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Thanks a lot GM.
I'm getting more and more tempted to vote coag. flamewheel got a point in saying coag hasn't done much scum hunting in this game. He has mainly been quiet, which made me put him as blue, but a veteran has no insensitive to avoid attention. flamewheel didn't seem overly concerned with not getting mayor yesterday, it could have been because his plan was primary to see the reactions to his assassin claim, and secondary to get the seat.
In any case, lynching coag now means clarity. If we decide to leave it to assassins, we risk them only role checking instead of hitting flamewheel, so we would have to deal with this situation again tomorrow. Coag is already outted, meaning if he is veteran, he won't be able to make use of his extra life.
The only thing that really concerns me with lynching coag now is we might waste another lynch, and day of scum hunting, but I guess the possible benefits outweights this risk.
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On April 14 2011 03:39 Jackal58 wrote:
I know the math is bullshit.
Lol, that sounded a lot like that "always bet on black on roulette, and double the bet ammount each time, when it flips black you win everything back + more!".
Or, if I flip a coin 9 times and it lands "heads", what are the odds of it landing heads on the 10th throw?
This is unrelated, as I'm obviously scum, but it's funny that you mentioned it.
P.S.: I am town.
...and claiming Assassin!
But don't lynch me cuz I'm DT.
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On April 14 2011 03:47 CubEdIn wrote:Lol, that sounded a lot like that "always bet on black on roulette, and double the bet ammount each time, when it flips black you win everything back + more!". Or, if I flip a coin 9 times and it lands "heads", what are the odds of it landing heads on the 10th throw? This is unrelated, as I'm obviously scum, but it's funny that you mentioned it. P.S.: I am town. ...and claiming Assassin! But don't lynch me cuz I'm DT.
Actually, you are indeed slightly more likely than anyone else in the game to be mafia since all of our roles were 'chosen' when it was 8/40 mafia, and your current role was 'chosen' when it was 8/35.
However I think this is a dumb way to hunt scum.
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+ Show Spoiler +On April 14 2011 03:42 Lemonwalrus wrote:Show nested quote +On April 14 2011 03:27 Kavdragon wrote:
Edit: Join me on the deadperson's IRC! (You too tnkted!) If that was at me...I'm not dead yet. But when I am I will. It was directed at Cubedin, but I guess he's not dead. On April 14 2011 03:38 BrownBear wrote:Show nested quote +On April 14 2011 03:06 CubEdIn wrote:In all fairness, I came in as a replacement during the night, posted twice, and died. I deserve to live at least a day.  ...had had absolutely no bearing on the outcome of the game before he died, so it was as though he hadn't played... Totally describes me. Sub please. + Show Spoiler +(Ok, I'll try to stop now.)
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No kav you're dead go be dead.
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On April 14 2011 03:49 Lemonwalrus wrote:Show nested quote +On April 14 2011 03:47 CubEdIn wrote:On April 14 2011 03:39 Jackal58 wrote:
I know the math is bullshit. Lol, that sounded a lot like that "always bet on black on roulette, and double the bet ammount each time, when it flips black you win everything back + more!". Or, if I flip a coin 9 times and it lands "heads", what are the odds of it landing heads on the 10th throw? This is unrelated, as I'm obviously scum, but it's funny that you mentioned it. P.S.: I am town. ...and claiming Assassin! But don't lynch me cuz I'm DT. Actually, you are indeed slightly more likely than anyone else in the game to be mafia since all of our roles were 'chosen' when it was 8/40 mafia, and your current role was 'chosen' when it was 8/35. However I think this is a dumb way to hunt scum.
Actually, no. I'm a substitute for someone whose role was also chosen when there were 8/40 mafia.
I got his role, I didn't get assigned a new one. 
