|
my only advice to you jimbo is don't tunnel... tunneling is bad, keep an open mind. Oh wait! this is how i got in trouble the first time >_<
Seriously though, it's not hard to understand why I want shorter night cycles. There's no night actions for town to discuss. We don't need Ace to accelerate the day portion of the cycle because of the majority lynch mechanic.
As for not posting your suspects at night, that's pretty easy to understand too.
Let's imagine for a moment that your top suspects are Eiii and BloodyC0bbler. You make a post to this effect at night. The SK (perhaps BC) reads the thread and decides, hmm, I guess if I kill Kenpachi, Jimbo will still be suspicious of Eiii.
Or let's imagine another scenario where your top suspects are Eiii and BloodyC0bbler, but you don't post that in the thread. Now the SK has to decide who to kill, but you're not helping him. He has to figure in things like who is good at analysis, who looks suspicious already, etc. If you post your suspicions at night, you're helping the SK pick a good neutral target that will give the town the least amount of information.
The whole purpose of posting in the thread is to get useful information. Information that can be used, that can be acted on. Since town has no more roles that can act at night, discussion at night is only useful/actionable to SK, not town. Not till morning anyway. Notice that BC's discussion of SK targets was essentially a goodbye post, and my discussion of it came during day. Although my post may have been premature, I did not introduce new targets, I only reinforced BC's position that you and BC are the most likely SKs...
And last point, lynching you DOES have a huge advantage in that we eliminate a scenario in which it is impossible for town to win. And in both plans, 3 players will be flipped before LYLO. The only disadvantage of lynching you is that all three of the players will be flipped by the SK, instead of town flipping one of them. Which again is why I don't want to help the SK pick targets...
|
+ Show Spoiler [Result] +
BloodyC0bbler, Vanilla Townie has been killed
It is now Day 7. With 5 alive it is 3 to lynch! Day ends in 48 hours on Sunday January 23rd @ 9PM ET/ 11 KST
|
NoOoOoOOOOOOOOOO
##vote JimboSilvers
|
##Vote: JimboSilvers
Not saying I'm 100% certain you're SK, but I am 100% certain that this is the smartest move for today.
Very interesting night kill choice by the SK. That eliminates one of the players under suspicion anyway...
Thanks BC for all the help this game. I learned a lot watching as it happened, rather than just reading about it after the fact. This game was at least as good for me as reading Ver.
|
Wow two votes already... If anyone wants/needs to talk about it, do it now!
|
Well hot damn. I did NOT expect that. Removing one of my major suspects make this considerably easier.
Guys we have plenty of time to figure this out. Rushing when we have 48 hours + 24 hr night + another 48 hours if we miss the first time is stupid and very anti town.
Also it's fine having 1 vote on me but 2 is very dangerous. If the real sk shows up he can just hammer and say he's following the plan or some bullshit and we can't call him out at all. Then we're down 1 chance to get the SK for no reason at all.
I'll post my own analysis in a bit.
|
I'll give you at least a few hours Jimbo. But even if you bring something spectacular to the table, I'm pretty sure you're the smart lynch today.
Unvote Jimbo
|
Jimbo is supposedly Veteran. even if were wrong on lynching him, he has a whole day
|
if he isnt veteran, he lied obviously and is the SK
|
You're absolutely right Kenpachi, but I just said let's not talk at night, so it wouldn't be very nice of me to let day only last for ten minutes lol...
|
On January 22 2011 06:54 JimboSilvers wrote:
Whoa Aidnai, why do you want us not to talk about it? while clearly we get more info once we see who dies, the biggest danger we have right now is not knowing enough to correctly find the sk. We need people to post, we need to see peoples reactions, and we need to put the real sk under some heat and get him to fuck up.
Misder, there's no need to jump the gun and lynch someone right away. We have plenty of time to get info out there so we can make the right choice. If you want to go ahead and vote people to get them to post, as people like eiii should not be able to lurk this much and say nothing, but under no circumstances should anyone be hammering until we have a clear target.
And how is it security to lynch me? That wastes a chance to find SK. It won't prove I'm green either since I'm vet. Best case scenario is I get shot so you can be sure about me and pick two other targets, but that probably won't happen since SK is probably counting on me getting lynched.
