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On April 18 2022 10:01 calh wrote: Nope, the burning section is aft of the large missile tubes; you could vaguely see the intact tubes through the smoke. OTOH the black area at the waterline (just below the fire) looks like an entry hole? I think the hull on its left edge appears caved in a bit.
IMO the ship could have been shot with Harpoon or whatever anti-ship missile the West supplied clandestinely. Would explain the lack of Neptune launch pics/videos like the Ukraine usually shows for their victories, and US intel being weirdly reserved on the incident. The Neptune is an in house missile system that is bleeding edge tech. If it is this successful, and they are able to replicate such a success, this is a weapon they can sell to the united states industrial complex for billions and billions of dollars. Put dozens of them into Taiwan and they will never be threatened again.
They are probably desperately hiding where they are being stored and from what they were fired from. The BA-2 is an extremely useful piece of propaganda because everyone already knows about it and it takes its own footage. Having a secret weapon that can sink Capital vessels with ease is more useful as a secret.
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It is very hard to figure exactly where Russia would Tacticaly nuke Ukraine. Kyiv is the mother city of the Slavic people. It would enrage what allies he has outside of Europe and expose him as a madman inside of it. Anything on the deniper or near the deniper would irradiate the water sources of Crimea, defeating one of the main objectives of this invasion. Anything closer to Russia would see more and more Russians killed from the action. Anything closer to Poland would enrage the polish past the point anyone could control them and they would enter the war with fury and resolve to avenge decades of occupation. Poland honestly wouldn't need to invoke article 5 or demand any sort of NATO support. Russia would need to mobilize their reserves to stop them and Belarus would fall before they could mobilize. Any further nuclear escalation by Russia would result in the apocalypse.
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That and tactical nukes are useless weapons in the grand scheme of things. As one would be nuking the land/area they want to take control of.
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On April 18 2022 11:03 Sermokala wrote: Kyiv is the mother city of the Slavic people.
No. For us it's just occasional area of trouble. No strong feelings to the city, it's completely foreign soil. The closest emotional connection to that city we have in our coutry is story of chipping the blade Szczerbiec by Boleslav the Brave, first king of Poland.
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Yeah. Kyiv isn't especially important to most Slavs (Czechs, Slovaks, Slovenians, Croats, Serbs, Poles, Bosniaks, Macedonians). It is important to Ukrainians obviously, and I guess Russians, maybe Belorussians. Not sure about Bulgarians. That being said, we would, of course, be really upset about Kyiv being nuked. I am not certain how would our government respond, but I doubt it would be with war... Once again because of nukes.
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Kiev was the capital city of the Kievan Rus who are seen as a precursor state to Russia, Belarus and Ukraine. The Slavs were already in Europe centuries before that.
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What is NATO or the west supposed to do if Putin uses nukes? Nuking Russia seems like a really bad idea but if Putin is willing to use nukes, it seems that more sanctions aren't going to deter him.
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On April 18 2022 18:16 gobbledydook wrote: What is NATO or the west supposed to do if Putin uses nukes? Nuking Russia seems like a really bad idea but if Putin is willing to use nukes, it seems that more sanctions aren't going to deter him.
Check the Sam Gardner presentation I posted 17 h ago. I doubt he knows the current plan but it shouldn't be much different.
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On April 18 2022 18:36 Ghanburighan wrote:Show nested quote +On April 18 2022 18:16 gobbledydook wrote: What is NATO or the west supposed to do if Putin uses nukes? Nuking Russia seems like a really bad idea but if Putin is willing to use nukes, it seems that more sanctions aren't going to deter him. Check the Sam Gardner presentation I posted 17 h ago. I doubt he knows the current plan but it shouldn't be much different.
The video is over an hour long. What is the gist of it?
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On April 18 2022 10:56 Sermokala wrote:Show nested quote +On April 18 2022 10:01 calh wrote: Nope, the burning section is aft of the large missile tubes; you could vaguely see the intact tubes through the smoke. OTOH the black area at the waterline (just below the fire) looks like an entry hole? I think the hull on its left edge appears caved in a bit.
