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Assassin In The Palace - Page 8

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Coagulation
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States9633 Posts
November 08 2010 11:32 GMT
#141
if your throwing out shit that incriminates yourself then your the only one to blame if people suspect you.
Coagulation
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States9633 Posts
November 08 2010 11:39 GMT
#142
On November 08 2010 19:05 orgolove wrote:

Do you all honestly believe for a second that if someone of coagulation's 5 year old intellect terrible mafia "skill level" could find an actual slip-up, an assassin wouldn't catch it immediately?



also this leads me to believe that you still have no idea what im talking about considering it would be impossible for the assassin to catch the slipup without first knowing who the king is.

Coagulation
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States9633 Posts
November 08 2010 11:47 GMT
#143
also I would appreciate it if you built a defense around your innocence and not on how you think I lack the intellect and cognitive ability to be taken seriously.



Meapak_Ziphh
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6786 Posts
November 08 2010 15:47 GMT
#144
Coag for the good of the kingdom please shut up. You've pretty muched revealed the king in an even worse way than my code ever did... I even gave you a way out of your mess and you missed it X_X. Whatever, if the bodyguards lose I'm going to do a nice little writeup explaining why you blew it.
Forti et Fideli ~ TL Mafia Forum: Come play with us! ~ Go Samsung KHAN, Stork, JangBi , Shine, Grape, and TurN Fighting!~ wat
Bereft
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
United States1007 Posts
November 08 2010 16:53 GMT
#145
On November 08 2010 18:30 bumatlarge wrote:
Multiple kings would explain bereft's mix-up.


But there is a fine line between misleading the assassin and actually mistakenly convincing the rest of the town that oneself is the assassin.

Trust me, there was no mix up.
DoctorHelvetica
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
United States15034 Posts
November 08 2010 17:43 GMT
#146
Orgolove calm down or it's a ban.
RIP Aaliyah
DoctorHelvetica
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
United States15034 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-11-08 17:43:47
November 08 2010 17:43 GMT
#147
There are not TWO kings. There is no deception/insanity in this game. Everything is exactly as it is is described in the OP.
RIP Aaliyah
bumatlarge
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States4567 Posts
November 08 2010 21:40 GMT
#148
Oh ok, then Bereft is still pretty clear. I've got more reason on him then anyone else, unless bereft want's to elaborate on what he is doing. Are you doing it purposefully? I can see the benefits, but I mean we have to be sure.
Together but separate, like oatmeal
Meapak_Ziphh
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6786 Posts
November 09 2010 02:48 GMT
#149
/bump
A lot of people went afk it seems :/
Forti et Fideli ~ TL Mafia Forum: Come play with us! ~ Go Samsung KHAN, Stork, JangBi , Shine, Grape, and TurN Fighting!~ wat
orgolove
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Vatican City State1650 Posts
November 09 2010 03:24 GMT
#150
On November 07 2010 11:38 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
Day 2


The royal assembly had made a decision. CubEdIn was to be sent to the guillotine.

CubEdIn closed his eyes and as the blade dropped he yelled his final words. "Long live the king!"

CubEdIn the Bodyguard has died.

The second day has begun and a lowly assassin still lurks amongst the ranks of the palace. The king has became a bit more nervous. Good luck.


Er, hasn't it been 48 hours KST? The time reads November 9th 12:23 KST.
초대 갓, 이영호 | First God, Lee Young Ho
DoctorHelvetica
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
United States15034 Posts
November 09 2010 04:07 GMT
#151
Day 3


The council decided they would lynch the dastardly Bereft. As his head hung under the blade of the guillotine he wept.

"You've made a mistake! Long live the king!" He cried before his head was lopped off.

Bereft the Bodyguard has died.

The third day has begun and a lowly assassin still lurks amongst the ranks of the palace. The king has started to get paranoid. Good luck.
RIP Aaliyah
Meapak_Ziphh
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6786 Posts
November 09 2010 04:40 GMT
#152
mkay... I'm not quite ready to go back to Darth, I'm going to take a look at bum right now.
Forti et Fideli ~ TL Mafia Forum: Come play with us! ~ Go Samsung KHAN, Stork, JangBi , Shine, Grape, and TurN Fighting!~ wat
Coagulation
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States9633 Posts
November 09 2010 04:45 GMT
#153
unfortunately
#vote orgolove
be nice.

orgolove
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Vatican City State1650 Posts
November 09 2010 04:58 GMT
#154
Fuck.

As mentioned before, I had thought it would be between Bereft, DarthThienAn, and Youngminii. But now I am not so sure anymore... can anyone else contribute your analysis?