What I was saying was that we need to make a decision today. When I say to lynch you for security, I'm saying that it is the only way to lynch you if you were the SK. Since I regard you as one of my top suspects, I don't want to risk it. Ultimately its up to us whether or not we want to hit two people or just you.
On January 22 2011 06:54 aidnai wrote:
accelerated day/night cycles plz?
by the way your numbers are off misder. We're at 5v1 right now, during night. So it should be:
Plan 1: lynch someone not Jimbo
Current night 5v1
tomorrow: 4v1
night again: 3v1
2nd day: 2v1 LYLO, plus too late to kill vet
On the other hand if we hit jimbo and he was telling the truth about vet, then it goes
Plan 2, lynch Jimbo
Current night 5v1
tomorrow: 4v1
night again: 4v1
2nd day: 3v1 MYLO. If we choose no lynch, then
night: 3v1
day 3: 2v1 LYLO
In both plans, we can end up at 2v1 which in terms of statistics is the best shot we have of guessing correctly. At that point, we've eliminated the greatest number of incorrect targets by flipping 3 of our remaining 6 players.
The major advantage of hitting Jimbo is we avoid a situation where it's too late to lynch the vet. We also verify Jimbo's vet claim. The only disadvantage is that in plan 1 we get to pick a suspicious person to flip, whereas in plan 2 all three flips are done by the SK.
That's just the numbers though. And the best the numbers can do is 33%. This will come down to analysis, argument, and persuasion in the end, and I'm REALLY hoping I'm around for it... This is my favorite part of mafia...
BTW, I don't think deconduo would have really revealed the SK, and it would have been a dick move to do so anyway. He's just been stringing us along the entire game, when he should have died day 2. If he had really wanted to screw the SK over, he could have told us his hit when he sent it in.
Jimbo, about the 'slip of the tongue', I remember reading that LSB's hit was barundar night 1? I can't find it now, (hate it when the game is past 50 pages), does anyone else remember this? Now that I stop and think about it, LSB never admitted anything before he flipped, so it must have been speculation that I took for fact -_-. Meh, so maybe LSB hit haplopaithan, maybe the SK#2's scumdar wasn't quite as unbelievable as I gave him credit for. But even without that hit, SK#2 still has bagged zeks and bum...
Your # are right, but the I think the conclusion is still the same- we only get two more days to lynch.
Also BC getting hit by SK is probably best for us TBH. I was seriously considering lynching him today, but I guess I was wrong.
|
sigh analysis is on hold til I address this. Let me explain this very clearly. This is our situation-
We need to decide out in 48 hours one of two options:
1- I am SK, thus lynch me twice.
2- I am not SK, thus lynch 2 people OF OUR CHOICE.
Lynching me once and then waiting to see and decide on the final day doesn't make sense. Why? Because the SK is going to manipulate kills for his own purposes. It should not take a genius to realize that two lynches to find the SK is much much better odds for us than 1, because WE direct it AND we gain information from what happens. Also it's easier to find the sk from 3 people - which you get if you lynch twice - than 4 - if you lynch me once then lynch someone else.
You say town avoids a worse case scenario. I say that this is just allowing the SK to take the easy way out. Before LYLO, there are two lynches and one night kill by the SK. As you said aidnai, by choosing to lynch me twice (where the first time doesn't even give you any information) you end up only getting information from the SK's kill before the second lynch. Then you still don't know what to do from there. You'll have used up my extra life, not gotten any information from it because the lynch wasn't meaningful, and we'll be in the same situation as you are right now.
This entire problem boils down to: am I SK or not. If I'm not SK it's clearly moronic to waste a lynch on me. In my eye's it's just halving our chancing of victory. Thus you should be trying to figure out, am I SK? It's pissing me off because the fact that I'm veteran is distracting us from actually trying to find the SK. If you think I'm the SK, prove it, and I'll tear it down and show you my green colors flying high. This not a game of 'avoid worst case scenario. it is a game of find the serial killer.'
To find the SK, we need to use what time we have to pressure people, with the threat of votes if necessary - kinda like what you're doing with me right here, which is great except it's on the wrong subject - and do some serious analysis, not just blindly bandwagon people without thinking.
|
Kenpachi I honestly don't know how you think you're helping town. The point of having this much time during the day is to have our 48 hours to talk about things. If it turns out at the end of that you're going to lynch me, that's the same as if you do it now. Except if you do it now, you lose the whole day's discussion and if we follow aidnai's policy of "not discussing at night" then when the LYLO lynch comes we have nothing new to go on.
