On June 07 2011 10:13 Impervious wrote: Ok, I thought it through looking at a variety of different situations, and I believe that we need to push for a lynch of one of those 3, rather than rookie.
Why? Because, it's likely that all 3 (or 2 of them) are mafia, based on the timing (and assuming that rookie is town and we have 2 or so vigis in the game).
When that one flips, here's the outcomes:
Scum - We get vigis to hit one or both of the others overnight. Early knockdown to 3KP for the mafia.
Town - We get a vigi to hit rookie as an insurance policy for switching (although we can argue the merit of this move overnight, and should rookie turn out to be red, Treadmill would be a decent policy lynch tomorrow because of how hard he's been defending).
So, if we're going to hit one of them, we need to pick the scummiest one, in case it's a freak accident that they all voted at the same time like that. And we've gotta do it quick (I'm gone in ~1 hr).
Basically, if we switch - in the worst case scenario we give our vigis a good target tonight, and best case, we hit 2 or 3 mafia. Pretty damn good first lynch/night imo.
Now, I asked myself "have they been acting in the best interest of the town?", and the one that really stood out as a "no" was xkcd, so I'd agree with a switch to him right now.
So, I'm changing my vote. ##Vote: amazingxkcd
which 3?
EBWOP: just saw your post, stupid itouch.
Anyway, lets take a look at this. You are assuming that i am in league with jackal when i had made an eariler post stating that i was suspicious of him and iGrok together. If i was a scum and so was he, then why would i accuse him? I even tried to make a case against kurumi ( that case still holds) that he is too eager to want a dt check.
Whats even worse is that you want to lynch either me, kurumi, or jackal for information. Really? That is quite a mafia statement "hey lets lynch random townsmen so we can lynch others for more information? What about me? Im not trying to draw attention, move along"
Now, you haven't made much discoveries and analysis yourself, and you derail me from a basis of "it doesn't sound right". I am keeping my vote on rookie, but if you don't respond to this, i will switch my vote to you.
Can the people who voted monsterDrakar and Drazerk explain themselves?
Hell i can explain for them, Ive been lurking for the better part of this first day and i voted without saying anything
When i got up this morning I did make a small post but nothing major bar changing my vote from freeloader to treadmill after reading all the posts and believing he was not scum
With my erratic voting / posting pattern i would not be surprised if more people voted for me though and ill try to make amends tomorrow
I'm currently counting 10 votes for Rookie44, that was fast. Based on several of those being, "see you later, final votes," I think Rookie is as good as dead. I'll agree that most of his posts are very confusing to me with poor wording. Is he mafia, I don't know.
Heist, however, I know iGrok and I had voted for Drazerk for the reason you can find here on page 26. In his relatively empty first 2 posts he mentions, I'm busy, I'll follow up later with deeper thoughts --Never happened; and "I'll try to make amends tomorrow", which I doubt very much either because tomorrow is the night cycle and he appears to be avoiding saying much and avoiding substance altogether. He has had more than enough time during Day 1 to post literally around 1000 times on other threads, but no real time to actually make any attempt to appear as a town or help us. No one else has explained why he isn't scummy, and I don't see how they could. Even he cannot deny that he was lurking, avoiding talking and attention, and a suspicious voter; if he tried to deny it, he'd appear even worse. That is why in spite of any suspicions on freeloader and Rookie, I'm sticking with my gut that whether or not those two are mafia, Drazerk certainly seems to reek of scum.
Posting 1000 times is very very easy when you live report all tournaments as for the deeper thoughts i didn't get in late by which point the thread had turned another direction making it pointless
Also, drazerk is looking like a scum now that i start to evaluate him more in depth. I will do more work to see if i should switch my vote to him if impervious gives a proper response.
On June 07 2011 10:13 Impervious wrote: Ok, I thought it through looking at a variety of different situations, and I believe that we need to push for a lynch of one of those 3, rather than rookie.
Why? Because, it's likely that all 3 (or 2 of them) are mafia, based on the timing (and assuming that rookie is town and we have 2 or so vigis in the game).
When that one flips, here's the outcomes:
Scum - We get vigis to hit one or both of the others overnight. Early knockdown to 3KP for the mafia.
Town - We get a vigi to hit rookie as an insurance policy for switching (although we can argue the merit of this move overnight, and should rookie turn out to be red, Treadmill would be a decent policy lynch tomorrow because of how hard he's been defending).