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On April 14 2011 04:01 CubEdIn wrote:Show nested quote +On April 14 2011 03:49 Lemonwalrus wrote:On April 14 2011 03:47 CubEdIn wrote:On April 14 2011 03:39 Jackal58 wrote:
I know the math is bullshit. Lol, that sounded a lot like that "always bet on black on roulette, and double the bet ammount each time, when it flips black you win everything back + more!". Or, if I flip a coin 9 times and it lands "heads", what are the odds of it landing heads on the 10th throw? This is unrelated, as I'm obviously scum, but it's funny that you mentioned it. P.S.: I am town. ...and claiming Assassin! But don't lynch me cuz I'm DT. Actually, you are indeed slightly more likely than anyone else in the game to be mafia since all of our roles were 'chosen' when it was 8/40 mafia, and your current role was 'chosen' when it was 8/35. However I think this is a dumb way to hunt scum. Actually, no. I'm a substitute for someone whose role was also chosen when there were 8/40 mafia. I got his role, I didn't get assigned a new one.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem
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On April 14 2011 03:49 Lemonwalrus wrote:Show nested quote +On April 14 2011 03:47 CubEdIn wrote:On April 14 2011 03:39 Jackal58 wrote:
I know the math is bullshit. Lol, that sounded a lot like that "always bet on black on roulette, and double the bet ammount each time, when it flips black you win everything back + more!". Or, if I flip a coin 9 times and it lands "heads", what are the odds of it landing heads on the 10th throw? This is unrelated, as I'm obviously scum, but it's funny that you mentioned it. P.S.: I am town. ...and claiming Assassin! But don't lynch me cuz I'm DT. Actually, you are indeed slightly more likely than anyone else in the game to be mafia since all of our roles were 'chosen' when it was 8/40 mafia, and your current role was 'chosen' when it was 8/35. However I think this is a dumb way to hunt scum.
Was entirely my point. So is taking the word of a confirmed liar.
Coag may very well be scum. How the hell would you know? Because he's aggressive? Because he's not as aggressive? BECAUSE HE TYPES IN CAPS sometimes? Because he had pizza for lunch?
If anybody can seriously tell me that they can read coag please do. And back it with analysis that is not based upon FW's.
I am not defending Coag. He may very well be scum. If PMs were allowed in this game I could probably tell you with damn near 100% certainty what he was. But they are not so I'm stuck reading his capitalized dick swinging just like the rest of you. And that is exactly how he plays in every game regardless of his alignment.
Let a vigi shoot him. End of. We're wasting time. I'm done on the subject.
I agree with Barundar. Either GMarshall or DocH is scum.
I'm leaning towards GMarshall. When he was scum with me in Mini V he played as the consummate nice guy. Very little FoSing. Lots of agreeing and complimenting other players. I see some of that at work here. I still see some of his normal town play though. But the way he plays scum matches more with the way he's playing this time around.
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On April 14 2011 04:02 Lemonwalrus wrote:Show nested quote +On April 14 2011 04:01 CubEdIn wrote:On April 14 2011 03:49 Lemonwalrus wrote:On April 14 2011 03:47 CubEdIn wrote:On April 14 2011 03:39 Jackal58 wrote:
I know the math is bullshit. Lol, that sounded a lot like that "always bet on black on roulette, and double the bet ammount each time, when it flips black you win everything back + more!". Or, if I flip a coin 9 times and it lands "heads", what are the odds of it landing heads on the 10th throw? This is unrelated, as I'm obviously scum, but it's funny that you mentioned it. P.S.: I am town. ...and claiming Assassin! But don't lynch me cuz I'm DT. Actually, you are indeed slightly more likely than anyone else in the game to be mafia since all of our roles were 'chosen' when it was 8/40 mafia, and your current role was 'chosen' when it was 8/35. However I think this is a dumb way to hunt scum. Actually, no. I'm a substitute for someone whose role was also chosen when there were 8/40 mafia. I got his role, I didn't get assigned a new one. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem
I am aware of that lovely gem, "thank you for the extra 33%!", but I don't see why it applies here. I'm confuzzled.
