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Okay guys, I think we should try to get as much information as possible off the Kenpachi/Lanaia case. Here is my own analysis. This analysis assumes that Kenpachi will flip green/blue. If he flips red, its a whole other story.
Is Lanaia scum ?
While there still is a small possibilities that Lanaia used her ability to focus the votes on Kenpachi, I believe she is town and only made a mistake using her anti-vote carelessly. The main reason is that her ability does not seems to fit a scum as it appears to everyone. This was confirmed to be working as intended by Zona. Also she stated beforehand that the would rather lynch sinani over Kenpachi, so her anti-vote on Ken is understandable ( does not mean it was a good move). This leads me to believe her saying that she made a huge mistake. I'd say she is town 75%. Lets not lynch her. Yet.
@Lanaia : So you did not want to claim d1, yet you used your anti-vote fully aware that he would show up?? This contradiction is the reason i still think you migth be scum.
What was the stance of mafia during this ?
Okay, so lets try to think as if we were mafia. A blue 'accidentaly' reveal herself, and does this in a extremely strange way. Kenpachi had not posted much, so I dont think mafia had a read on him being potentially blue yet ( his over reaction to his lynching migth have been a good tell for them). Perfect opportunity to press the town into a misslynch !
Sho who should mafia focus on ? Kenpachi ( no read on him), or Lanaia ( confirmed blue). This is a no brainer for them, pressuring the town into voting Lanaia is obviously the best move here for them. Lets see who voted early for her :
* Drazerk :
On November 17 2011 06:03 Drazerk wrote:
##vote: Lanaia
No blue would save kenpachi
First one to go for Lania, just after the post revealing her as a blue. Only has a very bad reason for this. Had already voted for Kenpachi before. Voted too hastely or scum ?
* Hyshes :
On November 17 2011 06:21 hyshes wrote:Show nested quote +On November 17 2011 06:01 Zephirdd wrote:Huh, I just found this on our beautiful bot-induced vote system. Kenpachi (4): bumatlarge, DCLXVI, prplhz, Drazerk, Zephirdd, Lanaia (Anti-Vote) Now, looking through his filters, Lanaia has not made an statement on voting Kenpachi, except that he prefers to vote on sinani over him. Which means that, either the system is bugged(unlikely), or Lanaia has the ability to anti-vote someone through PM. Looking through the roles, the closest I've found is "Double Voter", but I assume anti-voting is a variation of that. Which means Lanaia is not green(assuming green = vanilla town) So either Lanaia is scum or Lanaia is a blue to be killed. The question is: which one? And if he doesn't die next day, can we confirm he is scum or maybe the Mafia just want us to believe that? And why would he want Kenpachi to not die(anti-voting him)? I'd like to have these questions clarified or at least discussed, I got really confused right now. only scum would defend lurkers. ##vote: Lanaia
With this in mind, the fact that he jumped extremely quickly on the Lanaia bandwagon with the only excuse "only scum would defend a lurker" is extremelly scummy. Not only that, but while this statement suggest that Kenpachi is also scum, he did not vote for him, focusing only on Lanaia. This is very suspect.
Note that he later 'said' that it would be weird if Lanaia did this as scum, but did not remove his vote!
*Palmar :
On November 17 2011 06:24 Palmar wrote:
Also, Zona, if they're both scum you should probably re-roll the game, sadly.
##Vote Lanaia
##Vote Kenpachi
On November 17 2011 07:51 Palmar wrote:
We're lynching Lanaia no matter what. What she did is extremely poor play on day 1. If you're gonna do something like that, why not take it up with town? You must've known the anti-vote would show up anyway, so you're basically outed as soon as yo use it.
Basically, that play is so bad for town that I see no reason to not lynch her.
As for Kenpachi, well, his sole defense i "town is bad" which is well... fair. But remember, if you are the one who doesn't manage to argue your way out of lynch, both as town and scum, you are actually the worst person of all those bads you're complaining about.
Without exception, the player who gets lynched day 1 is the worst player in the game.