So, if we're going to hit one of them, we need to pick the scummiest one, in case it's a freak accident that they all voted at the same time like that. And we've gotta do it quick (I'm gone in ~1 hr).
Basically, if we switch - in the worst case scenario we give our vigis a good target tonight, and best case, we hit 2 or 3 mafia. Pretty damn good first lynch/night imo.
Now, I asked myself "have they been acting in the best interest of the town?", and the one that really stood out as a "no" was xkcd, so I'd agree with a switch to him right now.
So, I'm changing my vote. ##Vote: amazingxkcd
which 3?
On June 07 2011 09:35 Treadmill wrote: Another interesting point: Jackal58 makes his case against rookie44, it's pretty weak, the people posting aren't convinced. Nobody but him votes for rookie44. Then an hour later
[B]On June 07 2011 06:31 amazingxkcd wrote: ##VOTE: Rookie44
Look at the time stamps, within 3 minutes of each other. And none of them posted for 2 hours previous to bandwagonning rookie. It looks liek co-ordination.
I was in the middle of writing up something a little more in depth on why I chose xkcd, but my "1 hr" has turned into "5 minutes".
I've switched my vote, and I hope some others do the same. It's not that I think rookie is a bad lynch, it's just that I think this lynch will give us more info, and if I'm wrong, we got rid of a really negative townie (which can end up derailing us in the later stages of the game).
PS, if they all show up as town, as does Treadmill, then you guys HAVE to lynch me. Not doing so would be completely suicidal.....
@iGrok: we're talking about amazingxkcd, Kurumi, and Senj who all out of the blue voted for rookie44 at the same time.
I don;t think that jackal is scum, I think that he believes he has a case against rookie44.
I'm not totally convinced on those three but considering that there're are already suspicions about Kurumi and amazingxkcd and that Senj has been a lurker it looks really suspicious.
Just caught up! Jackal's rookie lynch doesn't seem well-founded to me at all. It's possible that he's mafia but I highly doubt it.
I voted jimbooo; the first line on my mafia XL sheet is a scribble saying "Jimboo-words and actions say different things". His posts since then haven't convinced me to back off of him either. This is my preferred lynch.
I also would support an amazingxkcd lynch, he went on my sheet with his first post and since then he's been underlined twice lol.
Let's get our votes off of rookie and onto one of these two guys.
On June 07 2011 10:13 Impervious wrote: Ok, I thought it through looking at a variety of different situations, and I believe that we need to push for a lynch of one of those 3, rather than rookie.
Why? Because, it's likely that all 3 (or 2 of them) are mafia, based on the timing (and assuming that rookie is town and we have 2 or so vigis in the game).
When that one flips, here's the outcomes:
Scum - We get vigis to hit one or both of the others overnight. Early knockdown to 3KP for the mafia.
Town - We get a vigi to hit rookie as an insurance policy for switching (although we can argue the merit of this move overnight, and should rookie turn out to be red, Treadmill would be a decent policy lynch tomorrow because of how hard he's been defending).
So, if we're going to hit one of them, we need to pick the scummiest one, in case it's a freak accident that they all voted at the same time like that. And we've gotta do it quick (I'm gone in ~1 hr).
Basically, if we switch - in the worst case scenario we give our vigis a good target tonight, and best case, we hit 2 or 3 mafia. Pretty damn good first lynch/night imo.
Now, I asked myself "have they been acting in the best interest of the town?", and the one that really stood out as a "no" was xkcd, so I'd agree with a switch to him right now.
On June 07 2011 09:35 Treadmill wrote: Another interesting point: Jackal58 makes his case against rookie44, it's pretty weak, the people posting aren't convinced. Nobody but him votes for rookie44. Then an hour later
On June 07 2011 06:28 Kurumi wrote: ##unvote ##vote: Rookie44
On June 07 2011 06:29 Senj wrote: ##vote: Rookie44
On June 07 2011 06:31 amazingxkcd wrote: ##VOTE: Rookie44
Look at the time stamps, within 3 minutes of each other. And none of them posted for 2 hours previous to bandwagonning rookie. It looks liek co-ordination.
I was in the middle of writing up something a little more in depth on why I chose xkcd, but my "1 hr" has turned into "5 minutes".
