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TL Mafia XXXVI - Page 11

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Kavdragon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States1251 Posts
February 03 2011 22:24 GMT
#1830
Lord, I don't care. Look: here's my agenda:

I want Bum Dead.
I want Ben Dead.

I don't care how it's done, because I personally believe that LD will shoot for us.
I'm currently on an indefinite hiatus from TL =(
Kavdragon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States1251 Posts
February 03 2011 22:28 GMT
#1832
Oh, and here's why I suggested Bumatlarge:

He's the guy I'm sure about. More so than Beneather. (note, I'm still pretty sure about Beneather, I was just really freaking sure about Bumatlarge)
To further evidance, we now have conclusive evidence that he LIED to us about what the Bodyguard showed up as. He specifically said that it's Townie Bodyguard After he was asked to clarify!

Bum is the most obvious scum, so we kill him with the most definite method: Lynch.
I'm currently on an indefinite hiatus from TL =(
Kavdragon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States1251 Posts
February 03 2011 23:58 GMT
#1852
Right, so the Kav vs Bum battle was a decisive victory for town. Thanks, Bumatlarge for making that DT claim, now I'll never be sure if my analysis was good enough to convince the town to kill you anyways. Oh well. I thought it was a decent analysis.

Now, before we go off in a panic, let's recap what we do, and do not know.

LD is SK, and has decided to help the town at least in this case.
Bum is scum, (Caught lying about the result of a DT claim) and will be lynched.
Beneather is Scum, (caught lying about RB, and had his name cleared by scum), and will hopefully die to the SK's bullet.

Based off of public information, we do NOT know that BrownBear is scum. Lunar, I know he tried to kill you, but that doesn't mean he's scum. If you want to build an analysis against him, that's fine. Is there another reason that you want to kill him?
I'm currently on an indefinite hiatus from TL =(
Kavdragon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States1251 Posts
February 04 2011 00:03 GMT
#1854
Oh, and it's time to start analysing the past bunch of pages. Bum didn't fall easily, I doubt he was bussed by the whole of the mafia. There's bound to be some pretty juicy posts in there.
I'm currently on an indefinite hiatus from TL =(
Kavdragon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States1251 Posts
February 04 2011 03:34 GMT
#1888
Good lord Jackal, people have said this before, but it warrents being said again. That's freaking HUGE.

Did you NOT read my post where I specifically called out analyses like these as been scum? Look, I bet that 1, maybe two people read the entire thing. You do the town a disservice to post things that long. Do I need to bring up my Ver quote where he talks about analyses not needing to be Every Freaking Post?

That being said, I read up till you forgot your quote tag, and I gotta say, it was a good read. I was actually thinking of doing an analysis of BB next, but then I got to read your analysis. I'm now more convinced that he's town than I was before.

Look, I don't mean to harp on a newer player, but you use some pretty awful logic in it. I'll go over it to point out at least a few examples of what I mean. If you are town, I'd highly suggest reviewing my argument with Bum about analyses. Find the link to ver's post on analyses and read it. You need to.

Also, BrownBear, there are some good things in there, but one important thing that needs to be said, is that Bad Logic is Bad logic. Not necessarily scummy logic. Same thing with plans. Bad plans/logic are scummy when that are bad in a way that only benefits Mafia.

In general, Bad =/= Scummy. It's only scummy if it's bad in a way that benefits only Mafia.
I'm currently on an indefinite hiatus from TL =(
Kavdragon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States1251 Posts
February 04 2011 05:35 GMT
#1892
Dear Coag,


I heard about you when I was just starting to play. People tole me you were un-readable, and best ignored. I really didn't understand what they meant by it. Now I know, and I really wish I didn't. You hurt my brain.

On a more serious note, could you contribute, pretty PLEASE!? I really don't expect much from you other than a comical play by play one-liner commentary on what's happening, but town could really use some help, not one-liners. At the very least, stop posting so much. You'll only help the mafia snowball things.

-Your friend**, Kavdragon.

