EPTBecause my role PM says I am immune to M-rus. Bill Murray's death gave me new life and I am immune to murrayitis.
Insane Mafia - Page 22
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
Because my role PM says I am immune to M-rus. Bill Murray's death gave me new life and I am immune to murrayitis. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
Since I was not able to confirm myself to jcarlsoniv (either because he lied, because I lied, or because another night role prevented me from using my role) others in the town (mostly Pandain and Coagulation) have been very accusatory for me. This is basically saying that because I was not confirmed to be town that means I am mafia. This is bad logic. This is a very simple situation. When I roleclaimed to the town and told them how my power of confirmation works it should have been equally obvious to everyone that a roleblocker role could stop me from acting and that the person I poke could lie. The latter is a possibility I openly talked about during my campaign, hoping it would make the mafia nervous and less likely to lie in the case that I do poke a mafia player. The first I kept to myself. If the mafia are going to roleblock, it's better they roleblock me than say a plague doctor or a detective. This is something everyone should have known but really did not need to be said. As far as the 100% confirmation issue, it is one that I dropped when I considered the possiblity that my role could be insane. The fact is, if my night action works, it confirms my role 100% to the person I poked in the exact way I've described a million times. I've been very consistent in my explanation of my role and I would argue that the assertion that I may have made up the role in the first place is absurd. I'll get to that later. My night action depends on the night action succeeding. This is a tautology and I'm surprised people think it's something that needed to be set up. A typical sane medic can't protect someone if they are roleblocked but I doubt a medic would describe themselves as not being able to do their action. I have since mostly stopped considering the idea that my role does not work the way it is described. Artanis said mods will not outright lie and that any deception in role PM's would be hinted at. I cannot quote my role PM, as it is cheating, but there is nothing in the role PM that could lead me to believe it is deceptive. There is no chance mechanic (like orgoloves) and the name/description is extremely straightforward. I poke someone and they know I poked them. If they don't know (and I wasn't roleblocked somehow) then it is because they have murrayitis. Artanis will tell me this. This means that if they DIDN'T get poked AND i don't get told they have murrayitis, that either: A. Something stopped me from going forward with the role. A roleblocker or something else. B. The person I poked lied. So I'm just going to leave that at that. That's how my role works. As far as the idea that maybe I'm lying about my role, sure anything is possible but lets look at my post history: In the beginning of the thread Node was saying things that led me to believe that we might have the same role. I tried to fish to see if we did indeed have the same role. On October 30 2010 06:18 DoctorHelvetica wrote: i have a feeling we have the same role actually am i poking at the truth here? Here I am trying to see if he responds to the term "poke". He doesn't so I try something a bit more obvious. No one except another sticky would get the reference and if Node wasn't the second sticky maybe someone else was. Basically I wanted to confirm that if I was the only sticky or not. If there was a second sticky who responded, I would know for a fact they were town aligned, and I would poke them during the night. On October 30 2010 06:21 DoctorHelvetica wrote: now i'm thinking we don't have the same role, that puts me in a sticky situation but thats ok This is my more obvious fish. This is very early in the thread. Later kingjames discovers the significance of the name "Sticky" when Glasse tells me it sounds made up. Originally I thought sticky had something to do with that my body was covered in a sticky substance or something that made me immune to Murrayitis or that I was just a stick that poked people. I forgot about the Bill Murray "Sticky" death post. It doesn't make sense that I wouldn't understand the name of a role that I MADE UP in the first place. So lets say I made the role up. That means: 1. I anticipated Artanis' Bill Murray theme 2. Created a fake role which depends on indirectly communicating with other players, something that can be blocked. If I am mafia this requires me to out mafia to survive or sacrifice myself to a distrusting town for basically no reason or benefit 3. Coordinated with Node to fake a fish for the role I made up to appear as (presumably as Godfather) so I could later defend myself a few thousand posts later And that I did all this to become mayor. A role that is NOT immune to rolechecks as it normally is, only has 1 extra vote (a negligible power since afaik mafia started out with 2 extra potential votes in the first place and there are other voting powers in the game. This diminishes the power of the mayor to swing bandwagons on his own) Occams razor. Occams razor. That is my general defense of the assaults that are happening on me right now. I believe this assault is a combination of mafia and misled town. The problem is determining who amongst this faction is town and who is mafia. Knowing Pandain it is quite possible somebody wound him up and let him go off. Speculating on this will be difficult until we actually get a dead mafia. Then alliances in this game will become quite clear. The problem is getting our first lynch right. If vigilantes want to use your hit tonight, hit a player from the opposite "faction" or argumentative side as whoever was lynched unless the lynchee was a mafia. So now I want to say some things about a few bad assumptions players are making: 1. Godfather exists 2. M-rus is a mafia ability 3. There has to be a mafia mayor candidate and it's one of the main ones Watch out for people who continue talking about the godfather as though he is a for sure role in this game. Artanis confirmed it is up in the air. This however we do know, concerning the godfather. 1. If the Godfather exists, he must MAKE UP a role to appear as. If someone appears as a different role than they claimed in a DT check this is a huge paint for godfather as the GF has no way of knowing what roles are or aren't in the game. 2.If anyone else comes up as "Sticky" on a rolecheck besides myself, they're probably the Godfather. No one responded to my Sticky fish early in the game BUT because I believe I was the first person to reveal the name of my role the Godfather would know the name of 1 role in the game and it would be reasonable for him to choose that role. It was Glasse who first asked that I name my role. 2. Also we are assuming M-rus is a mafia ability. Node's roleclaim (and the fact that there are 3 deaths in the day) means we can pretty much forget the idea that the "2+1" mafia KP is 2 hits + 1 m-rus infection. I think it is more likely that M-rus is simply RNG'd onto a player or that another players role (not necessarily a mafia one) alludes to the fact that you are an insane/unknown M-rus carrier. If the mafia spread M-Rus, perhaps they choose the person to put it on on day 1 and then thats it? The disease spreads quickly by how people visit eachother in the night, if the mafia could just continue spreading it around I think it would be very overpowered and they'd have half the town dead pretty quickly. 