Okay so Palmar had already quite some influence over town with his Chaoser analysis, immediatly jumped on the Lanaia bandwagon, and later when people where only voting for Kenpachi, he insisted on the fact that Lanaia should by going down multiple time. As explained above, this is very mafia-like, he is trying to make us lynch a blue !
*LemonWalrus/GreYMisT : You guys went for her early, but backed down after explanation that lynching both of them was not a good idea, and that Kenpachi was probably the best lynch. I'm fine with that.
*Zephirrd : He was the one that discovered te anti-vote, yet he waited to vote for Lanaia, and gave good reasons for his vote. I'd keep an eye on him, but no clear scum read here.
*Hiroruby :Jumbed on the bandwagon without good reasons. Also, very scummy post early in the game. Not very active overall ( made a couple big post early, and fell into unactivity after that.
*Sinani206 : Also jumped on the bandwagon without any good reason ( only said 1 word : "Scumbuddies" ).
Now the same analysis gives us a good read on risk.nuke too : He was the first and only one to push the town into NOT VOTING for Lanaia. Why would a mafia push the town into not voting for a blue ? Does not make sens to me.I Believe he is town.
Conclusion
Likely scum : Drazerk, Hyshes, Palmar, Hiroruby, Sinani206
Likely Town : Lanaia, LemonWalrus, GreyMisT, Zephirrd
Confirmed Town: risk.Nuke.
This is based on this analysis alone, I ignored on purpose most of the post that did not relate to the Kenpachi/lanaia Case. The goal was to find potential scum, we still need to confirm them ! I think we should not lynch anyone for now. If Kenpachi does not flip red, Focus on the likely scum above. If not, we lynched a red :D, and back to the drawing board, to re use risk.nuke wording.
What do you guys think ? I would love some feedback on this.
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Ouch, Palmar post that he likes me, and i destroy him with my very next post. Sorry for that ^^'.
I still stand by my analysis tho.
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I cant see a town chaoser antagonizing people with "cant wait till im lynched"
I really hope he flips red otherwise his play style has reached an all new low.
##Vote Chaoser
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Palmar's Notebook - Day 1
- I offered town to pick the people I'd analyse, I mostly did this because I was hardly following the thread early on, and I figured with 5-6 mafia in this game it was likely the people picking targets for me would be town, in any case, it would provide a foundation for me to work on for the day.
- I threw an off-vote on coagulation early on. This is based on my experience of him being completely useless as town. At the time I wasn't aware that we could mass votes, I only realized this when I started reading chaoser's posts.
- chaoser is the first person whose posts I read through. I was aware he was already under suspicion, WBG made a case against him. When I started reading his posts I noticed an abnormal amount of votes, followed by me realizing we can actually vote on multiple people.
- Someone quoted a rule from Zona where it was mentioned that roles may be linked to how people are voting, I found this particularly interesting as I had already noticed chaoser's tendency to vote completely randomly, something I wouldn't expect a solid town player to do.
- Then I noticed that chaoser had claimed vanilla town too, and in the same post called LAL stupid. This feels very much like a setup for a blue claim later. Now, since there is no reason to actually lie about being green when you're blue (you just shut up), and since the random voting only makes sense from chaoser once you add in the fact that he might have a role related to his voting, I concluded that the chances of chaoser being vanilla town were extremely slim.
- chaoser was clearly aware of his voting frenzy, even gloating about how many people he was voting for. If I add all these together, the only reasonable conclusion is that he is a scum and has a role somehow related to his votes. He would not liberally vote like this as vanilla town. The only other possible outcome is chaoser being a blue who has some role like that, but he has denied it so far, and from now on I won't believe any claim in that direction.
- I read prplhz's posts. I have a really hard time understanding prplhz. He is aggressive and wrong a lot as both town and scum, so I can't call him out on doing bad shit like I can with chaoser. But he seems to be genuinely pushing his ideas, so I wouldn't try to lynch him at this point. Also, we have better lynches to deal with at the moment, so I'm willing to give prplhz the benefit of the doubt.