Are you saying that the mafia removed 4 people, by being aware of what role the guy I've replaced had? It's a bit of a strech. But do please explain, I'm always open to having my math mind tickled. (and no, I'm not good at maths, I just like statistics)
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On April 14 2011 04:14 CubEdIn wrote:Show nested quote +On April 14 2011 04:02 Lemonwalrus wrote:On April 14 2011 04:01 CubEdIn wrote:On April 14 2011 03:49 Lemonwalrus wrote:On April 14 2011 03:47 CubEdIn wrote:On April 14 2011 03:39 Jackal58 wrote:
I know the math is bullshit. Lol, that sounded a lot like that "always bet on black on roulette, and double the bet ammount each time, when it flips black you win everything back + more!". Or, if I flip a coin 9 times and it lands "heads", what are the odds of it landing heads on the 10th throw? This is unrelated, as I'm obviously scum, but it's funny that you mentioned it. P.S.: I am town. ...and claiming Assassin! But don't lynch me cuz I'm DT. Actually, you are indeed slightly more likely than anyone else in the game to be mafia since all of our roles were 'chosen' when it was 8/40 mafia, and your current role was 'chosen' when it was 8/35. However I think this is a dumb way to hunt scum. Actually, no. I'm a substitute for someone whose role was also chosen when there were 8/40 mafia. I got his role, I didn't get assigned a new one. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem I am aware of that lovely gem, "thank you for the extra 33%!", but I don't see why it applies here. I'm confuzzled. Are you saying that the mafia removed 4 people, by being aware of what role the guy I've replaced had? It's a bit of a strech. But do please explain, I'm always open to having my math mind tickled. (and no, I'm not good at maths, I just like statistics)
Hm, this feels like derailing, so people analyzing the thread just skip over this post.
when our roles were given out, everyone had 8/40 chance to become mafia.
If we assume that latrommi or whatever his name was' inactivity is unrelated to what his role was, we can assume that he also had and 8/40 chance of being mafia.
(in this analogy, mafia = car, and town = donkey)
when 5 townies died, it was like they revealed 5 donkeys.
then you were 'given the option to switch your door'
you did switch, and even though latrommi had an 8/40 chance originally, because a bunch of donkeys were eliminated, switching your door will always make it more likely that you reveal a car.
However, I am not going to use this as a diagnostic tool, and no one else should either.
There are too many unknowns at play for this to be a pure mathematical recreation of the monty hall problem.
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On April 14 2011 03:06 CubEdIn wrote:In all fairness, I came in as a replacement during the night, posted twice, and died. I deserve to live at least a day.
I was suppose to replace Pandain, but he died too, so I'm now ON.
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On April 14 2011 04:22 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On April 14 2011 03:06 CubEdIn wrote:In all fairness, I came in as a replacement during the night, posted twice, and died. I deserve to live at least a day. I was suppose to replace Pandain, but he died too, so I'm now ON.
Hi ON. A bunch of people suspected you day 1, but now suddenly think you are useful since you are called LSB. Have you caught up yet?
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On April 14 2011 04:21 Lemonwalrus wrote:Show nested quote +On April 14 2011 04:14 CubEdIn wrote:On April 14 2011 04:02 Lemonwalrus wrote:On April 14 2011 04:01 CubEdIn wrote:On April 14 2011 03:49 Lemonwalrus wrote:On April 14 2011 03:47 CubEdIn wrote:On April 14 2011 03:39 Jackal58 wrote:
I know the math is bullshit. Lol, that sounded a lot like that "always bet on black on roulette, and double the bet ammount each time, when it flips black you win everything back + more!". Or, if I flip a coin 9 times and it lands "heads", what are the odds of it landing heads on the 10th throw? This is unrelated, as I'm obviously scum, but it's funny that you mentioned it. P.S.: I am town. ...and claiming Assassin! But don't lynch me cuz I'm DT. Actually, you are indeed slightly more likely than anyone else in the game to be mafia since all of our roles were 'chosen' when it was 8/40 mafia, and your current role was 'chosen' when it was 8/35. However I think this is a dumb way to hunt scum. Actually, no. I'm a substitute for someone whose role was also chosen when there were 8/40 mafia. I got his role, I didn't get assigned a new one. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem I am aware of that lovely gem, "thank you for the extra 33%!", but I don't see why it applies here. I'm confuzzled. Are you saying that the mafia removed 4 people, by being aware of what role the guy I've replaced had? It's a bit of a strech. But do please explain, I'm always open to having my math mind tickled. (and no, I'm not good at maths, I just like statistics) + Show Spoiler +
Hm, this feels like derailing, so people analyzing the thread just skip over this post.
when our roles were given out, everyone had 8/40 chance to become mafia.
