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On August 30 2011 05:16 Navillus wrote:
Also stronger FOS on Forumite that unvote just seemed like an "ok guys here's a reason not to vote him let's all jump off" unvote given by a scum buddy, I did consider unvoting when he claimed because he would be certain to die anyway but only after a lot of thought which I would have brought up in any post, I also ended up deciding against it. Forumite on the other hand completely accepts what he says and tries to make it a question of "ok he's a blue what should we do now?" not "is he a blue?"
It was an easy claim to go along with, because lying wouldn´t save him. Either he really is the psychologist and had found Chaos13, we didn´t get an answer from GM so we couldn´t disapprove it yet, or he´s a lying scum. If a psychologist then he dies during the next night, if he´s Scum then we lynch him the next day, but until then he might do some more scumslips and incriminate his buddies.
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On August 30 2011 07:10 chaos13 wrote:Show nested quote +On August 30 2011 02:39 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Psychologist visit Jackal.
If Jackal is the Psychologist, visit Chaos13. I would suggest the Psychologist don't visit Jackal, precisely because he is the EA. I'm going to vote Jackal tomorrow and be pushing for his lynch, so what is the point in causing our psych to kill himself by visiting Jackal?
Right...
##Visit Jackal58
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On August 30 2011 08:04 Navillus wrote:Show nested quote +On August 30 2011 06:26 Forumite wrote:On August 30 2011 05:16 Navillus wrote:
Also stronger FOS on Forumite that unvote just seemed like an "ok guys here's a reason not to vote him let's all jump off" unvote given by a scum buddy, I did consider unvoting when he claimed because he would be certain to die anyway but only after a lot of thought which I would have brought up in any post, I also ended up deciding against it. Forumite on the other hand completely accepts what he says and tries to make it a question of "ok he's a blue what should we do now?" not "is he a blue?" It was an easy claim to go along with, because lying wouldn´t save him. Either he really is the psychologist and had found Chaos13, we didn´t get an answer from GM so we couldn´t disapprove it yet, or he´s a lying scum. If a psychologist then he dies during the next night, if he´s Scum then we lynch him the next day, but until then he might do some more scumslips and incriminate his buddies. See now if you had said this back then I would find it much more believable, but you didn't you completely assumed that he was being honest and didn't even bring up the possibility of him lying.
I would have told you if you had asked me.
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On August 30 2011 07:56 chaos13 wrote:Show nested quote +On August 30 2011 07:29 Forumite wrote:On August 30 2011 07:10 chaos13 wrote:On August 30 2011 02:39 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Psychologist visit Jackal.
If Jackal is the Psychologist, visit Chaos13. I would suggest the Psychologist don't visit Jackal, precisely because he is the EA. I'm going to vote Jackal tomorrow and be pushing for his lynch, so what is the point in causing our psych to kill himself by visiting Jackal? Right... ##Visit Jackal58 Explain to me how our psych visiting him is good. It doesn't kill the EA, it doesn't remove him from the game, it doesn't take away his power, and we have no way of knowing for sure if the psych actually visited who everyone voted for. It gets us a dead townie. Instead, they should visit who they think was most likely targeted last night.
It´s complicated. My vote is for jackal to get a visit from the Psychologist.
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On Chaos13 and TheFerryman
I´m agreeing with Ferryman on his FoS on Chaos13, but because of an unrelated scumtell. I got suspicious of Chaos13 quite recently, with this post;
On August 30 2011 07:10 chaos13 wrote:Show nested quote +On August 30 2011 02:39 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Psychologist visit Jackal.
If Jackal is the Psychologist, visit Chaos13. I would suggest the Psychologist don't visit Jackal, precisely because he is the EA. I'm going to vote Jackal tomorrow and be pushing for his lynch, so what is the point in causing our psych to kill himself by visiting Jackal? He says we should lynch Jackal without being sure, that we should trust his feel about the lynch. If Jackal is the EA, and the Psych dies finding him, then we loose a Town player. A town argument, saving a player from needlessly dying, except if the Psychologist visits Jackal and survives the night, then Jackal can´t be the EA. Chaos13 has no chance of lynching a confirmed Townie, so he tries to make sure the Psych isn´t sent to Jackal. Scum don´t push to lynch confirmed Townies, they nightkill them, the talk tonight could have been just that, scum trying to get a feel for how a lynch on Jackal would go.