IMO the ship could have been shot with Harpoon or whatever anti-ship missile the West supplied clandestinely. Would explain the lack of Neptune launch pics/videos like the Ukraine usually shows for their victories, and US intel being weirdly reserved on the incident. The Neptune is an in house missile system that is bleeding edge tech. If it is this successful, and they are able to replicate such a success, this is a weapon they can sell to the united states industrial complex for billions and billions of dollars. Put dozens of them into Taiwan and they will never be threatened again. They are probably desperately hiding where they are being stored and from what they were fired from. The BA-2 is an extremely useful piece of propaganda because everyone already knows about it and it takes its own footage. Having a secret weapon that can sink Capital vessels with ease is more useful as a secret. I know you support Ukraine, but I think in this case the rhetoric should be toned down a little. Unlikely that the fresh (and what a trail!) Neptune missile is bleeding edge technology, considering the industrial base of Ukraine. Also "capital vessels" don't really exist as a category of surface vessel for a very long time.
On April 19 2022 04:00 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On April 18 2022 18:36 Ghanburighan wrote:On April 18 2022 18:16 gobbledydook wrote: What is NATO or the west supposed to do if Putin uses nukes? Nuking Russia seems like a really bad idea but if Putin is willing to use nukes, it seems that more sanctions aren't going to deter him. Check the Sam Gardner presentation I posted 17 h ago. I doubt he knows the current plan but it shouldn't be much different. The video is over an hour long. What is the gist of it? Nothing and ignore it apparently from what I can tell. I could be making this up, but someone will have to tell you to watch an hour long video to tell you otherwise.
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Russia is making its offensive in Donbas according to Zelenskyy, and Mariupol's defenders are left huddled in a steel mill for a final stand of sorts.
Also, a Bellingcat journalist reports: "Heavy large-caliber shelling reported at Kharkiv and Mykolaiv, as well as at most Ukrainian positions in Luhansk and Donetsk. Clearly Russia tonight has started the new stage of the war - with one front only, focused on Eastern Ukraine." [Source]
It's reported Russia has committed a significant number of its force to this attack so expect some bloody updates in the coming days and weeks. The word floating around is that this could be a make or break attack for Russia; either they start their renewed invasion here or are repelled again despite having a focused assault, which would be a poor sign for any future success.
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On April 19 2022 04:00 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On April 18 2022 18:36 Ghanburighan wrote:On April 18 2022 18:16 gobbledydook wrote: What is NATO or the west supposed to do if Putin uses nukes? Nuking Russia seems like a really bad idea but if Putin is willing to use nukes, it seems that more sanctions aren't going to deter him. Check the Sam Gardner presentation I posted 17 h ago. I doubt he knows the current plan but it shouldn't be much different. The video is over an hour long. What is the gist of it?
He’s referring to the Twitter thread, not the video.
The video can be summed up basically as this; in a long war (lasting at least 6 months), Russia is screwed. Obviously there’s more and it’s actually quite an informative listen; there’s only PowerPoint slides for visuals so you can treat it like a podcast.
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Seems to appear that Russia believes their next offensive will succeed and stalled the peace talks. The War Crimes didn't help, hopefully Russia's offensive is a major failure and they lose more ground. Meanwhile a private citizen appears t be doing more trying to push for talks that the major powers.
Billionaire Roman Abramovich has traveled to Kyiv in a bid to restart peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, which stalled after evidence emerged of Russian atrocities against civilians.
Abramovich met with Ukrainian negotiators to discuss ways of reviving the negotiations, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The Russian billionaire, who has longtime ties to President Vladimir Putin, has been acting as an informal mediator since the war began in late February, when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy asked him to get involved.
In an interview with Ukrainian online media published Saturday, Zelenskiy said the talks are at a “dead end because we will not trade our territory and our people.” He said that if Russian forces follow through on a threat to destroy the remaining Ukrainian troops fighting in Mariupol, that may “put an end” to talks.
In Russia, Abramovich “represents the side that backs a diplomatic resolution and end to the war,” he said. “Nobody can guarantee that it isn’t a game.”
A spokesperson for Abramovich said he’s not in Kyiv, declining to comment further. Ukrainian negotiator Mykhailo Podolyak declined to comment. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
After the last round of face-to-face meetings in Istanbul on March 29 -- which Abramovich attended -- there’s been little sign of progress. On Tuesday, Putin said they’re at a “dead end” and vowed to continue his invasion. Zelenskiy has said the discovery in recent weeks of evidence of war crimes by Russian troops stationed in Bucha and other towns near Kyiv has complicated prospects for the negotiations. Moscow denies its forces committed atrocities.