- Note to self: Forumite's style of posting is looking pretty town, but his reads are all over the place. I don't think his cases are good enough to actually follow them through with a lynch, but I do think he's trying. I have a town read on him at the moment.
- Lanaia did a ridiculously anti-town play by voting against a Kenpachi lynch. I don't believe her that she was fully aware of the Anti-Vote being listed, because no matter her alignment, she would probably have figured out how incredibly bad that was. She admits a mistake, but can we really allow it to be brushed off as a mistake? If people fuck up they need to be held accountable. After sleeping on it and reading Tyrren's post who agreed with risk.nuke (something I had skipped so far), I'm starting to think that I may be wrong in us having to lynch her. Kenpachi flipping town would write it off as a null-read, and kenpachi flipping scum leads to us having to lynch her. If game starts going badly she needs to be killed.
- Kenpachi is being is usual completely useless self. He won't be missed.
- risk.nuke wrote a simple case scenario on the Lanaia/Kenpachi situation. What's interesting about it is that his post only makes sense as town, or a scumpartner with Lanaia, and since it's a long shot that he'd actually come out and defend his partner like that, it's making risk.nuke one of my stronger town reads at the moment.
- Lemonwalrus is bad, possibly scum, but probably just bad. He's prematurely trying to link my alignment to the flip of the lynches I'm pushing, which is obviously bullshit, as there is nothing scummy about pushing a mislynch if it's done based on solid logic. The only time I've seen my alignment being tied so hard to a lynch I'm pushing was in Swedish House Mafia where both the people doing it were scum.
- I read through Tyrren's posts. I like them and I want to hear more from him, as per my analysis he is very likely to be town and seems to have potential to be useful as a scumhunter. ME GUSTA!
- Bumatlarge's post regarding "being afraid of an active Coagulation" is possibly the most scummy thing I've read in the thread so far. Coagulation only has 5 votes on him and is in no way in danger of being lynched, yet Bum feels the need to reach out and defend Coag's lurking. This doesn't even make sense, and Bumatlarge knows it. I feel that Bum might be a great vigilante target for tonight, or at least a DT check. It's bad logic at it's finest and Bum is a good player. One of the most sure ways to tell scum from town is to see when they make bad calls. Not to mention my favorite new guy (Tyrren) also dislikes Bum!
- I might offer to alignment analyse two more people, I will put up a seperate post if I have the time to do it.
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On November 17 2011 19:55 Tyrran wrote:
Ouch, Palmar post that he likes me, and i destroy him with my very next post. Sorry for that ^^'.
I still stand by my analysis tho.
You actually made me reconsider the stance on Lanaia. I just posted a huge post to see you attacking me 
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I guess I'll just go ahead and disagree with myself
##Unvote Lanaia
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Who the fuck you calling useless as town?
I fucking snipe godfathers constantly.
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On November 17 2011 19:37 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On November 17 2011 19:34 Forumite wrote:
Palmar, Cyber_Cheese, ignoring Kenpachi, Chaoser and Lanaia for a moment, where´s your strongest Scumread? If you two could pick anyone else to lynch, and lynch now, who would it be? Following that latest post of Bumatlarge's, I'd probably lynch him. Wherebugsgo asked me about Bum earlier, to which I responded him being a null read, but that is such a bad post, I see no motivation for town to post in such a manner. I do not agree with most of your reads at the moment, but you seem genuine enough in your accusations that I also don't think you need to be looked at specifically at the moment. On November 17 2011 19:45 Cyber_Cheese wrote:Show nested quote +On November 17 2011 19:34 Forumite wrote:
Palmar, Cyber_Cheese, ignoring Kenpachi, Chaoser and Lanaia for a moment, where´s your strongest Scumread? If you two could pick anyone else to lynch, and lynch now, who would it be? Prplhz is my second strongest scum read, but he manages to do that every game, so lynching right now would be Sinani.
