EPTAssassin In The Palace - Page 8
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Coagulation
United States9633 Posts
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Coagulation
United States9633 Posts
On November 08 2010 19:05 orgolove wrote: Do you all honestly believe for a second that if someone of coagulation's also this leads me to believe that you still have no idea what im talking about considering it would be impossible for the assassin to catch the slipup without first knowing who the king is. | ||
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Coagulation
United States9633 Posts
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Meapak_Ziphh
United States6784 Posts
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
On November 08 2010 18:30 bumatlarge wrote: Multiple kings would explain bereft's mix-up. But there is a fine line between misleading the assassin and actually mistakenly convincing the rest of the town that oneself is the assassin. Trust me, there was no mix up. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
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Meapak_Ziphh
United States6784 Posts
A lot of people went afk it seems :/ | ||
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orgolove
Vatican City State1650 Posts
On November 07 2010 11:38 DoctorHelvetica wrote: Day 2 The royal assembly had made a decision. CubEdIn was to be sent to the guillotine. CubEdIn closed his eyes and as the blade dropped he yelled his final words. "Long live the king!" CubEdIn the Bodyguard has died. The second day has begun and a lowly assassin still lurks amongst the ranks of the palace. The king has became a bit more nervous. Good luck. Er, hasn't it been 48 hours KST? The time reads November 9th 12:23 KST. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
Day 3 The council decided they would lynch the dastardly Bereft. As his head hung under the blade of the guillotine he wept. "You've made a mistake! Long live the king!" He cried before his head was lopped off. Bereft the Bodyguard has died. The third day has begun and a lowly assassin still lurks amongst the ranks of the palace. The king has started to get paranoid. Good luck. | ||
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Meapak_Ziphh
United States6784 Posts
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Coagulation
United States9633 Posts
#vote orgolove be nice. | ||
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orgolove
Vatican City State1650 Posts
 Fuck. As mentioned before, I had thought it would be between Bereft, DarthThienAn, and Youngminii. But now I am not so sure anymore... can anyone else contribute your analysis? Lets look at the post counts and their comparative behavioral patterns: 1. Meapak_Ziphh 18 His only past participation is in Insane Mafia, so I have to judge him based on that. Considering his roleclaim as blue (which may not be true), he's been pretty active with over 70 posts in that thread, and he's comparatively active here now. In both cases he's tried to be logical and offer some contributions of his own. conclusion: uncertain 2. Node 11 As blue in Haunted Mafia, he was about average in his activity. Didn't contribute much, but was pretty vocal in saying what the reds could be planning. Similar behavioral pattern here. conclusion: likely blue 3. orgolove 21 What do you think? :X blue 4. coagulation 19 ---I'm Ignoring Him--- 5. DarthThienAn 8 As Scum in Pick Your Power Mafia 2, he was really, really active. 31 posts over the course of the game, and many of them were highly analytical and accusatory. Now lets look at his posts. He has had barely any contribution in Day 1, and only posted a few after his inactivity was noted. And most of his posts were also pretty empty - It was all about defending himself and almost none about finding the assassin. I think he just loses the attraction if he does not receive a red role -_- conclusion: likely blue 6. bumatlarge 10 As a red in Haunted Mafia, he was highly visible from the start, and posted many times in support of a Veldril lynch, who turned out to be a blue in the end. As a blue in Insane Mafia, he came into spotlight at first by proposing to be the mayor, but receded into view after DrH and Fishball threw their hats in. Here bumatlarge also was really active, but this time he's been active throughout the game from the very start, instead of falling off the radar after the first couple of pages. conclusion: uncertain 8. youngminii 6 As a red in Haunted, he was very, VERY visible. One of the top posters in the beginning of the game, he was extremely eager to accuse and bandwagon against any non-vampire. Compare that with this game, where he's been mostly passive and silent. conclusion: likely blue These conclusions are based on behavioral analyses alone. What are your thoughts? | ||
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Coagulation
United States9633 Posts
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Node
United States2159 Posts
