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On April 26 2011 02:13 Zorkmid wrote:Show nested quote +On April 26 2011 00:51 Ace wrote:
That will become clear soon, I'm just waiting for more lists.
Rean, why, Kenpachi, Zorkmid, Vain, darmousseh, and GGQ still have to post their lists. Ok, read through the whole thread, no idea what list it is that I have to post...
Imagine for a second you are the cell leader, who would you message and what would you tell them in that message? Pick 3 people ( assume in this imaginary world that anyone you choose to message is automatically a member of the mafia) .
I think I can guess as to why Ace wants this, but we'll see, just play along with and post it.
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God dammit, I figured out what sand was getting at. He is right, it can be done, the whole mafia team can be informed of who the other members are, in my method they won't find out who the GF is but they *will* know who the entire team is. I *think* its doable in five words too, assuming the team consists of five members or less.
Assume that by night 3 the whole mafia team will be aware of the other members are.
Time to work on lynching people I guess. Mr.Wiggles, have you figured out why my vote is on you yet?
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On April 26 2011 05:59 Tackster wrote:Show nested quote +On April 26 2011 05:36 GMarshal wrote:
God dammit, I figured out what sand was getting at. He is right, it can be done, the whole mafia team can be informed of who the other members are, in my method they won't find out who the GF is but they *will* know who the entire team is. I *think* its doable in five words too, assuming the team consists of five members or less.
Assume that by night 3 the whole mafia team will be aware of the other members are.
Time to work on lynching people I guess. Mr.Wiggles, have you figured out why my vote is on you yet? How does revealing this help town?
We now know we have to work on the assumption that the mafia will have all their names by day 3.
I think thats a pretty relevant piece of knowledge for us to have, no?
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Good, wiggles, I like your response to pressure!
Onto someone else who I want to post.
Hi Eiii! Its nice to see you again. I find your lack of posts... disturbing.
Time to give you a motivational push I think.
##Unvote
##Vote: Wiggles
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oh and happy birthday too!
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wow, fail
##Unvote: Mr.WIggles
##Vote: Eiii
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Jackal, I like your accusation, however I would leave tnkted alone for now as if he has a weird role as he claims the mafia is much more likely to hit him, I would much, much rather hit someone who isn't posting or is lurking, trying to avoid attention. I propose Eiii who has yet to contribute anything at all. To me, in this setting its a huge tell as it reeks of scum waiting to be contacted by the cell leader. I would be happy to hit any of the other lurkers though, e.g. Kenpachi.
Also I am getting a weird vibe from Mr.Wiggles
taking a quick look at his posts
On April 25 2011 11:53 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Keep in mind that scum can kill scum as well.
I think something we should watch out for is people trying to manipulate or send messages to scum about how to act, as that will help us pick out the GF. As soon as a few scum start popping up, we should be able to draw connections between them and other players, and hopefully find a common point in the GF. The hard part will be when we kill the GF, because then a new one is selected. When that happens we have to be careful to observe who is changing their behavior towards other players unexpectedly, because this could be a sign of the new GF who suddenly has all the other agent names.
I think this is making an obvious post in alot of words, I'm not sure its FoS worthy, as alot of this type of posting is going on, but it set off my radar
On April 25 2011 12:29 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Of course scum-hunting is going to be the best way to find scum, but breadcrumbs are also a good way of finding out the cell leader. It looks like he can only send one PM to one of his people per morning/evening, which means that he's going to have to find a way to get information out to them otherwise, or else he'll have no way to contact more than a couple of them. We can't really rely on the connections between players in this game, so if someone starts acting weird after PM time, maybe they're scum. Also, when we kill the GF, we can go back and look at who he was trying to direct, and who he was paying special attention to, and how.
