Pity timer and pack opening

Drazerk

United Kingdom31255 Posts

January 06 2016 17:01 GMT

So this has been a big deal so figured the information may as well be posted here in case people haven't seen the huge news. Basically the TLDR version is that after 30 packs of the same type your chance of getting a legendary increases dramatically -

+ Show Spoiler [Raw data for legendary drop chance] +

1 0.03036649
2 0.03532009
3 0.04152249
4 0.03911980
5 0.03372244
6 0.02989130
7 0.05150215
8 0.02760736
9 0.04807692
10 0.03247863
11 0.04659498
12 0.03207547
13 0.03155819
14 0.04948454
15 0.04687500
16 0.04047619
17 0.04750000
18 0.06382979
19 0.05780347
20 0.06211180
21 0.06081081
22 0.04868914
23 0.06324111
24 0.07659574
25 0.05633803
26 0.11458333
27 0.06024096
28 0.12582781
29 0.11627907
30 0.09909910
31 0.10204082
32 0.09090909
33 0.17721519
34 0.19047619
35 0.18000000
36 0.27500000
37 0.32142857
38 0.63157895
39 0.83333333
40 1.00000000

+ Show Spoiler [Raw data for Epics] +

1 0.1261175
2 0.1445559
3 0.1484099
4 0.1802417
5 0.2147956
6 0.2601010
7 0.3367935
8 0.4884547
9 0.7758007
10 1.0000000

Known max difference for each type of card:

Epic: 10
Legendary: 40
Golden Common: 25
Golden Rare: 29
Golden Epic: 137 - Probably higher since we need more data
Golden Legendary: 310 - Probably higher since we need more data

It should also be noted that it appears that Golden Epics and Golden Legendaries also do not reset the counter for regular Epics and the regular Legendaries. Meaning that you can still expect more dust income when you pull a golden legendary after not getting a legendary in a while. Also opening a legendary from say a vanilla pack does not effect the pity timer from say a GvG or TGT pack and visa versa.

For more information see these threads -

https://www.reddit.com/r/hearthstone/comments/3z7jyh/pity_timer_on_packs_opening_and_the_best_strategy/
https://www.reddit.com/r/hearthstone/comments/3zaeou/pity_timer_on_packs_opening_analysiskinda_proofed/
https://www.reddit.com/r/hearthstone/comments/3znt9m/continuing_information_on_the_pity_timer/

Glacierz

United States1245 Posts

January 06 2016 18:52 GMT

I wonder if this suggests that the cards in the packs are not generated until you open them? Although if you can't gift/sell packs and they are just queued sequence it's not necessarily true.

Gonozal

Germany320 Posts

January 06 2016 20:06 GMT

While i think the fact is pretty interesting, i will never get the reason why people have the desire to draw a line between points implying linearity (or even existing data points) in between.

mordek

United States12705 Posts

January 06 2016 20:12 GMT

On January 07 2016 03:52 Glacierz wrote:
I wonder if this suggests that the cards in the packs are not generated until you open them? Although if you can't gift/sell packs and they are just queued sequence it's not necessarily true.

Sei Shin Casios

Germany13 Posts

January 06 2016 21:06 GMT

does this reset after getting a legendary, or is it better to open 30++ packs in one go, because every pack opened further increases your chance, even if you already got a leg. card?

*edit: it obviously resets, or you would get 3-4 legendaries between 30-40 when opening 50 packs at once -.-
so is this limited for a short time after opening or does it stay like this until you finaly draw a legendary or switch card packs?
if its the later, fuck you blizzard and the "free" brawl classic packs...
at least that would explain how i managed to only draw 1 legendary in the last 4+ months...

*edit2:
thanks for the thread, i would not have read about it otherwise i think.

Noidberg

United States17 Posts

January 06 2016 21:33 GMT

Wow this is interesting and great news for the card game long term as the pity timer guarantees you collection diversity. Mad props to the devs for this. its really good news.

Also interestingly enough if you want more dust only buy classic packs as tavern brawl generates a free classic pack a week.

Edit: If only arena let you choose your pack type you could really abuse the system, haha!

Drazerk

United Kingdom31255 Posts

January 06 2016 23:04 GMT

On January 07 2016 06:06 Sei Shin Casios wrote:
does this reset after getting a legendary, or is it better to open 30++ packs in one go, because every pack opened further increases your chance, even if you already got a leg. card?

*edit: it obviously resets, or you would get 3-4 legendaries between 30-40 when opening 50 packs at once -.-
so is this limited for a short time after opening or does it stay like this until you finaly draw a legendary or switch card packs?
if its the later, fuck you blizzard and the "free" brawl classic packs...
at least that would explain how i managed to only draw 1 legendary in the last 4+ months...

*edit2:
thanks for the thread, i would not have read about it otherwise i think.

The pity timer is not effected by you logging in or out. It will last forever in theory. Each pack has a separate pity timer that isn't effected by the other pity timers. In theory you could have 39 packs in classic / 39 packs in GvG / 39 packs in TGT before getting a legendary

Sei Shin Casios

Germany13 Posts

January 07 2016 01:27 GMT

thanks for the quick response

so i guess its all for the best!

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