That in mind, I'd like to present an analysis of youngminii's posts in this game: On November 06 2010 10:56 youngminii wrote: So uhh, let's get this baby rolling. ##Vote Meapak_Ziphh His first game-related post is a contentless vote jumping on the Meapak bandwagon. I shouldn't have to explain why this is the kind of behavior we should be looking out for. On November 06 2010 13:32 youngminii wrote: Staying silent's not really the optimum strategy, it's just a lazy strategy. There's a 1/8 chance we'll lynch the assassin, and a 7/8 chance that we'll lynch a bodyguard. If everyone's silent, it'll just wittle down the number of people and right when the assassin's about to get lynched (by some form of rng I assume), he'll just take a random stab at the small amount of people left. Surely interaction is a better method. His second post pushes for being more active and promoting discussion. I could go either way on this post. He could be a bodyguard honestly wanting to reduce the chances of the assassin being successful. He could also be the assassin attempting to get discussion going so that he could more easily get the king out in the open. On November 07 2010 12:21 youngminii wrote: Well that was a quick bandwagon. Is it fair to say orgolove is a semi-confirmed bodyguard/king? I mean, an assassin would be very wary of starting a lynch bandwagon because if he accidentally votes for the king, everyone would know (well, at least be suspicious) that the person that targeted the king would be the assassin, since the assassin doesn't know who the king is. Might be a bit of wifom but orgolove's safe in my books. Here he defends orgolove. This post doesn't really tell us one way or the other whether he's red. On November 08 2010 10:11 youngminii wrote: When did I accuse you? When did I vote for you? I was going to defend you lol He posts saying that he didn't accuse Darth (truthfully), and that he was going to defend him, which never happened. He hasn't posted since, and never voted in the second day. Youngminii is really shifty in my books. I think if we lynch him, worst-case scenario we get rid of a non-contributor, and best-case scenario we kill the assassin. I'm still not sold on Darth being innocent, but in the end I think there are better suspects right now. ##Vote Youngminii | ||
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
On November 09 2010 14:25 Node wrote: I dunno orgolove, I'm inclined to base any analysis on this game alone rather than on activity in past games -- the nature of this variation is quite different from traditional mafia, and nothing's stopping people from acting differently on a game-by-game basis. That in mind, I'd like to present an analysis of youngminii's posts in this game: His first game-related post is a contentless vote jumping on the Meapak bandwagon. I shouldn't have to explain why this is the kind of behavior we should be looking out for. His second post pushes for being more active and promoting discussion. I could go either way on this post. He could be a bodyguard honestly wanting to reduce the chances of the assassin being successful. He could also be the assassin attempting to get discussion going so that he could more easily get the king out in the open. This was in response to me, and I too was a little suspicious, but I think that the attempts of youngminii in getting the king in the open were not intended. Here he defends orgolove. This post doesn't really tell us one way or the other whether he's red. Yes, an assassin doing an analysis on anyone is fairly risky, but it's also easy for the assassin to say that. This post is helpful as he explains that anyone who starts voting for the king is expected to be assassin, BUT MUST BE HANDLED DELICATELY. A very good point if it is not a BG making a gambit vote. He posts saying that he didn't accuse Darth (truthfully), and that he was going to defend him, which never happened. He hasn't posted since, and never voted in the second day. Youngminii is really shifty in my books. I think if we lynch him, worst-case scenario we get rid of a non-contributor, and best-case scenario we kill the assassin. I'm still not sold on Darth being innocent, but in the end I think there are better suspects right now. Isn't darth dead? I think you are a little slow on the uptake with that one  .##Vote Youngminii Otherwise I like your analysis, but I feel there are better suspects that I will get into later. But I made a mistake with Bereft guys. There is a way you handle truly suspicious people if you are thinking a certain way. You can't let them know that you have suspicions that day, but the BG's must kill that person the next day for silent reasons. If bereft was the assassin, we might have lost the game right then and there, but everyone kept their heads and we killed him without exposing much. I think if we can hold our heads again in the next dilemma, we should have a good chance of killing the assassin and giving our king more of a chance. | ||
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Coagulation
United States9633 Posts
##Vote Youngminii | ||
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
I have a weird feeling about orgo. I know he did start a lynch, but a 1 in 9 shot is pretty good odds. But more so then him his coagulation. I do not feel comfortable keeping him alive, but he is being a expectedly silly bodyguard or a very bold and risky assassin. I did not notice his 'king revealing posts' but such things usually get reprimanded. But meapak has been setting off warning bells for me. I can't take the time out now, but when I come back I expect some posts like Node's on nearly everyone, including myself. | ||
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Meapak_Ziphh
United States6784 Posts
Darth is still alive bum and I think he's our best bet. @node, I have a feeling YM is a BG, out of the Bereft, Darth, YM bunch I think YM is least likely to be the assassin. We'll find out tomorrow. + Show Spoiler + Coag we need orgolove alive dammit, did your role pm not state this clear enough X_X | ||
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