----
My original analysis post was actually going to be about how TheFerryman looked scummy. Part of it is irrelevant now, but I still want to hear his answer on the other thing.
My FoS on him was pointing out two things. First, that he didn´t play like he did early in the game, with big analysis and metagame arguments. With the FoS on Chaos13, that´s no longer the case, Ferryman is back to his original style. The other thing I wondered about Ferryman is still relevant though, and has to do with two unassuming comments in his posts during Day 1, see below. Twice he says he was going to, or was in the middle of doing, a metagame analysis of JeeJee, but didn´t deliver, or update on his thoughts. It´s not a damning scumtell, but looks bad, and I want to hear what happened to that analysis.
On August 25 2011 06:25 TheFerryman wrote:
Finally, I'm getting weird vibes from JeeJee, I need to go back and read up on his meta. JeeJee, what's the last game you rolled town (preferably a normal or mini)? I'm going to go check SNMMIII (i think that was the game) for your scum meta. On August 25 2011 08:56 TheFerryman wrote:
@Wiggles, you ask me for scum-reads, well, so far you are the only one that sticks out to me, I'm suspicious of JeeJee, but I haven't yet caught up with his meta (reading through games takes a while), however I certainly have my eye on him.
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I was expecting a daypost about now...
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This is why we post analysis at the end of the night, to avoid becoming a target for the Scum, and creating WIFOM.
Disregarding the nightkill for a while, I think Chaos13 is scummy for his craplogical push on Jackal, reasoning in my analysis post above.
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I like it how Erandorr come when you make a FoS on him =)
Chaos13, you haven´t seen/answered the FoS I sent on you, it went out just before the new day, and regards the same thing Cyber pointed out. Basically, it´s that you didn´t want to send the Psych on Jackal, who you think is the EA. You argued that it´s a waste to send the Psych to die, it might look that way, but it´s craplogic. If we get the EA because the Psych die finding him, then we can be much more sure on the lynch. Also, if we send the Psych and he doesn´t die, then we can be more or less sure that Jackal is not the EA. That´s the thing that looked bad, it looked like you wanted to make sure that Jackal was not cleared of EA-suspicion, so that you could lynch him today.
Anyway, I´m looking forward to that analysis on Jackal. I want to hear what made you so sure about Jackal that you thought a Psych verification was unnecessary.
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On August 31 2011 08:21 Jackal58 wrote:
I have no idea if the Psych visited me or not. It wouldn't matter if he did unless I'm insane. I am not the EA. I cannot visit anybody at night. I cannot harm the Psych if he does visit me. I wish people would quit assuming that the Psych visited me. We have no idea if he did. We certainly don't want him claiming until the EA is dead. So please stop assuming I was visited. That kind of thinking is going to get us in a pickle.
I know we asked the Psych to visit you and you didn´t die, that´s something.
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On August 31 2011 09:01 chaos13 wrote:Show nested quote +On August 31 2011 07:03 Forumite wrote:
I like it how Erandorr come when you make a FoS on him =)
Chaos13, you haven´t seen/answered the FoS I sent on you, it went out just before the new day, and regards the same thing Cyber pointed out. Basically, it´s that you didn´t want to send the Psych on Jackal, who you think is the EA. You argued that it´s a waste to send the Psych to die, it might look that way, but it´s craplogic. If we get the EA because the Psych die finding him, then we can be much more sure on the lynch. Also, if we send the Psych and he doesn´t die, then we can be more or less sure that Jackal is not the EA. That´s the thing that looked bad, it looked like you wanted to make sure that Jackal was not cleared of EA-suspicion, so that you could lynch him today.
Anyway, I´m looking forward to that analysis on Jackal. I want to hear what made you so sure about Jackal that you thought a Psych verification was unnecessary. I've pretty much addressed this above. If I think Jackal is the EA, why should I want the psych to go visit him and get killed? That defeats the point of the skipped night phase. I would much rather the psych visit someone insane and cure them, and keep the EA farther from their win condition than have the pysch go get themselves killed when we can't actually confirm that they visited the target everyone voted on. Analysis on Jackal in progress. Will be up in an hour or two probably.