Since the Istanbul meeting, Russia has redeployed troops from northern Ukraine to the Donbas region in the east, preparing what’s expected to be a major new ground assault in the coming days or weeks to take more territory.
Russian troops increased shelling of Ukraine’s cities in recent days after the sinking of the flagship of its Black Sea Fleet, the cruiser Moskva. Ukraine said its missiles hit the ship, while Russia has said only that it caught fire, without explaining how. Regions including Kyiv and Lviv in Ukraine’s far west have come under fire.
Ukraine still hasn’t had an official response from the Kremlin on proposals it made to Russia at the Istanbul talks, while Moscow has repeatedly accused Kyiv of stalling. Lower-level talks have continued via video link, with scant signs of progress.
Zelenskiy has called on foreign countries to provide more weapons and to increase sanctions against Russia to strengthen his hand in the negotiations.
“I always tell all our partners with whom I discuss this issue, that the amount of support for Ukraine directly affects the restoration of peace,” Zelenskiy said Friday in an address to the nation. Russia has warned the U.S. and its allies against sending more arms, though so far without success.
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1. Russia nukes Ukrainian targets 2. NATO military intervention 3. Russia nukes NATO forces in retaliation 4. ?
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Wouldn't the retaliation to nuclear weapons be with nuclear weapons right away? Once that line is crossed I don't see why you would launch conventional military operation.
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On April 19 2022 04:00 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On April 18 2022 18:36 Ghanburighan wrote:On April 18 2022 18:16 gobbledydook wrote: What is NATO or the west supposed to do if Putin uses nukes? Nuking Russia seems like a really bad idea but if Putin is willing to use nukes, it seems that more sanctions aren't going to deter him. Check the Sam Gardner presentation I posted 17 h ago. I doubt he knows the current plan but it shouldn't be much different. The video is over an hour long. What is the gist of it?
I didn't post a video. I don't know what you're talking about.
Look at the tweet with a summary of Sam Gardner's presentation on nuking Ukraine and the West's conventional response.
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Looks like RU has started a massive multi-pronged offensive. Only one breakthrough near Kreminna so far, but there will probably be more.
UA plan looks straightforward. Resist, giving up ground when necessary, while counter-attacking from east Kharkiv towards the very narrow RU controlled zone near Kupiansk, which is both the road and railway hub supplying the roughly 22 BTG's RU is sending south near Izium. (Reports of fighting halfway from Shevchenkove to Kupiansk. via LiveUAmap)
Edit: essentially: both sides are trying to pocket the other. RU between Izium and Mariupol and UA between Kharkiv and Kupiansk.
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On April 19 2022 14:34 Starlightsun wrote: Wouldn't the retaliation to nuclear weapons be with nuclear weapons right away? Once that line is crossed I don't see why you would launch conventional military operation. We're talking about a nuclear strike on Ukraine, not NATO. A nuclear strike on Russia would be seriously escalatory. A conventional military response sends a different message: we're determined to make you lose this war but won't necessarily destroy your country.
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On April 19 2022 17:32 maybenexttime wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2022 14:34 Starlightsun wrote: Wouldn't the retaliation to nuclear weapons be with nuclear weapons right away? Once that line is crossed I don't see why you would launch conventional military operation. We're talking about a nuclear strike on Ukraine, not NATO. A nuclear strike on Russia would be seriously escalatory. A conventional military response sends a different message: we're determined to make you lose this war but won't necessarily destroy your country. The issue a lot of people, myself included, have is that the use of Nuclear weapons, tactical or not, should never be allowed and the response should be more then 'we're going to make you lose a fight you were losing anyway'. Any response that doesn't end with Putin being removed from power and thrown into an international jail awaiting his war crimes tribunal isn't good enough. And that means not just kicking Russia out of Ukraine.
If the response to a small scale tactical nuclear strike is not utter devastating and disproportion someone else may get the idea to do it again one day.
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Database tracking govt. support for Ukraine between 24.02.22 and 27.03.22. <- note that's 3 weeks ago.
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