn't town. If he were, he would have posted his final analysis by now.

After he flips scum I'll spend some serious time doing a monster analysis of everyone before the night ends. There's a 1/3rd chance we don't have a doctor, and if that's the case, the mafia know the setup, so I'm gonna get shot. They'll have BKEXE do the shot so the watcher learns nothing. That being said, I'm crossing my fingers and hoping we have a doctor.
When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back.
TL+ Member
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9856 Posts
December 09 2011 00:56 GMT
#878
Xtfftc spent a lot of time building the case on Ey215. Before that he has not been doing much scum hunting and posted a lot of things that basically agreed with a lot of people.

The one good thing is that from the start of the game he was showing that he was suspicious of Ey215, so at least his case scum target remained consistent with who he was suspicious of.

His timing is wierd though, he held off on posting the case until it seemed like Jay was completely fucked. If Jay flips scum it is definitely possible that he was trying to divert votes off of Jay, because this was his first agressive case.
ey215
Profile Joined June 2010
United States546 Posts
December 09 2011 00:57 GMT
#879
On December 09 2011 09:48 Blazinghand wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 09 2011 09:45 ey215 wrote:
No, my case on you is...

I believe these two have been working together from the outset and the only side that could coordinate like that is mafia.


That I may find further evidence of it is not trying to get anyone to do anything.


Who is "these two"

Also, if you find further evidence of it, please do present it! I'd be glad to investigate as well.


xtfftc and Grackaroni

I'll grant Grackaroni's premise that the part about laying the groundwork for you is hypothetical, but I weighed waiting to say something until it happens against saying something now against one another and deduced I wouldn't likely be around to make the case if they made one on you.

To check out what I was saying you need to go back and start reading at Day 1 and assume I'm town. I'm not asking you to keep that assumption, but if I'm town you can see where they were trying to lead the discussion onto me. Then look at Day 2 and when they really went for it. Xtfftc committed to it and Grackaroni kind of nudged to try to get others going on it. You also need to read it in context, using the filters exclusively isn't the best for it.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9856 Posts
December 09 2011 00:57 GMT
#880
In which case my scum team right now would be :
JB
BKEXE
Xtfftc
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