That explains it, I missed/scimmed over your earlier explanation. We view this differently, I think finding the EA is the important job of the Psychologist, while you think it´s keeping people sane.
As for Jackal, I still want to hear your analysis.
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On August 31 2011 23:25 tnkted wrote:
I'm getting red vibe off forumite. If you read his post history it's all soft FoS's that he doesn't really follow through on.
Are you saying that you don´t like the way I play, or that I´m playing like a scum in this game? Because I´ve been accused of being scum because of weak FoS many times.
What do people think about Navilius? And no, it´s not a FoS, I just don´t have a good read on him.
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Neither Navillus or Sevryn has posted since the new day, so it looks like we have 4 lurkers.
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Postchecking lurkers. I´m getting green reads on all of Eiii, Erandorr and Sevryn. I want them to post more, Erandorr says he will soon, but I don´t want to lynch any of them. I´d rather take a good look at Wiggles and tnkted, it still doesn´t add up that neither was lynched during day 1. I can understand that it was even until the extension, but afterwards it wouldn´t have taken much for scum to sneak in one or two votes on either candidate. Palmar, Navillus and Me were asking for people to stay away from the weak candidates, it would have been easy for a scum to join in and get a Townie lynch going.
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I think tnkted was refering to his post below, made just after JeeJee´s scumslip was found.
On August 28 2011 03:08 tnkted wrote:
actually the C in Scum doesn't follow a period, but otherwise the message says
'im scum
u mad'
Reading Jee Jee's posts reveals he's replied to/agreed with/been focused on sevryn faaaar more than anyone else, so perhaps sevryn is our lynch tomorrow.
Also town needs to start talking asap.
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I´ve been doing voting analysis, and one thing looks weird, JeeJee, confirmed Scum, didn´t buss at all, he put his vote on Cyber_Cheese, and left it there even after the others abandoned trying to lynch Cyber.
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On September 01 2011 02:42 Jackal58 wrote:
Cyber a scum buddy? My suspicion is that JeeJee was trying to lynch Cyber, but when people dropped off, then either he didn´t want to do anything in case he made himself a target, or he didn´t want to tip the lynch on one of the others.
On September 01 2011 05:12 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Show nested quote +On September 01 2011 02:18 Forumite wrote:
I´ve been doing voting analysis, and one thing looks weird, JeeJee, confirmed Scum, didn´t buss at all, he put his vote on Cyber_Cheese, and left it there even after the others abandoned trying to lynch Cyber. Do you mean bandwagoning? We don't know if he was bussing or not, because we don't know who his team mates are. Or maybe you do? Well, yes, a bandwagon. He jumped on when the bandwagon was going on against Cyber, 4 players voted on Cyber in a row, among them JeeJee, but once they dropped off, he didn´t join the votetrains on tnkted and Palmar, and later Wiggles. Palmar has flipped, and he was never a prime target for the lynch, but JeeJee could have gotten you or tnkted lynched, if he had wanted to, you were both 1 vote away from a lynch. You and tnkted acted the same way, wasting your votes on players that would never get lynched. tnkted voted on Palmar and Cyber, you voted on Eiii and Palmar.
That makes me think JeeJee, Mr. Wiggles and tnkted are the scumteam.
This post of JeeJee doesn´t help. (emphasis mine)
+ Show Spoiler +On August 28 2011 03:23 JeeJee wrote:Show nested quote +On August 28 2011 02:50 Jackal58 wrote:Coag is my son Twinkles. He just made it to Ga. He's on his way to Fl. Naked Tuesdays are now back in vogue. Palmar once again I am guilty of looking at you with a jaundiced eye. Sorry man. Day ones poopfest centering on breadcrumbing made me curious as to who if anybody had. On August 27 2011 03:33 JeeJee wrote:
indeed, this is an interesting point. making sure that the scenario where ea/psych visit one another is accounted for properly is all we've focused on, but the most likely thing to happen is that neither will visit another. someone's basically not-EA if that happens
checking palmar is the best idea i think. under the assumption that psych decides to follow the plan (i dont see why he wouldnt), i'd be hella more comfortable knowing palmar's not the EA. my other suggestion is wiggles.
ugh, you read my mind. my god, where did the 'horror' come from. and like everyone's saying it too. damn shit annoys me :<
##visit palmar I could probably do this with every post in this game but each of those letters follow a period. I don't believe in accidents. surely you're not serious. look hard enough and i'm sure you can find something like this in anyone's posts if they post enough. major fos on both tnkted and wiggles for just jumping on this without thinking it's simply a coincidence.