interestingly enough its a repetition of a previous post, it says the evident "scum hunting is how we find scum" but still encourages us to look for breadcrumbs. I like the comment on the GF but the rest of the post seems like filler trying to look like something is being added, again, not enough to make me yell "scum" but its making my gut uncomfortable, this is the real reason I put a pressure vote on wiggles, rather than inactive he seemed to me to be lurking
On April 26 2011 07:20 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Show nested quote +On April 25 2011 14:32 Ace wrote:On April 25 2011 12:29 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Of course scum-hunting is going to be the best way to find scum, but breadcrumbs are also a good way of finding out the cell leader. It looks like he can only send one PM to one of his people per morning/evening, which means that he's going to have to find a way to get information out to them otherwise, or else he'll have no way to contact more than a couple of them. We can't really rely on the connections between players in this game, so if someone starts acting weird after PM time, maybe they're scum. Also, when we kill the GF, we can go back and look at who he was trying to direct, and who he was paying special attention to, and how. eh how? The point of bread crumbs is to prove something before it happens via hidden clues. So how in the world is that going to help us find the Cell Leader? I'm just thinking we can look for things that are people trying to direct mafia. We can assume that the GF is going to find a way to make himself known to his agents. This is why stuff like: Show nested quote +On April 25 2011 15:04 darmousseh wrote:On April 25 2011 11:41 Vain wrote:On April 25 2011 11:38 Jackal58 wrote:
Well Gman. Since it appears that only you and I are playing and I know what I am huge fos on you.
In other words I'm going to bed. Hey, i'm still here too. Am going to bed now BECAUSE ITS 5 AM HERE  btw, maby dt's should double check if they get that not info sufficient thingy if they have enough time and the player looks trusted. oh well, we'll see how it plays out. Goodnight! Vain, I hope you aren't a dt because that is the most obvious blue tell ever in my opinion. Looks somewhat scummy to me because of: Show nested quote +On April 25 2011 11:53 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Keep in mind that scum can kill scum as well.
I think something we should watch out for is people trying to manipulate or send messages to scum about how to act, as that will help us pick out the GF. As soon as a few scum start popping up, we should be able to draw connections between them and other players, and hopefully find a common point in the GF. The hard part will be when we kill the GF, because then a new one is selected. When that happens we have to be careful to observe who is changing their behavior towards other players unexpectedly, because this could be a sign of the new GF who suddenly has all the other agent names. Say Darm is scum, this could be him posting a potential hit target for the other cell members, in saying who he thinks is blue. As a general rule, I don't think people should point out who they think is blue or not. If they do an analysis, and figure someone is blue, they can just as easily call them town to protect them from sniping.
I *really* like this point, I though it was evident as well, but it merits pointing out and wiggles gets a town point from me for making this point, as it warrants saying, on the other hand though it makes it obvious for any scum that missed it, which was my reason for leaving it there and hoping it stayed buried.Show nested quote +On April 26 2011 00:08 GMarshal wrote:
Also I suppose its time I started generating discussion.
##Unvote
##Vote: Mr.Wiggles
do you know why I'm voting for you Mr.Wiggles? Well, pressure doesn't work very well when the person isn't around to see it. :p I think you're voting for me because I made a couple posts, went to bed, and have been at school until just recently, so it looks like I'm lurking/inactive. This isn't really the case, I'm reading the thread, just a lot of my reactions and ideas will be delayed and concentrated in a few posts instead of all over until two days from now. That, or you think one of my ideas is scummy, but I just pointed out what I mean by leading the cell and breadcrumbs if that's the one you're worried about.