Thanks for your answers. I´m almost certain that Kenpachi is Town, due to how easily he was lynched early in the day, not sure what that says about Chaoser and Lanaia.
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LSB and xsksc, I like how you two occasionally come back to the game when pressured or voted upon, but I wish you were here more often. Miss you! 
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I was asleep while all that shit went down last night
I can't help it man, when I'm on nothing happens. I posted my analysis a couple of hours ago and not much has happened since then. What are your current reads forumite? Still think think I'm newbie scum based on my hello post? Cause honestly, that was a pretty silly case.
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Trying to play safe; After Kenpachi's lynch he suddenly seemed waay less scum to me; that or much more scum than before, and that will obviously depend on the flip: he is trying to convince us that he is blue and it was a bad decision to lynch him, and we should back off any other hasty decisions, which would be good for scum if he is scum, or good for town if he is town. In essence, there is a 5/25 chance that, if we take chaoser or Lanaia down, we take down two scums at once, OR that we take down two towns at once. Or something like that, fuck math. Either way, Kenpachi's play after his lynch were pro-himself, and depends on his flip tomorrow(or the 19th, if you count the night)
That said, the safest play is to back off at this moment. Should Kenpachi flip scum, we at least know that Lanaia(or maybe chaoser) is scum. Should he flip town, we cannot be sure that they are town, but at least we know that Kenpachi considered them town(of course, he couldn't know for sure either).
also, I don't really believe chaoser is scum; I was mostly OMGUSing him at that point. I still have some bad vibes on him, but not enough bad vibes for anything. Lanaia still seems suspicious, but as I said, I think playing safe is better atm.
##Unvote: chaoser
##Unvote: Lanaia
That is all for now; You guys post a lot and I still need to analyse if I should go aggressive over someone today or if I should wait for the next day.
Oh yeah, also, "the next day" is MLG...
I'll be semi-inactive during Day 2(19th-21st) because I'll be at a Barcraft watching MLG. I may be able to post some thing or other, but I'll be unable to analyze stuff with care. Sorry about that, but tbh that's to be expected when you are at TL.net right?
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how is kenpachi's flip related to chaoser?
Chaoser is the only person up for a lynch that's being lynched for actually being scummy and having an analysis against him. More than anyone else he should be lynched today. We gain nothing from the Kenpachi lynch regarding the people pushing him because it was just a silly mistake by Lanaia that incriminated him, and it's not like he was oozing town before that thing.
We should be voting to lynch at least one person based on analysis, and that person should be chaoser.
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Not that much related, it's just that Kenpachi defended chaoser and chaoser defended Kenpachi to death; Kenpachi's flip has more to do with Lanaia tbh. Again, I'll back off for now; given enough votes and arguments, however, I'm willing to lynch someone else IF I consider it to be the right choice(aka. people convince me).
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On November 17 2011 23:19 Zephirdd wrote:
Not that much related, it's just that Kenpachi defended chaoser and chaoser defended Kenpachi to death; Kenpachi's flip has more to do with Lanaia tbh. Again, I'll back off for now; given enough votes and arguments, however, I'm willing to lynch someone else IF I consider it to be the right choice(aka. people convince me).
What is lacking in my case against chaoser for you to be convinced?
Do you think he was trying to play optimally for town when he started spamming and voting people randomly? Do you think he is not aware that it is bad play?
Read my notes on chaoser up this page. What is it that makes you believe that these accusations are not valid?
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Palmar, what are your thoughts on Drazerk?
While I agree that Chaos would be a decent lynch, I see Drazerk as way more suspicious at the moment and I'd rather lynch him.
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On November 17 2011 23:24 xsksc wrote:
Palmar, what are your thoughts on Drazerk?
While I agree that Chaos would be a decent lynch, I see Drazerk as way more suspicious at the moment and I'd rather lynch him.
Drazerk has done some extremely bad things this game, the most hilarious of all was when he went through his own games go convince us he's bad at this.