3. The mayor is not very strong in this game. Mafia don't need a mayor and in fact it might be more trouble for them than it's worth. 1 bodyguard, 1 extra vote, and that's really it as far as the mafia is concerned. Mafia aren't too scared of night kills as vig hits don't usually come until the late game and the main advantage of a mafia mayor is that he can't be rolechecked meaning you can give the Godfather role to another player. Consider not only the intense scrutiny that the campaign brought initially (on myself, bum, pandain, and fishball) but the inense scrutiny that I am under now. Scrutiny on other mayoral candidates has since dropped off. I believe that if mafia ran for mayor, it is quite possible it was one of the candidates that didn't do very well in the voting process. The mafia can then push the idea that "one of the main mayoral candidates MUST be mafia" while their initial runs for mayor go unscrutinized and unchecked. This is a possiblity. I do have suspicions that Pandain is mafia due to his poor attacks on me. Lastly I want to say something. Forget about scumtells and all this stuff. When you look at what a player posts, yeah scumtells are all well and good, but any good mafia can point out a million scumtells that townies do and their town bandwagons depend on this. Look at a players goal. What is a player trying to accomplish? Is he arguing with the intent to get information crucial to the town or is he arguing with the intent to make a player look bad? Scum wants to do the latter. They don't want the town to have any information, they don't care. What they do care about is that the town thinks someone else is scum or at the very least that the town doesn't trust the word of an experienced ally. Always think about the goal of the argument as well as the argument itself. Rhetoric is very important. Factions forming in the town This is something that is absolutely toxic to our ability to work together as a town to scumhunt. By creating what appears to be alliances, the mafia can make several town players look bad or bus one mafia player to make several town players look bad. If we look at the series of defenses/attacks players have made on eachother a player could conclude that factions are forming within the game. Just remember, it isn't necessarily all mafia on one side and one on the other. Dividing the town, creating factions, and drawing attention away from the facts and the arguments benefits the mafia. These factions are worth looking at when a mafia gets lynched and it becomes apparent who may have been a scumbuddy to that player. That's my thoughts on the situation. I'll do some specific player analysis later. I'll be focusing on the seemingly opposing bandwagons concerning youngminii and Aeres as I feel mafia is behind one of these. I'd like to ask Pandain a question. You said you would/could confirm yourself as townie even if you weren't mayor. You criticize me because i failed to do so. You also haven't confirmed yourself at all something that was part of your campaign promise. It strikes me as a tad bit hypocritical. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
Youngminii First post: On October 29 2010 14:55 youngminii wrote: I buy fishball's story. I don't buy bum's. This was fishy because he made no attempt to back this up. However I felt that a vote for fishball was less fishy than a last minute change from fishball to me so I made SiNiquity my #1 vote target. After SiNiquity martyred himself I switched back to youngminii, who dodged the lynch and SiNiquity died. I'll talk about the lynch dodge later. On October 31 2010 19:50 youngminii wrote: hi Sorry for not having been on in a while, I've been away from a computer for a bit (did not know it was going to happen). I'll skim the thread before I say anymore. It's too hard to tell a good excuse for inactivity for a bad one. This is nonconclusive. I will say this. Mafia's favorite thing to do is to make a player look suspicious because "he is making an excuse for being inactive" or because "oh they're inactive". So many players are usually inactive in a game mafia just has to swing the inactive bandwagon on to a blue player. In a normal set-up inactive players often have power roles and post rarely in the thread in fear that they'll somehow out themselves to the mafia. Be wary of hyperfocus on inactive players. On October 31 2010 20:20 youngminii wrote: oh god that was a shitfest, i didn't read everything to the full but i got the general gist of what's going on Before you ask me to do something stupid like roleclaim, ask yourselves: Why in God's name would scum have an ability that allows them to not die? Lynches always bypass the 'oh this guy has two lives' thing anyway. Why would I not try to defend myself after being pressured for so long? If you thought I was biding my time so that someone could try to take the attention away from me, why didn't anyone? DrH I'm surprised you didn't think of the second question. Also, a whole lot of your reasoning for your accusations in this thread comes from the metagame, which is stupid because some people like not playing the same style every single game. Stop relying on the metagame, especially if you've only seen me play *once*. Hang on, your reasoning is flawed anyway because if you actually used the metagame, you would have seen my active posting in Haunted Mafia as scum. Why in the world would you still try and get me lynched? Unlynchable/Judas can just as well be a mafia role as a town role. The bold part struck me as strange because I think youngminii knows better than to use such a WIFOM argument. His second part "lynches bypass the two lives thing" is irrelevant. Obviously that is not his role since he dodged the lynch. He paints me as relying on the metagame, which is not the case. I've referred to it and used it in my analysis, I haven't relied on it. I don't feel the metagame should be totally ignored. We as a town agreed to lynch an inactive on the first day and I felt that YM was the most suspicious amongst the inactives. It's simple. I responded to his post and this argument didn't really go anywhere. On November 01 2010 03:42 youngminii wrote: No comment. Doesn't that mean the bodyguard can't get hit at night by scum anyway? Pandain basically says here "We don't want you to roleclaim just tell us about your role and why you didn't die (aka roleclaim plz)". Youngminii doesn't fall into this potential trap and doesn't comment. Good. On November 01 2010 04:07 youngminii wrote: Seriously Pandain? The lynch