FoS tnkted
##Vote Mr. Wiggles
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Fun fact, at the end of the Day 1 lynch, it was JeeJee, Wiggles, tnkted and Cyber that didn´t have their vote on either tnkted or Wiggles, the two most likely candidates.
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On September 01 2011 06:52 Mr. Wiggles wrote:However, the day actually ended with three votes on tnkted, and three votes on Palmar, so at what point did tnkted become a "more likely candidate" than Palmar?
Nice logic.
Palmar was a less likely candidate because while Wiggles and tnkted got several people voting on them in a row, for Palmar it was much less so. For Palmar, the first vote was from tnkted. Cyber and Eii also voted early, but Cyber and tnkted dropped off. It was very late when tnkted, you Wiggles, and Cyber came back for the final 3 votes. Right before the 3 votes landed on Palmar, 5-6 people voted on tnkted, and after the 3 votes went to Palmar, 5 people voted on Wiggles, almost as if someone tried to redirect the lynch. Palmar was a candidate, but the bandwagons on tnkted and Wiggles were much stronger.
Wiggles, it looks weird, if it´s not you three, then what really happened?
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On August 26 2011 04:32 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
I'm town, but it doesn't even matter if you believe me, because:
I'm town, so I want to kill scum
If I'm EA, I want to kill mafia to buy town cred
If I'm mafia, I want to kill EA on Day 1, as outlined above I know it´s taken out of context, but it´s such a nice post.
Original post:+ Show Spoiler +On August 26 2011 04:32 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2011 03:52 Sevryn wrote:On August 26 2011 02:31 Mr. Wiggles wrote:On August 25 2011 23:41 Palmar wrote:On August 25 2011 23:36 Forumite wrote:On August 25 2011 23:15 Palmar wrote:On August 25 2011 23:07 Forumite wrote:On August 25 2011 23:01 Palmar wrote:
I have a new strategy, I'll never vote for people I think are town. I'll actually force a no-lynch over it. I'm just not going to spam the thread away trying to convince people I'm right. Right... What's your reasoning to believe Wiggles is town? I don´t trust the primary argument made against him. Meta is usefull, sometimes, but I don´t think it´s applicable in finding a new kind of 3rd party with an unknown optimal play, especially as the meta argument focused specifically on his first post, which wanted to start a discussion more than anything. Since then wiggles has sometimes overreacted in his defences, there might be something there, but some players has said that Wiggles is hard to read, and I´m prepared to trust that Meta more than what Ferryman brought up. Then take a look at some of the things that have happened in the game. Wiggles decided to vote Eiii in his opening post. There is nothing wrong with randomly voting, but the fact that he felt the need to specify it was a pressure vote (through linking an awesome song by bowie/queen), shows inherent signs of guilt, and not wanting to stick his neck out. I don't even understand what the purpose of voting someone with the intent of only pressuring would be. At he point in time he threw down that vote it'd have been more sensical to go after one of the players that have posted, or to simply claim the vote on Eiii was to get rid of lurkers. Basically, that vote was because he was lurking, and because when he actually got around to posting, I wanted him to say something substantial and not just a one-liner before disappearing. The vote draws attention to him, and makes it harder to lurk unnoticed. As well, I was somewhat making fun of the random voting that was happening before my post, as people were all trying to pressure each other, and I was throwing my own in there as well. Now, he's starting to post more again, and should hopefully pick up his activity and actually discuss things in the last 24 hours before the lynch. I want to talk about this post, though: On August 25 2011 23:01 Palmar wrote:
Actually screw it.
I have a new strategy, I'll never vote for people I think are town. I'll actually force a no-lynch over it. I'm just not going to spam the thread away trying to convince people I'm right.