Lets look at the post counts and their comparative behavioral patterns:
1. Meapak_Ziphh 18
His only past participation is in Insane Mafia, so I have to judge him based on that. Considering his roleclaim as blue (which may not be true), he's been pretty active with over 70 posts in that thread, and he's comparatively active here now. In both cases he's tried to be logical and offer some contributions of his own.
conclusion: uncertain

2. Node 11
As blue in Haunted Mafia, he was about average in his activity. Didn't contribute much, but was pretty vocal in saying what the reds could be planning. Similar behavioral pattern here.
conclusion: likely blue

3. orgolove 21
What do you think? :X
blue

4. coagulation 19
---I'm Ignoring Him---

5. DarthThienAn 8
As Scum in Pick Your Power Mafia 2, he was really, really active. 31 posts over the course of the game, and many of them were highly analytical and accusatory. Now lets look at his posts. He has had barely any contribution in Day 1, and only posted a few after his inactivity was noted. And most of his posts were also pretty empty - It was all about defending himself and almost none about finding the assassin. I think he just loses the attraction if he does not receive a red role -_-
conclusion: likely blue


6. bumatlarge 10
As a red in Haunted Mafia, he was highly visible from the start, and posted many times in support of a Veldril lynch, who turned out to be a blue in the end. As a blue in Insane Mafia, he came into spotlight at first by proposing to be the mayor, but receded into view after DrH and Fishball threw their hats in. Here bumatlarge also was really active, but this time he's been active throughout the game from the very start, instead of falling off the radar after the first couple of pages.
conclusion: uncertain

8. youngminii 6
As a red in Haunted, he was very, VERY visible. One of the top posters in the beginning of the game, he was extremely eager to accuse and bandwagon against any non-vampire. Compare that with this game, where he's been mostly passive and silent.
conclusion: likely blue


These conclusions are based on behavioral analyses alone. What are your thoughts?
초대 갓, 이영호 | First God, Lee Young Ho
Coagulation
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States9633 Posts
November 09 2010 05:04 GMT
#155
i think your analysis does more confusion then good if your honestly a blue.
Node
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States2159 Posts
November 09 2010 05:25 GMT
#156
I dunno orgolove, I'm inclined to base any analysis on this game alone rather than on activity in past games -- the nature of this variation is quite different from traditional mafia, and nothing's stopping people from acting differently on a game-by-game basis.

That in mind, I'd like to present an analysis of youngminii's posts in this game:

On November 06 2010 10:56 youngminii wrote:
So uhh, let's get this baby rolling.

##Vote Meapak_Ziphh


His first game-related post is a contentless vote jumping on the Meapak bandwagon. I shouldn't have to explain why this is the kind of behavior we should be looking out for.

On November 06 2010 13:32 youngminii wrote:
Staying silent's not really the optimum strategy, it's just a lazy strategy. There's a 1/8 chance we'll lynch the assassin, and a 7/8 chance that we'll lynch a bodyguard. If everyone's silent, it'll just wittle down the number of people and right when the assassin's about to get lynched (by some form of rng I assume), he'll just take a random stab at the small amount of people left.

Surely interaction is a better method.


His second post pushes for being more active and promoting discussion. I could go either way on this post. He could be a bodyguard honestly wanting to reduce the chances of the assassin being successful. He could also be the assassin attempting to get discussion going so that he could more easily get the king out in the open.

On November 07 2010 12:21 youngminii wrote:
Well that was a quick bandwagon. Is it fair to say orgolove is a semi-confirmed bodyguard/king? I mean, an assassin would be very wary of starting a lynch bandwagon because if he accidentally votes for the king, everyone would know (well, at least be suspicious) that the person that targeted the king would be the assassin, since the assassin doesn't know who the king is.

Might be a bit of wifom but orgolove's safe in my books.


Here he defends orgolove. This post doesn't really tell us one way or the other whether he's red.

On November 08 2010 10:11 youngminii wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 08 2010 09:05 DarthThienAn wrote:
bum and YM should know that this is not how I play the bad guy, especially when there's only one. YM especially -_-. I may have been gone for awhile, but I don't think your memory is THAT bad. Have I ever sat back as a mafia member?

When did I accuse you? When did I vote for you? I was going to defend you lol


He posts saying that he didn't accuse Darth (truthfully), and that he was going to defend him, which never happened.

He hasn't posted since, and never voted in the second day.

Youngminii is really shifty in my books. I think if we lynch him, worst-case scenario we get rid of a non-contributor, and best-case scenario we kill the assassin. I'm still not sold on Darth being innocent, but in the end I think there are better suspects right now.

##Vote Youngminii
whole lies with a half smile
bumatlarge
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States4567 Posts
November 09 2010 06:14 GMT
#157
On November 09 2010 14:25 Node wrote:
I dunno orgolove, I'm inclined to base any analysis on this game alone rather than on activity in past games -- the nature of this variation is quite different from traditional mafia, and nothing's stopping people from acting differently on a game-by-game basis.