is the town's greatest weapon, you can't make scum immune to lynches without making the game horribly imbalanced. In any case, why don't you think about it carefully before telling me to claim? If I'm invincible, no one will believe me. If I'm immune to lynches, mafia will kill me. If I'm able to manipulate something, that will make me just as suspicious as I am now. Stop being an idiot and play the game properly. You always do this over-analytical crap which doesn't work. Go back a step and think before you post. Maybe you should start with the first post where clearly says PMs are not allowed. His point here is good. The town has nothing to gain from youngminii roleclaiming at this point. what they do have is a potentially good role to lose. On November 01 2010 04:17 youngminii wrote: He didn't PM me, he seems to be using "why aren't you PMing others" as an argument. Sorry Pandain, you're not an idiot, your arguments are. So you're assuming that I can PM people and your argument is that I should be roleclaiming through PMs? And please, tell me how letting me die is a good thing? Back up your arguments. In any case, your posts have been hugely scummy to me, but then again they always are. I've never been in a mafia game where you've given solid arguments as a townie. YoungMinii doesn't seem to like Pandain D: (then again I guess you could say the same thing about me times a billion in this thread.) Pandain is pretty clearly trying to backtrack his way out of the fact that he was rolefishing here. YoungMinii does a good job of explaining why he disagrees with Pandain but is being quite harsh. I can confirm from watching his behind the scenes play in haunted mafia that youngminii is just a harsh dude, it's part of his personality. I thought he and quickstriker were gonna kill eachother in irc D: On November 01 2010 04:22 youngminii wrote: Translation: Aeres is scum and he's making up the role. By answering this question, I would be confirming the existence of the fake role and as such, I can't give a real answer. Maybe. Drawing way too heavy of a conclusion from that post already. This is a pretty early accusation of Aeres and it's interesting to note that it came before Ace essentially started the Aeres bandwagon. If the mafia wanted to kill Aeres, why would the focus on him so specifically? Why would they continue this focus after Aeres came out as not being bodyguard. If Aeres is town, it's pretty simple. He's the easiest target to lynch because he lied and admitted it. This is before Aeres lied though. However Aeres claims were very suspicious and youngminii's suspicions aren't poorly founded. I wasn't necessarily convinced that he was a bodyguard but I did want to believe it (as having 2 bg's would be nice D  On November 01 2010 04:28 youngminii wrote: Yeah but that's just saying "IF there's a role like the one Aeres is claiming then it would be so" Why are you so sure there are 2 bodyguards? Wasn't your logic behind the 1 bodyguard theory based on the assumption that DCX is a bodyguard? I don't see why not. Putting a lot of pressure on Aeres here, but it comes off as sensible to me. Aeres roleclaim was illogical and youngminii is catching him in some inconsistent claims. This is a good town post if you ask me. On November 01 2010 04:46 youngminii wrote: Why would you say this if you only think there are 2 bodyguards because of dcx's 'claim'? Good catch. Why would Aeres say this? On November 01 2010 10:28 youngminii wrote: Okay I don't care what's going on right now since it doesn't seem to be anything of great substance. Why is no one pointing their finger at Aeres? Did you not read the night post? A bodyguard died (Annul). Now according to LSB/Artanis, there's only one bodyguard. Maybe he's lying but if he is, we're still operating under the assumption that DCL softclaimed bodyguard. So that makes 3 in total. Aeres's claim never made sense to me anyway, and the scumtells that he dropped (oh hey I'm assuming there's two bodyguards because of DCL's softclaim.. But what if DCL isn't a bodyguard? Who's the other one?). It almost looked as if Aeres was trying to gain our trust, make us lose trust in DCL and weed out any other bodyguards that may have tried to claim. this is an improtant part of the post because it points out a possible mafia motivation for Aeres' actions. The people jumping on the youngminii bandwagon have tried to claim that "Aeres play makes sense as town not mafia" when it's been demonstrated a few times that's not really quite the case. On November 01 2010 12:13 youngminii wrote: LAL Lynch All Liarsss On November 01 2010 12:14 youngminii wrote: Pandain, slow down. Stop posting. Stop spamming the thread with long but useless information. DrH, stop replying to his 'arguments'. You'll just detract from other, more important issues. On November 01 2010 12:17 youngminii wrote: Sure that's important. The arguments being put forward (mainly by Pandain) are not important. They are useless, misguided and nothing will be brought up out of them. The only thing they might be able to do is convince some people to vote for DrH without any conclusive evidence. Focus on Aeres. In case you don't know, LAL = Lynch All Liars. He is very insistent on ending the argument I'm having with Pandain. Now I agree Pandain's arguments were illogical and dumb, but his intense focus on the Aeres bandwagon is something people brought up as suspicious. Why is it suspicious? Mafia don't focus down on a target like that unless they REALLY want them dead, especially this early in the game when their voting power isn't that strong. Mafia change their targets to what they think is the easiest, what's gonna bring the least criticism on them, what arguments does the town want to hear? A townie has every reason to focus down on the player they most suspect, since it is essential that scumlynches occur. Anything else could very well be mafia noise and distraction. Attempts to discredit focus don't cut it for me. On November 01 2010 12:31 youngminii wrote: His 'lies' are more like promises that turned out to be untrue due to unforeseen circumstances. Do you not see what's happening? Someone: So DrH I think you might be lying because of x DrH: Well I wasn't lying but y happened so it looks like I was lying about x but there might also be the possibility of z (ie. he's covering all bases) Pandain: So you expect us to believe you about y AND z? How convenient that you came up with them (then he goes back to the original arguments that DrH already covered) Just stop it. This is a good post. Pandain never responded though of course. Continual focus on Aeres On November 01 2010 12:45 youngminii wrote: That's not the point. There's no way of finding out whether or not our Mayor is a blue or a red as of now. The arguments that Pandain is putting up are ridiculous and stretched way too far, if you honestly keep up with your persistent following of this idiocy (I'm talking about his arguments, not Pandain himself) then I'm going to have to label you as scum following a blind argument aimed at taking down a blue mayor. Defending me. While