If we assume that latrommi or whatever his name was' inactivity is unrelated to what his role was, we can assume that he also had and 8/40 chance of being mafia.
(in this analogy, mafia = car, and town = donkey)
when 5 townies died, it was like they revealed 5 donkeys.
then you were 'given the option to switch your door'
you did switch, and even though latrommi had an 8/40 chance originally, because a bunch of donkeys were eliminated, switching your door will always make it more likely that you reveal a car.
However, I am not going to use this as a diagnostic tool, and no one else should either.
There are too many unknowns at play for this to be a pure mathematical recreation of the monty hall problem.
Oh I see, so the choice is the first guy I replaced, and now I switched my door to guy #2.
I guess that kinda makes sense. But if you look at it that way, it's also true that everyone else's chance of being red increased as well. Not as much, I get it, but still, funny!
Thanks for explaining!
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Night 1
![[image loading]](http://imgur.com/GWc7b.jpg)
Click me for larger size!
I'm inclined to believe the fourth case, that Flamewheel is SK and realized after loosing the election he has to do something drastic to try to throw off the other SKs.
As the same time though, I'd assume that SKs would have DT checked Flamewheel night 1 so it doesn't really matter in the first place.
Note SK=Ninja/Assassin as it's easier to write. And because I didn't read the OP carefully enough before I made the picture
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Oh wait, I just realized something. Give me a moment, I'll change the graphic
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LSB, Assassin's couldnt use any powers night one, so if FW is black he couldnt check coagulation, and other assassins couldnt check him.
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Correction!
![[image loading]](http://imgur.com/78a7C.jpg)
Lynch Flamewheel! It's a win win!
The situation we are looking at is probably situation two. Flamewheel is Mafia, Coagulation is Town
Why is this believable?
Remember, Flamewheel is still alive today. This must mean that the SKs didn't shoot him. After all, the SKs have a large incentive to shoot Flamewheel, if they succeed they get their banhammer back.
This is explained by Flamewheel posting that there are three ninjas. Sks didn't believe him so they didn't shoot him.
But now why is he making these wild statements? Because he is mafia. Consider Flamewheels options if he really was DT.
Day1, he wants to be mayor. Would you claim DT or Assassin? Obviously you'd claim DT. Although it might get you roleblocked, being an Assassin will also get your roleblocked.
Day2, if he actually was DT and got a red check, would he publically claim in thread that he was DT? No! If he does so he's going to be hit night 3 and roleblocked. Instead he should just do the standard do lots and lots of analysis on Coagulation.
Now think if he is mafia.
Day1: How would he run for mayor? He doesn't have the 'name' that Gmarshal and Doc has because he is smurfing and the players here are relativity new. So he puts together a really convoluted claim.
Day2: He knows his time is short so he tries his best to cause chaos before he is dead.
TLDR: Flamewheel is not playing like a DT and therefore isn't one
##Vote: Flamewheel
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On April 14 2011 04:42 GGQ wrote:
LSB, Assassin's couldnt use any powers night one, so if FW is black he couldnt check coagulation, and other assassins couldnt check him.
Oh. That would explain alot if Flamewheel is black.
Flamewheel needs to get medic protection any way possible, so he does analysis on someone and tries to find a red.
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On April 14 2011 04:50 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On April 14 2011 04:42 GGQ wrote:
LSB, Assassin's couldnt use any powers night one, so if FW is black he couldnt check coagulation, and other assassins couldnt check him. Oh. That would explain alot if Flamewheel is black. Flamewheel needs to get medic protection any way possible, so he does analysis on someone and tries to find a red.
This is what most players, including me, are assuming at this point. But the thing is, who cares if he is black, as long as he is correctly finding reds for us we should keep him around. He must have picked coagulation as his target for a reason, he must be confident that coagulation will turn up red so he can get protection tonight.
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Coagulation if you're playing pro-town, please come up with your analysis of who we SHOULD lynch instead. I know defending yourself is important but at least, like Kavdragon, post out all your thoughts when there is a high chance of you dying today.
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EPT