I've switched my vote, and I hope some others do the same. It's not that I think rookie is a bad lynch, it's just that I think this lynch will give us more info, and if I'm wrong, we got rid of a really negative townie (which can end up derailing us in the later stages of the game).
PS, if they all show up as town, as does Treadmill, then you guys HAVE to lynch me. Not doing so would be completely suicidal.....
No. No, no, no. I'll let [b]Ver make this point for me:
Now, what if by some miracle, Youngminii was lynched and flipped green, or worse, vigilante? What would that have said about Foolishness? Think hard and carefully here, because this is a logic issue that really has plagued the town in so many TL games, especially this one. At its core is the question: what does "lynching for information" actually mean?
The lynch outcome alone would have said nothing about Foolishness! If Foolishness is veteran, how does he have any definite knowledge of what Youngminii is? He doesn't, therefore he can only do his best and try to figure out YM's role from the tools he has. That in itself does not distinguish him from Godfather Foolishness one bit. The key distinction between the two is to look at how he got Youngminii lynched and his overall play, not that he got Youngminii lynched. The latter fact, while not entirely irrelevant, is nowhere near sufficient enough on its own to warrant a lynch (and everyone knows if YM had popped up vigi Foolishness would've been autokilled the next day).
Thus it would be nonsensical to lynch YM because you think it will give the most information (the information is next to useless). The only reason to lynch YM, or virtually anyone ever, is to kill mafia. That's it.
On June 07 2011 10:37 GGQ wrote: Just caught up! Jackal's rookie lynch doesn't seem well-founded to me at all. It's possible that he's mafia but I highly doubt it.
I voted jimbooo; the first line on my mafia XL sheet is a scribble saying "Jimboo-words and actions say different things". His posts since then haven't convinced me to back off of him either. This is my preferred lynch.
I also would support an amazingxkcd lynch, he went on my sheet with his first post and since then he's been underlined twice lol.
Let's get our votes off of rookie and onto one of these two guys.
I see that you are keeping a sheet too as well.
In any case, i just want to point out that impervious is pushing for a lynch to get information rather than simply kill scum. He states in one of his posts that i seem to be the scummist because of my actions when in fact all of my analysis did not get based on feelings, but rather wordings and behavior shown.
On June 07 2011 09:35 Treadmill wrote: Another interesting point: Jackal58 makes his case against rookie44, it's pretty weak, the people posting aren't convinced. Nobody but him votes for rookie44. Then an hour later
On June 07 2011 06:31 amazingxkcd wrote: ##VOTE: Rookie44
Look at the time stamps, within 3 minutes of each other. And none of them posted for 2 hours previous to bandwagonning rookie. It looks liek co-ordination.
This is very interesting. Good pickup.
I don't think rookie or jimboo are anything other than inexperienced town. jimboo voting with the flow is certainly suspicious. But his defense is convincing (to me anyway) that he really has no grasp with what is going on.
Drazerk is a little more suspicious, having little to no activity in the thread yet voting twice. Keeping my eye on him and his promised analysis.
Which reminds me Freeloader please post your Day 1 thoughts, as you promised.
Rookie is the most likely to get lynched at the moment. I wonder if a cause of this is due to the fact that an experienced player in Jackal was the one who made the accusation against him.
Experienced players in this game will undoubtedly have more gravitas with regards to what they say in this game, and yeah, I can see how people are satisfied with his dissection of rookie's post (helped by the fact that rookie's defense has been terrible). To me, personally, rookie reeks of inexperience, not scum. Mafia would certainly take advantage of the potential answers people give, but I think he was under the impression he was helping town. But considering this is newbie mafia, I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for now.
So, who's most suspicious to me? amazingxkcd
On June 06 2011 02:56 amazingxkcd wrote: It is quite clear that it can be seen who are the main talkers for both side. The only question is now how to distinguish between the two sides and how to act upon it
This was posted after he appeared on a lurker list, as pointed out by Alderean. A clear non contribution to appear active. (amazingxkcd later layed suspicions on when Alderean when he defended rookie).
He attacks iGrok, who was contributing the most analysis to the game, while not really posting analysis of anyone else at all.
Especially after Treadmill's post I quoted above, it appears that there was a bit of collaborating between the 3 of them (Kurmuri, amazingxkcd and senj). I'm finding this very suspicious and is my best reasoning to vote for amazingxkcd on a very chaotic day one.