I mean... I have no words, his actual defense is that he is terrible at mafia? I would be fine with lynching Drazerk or even Bumatlarge. I just want another lynch outside of Kenpachi, and I have been convinced that Lanaia should be left alive for now, mostly by risk.nuke and tyrren whom I both consider town.
I don't have time right now to build a case against Drazerk, and because I only think we should lynch one person outside of Kenpachi today, my attention is completely on chaoser, whom I consider very likely to be scum at the moment.
We need a single lynch for today based on analysis. We've already achieved a Kenpachi lynch, and we're ruling out Lanaia for now. I think this lynch should be chaoser, but I encourage people to make a case for someone else.
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Then I noticed that chaoser had claimed vanilla town too, and in the same post called LAL stupid. This feels very much like a setup for a blue claim later. Now, since there is no reason to actually lie about being green when you're blue (you just shut up), and since the random voting only makes sense from chaoser once you add in the fact that he might have a role related to his voting, I concluded that the chances of chaoser being vanilla town were extremely slim.
That's a good point. Why would you setup a blue claim when you can just shut up(in the words of Palmar), unless you want to deceive people with the blue claim?
I'm still... I don't know, it feels something is off.
I'll place my votes by the end of the day, should there be any. I really don't want to rush it nor influence people to vote someone because everyone is voting on him(as occurred with Kenpachi).
One thing that is biting me tho. Why do you want another lynch so much, Palmar?
Also, random timestamp so I know the end of the day time locally.
Friday, Nov 18 2:00am GMT (GMT+00:00)
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On November 17 2011 23:39 Zephirdd wrote:Show nested quote +Then I noticed that chaoser had claimed vanilla town too, and in the same post called LAL stupid. This feels very much like a setup for a blue claim later. Now, since there is no reason to actually lie about being green when you're blue (you just shut up), and since the random voting only makes sense from chaoser once you add in the fact that he might have a role related to his voting, I concluded that the chances of chaoser being vanilla town were extremely slim. That's a good point. Why would you setup a blue claim when you can just shut up(in the words of Palmar), unless you want to deceive people with the blue claim? I'm still... I don't know, it feels something is off. I'll place my votes by the end of the day, should there be any. I really don't want to rush it nor influence people to vote someone because everyone is voting on him(as occurred with Kenpachi). One thing that is biting me tho. Why do you want another lynch so much, Palmar? Also, random timestamp so I know the end of the day time locally. Friday, Nov 18 2:00am GMT (GMT+00:00)
Influencing people is the way to play this game. I mean, I'd love if I could just vote mafia and they die, that'd be grand. But that's not how mafia works, so I try my best to influence the rest of town. You want to do this as soon as you can in order to get your message across. Remember, Europeans will probably be sleeping around lynch, so you need to establish your stance early enough for people to adjust to your reads.
I want another lynch because if we settle for only a kenpachi lynch we enter night 1 and thus day 2 without having achieved anything. The Kenpachi lynch was a combination of his terrible day 1 play and a really bad move by lanaia, but it didn't get discussed enough for it to actually provide us with information.
If we can settle on lynching someone through analysis, we will get a ton of discussion, which can be reviewed later in the game. I guess this is just accidental implementation of the lurker lynch idea. We lynch 1 lurker (Kenpachi) and one actual lynch candidate. I don't want to settle for only one lynch because what would that achieve? We will be having the same conversations tomorrow as we have today.
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Yo palmer, why did you think kenpachi was a better lynch for a lurker lynch over sinani? Do you think sinani would be better to bring into day two than kenpachi was given the fact that kenpachi
1) Wasn't lurking anymore
2) A complex situation arose for him and not enough time was given to discuss it before he was hammered
Also, what are you thoughts on hiroruby, who has voted twice, pushed none of them, made wishy-washy statements about how to implement LAL policy and has since disappeared?
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EDIT:
Yo palmer, why did you think kenpachi was a better lynch for a lurker lynch over sinani? Do you think sinani would be better to bring into day two than kenpachi when given the fact that kenpachi
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EPT