I'm glad somebody agrees Pandains arguments were dumb mafia would have a good motivation to attach themselves to me and make it appear as though they are on my side. If they die and flip red the mafia can easily use that to get me lynched. That's why I don't like speculating too much about factions, it can really go either way. On November 01 2010 12:47 youngminii wrote: Just stop replying to him, no one except infinitestory (and his scum buddies if he's scum) will listen to him. You'll drag it on too. On November 01 2010 12:56 youngminii wrote: Would be nice and all if Pandain didn't play like this all the time. I'm still waiting for a counter argument for/from Aeres, until then my vote will stand. @inifinitestory: So we elected DrH because we thought he'd be able to confirm. Now there may be a way for a red to take away that ability to confirm OR they may be the possibility that DrH is red. So you want to spam up the thread and kill him based on that? At most, I see this as a 50/50 chance, mathematically speaking. I see Aeres as a much better investment. P.S. I'm ignoring you Pandain, I don't feel the need to respond to your argument and spam the thread even more. On November 01 2010 13:07 youngminii wrote: You don't fake a roleclaim to confuse mafia. You will only end up confusing town, especially if you do it early in the game. Everyone knows this. Even if there was the small chance that he's telling the truth, he deserves to be killed because of the simple fact that he lied and confused town. His lie and DrH's 'lie' are completely different things. This type of play is discouraged and he should be killed off for it, Bill Murray used to do it a lot to the great dismay of everyone. LAL This is the truth, really. It causes way more harm to the town than it does to the mafia. This I disagree with. If we knew somehow that Aeres was 100% town it would be dumb to lynch him especially when the role "Cruiseship Captain" that he claimed could be valuable. On November 01 2010 13:07 youngminii wrote: The only real reason I can think of is he played extremely well in Haunted Mafia (carried us to victory). Maybe they saw him as a threat. On November 01 2010 13:13 youngminii wrote: I've been thinking about this for a while now. Mafia use a chatroom or something similar as an efficient tool for chatting. Often times the mods of the game join the chatroom to oversee what's happening. So at the point where Aeres had already roleclaimed the second bodyguard (after Annul) a lot of people were asking Artanis whether or not he made lies up. Artanis replied that he would not give an outright lie. This would tell us there is only one bodyguard (unless I'm missing something) which essentially outs Aeres as a liar. So I'm thinking Artanis probably gave Aeres a heads up that he was going to say what he said about the lies beforehand so that Aeres could get a chance to redeem himself a little bit by admitting his lie. ie. he was backed into a corner with no more options. I'm probably horribly wrong on this though, heh. Fair enough. On November 01 2010 13:15 youngminii wrote: You're going to die anyway. Unless the mafia are allowed to move the hit? On November 01 2010 13:19 youngminii wrote: Trust? Too much relaxation? As scum they could put us into a state of 'oh hey the Mayor has a bodyguard, he won't die, we don't need a doctor to protect him' if we think he's still got an active bodyguard. I mean, who the hell would actually go to the trouble of making an entire 'Cruiseship Captain' role by themself? Looks like it was looked over and peer reviewed by an entire team of people imo. The original Cruiseship Captain Crap: Now i'm not sure. The cruiseship captain seems like it could be a legit role. This is really not useful speculation since we don't know what Artanis is thinking. On November 01 2010 13:47 youngminii wrote: You should see Pandain's style of play in other games. In almost every game as town he would pull this type of shit and get killed and flip town and cause mass confusion. @jcarl: I understand what you mean by the town being very secure about me but there's not much they can do. As far as they can tell, I might be invincible and trying to kill me will do nothing. In any case, there's not really anything toooooo scummy about my (perceived) role imo. True. Pandain is a pretty scummy town player. On November 01 2010 14:05 youngminii wrote: Well then we should kill Aeres and find out, no? ^_^ Kills for information, not a strategy I like. I suppose there is no better alternative, we have to lynch somebody and ym/ace made a good case for Aeres. On November 01 2010 14:50 youngminii wrote: I cannot think of these situations you refer to but I'm about a hundred percent sure that a softclaim that was vague at best (which turned out to not be a claim) at basically the beginning of the game does not warrant a roleclaim that not only claims the bodyguard role but an extra Cruiseship Captain role. Oh, let's not forget the fact that he said that the mods lied about the number of bodyguard roles too. Good point here. On November 01 2010 15:08 youngminii wrote: Someone was killed with the role of ADD Doctor, which stated that you had a 10% chance of killing the patient if he wasn't being hit (or something like that). After the death, Artanis stated that the 10% chance was a lie and he would never have actually killed anyone. This tells us there are small, gay lies but no outright ones. On November 01 2010 15:18 youngminii wrote: Oh right. There were quite a few. Even I thought the mods were lying because they never said anything about it. On November 01 2010 22:24 youngminii wrote: Actually I'm just waiting for a counter argument. There's only so much I can say by myself, it takes two to create a discussion. On November 01 2010 22:25 youngminii wrote: Interesting theory. We should keep this in mind, perhaps? On November 01 2010 23:50 youngminii wrote: I apologise, I can try be more inactive just for you. What a great argument you have there. I've already said I was afk for basically all of day 1, are you seriously saying you can't see that? Probably made a 'newbie' mistake? It's a pretty huge mistake/scumtell if you looked at it carefully, I don't see why you're letting the cookie thief get away without even a slap on the wrist. I look at my arguments and then I look at the argument I threw out. Pandain and DrH going at it about how DrH has no way of proving he's innocent. Is this argument constructive? No, it will bring nothing new to the table. No analysis, except maybe Pandain's overeagerness of going for DrH. My arguments are designed to punish the liar, the person who got caught red handed in his 'one man hero attempt to save the bodyguard'. I'm still waiting for the counterargument and it's not coming. So yeah, I think I'll go ahead and gun him. I wasn't aware I had a style of being quiet until I'm lynched if I was just a townie. If you could direct me to a game where I did this, please do. Ditto for my typical 'pro-town' play. Oh yeah, how is it worth nothing I'm not 'just a townie'? You realise there are no 'just a townies' in