Impervious said it best:
[B]On June 07 2011 10:13 Impervious wrote: Now, I asked myself "have they been acting in the best interest of the town?", and the one that really stood out as a "no" was xkcd.
On June 07 2011 10:13 Impervious wrote: Ok, I thought it through looking at a variety of different situations, and I believe that we need to push for a lynch of one of those 3, rather than rookie.
Why? Because, it's likely that all 3 (or 2 of them) are mafia, based on the timing (and assuming that rookie is town and we have 2 or so vigis in the game).
When that one flips, here's the outcomes:
Scum - We get vigis to hit one or both of the others overnight. Early knockdown to 3KP for the mafia.
Town - We get a vigi to hit rookie as an insurance policy for switching (although we can argue the merit of this move overnight, and should rookie turn out to be red, Treadmill would be a decent policy lynch tomorrow because of how hard he's been defending).
So, if we're going to hit one of them, we need to pick the scummiest one, in case it's a freak accident that they all voted at the same time like that. And we've gotta do it quick (I'm gone in ~1 hr).
Basically, if we switch - in the worst case scenario we give our vigis a good target tonight, and best case, we hit 2 or 3 mafia. Pretty damn good first lynch/night imo.
Now, I asked myself "have they been acting in the best interest of the town?", and the one that really stood out as a "no" was xkcd, so I'd agree with a switch to him right now.
So, I'm changing my vote. ##Vote: amazingxkcd
which 3?
EBWOP: just saw your post, stupid itouch.
Anyway, lets take a look at this. You are assuming that i am in league with jackal when i had made an eariler post stating that i was suspicious of him and iGrok together. If i was a scum and so was he, then why would i accuse him? I even tried to make a case against kurumi ( that case still holds) that he is too eager to want a dt check.
Whats even worse is that you want to lynch either me, kurumi, or jackal for information. Really? That is quite a mafia statement "hey lets lynch random townsmen so we can lynch others for more information? What about me? Im not trying to draw attention, move along"
Now, you haven't made much discoveries and analysis yourself, and you derail me from a basis of "it doesn't sound right". I am keeping my vote on rookie, but if you don't respond to this, i will switch my vote to you.
He isn't saying that you are in league with jackal, just that you are taking advantage of the situation caused by jackal. So that invalidates your first paragraph.
Information I would say is much more crucial than a small chance of getting mafia day 1. And right now, both you and rookie have about the same chance of being scum. You're really defensive and instead of contributing to town you are just casting suspicion on everyone. Most recently you are now bandwagoning onto Drazerk.
On June 07 2011 09:35 Treadmill wrote: Another interesting point: Jackal58 makes his case against rookie44, it's pretty weak, the people posting aren't convinced. Nobody but him votes for rookie44. Then an hour later
On June 07 2011 06:28 Kurumi wrote: ##unvote ##vote: Rookie44
On June 07 2011 06:29 Senj wrote: ##vote: Rookie44
On June 07 2011 06:31 amazingxkcd wrote: ##VOTE: Rookie44
Look at the time stamps, within 3 minutes of each other. And none of them posted for 2 hours previous to bandwagonning rookie. It looks liek co-ordination.
This is very interesting. Good pickup.
I don't think rookie or jimboo are anything other than inexperienced town. jimboo voting with the flow is certainly suspicious. But his defense is convincing (to me anyway) that he really has no grasp with what is going on.
Drazerk is a little more suspicious, having little to no activity in the thread yet voting twice. Keeping my eye on him and his promised analysis.
Which reminds me Freeloader please post your Day 1 thoughts, as you promised.
Rookie is the most likely to get lynched at the moment. I wonder if a cause of this is due to the fact that an experienced player in Jackal was the one who made the accusation against him.
Experienced players in this game will undoubtedly have more gravitas with regards to what they say in this game, and yeah, I can see how people are satisfied with his dissection of rookie's post (helped by the fact that rookie's defense has been terrible). To me, personally, rookie reeks of inexperience, not scum. Mafia would certainly take advantage of the potential answers people give, but I think he was under the impression he was helping town. But considering this is newbie mafia, I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for now.
On June 06 2011 02:56 amazingxkcd wrote: It is quite clear that it can be seen who are the main talkers for both side. The only question is now how to distinguish between the two sides and how to act upon it
This was posted after he appeared on a lurker list, as pointed out by Alderean. A clear non contribution to appear active. (amazingxkcd later layed suspicions on when Alderean when he defended rookie).
