EPTI'm busy over this week but I should have some time to contribute to the game. After this I'll have tons of free time (I hope).
Newbie Mini Mafia I
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Rising_Phoenix
United States370 Posts
I'm busy over this week but I should have some time to contribute to the game. After this I'll have tons of free time (I hope). | ||
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Rising_Phoenix
United States370 Posts
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Rising_Phoenix
United States370 Posts
On April 23 2011 08:07 Conversion wrote: That just leaves phelix. Lots of discussion here guys... /sarcasm Well some people are probably busy with work or classes and some people are in all sorts of time zones, so give it some time. | ||
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Rising_Phoenix
United States370 Posts
Since we don't have any conducive evidence of anyone who is mafia yet I think it is a safe bet to vote on pHelix. Unless he comes out to defend himself he is a safe bet because: 1) If he is mafia he is hiding from lack of posting 2) If he is a townie he is snot contributing anything to the posting/discussion 3) If he is afk he's useless to everyone anyways I need to read some older mafia threads to get a better idea of how to post and tells for who is mafia or not. So, until other evidence suggests otherwise: ##Vote: pHelix Equilibria | ||
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Rising_Phoenix
United States370 Posts
Sorry I was at a horn concert and doing some other stuff as well. First, looking at this mathematically there are 11 players, 3 of which are mafia. If you randomly choose a person there is a approx. 27% chance of getting it right. However, choosing randomly is a bad idea since you never know if you're lynching an important member (cop or medic). The cop should look up a random member that isn't himself(obviously). That means there is a 3 in 10 chance of him being right (30%). If he is right, he should be able to hint to everyone else who is mafia. That leaves everyone else voting on another person. If you know who the cop/detective is, that leaves a 3 in 9 chance (33%) of being right. That's from 1/5 to 1/3 probability of being right. I don't know how well this works for day one but numbers are fun =]. ----- Break for other half--- Leadership for townies is essential, and right now it looks like Conversion and Freestalker are the two most active in leading conversation and topics. Unless one of them slips up, I'd refrain from killing either of them for now. Silent members have three possibilities: 1)They're trying to hide 2)They're lazy or disinterested in the game 3)It's a holiday and they're traveling Going through we have these people being pretty inactive: -jaminz: a few filler posts, nothing as contribution to the thread, pointing fingers -aScle: one post? -Enervate: very little posting as well These players have said very little or immediately start pointing fingers (Enervate) when they start pointing. However, it doesn't make sense to choose him because he hasn't bothered defending any accusations or contributing anything to support his claim. aScle and Jaminz have had very little to contribute. Their posts have little to no content and have not been active in general. Also, Jaminz has been very ready to point fingers but has little supporting evidence. I'll vote for him since he's just detracting from town synergy. So, unless he can defend himself: ##vote Jaminz | ||
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Rising_Phoenix
United States370 Posts
On April 24 2011 05:16 freestalker wrote: the cop doesn't have to role claim to find enough evidence and push the conviction on others. Roleclaiming is probably a good option only once there are like 1-2 mafia left and he knows who they are, or if mafia is claiming they are a cop and the real cop knows one other mafia member (netting 2 mafia for 1 cop), etc. If medic manages to figure out who cop is before he roleclaims, he should be the only target to heal. I was just looking at it mathmatically. I know cop would have to roleclaim for the probability thing to work, but it was more of a probability discussion than a strategy discussion. If cop hints too strongly he's a cop than he's going to get whacked probably since he has the ability to really push people to make a vote. | ||
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Rising_Phoenix
United States370 Posts
On April 24 2011 07:10 freestalker wrote: the voting ends in like 8 hours, right? I don't know how the whole day/night thing works. I assume it's gonna be 24 for day and 24 hours for night. I thought it might be 12 day/12 night but guess not =] | ||
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Rising_Phoenix
United States370 Posts