This is actually the reaction I would expect from a town player, if wiggles were scum I would expect a more panicked reaction, its not a very solid tell but it partially assuages the churning in my stomach that his earlier posts caused As for breadcrumbs, you can look for people posting odd things, pictures, rhymes, ciphers, etc. Changing their signature and/or profile, writing things with the first words of every sentence or every line, stuff like that. It might be clever for scum to try, but I'm not going to obsess over it. I'm just saying that if there's something super apparent, it could easily be a mafia breadcrumb. I think this paragraph is redundant, no mafia is going to outright post a cypher or a easy breadcrumb like the first word of every sentence/line (and yes, I am checking for that) Now, to answer Ace. My three picks (with reasoning and follow-up) would go: 1. Ace. He's an experienced player and has a reputation as a good analyzer/arguer. 2. GMarshal. I have experience playing games with him, and think he's a good all-around player. 3. Jackal58. He tunnels a lot, and is a very aggressive poster. It would be good to get him in the know so I could use that to my advantage, and to avoid friendly fire. Message: "Follow PI Bear, Profile" 19 characters, 4 words. All they'd have to do is look into my profile, and see the picture I have there right now, as well as the first joke sentence underneath, "Hi, I'm Mr. Wiggles the Detective Bear! No matter the type of grisly discovery, I'll always be first on the scene! I've barely been stumped in my entire career!". This would easily alert them to my identity. This part triggers my gut once again, as its thought out way in depth, it also spells out what a non-obvious message means, which in my mind is explaining it to any of his scumbuddies to whom he might have sent the message. I'm not willing to FoS based on that but it makes me more uneasy
The next thing I would do, is at some point, either post a scumlist that contains all of the sleeper agents, +/-1, or a scumlist that contains none of them +/-1. I would be sure not to provide much reasoning, and play down it's importance, so that no one would take it too seriously. I'd then hope the one's I've contacted would be smart enough to figure out that if they're on it, others are, or if they're not on it, no one else is, as they know I'm the Cell Leader, and must be up to something.
Again detailing his plan in detail and also including how he is going to be communicating with his buddies if he is scum. If wiggles ever posts a scumlist I'd be interested to see the alignment of some of its members, as its possible wiggles has just detailed his plan so his buddies can see it. Again, it could be that wiggles has thought this out in depth, which is good, or it could be he is scum. Its not a tell for me either way, but it does make me decidedly uneasy Follow up messages would be: "PI Bear, Profile, List (or else Not List)" to notify everyone within the shortest amount of time of who I am, and to look at the list, or not at the list.
Its a long post, so my comments in bold inside the quote
Verdict: Keep your eyes peeled for wiggles, something about him seems off to me. FoS
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On April 27 2011 01:01 Zorkmid wrote:
Sandroba, I think you're town. You thought the same thing about me last game too and you were town then.
By the way, you're dead wrong again.
Weigh in then please, who do you think is mafia? Why? Lynch is in less than 10 hours, who would you like to see dead?
While I'm throwing questions around, if you were a DT who would you check tonight? If you were a busdriver what two people would you swap? why?
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On April 27 2011 04:27 Ace wrote:
Because I feel you are the most scummy player in the game so far. Why else would I vote for you?
Can you substantiate why you feel that way? I'd really like to hear the reasoning behind why you think he is the most likely to be scum.
Oh, and Eiii and all the other lurkers, post more before I get annoyed
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Sorry Ace, but I think your analysis is faulty, I don't see Jackal as being scum atm. It could be my relative inexperience, or it might just be that we disagree on that, but I think that at the moment jackal is a terrible lynch, at the very least he is being vocal, which is much, much more than what we can say for many of the players in this thread.
I know I've said this many times before, but I think our best call today is to lynch a lurker, with a non-unifed mafia it also means they have no way of knowing if they are lynching a buddy, which makes it much less likely to be misdirected than the usual attempts at day 1 inactive lynches.
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My lynch suggestions:
Eiii
Kenpachi
GGQ
all three of these are actively lurking and not contributing or trying to scumhunt, this is where I think mafia is trying to hide themselves, and even if we end up lynching a townie, it ends up encouraging more active posting from these people
as far as zorkmid goes, my opinion on him is neutral atm, I think he might be a little overwhelmed by the number of new names, and he has a decent number of posts compared to those three, so I'm willing to give him a day to slip up if he is scum.
My vote is already on Eiii, so I'm going to keep it on there for now.