Look, how are we supposed to find the sk? There's two ways.
1- Use every player's posting this game to figure out the likely suspect. That's what I did earlier, and I couldn't reach a clear conclusion. It's also very hard to find people's posts right now since the thread is so damn long and we can't use the all button.
2- Use the time we have now to pressure people with votes and analysis and see their reactions and get a read on them that way. To do this we need time and activity. e.g eii should not be allowed to keep lurking.
Eliminating the possibility of 2 is ENORMOUSLY ANTI TOWN.
|
On January 20 2011 13:27 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
I will simply say this.
Eii
Kenpachi
Misder.
Aidnai
You 4 are the 4 "confirmed town"
Myself, jimbo, and beneather. 1 of us 3 is the sk.
Decon is red.
OF the three of us on the sk list. Jimbo, as much as I love the guy for being awesome this game, best fits the profile of sk. However I am not sure on this, its just a gut instinct.
When the night post hits, I expect to be dead, so good luck you guys.
Off decon, then its a game of finding the sk. Remember, if it is jimbo, it takes two days to lynch him if his vet claim is real!
Does anyone know why BC said these four were "confirmed" townies? There's got to be a reason, but I'm not sure why.
Eiii, I'm especially not sure. I haven't seen him in a long time. However, when I went back to his posts in the game, they all seem pretty town. That's the only thing that's throwing me off of him.
Kenpachi- I'll go with Jimbos analysis and say that he basically had no reason as SK to take the godfather role.
I know that BC said that aidnai was confirmed because it was unlikely that he would save an SK shot, but there was another SK (LSB) in the game, so he could have saved that shot.
Jimbo- he just seems like a threat as he has veteran, but as he has pointed out, I may be too distracted about this threat.
So right now, my main lynch target is aidnai.
|
##unvote JimboSilvers
argh.. im so scared
|
FREEAGLELAND26781 Posts
|
|
|
I posted yesterday about how Eiii and BC seemed the most suspicious to me. And now BC is dead and flipped green. Well, we should be pressuring people to talk. No discussion isn't going to get us anywhere, and the more people post the more we have to look at for the coming days. I'm going to be looking at Eiii, both because I still suspect him of being SK and because his inactivity inexcusable, so this post serves two purposes. While aidnai seems more suspicious to me now with his recent posts, he is at least here. Eiii, for the whole game, has not.
Alright here's the thing. I brought up Eiii beforehand but it was kind of brief, so I went hunting through posts to look for stuff. At first glance, if you read through Eiii's posts he seems pro-town, but after a while I realized that he wasn't really bringing up anything new / being active. As I said before, Eiii pretty much just chimes in to voice his agreement. That's a good way to look town without actually contribute, and Eiii really hasn't contributed this game.
It's also interesting that he said he would take Parity but didn't tell us he didn't get it until directly asked many days later, and as the days go by he posts less and less, while some of his later posts are questions pertaining to the SK.
It may seem like he's just inactive but when he was threatened with a modkill he posted very shortly after with
On January 20 2011 10:15 Eiii wrote:
Alright, contentless post because I don't want to be modkilled:
I'm totally leaning towards jimbo's view of things. The rereading of posts that I've been able to do seems to confirm what he's saying.
Apologies for inactivity are pretty much moot at this point, but I'm sorry anyway.
After that he's only posted four times. One was a vote for Haplo after he had already been lynched and another was his "oops" post. Yeah, right. Inactive but you're there to show that you're following almost immediately? Sounds fishy to me. After that he posts saying he agrees with aidnai's thing telling Mafia/SK what hits to make.
And with his latest post - more than 24 hours ago - he showed up to put the hammer vote on deconduo, ending our day quickly.
So these recent posts together all look pretty bad. You're not active but you're following closely to make decisive posts Eiii? Let's not forget what I said yesterday about him:
On January 21 2011 19:34 JimboSilvers wrote:Eiii- Lurker extraordinaire. What's more important, he supports the right stuff while not getting too open. Perfect profile for an SK. Show nested quote +On January 15 2011 19:29 Eiii wrote:
I'd be willing to bet this game on the fact that there would only be two SK, personally.