On April 24 2011 08:52 FezTheCaliph wrote: >_< totally didnt see the other two posts about that lol. So three hours until night and the vote breakdown is Enervate 1 pHelix Equilibra 2 Jaminz 2 HardCorey 1 As far as I know 1+2+2+1 =/= 11... Jaminz should post soon about his thoughts (as he said), hopefully it'll be before night. Still, so few people have voted it's kinda rediculous... Where is the participation!?!? | ||
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Rising_Phoenix
United States370 Posts
And here's another thought: The more we post trying to figure out mafia, the more the mafia is trying to figure out important roles: the doctor and the detective. Posting is a two sided sword. Post too much and people thing you're either trying to be too good or being too active for a reason, or too inactive you're trying to hard something. Sometimes an inactive poster is just and inactive poster for one reason or another. Those are the main reasons why I'm looking at inactive players. The game itself is important, but we have to remember people have real lives as well (or at least some of us do =P), so anyone can't be on or as active as we like. If you're on a plane right for 5-8 hours you can't really be active for that time or if your busy with family. | ||
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Rising_Phoenix
United States370 Posts
On April 25 2011 02:13 Enervate wrote: If I was mafia, wouldn't I be trying to defend myself more and vote for other people? In my opinion, mafia members have more motive to participate actively and try to vote people who aren't mafia members. I mean, mafia members must have realized by now that not writing huge long posts makes you look suspicious. ##Vote jaminz Mafia members would know I'm not a mafia member and try to vote me. Seems like 3 people have voted me so far. Hmmmmm. So your defense is that you're not trying to defend yourself? And then you decide to blame jaminz because he wrote a huge analytical post? It sounds like you're just blaming the guy for trying to help out the community. If anything it makes you sound like a whiny person trying to shift blame from someone who is helping to someone who has an unsubstantial post history. Looking at your previous posts in the thread I have seen nothing more than filler posts and useless joke posts until this most recent post. This either mean your a townie who is contributing very little or trying to hide something. Also, some people (such as myself) hate making small useless posts and only tries to post when they have something significant to contribute. This means I take the time to go into my thoughts and flesh out some idea rather than making a wild accusation. Jaminz post history was pretty small until post 151 (here) when he analyzed about everyone's posting history. Afterwords he has basically been defending his post and putting pressure on Enervate to defend himself since he hasn't been contributing much to the thread. To me this seems kinda suspicious, though he said that he's been busy with traveling. Considering his only significant post is quite comprehensive, I'm willing to take him at his word. It doesn't mean he isn't trying to hide, but it means that at least he's contributing to the thread. I'm willing to let him off for now but if he does anything suspicious I'll definitely start voting for him. So without further adieu (sp?) ##Unvote ##vote Enervate | ||
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Rising_Phoenix
United States370 Posts
On April 25 2011 05:14 Enervate wrote: Rising Phoenix's post is also suspicious to me because he says he takes time to make thoughtful posts but also says he's too lazy to count the votes. And here's some good faith, I'll try and tally the votes. Phelix Equlibria - 1 Enervate -4 ascle -1 jaminz -2 hardcorey-1 (This actually took me a really long time lol. It's kinda hard with all of the unvotes. I think it's accurate, though.) And you wonder why I said I was too lazy to count all the votes. It's easier to create content (i.e. forum posts) instead of looking through 5 pages of day1 posts trying to figure out what the actual voting count is. When you look at a specific person you can just go to their profile and look at their previous posts, but looking back at many pages of posts with lots of arguing and re-voting it's hard to keep tally of who is voting who. Also, I never said that I wasn't occasionally a hypocrite. On April 25 2011 05:48 Conversion wrote: Sorry guys, school's starting again (high school ftl) and I'm finishing up a lot of work. I'm on my iTouch right now so forgive this contentless post. I'm sticking with my vote on HardCorey since he's lurking hard atm, even with me pressuring him. I keep forgetting HardCorey is even in the game. He would make another good vote considering that he hasn't said anything at all. | ||
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Rising_Phoenix
United States370 Posts
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Rising_Phoenix
United States370 Posts