That in mind, I'd like to present an analysis of youngminii's posts in this game:

Show nested quote +
On November 06 2010 10:56 youngminii wrote:
So uhh, let's get this baby rolling.

##Vote Meapak_Ziphh


His first game-related post is a contentless vote jumping on the Meapak bandwagon. I shouldn't have to explain why this is the kind of behavior we should be looking out for.

Show nested quote +
On November 06 2010 13:32 youngminii wrote:
Staying silent's not really the optimum strategy, it's just a lazy strategy. There's a 1/8 chance we'll lynch the assassin, and a 7/8 chance that we'll lynch a bodyguard. If everyone's silent, it'll just wittle down the number of people and right when the assassin's about to get lynched (by some form of rng I assume), he'll just take a random stab at the small amount of people left.

Surely interaction is a better method.


His second post pushes for being more active and promoting discussion. I could go either way on this post. He could be a bodyguard honestly wanting to reduce the chances of the assassin being successful. He could also be the assassin attempting to get discussion going so that he could more easily get the king out in the open.
This was in response to me, and I too was a little suspicious, but I think that the attempts of youngminii in getting the king in the open were not intended.

Show nested quote +
On November 07 2010 12:21 youngminii wrote:
Well that was a quick bandwagon. Is it fair to say orgolove is a semi-confirmed bodyguard/king? I mean, an assassin would be very wary of starting a lynch bandwagon because if he accidentally votes for the king, everyone would know (well, at least be suspicious) that the person that targeted the king would be the assassin, since the assassin doesn't know who the king is.

Might be a bit of wifom but orgolove's safe in my books.


Here he defends orgolove. This post doesn't really tell us one way or the other whether he's red.
Yes, an assassin doing an analysis on anyone is fairly risky, but it's also easy for the assassin to say that. This post is helpful as he explains that anyone who starts voting for the king is expected to be assassin, BUT MUST BE HANDLED DELICATELY. A very good point if it is not a BG making a gambit vote.

Show nested quote +
On November 08 2010 10:11 youngminii wrote:
On November 08 2010 09:05 DarthThienAn wrote:
bum and YM should know that this is not how I play the bad guy, especially when there's only one. YM especially -_-. I may have been gone for awhile, but I don't think your memory is THAT bad. Have I ever sat back as a mafia member?

When did I accuse you? When did I vote for you? I was going to defend you lol


He posts saying that he didn't accuse Darth (truthfully), and that he was going to defend him, which never happened.

He hasn't posted since, and never voted in the second day.

Youngminii is really shifty in my books. I think if we lynch him, worst-case scenario we get rid of a non-contributor, and best-case scenario we kill the assassin. I'm still not sold on Darth being innocent, but in the end I think there are better suspects right now.
Isn't darth dead? I think you are a little slow on the uptake with that one .
##Vote Youngminii


Otherwise I like your analysis, but I feel there are better suspects that I will get into later.

But I made a mistake with Bereft guys. There is a way you handle truly suspicious people if you are thinking a certain way. You can't let them know that you have suspicions that day, but the BG's must kill that person the next day for silent reasons. If bereft was the assassin, we might have lost the game right then and there, but everyone kept their heads and we killed him without exposing much. I think if we can hold our heads again in the next dilemma, we should have a good chance of killing the assassin and giving our king more of a chance.
Together but separate, like oatmeal
Coagulation
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States9633 Posts
November 09 2010 06:24 GMT
#158
OK WHATEVER FINE FUCKIT ##unvote orgolove

##Vote Youngminii
bumatlarge
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States4567 Posts
November 09 2010 06:27 GMT
#159
Oh darth is alive, my bad node, I thought he died.

I have a weird feeling about orgo. I know he did start a lynch, but a 1 in 9 shot is pretty good odds. But more so then him his coagulation. I do not feel comfortable keeping him alive, but he is being a expectedly silly bodyguard or a very bold and risky assassin. I did not notice his 'king revealing posts' but such things usually get reprimanded.

But meapak has been setting off warning bells for me. I can't take the time out now, but when I come back I expect some posts like Node's on nearly everyone, including myself.
Together but separate, like oatmeal
Meapak_Ziphh
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6786 Posts
November 09 2010 06:31 GMT
#160
vote DarthThienAn
Darth is still alive bum and I think he's our best bet.
@node, I have a feeling YM is a BG, out of the Bereft, Darth, YM bunch I think YM is least likely to be the assassin. We'll find out tomorrow.
+ Show Spoiler +
Coag we need orgolove alive dammit, did your role pm not state this clear enough X_X
Forti et Fideli ~ TL Mafia Forum: Come play with us! ~ Go Samsung KHAN, Stork, JangBi , Shine, Grape, and TurN Fighting!~ wat
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