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On April 27 2011 08:27 GGQ wrote:Show nested quote +On April 27 2011 00:26 GMarshal wrote:
Jackal, I like your accusation, however I would leave tnkted alone for now as if he has a weird role as he claims the mafia is much more likely to hit him You are approaching this like a regular game. Because of the agent mechanic, the other mafia don't know if he is mafia or blue, so they won't risk hitting him.
I disagree, I think mafia are going to hit him anyway, because his role has provided something they can all see as a focus point. Cell agents all vote together for who they want to kill, almost like a mini lynch, with no way of knowing who is scum or town, so they are going to go for people they perceive to be playing the way town would/not they way scum would. What kind of retarded scum would publicly breadcrumb? Therefore the agents will conclude he isn't one of them and kill him, since they know he isn't a member. My thought process if I were an agent at least.
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@Jackal, Ace is a scary player on either side, mafia or town, his town play is not up to his mafia play, but thats because his scum play is miles ahead of what almost anyone can pull off. His ability to mislead and misdirect the town is something to be terrified of and if he is mafia we can expect him to be ready to start crushing the town soon, as a policy, every dt in the universe should be checking him. I'm not familiar with his town play other than "from this point forward I'll talk with my guns" and knowing Qatol was mafia in the one were Qatol was the scum mayor, that was the game where he did the whole "posters who are invisible to me" thing too. Overall Ace is a vet, no-one should underestimate his play, town or mafia.
I find it mildly amusing that I posted the names of three people as inactive and all three of them popped up sooner rather than later. Almost as if they were watching the thread...
Ace, you say that lurking is "old meta" but I have found that in my experience even experienced players tend to lurk as mafia, since its simply much more comfortable/you are less likely to slip up, especially without a team giving direction/help I think many of these players might decide to lurk, or at least be mildly inactive. You seem to think jackal is scum, is there any other player you think is likely to be mafia as well?
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I realize its night time, but that is no reason to shut up and stop discussion, we have all of twenty four hours to start deciding things like lynches and blue direction. For the sake of discussion I am going to post a list of people I think need DT checks, vigi shots and medic protects.
DT Checks
Jackal58 - Ace thinks Jackal has been acting scummy, for this reason alone I think a dt should take a look at jackal, the results would be interesting either way
Mr. Wiggles - I already pointed out that I am suspicious of him, it would be nice to know definitely, as I know wiggles has the potential to contribute to the town if he is town aligned, if he is not he is very good about scooting along with large vacuous posts
GMarshal - DTs should aways check the most vocal players. I consider myself a vocal player, therefore I should be checked
Ace - its Ace, as policy he should be checked. Also I find his retraction of the vote on jackal to be unexpected, from seeing previous games with Ace I would have expected him to stick to his guns with the lynch.
Impervious- he has many posts, yet oddly enough, not a single one of them stuck in my mind, to me this means his posts have been empty enough to not be memorable, I think that merits a check
Vigilante Shots - now its *really* debated whether it is best for vigilantes to shoot night one or not, if the vigi is not in imminent danger and is not confident on his mafia kill I belive in saving the shot for later, however some people subscribe to using it for people they would lynch on policy, e.g. liars, or lurkers. If a vigi *had* to fire tonight I would think the best shot would be at an inactive who might be lurking scum. That is the gist of my suggestions on here
Eiii- Lurking, pops up to defend himself, resumes lurking, not a town asset at the moment, so we can do without him
GGQ- more of the same deal with Eiii, lurking inactively, hasn't really weighed in on anything.
why- with a grand total of four posts all he has done is attack jackal, I dont think he is contributing and we can do without him
Vain- I see every one of his posts as either a rehash of old ideas or a non-contribution
darm- because I think it would be hilarious to have him die day one this game too (don't actually shoot him for that, it was a joke...)