pHenix: + Show Spoiler + He's been posting semi-frequently but he hasn't had any major contributions to the thread. His biggest post is this: On April 24 2011 22:18 pHelix Equilibria wrote: After reading quite abit of these analyses. Its hard to make judgement calls when people are making these analysis out of 2 or 3 posts that are like 3 sentences long. If there isn't enough to information to draw conclusions from, the best bet would be the inactive. They had a days to say something. At the least we can keep the people interested in the game to stay and therefore more posts to look at. Thats my two cents. Every other post is is band-waggoning or minor filler posts. He latched on my idea to vote for Jaminz at the point when he's been inactive, though since then he(Jaminz) has made a major change since then. As far as I know pHenix has not made another post since this one, and as you can see it hasn't helped us much than to focus on inactives. If we look at motivations, it could mean one of two things: 1)pHenix is a blue and is just sitting in the middle ground to keep from getting mafia attention but enough to look like he's contributing 2)pHenix is mafia and trying to hide by only vaguely contributing. If we put pressure on him we might see how this develops. HardCorey: + Show Spoiler + He posted anything recently. Either he is disinterested in the game or is hiding. As a Blue he gets nothing from being completely nonresponsive. at most Mafia, at least an AFK player. FezTheCaliph: + Show Spoiler + Fez has been quite active posting. Nothing significant, however. This seems like potential blue or mafia behavior like pHenix if he is being conservative so he doesn't draw attention. He has been a nice cheerleader though and supportive/arguing different decision points. and has good reasons for his lynch votes. He also posted an extensive analysis on everyone here. Probable townie. Sirael + Show Spoiler + He has been pretty inactive, though this is barring the fact that most of us are in US and he is in Germany so he won't be active at a similar time than us. His largest post puts some suspicion on Jaminz and aScle. Also there are no posts from his account other than these few posts, so it's hard to put huge money on him. I think he's a townie. Freestalker: + Show Spoiler + One of the most active posters, and definitely very free about posting his thoughts and trying to get people to talk. He doesn't try to hide and he doesn't jump around in his opinions of other people. He seems to be rallying with Conversion as leaders for our group, and is becoming a pretty important member. I think he's a townie based off of this post: On April 25 2011 02:37 freestalker wrote: I am sorry mate but your post makes no sense. What you're saying is - mafia members have more motive to participate actively -- are you saying townies are the ones less active in an average game? if so, you are very wrong. Passivity and no posting is an optimal ground for mafia to hide, since if noone posts, they don't have to post either. If they don't post, they can't make slip-ups and can't be analyzed later. huge long posts = a lot of information to analyze, sooner or later. The more you type the more you can be analyzed, the more consistent you have to be if you're trying to pull off some trickery. And one of those three votes is mine that has been there for quite a while and is going to stay there unless you give me a good reason to change this. He argues that townies are and should be active and out posting, getting people to post, and calling out inactive members. Considering he is taking his own advice he is probably a townie. Which brings us too: Enervate: + Show Spoiler + Enervate seems to be a weird poster in the group. However, there are a few posts that stand out to me. especially his most recent ones. On April 25 2011 02:13 Enervate wrote: If I was mafia, wouldn't I be trying to defend myself more and vote for other people? In my opinion, mafia members have more motive to participate actively and try to vote people who aren't mafia members. I mean, mafia members must have realized by now that not writing huge long posts makes you look suspicious. ##Vote jaminz Mafia members would know I'm not a mafia member and try to vote me. Seems like 3 people have voted me so far. Hmmmmm. He argues that mafia members would vote against him and that there are three people voting against him, and therefore since he knows he's innocent and randomly attacks the person to put an argument against him. Looking at his previous post history, we don't see much in the way of activity though clearly in his TL profile he is an active poster (4.5 posts per day), yet he has posted very little in this game. Since then, he posted a minor analysis which has really said nothing more than Fez isn't mafia and everything else we've heard from other members. However, when voting for inactive he very happily joins in. On April 25 2011 07:18 Enervate wrote: Ok I guess I will follow the trend of voting for inactives as well. ##Unvote ##Vote HardCorey To me this looks pretty mafia-esque. I'm going to stick with my