Jimbo's plan seems just fine to me, as well-- zeks and beneather have been flying under the radar, and fishball has been obnoxious and unhelpful, not to mention not voting yesterday when he was clearly active. We got a problem here boys. That might explain the zeks hit. Also was really antsy for a day 3 lynch when it looked like nobody was going to die. Most importantly he doesn't give real content and parrots what everyone else says. Seems like hes just going along for the ride and doesnt care what happens to the town.
So let's put this all together. We might have our Serial Killer right here. His sheer inactivity is absolutely inexcusable at this point in the game and if he truly is green, he needs to get his butt over here and prove it. No attention has been on him the entire game and that needs to change.
##Vote Eiii
Definitely no hammers or in this case putting two votes on a person - since then if we're wrong SK can hammer. But I want to see how Eiii in particular and people like aidnai react to a vote on them with the prospect of more.
|
On January 22 2011 12:09 JimboSilvers wrote:
sigh analysis is on hold til I address this. Let me explain this very clearly. This is our situation-
We need to decide out in 48 hours one of two options:
1- I am SK, thus lynch me twice.
2- I am not SK, thus lynch 2 people OF OUR CHOICE.
Lynching me once and then waiting to see and decide on the final day doesn't make sense. Why? Because the SK is going to manipulate kills for his own purposes. It should not take a genius to realize that two lynches to find the SK is much much better odds for us than 1, because WE direct it AND we gain information from what happens. Also it's easier to find the sk from 3 people - which you get if you lynch twice - than 4 - if you lynch me once then lynch someone else.
You say town avoids a worse case scenario. I say that this is just allowing the SK to take the easy way out. Before LYLO, there are two lynches and one night kill by the SK. As you said aidnai, by choosing to lynch me twice (where the first time doesn't even give you any information) you end up only getting information from the SK's kill before the second lynch. Then you still don't know what to do from there. You'll have used up my extra life, not gotten any information from it because the lynch wasn't meaningful, and we'll be in the same situation as you are right now.
This entire problem boils down to: am I SK or not. If I'm not SK it's clearly moronic to waste a lynch on me. In my eye's it's just halving our chancing of victory. Thus you should be trying to figure out, am I SK? It's pissing me off because the fact that I'm veteran is distracting us from actually trying to find the SK. If you think I'm the SK, prove it, and I'll tear it down and show you my green colors flying high. This not a game of 'avoid worst case scenario. it is a game of find the serial killer.'
To find the SK, we need to use what time we have to pressure people, with the threat of votes if necessary - kinda like what you're doing with me right here, which is great except it's on the wrong subject - and do some serious analysis, not just blindly bandwagon people without thinking.
Jimbo, you ARE the number 1 suspect for SK right now. BC's analysis (which is not infallible, but which did get us pretty damn far this game) -- his analysis of the players remaining in this game left you, BC, and beneather as the top suspects for SK. You're the only one left. I also have already stated my case why I think you could very well be the SK.
ADDITIONALLY-- IF you are the SK, and you are also vet as you claim, you must be lynched today or it is too late. Furthermore, lynching you does not mean that we'll be picking the SK from a pool of four instead of three, we simply vote no lynch one day and we have our nice 2v1 situation the next day.
However, if you are a pro-town vet, what's the big deal with taking a lynch? it's one day where we don't kill a townie. We do get information - we know that you at least didn't lie about vet, which lends you a little cred, and it means that LYLO hits another day further down the line. That means more chances to argue it out. It is certainly not 'clearly moronic' to lynch you at all, especially since you are the prime suspect right now!
The tradeoff is this: for the privilege of choosing one of the three players to flip between now and LYLO, town would have to take the risk of instantly losing. I'm not willing to take that risk when
a) BC, who is now confirmed town, listed you as a prime suspect
b) My own analysis shows that the SK followed the same thought process as you and BC for most if not all of his kills, and therefore could very well actually be you
c) Your vet claim could just be an excuse for taking a hit.
I'll be putting my vote back on you after I check the thread here...
|
Yep, I'm still sure it's the smart choice for today.
##Vote: JimboSilvers
Gonna make this easy for everyone else to see what's important here
For the privilege of choosing one of the three players to flip between now and LYLO, town would have to take the risk of instantly losing.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