Medic Protects
GMarshal- I dont want to die, please dont let me die, I'll go through mafia withdrawal again and it wont be pretty
Ace- he is Ace, high profile target and all that, I want him around in the late game.
Jackal (maybe) - he is a great endgame player, and I wouldn't mind having him around to scum-hunt in the late game, I don't know how likely it is he will be targeted though.
other than that I don't know who scum might go after to be honest, as they risk hitting one of their own whatever they choose to do
Alright, so take a gander and debate my list up and down, who did I forget to include ? Who did I include who shouldn't be there?
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On April 28 2011 00:36 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On April 27 2011 22:49 GMarshal wrote:
Ace - its Ace, as policy he should be checked. Also I find his retraction of the vote on jackal to be unexpected, from seeing previous games with Ace I would have expected him to stick to his guns with the lynch.
I don't know how many games of me you've read but I don't always stick to my vote, especially not Day 1. Also with no majority lynch someone can end up dying with a couple of votes. Like Kenpachi who only died with 3 votes. How come no one went back to look at it? Zorkmid actually ended up deciding Kenpachi's fate. Mr.Wiggles would have gotten lynched but the vote switch ended up taking out Kenpachi instead. He's also a good target to DT check and may actually be the best one. @Impervious: Acting weird how?
I realize you dont always stick to your vote, I just expected you to argue harder for your target. what game do you think exemplifies your town play the best? I'd like to go back and read it to try to get a slight grasp on your town meta, tbh most of the games I've read where I've focused on your play are ones where you were mafia.
Its interesting how our DT lists overlap, and you bring up a good point Zorkmid, I hadn't really taken a good look at the votes. Its relevant to note how scattered the votes are, the clear sign of a disunited town and a disunited mafia, we need to work on that tomorrow, as the current vote list reveals little information outside of what Ace just pointed out.
I think your GF target list was a clever idea, I don't know how much it helps, but it did give interesting results.
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On April 28 2011 02:45 Zorkmid wrote:Show nested quote +On April 28 2011 02:37 sandroba wrote:
Last game, I made it very clear I though zorkmid was town since day1.
You over tunneled me for 2 entire games, you're just bad. Reading your posts is a waste of vitrious and aqueous humor
Such level of aggressiveness, you really dont like the heat do you?
So tell me, Mr. "I dont give a fuck if inactives die" what have you contributed to this town? Other than "I agree" I mean.
Hmm, I'm starting to think you might be a fine addition for a vigi hit, it would certainly save us alot of arguing tomorrow...
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batman is here!
Hi bum!
Quickly what are your top 2 scum reads?
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On April 28 2011 07:48 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
My scum play so far has just involved never being fingered as scum :p
I'll fix that, from now on, day 1 you'll get an analysis definitely proving your scummy nature, even if you aren't in that game 
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On April 28 2011 08:00 Jackal58 wrote:Show nested quote +On April 28 2011 06:28 bumatlarge wrote:Wow this is confusing, but I think I got the basic gist of the mechanics. Ace, wouldnt the name game be kinda helpful for CL to make a list and be able to point out multiple persons without naming names? And jackal is the traffic thing a breadcrumb lol? I've been reading through thread keeping my eyes open for non-thread related stuff just in case, and you spend a nice chunk on discussing traffic lol... Kinda suspicious of Ace to what he is suggesting and how it helps town. Jackal next because of the traffic, and I haven't read into anyone else, except tnkted, who will just sit in a corner sprinkling his little crumbs everywhere. Aren't we supposed to try to prevent everyone from being able to breadcrumb, not give them the best opportunities to do so? Maybe I missed key stuff, but I don't really have much time for a full analysis yet. I'm stuck in traffic  It took me a minute to figure out what you were referring to. My ride home last night was brutal. It was back to the norm tonight. Just long.
I'll be moving to lynch the next person to refer to traffic, ride, or any driving terms, hell any non-mafia conversations will be suspicious! this isn't your personal blogs section, whatever some people may have believed in the past
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EPT