##Unvote tnkted
##Vote Mr. Wiggles Trying to force a no-lynch is pretty anti-town, as it gives mafia a free round of night kills without any extra information for town. (If mafia's smart, they're not going to hit town mislynch targets). I'm also interested in this post, because it comes 45 minutes or so before the deadline for the lynch, when tnkted was at 6 votes. This means that he was in danger of having an additional person vote for him, assuring his lynch. By unvoting him, you assure that it will take at least two people to make sure the lynch goes through, and so close to the deadline, it is much more likely that we will instead be forced to use one of our extensions, much better saved for further days. So, it seems likely to me, that either you and tnkted are scumbuddies and you wanted to save him from the lynch, or that only you yourself are scum, making what looks like a bold town statement in order to assure that the extension is used on Day 1. ##Unvote
##Vote Palmar Trying to save who you think is townie is not scum play as palmar proved in TL Mafia XLIV I will switch my vote to wiggles so we can get him lynched I still think ferryman made a very strong case against him. Cyber cheese needs to pick up his play. ##unvote
##vote Mr. Wiggles If you read, you can see that Palmar did not in fact try to save Tnkted, or at least, he did a very bad job of it. He did not adequately explain how Tnkted is town, and he did not push the idea that Tnkted was town in a convincing way. All he did, was remove the vote from Tnkted, ensuring that one of town's two extensions would be used on the worst possible day for it. He hasn't done anything to reinforce Tnkted's credibility, or to actually defend against the accusations of being scum, he just forced a no-lynch, which is anti-town by itself. Show nested quote +On August 26 2011 03:53 Sevryn wrote:On August 26 2011 03:45 Mr. Wiggles wrote:On August 26 2011 03:31 Palmar wrote:
I wanted to save him from the lynch.
That doesn't mean I'm scum, there is a logical leap you're taking right there. Could it possibly be that I'm a townie and I wanted to get another townie's head off the chopping block?
You intentionally avoid that scenario. I already explained my reasoning for thinking tnkted cannot be scum, you choose to ignore that to paint me red. This is basically you grasping at straws, knowing that you're against a wall.
I'm fine with it, I like a race between myself and you much better than a race between tnkted and cyber. And hopefully enough of town is reading the thread properly to see what's truly going on here. Your reasoning for why tnkted "cannot" be scum is that he posted "lololo". That's very weak evidence to call someone town such that they "cannot" be scum. The only other thing I see, is you saying "But look at how he's posting!", which isn't exactly revealing. This takes away any responsibility for a mislynch off your back, because you can point out that you thought he was town even if you vote him, while not doing much to actually defend tnkted from a lynch or convince others that he's town. Add on to that, that you did react oddly to tnkted's initial pressure (which makes me feel better about him being town when you flip scum), and that you've just been piggy-backing off of the Ferryman's analysis of me being the EA, also known as not mafia, and I think we've found our first red this game. Havn't we already established lynching the Eldritch Abomination is pro town? we get an extra day We do get an extra day, but it is an extra day much better used later into the game. Day 1 lynches are fairly inaccurate, unless scum makes a major mistake (Like I think Palmar did), and trying to kill the EA now just means that town will be launched into Day 1-2, where it will be exactly more of the same as what we've had for the last 48 hours. We get no new information, and no new leads, because Town will want to kill EA for the extra day, but scum will want to kill EA for the town cred, meaning that all scumhunting put into finding the EA is more or less a null tell. Trying to find the EA on day 1, means that he doesn't have to pretend to hunt for actual mafia, and makes it so that the extra lynch is used on the least optimal day, where town has the least leads and information. I'm town, but it doesn't even matter if you believe me, because: I'm town, so I want to kill scum If I'm EA, I want to kill mafia to buy town cred If I'm mafia, I want to kill EA on Day 1, as outlined above So, do you think I'm EA? Then I'm hunting scum. I know I'm town, and I'm trying to convince you of such, but it shouldn't even matter when you read my analysis, because the end goal is going to be the same. Look at it impartially, and forget that it was written by Mr. Wiggles, whom you think is EA, and then tell me what you think.
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Chaos13 (2)
Cyber_Cheese
Mr. Wiggles
Sevryn (1)
tnkted
Mr. Wiggles (1)
Forumite
Eiii (1)
Jackal 58
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EPT