vote for him for now. Conversion + Show Spoiler + He has been a very active poster and really helped rally the town-members together along with free-stalker. His posts show that he's taking initiative and trying to get everyone involved, pointing out inactive players and getting them to posts as well. All in all, I think he's probably a townie. Jaminz + Show Spoiler + Since being active after traveling, He's been quite active as a poster, writing that super extensive analysis and really got the ball rolling for getting people to start posting their opinions on people. (bad sentence =D) Anyways, he's been active, but not taking as many leadership qualities as Free or Conversion, and has been a bit conservative on posting opinions. I think he's blue. vyro: + Show Spoiler + He has been fairly inactive lately. His last post was page 6 and since then he has contributed nothing. I feel like he's trying to slip through right now, but if he comes out and says something I'm not going throw him under a bus. I consider him a potential mafia. In time of writing this, he joined his vote against HardCorey. aScle: + Show Spoiler + Minor posting again, but more active currently than vryo. Haven't seen him make any big accusations or opinions yet and it's been two (real time) days. Another person to coax out and see what happens when he starts making larger posts. I spent more time writing this than most papers =P. I'm sticking with Enervate as my vote unless he gives me a really good reason to change. | ||
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Rising_Phoenix
United States370 Posts
Oh well, we're learning at least. | ||
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Rising_Phoenix
United States370 Posts
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Rising_Phoenix
United States370 Posts
Really right now I think we should be figuring out who to protect for night one. Here are possible people for doc to protect: 1) Free: most active poster, trying to figure out who jumped the bandwagon and likes to push pressure on other members to get them to contribute. Right now inactivity is our biggest weakness since it is allowing mafia to potentially hide as lurkers in the thread. 2) Jaminz: Excellent constructive posts, and is willing to argue a case if he thinks he's right and uses good arguments to prove his points. 3) Conversion: Helping us rally on a, to be honest, pretty bad loss. Even though Corey was definitely inactive, and therefore useless, it helps that someone is helping us push on to find who is mafia. 4) Myself: I'm selfish, and I want protection =]. Also, if Jaminz, myself, or aScle, who all voted for Enervate, were to die, than it would mean Enervate could be mafia trying to save his skin. | ||
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Rising_Phoenix
United States370 Posts
There is something interesting I am noticing. As we are chasing against Vyro there is someone completely missing from the conversation. Enervate. Think about who would most benefit from a change of focus. Enervate was 2nd highest in the vote count as lynching, Me, Jaminz, and aScle voted against him and remained against him. Because of Jaminz post against vyro, we're all suddenly attacking him. And to be honest, there is a pretty convincing case against him. But isn't it odd that Enervate, #2 on day1 lynch, hasn't posted anything since his defense? He gave no help in analysis and his defense of not being mafia were, to be honest, pretty bad. Looking at his post history he's been active in other threads so we know he's not dead, but he hasn't posted in this one. History here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/search.php?q=&t=c&f=-1&u=Enervate&gb=date If anyone has a good counterargument let me know, but for now he looks incredibly suspicious. | ||
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Rising_Phoenix
United States370 Posts
On April 27 2011 01:28 Enervate wrote: Ok I thought we weren't supposed to post in this thread during the 24hr night. Interesting turn of events. Right now, I get the feeling vyro might be mafia. He made his response to Jaminz's death really quickly, and tried to explain how the mafia could be framing him before anyone even accused him. This all coming from a player that says he is really inexperienced. An interesting point, definitely worth taking into consideration. However, I don't think the activity of his posting (right after Dr's post) 100% mean he's mafia. Also, he was addressing the points and accusations of Jaminz, who happened to by killed yesterday. It is obvious the mafia felt threatened by Jaminz and decided to kill him for one reason or another. That being said, his posting has been really inconsistent, as analyzed by Jaminz and Free. Jaminz post is especially well thought out, so I'm actually going to put is spoilers down here as review. + Show Spoiler + On April 26 2011 12:54 jaminz wrote: On the off chance I die tonight, I wanted to post this: I’m getting a pretty big