+ Show Spoiler +
**if you are scum, you are not my friend. Unless you come clean and tell me everything. In that case we can still be pals.
I'm currently on an indefinite hiatus from TL =(
Kavdragon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States1251 Posts
February 04 2011 05:41 GMT
#1893
On February 04 2011 08:29 Kenpachi wrote:
##Unvote LunarDestiny
##Vote Bumatlarge



Would you mind explaining where you were this whole time? Last post you told our medic to protect Bum. That was a long time ago. If you were active enough to vote, why not let us know what you thought?
I'm currently on an indefinite hiatus from TL =(
Kavdragon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States1251 Posts
February 04 2011 05:47 GMT
#1894
Also, I typed this up a day or two ago, but never felt like the time was right with the whole Bum/LD debacle. Hopefully he was mafia.

+ Show Spoiler +
My Case for Papapanda

Papapanda has been at the back of my mind for a while for generally scummy play, but he's been inactive so I'm not reminded of him very much. This changed once I build an inactives list for myself, so I decided to analyse him.
Two things stuck out to me about his posting this game. One, he has been very hesitant with his posting, constantly refering to the fact that he's new, and generally hasn't stuck his head out. Two, he contributes very little in terms of content or opinions. A large portion of his posts are simply questioning the ideas of other players, or postulating about things that are irrelevant to this game.
I originally thought that this could have been because he was new, but after re-reading some of Ver's posts, I realize that this is exactly the sort of thing that makes this case STRONGER, not weaker.
Here are a few posts highlighting his timidness, and
+ Show Spoiler +
On January 25 2011 12:17 papapanda wrote:
my thoughts are the first day clues are just an example of how the clue would be like for new players(like me:D) and are pointing towards people outside the game(like Qatol, LSB, Node...etc) In other words, not really relevent to ON?

On January 23 2011 16:27 papapanda wrote:
I've not been in the mafia scene long enough to understand some of the old rivalry and whatnot im guessing thats what bum is about because divinek didnt post yet?(followed mafiaXXXV[big fan of pandain;P]) Afraid i won't be much help with this clue also, have absolutely no idea.
But yeah, im wearing a kav for prez button! ooh...catchy

On January 26 2011 19:04 papapanda wrote:
In the night 1 post, it said no clues are in that post, yet black is bolded...does this sort of mean that the bolded words in day post are also not clues? Very timidly put. He doesn't even give his own opinion on the matter.
I hope im not sounding overly negative of Kav's decision but i would've picked either of bum or bb to kill based on what he had done rather than on clues(that might not have even be relevent). Finally he states an opinion, but it's so timidly put that I'll bet no one ever considered it seriously twice.
But I understand that this was first day so there was not much to base analysis upon(ON didnt defend himself at all, that's probably why he was killed over the other two ).

Btw i don't like the timing of the turns(of day/night), seems like i'm in the wrong time zone(missing all the periods when most people are on) also ill try harder to boost post counts
He gives an excuse for not posting very much, but he blames it on time zones? Also, he's defneding himself well before people were attaking inactives. This is very typical of people who have something to hide.


Ver's thoughts on this sort of play. (This can be found in Ver's analysis of Mafia XXX)
+ Show Spoiler +

On August 26 2010 13:07 Ver wrote:

-Note the multiple apologies, excuses, the specific mention that he is still learning, and overall meek tone. Newer mafia players will try to emphasize their inexperience as a way of overcompensating. Think about this from the angle of being a townie: why would you want to say all this? What's the point in painting yourself to be some noob who is useless and shouldn't be listened to? If you want to be of use to the town, apologizing a bunch and acting all sorry for doing nothing wrong is hardly going to make yourself listened to. In fact, it will make people ignore you instead. Someone who can't even convince themself is hardly going to convince anyone else. That would be great for a mafia who wants to hide though, wouldn't it?

On that angle it makes perfect sense from the mafia's perspective. You want to find reasons that make you look less suspicious without looking like you are trying too hard to do so. See how Misder isn't even suspicious before this but he's trying to make himself look less suspicious. That's entirely mafia rationale. A townie might want to defend himself if someone accuses him, but only a mafia feels inherently guilty and has a need, perhaps even a desire to defend himself before he's even a blip on anyone's radar. It's a very common pattern that I've seen many, many times.