this game, right? Or are you that inactive? I'd appreciate it if you stopped pulling idiotic arguments out. Thank you very much, I'm not sure Amber read the thread all the way through. He didn't catch my roleclaim and a few other bits of key information so I'm just gonna disregard the first part here. Amber's entire argument here is pretty much meta. Youngminii makes the case for his lynch of Aeres. This is a good post by YM imo. On November 01 2010 23:55 youngminii wrote: I don't even... What? I've said time and time again I'm waiting for you to argue. I'm not 100% certain you're scum, I don't think anyone is, and you have this time to point out why we shouldn't lynch you. It is never, ever good town play to lynch yourself unless there's a special scenario/mechanic that directly helps town to do it. Another good point by youngminii. IMO this shows that he isn't a mafia hellbent on lynching Aeres (could be a mafia trying to do something else) but is merely interested in lynching whoever the best target is at the time. If he was mafia wanting a bandwagon on Aeres, there is no reason to make a post cautioning the town that he might be a VI. On November 02 2010 00:03 youngminii wrote: I was scum. Nice try though. Thanks for the 4000th amber made a dumb mistake here : / maybe i should read through ambers posts Well that's the end of YM's posts. I think youngminii is a pro-town player. Amber's attempts to metagame and make youngminii look mafia for it were pathetic and fell flat on their face. He has shown that he is willing to consider a better target than Aeres should it arise, and his arguments against Aeres in the first place are mostly good ones. Aside from that he's contributed other useful posts throughout the thread. Now I'll talk about the lynch dodge. I know of three roles that can dodge lynches: unlynchable (either mafia or town) saulus (mafia) judas (town) The unlynchable does not get lynched the first time he is lynched. The second time it will work. The saulus is a mafia player that when lynched the first time becomes town. I consider this an OP role because the saulus can then release the mafia list, unless the saulus is a player intentionally kept in the dark about who else is mafia. the judas is a town player that when lynched the first time becomes mafia. Opposite of Saulus. My main concern for youngminii is that this is his role. It is also possible that a bus type of role acted on youngminii/SiN or that a pardoner type role was somehow involved. Ultimately speculation is nonconclusive and i'd be highly suspicious of further attempts to force youngminii to roleclaim. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On November 02 2010 08:39 Pandain wrote: Remember it's indirect, there's no real way to confirm my role. But come by day 2,3, I'll probably have enough to basically be confirmed. Interesting post btw, I'll definitely consider it in my analysis. Yes i remember. Alright, as long as you haven't tossed this point aside, I'm ok with that. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On November 02 2010 08:27 infinitestory wrote: 1) There may not be a godfather. That's true. But it's better IMO to operate under the assumption that there is, rather than the assumption that there isn't. If there is a godfather, and we assume there isn't, that can be devastating. If there isn't a godfather, and we assume there is, then the harm is less. It's better to operate under no assumption at all, in my opinion. 2) We're not assuming M-Rus is a mafia ability. M-RUS IS A MAFIA ABILITY. 3) I find it ever so slightly contradictory that you campaigned based on "I can confirm 100% my role, but none of the other candidates can confirm 100% that they're blue." But now, once you're elected mayor, you're pushing the idea that all of the main candidates are blue, without even a single confirmation. If you trust that there are no reds amongst the main mayor candidates, you should trust Pandain too, right? I never said I don't trust there are no mafia candidates. I just wanted to say there is no reason we should assume there is. I don't think all the main candidates are blue at all. You'll note I did not say "mafia probably didn't run for mayor" just that "it could make a lot of sense if they didn't." I'm not pushing the idea. I'm bringing it up as a possibility because I don't want the mafia to push the assumption and suspicion constantly onto main mayor candidates when it's quite possible none of them are mafia. I also find it a bit odd you made it a point here to put a soft defense on Pandain. You're a good reader InfiniteStory, why are you telling me I'm making arguments/statements that I'm not making at all? Good catch on number 2. I retract that statement. Good reading. My responses otherwise in red. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
i'm combing through aeres' posts right now funnily enough he's defended me harder than probably any player in the game, much moreso than youngminii. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/search.php?q=&t=c&f=-1&u=Aeres&gb=date If you feel I'm intentionally withholding information, feel free to call me on it. Nothing stands out. Talks about the election and he doesn't really make any points of his own. Nothing strikes me as being very town or very mafia. On October 30 2010 08:31 Aeres wrote: How many Bodyguards are assigned to a Mayor upon election, and through what method? Interest in the role of bodyguard before the election is over. Just something to note, since if you are of the opinion that Aeres is mafia this means he could be planning his roleclaim already. On October 30 2010 09:53 Aeres wrote: Calm down, man. Tensions are expected to run high in a game based on lies and deception, but you don't need to blow your stack like that. People take you more seriously if you post with a more even-tempered tone. agreed coag u need to chill brah On October 31 2010 00:39 Aeres wrote: Wow, quite a bit of discussion happened while I was in dreamland. Despite all of the suspicion that's fallen around the Doc, my vote remains with him. I'm also feeling really shitty today, so I'm not really in the mood to do a lot of quote analysis and C/P'ing, but he makes a good case for himself and offers a practical solution that addresses the possibilities of him either being Mafia or spreading Murrayitis with the stick. I personally don't think that Orgolove, one of the Doc's primary opponents, argues his point sufficiently for me to change my vote. I do not feel this because of past actions in Haunted Mafia, so I have no bias in that regard. I am speaking strictly in terms of the events that have transpired in this game, and those actions seem to me like Orgolove relies on word-twisting and subtle attacks to discredit people. There's nothing wrong with that methodology in a game like Mafia; in fact, I would encourage that playstyle. However, I feel that he's a bit too hostile and not convincing enough for my vote to be swayed. + Show Spoiler + Note to Orgolove: In no way do I mean to come across as antagonistic toward you. I simply don't agree with your