scum read from vyro. One of his first posts: + Show Spoiler + On April 23 2011 17:12 vyro wrote: still feeling pretty noob. i don't feel like i have much to add right now, but i don't want to not post for fear of looking inactive or being one of those 'barely posts'. so here are some questions: how are clues usually worked into the game? what's the usual proportion of blues to greens? does posting less really suggest someone is mafia? what kind of lies are there for us to catch people with? it's not like mafia's going to falsely claim roles what does a usual townie plan look like? thanks in advance There are two things to not here that contnue throughout his posts: 1. He’s worried about looking inactive (the bolded part) 2. He’s seeking information on how people are going to play the game, what their tendencies are, and what a “normal” town looks like. I would argue that the first point is him being paranoid about being called out as inactive because he doesn’t want to appear as scum. The second point for me is more telling. He’s looking (consciously or not) to find out how a normal town plays this game, and overall how a normal game looks. This strikes me as suspicious, as I wouldn’t think a normal townie would be so worried about blending in, while this is exactly what a mafia member would do. + Show Spoiler + On April 24 2011 02:40 vyro wrote: something changed recently with my chrome, so only i can't see spoilers. whenever i try to show spoilers, instead of it expanding, the page refreshes. sorry for the unnecessary post on my part. i'm using firefox again, until i can figure out why spoilers aren't behaving correctly in chrome. i don't want to derail discussion further, but i would like to know how i can view things correctly in chrome again. ##Unvote to help contribute rather than look like a big noob/scum acting like noob, here's my opinion of players so far: phelix: knows physics and stuff. votes for an inactive rising_phoenix: hasn't said much minus basic logic in favor of lynching an inactive phelix hardcorey: hasn't contributed except for not wanting to lynch inactives fez: no substantive posts sirael: no substantive posts freestalker: seems to know what he's doing. interesting banter with enervate enervate: just one post, jokingly accusing freestalker conversion: probably the most experienced here. probably doesn't like me for asking dumb questions jaminz: wants to start random accusations? honestly, i also wouldn't know where to begin if it weren't for inactive either though.. ascle: no substantive posts me: immediately self-conscious after reading other mafia games and seeing how scummy my posts look so, the inactives to look out for so far are fez, sirael, and ascle not much to look at so far it seems Here we see him again mentioning that part of the reason he’s posting is so that he doesn’t seem like scum. I feel like a town member wouldn’t need to mention this, while a scum member would subconsciously put something like this in there without thinking. + Show Spoiler + On April 25 2011 11:35 vyro wrote: i think conversion's opinions would be more valid with a more experienced or active group. but most of his scum reads (which he has on most of the town) don't really seem to account for how new some of us are at this. so are we all voting on hardcorey now? what happens when he comes back and defends himself, what about when any inactive comes back? hopefully, we'll have more information after the first night Again it seems like he’s just trying to figure out what town can do so he can go along with it. This looks like mafia play to me. + Show Spoiler + On April 25 2011 13:39 vyro wrote: wow that's disappointing to say the least... though with his inactivity, would he have investigated somebody anyway? >_> is it wrong to discuss who we should medic at this point? This one should be obvious, but he’s blatantly asking who the medic should guard at this point. While this could mean he’s the medic, I doubt that’s the case since most mafia members should be smart enough to see this and immediately suspect him as being a medic. Thus, I think this is just blatant mafia behavior trying to find a consensus for who the medic can protect, so that mafia can avoid that person. + Show Spoiler + On April 26 2011 07:45 vyro wrote: hardcorey did make posts after all the accusations mounted on him and before the lynch. they were just about tsl3 and thorzain, not our mafia game since we are discussing who we should protect, i'd like to see conversion or freestalker protected. will those protected by the doctor know that they're protected by the doctor even if not targeted by mafia? @freestalker - how do i know he's joking? i assume he's joking with the :p face right now, most of the active posters (jaminz, freestalker, rising, conversion) seem pretty pro-town, constantly fishing for information. the fact that they have reads on me, but aren't going for outright accusations gives me some confidence surprisingly. however, i worry