He attacks iGrok, who was contributing the most analysis to the game, while not really posting analysis of anyone else at all.
Especially after Treadmill's post I quoted above, it appears that there was a bit of collaborating between the 3 of them (Kurmuri, amazingxkcd and senj). I'm finding this very suspicious and is my best reasoning to vote for amazingxkcd on a very chaotic day one.
[B]On June 07 2011 10:13 Impervious wrote: Now, I asked myself "have they been acting in the best interest of the town?", and the one that really stood out as a "no" was xkcd.
You've got my vote amazingxkcd.
I didn't put forth analysis? Hey let's see, i analysised kurumi and his statement with wanting a dt check and i stated my positiob on that, i analysised iGrok asking help from jackal which against is suspicious given they hadn't talked much to each other, i analysised rookie's position as very scum like which has different premises than jackal btw, and right Now i analysied impervious's wanting to lynch for information, which i am sure you know is scum behavior.
It is quite clear that 1. Rookie probably will die since so many people bandwagoned after mine and jackal's analysis.
So, am i being not helpfull, crjninja? I sure am. It is quite clear that you didn't read any of my post after the first two and came to a decidion similar to that of impervious, a decision made by feelings.
Has played before so he has an idea how it works. Very subtle in his fishing for blues. Only scum fish for blues. Wants to know what methods and tactics are used to catch scum. Wants us to share them with everybody. Claims it will help derail scum tactics. When it will obviously do the opposite.
Has all but disappeared since this post. I'm sure he'll show up momentarily to tell me how full of shit I am.
That's where my vote is going. I would recommend you all do the same.
Would you mind doing a post-by-post analysis of rookie44's posts? (There are only 3) Right now I can't really see how subtly he is fishing for blues. After all, we don't know how experienced he really is, so I would like a little more clarification as to your accusation.
Wait so you're saying instead of voting for new players being dumb you suggest us to vote for a player who has never played before on the forums (admittedly so) for suggesting that veteran players toss out potential strategies?
Sure it's a LITTLE scummy, but until I see some elaboration on your "very subtle in fishing for blues" I'm going to have to disagree with you.
You his scum buddy?
Just pointing out that I think your analysis is just as weak or weaker than all the others. Let's see how he responds.
You seem to be in a position to defend rookie44 when he has made quite a lot of scummy posts, particularly trying to take advantage of noobs to slip up their roles with
What i believe is the crucial difference is that we have large amounts of time for discussion. This also gives us the time to create a solid plan for using whatever roles we have effectively (it would seem that way).
Also, notices how already from the start of the game, he is asking for roles and wanted to lynch Treadmill without any sound proof besides making a suggestion about the freeloader wagon being loaded with mafias
It seems like if someone got a role in the mafia then they would be more anxious to start the game, and would be much more active in the very beginning. This is a mafia game for less experienced players so maybe that means there will be some metagame mistakes?
for these reasons and the ones given by jackal58 as well as kurumi, i am voting for Rookie44 on the basis of clear scummy post and trying to divert attention away from himself with circular logic ##Vote: Rookie44
also alderan, I am very suspicious of you for trying to defend this guy. Elaborate as to why you think he is not a scum.
And this, here, is amazingxkcd's analysis of rookie44. There's the line about "trying to divert attention away from himself" when rookie's post was waaay before there WAS any attention on him. Also, the point about "asking for roles" is bullshit - he was asking what we thought blues should do, which is very different.
Also, Alderan basically says "rookie seems little scummy but I'm not convinced" and xkcd starts attacking him. That and the co-ordinated timing of the votes (which is enough evidence by itself, for me), and earlier stuff posted by Alderan. Also this stupid rookie bandwagon. amazingxkcd looks very very red.
Your analysis of iGrok consisted you taking 'hey experienced player X, i would like to hear your thoughts on what I (experienced player Y) posted about Z.' and calling it suspicious. Igrok has been pushing for more analysis on players, because he knows the Jackal is an experienced player, you can logically conclude that by asking for his thoughts would elicit a decent response in order to generate discussion.
"also alderan, I am very suspicious of you for trying to defend this guy." It seems to me that your decision to be 'very suspicious' of alderean, singling him out and no one else for defending rookie, was made based on feelings.
I missed your analysis on impervious when I made my post, my bad. I want your thoughts on a lot more players please.
And could people stop misspelling my username please :p
EPT