Further, Papapanda has contributed very little in the way of opinions or insights that are useful to the town. His posts usually do not contribute anything of value, and he often states things that are wrong. This post is indicative of many of his posts.
On January 24 2011 12:54 papapanda wrote:
If an SK becomes the mayor (SK cannot be night killed) it wouldn't really who becomes a body guard. just an interesting point I would like to point out. No one ever thought I was SK, so why bring this up?
Can there be more than one SKs ?
I'm assuming so that would mean potentially(assuming mafia KP is 2-4 and there vigilant kills on night 2) there can be 4-6 deaths on night 2:D Asks a dumb question, w/e, and makes an estimate that is so broad that it can't be wrong. In essence, it looks like he's giving an opinion on KP, but doesn't say anything really.
Yeah, basically, I'm just saying mayor is important role and should not be traded for a scum life.
and BTW first day clues does not point to anyone in the game, i believe. [red]Repeates what has been said up to this point, says something that is obviously wrong about clues, and doesn't give a real opinion yet again.
[/quote] (<-- No idea why that shows up. Can't get rid of it.)
I'm currently on an indefinite hiatus from TL =(
Kavdragon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States1251 Posts
February 04 2011 17:11 GMT
#1913
CubEdIn. I understand your plan for lynching the SK, and I agreed that it was the best choice before I(/we) could conclusivly prove two people are scum. But since we got conclusive evedince that they are indeed scum, it wasn't the best plan anymore.

Here are some numbers:
Goal: Lynch 1 SK, and 2 Mafia.
Secondary Goal: Keep as many people alive in the process as possible.

CubEdIn's Plan:
  • Day 1: Lynch SK. Night KP kills 2 townies.
  • Day 2: Lynch Scum # 1. Night KP kills 1-2 townies.
  • Day 3: Lynch Scum # 2. Night KP kills 1-2 townies.

  • Total # of dead townies: 4-6. (Likely 6, assuming reduction of Mafia KP at 3 remaining)


Kavdragon's Plan:
  • Day 1: Lynch Scum # 1. Night KP kills 1-2 townies, SK kills Scum # 2.
  • Day 2: Lynch SK. Night KP kills 1-2 townies.
  • Day 3: Lynch ???. Night KP kills 1-2 townies.

  • Total # of dead townies: 4-7. (Likely 5, assuming reduction of Mafia KP at 3 remaining, a mis-lynch)


You're plan was a good plan before everyone could be convinced that Bum and Ben were scum. Before LD started talking to us again. In fact, your plan is still probably the best if we assume that LD will work against us. But both his history and his posting showed that he will likely hit our target tonight, so I called for Bum to be lynched.
I'm currently on an indefinite hiatus from TL =(
Kavdragon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States1251 Posts
February 04 2011 19:01 GMT
#1915
On February 05 2011 03:56 LunarDestiny wrote:
I asked the mod to retire me after shooting Beneather tonight (punishing mafia for setting a damn dt/fake roleblock trap for me).

So there is high possibility that you guys don't have to worry about my lynch tomorrow.


Good lord. Remind me NEVER to piss you off as Mafia. That's pretty brutal. Thanks, it will help a lot. (If it actually happens.)
I'm currently on an indefinite hiatus from TL =(
Kavdragon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States1251 Posts
February 04 2011 19:14 GMT
#1917
Oh, I'd forgotten to do this.

My opinion on what Blues should do:

Medic(s):
Protecting GMarshal is a good plan for tonight. I've not done a full analysis on Barundar, but he seems pretty pro town, and his analysis of Kenpachi looks good to me. He's a good alternative, imo.

DT(s)
Kenpachi would be a good person to check tonight, for the reason that Barundar's case is strong, but not perfect. He will likely be one the lynch targets tomorrow, so I think it's a good idea to check him.

Vig(s)
Previously I asked for hits to pressure people who weren't posting enough. Most of those people are dead now, and we don't have a strong enough case on anyone else to my knowledge. I suggest saving your shot.

Mason: If there's another one of you out there for some reason, recruit me please. I think that we could gain a lot if we combined our circles. (Chances are there's only one, but hey. Doesn't hurt to try...)
I'm currently on an indefinite hiatus from TL =(
Kavdragon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States1251 Posts
February 04 2011 19:33 GMT
#1918
On February 05 2011 04:04 CubEdIn wrote:
Kav, I understand that perfectly well.

But to say that I'm scum because I didn't change my vote, even though I said I'll be going to sleep due to schoolwork, is kind of a stretch.
And I'm not talking about you, but at least two people accused me of that.