method of debate thus far; I hope you understand this. =) Oh, and by the way, at the very beginning of this game, where you said you were gonna run for Mayor and use a spreadsheet, you'll recall that I said that spreadsheet was a reason I wouldn't vote for you because of complications last game. You seem to feel that it was because the data on it pinned me as Mafia. I'd just like to point out that that isn't why I'm against the spreadsheet. (In fact, I don't think it ever did put any solid evidence on me as Mafia... if anything, I myself inadvertently planted the seeds of my demise by correcting your profile description of me, saying it was Joe Pesci, a movie actor in MAFIA films *cough cough*. Stupid move by me, to be honest.) No, it was because that spreadsheet, despite your best efforts, was riddled with errors and misinformation, which skewed the discussion of clues in the thread. I say this because I want to drive the point home that I disagree with your methodology in terms of this game only; I don't have any weird vendetta against you. =) I'll probably talk more if/when I feel better today. I'm still reading the topic and what transpires here, though, so I definitely won't be out of the loop. decent post explaining his reasoning but doesn't really say too much in terms of original points On October 31 2010 06:08 Aeres wrote: I don't think that's fair to accuse Glasse of shitting up the thread when I've done more of it than he has. If anything, blame me. = / If I had to go with my gut instinct, I'd say either NB or ghrur. I have nothing concrete on either of them, but they feel somehow... strange. Not fishy, that's too cliché... merely strange. Aeres is right, he hella spammed. I don't really like his meek/submissive tone it implies a little bit of implicit guilt. Here comes the big one, I'm gonna deconstruct this post in red. On November 01 2010 04:12 Aeres wrote: Okay, since it seems that the Doc's position as Mayor is in jeopardy, I'm going to put some interesting info out there. Artanis lied. big assumption there There are two Bodyguards, not one. I don't know who the first one is (I suspect it's DC), but I am the second one. we know this is a lie. I was going to play dumb about my role of Bodyguard until DC screwed up. I dunno if he really is the other Bodyguard, but if he is, I feel like if he was killed, then the Mafia, upon learning that there is a second Bodyguard (due to a failed hit on Mayor), would start hitting the most outspoken townspeople in lieu of the Mayor. Since I am in fact one of the more outspoken people in this topic, I was at risk of being "tapped", so to speak. He talks about his past behavior/thoughts concerning the role of bodyguard which seems strange for a protown liar. He showed some express interest in the workings of the bodyguard role. It seems like he wanted to understand the role a lot better before he faked his roleclaim, a mafia would want to cover all the bases and would probably work harder at it IMO. I would also like to note that my normal role greatly assists my ability to act as a Bodyguard. Since Bodyguards block hits on the Mayor, killing them makes the Mayor vulnerable. My role is designed to increase my longevity as long as possible. It's odd that you're talking about how your role assists you in being bodyguard because it serves the exact opposite purpose you CLAIMED you were trying to achieve with your fake roleclaim. My role is called the "Cruiseship Captain". I am eligible to PM a mod in order to set sail for the ocean and leave town for the night, thus becoming immune to any and all night actions (positive and negative alike, including roleblocks and DT checks). I am not permitted to set sail on consecutive nights. Because of this mechanic, I can survive on my own for a short while. Having a Medic tend to me will not be necessary for the first few nights. Once my role has been exhausted of uses (I do not know how many times I can set sail in this game, only that it is more than once), Medics are more than welcome to assist me. Later you say you're trying to draw hits to yourself, because you can protect yourself. However, by saying this the mafia is less likely to hit you than any other bodyguard (you claim DC is one of them and funnily enough it turns out that it seems he's going to die). Why are the mafia going to waste their hits on a bodyguard claiming "you can't hit me?" you're not trying to soak up shit. Also, please keep in mind that my role has an additional function that I am not presently willing to reveal. I think at this point maybe you should if we are to believe you. It's do or die. Yeah, this is all great, Aeres, but now you sound mighty suspicious to me! Well, yes, I cannot deny that I seem fishy (pardon the pun, I am a Cruiseship Captain, after all). I also imagine it does not help my case that setting sail makes me immune to DT checks. I assure you all, however, that I am working in the interests of the town. Believe me, I'd rather not cause suspicion when it isn't warranted, but DC's possibly slip-up forced my hand. Oddly enough you didn't seem to consider the fact that you were the only bodyguard and that DC was lying. You immediately went to "artanis is lying and there are 2 bodyguards." There is no reason for a bodyguard to claim for pro-town reasons. Later it turns out that DC didn't claim bodyguard, is going to die, and the real bodyguard died. Whoops. On November 01 2010 04:16 Aeres wrote: Yeah, I might have been a bit hasty, but I can at least control the times I am vulnerable and the times I am not. I would think that the time stalled for by roleclaiming would be equal to the time stalled by Mafia hitting you in vain. Talking about how he can protect me when it's clear that his claim isn't designed to draw hits and that he has no real way of protecting me at all. On November 01 2010 03:07 Aeres wrote: Congrats on the Queen, Bum! Liked the Lurker better, but meh. As for your point, I agree for the most part. However, I would argue that it might be advantageous to roleclaim if your role allows something similar to what youngminii did to avoid the lynch. There might be strategic value in roleclaiming some other powerful role to waste a KP or lynch. I'm not sure what the balance is between offensive, defensive, and investigative roles might be, though, so it's possible that only a few people fit this bill. A fair bit of WIFOM comes into play here, but it might pan out. On November 01 2010 04:24 Aeres wrote: As has been stated before (and most likely again later), this is INSANE Mafia. We have no idea what Artanis and LSB are capable of throwing at us. I hope that DC actually isn't a Bodyguard as he implied. If he wasn't, that means there's still a hidden Bodyguard out there, and I can stall for time while the Mafia searches for the hidden one. In that period, we can coalesce into a more organized town and start trying to get at the Mafia. Aeres is really pushing the mistrust of Artanis/LSB when he knows they didn't lie because he is the liar. Hmm. On November 01 2010 08:33 Aeres wrote: Now THIS has got me very suspicious of