that if even one was mafia , he would know that i'm a townie and try to lay suspicion on me more heavily later on. bigger question marks for me still are phelix, fez, sirael, enervate, and ascle He mentions that he’s worried about 3 of the most active players coming after him. I think it’s a bit odd that he feels the need to put this in there, when I don’t feel like anyone has really accused him of anything big. There is scummy/mafia behavior in pretty much every one of his posts. If I die tonight (and even if I don’t), we need to take a long look at vyro. I also think Rising_Phoenix might be mafia. I'm least likely to be killed by the mafia since everyone thinks I'm mafia. And they want me to get lynched. No one has tried to defend me yet or even divert suspicion from me, so I think that should suggest to you I don't have ties with any other players right now, like mafia would. More thoughts to come in about 4 hours. This section itself raises a few questions. First of all, Jaminz initially posted suspicions about you being mafia and here was your INSTANT reaction until you bandwagoned on HardCorey. On April 25 2011 00:13 jaminz wrote: About the Day 1 lynch: I'll just say it, chances are we're going to end up lynching a townie. Just by looking at the numbers, theres a pretty small chance we're going to actually kill mafia on day one, especially with what little information we have. That being said, I think all we can do is go for who we think is the most suspicious person. So far, Enervate seems the most suspicious to me now that Sirael and aScle (good posts from you two, thanks for your analysis) have come back. I've got easter plans today so I won't be quite as active as I was yesterday, but I'll still definitely be checking the thread. For now, my vote is: ##Unvote ##Vote Enervate And then you posted right after: On April 25 2011 02:13 Enervate wrote: If I was mafia, wouldn't I be trying to defend myself more and vote for other people? In my opinion, mafia members have more motive to participate actively and try to vote people who aren't mafia members. I mean, mafia members must have realized by now that not writing huge long posts makes you look suspicious. ##Vote jaminz Mafia members would know I'm not a mafia member and try to vote me. Seems like 3 people have voted me so far. Hmmmmm. No one has tried to defend me yet or even divert suspicion from me, so I think that should suggest to you I don't have ties with any other players right now, like mafia would. Using the exact same argument as your just tried to use on me. Also, if you were considered mafia why would other mafia members come defend you if you were considered mafia? If they were going to defend you it would be obvious that they would also be considered mafia, especially since no one bothered to defend you after the first accusation. Also you offer no decent counterargument yet. Also, based on your argument there there is my logical counter argument. No one is joining me in analyzing your posting besides jaminz, and no one is saving me from digging my own grave if I'm wrong. So because I have suspicions with your posting behavior it means I'm a mafia? If anything it just means you feel threatened and are back-lashing as best you can. If you have a reason to believe someone else is mafia, post an actual reason, not because they're suspicious of you. If you're innocent, find a good argument to prove your innocent, don't just slander the person who is questioning you. | ||
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Rising_Phoenix
United States370 Posts
On April 27 2011 21:40 freestalker wrote: Alright, so we have again inactive phelix, sirael, enervate (who wanted to post analysis with no result), vyro (who wanted to post analysis as well and is inactive now). Seriously guys, this sucks. I will start the voting, I stated my reasons a page back. ##Vote Sirael discuss. I agree! Are we going to let scum destroy our way of life!!?!? Are we gonna let them run over our town!? I SAY NAY!!! FOR JAMINZ!!!! Anyways, for reasons previously discussed and from the fact he is hiding again, I'm going to vote Enervate. ##Vote Enervate | ||
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Rising_Phoenix
United States370 Posts
Enervate made it so easy to look like he's mafia I decided to take initiative and push on him. No hard feelings but it was easy to convince people. I made some mistakes but I would like to see an active player point them out =] GG all, hope to see you in other games! | ||
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Rising_Phoenix
United States370 Posts
On April 30 2011 00:29 jaminz wrote: Good game guys. I think it was generally the inactivity that killed us, though I surely didn't help with my misreads on vyro and Enervate. I guess I need to work on my analysis skills more than I thought. I'll take a look a the quicktopic sometime later. Well I did kinda help push on it =]. | ||
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