Meh. Anyway.

If mods dismiss LD these would be like.. the best 24 hours that town had in this game by far.


I agree. The only reason someone would keep their votes on LD was because they were away. It means nothing if they voted LD.

If they were mafia, they would have seen the inevitability of bum's lynch, and bussed him. I don't expect to gain a lot of information from his bandwagon, but looking at who was supporting what without giving reason...That should help us.

In addition, we might be able to do something with clues at this point. Analysis is still first in my book for a conviction, but five days of clues is bound to bring up something worth looking into.
I'm currently on an indefinite hiatus from TL =(
Kavdragon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States1251 Posts
February 05 2011 02:09 GMT
#1942
Look, it's almost inevitable that the SK is found out before the end of the game. In my opinion, that's where the true SK play comes. It's all about manipulating yourself into a position where the town can't afford to kill you, until it's too late. It's freaking hard like I wouldn't know, but It's possible with the proper mind games. Lunar, as much as it would be nice for the town to not have to worry about your lynch, it wouldn't feel like a victory for the town. Just a loss for the mafia.

The game is about having fun, it's about a battle between two sides. When one side becomes really broken, it's no longer fun. I know you can give good analysis, and I'd bet you could direct us in the wrong direction if you were really clever. It will be hard, especially because of every one's awareness at this point, but if anyone's up to the challenge, it's you. You've been in this position before, and I'm sure it's discouraging to be third party again, but it's only fair to give it your best shot.

What do you say?
I'm currently on an indefinite hiatus from TL =(
Kavdragon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States1251 Posts
February 05 2011 02:10 GMT
#1943
Lol. Ninja'd. Thank LD.
I'm currently on an indefinite hiatus from TL =(
Kavdragon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States1251 Posts
February 05 2011 02:12 GMT
#1944
On February 05 2011 07:10 bumatlarge wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 05 2011 03:56 LunarDestiny wrote:
I asked the mod to retire me after shooting Beneather tonight (punishing mafia for setting a damn dt/fake roleblock trap for me).

So there is high possibility that you guys don't have to worry about my lynch tomorrow.


...

It's a shame that I'm still an element in the game so I can't idly comment, but most people here need to develop a different mind-set when playing mafia. You can play SC to win or you can play to get better. Same goes with mafia. It's as if half the people I play with are making the game the be-all end-all of the mafia careers. I'm not referring to meta, but to how you improve your play and how you reap the rewards of your improvement.

And it's not LD i'm talking about.


If you are refering to me, please talk to me after the game and show me where I've gone wrong. It was not my intent to play like that, and I'd hate to make the game less fun for anyone. Sorry in advance for anything inappropriate or harmful I've done.
I'm currently on an indefinite hiatus from TL =(
Kavdragon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States1251 Posts
February 05 2011 02:32 GMT
#1949
Mafia count is 2. Papapanda was likely Scum.
I'm currently on an indefinite hiatus from TL =(
Kavdragon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States1251 Posts
February 05 2011 02:39 GMT
#1953
Also, was anyone hit? Cause scum = 2 means that there were only 3 during the night. Which might mean only 1 KP for mafia.
I'm currently on an indefinite hiatus from TL =(
Kavdragon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States1251 Posts
February 05 2011 02:43 GMT
#1956
On February 05 2011 11:38 Kenpachi wrote:
woah! 2!?
bow down to Kavdragon


Lol, I can only take credit for two of them at most, and non of them at worst. They lied, and got caught. Kind of a cheep victory.
I'm currently on an indefinite hiatus from TL =(
Kavdragon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States1251 Posts
February 05 2011 16:55 GMT
#1999
Right, so I'm going to put this out there: We need to kill ONE mafia to win. Having LD alive would likely just speed up the game, and while it probably wouldn't change the fact that town is likely to win I think that it is the best course of action.

So...yeah. Lynch LD.
I'm currently on an indefinite hiatus from TL =(
Kavdragon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States1251 Posts
February 06 2011 01:29 GMT
#2024
No. More time is better. Lynch LD, then we can decide who to kill.

Also, in my experiance, arguments like this one are usually between two townies. Just because you want to kill each other doesn't mean that the town is going to waste it's KP doing that.
I'm currently on an indefinite hiatus from TL =(
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