the Doctor. What I'm getting from this is that BrownBear tried to manipulate the election results so that the Doc wouldn't win, but he failed, and the Mafia killed him. This makes it seem like the Doc is scum. I mean, it's a good thing for a Mayor to be town, so if BrownBear was killed for doing good, does that mean his efforts to get the town control from Mafia failed because the Doc or another Mafioso caught wind of what was happening? He was my most enthusiastic defender earlier in the thread. This seems pretty far-fetched to me but of course I'm biased. On November 01 2010 11:43 Aeres wrote: Alright, it's confession time. I was indeed lying. I am not a Bodyguard. When 666 was accused of roleclaiming Bodyguard, I freaked out a bit. I figured that if he was indeed a Bodyguard, then Mafia might try to take him down and leave the Doc defenseless. I didn't want that to happen, so I pretended to be Bodyguard to throw Mafia off and give the town some time to plan. There wasn't much I could have done as a townie with the role I have, based as it is on self-preservation; that role is more useful in the hands of a Mafia. I figured that I might as well try and make use of the role I had, and see if it did any good. When I had typed out that post of me false-claiming, I just looked at the post I had made, pondering if this was a good move. In the end, after like 5 minutes of thinking, I decided that I wouldn't know until I tried. I tried a risky strategy, and I fucked up. I had a feeling my plan would either work splendidly or fail miserably. Clearly, the latter possibility occurred, since 666 wasn't the Bodyguard at all. Nothing really else to say... I took a chance and missed the mark. I meant what I said when I stated I was acting for the good of the town. At this point, I understand if my word has little value, but I am not lying when I say I am town. (I wanted to experiment in this game, since it was unorthodox to begin with. I apologize for screwing up town by being too bold. =( Please don't hate me....) He says he had a plan but he doesn't tell us what it was. You've been caught, why would you not tell us? I guess what his plan might have been and he agrees but in retrospect it's weird he didn't just say so in the first place. especially since after I went over his original post claiming bodyguard it's very clear that his claim was not designed to do this at all. On November 01 2010 11:52 Aeres wrote: I was AFK, writing a paper for school. As soon as I was finished, I wrote the confession post. Understandable. I'm still new to Mafia, and I still have a lot of learning to do concerning the nuances of the game. I tried something, it didn't work, and I'm taking heat for it. I had a feeling this would happen, but I don't particularly regret it, as I wanted to experiment, as I said before. baww i'm new i wanted to experiment it was just a risky plan. you are posting with a lot of guilty rhetoric. If it was truly a failed pro town gambit, there is no real reason to act this way about it imo On November 01 2010 11:59 Aeres wrote: Meh, there's not much I can do to defend myself now. I'll leave it up to you guys, although at this point, I agree it's a liability to keep me alive. now he's just giving up. is this a bus? On November 02 2010 00:41 Aeres wrote: It's not a matter of conceding easily. I simply have no defense for myself. I lied to try and protect the Doc, I failed, and I fucked up the game. If I saw a way out of the mess I put myself in, I'd pursue it, but I just cannot see how I would be able to, especially since I've essentially lost any semblance of trustworthiness. As for the Village Idiot idea, don't you think it's odd for a VI to have a role that encourages survival? Why would that happen? And why would a VI be allowed to vote for himself? That seems like an overpowered role to me. Doesn't really seem to understand VI and I doubt Aeres is the VI anyway. I'm more convinced than ever that Aeres might be scum and considering my reanalysis of youngminii's post it seems that mafia are trying to push the bandwagon off of aeres and onto YM. I'm voting for aeres. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On November 02 2010 09:18 Fishball wrote: Once again, I repeat, QS was in the circle too. 6 total - 3 dead = 3 remaining, ok  ?Speaking of which, the 3rd member still have not replied to my PM regarding a request for a role claim. He just flat out did not reply to me. Considering the mafia likely know everyone who is in the circle, I think you should tell everybody as a town. It's just more information that we don't have that the mafia does. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On November 02 2010 09:16 Pandain wrote: happy birthday fishball Also, dr. H, why must you post so very very much i don't have anything else to do, that's why | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On November 02 2010 09:24 Fishball wrote: I've been considering it, but I respect the opinions of the other 2 members so I've been wanting to discuss with them; Only if one of the other guy get back to me first... Also, there is a fair chance that the Mafia DO NOT know about the circle members, considering one of the Mafia members in the circle was actually mod-killed for inactivity. Whether or not he would pass on the information, is another story. fair enough. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On November 02 2010 09:48 infinitestory wrote: I don't know. Claiming the mods lie to justify his own... I see Aeres' whole thing as a very fleshed out but shitty plan. His alibi has no clear contradictions in it (even the slip up in talking makes sense if you think about someone who must act as if there are multiple bodyguards to defend DrH) I'm not saying Aeres is town. I'm not saying he's a good or valuable player. I'm saying that youngminii's eagerness to lynch Aeres based on a lie, one which Aeres made a solid defense for, is suspicious. On top of that, youngminii refuses to defend himself, he defends DrH vigorously, and now DrH comes to his defense. Perhaps you're the one who must stop being blind, because youngminii's unexplained attempt at martyrdom is beyond suspicious, and almost nobody has made a single comment on it up until my post. He NEVER attempted martyrdom. This isn't the first time you've twisted peoples arguments to make them more extreme . Come on dude. Aeres didn't make any defense. He said he had a pro-town plan, didn't say what it was, then when I asked him if he was trying to soak hits he said yes when it';s clear reading his original claim that that is not a viable plan AT ALL. And shitting on youngminii for defending me is hilarious when Aeres has been one of my most fervent defenders since the first day lol | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On November 02 2010 09:56 infinitestory wrote: 1) If "I'm not going to defend myself against your argument" isn't martyrdom, I have NO clue what is. Enlighten me. 2) I don't think Aeres had a viable plan. His plan was terrible. That doesn't make it scummy for the reasons that youngminii listed. Aeres wanted to defend you, and I see no contradiction in trying to produce an extra bodyguard for the mafia to hit. It might not be a pretty or good solution, but it is not a scummy solution. Aeres explained his plan in full, and nobody's found a lie within that plan yet. That is what I mean by a solid defense. 3) It's more the fact that youngminii comes out of absolutely nowhere to defend you. Aeres defending you since the start is all fine and dandy, but youngminii's defense of you comes fairly out of the blue. martyrdom is saying "goa head lynch me idc" like AERES and SiNiquity did. Did I mention Aeres did that? Aeres did that. no he didn't explained his plan in full. he didn't explain his plan at all. he was intentionally vague and then when I asked what his plan could be he jumped immediately on to what I was talking about. HUGE difference. out of the blue? what makes a defense out of the blue or not? what does that mean "coming out of nowhere?" where should he come from? | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On November 02 2010 10:02 Ace wrote: @infitestory: Aeres did not explain his plan until DC revealed he never claimed bodyguard AND I called Aeres out on his lie. He outlined everything WAY after he caught lying. Big difference. he didn't outline it himself he basically said "well i had a plan that was protown" and I asked "oh was your plan (plan x)?" "yeah it was plan X, that's right" too bad plan x doesn't make any sense considering his roleclaim (soaking up mafia hits) | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On November 02 2010 10:06 infinitestory wrote: 1) hey siniquity cemented himself on our lynch list day 1 for martyring himself, thanks for reminding me about that 2) that doesn't sound particularly vague to me 3) Don't use that worthless rhetoric. He came out of the blue because he had one post on day 1, and only two (?) posts before he started defending you. You even noted that. That's why he was your #1 lynch on day 1, remember? 1)no he moved down on our lynch list because of it. we decided to lynch an inactive and they were the most suspicious two, I felt his martyring made him less suspicous than YM at the time (when he had little to no information to work with). But if you want to call YM suspicious for martyring, you have to say the same thing about Aeres. You can't be so selective with your logic. 2)where in that post does he actually describe his plan? "so I pretended to be Bodyguard to throw Mafia off and give the town some time to plan." Could he be any more vague? If his point was to draw a hit off of DCLXVI (who is dying anyway) why would he tell the mafia "oh btw I'll block the hits with my special role" that's basically telling them "HEY DONT HIT ME GUYS" 3)you're the one using worthless rhetoric. Doesn't matter when he defended me. So he's more suspicious for defending me later (when he already explained his day 1 inactivity very adequately) rather than sooner? Aeres is less suspicious for defending me because at least he's been doing it all the while? i fail to follow your logic. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On November 02 2010 10:09 NB wrote: It happens to be that node is the guy who has role to predict who mafia will kill next night.... lynching Node clearly an action to prevent nurse to save people.... for now, i will have my vote on Hyperbola while u guys bandwagon-ing on Aeres who i am 60% sure to be a result of mafia framing.... he's making a placeholder vote and it's clear he's not intending to start a bandwagon come on dude you are 60% sure to be a mafia framing? lol where did you get that statistic? | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On November 02 2010 10:07 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: [r]I think YM is the best Scum target we have, he’s consistently tried to get a bandwagon going on a player who probably made an honest mistake, he attacks Pandain over and over and over again and tries to shut the discussion about your townieness down. I’m actually getting suspicious of you know especially since you went really easy on YM imo. Your analysis was really soft and you got in several good shots at Pandain while you were at it.[/r] You say he probably just made an honest mistake? what makes you believe this? I feel I've pointed out a huge inconsistency in Aeres' defense and everyone seems to be ignoring it. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On November 02 2010 10:13 infinitestory wrote: I'm done arguing about this. I've heard both sides. You bring up valid points. Aeres did lie. He did confuse the town. He did have holes in his play. But he ended up revealing it all. I think I bring up valid points. Youngminii is far too fanatic about lynching Aeres. Youngminii didn't defend himself for a good while. Youngminii's posting behavior is erratic. But he's defended himself now. I'm going to keep my vote on youngminii. I'll stand by my own beliefs. I still don't want ANYONE bandwagoning on either candidate. I want everyone to read both sides of every argument. I hope we can at least agree that bandwagoning is undesirable, and that we should apply pressure to those who blindly vote or voted. "I'm done defending myself" not too different from what youngminii said really, just more subtle | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
what else do you want to talk about for the rest of the day? these are the two major bandwagons and now you suddenly just want to drop out of the conversation? | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On November 02 2010 10:18 infinitestory wrote: Happy page 100. Our argument, like the one you had with Pandain, is now going in circles. If you have any additional points to bring up, I'll hear them. If I have any additional points to bring up, I'll share them. On November 02 2010 10:12 DoctorHelvetica wrote: 1)no he moved down on our lynch list because of it. we decided to lynch an inactive and they were the most suspicious two, I felt his martyring made him less suspicous than YM at the time (when he had little to no information to work with). But if you want to call YM suspicious for martyring, you have to say the same thing about Aeres. You can't be so selective with your logic. 2)where in that post does he actually describe his plan? "so I pretended to be Bodyguard to throw Mafia off and give the town some time to plan." Could he be any more vague? If his point was to draw a hit off of DCLXVI (who is dying anyway) why would he tell the mafia "oh btw I'll block the hits with my special role" that's basically telling them "HEY DONT HIT ME GUYS" 3)you're the one using worthless rhetoric. Doesn't matter when he defended me. So he's more suspicious for defending me later (when he already explained his day 1 inactivity very adequately) rather than sooner? Aeres is less suspicious for defending me because at least he's been doing it all the while? i fail to follow your logic. these ones if you could highlight specifically where he highlights his plan in that post I'd love to hear it | ||
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